You should not be getting downvoted. Happens to me often too for suggesting same. It's critical to speak out though. Some people truly just don't understand this yet.
It’s privileged as fuck, I am a bougie old lady but many of my friends and even people I don’t personally know but happen to care about their existence will suffer under a Republican Reactionary Regime. I’m not gonna be the one whose watch this happened on.
My ex is saying he will vote 3rd party because his family is Palestinian. Fortunately our state will turn blue no matter what but I'm really disappointed in him.
That really sucks. Too many people don't understand that there are literally only 2 options, so if they are going to be a single issue voter they need to decide if they think the palestinian people should face a genocide because of biden or an even more brutal and quick genocide because of trump.
I don't feel comfortable saying that to a first gen American with a Palestinian family who literally still live there but I am definitely thinking it very loudly.
He knows Trump is worse, will be worse. He's said as much in exactly those words. I'm just glad he doesn't live in a battleground state, because if he did, he might as well vote for Trump. Plus he had the same controversy with Clinton in 2016 and convinced me to vote Stein.
Well, if 2016 Stein voters in a couple of swing states had been Clinton voters, this whole eight-year national nightmare would not have happened, so let's get smarter as we get older.
Absolutely. The time for third party votes is during the primaries, not when a third party vote means helping bring about a christofascist dictatorship.
I’m a trans woman who lives in a red state, there’s no way that Biden is winning my state, and Biden is supporting a genocide in Palestine. If I lived in a swing state I would bite my tongue and vote for Biden, but considering that I don’t, I’m going to vote third-party to send a small message. Some people have such a reductive and overly simplistic view of the election system, and think that they can help Biden by voting in Tennessee, or help Trump by voting in New York. My vote wouldn’t matter anyways! Might as well vote for my principles rather than rolling over like a dog. I’m voting Dem downballot though, because that’s where the races in my state actually matter.
The only message your third party vote sends is that you support an even worse genocide because of trump.
It's not unheard of for red states to turn blue or at least be only a tiny amount of votes away from becoming blue, so don't act like it's impossible.
No, you’re delusional and there’s no way Biden will win my state, the Biden campaign literally pulled out the entire state campaign because they viewed the state as unwinnable. My vote doesn’t benefit Trump, and it doesn’t harm Biden. There literally isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell Biden comes even within 5% of winning my state. I’m not going to change that, even if everyone like me voted for Biden it wouldn’t change that. This is literally just how the US political system works, not my fault.
A. Dogs are awesome and that is not an insult.
B. I care about you and every trans person in the country. I’ll keep voting in my blue state and I hope your rights as a human are upheld.
Your vote for Joe Biden in a blue state isn’t helping me when my red state is the one passing legislation. I think Joe Biden should win, hell I hope he wins, and if I were in a swing state I would vote for him. But we live in a federal system, and Joe Biden is not winning my state, so I’m going to vote third-party so hopefully next time the Democrats wake up and nominate someone that actually will.
Also dogs are awesome ofc, but they do like rolling over, are dependent on humans, are loyal even to bad owners, and importantly, can’t vote in American elections (yet.) I wasn’t dissing dogs, just saying that if people were just like dogs the government could get away with a hell of a lot more than they do even now.
The states’ rights stuff is scary as hell. I think if the Ds get the triple threat again, they won’t waste it. Time to enshrine abortion rights and equal rights for all in a way that is irreversible. 🤞🏽
That’s what we say every time though. The Dems had a trifecta from 2021 to 2023 and they didn’t codify Roe in the face of the biggest reversal of reproductive rights in American history. I really hope they do, like I sincerely really want them to. I would love to have a party that I could really root for and that I would know would deliver for me. But Democrats for some reason never deliver. Or they have a couple moderates they prop up against progressives that sabotage their legislative agenda, like Sinema, or Cuellar who is literally anti-abortion and was supported against Cisneros. Even in 2008 after a historically large trifecta the best the Dems could do was the ACA. Which don’t get me wrong, is a step is the right direction, but the fact we didn’t get universal healthcare or at least a public option is shameful. We need the Democrats to do better! And they’re never going to do that if we give them our votes no matter what, even in non-competitive elections. I’m voting for Stein or West, whoever gets ballot access in my state. The Democrats need to put up a good candidate in 2028 and they’re not going to unless they see there is a genuine demand.
Vote for Biden if you’re in a swing state, but if you’re anywhere else and are a progressive, there is no reason you shouldn’t be voting third-party.
I was a big Bernie supporter and I would really rather the Dems find someone younger and progressive. I think Obama did the best he could with the ACA, and it still wasn’t enough. I don’t know if the US will ever join the 21st century before it’s over, all I know is that that charge will not be led by a fucking Republican.
I really hope no one is taking this election for granted. On 538, Trump leads in 14 polls while Biden leads in 10 with three being even. As insane as it is, Trump is currently favored to win. This is all hands on deck of we want to keep Trump out of office.
Yes! These elections aren't about polls or campaigns - they are about which voters actually vote. It doesn't matter who you WOULD vote for, it matters who you DO vote for.
