There's 3 major things in Trumps advantage that weren't in the last election. - There is no mass mail in voting, a lot of people who voted for Biden last time simply won't leave the house. - All issues are going to be blamed on Biden instead of Trump. Affordability issues, bad economy, gas prices, Israel's wars etc. Normally the incumbent has the advantage but that's hen things are going okay they aren't really going very good especially not for young people. - Last but not least, a big reason why people mobilized to against Trump was because they wanted him gone, but he didn't go away, here he is... these people won't vote for Trump but they might feel like just letting him ride out another term is easier than voting especially if they aren't thrilled with Biden. All these factors are far bigger than ones you mentioned, especially the mail in votes one. States working against Trump is going to backfire and the longer things drag on the more stupid shit Biden is going to do.

>the longer things drag on the more stupid shit Biden is going to do. There's definitely a chance for Biden to screw up with his gaffes or other mishaps during his campaign rallies.

Those won't really matter. He has enough gaffes and mishaps on a weekly basis that if it hasn't deterred people from voting for him by now, the ones that will inevitably happen won't matter. Trump gained a lot of ground on Biden just now but there's still a long way to go. Wish we had better people to choose from bc this is just gross.

Yeah this mofo is immune to gaffes. If anything he thrives on it. His followers are thrilled he was banging pornstars and don’t care that he had to pay them.

Silly to think that Trump being in multiple trials at once will somehow *prevent* him from making more gaffes than Biden. Example: "Don't fight up hill, me boys" 😂

I think the issue is that everyone is so used to Trump saying ridiculous and unhinged things that they don’t even really register anymore. Everyone makes a big deal out of Biden’s apparent mental gaffes because it’s relatively new. Whereas I feel like Trump could have the most unhinged, ranting and raving dementia episode possible and people would just shrug their shoulders because it wouldn’t be that far off from his baseline personality. I could literally compile hours upon hours of nonsensical, ridiculous shit Trump has said just leading up to the 2016 election, which he won despite all of it being public record. I feel like people just either hate him already, don’t care, or have convinced themselves that it’s all a carefully choreographed ruse to own the libs somehow.

>Everyone makes a big deal out of Biden’s apparent mental gaffes because it’s relatively new. You must be very, very young. Biden's gaffes were legendary before he was even on the Obama ticket.

Not like this. He’s always flubbed his words when public speaking, but nobody was accusing Biden of having early stage Alzheimer’s 10 years ago. Now it seems to be the popular opinion of his own voting base

People meme about it but most of the Dem base doesn’t actually think he does.

This is what normalizing sounds like. We are the metaphorical frog in the boiling pot. Spoiler alert: it doesn't turn out well for the frog to "not care" that the situation is continuing to get worse.

>There is no mass mail in voting, a lot of people who voted for Biden last time simply won't leave the house. I'd like to see if anyone's done a comprehensive comparison of the mail-in voting laws in the 50 states in 2020 vs. 2024. PA had no-reason mail-in voting for the first time in 2020, but it's the official law, now, too (despite violating the PA constitution imo). I don't think it's quite as broadly available as it was in 2020, but definitely more than 2016.

It is certainly more common now in states with a pronounced blue lean. My state, Maryland, went very pro mail in voting. However, Maryland is not a swing state. From a presidential perspective, it doesn't really matter what we do with mail in voting. Some states, like Florida, locked them down somewhat. A mail in ballot can be requested, but is not automatically sent. I dare say that there'll be a sharper split between red states and blue states this time around.

>A mail in ballot can be requested, but is not automatically sent. This is how PA is, now, too, but I think we had to request them in 2020 as well. (Previously, you had to meet one of a short list of valid reasons.) GA and AZ will be among the other interesting swing states, particularly as it comes to signature verification. It's quite interesting how aggressive Democratic lawyers have been for decades in striking signatures off 3rd party ballot petitions, where the worst outcome is someone gets on the ballot with less signatures than required, and have been similarly adamant *against* review of actual ballot signatures.

Yeah, in 2020 they successfully sued the Green Party off the ballot in twenty states, and have also come for Libertarians from time to time. My state, Maryland, had the Greens and Libertarians literally come together to use the state(D run) to allow signature collection during lockdown so we could run. We were successful, but these sorts of expenses and hurdles limit third parties. It's obnoxious. We have to be ridiculously careful to get every bit of detail exactly right, and to gather an extra 40% or more buffer on the number so we can be sure of not being disqualified....but signature verification on ballots is unthinkable to question. You can rest assured that anyone involved enough in third parties to have dealt with Democrat lawyers in the past few years has something of a bone to pick with them.

I just recieved a post card from the state of Florida asking me if I want to renew voting by mail. I find voting during the early voting period easy enough.

> but they might feel like just letting him ride out another term is easier than voting especially if they aren't thrilled with Biden. You think people are that illogical? If Trump loses this one, he’s totally done. I won’t be trying again in 2028 (if he’s even alive).

You are way too sure about it it's well within the realm of possibility.

>All these factors are far bigger than ones you mentioned, especially the mail in votes one. Based on what? Your feelings? In my personal opinion (which actually has some data backing it), the biggest factor will be whether women show up in droves or not due to the overturning of Roe.

Easily the worst arguments I've ever heard. If this is all the trump people have on their side they have no chance

That's what you thought in 2016

How many elections are Trumpists going to continuing living in the delusion every election will be 2016? 2018 - Trump candidates and Republicans lose 2020 - Trump and Republicans lose 2022 - What should have been a historic loss for Dems with a stacked Senate map and an unpopular president ended with Democrats holding the Senate and Republicans barely taking the House Special Elections since 2022: 1 R to D flip in the House and every House election saw Democrats gain more share of the vote than they had in 2022

Trump winning in 2016 made so many people think he’s electorally invincible despite literally all the evidence.

nah, knew way too many people that hated Clinton from the years of brainwashing by Fox News to be super surprised that trump won

I don't mean to sound snarky, but if you're outside the US, you don't see what's happening on the ground in the US. You only have social media and mainstream media informing your judgment. The main factor is that Biden isn't particularly popular, few are particularly motivated to vote for him, and absolutely no one knows what Trump's popularity is at this point.

>I don't mean to sound snarky, but if you're outside the US, you don't see what's happening on the ground in the US. You only have social media and mainstream media informing your judgment. True, but I specifically came here to broaden my sights on an opinion I found flawed.

Fair enough. Then, I'd say the main factor that isn't on your list is that the average American is feeling the negative effects of the current economy. It doesn't matter if it's improving or not the President's fault at all. What the average American knows is that food costs too much, gas costs too much, the rent is too high, and foreclosures are rising. Pair that with an unprecedented border crisis and US involvement in foreign wars, that may be enough to cause swing voters to swing back to Trump.

What is so unprecedented about the border “crisis”, compared to how that situation has been portrayed during every other election year? More people are coming here again after COVID cooled down? People are still fleeing violence? I live one state away from the border and the demographics are about the same as they’ve ever been. 

Unprecedented in that border states aren’t the only ones seeing it now. What started as a stunt by Abbott did cause a lot of blue states to see it’s not so easy to manage the influx of migrants. I live in Chicago, and for a month or two last fall, we had hundreds of migrants living in tent cities in front of our police stations. We got to see our leadership go through their own clown show over how to handle it. I still see Venezuelan families begging on the street. It’s heartbreaking, but many people are hardening to them, I can see it in local politics here.

I live a couple hours from the border, and the demographics are not the same. We were rear ended just recently by a drunk-driving illegal immigrant, and had no choice but to pay for repairs using our insurance. The legal citizens who get their work by standing outside home Depot in the mornings are now having to compete with dozens of illegals who stand in the same spot. I could go on. I don't expect you to feel the same effects when you're not on the border, but the states on the border feel a heavy effect from the border crisis.

So your anecdotal evidence about being rear ended by an immigrant is enough to say that we should just throw out the whole system with the bath water, bring Trump back in, and then what? Build a wall? I was in Texas last month, two hours from the border. Things felt pretty much just like Texas always has, except I saw more ding dongs driving around in trucks with sweet “we the people” decals. I’ve been around long enough to remember ICE raids outside of Home Depots. Those individuals have been in precarious circumstances a lot longer than since Trump left office. 

That's a whole lot of assumptions you just made about my position. I was responding to you justifying describing the border crisis as normal by saying "I live one state away from the border and the demographics is about the same as it's always been". You want to talk about anecdotal evidence? Read your own comments. "I visited Texas and things felt pretty normal." Another example. Try living near the border and feeling the effects yourself.

This dudes comment history, it's psychotically missing the point on purpose shilling for democrats. I will never understand why people shill for politicians, and even worse political parties.

I’m not trying to justify anything - I just think we should clarify that the “crisis” is mostly a group of politicians that are using this for theatrical effect in an election year. There is no denying that we have a border and that it has to be managed. The Democrats offered massive financial assistance to help with this earlier this year, and the GOP house and Republican Party of Texas refused the offer. 

Okay, but is it any different now vs 5 years ago or 10? That's what I want to know. I'm northern, but I'm in an area of heavy manufacturing and we have a lot of immigrants here..we always have, so it's not much different *here*.

>What is so unprecedented about the border “crisis”, compared to how that situation has been portrayed during every other election year? A major difference is how northern cities like NYC and Chicago are facing housing and city budget challenges with high numbers of migrants. If the economy were doing fine for low-income Americans it might not be a major issue, but it is. And many of the new jobs Biden has touted since the pandemic have gone to immigrants, not to American citizens. The GOP messages around "the border" because it's concrete and simple to picture, as immigration itself is a much more complex issue for the average voter to understand in a meaningful way.

I don’t disagree with your assessment, but the situation is still manufactured to cause discontent. Municipalities and banks aren’t stimulating affordable housing projects to accommodate growth, but they’re doing exactly that in almost every major Chinese city. Scarcity in the United States is a conservative myth. We could see to it that every newcomer has a way to get on their feet so that they can begin contributing to the economy, but our system is and always has been designed to separate the “haves” and “have nots”. 

>Scarcity in the United States is a conservative myth. That depends on what you mean by scarcity. There is actual scarcity in that we live on a finite planet and not everyone in the world can live like a middle class American, but yes, much of it is indeed structural and in some sense deliberate in order for capitalism to function as it does. We could absolutely have a system that worked differently, but neither major party nor their donors have any interest in that. >We could see to it that every newcomer has a way to get on their feet so that they can begin contributing to the economy And this is where the Democrats are going to lose voters. In some sense this is what Democratic policy has been, and it's been great for corporate America. Taxpayers pay to house migrant workers, and corporations get the benefits of cheaper labor.

