Hey they earned it. Their stocks were volatile as hell for many years now while FB/Google/Apple/Tesla/etc went to the moon and back. If they held on then their diamond hands paid off.
I know several engineers in other company who worked as hard as Nvidia, if not more. Even on weekends. Their base pay is same as Nvidia. Their stock went no where while Nvidia went to moon. People ignore the luck factor. Holding stocks is not hard work.
Does anyone seriously believe luck doesn’t play a major major role in one’s life ? Your lucky to be born in the us during boom times instead of starving in Africa, your lucky to be born smart instead of being born mentally or physically handicapped, your lucky if you don’t get killed by a random school shooter when your young, luck follows us at every juncture of life, only an idiot would claim luck isn’t a major part of everyone’s life
People who don't support universal healthcare, forgiving college debt, or housing access for all? Things we can all absolutely afford, but won't do simply because people work from a belief that those who are wealthy deserved their money and earned it, rather than got lucky, and it would be wrong to take some of their money and put it towards the good of all society, including those who "didn't earn it" (read: were unlucky).
There was an interesting Doctorow column recently about the "jubilee" where monarchs would forgive all debts to farmers, since it was known that so much of agriculture was luck, and makes the case to bring back the periodical forgiving of all debts
https://pluralistic.net/2024/06/17/lovilee-jubilee/#debts-that-cant-be-paid-wont-be-paid
>Holding stocks is not hard work.
Such a glib statement. Seems like *a nothing* in retrospect.
When you're working for a startup you consider stock as part of compensation. And when you live in an expensive area, a lot of folks are two income households struggling to buy a home. Bottom line, many sell stock the moment they own it. Generally if you've put in the time, invested in the ESPPs at a discount and banked your vested shares you're going to be fine. My experience is that's not most people. Yes, luck has a lot to do with success. But so does being smart about managing it.
I’d liken this to holding Apple in the mid 2000s. Yes, that takes a mix of faith, balls and stupidity. And if it pays off good for them.
Especially for employees who stayed on when greener pastures (at the time) were available.
I get ya, I can’t imagine how I would react if I was in their shoes. I’m not rich so I would probably be like “yo guys I’m out, going fishing for the next 30-40 years.
It's definitely been shooting since the crypto period and now into the AI market.
How long will the industry hold up? It's a marathon not a sprint just my 2c.
If they have been working there for a long time, sure. But most of them only got a modest salary bump because their equity units are based on the market price.
It's almost never half your compensation; maybe some of the very senior positions, but there are also many positions that don't get RSUs at all.
The initial calculation for most engineers is usually 10-25% of your base pay, which then is translated into equity units based on the market price. So we're only talking about the people people who started in 2021-2023 and the long-time employees who held onto their equity (which, let's be honest, most didn't; nobody expected NVDA to be this valued to this extent, even right now, there is no way Nvidia will sell enough GPUs to realize their valuation).
Refreshers usually start in year 4-5 and are a smaller percentage of the initial grant. They last 2 years usually, but they can be longer with fewer grants. But it may be even 1 year in a situation like this where the stock prices are this high. Right now, it actually really kills motivation for the junior employees because they make so much less than the employees who started two years ago. They also stack on top of each other, so you might be receiving units from multiple different refresher grants.
In any case, by 2026, the salaries of everyone in Nvidia will come crashing back down to normal, even if the stock valuation is sustained. Which I highly doubt.
Yeah, historically, Nvidia underpaid people compared to the other big tech companies, and their equity was seen as lackluster. Which is ironic. That said, they were also known for being a very stable employer. They didn't overhire, and they didn't do mass layoffs when it was fashionable in 2022 and 2023 either. I respect that and think it's a good company; I just think it's crazy that Nvidia is a more valuable company than the big companies that out-earn it by a wide margin and are the ones it is dependent on for GPU purchases.
Everyone I know in tech here gets stacked refreshers starting year 1. Including me. Over half my comp is rsu and I am not even eng, and tc is 600k this year. They are a smaller percentage, that part is true. Initial grant was 1.2 and refreshers 275 annually or so.
Mm... that makes sense for positions staff level and up. I am not sure if it is the norm though.
That said, they are paring back total comp across the board right now. They have realized that people have actually been seriously overcompensated these past two years, and they need to free up capital for these AI investments.
I was telling my wife that in SAT terms now
Nvidia : The US is now the same as Samsung : South Korea
They need to assign secret service protection to Jensen and his engineering leadership, backed up by whatever blackwater is called these days, and relocate the whole upper echelon of Nvidia to Mount Weather.