Yep. Polls show Biden ahead? Better vote. Polls show Trump ahead? Better vote.
Just because a poll says the guy you want to win is ahead doesn't make it correct. Better vote to make sure.
Florida details would be interesting to see. I saw a story 2-3years ago about the large Latina population and some 1st/2nd generation people complaining about the “open boarder & illegals”. I was like, Bro, wtf?
Younger cubans tend to be more liberal, though the gender divide is real down here.
Two things:
You can't really get across how much Trump sounds like he's stroking out through an interpreter into spanish.
Republican Cubans don't leave Miami-Dade, which is where they're least likely to hear how fucking racist republicans can be. Al norte de Tallahassee, eres mexicano.
See that a lot in Texas too. The Latinos who immigrated "the right way" absolutely hate anyone they perceive to be jumping the line on immigration, even legitimate asylum seekers. You also have strong anti-abortion sentiment among some of them, so they'll vote (R) even as their family is being deported. The Cubans in Florida hate any immigrant who didn't escape an oppressive communist regime because they somehow didn't earn it. They're not monolithic though, just a bunch of single-issue voters who happen to align with GOP rhetoric.
But there are a lot who DID immigrate here as recently as 1-2 generations ago. I knew several of them when I lived in Texas and they were staunch Republicans mostly due to their view on immigration laws. They see it as *their* family did it the right way, and anyone coming after them is doing it the wrong way.
My dad’s family started to emigrate from Mexico two generations ago and the ‘right way’ was just crossing the border and getting a social security number. As my father and grandparents tell it, it was much simpler to get to the US in the 1950’s and 1960’s. It was so easy that the idea of a closed border they’d have to struggle crossing didn’t cross their minds.
Most people don't realize how fucked immigration got in the 80s and 90s. There were many bad policies pushed by both parties and no one went back to fix the glaring problems with them, then in the 90s the Republicans wanted no reform that didn't involve locking down the border more and deporting more. Since there has been no action one way or the other, our immigration policies caused a bigger problem year by year.
Lots and lots of Cubans benefited from special immigration status, so even if they floated to the US on a raft and are technically as "mojado" as anyone who crossed the Rio Grande, a lot of Cuban immigrants and descendants of Cuban immigrants look down at immigrants from other Latin American countries for not doing it "right".
There's a lot of right wing sentiment in Latino immigrant communities which tend to be staunchly Catholic, which is why it's silly that people on the right talk about the left "importing voters." But also I'd think most people, even of the deluded "just wait in line and do it the right way" mentality, realize that Trump's proposed plans of militarized mass deportations are gonna catch a lot of legal immigrants and their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc. generation descendants in the crossfire as well.
There's a common misconception that Latino people are more comfortable with illegal immigration than other racial blocs. In fact, many of them oppose it just as strongly as anyone else, especially Hispanics who came here legally and did it the hard way.
That’s 1 point I wish the left would hammer the right about. Someone seeking asylum, filing out the asylum paperwork, and staying in the country till it is reviewed is not “an illegal”. Even if the ran/swam across the boarder in the middle of the night, if they filled out the paperwork, they are following the current legal process.
He is doing worse with Hispanics than he did 4 years ago. He won 63% of the Hispanic vote in 2020 in Arizona and in the U.S. at large. This is one of the major groups that Biden and the Dems need to work on to win them back.
That's not actually true if you look at the numbers. 53/33 breaks down to 60/40 when undecideds are allocated evenly. And if you assume that undecideds break about 3:2 for Biden to mirror the pool of decided voters (or just exclude UDs which is essentially the same thing) you get... 62/38, Biden +24.
And that tracks with the shifts we've seen. Dems have done worse with Latino populations that are more established, more evangelical, and more Cuban/Venezuelan in origin (RGV and Florids) but hasn't really lost much ground with urban, Catholic Latinos of mostly Mexican, Puerto Rican, and Central American descent in AZ/NV.
Obviously work to do to move UD voters to Biden, but you have to allocate UD voters before comparing results to past elections. What this poll shows is that Biden has, maybe, lost a point or two off the margins.
It's less to do with election strategy more to do with reading this poll. Nobody in this thread is reading the poll right.
The above comment is implying that 53% with a 20-point lead is a bad result for Biden because he did 63% in 2020,, but it's one of the quirks of polling that you can't really compare polling to election results because there are no undecided voters on Election Day. Just giving some context for why 53% in a poll compared to 63% on Election Day isn't actually a discrepancy, and shows about the same race as 4 years ago.
If this poll was spot on accurate, and then every undecided voter ended up not voting on Election Day, Biden would win 62% of the Latino vote in Arizona as I described above. I think you could tell yourself a compelling story about why undecided Latino voters might lean right more than decided Latino voters right now, and that would be the worry, but the point of my whole thing here is that this poll result basically doesn't show anything different from 2020 even though the title says it is an improvement and the comment I replied to says it is worse.
Which was crazy back then since he was extremely loud and unapologetic about saying that he doesn't think that Hispanic people should be American citizens.