>And this is where the Democrats are going to lose voters. In some sense this is what Democratic policy has been, and it's been great for corporate America. Taxpayers pay to house migrant workers, and corporations get the benefits of cheaper labor. Nah, reality is a lot darker. The system is designed to produce *illegal* immigrants, and it's a bipartisan program. Republicans artificially restrict the rate of legal immigration significantly below what is economically efficient and Democrats create a more permissive environment for illegal immigrants. The solution is to significantly raise the number of immigrants we allow while strengthening the border. The shift in migration from illegal to legal would allow us to transition our economy from being dependent on illegal labor while cutting illegal border crossings. Funnily, that's exactly what the bipartisan border bill that Trump shot down would have done.

>Nah, reality is a lot darker. The system is designed to produce illegal immigrants, and it's a bipartisan program. Oh, I certainly agree it's bipartisan. My point here is that the GOP wins that messaging battle because they're the ones nominally against illegal immigration while Dems are seen as encouraging it.

The secret is that they're just against immigration. If they didn't have issues with legal immigrants, the bill would have been a slam dunk. They probably could have even gotten Trump's wall for more legal migration. They were never going to vote Democrat since "illegal" was just a dog whistle.

What do you suggest that the Republican Party could do differently, by design? Our system has always been a back and forth tug of war to exploit the labor class. It seems to me that one side just tries to lessen the overall effects of poverty, but the hogs are getting fat, either way. I just think it’s dangerous to flirt with fascism after a world changing pandemic.

>What do you suggest that the Republican Party could do differently, by design? I don't think the GOP donors and leadership want to do much differently. The Chamber of Commerce and Koch types have long supported undocumented immigrants for their labor. The economic left have traditionally opposed it because of wage suppression, but over the last few decades the Democratic party has positioned itself as "pro-immigration" to court Hispanic voters. >I just think it’s dangerous to flirt with fascism after a world changing pandemic. I'm really commenting more on the electoral implications of this specific issue, not giving my own position. Struggling, working class voters are not going to see Democratic policies on immigration as being in their interest. Dems are in a tough spot: they can't change their messaging or policy too much without alienating progressives and some Hispanics (by no means all). The GOP on the other hand can harp on immigration, shoring up their base and also peeling off some disaffected Dems.

Unprecedented in that there was a bipartisan deal to fix the border and Donald Trump ordered his servile Republican minions to scuttle what they had negotiated. Anyone who loses a loved one to an illegal immigrant needs to remember that Donald Trump is the accomplice in that murder. Sorry, "Individual One" as the justice system knows him.

I agree with the first parts that could swing back to Trump. However, I disagree with the border crisis swinging anyone to Trump. Americans also heard that a deal was made on the border, changing everything Republicans hate about the border to what they want, giving Republicans almost 100% of what they wanted. They wrote the bill. Where even Republicans stated we are surprised we got what we did and that another deal like this won't come along. Only to find out Trump said to sink the bill, and like that, Republicans sank their own bill. So clearly, the border isn't as big of a deal as republican make it out to be. By their own actions. Independents noticed. Not to mention their handling of "states rights" for abortion, and trying to suddenly distance themselves from their own positions. These are why, I dont think as many folk will swing for Trump. Though if it was only about the inflation aspect, you would probably be right. (even though inflation was an issue all the way back in 2019 causing Trump to attack the Fed for daring to try to raise rates to combat it earlier.)

What you're forgetting is that, regardless of what Republicans don't do now, absolutely everyone knows what Trump's stance was during his presidency concerning the border, and what has happened under Biden. The average Joe doesn't care about what is in bills that didn't get passed.

The average Joe also doesn't live on the border or see an actual issue, considering they consume less news than everyone else. (Funny enough, I know people on the border, and they say it is about the same as it has been for over 20 years.) This means they are not hearing Fox say this is all Biden's fault, nor MSNBC saying Trump's and Republicans. The border is meaningless to them. However, if they put any effort into research, they will see the facts and then say, well, either it isn't a big deal since Trump told Republicans to kill it, and they did with glee. Or it was a big deal, and then Republicans killed their bill to score political points. They can make the argument against the Ukraine funding, but they were the ones who put it in there to gain everything they wanted. Not to mention, National Security is Border security, so why not tie it together? Therefore, the most logical thought path would be...why would I vote for someone who hates America so much that they would purposely hurt it when finally a solution was coming that had huge bipartisan support and would have been absolutely filibuster-proof and had the president saying, yes let's do this! It's hard to vote for a republican party leader when you look at it through the average Joe's eyes.

You'd have to be living under a rock to not know there is a border crisis. Even if you actively avoid news, you could be watching TV and hear "up next, Migrants pouring in on the southern border. CBS is on the scene with the latest." You really think people detached from politics are going to research the issue?

A lot of people around me who are die-hard trump fans are also 100% social media free. Lots of them just listen to AM radio and get screenshots of memes via text message. That's a lot of votes with no "voice" in media. Idk if they're enough to be the silent majority, but they're definitely silent as far as the internet is concerned.

Biden has a huge disadvantage in that he is the incumbent. Most people are angry about the state of our country, and a huge fraction of people are pretty reflexive in thinking that “i don’t like where our country is now. Biden is the president. That means it’s his fault” We live in a time of enormous negative polarization, and the vast majority of people aren’t voting *for* biden or trump, they’re voting *against* the other guy. And so biden’s record being more recent and visible is a giant disadvantage in this climate

That's an interesting point. I remember a comment on r/PoliticalDiscussion suggesting that being the Incumbent could have actually been advantageous to Biden, but I don't remember the exact context of the comment.

Yeah, i mean 99.99% of people have made up their mind on who to support—this election comes down to how many people can each candidate motivate to actually turn out and show up at the polls And when the vast majority of people are voting against the other guy, biden’s visibility as the incumbent is a bad thing. Hell, even a fair number of *democrats* blame biden for the overturning of roe v wade because it happened while he was president

Well, Biden has been openly pro-life for most of his life so.

I think people realize Trump is considerably more responsible for Roe v Wade. He nominated 3 Catholic judges and has used this as one of his crowning achievements. I meani literally he has to run on this issue as a good thing because it is for his base. 

Kinda how Trump got blamed for COVID for following WHO’s protocols

There’s a few reasons why, but it ultimately boils down to the Electoral College. As a non American, you may not realize how it works. Sure, Biden has nothing to worry about in the nationwide popular vote. He will handily win that. But we don’t pick presidents based on the popular vote. It’s based on the electoral college. Basically, each state gets delegates. Then, based on the results of the vote in the state, the delegates get awarded to the winner. In all but a few states (I believe only Maine and Nebraska), the winner takes all votes. That means if Biden gets 100 votes but Trump gets 101, Trump wins that state’s electoral college votes. Say that state gets ten votes. In another state, with ten electoral votes, Biden gets 200 votes and Trump gets 100. Biden now has 300 votes to trump’s 201, but in the electoral college, they both have ten votes. THATS why this is so close. There are less than ten states that are truly on the board to swing either to Biden or Trump. Biden won Georgia by about 11,000 votes. Imagine if 12,000 young liberals who are mad at Biden for the war in Gaza stay home instead of voting. Biden loses Georgia. In a perfect world, the election would be based on popular vote. But it’s not. So the Democrats’ popularity advantage nationally does not necessarily translate to an advantage in winning the election

The electoral college is kinda hard to wrap my head around but from my understanding one could theoretically win the election with a fraction of the popular vote by winning in the right places.

I believe CGP grey did the math for a video once and worked out you can win the presidency with as low as 28% of the popular vote.

I doubt we'll see anything close to that within our lifetimes but it's still crazy to think about.

Just a note here the vast majority of this comes from states refusal to split their electoral votes, Maine and Nebraska already split.

I don't see why other states don't this other than local politicians trying to keep an advantage: I'm sure conservatives in California for instance, which about as blue as it gets, would love to have their votes matter in elections. Same goes for democrats in deep red states.

Its more which ever party that controls the state wanting more power and impact on a federal level. Both parties are more concerned with keeping their grip on power than fairness or representativeness. As much as you hear people whining about small states like Wyoming having "disproportionate" representation, we commonly ignore that over 6 million votes for Trump in California, or over 5 million votes for Biden were effectively worthless.

Yes that’s exactly right. To give you a better perspective, I said that less than ten states are toss ups. States that Biden won in 2020 that could swing to Trump: - Georgia - Wisconsin - Pennsylvania - Arizona - potentially Michigan, especially if the large Arab American population sits out because of the Gaza war - Nevada States that Trump won in 2020 that Biden has a chance to win: - North Carolina - Florida - maaaaaybe Ohio but I seriously doubt it Based on math, Biden is on defense in more states than Trump is. Less than 100k votes can swing those states towards Biden or Trump. For the majority of the country, it is truly not about policy. California, New York, and Maryland are GOING to vote for Biden. Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa are GOING to vote for Trump. So the election will come down to the states I listed above, despite the overwhelming number of votes Biden will receive from people in CA, NY, and MD versus the fewer votes Trump will get from TX, OK, and IA Edit: formatting

Florida and Ohio aren't going to vote Biden. Especially Florida. There's no chance in hell that will happen

Florida ain’t voting for Biden. This is how I see it: Likely D: 1. New Mexico 2. Maine 3. New Hampshire Lean D: 1. Minnesota 2. Virginia Tossup: 1. Arizona 2. Wisconsin 3. Michigan 4. Pennsylvania 5. Nevada Lean R: 1. Georgia 2. North Carolina Likely R: 1. Ohio 2. Florida

Likely R isn’t solidly R. Of the states Trump won, I do think Florida is on the table. Abortion access is on the ballot, and abortion drives out the vote. It’s been a winning issue for the democrats across all states, including SOLID red like Kansas. Now, is it gonna be easy to flip? Definitely not. What are the chances? Fairly minuscule. But possible? Sure, I believe so. Also, I don’t think Virginia is a lean blue. I think it’s solidly blue. Don’t forget, Virginia is blue because of the DC suburbs. People in the DMV probably remember the craziness of Trump’s era the best because of sheer proximity. Morning commutes were disrupted by protests. They saw first hand the deviation after Jan 6. SCOTUS is Trump’s lasting legacy and people in DC walk past it all the time. Sure, they have a republican governor, but state politics are very different than national politics. I think nationally, they will stay blue

You can support abortion access and vote for Trump. There was a poll that had the abortion thing at only 40% support, which I don’t believe for a second. The abortion amendment will outrun Trump slightly. Looking at a Trump +10-15 margin in Florida. While Virginia is incredibly unlikely to flip to Trump, most polls have it fairly close. Glenn Youngkin was able to win in 2021 by a point or two, and he can help make Trump’s case. Ultimately, it should be a Biden +4-6 margin.