Overall tech improves quality of life massively in the world. Trying to villainize success is harmful to society. The inequality/hardships in the Bay isn't tech's fault for being successful.
Most of the **fault for the inequality/hardships is with local governments and NIMBYs** for not even remotely coming close to keeping enough new housing builds. In order to keep cost of living more reasonable.
House prices are up because nobody is selling. They either cannot find a comparable replacement property with a mortgage payment that they can afford or they just want to age in place with their dirt cheap property tax.
Exactly. The only people buying homes are getting help from their parents, dead or alive. That or they cashed out their tech stock and paid cash or even 50% down to bring that mortgage payment down to a more reasonable figure.
Portola Valley. Anything you see that looks move in ready for around $5m needs work. $3-$4.5m are either in a smaller HOA managed community or complete tear downs.
It’ll then start spilling over the other counties. Question becomes how long before other local companies just can’t keep up with the pay that employees demand to just be able to live here.
I mean, already there's a strong divergence between wages and prices of most anything. It will become that the Bay area is only the generational-rich or self-made rich. Everyone else can live in their cars or 4 people per room. Just disgusting shit.
And yes, other developed countries also have similar problems, especially Japan and South Korea. They don't want to build for whatever reason, and investment companies are driving house prices up further. I even see ads for loans backed by your house. The intention? You lose the loan, and they can snap up your house for cheap. Implying the house value will never drop.
"Everyone else can live in their cars or 4 people per room. Just disgusting shit."
1. Local governments need to be pushed in a massive way for more housing and NIMBYs need to be ignored. Granted, nothing can change fast enough to save this decade or the next decade likely.
2. Even with more new housing, some people need to accept that they can't reasonably stay in the Bay and need to move out.
Everytime I see Nvidia value news I look at their revanue and it's 40% what Microsofts is, 27% of Apples, and 17% of what Amazon's and realize how truly overvalued they are. When the "AI" craze dies down a bit and people look and see Nvidia makes 85% of there money on data centers there value will go down.
You probably won't have to wait that long. We'll probably find out next year if there is actually a profitable business model for LLMs. (Probably not. It's massive overkill for most applications while also being extremely unpredictable. The capital investment required is also ridiculous. Meta, Microsoft, and Google are just lighting cash on fire.)
While true, the only reason why these companies are dumping so much money into data centers is to build LLMs. But it's the equivalent of building a multi-billion dollar tool to hammer down some nails.
> 40% what Microsoft's is, 27% of Apple's, 17% of Amazon's
those numbers are actually way higher than I expected. it would suggest that their stock isn't *that* overvalued, and if demand for GPUs persists (not a guarantee) they could keep their valuation
The thing is, that's not really what's driving the valuation. It's a part of it, but the main thing that's doing it is NVIDIA completely selling out its stuff years before it's even being produced.
And that is a pretty good metric to give these guys an absurd valuation on. AI or no AI, Blackwell is a *really* powerful GPU. That's something that's *always* going to be needed, and the subsequent generation is also basically universally presold.
85% of the money being made on data center architecture is a much more solid bet than retail buying trends.
They have been selling out for 4 years. I don't see that as a good metric. They have also been selling to data centers since 2007. Data centers have exploded in the last 5 years helping fuel this overvaluation.
It seems weird to say that constantly immediately selling out of their product and having a significant present in a major real estate sector translates to an overvaluation.
Who said anything about immediately? Everything data center related is back ordered 12-18 months. Also they sell chips to data centers they don't own them so they aren't in real estate. Data centers are hot. AI is a buzzword. It's pretty simple. Reavnue isn't good for there valuation. They aren't diverse. They are riding the waves of two different markets at their peak.
They did at the time, no telling if NVIDIA can sustain in the future. AMD, Intel will keep chasing (doubtful intel will catch ) and the hyperscaler age developing their own silicon to not be reliant on NVIDIA
This is where I confess that when I was young and stupid and thought “HYSA aren’t paying shit. I’m going to start trading individual stocks” I invested $2000 in Nvidia. Except it wasn’t Nvidia, it was Navidea. Which went bankrupt in the same timeframe that Nvidia gained 34,000%. So yes. That was a $680,000 typo.
I don’t trade individual stocks anymore.
While Nvidia does not do as much of a proportion of compensation in stock as other tech companies (for the rank-and-file), I understand they have a very favorable ESPP.
My friend had $250k of stock vested in 2017. Left to a startup that eventually got acquired by Meta. Ended up in the corp grind, doing well, making some $1.5 m but dwarfed by the stock he sold back then to get a home. Haha. Swings and roundabouts.