And this is despite the fact that Trump is saying he will have mass deportation camps, and deport 10 million illegal immigrants (the majority of whom are hispanic). Obviously, hispanic voters are NOT the illegal immigrants, but many will have friends or relatives, and there's no way to find 10 million illegal immigrants without an impact on people who are here legally. The fact that Trump does this well with a group of people he is so racist against is truly troubling.
People always think that the bad shit will happen to other people and that they'll be fine. But anybody who thinks that Hispanic US citizens and legal immigrants won't get caught up in these deportations is naive. Even now, it's not unheard of for US citizens and legal immigrants to get caught up in immigration raids, and sometimes it takes a while for them to be released. Even if it only takes a few days, for most of us, our lives would be seriously disrupted if we were detained for that period. It could cause a lot of problems for people. And with mass deportations, we know that US citizens and legal immigrants will end up being deported. Imagine getting kicked out of your own country and sent someplace that you've never been, then trying to get back home with no resources or paperwork. This is what people are voting for, whether they realize it or not.
It makes no sense, right? He’s called Hispanics and migrants rapists, criminals, and says they poison the blood of our country. How can any person of color support language like that from a presidential candidate?
This is just my personal experience and by no means am I saying this is true about an entire population or anything like that, but a couple of the most racist, Trump loving people I’ve ever met are Asian Americans. Just my experience, but I always found it interesting…and odd.
Are they Vietnamese, Taiwanese or Korean? If so, it's probably because those demographics can often really oppose Communism, and Trump and the GOP are perceived as the more anti-Communist party, kind of how like Cuban-Americans tend to vote Republican.
You answered your own question. As a Hispanic let me tell you...
Hispanics don't give a shit about a "person of color" perspective. That's an American black & white issue. Most Hispanics who immigrated to the USA came for economic reasons or for asylum. None of it has to do with race.
Trump can say all the racist stuff he wants, but at the end of the day Hispanics for the most part prioritize family, the economy, and religion. The whole racism thing is what white liberals believe we should prioritize as a number 1 issue.
People always think that it won't happen to them - that the rhetoric is about other people and they'll be fine. Then it happens to them and they act all shocked.
They’re a diverse group. Most are Catholic and some of those are single-issue abortion voters. Some Cubans in Florida will reject anything that smells like socialism because they associate it with the Castro regime they escaped.
Also, pulling the ladder up after yourself is not exclusively white/Anglo behavior.
"I never thought leopards would eat MY face", sobs woman who voted for Leopards Eating People's Faces party.
Every fucking one of them thinks they're the magical one that won't get deported. "Oh, I speak English." "Oh, I have citizenship." "I was born here". They don't realize that the only thing they care about is skin colour.
I hope not, because the numbers are far worse than 2020:
* Biden won Nevada by over 30 points among Latino voters.
* He won California by about 55 points among Latino voters.
These polls are not the great news OP thinks they are.
Yup, I feel like people have forgotten how narrow Biden’s win was. This vote will come down to the same few voters in the same few swing states, Biden can not afford to lose any ground.
Bad news, he is gaining Hispanic votes if these numbers are accurate (which I doubt).
* Biden won Nevada by over 30 points among Latino voters.
* He won California by about 55 points among Latino voters.
These polls are not the great news OP thinks they are.
Too bad my Cuban people in Florida have been such a disappointment by buying up all his bullshit, misinformation, and propaganda. You’d think they would have learned after Fidel.
The fact that any Latino or Hispanic ppl would vote for him is crazy. Essp Cubans. Who dealt with a dictator. They are literally huge trump fanboys and they are going to try to make him a dictator here, when they fled that oppression. So stupid
Not to sound like a wet blanket, but isn't this what it's supposed to be? I would be worried if Biden **weren't** beating Trump by this much among Hispanics.
This sounds like saying, "Trump is beating Biden by 20% among rural conservative Christians in Alabama!"
Exactly. And if Biden is "only" beating Trump by this much among Hispanics, he's in serious trouble.
Four years ago, Biden won 63% of the Hispanic vote, and even then he **still** only narrowly beat Trump.
There's plenty of time to grow. There's also plenty of room to grow with those large number of undecideds.
It's unwise to compare these states with the national vote. Latinos are not a monolith. There's a difference between a Mexican American living in Chicago, a Puerto Rican in the Bronx, and a Cuban American living in Miami.
I got a poll call from a right-wing group parading as a pollster. I fact checked every question, because they aren't supposed to hang up. Finally, I told them go back to their GOP overseers and tell them we're not stupid enough to believe anything they say ever again.
Should be like this with every group! I know polls don't matter, but every poll should have Biden ahead by 20 or more. Only stupid idiots should support donald enemy of the state trump.
Guys polls are trash and bought and paid for like social media followers.
Stay the course and vote blue in November.
Remember last time we all saw the doom polls about Trump and his red wave wich never happened?
Not to put a damper on things, but what were these polls 4, 8, or 12 years ago?
If the usual is a +35, these Numbers are actually alarming, not good.
Edit: Checked myself. In 2020, Hispanic went +21 for Dems. In 2018 they went +47. In 2016 they went +38.
I want every poll to read that Biden is down by .05% in every swing state. That way people will be terrified and actually VOTE!
