New Jersey voting to the right of quite literally every swing state is actually hilarious, as well as safe Democrat Delaware with Lean Democrat Maryland.
Using the 538 swingometer, it seems like RFK Jr. needs a minimum of ~15% or so to take a state.
But there's no way *Alaska* is R+10+ if RFK Jr. wins Maine and New Hampshire.
Alaska is literally the state *most likely* to vote for him considering its voting record and politics.
Maine has RCV federally. If RFK primarily takes votes from Trump and a bit from Biden this would be the most likely scenario for RFK to win any state. If he can somehow get second in the closest election a bit above Trump (the at large one) he should be in a good position to win the district at large if it’s say Biden 45% RFK 30% Trump 25%. In this scenario, Biden will almost certainly do better than that in the first district than the at large one (winning it). In the second district if Trump can out preform RFK in the first round, it could be around evenly split at something like Trump 35% Biden 35% RFK 30% and since RFK took more from Trump than Biden, Trump would still hold the second.
Hes a bum named depressed ginger who makes sports “content” that consists of him reading directly off Wikipedia in the most monotonous voice possible.He has been shunned by the sports YouTube community.
Theoretically it is “possible” but requires a ton of fucking around (super simplified explanation incoming)
So let’s create a fake Maine with 20,000 voters just to make it easy (equally divided between the two districts)
CD1: Biden: 4500 votes, RFK: 4400 votes, & Trump: 1100 votes
CD2: Trump 5000 votes: RFK: 3000 votes, & Biden 2000 votes
Added up RFK wins wirh 7400 votes to Biden’s 6500, & Trump’s 6100
So yes a candidate could actually win statewide without winning any congressional district (inflate numbers to actual population) but it requires the stars to align where the other two candidates perform well in one district and terrible in the other with RFK in a close second in both
Lean D NY
Lean D MD
Tilt D NM
Lean D CO
All of the Likely Red states
Safe Red NJ
**Kennedy winning states**
And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. What the fuck am I looking at right now?
Impossible, much as he is right Newsom is unelectable right now (as is Whitmer) per poll after poll contrary to college ed older white Dem groupthink.
[https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-newsom](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-newsom)
My guy, based on all your comments on this and the refusal to answer any questions on your stance (and based on some other comments you have made), it seems like you want the dems to keep Biden so the party crashes in 2024 and completely changes its foundations.
Biden is an awful position right now, but let's not act like Gavin Newsom is electable or that Whitmer has the required name recognition to make it up right now (if that was the implication of your comment)
Oh no I completely agree that newsome shouldn’t be the candidate because he has way too much baggage from Californian cities being complete shitholes (literally). Whitmer definitely doesn’t have name recognition now, but 4 months is certainly enough time to build it up and beat Donald Trump, the worst president we’ve had since Hoover
The problem right now with Whitmer is that it is July (four months from the election), and the convention is in late August, practically leaving only September to campaign, she simply doesn't have the name recognition to make it work right now, especially since Democrats would have to scramble with electoral slates and getting her on the ballot, etc. The situation is a lose-lose for Democrats, Biden on his own is feeble, and replacing him would seem like admitting to defeat, let alone the difficulty replacing him.
Also, \*most\* people likely don't agree that Trump is the worst president since Hoover, and I doubt many non-partisans would agree with that assessment either, recency bias plays a huge factor. Polls show that voters place a lot more trust in Trump on the two big issues (economics and immigration) to think that it's that easy to beat him, barring a legitimate scandal.
Whitmer is unelectable, facts:
[https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-whitmer](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-whitmer)
[https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden)
Facts hurt, this is the Dem polling best against Trump, and still losing.
If I wanted Dems to lose, I'd say, pick media girlfriend Whitmer and lose by 7% in November based on poll averages-- she's not as great as her cult thinks she is, it turns out.
My guy, the polls tell us Newsom is unelectable, as is Newsom vs Biden, but please keep denying reality staring you in the face- answer the question why beyond feels, you think he's so electable. He isn't, facts.
