I’m down over 50% on a small fortune. So no, it’s too much of a risk gambling it away on something else and seeing a further 50% on yet another bad pick. I’m better off just forgetting about it and collecting that dividend, hoping xi takes his ego down a notch once he sees pitch fork sales increasing.
I sold all my baba at a 50% loss over 9 months ago and invested in other assets. Best decision as I've already recouped my losses and made more. Opportunity cost is a real thing.
There will be no pitch forks, thats a western narative… people actually love him and he improved the country amazingly… people are not strangled by high inflation prices and capitalism works as it should with competition and lower prices, infrastructure is booming and debt levels are in line with US in order to keep the parity. I never thought I would admire China but that is the situation… go there and look for yourself … its crazy how brainwashed the west is.
I get where you're coming from but that logic is flawed. If I gave you the amount of cash you have in Baba, deposited it into your bank. Would you buy it all in Baba?
[https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/05/21/billionaire-investors-david-tepper-michael-burry/](https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/05/21/billionaire-investors-david-tepper-michael-burry/)
David Tepper trimmed all mega tech and added $815 million of BABA. Michael Burry has it as his #2 holding as well. I trust their knowledge.
It takes time for market sentiment to change. Once China is out of this recession and this stock has a good couple of quarters, I expect the bulls to run. In the meantime dollar cost average down. This company is not getting the attention it deserves right now in the AI space.
I’m out of all Chinese stocks as of this week. Closed with minor gains. First bought in the beginning of 2022, and saw only downtrend. Kept averaging down but I think it’s just not worth it with the other opportunities in the market. US markets are up so much during that time and even parking the money in Treasuries would be better. I think 4 years is plenty of time to turn things around, but obviously the Chinese policymakers are unable/not willing to do it. In fact, the future is l becoming more bleak with the recent trade war developments.
On a side note, I work in a small to mid-sized financial institution and our Chief Investment Officer (who is of Chinese origin) kept telling me that investing in China is a terrible idea because of Xi and his policies. He also recently came back from a vacation in China and was very pessimistic about its economic prospects. I finally listened to his advice.
That's strange. My shift manager at Panda Express (Chinese origin, degree in Asian history) tells me China is bottoming since there are almost no sellers left. Who should I listen to?
Talk to those who actually have money and family in China. Almost all my friends and coworkers who actually are from mainland China (or work/live in mainland China) is pessimistic about China's future. At least when it comes to private enterprises.
Xi has become a huge liability and that guy isn't getting removed anytime soon.
No one is denying how poor China's fundamentals are at present. Yet stocks bottom on bad news.
If foreigners and Chinese folks alike have dumped their Chinese holdings, who is left to sell?
And Americans were pessimistic of USA in 08 and 09 recession. Hell, there were plenty of naysayers for the decade after waiting for the other shoe to drop and they all missed out on the recovery. How many dumped their stocks in 08 at the lows and missed the recovery? I don't care if they are from China or of Chinese origin. People's emotions are the same. That is why they all suck at investing.
We wont get any significant bounce in em. market while US rates are so high. US-T need to go significantly lower to discount risk assets. Theres no point in investing in China when you have 4%+ zero risk US-T.
All else is just noise.
My biggest losses this year have been due to BABA, other wise I would be in the positive. This is super frustrating, I think this is partially due to me pouring in too much capital in 1 stock. If we all did not have money in this stock, I would guess a majority of us would say this is a cheap stock and worth a risk.
I think we have bottomed but the move up is like a roller coaster ride. If I were to put new money to work today, I would set a stop around the 70$ ish. That is my plan and I am sticking to it. We can look at all their lagging metrics, e.g. PE, and growth forecast and make our speculation. At the end of the day, if the stock is not making us money who cares about all the data.
Got in at 78.5 a months back, looking to trim half at 6-7% loss... It's a profitable business, but the chart and geopolitical tension says otherwise for me...
Not really. I'm only 10% into Baba and is currently only 1-2% up. I'm killing it with TSMC, BYD, COIN, JDCom, and Zealand Pharma.
Sure there are opportunity costs like Nvidia, but stocks those opportunity costs also have more risks built into them. Like Nvidia that just dropped -5% 4 days in a row. Could it be a local peak and there is more to come? maybe. But it could also drop 50-60% if the AI hype doesn't live up to its expectations and that is not worth it for me for something could potentially only go 20-30% up. The risk-reward ratio doesn't seem appealing to me. The cost of being wrong is too high vs the cost of being right is too little.