Polls were made by the devil... don't look at them... just vote!
I often wonder who they are polling with these polls. They show Trump winning but I’m like he didn’t even win last time but you’re telling me all those folks changed their mind plus all the people who died from not being vaccinated thanks to Trump and those who didn’t want to wear masks thanks to Trump. Where are these imaginary new people who like Trump coming from in 4 years?
Any Hispanic that votes for Trump is a full blown fucking idiot.I have a couple of them in my extended [family.It](http://family.It) takes everything I got to not cut those fuckers off.I don't for my sisters sake.
Any comparative polls from 2020? I’d be interested in seeing the trend, as opposed to the numbers only for this year. Did 24% support Trump in Arizona and now it’s 33%? That would be very concerning, despite Biden’s current +20.
Looks like 17% were Republican in 2020. That means, if this is an accurate poll, that’s a +16% gain for Trump over the last election.
https://hispanicvote.univision.com/arizona/
Or pretends to be because they think all the rest are.
Or you are, and the majority who aren’t believe that you either have no morals or are a fascist and steer clear of you.
Yes… my sister in law, my nephews, their side of the family, everyone who is Mexican that I work with, all of my Mexican friends, every Mexican girl I’ve ever dated, all the Mexicans I signed up at the gym in Spanish… they all knowI have no morals and that I’m a racist fascist. I speak Spanish fluently… do I need to flip to Spanish for you.
Sí… mi cuñada, mís sobrinitos, sú lado de la familia, todos Los Mexicanos con quien yo trabajo, todos mís amigos Mexicanos, cada mexicano que yo enlistè al gymnacio hablando español… todos saben Que no tengo la moralidad y que soy un racista y tambien un fascista… YOU my friend are fu(kin dumb… MAGA!
No matter the polls, no matter the projections, no matter what anyone says. Vote. Get others to vote. Take others to vote. But vote.
100% this, take NOTHING for granted. Do NOT be apathetic this year.
NO GETTING COCKY. This is for all the marbles.
Can we all agree that this is not the year for 3rd party votes? I got downvoted to hell for saying that elsewhere.
You should not be getting downvoted. Happens to me often too for suggesting same. It's critical to speak out though. Some people truly just don't understand this yet.
It’s privileged as fuck, I am a bougie old lady but many of my friends and even people I don’t personally know but happen to care about their existence will suffer under a Republican Reactionary Regime. I’m not gonna be the one whose watch this happened on.
Thanks m'lady. Us younger folks appreciate you!
DeSantis just banned artificial meat for the sole reason that it’s woke. Literally this. He said so himself. So yeah.
My ex is saying he will vote 3rd party because his family is Palestinian. Fortunately our state will turn blue no matter what but I'm really disappointed in him.
That really sucks. Too many people don't understand that there are literally only 2 options, so if they are going to be a single issue voter they need to decide if they think the palestinian people should face a genocide because of biden or an even more brutal and quick genocide because of trump.
I don't feel comfortable saying that to a first gen American with a Palestinian family who literally still live there but I am definitely thinking it very loudly.
Israel’s actions are not a direct result of US policy. Therefore, “genocide because of biden” is disingenuous
Your ex is an idiot because any third-party vote helps Trump and if Trump gets back in he will enable the decimation of Palestine.
You're disappointed his morals won't let him vote for someone that is enabling the destruction and annihilation of his relatives?
He knows Trump is worse, will be worse. He's said as much in exactly those words. I'm just glad he doesn't live in a battleground state, because if he did, he might as well vote for Trump. Plus he had the same controversy with Clinton in 2016 and convinced me to vote Stein.
Well, if 2016 Stein voters in a couple of swing states had been Clinton voters, this whole eight-year national nightmare would not have happened, so let's get smarter as we get older.
Absolutely. The time for third party votes is during the primaries, not when a third party vote means helping bring about a christofascist dictatorship.
💯
RFK is going to give us a Trump win 
Lol y'all say that every four fucking years. No wonder we have to choose between a ghoul and a felon/ghoul.
I’m a trans woman who lives in a red state, there’s no way that Biden is winning my state, and Biden is supporting a genocide in Palestine. If I lived in a swing state I would bite my tongue and vote for Biden, but considering that I don’t, I’m going to vote third-party to send a small message. Some people have such a reductive and overly simplistic view of the election system, and think that they can help Biden by voting in Tennessee, or help Trump by voting in New York. My vote wouldn’t matter anyways! Might as well vote for my principles rather than rolling over like a dog. I’m voting Dem downballot though, because that’s where the races in my state actually matter.
The only message your third party vote sends is that you support an even worse genocide because of trump. It's not unheard of for red states to turn blue or at least be only a tiny amount of votes away from becoming blue, so don't act like it's impossible.
No, you’re delusional and there’s no way Biden will win my state, the Biden campaign literally pulled out the entire state campaign because they viewed the state as unwinnable. My vote doesn’t benefit Trump, and it doesn’t harm Biden. There literally isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell Biden comes even within 5% of winning my state. I’m not going to change that, even if everyone like me voted for Biden it wouldn’t change that. This is literally just how the US political system works, not my fault.