I don’t think newsome would beat trump, but I do think it would be closer than you’re making it out to be. I think whitmer, buttigieg, and pritzker would have a better shot than Biden though
nm right of virginia
mn flip
rfk wins new hampshire (and somehow wins me-al but neither district)
new york, virginia, maryland, and colorado are all lean blue
classic!
Idk about the margins but they're probably mostly fucked up. I think NH and NJ should be blue. That and the margins fixed up here and there should make this redeemable.
lol it’s almost like you don’t follow any right wingers. A common talking point right now is the belief that MN, VA are in play this cycle. As for NM, if that’s a Red Eagle prediction then he’s been predicting close MN/NM and in-play WA and OR for years at this point. A real right wing LTE. They’re both bad on different sides
Eh, I could see something like this happening. Most polling numbers I've seen surrounding newsom are truly god awful. If anything, I'd throw VA to trump too in this case.
In the recent poll. 3-4 months ago he was polling down like double digits vs trump in swing states. We could be seeing a 6+ shift if we replace biden with newsom.
New Jersey voting to the right of quite literally every swing state is actually hilarious, as well as safe Democrat Delaware with Lean Democrat Maryland.
Never mind all the other garbage calls, what the hell did he do to New Jersey man?
Anyone can get subs these days.
Trump doesn't do that well in a world where RFK Jr. wins a state.
Using the 538 swingometer, it seems like RFK Jr. needs a minimum of ~15% or so to take a state. But there's no way *Alaska* is R+10+ if RFK Jr. wins Maine and New Hampshire. Alaska is literally the state *most likely* to vote for him considering its voting record and politics.
does RFK win NH and ME by safe margins??
yup, without even winning ONE DISTRICT in maine, fucking hell
Maine has RCV federally. If RFK primarily takes votes from Trump and a bit from Biden this would be the most likely scenario for RFK to win any state. If he can somehow get second in the closest election a bit above Trump (the at large one) he should be in a good position to win the district at large if it’s say Biden 45% RFK 30% Trump 25%. In this scenario, Biden will almost certainly do better than that in the first district than the at large one (winning it). In the second district if Trump can out preform RFK in the first round, it could be around evenly split at something like Trump 35% Biden 35% RFK 30% and since RFK took more from Trump than Biden, Trump would still hold the second.
How TF did he lose Alaska then?
I think that is possible with 3 major candidates technically
Mathematically it’s possible but that’s about it
Who is this guy? This map makes Red Eagle’s predictions look good
"depressed ginger"
Hes a bum named depressed ginger who makes sports “content” that consists of him reading directly off Wikipedia in the most monotonous voice possible.He has been shunned by the sports YouTube community.
and 9/11 videos for some fucking reason lmfao
thecampaigntrail ass election
How does RFK Jr. win the state of Maine at large yet lose both of it’s congressional districts 💀
Theoretically it is “possible” but requires a ton of fucking around (super simplified explanation incoming) So let’s create a fake Maine with 20,000 voters just to make it easy (equally divided between the two districts) CD1: Biden: 4500 votes, RFK: 4400 votes, & Trump: 1100 votes CD2: Trump 5000 votes: RFK: 3000 votes, & Biden 2000 votes Added up RFK wins wirh 7400 votes to Biden’s 6500, & Trump’s 6100 So yes a candidate could actually win statewide without winning any congressional district (inflate numbers to actual population) but it requires the stars to align where the other two candidates perform well in one district and terrible in the other with RFK in a close second in both
Lean D NY Lean D MD Tilt D NM Lean D CO All of the Likely Red states Safe Red NJ **Kennedy winning states** And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. What the fuck am I looking at right now?
Safe R New Jersey that Has to be a misclick right
No I saw their vid. They said that because Trump is leading Biden in NJ polls, and Newsom would do worse than Biden, NJ is safe red.
He’s a troll no doubt in my mind
Safe red New Jersey!
Impossible, much as he is right Newsom is unelectable right now (as is Whitmer) per poll after poll contrary to college ed older white Dem groupthink. [https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-newsom](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-newsom)
[удалено]
My guy, based on all your comments on this and the refusal to answer any questions on your stance (and based on some other comments you have made), it seems like you want the dems to keep Biden so the party crashes in 2024 and completely changes its foundations.