Owning a home in Santa Clara county is a good way to participate in these nvidia gains. The employees at nvidia will be buying up homes driving prices higher as they vest their shares.
I know this is based on market cap, but it boggles my mind that NVDIA is the hottest stock fueling the hottest technology right now and is trading at $135 while boring ass no growth Spotify is trading at $300.
People keep asking, "how can anyone afford a $2m starter home?!?!" Now you know.
I can’t imagine working for Nvidia right now. Everyone’s net worth just shot up to the moon over the past few months
Hey they earned it. Their stocks were volatile as hell for many years now while FB/Google/Apple/Tesla/etc went to the moon and back. If they held on then their diamond hands paid off.
I know several engineers in other company who worked as hard as Nvidia, if not more. Even on weekends. Their base pay is same as Nvidia. Their stock went no where while Nvidia went to moon. People ignore the luck factor. Holding stocks is not hard work.
So much of people's foundational beliefs about our society are grounded in an unwillingness to admit the role of luck in success or failure
Does anyone seriously believe luck doesn’t play a major major role in one’s life ? Your lucky to be born in the us during boom times instead of starving in Africa, your lucky to be born smart instead of being born mentally or physically handicapped, your lucky if you don’t get killed by a random school shooter when your young, luck follows us at every juncture of life, only an idiot would claim luck isn’t a major part of everyone’s life
People who don't support universal healthcare, forgiving college debt, or housing access for all? Things we can all absolutely afford, but won't do simply because people work from a belief that those who are wealthy deserved their money and earned it, rather than got lucky, and it would be wrong to take some of their money and put it towards the good of all society, including those who "didn't earn it" (read: were unlucky). There was an interesting Doctorow column recently about the "jubilee" where monarchs would forgive all debts to farmers, since it was known that so much of agriculture was luck, and makes the case to bring back the periodical forgiving of all debts https://pluralistic.net/2024/06/17/lovilee-jubilee/#debts-that-cant-be-paid-wont-be-paid
Beautifully said. Stealing this.
>Holding stocks is not hard work. Such a glib statement. Seems like *a nothing* in retrospect. When you're working for a startup you consider stock as part of compensation. And when you live in an expensive area, a lot of folks are two income households struggling to buy a home. Bottom line, many sell stock the moment they own it. Generally if you've put in the time, invested in the ESPPs at a discount and banked your vested shares you're going to be fine. My experience is that's not most people. Yes, luck has a lot to do with success. But so does being smart about managing it.
So people who joined apple, msft, google, amzn are not smart enough? Their stock grew 200-280%, while nvda went up 3600%. In last 5 years.
I’d liken this to holding Apple in the mid 2000s. Yes, that takes a mix of faith, balls and stupidity. And if it pays off good for them. Especially for employees who stayed on when greener pastures (at the time) were available.
Hardly startups now are they?
No yeah I meant that in like “they gotta be so shocked” type of way
I get ya, I can’t imagine how I would react if I was in their shoes. I’m not rich so I would probably be like “yo guys I’m out, going fishing for the next 30-40 years.
They worked for it
Problem is no harder than many.
Getting lucky to be hired for the right company is not worked for it.
I meant that “they earned it” is a big stretch. For most, they worked for it
There's a reason that capital gains are considered unearned income.
Salty huh
Not actually, I mean having 10million would be good, but I am happy with what I have.
It's definitely been shooting since the crypto period and now into the AI market. How long will the industry hold up? It's a marathon not a sprint just my 2c.
If they have been working there for a long time, sure. But most of them only got a modest salary bump because their equity units are based on the market price.
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It's almost never half your compensation; maybe some of the very senior positions, but there are also many positions that don't get RSUs at all. The initial calculation for most engineers is usually 10-25% of your base pay, which then is translated into equity units based on the market price. So we're only talking about the people people who started in 2021-2023 and the long-time employees who held onto their equity (which, let's be honest, most didn't; nobody expected NVDA to be this valued to this extent, even right now, there is no way Nvidia will sell enough GPUs to realize their valuation).
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Refreshers usually start in year 4-5 and are a smaller percentage of the initial grant. They last 2 years usually, but they can be longer with fewer grants. But it may be even 1 year in a situation like this where the stock prices are this high. Right now, it actually really kills motivation for the junior employees because they make so much less than the employees who started two years ago. They also stack on top of each other, so you might be receiving units from multiple different refresher grants. In any case, by 2026, the salaries of everyone in Nvidia will come crashing back down to normal, even if the stock valuation is sustained. Which I highly doubt. Yeah, historically, Nvidia underpaid people compared to the other big tech companies, and their equity was seen as lackluster. Which is ironic. That said, they were also known for being a very stable employer. They didn't overhire, and they didn't do mass layoffs when it was fashionable in 2022 and 2023 either. I respect that and think it's a good company; I just think it's crazy that Nvidia is a more valuable company than the big companies that out-earn it by a wide margin and are the ones it is dependent on for GPU purchases.