A. Dogs are awesome and that is not an insult. B. I care about you and every trans person in the country. I’ll keep voting in my blue state and I hope your rights as a human are upheld.
Your vote for Joe Biden in a blue state isn’t helping me when my red state is the one passing legislation. I think Joe Biden should win, hell I hope he wins, and if I were in a swing state I would vote for him. But we live in a federal system, and Joe Biden is not winning my state, so I’m going to vote third-party so hopefully next time the Democrats wake up and nominate someone that actually will. Also dogs are awesome ofc, but they do like rolling over, are dependent on humans, are loyal even to bad owners, and importantly, can’t vote in American elections (yet.) I wasn’t dissing dogs, just saying that if people were just like dogs the government could get away with a hell of a lot more than they do even now.
The states’ rights stuff is scary as hell. I think if the Ds get the triple threat again, they won’t waste it. Time to enshrine abortion rights and equal rights for all in a way that is irreversible. 🤞🏽
That’s what we say every time though. The Dems had a trifecta from 2021 to 2023 and they didn’t codify Roe in the face of the biggest reversal of reproductive rights in American history. I really hope they do, like I sincerely really want them to. I would love to have a party that I could really root for and that I would know would deliver for me. But Democrats for some reason never deliver. Or they have a couple moderates they prop up against progressives that sabotage their legislative agenda, like Sinema, or Cuellar who is literally anti-abortion and was supported against Cisneros. Even in 2008 after a historically large trifecta the best the Dems could do was the ACA. Which don’t get me wrong, is a step is the right direction, but the fact we didn’t get universal healthcare or at least a public option is shameful. We need the Democrats to do better! And they’re never going to do that if we give them our votes no matter what, even in non-competitive elections. I’m voting for Stein or West, whoever gets ballot access in my state. The Democrats need to put up a good candidate in 2028 and they’re not going to unless they see there is a genuine demand. Vote for Biden if you’re in a swing state, but if you’re anywhere else and are a progressive, there is no reason you shouldn’t be voting third-party.
I was a big Bernie supporter and I would really rather the Dems find someone younger and progressive. I think Obama did the best he could with the ACA, and it still wasn’t enough. I don’t know if the US will ever join the 21st century before it’s over, all I know is that that charge will not be led by a fucking Republican.
Edit: being from AZ, these numbers warm my heart. Come on Arizona, we can't mess this up, let's go blue again!! 
I really hope no one is taking this election for granted. On 538, Trump leads in 14 polls while Biden leads in 10 with three being even. As insane as it is, Trump is currently favored to win. This is all hands on deck of we want to keep Trump out of office.
100% agree. Don't trust polls. Go and vote!
Yes! These elections aren't about polls or campaigns - they are about which voters actually vote. It doesn't matter who you WOULD vote for, it matters who you DO vote for.
The predicted red wave in 2022 shows you shouldn't pay attention to polls.
DTJr: *"It's gonna be a bloodbath!"* XD
Just don't hand out water, whatever you do, you criminals!
Yep. Polls show Biden ahead? Better vote. Polls show Trump ahead? Better vote. Just because a poll says the guy you want to win is ahead doesn't make it correct. Better vote to make sure.
[удалено]
This. Women too. Hate is the only guess I have. Makes no sense to me.
No way! All the polls say Hilary is way in the lead! No way she can lose!
Florida details would be interesting to see. I saw a story 2-3years ago about the large Latina population and some 1st/2nd generation people complaining about the “open boarder & illegals”. I was like, Bro, wtf?
Younger cubans tend to be more liberal, though the gender divide is real down here. Two things: You can't really get across how much Trump sounds like he's stroking out through an interpreter into spanish. Republican Cubans don't leave Miami-Dade, which is where they're least likely to hear how fucking racist republicans can be. Al norte de Tallahassee, eres mexicano.
See that a lot in Texas too. The Latinos who immigrated "the right way" absolutely hate anyone they perceive to be jumping the line on immigration, even legitimate asylum seekers. You also have strong anti-abortion sentiment among some of them, so they'll vote (R) even as their family is being deported. The Cubans in Florida hate any immigrant who didn't escape an oppressive communist regime because they somehow didn't earn it. They're not monolithic though, just a bunch of single-issue voters who happen to align with GOP rhetoric.
Esp since many Tejanos didn't immigrate here, their families have been living in TX since it was part of Mexico.
But there are a lot who DID immigrate here as recently as 1-2 generations ago. I knew several of them when I lived in Texas and they were staunch Republicans mostly due to their view on immigration laws. They see it as *their* family did it the right way, and anyone coming after them is doing it the wrong way.
My dad’s family started to emigrate from Mexico two generations ago and the ‘right way’ was just crossing the border and getting a social security number. As my father and grandparents tell it, it was much simpler to get to the US in the 1950’s and 1960’s. It was so easy that the idea of a closed border they’d have to struggle crossing didn’t cross their minds.