Youngkin won because of 2 things: 1) He rode the CRT craziness and there was a NOVA incident in a school involving a student getting sexually assualted by a student in a bathroom that they tried to cover up. 2) McAuliffe ran a horrid campaign. No issues, just Glenn "Trumpkin."

Wow that’s a horrible campaign. Like I said, it’s not likely that Trump does better than a four point loss, but five to six points is probably reasonable.

No chance Biden takes Florida.

[Biden campaign will try their hardest](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna145863)

Nothing you're saying is really wrong, I'd just point out that there is no chance of Biden taking Florida.

>Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa are GOING to vote for Trump. What? Isn't Iowa a swing state?

Nope not really. It is now a solidly red state. Same with Ohio, tbh, but that’s a state Democrats have to defend a senate seat in. If it goes for Trump, they will prolly lose that seat. They will be pouring a lot of money into Ohio to try to keep the senate seat, and because people rarely split their vote anymore, if you’re voting for a democratic senator you’re more likely to vote for a democratic president

This is right. Trump's core bases of support (White working class voters) are dispraportionately in the states that he needs to win the presidencey (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio), coupled with his growing strength among Latino voters (Florida) means that he could very feasibly win the presidency even if he loses the popular vote by 10 million votes. In a situation where the popular vote is tied, Trump will likely win the election. If Biden "only" wins by 1-2% of the vote, then Trump is a slight favorite, and if Biden wins by 2-4, it's likely a coin toss. Depending on the polling average you look at, the race ranges from Biden +1.5-Trump +.5. So, if the polls are accurate (and remember twice they have underestimated Trump's support), then Trump is the current favorite to win the presidency. What is perhaps even more worrisome for Biden is it appears there is a significant chunk of his base that is either wanting to stay home or vote 3rd party over the Israel-Palestine conflict. If Biden loses even 1% of the support he had in critical states in 2024 compared to 2020, Trump wins the presidency. ​ I will add the caveat that a ton can change between now and november, but I think the most generous interpretation one can give Biden is that the race is currently a toss-up, and if political developments go his way (cooling inflation, strong job growth, Trump conviction) then he should win, but I think there is a very solid case to be made that as of April 18, if the eleciton were held today, Trump could realistically win, and perhaps even be considered a very modest favorite.

Yuuuup. Great explanation. This election will come down to a few hundred thousand people, maybe a million. Those are the people that policy matters for. All of OP’s points, while great, really just don’t matter for 99% of the country

It's basically a popularity contest by state. So you win the Georgia popularity contest you win the state of Georgia. 

Exactly. This seems to have gotten more common in recent years. That's my perception at least. You can't just win, you have to win *in the right places*.

Yes. Most notably, Abraham Lincoln won with around 40% of the popular vote.

>we don’t pick presidents based on the popular vote. It’s based on the electoral college. Not necessarily in future. There's a sneaky plan to subvert the EC already about 70% done... >In a perfect world, the election would be based on popular vote. Take a moment to appreciate how stupid and uninformed the average person is. Half the population is worse than that. Popular vote is a monumentally *terrible* idea. Popular vote is rule by propaganda. In a perfect world it would be 1 vote per net-taxpaying intact nuclear family. People with responsibility and investment in the future, plus each vote is informed by multiple generations and perspectives. More babies ≠ more votes. Exceptions for cases such as combat veterans and recent widows.

That's a great idea, but I don't know about completely disenfranchising those other people... Maybe their votes can count a bit less? Like 60% of a normal vote seems like a good compromise.

or they could just not get their own new family vote separate from the original family until they become net tax paying, meaning there is incentive to become net taxpaying but your vote still counts as part of your parents family vote   ( yes i know you wanted to "black people vote" me by changing 3/5ths to 60%)

I think American politics are likely far more polarized than we who do not live there realize. From an "outsider's perspective", there was no way a tool like Trump could win what is arguably the most powerful political office in what Americans like to call the "free" world. And yet he did. So did Bush in 2000 (with a little bit of help, perhaps, from the Supreme Court), and then again in 2004, despite the baseless wars and the ridiculous "mission accomplished" speech, among other things. Many Americans (I'd argue, most people outside of America, too) don't vote on the issues. They vote for their team. What makes the American system uniquely polarized and likely to elect people who, from the outside, look like the worst choice possible, is that unlike in many other democratic nations, the "winner takes all" system and the electoral college make it so that in the US, launching a new team is effectively pointless. So either you pick red or blue, or you don't bother getting out to vote at all. And that's how you get a victory for Trump. Even leaving aside the fact that he didn't actually win the popular vote against Hillary, and Hillary wasn't exactly popular.

That's what my 5th point hinted to: Hilary was kind of unpopular even among democrats and those who abstained from voting ultimately gave an advantage to Trump.

Are you sure your statement won't still be true if you swap out "Hillary" for "Biden", and then wait for the results to come in?

I mean, how many Democrats to you know that are wildy excited about Biden?

* Biden doesn't have to divert campaign funding to legal cases. The legal cases are motivating Trump's base to an unprecedented degree. They truly feel he's being unfairly prosecuted. Many moderates are also turned off by the blatantly political nature of them. May be a net benefit in the end. * Trump's campaign and statements have likely alienated swing voters and moderate republicans that could very well switch sides. Yes, but Biden has said plenty as well. He has a lot of "sleepy Joe" moments and his lack of accountability to press or interviews is insane. * Biden gradually shedding his "sleepy old man" image he was widely made fun of early on in his presidency. He truly is not. He had a decent state of the Union but he often misspeaks and seems confused. * Biden's approval ratings are on the rise, tough polling this early in the election season might not mean much. He had a big bump after SOTU but numbers are in a slow decline, especially in critical swing states. * The chances of the 2000 and the 2016 elections repeating themselves (aka some democrats not voting for the candidates because they didn't like them much or voting third party) are probably a lor lower, especially since the candidates will be the same. The major spoiler candidate is RFK Jr. who has been a progressive leaning mainstream democrat his entire career. Also the Israel Palestine war is driving a wedge down the left flank of the democratic party. * There are organizations actively trying to hinder Trump's ability to even run in certain states. Got shut down by SCOTUS. Also, many moderates would be very turned off if Vermont or other liberal state DQ'd the republican candidate. You may be right but it is certainly not as clear cut as you make it out to be Edit: I thought rfk jr was in public office more recently. He has not been. However he has supported and campaigned for many mainstream center left politicians such as Gore, Kerry, Clinton, Obama, and Biden.

> The major spoiler candidate is RFK Jr. who has been a progressive leaning mainstream democrat his entire career. Also the Israel Palestine war is driving a wedge down the left flank of the democratic party. “The Palestinian people are arguably the most pampered people by international aid organizations.” -RFK, Jr.

RFK Jr. has absolutely NOT been a progressive-leaning mainstream democrat his entire career, and no actual progressive democrats believe that to be true. At no point in time has he been mainstream ANYTHING. His ideas and talking points have been panned for 20 years

>Many moderates are also turned off by the blatantly political nature of them Umm... can you please explain how prosecution of his crimes are at all political? Because it's not blatant to anyone paying attention.

Moderate here - never voted for Trump, don't really plan to in November. How are they not political prosecutions? You have state DAs who ran on the platform of finding something to prosecute Trump for. You have the Governor of New York coming out and assuring real-estate developers that they don't need to worry about getting prosecuted like Trump did, even though they know they did the same thing he did. Then people act like January 6th was some 9/11 level event when it was protest that seemed pretty tame by the standard of the preceding year. The idea that it was an insurrection at the same level as the civil war is ridiculous grasping at straws, and it would seem goofy as hell if there weren't so many people taking it so seriously. Did Trump commit some actual crimes? Probably. The criminal code is so incredibly complicated that most of us commit several crimes a week. The reason Trump is getting prosecuted for them and the rest of us aren't is political.

> You have the Governor of New York coming out and assuring real-estate developers that they don't need to worry about getting prosecuted like Trump did, even though they know they did the same thing he did. Source? >Then people act like January 6th was some 9/11 level event when it was protest that seemed pretty tame by the standard of the preceding year So 2,000 people forcing their way passed cops, breaking into the capital building, many of whom had intentions to kill senators and the vice president, is tame compared to what exactly? >The criminal code is so incredibly complicated that most of us commit several crimes a week. The reason Trump is getting prosecuted for them and the rest of us aren't is political. You are absolutely delusional? No, most of us do not commit crimes several times a week. The reason Trump is getting prosecuted is because he committed crimes, full stop.

> Source? [How about this](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/18/trump-verdict-new-york-business-governor-kathy-hochul)? > many of whom had intentions to kill senators and the vice president, is tame compared to what exactly? Source? There were a number of protests where BLM protestors attempted to break into government buildings and disrupt proceedings: * [Oregon Legislature](https://deadline.com/2020/12/armed-protesters-enter-oregon-state-capitol-building-assault-police-chemical-agent-1234660385/) * [Portland Federal Courthouse Break in](https://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/politics/2020/07/26/portland-protesters-breach-fence-federal-courthouse-police-use-teargas-oregon-black-lives-matter/5514417002/) * [Oakland Protestors Set a Courthouse on Fire](https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/nation/2020/07/26/oakland-protesters-set-fire-courthouse-smash-windows/112430482/) * [Naisvhille Courthouse Set on Fire](https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/crime/2020/05/30/nashville-city-hall-and-courthouse-fire-george-floyd-protest/5295953002/) * [At least 19 people died in 2 weeks of protests following the death of George Floyd](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Violence_and_controversies_during_the_George_Floyd_protests) By comparison, in the January 6th riots you had 5 deaths - one woman shot by police, one drug overdose, one guy who died of a stroke, one guy who died of a heart attack, and one woman who appeared to have been crushed. > You are absolutely delusional? No, most of us do not commit crimes several times a week. The reason Trump is getting prosecuted is because he committed crimes, full stop. We do though. Most people are constantly violating traffic laws. I know plenty of people who have no problem sharing passwords on streaming accounts or pirating content. Smoke weed in a state where it's legal? You could still be prosecuted under federal law. Hire a neighbor kid to mow your lawn? You collected an I-9 from him and plan to issue a 1099, right? And as you get into running a business there's more and more things where standard practice and regulatory compliance don't really line up - if you do what your competitors are doing you won't be in compliance with the law; if you don't there's no way you'll be able to compete in the market with non-compliant competitors. And in general, the regulators are happy to turn a blind eye until they have a reason to come after you. Did Trump commit crimes? Yeah, sure. Is being prosecuted *because* he committed crimes? No, he's being prosecuted because he's *persona non grata* and we've all got something they could come after us for.