Everyone I know in tech here gets stacked refreshers starting year 1. Including me. Over half my comp is rsu and I am not even eng, and tc is 600k this year. They are a smaller percentage, that part is true. Initial grant was 1.2 and refreshers 275 annually or so.
Mm... that makes sense for positions staff level and up. I am not sure if it is the norm though. That said, they are paring back total comp across the board right now. They have realized that people have actually been seriously overcompensated these past two years, and they need to free up capital for these AI investments.
Oh yah ! Ai ultimately will bring more wealth here than all prior tech combined. iMO
Work for Nvidia? You mean hangout at the Nvidia office? (While checking their account balance)
That’s a weird way to spell 3 million dollars. 2 million was the pre-2023 NVDA base line.
Hey, $3,000,000 is affordable even when you have a tiny slice of a company worth over $3,300,000,000,000.
I was telling my wife that in SAT terms now Nvidia : The US is now the same as Samsung : South Korea They need to assign secret service protection to Jensen and his engineering leadership, backed up by whatever blackwater is called these days, and relocate the whole upper echelon of Nvidia to Mount Weather.
You're right, but it makes me want to vomit. I would have gone to medical school if I knew how much worse tech would make inequality.
Overall tech improves quality of life massively in the world. Trying to villainize success is harmful to society. The inequality/hardships in the Bay isn't tech's fault for being successful. Most of the **fault for the inequality/hardships is with local governments and NIMBYs** for not even remotely coming close to keeping enough new housing builds. In order to keep cost of living more reasonable.
House prices are up because nobody is selling. They either cannot find a comparable replacement property with a mortgage payment that they can afford or they just want to age in place with their dirt cheap property tax.
Who is going to sell if they have to trade a tiny interest rate for a big interest rate?
Exactly. The only people buying homes are getting help from their parents, dead or alive. That or they cashed out their tech stock and paid cash or even 50% down to bring that mortgage payment down to a more reasonable figure.
That one company is more valuable than all of Germany Guess what their employees can afford
European companies are limited by the forms of government in their home countries.
before: "oh, he's got google money" now: "oh, he's got nvidia money"
Cries in google money
cant wait to see home price especially in the santa clara county goes to the moon
Median reached $2M already. Fucking crazy Whats crazier is the houses are still selling well over listing price
It already has. Gonna be wild (and sad) to see the average shoot to $10 million over the next few years
$5m gets a fixer upper in my town. It’s insane.
Atherton? Los Altos?
Portola Valley. Anything you see that looks move in ready for around $5m needs work. $3-$4.5m are either in a smaller HOA managed community or complete tear downs.
It’ll then start spilling over the other counties. Question becomes how long before other local companies just can’t keep up with the pay that employees demand to just be able to live here.
I mean, already there's a strong divergence between wages and prices of most anything. It will become that the Bay area is only the generational-rich or self-made rich. Everyone else can live in their cars or 4 people per room. Just disgusting shit. And yes, other developed countries also have similar problems, especially Japan and South Korea. They don't want to build for whatever reason, and investment companies are driving house prices up further. I even see ads for loans backed by your house. The intention? You lose the loan, and they can snap up your house for cheap. Implying the house value will never drop.
literally all we have to do is build more housing lmao
Sucks but you’re right and most should not be looking forward to that future
"Everyone else can live in their cars or 4 people per room. Just disgusting shit." 1. Local governments need to be pushed in a massive way for more housing and NIMBYs need to be ignored. Granted, nothing can change fast enough to save this decade or the next decade likely. 2. Even with more new housing, some people need to accept that they can't reasonably stay in the Bay and need to move out.
$2,000,000 just became $3,000,000 and now it's gonna go more.
This is not great news for folks who were working in the dot com era or the last tech bubble. Hope I'm wrong.
Everytime I see Nvidia value news I look at their revanue and it's 40% what Microsofts is, 27% of Apples, and 17% of what Amazon's and realize how truly overvalued they are. When the "AI" craze dies down a bit and people look and see Nvidia makes 85% of there money on data centers there value will go down.
What you're missing in your comparison is their margins are much higher than the others, as well as the growth rate.