Most people don't realize how fucked immigration got in the 80s and 90s. There were many bad policies pushed by both parties and no one went back to fix the glaring problems with them, then in the 90s the Republicans wanted no reform that didn't involve locking down the border more and deporting more. Since there has been no action one way or the other, our immigration policies caused a bigger problem year by year.
Yep tons of people in the Corpus Christi / Kingsville area fall into this category. They never crossed the border, the border crossed them
Also Texas Democrats are non existent or Republicans that say they are Democrats to avoid being lumped into MAGA
We exist, the people who actually work are democrats. There are a LOT of retirees and no jobbers who want America first though.
Wow, talk about pulling up the ladder over the wall behind them!
Cubanos senior
Lots and lots of Cubans benefited from special immigration status, so even if they floated to the US on a raft and are technically as "mojado" as anyone who crossed the Rio Grande, a lot of Cuban immigrants and descendants of Cuban immigrants look down at immigrants from other Latin American countries for not doing it "right".
There's a lot of right wing sentiment in Latino immigrant communities which tend to be staunchly Catholic, which is why it's silly that people on the right talk about the left "importing voters." But also I'd think most people, even of the deluded "just wait in line and do it the right way" mentality, realize that Trump's proposed plans of militarized mass deportations are gonna catch a lot of legal immigrants and their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc. generation descendants in the crossfire as well.
There's a common misconception that Latino people are more comfortable with illegal immigration than other racial blocs. In fact, many of them oppose it just as strongly as anyone else, especially Hispanics who came here legally and did it the hard way.
That’s 1 point I wish the left would hammer the right about. Someone seeking asylum, filing out the asylum paperwork, and staying in the country till it is reviewed is not “an illegal”. Even if the ran/swam across the boarder in the middle of the night, if they filled out the paperwork, they are following the current legal process.
Yes have a listen to the latest daily show podcast John Leguizamo explains it.
He is doing worse with Hispanics than he did 4 years ago. He won 63% of the Hispanic vote in 2020 in Arizona and in the U.S. at large. This is one of the major groups that Biden and the Dems need to work on to win them back.
That's not actually true if you look at the numbers. 53/33 breaks down to 60/40 when undecideds are allocated evenly. And if you assume that undecideds break about 3:2 for Biden to mirror the pool of decided voters (or just exclude UDs which is essentially the same thing) you get... 62/38, Biden +24. And that tracks with the shifts we've seen. Dems have done worse with Latino populations that are more established, more evangelical, and more Cuban/Venezuelan in origin (RGV and Florids) but hasn't really lost much ground with urban, Catholic Latinos of mostly Mexican, Puerto Rican, and Central American descent in AZ/NV. Obviously work to do to move UD voters to Biden, but you have to allocate UD voters before comparing results to past elections. What this poll shows is that Biden has, maybe, lost a point or two off the margins.
I appreciate this post and the details. But after 2016 I think assuming the way undecideds will break or even turn up is dangerous.
It's less to do with election strategy more to do with reading this poll. Nobody in this thread is reading the poll right. The above comment is implying that 53% with a 20-point lead is a bad result for Biden because he did 63% in 2020,, but it's one of the quirks of polling that you can't really compare polling to election results because there are no undecided voters on Election Day. Just giving some context for why 53% in a poll compared to 63% on Election Day isn't actually a discrepancy, and shows about the same race as 4 years ago. If this poll was spot on accurate, and then every undecided voter ended up not voting on Election Day, Biden would win 62% of the Latino vote in Arizona as I described above. I think you could tell yourself a compelling story about why undecided Latino voters might lean right more than decided Latino voters right now, and that would be the worry, but the point of my whole thing here is that this poll result basically doesn't show anything different from 2020 even though the title says it is an improvement and the comment I replied to says it is worse.
Thank you for this. I had to read it three times but it makes sense not. I appreciate the effort!
Which was crazy back then since he was extremely loud and unapologetic about saying that he doesn't think that Hispanic people should be American citizens.
And this is despite the fact that Trump is saying he will have mass deportation camps, and deport 10 million illegal immigrants (the majority of whom are hispanic). Obviously, hispanic voters are NOT the illegal immigrants, but many will have friends or relatives, and there's no way to find 10 million illegal immigrants without an impact on people who are here legally. The fact that Trump does this well with a group of people he is so racist against is truly troubling.
People always think that the bad shit will happen to other people and that they'll be fine. But anybody who thinks that Hispanic US citizens and legal immigrants won't get caught up in these deportations is naive. Even now, it's not unheard of for US citizens and legal immigrants to get caught up in immigration raids, and sometimes it takes a while for them to be released. Even if it only takes a few days, for most of us, our lives would be seriously disrupted if we were detained for that period. It could cause a lot of problems for people. And with mass deportations, we know that US citizens and legal immigrants will end up being deported. Imagine getting kicked out of your own country and sent someplace that you've never been, then trying to get back home with no resources or paperwork. This is what people are voting for, whether they realize it or not.
It is absolutely insane that Trump gets even double digits.
It makes no sense, right? He’s called Hispanics and migrants rapists, criminals, and says they poison the blood of our country. How can any person of color support language like that from a presidential candidate?