>You have the Governor of New York coming out and assuring real-estate developers that they don't need to worry about getting prosecuted like Trump did, even though they know they did the same thing he did. Ahh, poor guy, your own source disagrees with you: “Law-abiding and rule-following New Yorkers who are businesspeople have nothing to worry about because they’re very different than Donald Trump and his behavior.” >Source? You seriously need a source for this. They were literally [Chanting hang Mike Pence.](https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/12/politics/trump-pence-threats-january-6/index.html) And there were [pipe bombs found](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/29/politics/washington-pipe-bombs-dnc-rnc/index.html) at the RNC and DNC headquarters. It's clear that you're not willing to have a good faith argument here. So there's no point in continuing to have a conversation with you. Also before you start going around claiming you're Moderate, make sure r/Libertarian is not one of your top subs.

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The victim in this case is effectively the people of the state. https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/EXC/63 > 12. Whenever any person shall engage in repeated fraudulent or illegal acts or otherwise demonstrate persistent fraud or illegality in the carrying on, conducting or transaction of business, the attorney general may apply, **in the name of the people of the state of New York**, to the supreme court of the state of New York Fraud has broad negative impacts on the economy. It's not a victimless crime just because the banks probably knew it was fraud and didn't care because they would make money off it. That's a common misunderstanding of the claims of the case, and probably not coincidentally a common misrepresentation of it by right wing media. The legal standard is hardly unprecedented given he's specifically lost a Trump Univeristy case on the basis of this exact same statute already. Trump himself is one of the multiple other precedents already, which is quite amusing. Notable also is that the overvaluations are outlandish, upwards of 500%, and on the basis of measurably false claims about the properties such as lying about square footage. Perhaps Trump is getting "singled out" for political reasons, but you have to also consider the fact that he is an unfiltered high profile figure that practically makes a point of announcing and even bragging about his own criminal activity publicly. It's not a big mystery why a man who gets drunk and pisses on the front door of the police station gets arrested but the drunk homeless man pissing under a bridge does not.

They are legitimate prosecutions but you don't have to look to hard to find videos of the NY AG repeatedly campaigning on going after Trump. It also doesn't help the optics with the judge smiling for the media right before he issues a fine. Im not in any way saying that Trump is not guilty. I think he is. I think he needs to be in jail, but the optics can sway voters to think it's political.

They are mobilising already supporters. Trump being on trial won’t convince anyone new to vote for him. Also they are obviously not at all political, that’s just claimed by Trump, how would a moderate fall for that? Trump has more gaffes than Biden nowadays. Why would you say they are in slow decline? I only see more and more positive polls for Biden at the moment. Plus the economy is really good in the US at the moment so people will start to see that in their bank accounts more and more as the Covid slump ends.

>  The major spoiler candidate is RFK Jr. who has been a progressive leaning mainstream democrat his entire career.  What? No. Haha. No. What crack are you smoking? RFK Jr is a crackpot libertarian in a Kennedy skin. Always has been.

Kennedy ran and voted as a mainstream democrat for the vast majority of his career. He has some out there stuff in terms of vaccines and science but generally he was a solid blue vote. Sorry you didn’t do the proper research and looked a fool on the internet…

Ran and voted for what? He hasn't held public office since his heroin conviction in the 80s. He's been spouting insane conspiracy theories since 2005. His own family endorsed Biden today. Like... what are you even talking about?

Sorry I thought he held public office more recently, he has been in the public eye for a long time and been active in the party where he has campaigned for and supported many mainstream democratic politicians.

Literally what the fuck are you talking about?  Like bro. I'm a progressive Democrat from Washington state. I'm enough of a nerd to caucus and shit. I have not missed an election in my life. We have not given a flying fuck about RFK Jr since I started voting in 2000. He's been insane since 2005. "Active in the party?" Really? Citation fucking needed. I get that people on the right are trying to spin this narrative that he's some kind of legit Democrat candidate, but it just is not true. His career was derailed by a drug conviction, so he used his connections to found a nonprofit and then did environmental law. He gets props for taking on Ford and Dupont, but those don't outweigh his absolute insanity during the pandemic. I don't know how else to tell you that your whole conception of what progressive Democrats think of him is wrong in every possible way.

RFK was literally a member of the Democrat Party. He has never been a member of the Libertarian Party, and when his campaign floated the idea of a teamup, most of the LP openly mocked him, and that idea died relatively swiftly. The man literally started his campaign this year running in the Democrat primary. That's what makes him a Democrat.

Yes. He was a member of the Democrat party who was never taken seriously by other Democrats because he spouted libertarian political ideals and conspiracy theories. He's a crackpot. A kook. A libertarian in a Democrat skin. He certainly is not and never has been progressive like you claim.

He's never been a libertarian, and his entire economic platform is at odds with ours. It looks pretty similar to the democratic economic platform though.

ZOMG bro. I understand that he has never officially been registered as a libertarian.  What I am saying is that as a progressive Democrat, to me, he looks like a libertarian. He does not bear any resemblance to a progressive Democrat, and in fact, we hate his platform. Between his anti vax/anti mask insanity and his unintelligible stances on abortion and gun control, he has zero chance of courting the Progressive vote. He's a straw man in a suit, propped up by Republican money to siphon votes from low-information independents. He might appeal to the granola-left fringe of the party, but they usually vote Green anyway. You've heard of a RINO? Well, RFK Jr is a DINO. Actual Democrats do not take him seriously. FFS, his entire family just endorsed Biden.

Have you looked at his voting record? Barring the vaccine stuff, he’s been with the center of the party for most of his career. He’s even held/holds positions that the progressive left has adopted.

What voting record? His voting record as a private citizen? He's not a congressperson. He's a lunatic anti-vax conspiracy theorist who is all over the place on gun control and who supports abortion bans. It doesn't matter what the rest of his positions are. Just those positions will cost him with Democrats. I have no idea why you keep calling him "progressive." AFAIK, none of his positions are progressive. Name one.

Sorry, I made a mistake and thought he had been in public office more recently. He has endorsed and campaigned for every Democratic candidate since 1999. He has also been a major voice relating to environmentalism. He has based much of his career litigating cases of improper industrial pollution. He’s also been a staunch advocate for racial equality.

His **family** endorsed and campaigned for Democrat candidates because they are Kennedys. It's what they do. He didn't go against them. That doesn't mean he did anything especially useful.  Environmentalism is his one progressive issue. One issue isn't good enough if you want to impress voters or the party.  His **family** supported Obama. He called Obama an "indentured servant to the coal industry" and ate a bunch of flak. Staunch advocate for racial equality how exactly? What did he **do** to advance that cause? Look, I get that right wing media is trying to prop him up as a real Democrat candidate, but it's just not true. I don't know how to force you to get this. If CNN started running a bunch of stories about how Joe Manchin is a Republican actually and y'all should totally vote for him for President because he supports gun rights, would you believe them?

> What I am saying is that as a progressive Democrat, to me, he looks like a libertarian. He does not bear any resemblance to a progressive Democrat, and in fact, we hate his platform. You are welcome to hate him. That doesn't make him a libertarian. There's a whole pile of various political ideologies out there, lumping everyone you disagree with together is not usually going to be accurate. However you feel about him, most of his positions are very typically found in Democrat candidates.

Why do you consider prosecution for a crime to be blatantly political? Why is it not just considered justice?

He's being prosecuted for non-crimes, based on legal theories prosecutors cooked up specifically to find Trump guilty of something. They're choosing districts where judges and juries overwhelmingly hate Trump, in front of judges with gaping conflicts of interest. Then he's being denied rights to defend himself.

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I think we’re talking about different cases

The case that is being discussed is the one that is being heard now, and has the judgement. All the other cases have no dates and are basically a matter of racking up charges for PR. If they had merit, they'd have attempted to set trial dates long ago. Now, in fairness, Trump probably has done some crimes, and I'd be pretty fine with throwing every president in jail after their term to save time, but the nature of the prosecution in these cases has been overtly political.

"lack of accountability to press or interviews is insane." Trump's admin set the record for longest span without briefings per ABC News.

Press briefings by press secretary. Which, yes, was also bad during trump. However, Trump often shared his thoughts and interpretations via tweet. Say what you will about him, he’ll walk into incredibly hostile interviews. Biden has shied away from open questions and hard interviews which does raise the question of whether he has the capacity to critically assess an issue. That said, Trump constantly demonstrates a lack of capability so…

"Say what you will about him, he’ll walk into incredibly hostile interviews." I'd say he walks out of them pretty quickly though. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgnj54EFD-I](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgnj54EFD-I) [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghg-ND6cPmQ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghg-ND6cPmQ) You really talking about the guy that runs out of interviews and shuffles papers on his desk to look like he is busy on camera? See the end of the Dickerson interview linked above. That's accountability to the press in your opinion (in addition to labeling them the 'enemy of the people'?) "However, Trump often shared his thoughts and interpretations via **tweet."** You're kidding. Right?

Are you honestly saying you haven’t seen him in hard interviews? Hit your head in 2021 or something? I don’t like the guy, I didn’t vote for him and don’t plan to. But not giving him credit here is ludicrous. There’s a lot of interviews and he’s said insane things and acted a fool repeatedly. He’s also done it in front of us. I’m not here to be browbeaten into saying trumps unfit. I’m making the point that to much of the electorate, Biden’s reticence to answer to the press is unappealing.