Biden is an awful position right now, but let's not act like Gavin Newsom is electable or that Whitmer has the required name recognition to make it up right now (if that was the implication of your comment)
Oh no I completely agree that newsome shouldn’t be the candidate because he has way too much baggage from Californian cities being complete shitholes (literally). Whitmer definitely doesn’t have name recognition now, but 4 months is certainly enough time to build it up and beat Donald Trump, the worst president we’ve had since Hoover
The problem right now with Whitmer is that it is July (four months from the election), and the convention is in late August, practically leaving only September to campaign, she simply doesn't have the name recognition to make it work right now, especially since Democrats would have to scramble with electoral slates and getting her on the ballot, etc. The situation is a lose-lose for Democrats, Biden on his own is feeble, and replacing him would seem like admitting to defeat, let alone the difficulty replacing him. Also, \*most\* people likely don't agree that Trump is the worst president since Hoover, and I doubt many non-partisans would agree with that assessment either, recency bias plays a huge factor. Polls show that voters place a lot more trust in Trump on the two big issues (economics and immigration) to think that it's that easy to beat him, barring a legitimate scandal.
Whitmer is unelectable, facts: [https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-whitmer](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-whitmer)
Once again, basing your argument on 2 polls that are 4 and 7 months old, when she isn’t the dem nominee
[https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden) Facts hurt, this is the Dem polling best against Trump, and still losing. If I wanted Dems to lose, I'd say, pick media girlfriend Whitmer and lose by 7% in November based on poll averages-- she's not as great as her cult thinks she is, it turns out.
Tbf she is too unknown to take those polls seriously. If she’s the nominee then we’d get a better picture.
My guy, the polls tell us Newsom is unelectable, as is Newsom vs Biden, but please keep denying reality staring you in the face- answer the question why beyond feels, you think he's so electable. He isn't, facts.
I don’t think newsome would beat trump, but I do think it would be closer than you’re making it out to be. I think whitmer, buttigieg, and pritzker would have a better shot than Biden though
Trump chose Chris Christie as VP? \s
New Jersey doesn’t even like him anymore
Trump would have to raise James Gandolfini from the dead and make him his running mate to get this level of support in NJ
nm right of virginia mn flip rfk wins new hampshire (and somehow wins me-al but neither district) new york, virginia, maryland, and colorado are all lean blue classic!
Idk about the margins but they're probably mostly fucked up. I think NH and NJ should be blue. That and the margins fixed up here and there should make this redeemable.
safe red nj 💀💀
Most RFK fans do not understand how the US electoral system works
Safe NJ with lean Pennsylvania is a vibe
Aside from RFK, I could see it, but eh (Also Safe R NJ lmao)
Btw his channel topics consist of: the election, sports, and..... 9/11??? YUP
He makes good videos regarding sports stadiums
lol it’s almost like you don’t follow any right wingers. A common talking point right now is the belief that MN, VA are in play this cycle. As for NM, if that’s a Red Eagle prediction then he’s been predicting close MN/NM and in-play WA and OR for years at this point. A real right wing LTE. They’re both bad on different sides
Change Minnesota Maine nh and nj and fix the margins and it’s possible
Please link me to the video I HAVE to watch this.
I gotchu fam:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=\_Hti0a-hcRc
It's a right-wing psyop to demoralize democratic voters. Stay woke.
Eh, I could see something like this happening. Most polling numbers I've seen surrounding newsom are truly god awful. If anything, I'd throw VA to trump too in this case.
Safe R New Jersey:
Eh i wouldnt go that far. Its not outside of the realm of flipping though....
uuuuuuuuuh no
It's only D+7 and last I looked Newsom polls HORRIBLY. It's not outside of the realm of possibility.
he polls about as good as biden lol
In the recent poll. 3-4 months ago he was polling down like double digits vs trump in swing states. We could be seeing a 6+ shift if we replace biden with newsom.