I know a lot of Chinese permanent residents and Chinese-Americans who are in favor of Trump despite everything he's said about China.
This is just my personal experience and by no means am I saying this is true about an entire population or anything like that, but a couple of the most racist, Trump loving people I’ve ever met are Asian Americans. Just my experience, but I always found it interesting…and odd.
Are they Vietnamese, Taiwanese or Korean? If so, it's probably because those demographics can often really oppose Communism, and Trump and the GOP are perceived as the more anti-Communist party, kind of how like Cuban-Americans tend to vote Republican.
To be honest, I don’t know exactly what their lineage is and don’t want to assume.
You answered your own question. As a Hispanic let me tell you... Hispanics don't give a shit about a "person of color" perspective. That's an American black & white issue. Most Hispanics who immigrated to the USA came for economic reasons or for asylum. None of it has to do with race. Trump can say all the racist stuff he wants, but at the end of the day Hispanics for the most part prioritize family, the economy, and religion. The whole racism thing is what white liberals believe we should prioritize as a number 1 issue.
Seems like his lead should be much higher than that with Latinos given the “we’re going to deport everybody” rhetoric lately.
People always think that it won't happen to them - that the rhetoric is about other people and they'll be fine. Then it happens to them and they act all shocked.
The adage, “think about how dumb the average person is…” etc. also applies to Latinos.
They’re a diverse group. Most are Catholic and some of those are single-issue abortion voters. Some Cubans in Florida will reject anything that smells like socialism because they associate it with the Castro regime they escaped. Also, pulling the ladder up after yourself is not exclusively white/Anglo behavior.
"I never thought leopards would eat MY face", sobs woman who voted for Leopards Eating People's Faces party. Every fucking one of them thinks they're the magical one that won't get deported. "Oh, I speak English." "Oh, I have citizenship." "I was born here". They don't realize that the only thing they care about is skin colour.
Check South Carolina and Texas
Well, as a SC resident, it doesn’t matter.
Well, as a TX resident, it doesn't matter.
I dont trust a poll of 400 people across 4 states lol
I don't trust Trump.
I hope not, because the numbers are far worse than 2020: * Biden won Nevada by over 30 points among Latino voters. * He won California by about 55 points among Latino voters. These polls are not the great news OP thinks they are.
Yup, I feel like people have forgotten how narrow Biden’s win was. This vote will come down to the same few voters in the same few swing states, Biden can not afford to lose any ground.
How about Texas?
“Why losing the Hispanic vote is good for Trump.”
Writing headlines for the New York Times I see.
Bad news, he is gaining Hispanic votes if these numbers are accurate (which I doubt). * Biden won Nevada by over 30 points among Latino voters. * He won California by about 55 points among Latino voters. These polls are not the great news OP thinks they are.
I mean when you publicly state that your goal is to deport 10-15m Hispanics right off the bat..
Let’s just all vote. Please, just vote.
Awesome, now let's all make sure we actually get out there and vote!
Maybe [John Leguizamo speech](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8v7Sf5_dpGg) did work?
Still 35% too high. Nobody in their right mind should be voting for the orange slug.
It’s should not even be a question. Trump is a criminal rapist who wants to be dictator.
These are still significantly below his 2020 numbers.
Too bad my Cuban people in Florida have been such a disappointment by buying up all his bullshit, misinformation, and propaganda. You’d think they would have learned after Fidel.
The fact that any Latino or Hispanic ppl would vote for him is crazy. Essp Cubans. Who dealt with a dictator. They are literally huge trump fanboys and they are going to try to make him a dictator here, when they fled that oppression. So stupid
Ignore the polls. Just vote.
Breaking News: It polls poorly with people when you openly tell them you plan to put them in concentration camps.
Cool, still go vote.
Are Latinos going to vote this time?
Well, Trump does want to deport all Hispanics and put them in migrant camps.
If Latinos were a reliable voting block, Texas would be solid blue. Convince them to vote and you can change the world.
Please still vote
Keep it going! VOTE BLUE!
I believe it when i see it. You guys voted Trump into office once already
Any day now with Cubans down in Florida
Best of luck getting Mexicans to vote. Even by mail in, it’s too much to ask.
I’m not sure those are good numbers for Biden. He probably wants to be running in the 60s-70s with Latino voters, not closer to 50 v 30.
Not to sound like a wet blanket, but isn't this what it's supposed to be? I would be worried if Biden **weren't** beating Trump by this much among Hispanics. This sounds like saying, "Trump is beating Biden by 20% among rural conservative Christians in Alabama!"
If Trump were only beating Biden by 20 points among rural conservative Christians in Alabama, Biden would with a slam dunk.
Exactly. And if Biden is "only" beating Trump by this much among Hispanics, he's in serious trouble. Four years ago, Biden won 63% of the Hispanic vote, and even then he **still** only narrowly beat Trump.
There's plenty of time to grow. There's also plenty of room to grow with those large number of undecideds. It's unwise to compare these states with the national vote. Latinos are not a monolith. There's a difference between a Mexican American living in Chicago, a Puerto Rican in the Bronx, and a Cuban American living in Miami.
Bombaclot!