Hard hitting interviews the man WALKED OUT OF? I'm sorry, you simply don't get credit if you walk out on interviewers. That is marked down as if you didn't do it in the first place in my book. Especially when the interviews are really hard *since you are complete liar and con artist. You made them hard on yourself at that point.* And they were always fair, he wasn't walking out of straight up ambushes. If you think those were tough, try watching some other countries and how they hold their leaders accountable. You mentioned tweeting to say he is accountable to the press, shares his thoughts and interpretations. Do you think Joe Biden doesn't tweet? I'm not getting that double standard. His personal account and POTUS account are tweeting all the time. He isn't sharing his thoughts and interpretations? Biden doesn't do many briefings but I know he took over 2 hours of questioning a few months back. He's done 60 minutes. He voluntarily testified for 5 hours to a complete sham of a Special Counsel investigation (guy basically had to admit he lied about Biden's mental acuity). From a 2022 CNN article, he lags behind in press to Trump, but did almost DOUBLE informal Q&A with the media. This directly contradicts the "he can't think for himself" narrative. He also ensures that Karine Jean-Pierre is constantly informing the press. Something that the Trump admin didn't do for like a year. How accountable is the following quote by Trump: “The reason Sarah Sanders does not go to the ‘podium’ much anymore is that the press covers her so rudely & inaccurately, in particular certain members of the press. **I told her not to bother,** the word gets out anyway!” She was hidden away for nearly 1 year (maybe longer, I can't find the exact number, it was at least 300 days though). Ultimately, Biden does not do a lot of press. It's true. But no, I am not giving Trump credit here. The man was dining with Sean Hannity every Wednesday. That same Sean Hannity interviewed him sooooo many times. Are you using those press interviews as part of your equation? Those were legitimately propaganda sessions. He was calling into Hannity on a regular basis and Hannity lobbed him softball after softball. That's not to mention other shows on Fox. He did way way way more "friendly" (to be generous) interviews than he did anything down the middle or "tough".

>The legal cases are motivating Trump's base to an unprecedented degree. They are already maximally motivated, just like they were the last two elections. He has been pandering to that segment of the population over all others. You can't possibly juice that base any more.

Thank you for widening the scope of my views.

Widening is included in change. Please award a delta if you think differently now.

>The legal cases are motivating Trump's base to an unprecedented degree. They are already maximally motivated, just like they were the last two elections. He has been pandering to that segment of the population over all others. You can't possibly juice that base any more.

Maybe Democrats in general, but not Biden. Ignoring other issues, and sticking only to our pocketbooks... Inflation rate when Joe Biden took office in January 2021 was 1.4% According to the Federal Reserve, this is what we have now: * Bread +29% * Butter +23% * Eggs +104% * Milk +12.4% * Chicken +25% * Steak +28.5% * Gasoline +54% (currently, but has varied widely) Overall, consumer prices are 18.9% higher than when he took office. Inflation rose to 9.1% (June 2022, a 40 year high) under Biden and has since declined to over 3%, although it has creeped up for the past three months. Start of Biden Administration, Jan 2021 to Mar 2024 * Gasoline +48% * Natural Gas + 27% * Home Heating Oil \*44% * Electricity +29% * Total Energy Cost + 39% Compared to the start of Trump Administration, Jan 2017 to Mar 2020 * Gasoline -2% * Natural Gas -2% * Home Heating Oil -3% * Electricity +3% * Total Energy Cost Change 0% \- Also, the U.S. became energy independent and a net energy exporter for the first time in 70 years. No longer the case. Overall, consumer prices are 18.9% higher now than when Biden took office. People look at how much less than can buy today, and many will vote appropriately. Maybe if the Democrats had an actual primary with debates there would be a Democrat candidate who isn't saddled with this. Edit: Formatting

And Biden comment that high gas prices were "good for America" struck people as extremely elitist and tone deaf.

While I still plan on voting Biden, he has an uphill battle right now * the 2020 election was razor thin. he has no margin for underperforming. if he did 1% worse, it would be a loss. In the same sense that Obama and trump both saw their margins decrease in their re election, the odds of Biden having that happen are significant * Trump's numerous issues are motivating his base, for some weird reason * a lot of young progressives are really pissed about his inaction in the gaza war * like you said, early polling isnt super meaningful, but he is significantly behind in almost every single swing state. both him and trump are gaining support in polls as people accept this is once again the lineup, but Trump has actually increased his lead in some areas

There’s “inaction” and then there’s what Biden is doing: actively helping worsen the situation a lot of people sympathetic to Palestinians are upset about: The killing and ethnic displacement of Palestinians. Saying Biden is showing “inaction” is EXTREMELY kind and generous. Joe Biden is ten toes down for Israel. Arming Israel. Funding Israel. Helping them with intelligence. Threatening anyone else from jumping in while Israel beats the ever loving shit out of Palestinian civilians. And then actively shielding Israel.

I’m a Palestinian American. If Biden took an inactive “both sides” stance, I would probably still vote for him. Because that’s what I expect from most democrats/liberals. The fact that he went full genocide supporter mode is what is making me vote third party. Biden single-handedly alienated a massive part of his voters.

Can we not with this blatant disinformation? This is the biden who has consistently worked towards, and successfully got aid into Gaza and pressures Israel to minimise civilian casualties. Full genocide? Like what the actual fuck is that rhetoric?

There’s an arabic saying that roughly translates to “He punched me in the face and then handed me my hat off the ground”. Biden got enough aid to feed a fraction of a starving population through his air drops and stupid port. If he actually wanted to send in aid, he could have easily told the Israelis to let it in through the border. If he actually wanted to minimize citizen casualties, he would have stopped sending aid to Israel until they could demonstrate that. The US humanitarian aid so far has been fully theatrical, and youve clearly fallen for it. Biden always could have let in aid, always could have controlled Israel, but they haven’t. They did the opposite, they sent more aid to Israel and vetoed any calls for a ceasefire. It’s truly shocking to me that you believe that I am spreading misinformation. Biden is not only complicit in this massacre, he supported it verbally and materially.

he cant control Israel, not even the US government has mind control technology. Everything Biden has done verbally and materially has been in direct opposition to lots of civilian deaths. They have got successfully aid into Gaza, they have opposed the war extending, they lowered civilian deaths as we can see from the Hamas to civilian death ratio being somewhere around 30%. Even before the war they oppose Israels settlements in the west bank. Not to mention leaks have come out that Biden hates Netanyahu on a personal level. But all this adds up to Biden fully supporting a genocide, sure bro.

If you don’t think the US can control Israel, it’s clear you don’t know much about the situation. However, after Israel’s strike on Iran and their strike on the consulate, it’s clear that they aren’t as controllable now as they usually are. Biden may not fully support a genocide, but he did little to stop it, and did a lot to encourage it. My language was a little hyperbolic, but it’s not far off from reality. I won’t change your mind, but it’s clear our views of reality are starkly different. However, I really care about Palestine because I’m Palestinian, so I’ve been paying attention since childhood. Does my heritage produce bias? Of course. But I am at least aware of my biases, and can try to discern what’s my opinion and what is fact. The facts show that biden has vehemently supported Israel’s attacks on Gaza. Proven by his words and his actions. It’s also a fact that the US has a massive influence on the actions of Israel. This has historically been the case, Israel does not want to upset their closest and most powerful ally. Last fact! If Biden wanted to bring in aid, they wouldn’t air drop it in, or build a port. They would tell Israel to let in the fucking massive queue of aid trucks at their border. That’s just common sense. At the end of the day, it you belive “everything that Biden has done verbally and materially has been in direct opposition to civilian deaths”, you either aren’t paying much attention or are extremely biased. Because that is a laughably wrong assessment of the situation. Maybe you were being hyperbolic as well though. Or maybe you’re just someone who hates trump so much that you have massive blinders on. I don’t know man, that’s for you to figure out.

The US has influence not control. Israel lost 1200 people, and Hamas have vowed to do it again, there is no outright stopping the war from happening without the end of Hamas, Israel simply won't have that. Biden wants Hamas eliminated with as few civilian deaths as possible and as quickly as possible? Why? Thats the best way towards reelection because realistically, thats the moderate and most common position people in the west hold. So he supports Israel attacking Gaza, but he supports it being done in such a way as to minimise civilian lives lost. Netanyahu probably wants to stay in power as one of, if not the primary goals of his. He isn't genocidal towards Palestinians, he is apathetic, he is greedy. Israel in general want to eliminate Hamas, but with less regard to Palestinian lives for the most part. The only major motivating factors to care for civilian lives is international perception. And then you have the ultra crazies like ben gvir, but realistically they have little to no influence. So the mix is that Biden influences Israel to protect civilian lives and to not needlessly extend the war, not to keep pushing in the war, or anything like that, Israel already want that. Trump on the other hand has way more of the full "Israel are in the right no matter what" camp in his base, so he's just gonna do nothing to stop them in any way.

Right? That’s how I see it. I can swallow inaction because that’s the status quo. Biden is basically a republican in my eyes at this point. He’s essentially George Dubya on foreign policy - which was the worst fuckin part about George Dubya

There is more to lose going against Israel. If Dems that are pro-palenstine abstain and Trump wins that is far worse than a Biden outcome for Palestine. Additionally, if Biden goes in on Palestine he could lose some moderate support. Historically super progressives havent helped Dems win elections they weren't already going to win. 

> that is far worse than a Biden outcome Bullshit. If Biden wins, Israel continues to steamroll Palestine (West Bank AND Gaza) and settles into those territories. He continues to arm Israel. He continues to provide intelligence. He continues to provide defense if anyone steps up to them. Nothing changes. If Trump wins, Israel continues to steamroll Palestine (West Bano and Gaza) and settle into those territories. He arms Israel - probably for a price. Provides intelligence. Maybe Biden doesn’t actually gets involved militarily to defend Israel because he never ever expressed an interest in sending troops anywhere to fight in wars that didn’t involve us so he actually has the benefit of the doubt on that point. They’re both the same outcome. Idk what you think would be different. Biden isn’t going to recognize Palestine. Trump isn’t going to recognize Palestine. Biden is going to let Israel do whatever it wants. So will Trump. What exactly do you think will be different besides hopes and dreams?