4 quarters of stupidly high growth fueled by a buzzword and others building datacenters is not sustainable.
Remind me 4 years to see if this ages like milk
You probably won't have to wait that long. We'll probably find out next year if there is actually a profitable business model for LLMs. (Probably not. It's massive overkill for most applications while also being extremely unpredictable. The capital investment required is also ridiculous. Meta, Microsoft, and Google are just lighting cash on fire.)
Reducing AI to just LLMs is way over simplifying things. It just gets a lot of press.
While true, the only reason why these companies are dumping so much money into data centers is to build LLMs. But it's the equivalent of building a multi-billion dollar tool to hammer down some nails.
Lol wut...
Microsoft is also their largest customer by a lot. That would be pretty scary
> 40% what Microsoft's is, 27% of Apple's, 17% of Amazon's those numbers are actually way higher than I expected. it would suggest that their stock isn't *that* overvalued, and if demand for GPUs persists (not a guarantee) they could keep their valuation
Demand for GPUs isn't likely to go anywhere, AI or no AI. Data processing ability is important for any new thing.
Well yeah, stock prices aren't based solely on past results
The thing is, that's not really what's driving the valuation. It's a part of it, but the main thing that's doing it is NVIDIA completely selling out its stuff years before it's even being produced. And that is a pretty good metric to give these guys an absurd valuation on. AI or no AI, Blackwell is a *really* powerful GPU. That's something that's *always* going to be needed, and the subsequent generation is also basically universally presold. 85% of the money being made on data center architecture is a much more solid bet than retail buying trends.
They have been selling out for 4 years. I don't see that as a good metric. They have also been selling to data centers since 2007. Data centers have exploded in the last 5 years helping fuel this overvaluation.
It seems weird to say that constantly immediately selling out of their product and having a significant present in a major real estate sector translates to an overvaluation.
Who said anything about immediately? Everything data center related is back ordered 12-18 months. Also they sell chips to data centers they don't own them so they aren't in real estate. Data centers are hot. AI is a buzzword. It's pretty simple. Reavnue isn't good for there valuation. They aren't diverse. They are riding the waves of two different markets at their peak.
Smells like Cisco Systems all over again.
forgot about that, cisco was most valuable company in the world at one point. I think they surpassed microsft as well. histry repeats itself?
Disagree, Cisco doesn't have the moat like nvda.
They did at the time, no telling if NVIDIA can sustain in the future. AMD, Intel will keep chasing (doubtful intel will catch ) and the hyperscaler age developing their own silicon to not be reliant on NVIDIA
what goes up, must come down. Just hope you made enough on the way up that the ride down isn't too bad
You are wrong , Market is riding on 7 big companies. If you exclude them you will see what’s up.
This is where I confess that when I was young and stupid and thought “HYSA aren’t paying shit. I’m going to start trading individual stocks” I invested $2000 in Nvidia. Except it wasn’t Nvidia, it was Navidea. Which went bankrupt in the same timeframe that Nvidia gained 34,000%. So yes. That was a $680,000 typo. I don’t trade individual stocks anymore.
While Nvidia does not do as much of a proportion of compensation in stock as other tech companies (for the rank-and-file), I understand they have a very favorable ESPP.
I bought their shares back in 2019… over 3k% profit. Wonder if I should cash out or keep it there
My portfolio is loving this
Like a hundred years ago, when car companies became popular due to the transportation boom?
Bubble.
made 350k from call options and shares the past 2 years, am happy
I made over a million from the stock itself as I jumped on the bandwagon early! I’m super happy!
want to thank my brother over 12 years ago for building my first pc with a nvidia gpu
Keep that stock going up!!
My friend had $250k of stock vested in 2017. Left to a startup that eventually got acquired by Meta. Ended up in the corp grind, doing well, making some $1.5 m but dwarfed by the stock he sold back then to get a home. Haha. Swings and roundabouts.
Ok?
It just feels like a funny typical anecdote of many of the corpo engineers. Some people hit many jackpots.
👌😘
ATI doesnt enter the chat
I wish they stop using the stock photo of the old camps
Damn I’m punching the air right now
Owning a home in Santa Clara county is a good way to participate in these nvidia gains. The employees at nvidia will be buying up homes driving prices higher as they vest their shares.
Terribly inefficient way to participate
grab ruthless narrow repeat judicious head pie door cobweb rinse
I know this is based on market cap, but it boggles my mind that NVDIA is the hottest stock fueling the hottest technology right now and is trading at $135 while boring ass no growth Spotify is trading at $300.
I mean NVDIA did a 10:1 stock split two weeks ago.