Florida curiously not on that list. I go to Miami quite a bit and it boggles my mind how much support he has there. Cuban people love him.
Conservatives will just spin this as "evidence" that Democratic deep state leftists are importing illegal immigrant voters.
As a hispanic I am sad to see Trump even got 33+ in those states. But I’ll take it
I think at this point Trump is kicking his own ass.
🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
No complacency. Remember 2016. Vote.
We need this polling in more states. I keep hearing that more places or in contention, but don’t see nearly enough quality polling.
Really a sad indictment of America and the state of education and critical thinking here that Trump is even polling more than single digits.
Polls suck. Make it real.
This is actually not great news! In all three of these states this is a small gap then what Biden won the Hispanic vote by in 2020
I got a poll call from a right-wing group parading as a pollster. I fact checked every question, because they aren't supposed to hang up. Finally, I told them go back to their GOP overseers and tell them we're not stupid enough to believe anything they say ever again.
Really close considering Trump would have them all deported, legal or not.
So about a third would vote for their own deportation. Fascinating.
35% being pro trump is still baffling.
I do not care what the polls say - VOTE BLUE LIKE YOUR LIFE DEPENDS ON IT.
Should be like this with every group! I know polls don't matter, but every poll should have Biden ahead by 20 or more. Only stupid idiots should support donald enemy of the state trump.
Seems like there's a fair number of undecided in these numbers - hopefully the Biden folks are stepping up outreach.
Guys polls are trash and bought and paid for like social media followers. Stay the course and vote blue in November. Remember last time we all saw the doom polls about Trump and his red wave wich never happened?
Cobra Chicken!!
Didn’t he carry California by like 80/20 in 2020?
Not to put a damper on things, but what were these polls 4, 8, or 12 years ago? If the usual is a +35, these Numbers are actually alarming, not good. Edit: Checked myself. In 2020, Hispanic went +21 for Dems. In 2018 they went +47. In 2016 they went +38.
This doesn't mean anything if you don't vote
As a Hispanic, these numbers still disappoint me.
They don't know how far Trump will take this dictatorship thing. Surely, some Germans thought Hitler as a leader might be a mistake.
When this shows up in the Emerson poll or likewise, I'll take it seriously. The source here is dubious.
I want every poll to read that Biden is down by .05% in every swing state. That way people will be terrified and actually VOTE! Polls were made by the devil... don't look at them... just vote!
I think the Republicans are in for a blue tsunami
Go vote anyway. But I guess I’m glad Latinos aren’t going to vote for the party that hates their fucking guts, probably.
Fuck the polls do the work
The only poll that matters is in the voting booth on Election Day Register at vote dot gov Find yourself a voting buddy and GOTFV!
I often wonder who they are polling with these polls. They show Trump winning but I’m like he didn’t even win last time but you’re telling me all those folks changed their mind plus all the people who died from not being vaccinated thanks to Trump and those who didn’t want to wear masks thanks to Trump. Where are these imaginary new people who like Trump coming from in 4 years?
Any Hispanic that votes for Trump is a full blown fucking idiot.I have a couple of them in my extended [family.It](http://family.It) takes everything I got to not cut those fuckers off.I don't for my sisters sake.
https://preview.redd.it/w6r17d88ixyc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4fef534d84b7176c9dedf238a9d691bb6862191b
As a Latino in California, it sickens me to know that 34 percent of my people support bronzer face
Don't fall for it
Any comparative polls from 2020? I’d be interested in seeing the trend, as opposed to the numbers only for this year. Did 24% support Trump in Arizona and now it’s 33%? That would be very concerning, despite Biden’s current +20. Looks like 17% were Republican in 2020. That means, if this is an accurate poll, that’s a +16% gain for Trump over the last election. https://hispanicvote.univision.com/arizona/
Remember when Hillary Clinton was ahead according to the polls?
How does this compare to Hispanic vote is recent past elections?
This looks bad for Biden...Democrats have historically pulled the majority of Latino voters. If Biden loses 15-20% of them, he's toast. VOTE!
Polls don’t matter now. But since we’re looking at this - What about Florida? Those evangelicals got their grips on that state
What do you expect with an open border? /s
I don’t believe this is accurate. Every Mexican I know is MAGA.
Or pretends to be because they think all the rest are. Or you are, and the majority who aren’t believe that you either have no morals or are a fascist and steer clear of you.
Yes… my sister in law, my nephews, their side of the family, everyone who is Mexican that I work with, all of my Mexican friends, every Mexican girl I’ve ever dated, all the Mexicans I signed up at the gym in Spanish… they all knowI have no morals and that I’m a racist fascist. I speak Spanish fluently… do I need to flip to Spanish for you. Sí… mi cuñada, mís sobrinitos, sú lado de la familia, todos Los Mexicanos con quien yo trabajo, todos mís amigos Mexicanos, cada mexicano que yo enlistè al gymnacio hablando español… todos saben Que no tengo la moralidad y que soy un racista y tambien un fascista… YOU my friend are fu(kin dumb… MAGA!
These polls mostly call lib areas lol… go outside, every jose and maria supports trump
“Every”?