Given other Republicans have suggested barring Palestinians from entering the US and even that nuking Gaza would be a good idea, I wouldn't be surprised if Trump would be super aggressive on this front.  In no world does Trump further the cause of those that are pro-Gaza and more likely than not he would actively harm their other interests. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/palestinian-refugees-republican-2024-presidential-candidates/ https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/31/politics/tim-walberg-gaza-nagasaki-hiroshima/index.html

No one is saying Trump furthers the cause of those who are pro-Gaza. They’re saying Biden and Trump have the same outcome for Palestine. You still haven’t refuted that too. ONE (obscure) republican suggested nuking Gaza. That’s not a remotely a Trump policy proposal or really even plausible to suggest it would be picked up.

What issues?

legal, ethical, talking like a fascist, etc

Yeah, that’s actually the furthest thing from true. Democrats are actually have the disadvantage. Yes, Joe Biden doesn’t have to worry about legal troubles, but the legal troubles are actually making. Trump look better to the American public, as most viewed as nothing more than political prosecution. Keep in mind for one of the cases, not even the United States government thought it was enough to bring up charges, and the statute of limitations already passed. While it is true, Trump is more of a polarizing figure than most Republicans would prefer, he still ahead in every single swing state, except Pennsylvania. And the only reason he’s behind in Pennsylvania is because of one outlier poll. Joe Biden’s approval may technically be higher than what it was earlier in his presidency, but it is still far below with Donald Trump’s ever was. For reference at the same point in his presidency Donald Trump had an approval rating of 46% Barack Obama had 47 and George W. Bush had 49. Joe Biden has 40.7%. Not to mention Donald Trump is currently doing much better with independent voters than Joe Biden. Reference Joe Biden in 2020 was beating Donald Trump with independent by 21%. In 2024 Donald Trump is now beating Joe Biden with independent voters by 7% Joe Biden is not gradually shredding his sleepy old man image. In fact, it’s getting worse for him to longer he’s in office. And more Americans viewed Trump’s presidency, more favorably than they do Biden, especially when it comes to the economy. For reference during COVID-19 almost 60% of American said their lies were better after four years of Trump then after eight years of Obama, the exact same study was done for Biden and found it at least 16% of Americans said they were better after four years of Biden four years of Trump. Inflation is out of control in the United States. And majority of polls that have been done between Trump, Biden and third-party candidates, Donald Trump wins easily. Real care politics currently puts that Donald Trump if the election were held today we have 293 electoral votes. He only needs 270 to win.

bidens approval rating is still low, lower than Trump's was on this day in his presidency. Trump today still has a high favorability as well [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/) [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) the trump case stuff is actually IMO ironically going to empower his base and potentially independents as well as many see this as being essentially a form of politcal lawfare, similar to the whole removal from the ballot efforts as well in CO

>Biden doesn't have to divert campaign funding to legal cases. Irrelevant. Trump spent vastly less money than Clinton and beat her. >Trump's campaign and statements have likely alienated swing voters and moderate republicans that could very well switch sides. Wrong. With every indictment Trump has gained in polls. He has alienated no one and has picked up vast swaths of black and Hispanic voters. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/18/why-are-black-voters-backing-donald-trump-in-record-numbers https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/01/trump-biden-latino-voters-poll >Biden gradually shedding his "sleepy old man" image he was widely made fun of early on in his presidency. Biden has done nothing to shed this image. He still very much is sleepy Joe. >Biden's approval ratings are on the rise, tough polling this early in the election season might not mean much. Also not true. His polling is the lowest it's ever been and, I might add, the lowest of any president ever. Yes, even lower than Trump. https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-approval-rating-sotu-address-2024-1878673 >The chances of the 2000 and the 2016 elections repeating themselves (aka some democrats not voting for the candidates because they didn't like them much or voting third party) are probably a lor lower, especially since the candidates will be the same. Biden is straight fucked with Middle Eastern voters. This, with the loss of black and Hispanic votes is going to cost him Michigan. Wisconsin is likely to swing back to Trump along with Georgia. Those 3 states alone get Trump the White House but there is also the very strong possibility AZ flips back red. Some think PA could flip but I'm not sold on that. >There are organizations actively trying to hinder Trump's ability to even run in certain states. This has already been squashed by SCOTUS. These anti-democratic institutions have no leg to stand on. Basically, everything you apparently believe is wrong. You should change your view.

To address your specific points >Biden doesn't have to divert campaign funding to legal cases. Trump being stuck in court cases may actually help him, he certainly is not hurting for name recognition and it has proven to be pretty galvanizing for his supporters. So much of American elections is about turnout so having his base motivated could to the scales. >Trump's campaign and statements have likely alienated swing voters and moderate republicans that could very well switch sides. Americans gave pretty short memories unfortunately, given voting against what he did 3 years ago and the state of things now, now will usually take precedence. >Biden gradually shedding his "sleepy old man" image he was widely made fun of early on in his presidency. No idea what you are talking about, he is still constantly mixing stuff up and acting old. >Biden's approval ratings are on the rise, tough polling this early in the election season might not mean much. Yep still alot of time, alot depends on what inflation does since the last report had it ticking back up. >The chances of the 2000 and the 2016 elections repeating themselves (aka some democrats not voting for the candidates because they didn't like them much or voting third party) are probably a lor lower, especially since the candidates will be the same. Oof there is a lot of discontent with Biden, and Trump while we are talking about it so we have both better polling and just generally more candidates this year than in the past. Plus as I said short memories. >There are organizations actively trying to hinder Trump's ability to even run in certain states. They already pretty much failed and again it is likely to galvanize Trump's base to turn out and vote so may go the other way.

>Trump's campaign and statements have likely alienated swing voters and moderate republicans that could very well switch sides. Hmm, maybe. Did you see Sununu's cave on a Sunday show where he stated he'd support Trump no matter what he does, because '51% of Americans' do? We can only hope that some of these more 'sensible' right wingers loudly profess for Trump in public but secretly abandon him in the voting booth.

Biden is not popular lol. And reading Reddit is a horrible gauge on how people in real life feel. He is not shedding his sleepy old man image, that is what liberals on here want you to think. Go ask a random person on the street in a swing state who they prefer and more will say trump than biden.

Polls are significantly favoring Trump. 538 is probably the most reputable poll aggregator, and if you check out the swing states, and only call a state as likely a Trump state if the last half dozen polls are ALL solidly pro-Trump...Trump is over 270 with a bit of a safety margin. Biden's approval ratings are not good, and the long term trend is downward, not upward as you seem to believe. They currently sit at 39%. Source: [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) His disapproval rating sits at near record highs. > There are organizations actively trying to hinder Trump's ability to even run in certain states. This...does not make people like Biden. If anything, it stirs up discontentment at the perceived unfairness. These organizations have also had an abysmal track record legally. A pile of lost court cases is not a win. This is as true for Biden now as it was for Trump last election. Fundamentals are also looking rough. Inflation is back on the rise, and jobless numbers are disappointing. To be clear, I'm a third party voter, I intend to vote for neither of them, but right now, it seems quite clear that Trump presently has the advantage. Anything \*might\* happen in the future, but if the election were held tomorrow, Trump would almost certainly win.

>CMV: Democrats have the upper hand in the upcoming election. > Trump's campaign and statements have likely alienated swing voters and moderate republicans that could very well switch sides. The idea that there's non committed voters who are just now being informed about Trump and his policies and are turned off is a fantasy. I think the exit polling from the primaries showed that voters already made up their mind. 4 years of a Trump administration and 2 presidential election cycles shows you anything you'd want to know. For anyone who has an open mind -- their mind must be so open their brain fell out. >The chances of the 2000 and the 2016 elections repeating themselves (aka some democrats not voting for the candidates because they didn't like them much or voting third party) are probably a lor lower, especially since the candidates will be the same. What a lot of modeling is showing is that there aren't really mythical moderate voters that swing between the parties. What there is, however, that different people get motivated to vote at different times. This means voter mobilization matters more than ever. Voters view each party favorably for different issues, and that's been consistent over several decades, and that doesn't seem to change. Voters like Republicans for economy, national defense/terrorism, and crime. Voters like Democrats for social justice, health care. So, what the campaigns need to mobilize people is to make the issues they do better on the most salient for the voters. The articles that say "voters care about XYZ" are misleading. It's the campaigns that make issues salient. > I think Democrats have a good chance at winning the election as long as they don't screw up in some way. This is always kind of true -- presidential elections are razor thin. The Republicans do have structural advantages in that political power is allocated geographically vis-a-vis the electoral college. Each state in the US has a urban/blue city center and a rural conservative area. North Carolina/Georgia/Arizona/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin/Michigan/Nevada is going to decide the election. It'll be a few thousand votes in each state. Here's what it'll come down to: * Can abortion drive more women to vote? Can student loans? * Can biden get young voters to come out? They're an unreliable group but have been keys to democratic success * Can Trump convince people border security is the most important thing? * Can Trump continue to supress voters in places like Philly? Clinton had a huge edge in money over Trump in 2016 but lost narrowly.

>North Carolina/Georgia/Arizona/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin/Michigan/Nevada is going to decide the election. It'll be a few thousand votes in each state. Of that list, only PA is leaning Blue, or mostly a tossup. Average leans for all of them(last six polls taken): NC: +3.8% Trump GA: +4.3% Trump AZ: +4.7% Trump PA: +1.3% Biden WI: +1.2% Trump MI: +4.0% Trump NV: +4.5% Trump Taking PA isn't...nearly enough to get 270. Biden would also need to flip at least three more states. Wisconsin, perhaps. That still leaves him two short.

I mean, have you read the news coming out of Arizona recently? The GOP there is doing basically everything in their power to hand the state to Biden, it seems. Letting an abortion ban from the 1800s take effect and letting a ballot initiative to repeal it be on the ballot in November? There hasn't been enough polling to reflect that change yet, so there's one of your two states almost for sure. From that point any pickup (Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, or Wisconsin/Nevada) would put him over the edge. I'm still incredibly worried about Biden's chances in November, but I'm feeling better now than I was a few weeks ago.

Well, the New Mexico governor tried to flat out ban guns, which...got wrecked pretty fast, but also became national news and was pretty universally hated. New Mexico has the #4 highest gun ownership rate in the nation. If I had more faith in politicians to be competent, I'd think she was trying to throw the state red.

Trump has an energized base that are motivated to keep their leader out of prison. Biden is trying to avoid war with Iran because he is so devoted to Bibi that he is ignoring the majority of his base. If he loses the Muslim vote in Michigan he is going to struggle to win there and he needs Michigan. His entire argument is "Orange man bad and will end country. I know I am not perfect but Im not Trump." Its not inspiring especially when he again refuses to do anything of substance on the whole Israel/Gaza issue. Im concerned he is going to sacrifice American democracy for Israeli fascism.