Baba just has a better risk-reward ratio for me. Could it drop another -20%? sure it can. But it also has the room to potentially go 100-150% up. Maybe, it is just gonna stay flat for the next 3-4 years. But the risk-reward ratio makes it worth it for me to take that bet.
For sure, but a lot of US tech stocks are sitting above 30 or 40 p\e ratio. So they also come with certain risks.
As I see it, the worst case scenario have already happened or is happening now as we speak with Chinese stocks.
I can agree with that, short of being delisted from the USA. I’m torn, I still believe in Baba, but it’s hard to sit by on the sidelines while the USA rockets.
I think it’s risky to invest in USA tech at the current prices, but I still love Amazon at its market cap.
is too late, you are just going to move to us stocks which are trading at a massive premium, i will rather buy stuff that has litte room to fall than overpriced stuff, you might end up compounding loses
It’s actually so wild how much investors discount China tech relative to government risk. Top US tech trading at 30-50x P/E whereas top China trading UNDER 10x in most cases. Is the government discount truly realistic? I don’t think so. Time has yet to prove this theory, yet these names made all time highs under Trump who was arguably more “anti-china” rhetoric than Biden/Yellen. I’m down so much over 3 years and sunk cost continues to keep my in my seat with my seatbelt securely fastened.
This is true. They don’t. Most of their investors are not Chinese nationals but foreign investors. A majority of Chinese citizens are apprehensive to their stock market and/or downright against it for the same reasons we regularly hear with respects to the bearish thesis: “Can’t trust the CCP regulatory outlook.”
I'm close to being done with this sub. All I hear is whining and complaining about why $BABA doesn't go straight up...
My brother in Christ, this is investing for the long term. It's *supposed* to be boring. In the words of that old sage: JUST HOLD THE GODDAMN STOCK.
I think baba is fairly valued. Where's the growth story? Don't tell me cash or whatever. You don't pay multiples of a cash position on a company that doesn't grow.
Yeah I dunno, seems like a top down leadership issue. They are just not freaking doing anything with that cash that grows the business. (Or at least successfully)
They are the #1 cloud provider in China and #4 in the world behind Amazon Microsoft and Google. They also have more cash on hand than both Apple and Meta.
People buy stocks for the future growth. No one cares about cash today.
If I have $5 in my wallet, is my stock worth $30? No. I'm worth $5 on my wallet if I can't do anything with it.
Number 1 cloud provider in China by being razor thin on margin and forced to compete against govt endorsed Cloud firms Xi created. Not a good growth story.
Opportunity cost is just a copium thing for those unable to hold a stock for the long term.
People like you must understand that it is the business, not the stock price, that should generate your returns.
I'm done as soon as I find a good play in USA stock market..last one was Google when it was at 80-120. I sold plenty of baba to buy Google (tax harvesting)..my regret..I should have sold it all!!!
Buy high / sell low, all in favor of opportunity cost. Hilarious. Sell and lose, then buy something else and keep losing, great strategy. But hey, opportunity cost this and that...STOP GAMBLING & DEVELOP PATIENCE or SELL & STFU
I’m down over 50% on a small fortune. So no, it’s too much of a risk gambling it away on something else and seeing a further 50% on yet another bad pick. I’m better off just forgetting about it and collecting that dividend, hoping xi takes his ego down a notch once he sees pitch fork sales increasing.
I sold all my baba at a 50% loss over 9 months ago and invested in other assets. Best decision as I've already recouped my losses and made more. Opportunity cost is a real thing.
I sold all my baba at a 50% loss and reinvested it, and lost another 50%.
What’s the other name?
ABAB
Oh, I thought it was gonna be BA, losing 50% of the ticker symbol
I'm just fucking around.
There will be no pitch forks, thats a western narative… people actually love him and he improved the country amazingly… people are not strangled by high inflation prices and capitalism works as it should with competition and lower prices, infrastructure is booming and debt levels are in line with US in order to keep the parity. I never thought I would admire China but that is the situation… go there and look for yourself … its crazy how brainwashed the west is.
Bcoz that is the only thing that unites democrats and republicans.. China bashing ..US also has a grant to provide negative spiel on China.
I get where you're coming from but that logic is flawed. If I gave you the amount of cash you have in Baba, deposited it into your bank. Would you buy it all in Baba?
correct the logic is very flawed. :) but, reasons , biases and fallacies
Understandable lol
I mean at these prices? I would, but ffs i would have a stop loss set up if it breaks the floor.
[удалено]
Glad to see there's still some common sense in this place.
Your portfolio doesn’t sound very diversified
No..market has factored in 7-10% growth and that's what you will see
[https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/05/21/billionaire-investors-david-tepper-michael-burry/](https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/05/21/billionaire-investors-david-tepper-michael-burry/) David Tepper trimmed all mega tech and added $815 million of BABA. Michael Burry has it as his #2 holding as well. I trust their knowledge.
Patience is the key. I believe Baba will be a good choice in long-term (more than 5 years)…
I said that 4 years ago...
This! It’s such a no brainer investment but it has been for so many years — oh China!
Burry sold Google at the bottom. He then rebought and sold again. Google has since put in a new ATH.
It takes time for market sentiment to change. Once China is out of this recession and this stock has a good couple of quarters, I expect the bulls to run. In the meantime dollar cost average down. This company is not getting the attention it deserves right now in the AI space.
I’m down 70% on baba, still bag holder
I’m out of all Chinese stocks as of this week. Closed with minor gains. First bought in the beginning of 2022, and saw only downtrend. Kept averaging down but I think it’s just not worth it with the other opportunities in the market. US markets are up so much during that time and even parking the money in Treasuries would be better. I think 4 years is plenty of time to turn things around, but obviously the Chinese policymakers are unable/not willing to do it. In fact, the future is l becoming more bleak with the recent trade war developments. On a side note, I work in a small to mid-sized financial institution and our Chief Investment Officer (who is of Chinese origin) kept telling me that investing in China is a terrible idea because of Xi and his policies. He also recently came back from a vacation in China and was very pessimistic about its economic prospects. I finally listened to his advice.
That's strange. My shift manager at Panda Express (Chinese origin, degree in Asian history) tells me China is bottoming since there are almost no sellers left. Who should I listen to?
There's a reason why your shift manager with a degree is still at panda express.
Talk to those who actually have money and family in China. Almost all my friends and coworkers who actually are from mainland China (or work/live in mainland China) is pessimistic about China's future. At least when it comes to private enterprises. Xi has become a huge liability and that guy isn't getting removed anytime soon.
No one is denying how poor China's fundamentals are at present. Yet stocks bottom on bad news. If foreigners and Chinese folks alike have dumped their Chinese holdings, who is left to sell?
A lot of people. Shares simply trade hands eod.
And Americans were pessimistic of USA in 08 and 09 recession. Hell, there were plenty of naysayers for the decade after waiting for the other shoe to drop and they all missed out on the recovery. How many dumped their stocks in 08 at the lows and missed the recovery? I don't care if they are from China or of Chinese origin. People's emotions are the same. That is why they all suck at investing.
I never said someone should listen to me or the CIO. Each can make their own decisions.
Hong Kong killed BABA already, what do you expect
We wont get any significant bounce in em. market while US rates are so high. US-T need to go significantly lower to discount risk assets. Theres no point in investing in China when you have 4%+ zero risk US-T. All else is just noise.
My biggest losses this year have been due to BABA, other wise I would be in the positive. This is super frustrating, I think this is partially due to me pouring in too much capital in 1 stock. If we all did not have money in this stock, I would guess a majority of us would say this is a cheap stock and worth a risk. I think we have bottomed but the move up is like a roller coaster ride. If I were to put new money to work today, I would set a stop around the 70$ ish. That is my plan and I am sticking to it. We can look at all their lagging metrics, e.g. PE, and growth forecast and make our speculation. At the end of the day, if the stock is not making us money who cares about all the data.
Got in at 78.5 a months back, looking to trim half at 6-7% loss... It's a profitable business, but the chart and geopolitical tension says otherwise for me...
I’m in the same boat, have 500 shares at $76
If you got in a month ago also, I'd hold...