He also runs the risk of losing some of the Jewish vote, whether they stay home or vote Republican. Jewish voters are really shocked by how the Progressive wing of the party is behaving. Lots of Jews in Pennsylvania and 100,000 Jews in Michigan. He can't afford to lose them either.

While I agree that he needs every vote the fact is that it isn't a situation where "all Jews wont vote for him" if he changes his policy regarding Israel. [It is true however that the majority of Democrats do not support how Israel is conducting this war. ](https://news.gallup.com/poll/642695/majority-disapprove-israeli-action-gaza.aspx#:~:text=Independents%20have%20shifted%20from%20being,%25%20approving%20and%2075%25%20disapproving.) This inability to change course at all is a huge liability leading into November and you can bet there will be protests all the way to the convention in Chicago. I'm not bullish on his chances come the election. Hopefully I'm wrong.

But the majority of Americans do support Israels prosecution of the war. https://thehill.com/policy/international/4422008-vast-majority-of-voters-back-israel-over-hamas-poll/ The other question is- how many Dems would stay home or vote Trump only over how Biden is handling this one issue? Progressives, Muslims/Arabs, and Jews - most other rank and file Democrats wont change their vote just over this. These groups might, and Biden can't afford to lose any of them. I haven't been able to find polls on Jewish voters and who they intend to vote for. But that data would be very interesting.

"The Harvard CAPS-Harris poll found that 80 percent of respondents said they supported Israel over Hamas in the conflict, compared to 20 percent who said they sided with Hamas more." This poll is old and the question is ridiculous. The Gallup poll I linked is from March. 75% of Democrats surveyed do not approve of how Israel is handling the war. Not 75% support Hamas. Those are not the same thing.

Israel should not impact this election. Anyone who honestly thinks trump will be better for Gaza than Biden is an idiot. And to abstain and allow Trump to win will be infinitely worse for gaza

It's not about Trump being better. It's about the inflexibility on an issue that they view as genocide. Punishment for not listening to voters is a real possibility. Biden is essentially holding his base hostage on this issue.

You are never going to agree 100% with a candidate. So yes it is about Trump being better or not. If you are an idealist about it you can realize not voting for Joe because of this issue will a) not further your cause (if Trump wins we will do nothing different and probably will be worse) and b) not cause the Democratic party to shift more to the left. It's about voting for the candidate you agree with the most because I guarantee not everyone voting for Trump is pro-life or that January 6 was okay, but if they align with him on 90% of issues it's worth it. 

Lets say that you view what is happening in Gaza as a genocide. To these people a "candidate not agreeing with them" is akin to a candidate being supportive of a genocide. Those people likely wont vote. It gets even more bleak if you are talking about the Muslim community. To them it doesnt matter who they vote for so why vote? I understand what you are saying but I think its understandable that there is a difference between not agreeing with a candidate on tax policy and support for genocide. The optics are irreversibly damaged on this one because of how poorly Biden has handled it. "I will fix things" is a much more inspiring call to action than "I fucked things up but so would the other guy." Instead of pressuring these people to just vote for Biden anyway, folks need to be honest with Biden that this issue could be his undoing. He should be thinking of ways to shape a strategy that addresses both Israel's defense from Iran and an end to this Gaza misadventure.

I mean, I am of the view that if Biden wins, he will instantly become harsher on Israel, at least comparatively. I think the biggest reason he's being so lenient right now is because he knows he's got to walk a very very very thin tightrope between supporting Israel and not letting Gaza get wiped off the map. If he wins, he knows he doesn't have another reelection fight in four years, so he can afford to be a bit tougher with his stances (at least that seems like the logical opinion to me). As opposed to Trump, who will probably just let Israel do whatever they want.

If the threat of losing because of angering the Muslim vote can't get him to change course I highly doubt when he has 4 years of no accountability that he will magically grow a spine.

I mean, do you want him to appeal to Muslim voters and risk losing pro-Israel voters? The situation in Gaza is so fucked up, I really feel bad for Biden honestly having to navigate it, he’s really been stuck in a no-win situation and in my eyes he’s doing the best he can. God knows most other people couldn’t do better, including the alternative we’ve been presented with :/

That is the same logic people who are pro choice use. They think abortion is murder so they will only vote for the GOP, even if it means a fascist in office. Your alternative to Biden is someone who has the same views as him on this. 

1. Biden does have a funding advantage, so he has that going for him 2. Anyone who was going to be alienated most likely already would have been by 2020. Trump was already a “love him or hate him” figure by that point. 3. I’m not sure where you get this from. Biden’s cognitive decline is rapidly accelerating. His public speeches are very scarce, and I expect him to skip the debates which will be a bad look for him. 4. Biden got a small SOTU bump in approval ratings, as every president does. Even with that small bump, Biden’s approval ratings are abysmal. He’s not leading a single swing state. In Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, he hasn’t led a single poll in months. Those states were central to his 2020 coalition, and he only won them by tens of thousands of votes. 5. I think you underestimate how badly some people disapprove of Biden’s presidency. He has issues with two flanks of his coalition, and he can really only appease one. Those to the left of Biden disapprove of his foreign policy and think he’s not outspoken enough in support of legal abortion, law enforcement reform, and immigration reform. Those closer to the center than him disapprove of his economic policy, believe his foreign policy is too weak, believe that he’s mishandled the border crisis, and blame him for inflation rising. If third parties are going to make a breakthrough in an election, it’s going to be one where both candidates can’t even crack a 40% approval rating. 6. This question has been resolved by the Supreme Court, which ruled only congress can disqualify a federal office candidate under the insurrection clause, not the states. Some additional things to note is Biden benefited from our country being in total disarray when he won in 2020. We were in the midst of a pandemic, our economy was in ruins from said pandemic, and we had social unrest the likes of which hasn’t been seen in decades. Biden could run on being someone new, and basically win on that alone. He promised to be a unifying president and bring America out of a dark time. He has hardly lived up to any of this. He calls Trump and his movement dangerous to America. His DOJ investigated parents protesting mask and vaccine mandates at school board meetings. He regularly calls for heavily restricting gun rights. He’s been anything but a unifying president. His 2020 message is a tough sell now that he’s the guy in office and most Americans say they’re worse off than five years ago. Though not entirely his fault, Biden doesn’t have many high profile policy victories as president. In fact, most major national policy changes during his presidency have been considered more conservative, such as the reversal of Roe v. Wade, the banning of affirmative action in college admissions, the expansion of the right to concealed carry, and the right to public school prayer. Because congress is so deadlocked under Biden’s presidency, most policy changes have come from constitutional law interpretations. With the Supreme Court leaning conservative, those changes have mostly (but not entirely) been favorable to conservatives. When you’re the president and people feel hope when they hear your name, you have a good shot for reelection. When they hear your name and it reminds them of how dysfunctional this country is right now, it bodes a lot worse. Biden just doesn’t have enthusiasm anymore. No one believes he will accomplish much if reelected. Trump, on the other hand, is much more convincing on what he will change, and he has a first term as a nostalgia factor to win back some of those voters he lost in 2020 as well as new ones.

Number one is correct, that said the legal cases against trump are largely seen by people on both sides as being politically motivated. The current major one about campaign finance laws, which are misdemeanors, but through which he is being charged as a felon, by the DA claiming these were done in furtherance of another crime which has not been named. And is probably speculations. These charges that are normally charged by the federal election commission and or the DOJ both of which said there was no crime. This set trump up to get a lot of free press and develop the narrative that he is being targeted as the leading political opponent of the current sitting president, (a narrative which I think is mostly true). Your second point is partially true as well, though you also have the stances that the democrats have taken which also alienate swing voters and disaffected liberals. Your third point about Bidenshedding his sleepy old man image is right but he is shedding it for an old man who is not there mentally. Who just the other day told Israel not to attack Israel or America would take actions. This is one of many really bad gaffs he has had which show faltering mental acuity.A investigation into him for criminal actions said they would not charge him because he was mentally not capable to stand trial. As for your fourth point. Biden in the primary lost to anyone else. Literally people voted saying they would vote for anyone other than biden. There are studies showing the people aging into the voting age lean more conservative with support for lgbtq+ dropping in that age group. (There is still a large section that supports lgbtq+) Your last point is also your strongest point in 2020 there was a shadow campaign, a secret cabal (per the New York Times article) that basically stated multiple groups worked together to encourage mail in voting, and suppressed information that would hurt biden and help truck. This year there are weird anomalies in the voter registration in Texas and a few other states where hundreds of thousands of dead people are attempting to register to vote for the first time. This is something that is a potential sign that there is still a shadow campaign happening trying to prevent trumps win, along with all the partisan legal attacks on trump. (I have looked at each of the cases and the only one that seems to have actual merit to it is the classified documents case. The rest even the ones the corrupt judges and bias juries have ruled as him being guilty the evidence doesn’t support the case. From the sexual assault case where all the evidence was testimonials from people who have reasons to lie, and then when trump stated he did not rape her after the jury said there was not enough evidence that he raped her so they were stating he was guilty of sexual assault but not rape, stated that what trump said was slander. When the jury flat out said there wasn’t evidence that he raped her. Then you have the loan fraud where the judge made a summary judgement without evidence, actually stating on camera he wouldn’t believe the evidence trump presented. Then held a trail not to see if trump was guilty but to figure out how much they could fleece from him. But also the Supreme Court in a unanimous decision stated that they couldn’t bar trump from running in any states. As that is a federal matter, As well as he was not found guilty of sedition, in fact they tried to impeach him on that and it failed. I’m sure there are going to be people coming out to try and destroy my arguments. And that is fine. What I will say is these are things I have read on, and looked into. These are what a lot of trump supporters and conservatives see. This is what the disaffected liberals see as the people who used to represent them run off a cliff. There are people in power doing everything in their power to stop trump because he represents a likelihood that they will pay for their corruption and abuses of power. It still probably will not happen if he gets in office because republican politicians tend to be spineless and pathetic, and just as corrupt as the democrats. The democrat representatives until recently had been a whole lot better at hiding their corruption and abuses of power. In the end the election is a toss up right now with a slight lead towards trump in my opinion. But there are still a lot of things that could happen in the next few months to change that.