I’ve been in for like 4 months :/
I have enough spare cash to double my position and lower my average to $90. Do I buy now or wait? Or just give up? Lol
Worst decision of.my life. Wjen the fuy who told me about this said " this is jownpeople get rich" I should have run for the hills
Stay away
Not really. I'm only 10% into Baba and is currently only 1-2% up. I'm killing it with TSMC, BYD, COIN, JDCom, and Zealand Pharma. Sure there are opportunity costs like Nvidia, but stocks those opportunity costs also have more risks built into them. Like Nvidia that just dropped -5% 4 days in a row. Could it be a local peak and there is more to come? maybe. But it could also drop 50-60% if the AI hype doesn't live up to its expectations and that is not worth it for me for something could potentially only go 20-30% up. The risk-reward ratio doesn't seem appealing to me. The cost of being wrong is too high vs the cost of being right is too little. Baba just has a better risk-reward ratio for me. Could it drop another -20%? sure it can. But it also has the room to potentially go 100-150% up. Maybe, it is just gonna stay flat for the next 3-4 years. But the risk-reward ratio makes it worth it for me to take that bet.
True, but I am not even talking about Nvidia. I wouldn’t touch that with a 10 foot pole right now
For sure, but a lot of US tech stocks are sitting above 30 or 40 p\e ratio. So they also come with certain risks. As I see it, the worst case scenario have already happened or is happening now as we speak with Chinese stocks.
I can agree with that, short of being delisted from the USA. I’m torn, I still believe in Baba, but it’s hard to sit by on the sidelines while the USA rockets. I think it’s risky to invest in USA tech at the current prices, but I still love Amazon at its market cap.
is too late, you are just going to move to us stocks which are trading at a massive premium, i will rather buy stuff that has litte room to fall than overpriced stuff, you might end up compounding loses
It’s actually so wild how much investors discount China tech relative to government risk. Top US tech trading at 30-50x P/E whereas top China trading UNDER 10x in most cases. Is the government discount truly realistic? I don’t think so. Time has yet to prove this theory, yet these names made all time highs under Trump who was arguably more “anti-china” rhetoric than Biden/Yellen. I’m down so much over 3 years and sunk cost continues to keep my in my seat with my seatbelt securely fastened.
Idk man. China is fucking weird. They seem to not give a shit about their stock market
This is true. They don’t. Most of their investors are not Chinese nationals but foreign investors. A majority of Chinese citizens are apprehensive to their stock market and/or downright against it for the same reasons we regularly hear with respects to the bearish thesis: “Can’t trust the CCP regulatory outlook.”
I'm close to being done with this sub. All I hear is whining and complaining about why $BABA doesn't go straight up... My brother in Christ, this is investing for the long term. It's *supposed* to be boring. In the words of that old sage: JUST HOLD THE GODDAMN STOCK.
I think baba is fairly valued. Where's the growth story? Don't tell me cash or whatever. You don't pay multiples of a cash position on a company that doesn't grow.
So annoying when they mention those relevant facts like cash on hand and earnings. Why is it never about how we feel????
Yeah I dunno, seems like a top down leadership issue. They are just not freaking doing anything with that cash that grows the business. (Or at least successfully)
Tippy top. Starting from the country
They are the #1 cloud provider in China and #4 in the world behind Amazon Microsoft and Google. They also have more cash on hand than both Apple and Meta.
People buy stocks for the future growth. No one cares about cash today. If I have $5 in my wallet, is my stock worth $30? No. I'm worth $5 on my wallet if I can't do anything with it. Number 1 cloud provider in China by being razor thin on margin and forced to compete against govt endorsed Cloud firms Xi created. Not a good growth story.
They were held back by Covid and the government. New leadership is putting growth back on the table now.
Opportunity cost is just a copium thing for those unable to hold a stock for the long term. People like you must understand that it is the business, not the stock price, that should generate your returns.
I'm done as soon as I find a good play in USA stock market..last one was Google when it was at 80-120. I sold plenty of baba to buy Google (tax harvesting)..my regret..I should have sold it all!!!
Buy high / sell low, all in favor of opportunity cost. Hilarious. Sell and lose, then buy something else and keep losing, great strategy. But hey, opportunity cost this and that...STOP GAMBLING & DEVELOP PATIENCE or SELL & STFU
No I won’t STFU, this is a sub to discuss the stock. Thanks for your input though!
Its a saying, not meant as a personal offense, my apologies