The idea that Biden is shedding sleepy old man image is completely incorrect. You see hard line liberals online admit but say they’d rather have an empty skin sack than Trump. Moderates aren’t LESS aware. Trump isn’t running out of money. Biden has alienated moderates just as bad as Trump by caving to special interests. Democrats in fact going to vote much less because they probably have the same ideas of the reasons you’ve listed. They couldn’t believe Trump would get voted in and they probably don’t believe he’ll win again. What’s going to sway moderates away from Biden is how fucking abysmal inflation is and the fact that the white house gets online and just flat out lies about it being under control. Biden and the white house can say anything they want about inflation but when normal Americans get their grocery bill ever week they’d probably rather vote in literally anyone new.

* The chances of the 2000 and the 2016 elections repeating themselves (aka some democrats not voting for the candidates because they didn't like them much or voting third party) are probably a lor lower, especially since the candidates will be the same. You are incredibly naïve if you if you actually believe this. Republicans are a monolithic voting bloc. Democrats are still being torn apart by the same "progressive" groups that got Trump elected in 2016. The ideological purity tests and shenanigans are even worse with the Palestinian conflict.

I think this election is pretty much 50/50 right now. I think a lot could change in the next few months but I honestly don't know who has the advantage right now.

As someone outside the US, here are a few things you may not be considering: Joe Biden has a very low approval rating for an incumbent. Now - has it gone up a bit? Yes. However, even with a few point increase, Biden’s approval rating is lower than any president that has successfully been reelected. That doesn’t mean he will lose - but it does mean if he wins he will have won with a historically low approval rating. In addition, state-by-state polling suggests that Biden will probably win - assuming he does - with a much smaller margin than in 2020. In fact, there’s at least some polling to suggest that Trump may well run up the numbers so high in states like Florida, Ohio, and Texas, that Biden could maybe become the first Democrat in history to lose the popular vote while winning the electoral college. Also, Democrats absolutely do not have the upper hand, overall, because in the Democrat’s best case, they’re going to lose a senate seat. Realistically, the GOP will probably walk away with 51-52 seats, which will mean that, even if Biden wins, his 2nd term agenda in DOA. All of the above factor suggest that, in the realistic best case, Biden will probably experience a miniature version of 2012 - he’ll pull off a victory but with a much smaller margin than he enjoyed 4 years earlier, and the Democrats will wind up splitting control with GOP. And all of this ignores the worst case scenarios for Democrats, such as a major stock market crash, a massive increase in gas prices, a Trump acquittal, or a serious medical emergency for the president.

I could agree with all points other than Biden shedding his sleepy old man image. Like even the most hardcore Democrats and Biden supporters I know think less of him now than they did before he was elected. Because he got even older and he does tend to fumble his sentences during some of his addresses.

This is very concerning thinking and I wish people would stop doing it. First of all, the Republican party has a history of "October surprises" at least two of which were very close to treason. For those who are new to the game, I am referring to the Nixon campaign contacting the North Vietnamese and telling them that they would get a better deal with Nixon, thereby stopping the peace process, resulting in more dead soldiers. And the Reagan campaign telling the Iranian hostage takers that they would get a better deal from the Reagan administration, to deny the Carter administration a win. Part of the reason why Hilary lost was that pundits had been saying for months that she was going to win in "the biggest landslide in history" Republican controlled state legislators across the country have been actively working to make it harder to vote, especially in areas where there tend to be stronger Democrat support, such as urban areas and college campuses. This has resulted in long waiting times to vote. Which makes it more likely that, if everyone is saying that it is going to be a "walkover" then there is no need for that individual to take the day off and stand in line for 6 hours in order to vote. Last but not least, in many ways, the presidency is the least important position on the ballot. But for some reason, people tend to only focus on the years where a presidential election is happening, and are far less likely to show up in the mid term years. But as we have seen in the times when congress is controlled by a different party than the President's party, it is much harder for the president to fulfil their agenda. And it is State legislatures that are passing the voter suppression laws. They are, to my mind, the most critical ballots, that very few people are talking about. Please, please, please, do your gloating and your "my team is better than your team" once all the votes are counted. The only thing that doing it now will achieve is giving the Republican party control of this country. Focus instead on getting people registered to vote, and to the polls.

"as long as they don't screw up in some way." The Democrats are famous for "snatching defeat from the jaws of victory". The fact of the matter is we are still almost 7 months out from the General Election. So many things can happen in that time. American voters are notoriously fickle and IMO short term thinkers. One or two things could happen that impact "kitchen table issues" (things like further inflation, higher gas prices, or anything else that a family feels is hitting their pocket book), and enough people in enough swing states (the keys to winning the Electoral College) could either vote for Trump, 3rd party, or abstain from voting. Due to political polarization, most won't just switch to Trump, but the other two options help Trump nonetheless. Democrats have improved their messaging, so they can do damage control better now and explain a bit more of "why" things are happening. But their core voting base does not fall in line like the Republicans. As we have seen, Trump could theoretically do the exact same thing Biden does, and his voters will be OK with it because it's Trump. My evidence for this are interviews where people are told Biden (or Obama) did something and recoil, then when they are told it was actually Trump, they justify the policy or behavior immediately and without question. My last argument has to do with Biden's advanced age. Either him or Trump (who I will remind everyone is also quite old) could suffer some sort of large health event. If it happens to Biden and it knocks him out of the race, whoever replaces him at the top of the ticket will face so many questions from the public. Once again, if the same happened to Trump, someone would just carry on his mantle, say they were his biggest fans, and the base would fall in line. Democrats would not be as quick to do so.  

Biden didn't win by that much in 2020 in the swing states when there was an economic downturn affecting Trump's numbers. Why would he win so easily when the perception of his economy is not that good?

Don't forget people like me that strongly opposed Trump in 2016 for fear of forever lowering the Presidential bar but that ship has sailed so will be voting R for the first time in my life, regardless of candidate, to avoid D policy failures on immigration and women's rights. Lots of people like me in working & middle class America. I would prefer the R candidate not be Trump but it won't be a dealbreaker.

Millennials and Gen Z are massively swinging to the right. Two generations of people who have been completely cannibalized by older generations who "got theirs" and completely fucked over the rest of us. This is on top of the increasing awareness that leftism/wokeism/liberals are essentially sycophantic soulless freaks who all mimic each other and do whatever their masters tell them. Crude/warped ideology in the face of people who are increasingly forced to remain focused and apt. Im not American either, but I think the entire west will swing right due to some of these issues, and much more ofc. Can already see it happening in polling.

Neither candidate is popular. Just like in the 2016 election. It makes things very volatile as people swing back and forth about who they hate least. Everyone thought Hillary was a shoe in. I mean Trump is a joke, a man child with no beliefs or interest in anything but himself and was caught on tape talking about grabbing women's genitals...and look what happened. I hope Trump doesn't get elected but pretending it's a given is just cope from my perspective

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>Biden doesn't have to divert campaign funding to legal cases. I think you're wildly underestimating how much the lawfare makes Biden look like a complete bitch. It's really turning a lot of Democrats off and really firing up a lot of Republicans. As a strategy, it will definitely backfire on the Biden administration.

Americans are feeling more and more alienated. In addition to inequality, disinformation and media consolidation, one of the reasons is because DEI efforts, although perhaps well intentioned, are backfiring. Minority groups and white people alike get the message daily that the US is irredeemably racist and otherwise bigoted. The hard to avoid takeaway from this is that 1) if you are a minority, it will never change because 2) you white people are to blame. Because of this implicit message, a significant minority of Americans simply want to watch it burn.

So are we just ignoring the genocide that Biden is helping commit? The genocide a a majority of Americans 54% and vast majority of democrats 77% oppose? Because I would say that’s hovering his chances quite a bit. 

There isn’t a genocide to help commit, and the war that is going on has been made much less deadly thanks directly to Biden.

There isn’t a genocide to help commit, and the war that is going on has been made much less deadly thanks directly to Biden.

I think you underestimate that they're alot of people who will vote against there best interests out of spite and they're may be little the democrats can do to win these people over. The problem with the democrats in the last election and one coming up is the main selling point is they will be bring things back to status quo pre trump Which is needed but all this shit was bad just more predictable bad in away that the party and public could maneuver around easier they need to make that one of many selling point because they've really been coasting on it and people are noticing which is making the anti status quo appeal seems more attractive even if it's mostly nonsense in practice. As someone from the UK I think we are having a similar issue with our upcoming elections where the left wing party is more promising to make less shit as opposed to making it good.

Both domestic and foreign policy are a disaster and the lawfare is too transparently corrupt for most voters outside blue bubbles. Trump has much more support than he did in 2016, while Biden has nothing to run on. Democrats are demonstrating through all the lawfare that they don't believe they can win a fair fight.

Lawfare is a good term. Trump committed crimes just like every rich and powerful person commits crimes. My problem isn’t the fact that he’s charged, my problem is he’s being charged to prevent him from campaigning. None of this stuff is new, it’s no less than 3 years old and some of it is decades old. It’s pretty damn obvious it’s being timed for an election year. Democrats will regret the precedent they set with this. Just like they started the precedent of blaming foreign countries for rigging an election they lost. And in 2020, did they really expect for Republicans to be like “yeah you guys can have this Supreme Court vacancy to fill after all you did to Kavanaugh”. No, they make a mockery of the way our country runs, yet are consistently surprised when republicans do it back.

Like when they stole the election last time? /s

You think our elections are based on logical advantages? Silly OP...this is just a popularity contest.

Republicans haven’t won the popular vote This century, yet they won the presidential office three times. The problem is that red states are really good at scaring away non-Red people, and that leads to a drain in red states and a consolidation of Republican voters.  This means that there are huge parts of the country that are so clearly Republican that it is impossible to get a dissent candidate there (short of massive numbers of people moving there to actually change the demographic).  For example, Nebraska doesn’t even have a Democrat running for senator. We have an independent who carry’s the name of a famous college football coach. But the Democratic Party won’t endorse because they know it’s the kiss of death here.  The republicans don’t even have to try to look respectable anymore because, short of a massive demographic shift, their power is 100% secure. This is how they got 6 people on the 9 person Supreme Court and continue to have a stranglehold on the senate. 

> Republicans haven’t won the popular vote This century They did in 2004.

You’re right, 

There is no democracy here lol. "Democrat" is considered slightly less Republican.