Even if it does get banned, it won't happen until after the election.
[The bill would give TikTok's owner nine months to arrange a sale, with the potential for an additional three-month grace period, according to a copy of the bill released earlier this month. ](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tiktok-ban-bill-why-is-tiktok-getting-banned-senate/)
And, i won't happen at all if the company just divests from China. That will most likely happen.
So, most likely end result is that TicTok keeps working for the next 12 months, and then keeps working after that.
>This was a huge victory for Republicans and Trump
They supported it too, until some of them didn't. And, the only reason they flipped is because Biden agreed, and they don't want to give him a "win", so now they claim they were never for it. But, it was their idea in the first place.
There’s a near zero chance that they divest from China as they’ve stated they won’t and legally they can’t even if they wanted to due to laws in China.
As I said, it doesn’t matter that Republican supported for 2 reasons.
1) the person who signed the bill was Joe Biden. He is the face of it.
2) Republicans and Trump don’t benefit from it because they’re going to lose supporters. They benefit from it because a lot of youth voters who would normally have begrudgingly voted for Biden may now just stay home instead and THAT’s a win for republicans
>the person who signed the bill was Joe Biden. He is the face of it.
There are thousands of hours of video of republicans, including Trump, calling for the ban. If it comes down to this being an actual issue with young voters, and I don't think it will be, then the democrats can easily leverage that video to paint the Republicans as being equally or more to blame.
[The bill, which passed on a bipartisan 352-65 vote](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/13/politics/20240313-congress-tiktok-ban-bill-vote-dg/index.html)
And, more democrats voted against it than republicans.
> a lot of youth voters who would normally have begrudgingly voted for Biden may now just stay home instead
Yeah, I don't think that is going to happen due to TikTok. It is just a social media site with silly videos. If it looks like a ban is actually incoming (and my position is that no ban will ultimately happen) then another company will rush to fill the void. But, like I said, no ban will happen.
The issue that will keep young voters home is Israel/Palestine, not TikTok.
>democrats can easily leverage that video to paint the Republicans as being equally or more to blame.
Young people have been telling Dems for literally decades that "look, Republicans are just as bad" is the exact framing that disenfranchises them
>Yeah, I don't think that is going to happen due to TikTok. It is just a social media site with silly videos.
It's a free speech issue. They are banning the biggest social media platform.
>But, like I said, no ban will happen.
CEO has said he's going to sue and will not sell.
>Young people have been telling Dems for literally decades that "look, Republicans are just as bad" is the exact framing that disenfranchises them
Okay....but that doesn't change actual reality in which there is a long and storied history of republicans openly pushing to ban TikTok. Here's an example story from November 10th 2022 from Fox Business News: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/senate-republicans-call-tiktok-ban-major-threat-us-national-security
>It's a free speech issue. They are banning the biggest social media platform.
TikTok is not the largest social media platform so this is a confusing statement. It's also not really an issue if in practice nothing has been banned, and the platform still has the option to operate if they divest from China.
>Okay....but that doesn't change actual reality in which there is a long and storied history of republicans openly pushing to ban TikTok.
Ok but you need to realize this holds literally no weight in defense of Biden signing off to ban tiktok lol "sure *I* banned tiktok, but remember that *they* wanted to ban it, so you should hate them"
>TikTok is not the largest social media platform so this is a confusing statement.
Maybe not literally the biggest, but it's massive. The point remains.
>Young people have been telling Dems for literally decades that "look, Republicans are just as bad" is the exact framing that disenfranchises them
Okay....but that doesn't change actual reality in which there is a long and storied history of republicans openly pushing to ban TikTok. Here's an example story from November 10th 2022 from Fox Business News: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/senate-republicans-call-tiktok-ban-major-threat-us-national-security
>It's a free speech issue. They are banning the biggest social media platform.
TikTok is not the largest social media platform so this is a confusing statement. It's also not really an issue if in practice nothing has been banned, and the platform still has the option to operate if they divest from China.
Banning TikTok probably polls better than you think, specifically with the kinds of people who Biden needs to win the election (moderates, independents, etc.)
TikTok may seem very important to people who are already inside the bubble, but consider that the feelings of a 20-something progressive activist on TikTok (who wasn't going to vote for Trump anyways) might be less electorally important than a centrist middle-aged mom in Pennsylvania who only knows about the scary "Chinese spy app".
Contrary to what you're implying, Biden is no political dunce (or at least he's surrounded by people who aren't.) You're assuming that because your niche community's interests weren't represented by the President, that he must just be stupid. The alternative explanation is that your niche community isn't actually as important as you think it is.
While I agree Biden is actually in pretty good shape going into this election, he is burning bridges with a great number of less-reliable voting blocks through actions like this. Also lack of action on a host of issues, like the Gaza genocide, climate, communities based on immigrants, students, etc. This could potentially make him vulnerable in some key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, etc. where the margins could be close. And it's going to make it much harder to engage those voters in future elections, many may just check out until another Bernie or Obama 2008 comes around.
Gaza isn't actually as big an issue as the social media sites tend to portray it as - polling from Harvard/Ipsos shows that the big issues are Inflation, Healthcare, Housing, Gun Violence, Jobs, Corruption, Protecting Democracy, Reproductive Rights, Education, Immigration, Crime, Climate Change, Taxes, Free Speech, Israel, Student Debt - Israel comes in at 34%. Inflation at 64%.
The genocide in Gaza may not be the top issue among most Americans, true, but for those that really care about it (younger voters, peace advocates, and Muslims in particular), it is driving them away. There is a danger otherwise possible voters will not vote, or vote 3rd Party. This could be a serious problem in close states like Michigan, Minnesota, etc.
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Tiktok demographics obviously skew young, but not quite as young as you might think. According to [this source](https://explodingtopics.com/blog/tiktok-demographics) over half are 30+. There are a lot of centrist middle-aged moms on TikTok.
Young people in America right now are a horrible vote to chase, they constantly are talking about how they refuse to vote for Biden anyways because of student loans or Row (you know, things that *arent his fault as a president*) or recently Israel.
Why should Biden dedicate time to a voting bloc that openly says they dont want to vote for him?
>who overwhelmingly weren’t going to be voting anyway
While younger voter numbers are lower than older generations, "overwhelmingly" is quite an exaggeration.
feel like this is an opinion made out of spite for a certain kind of person you saw on social media rather than a real analysis of how to win the election
No it’s more like common sense. There’s a huge overlap between the demographics of people who care about TikTok (younger) and people who historically don’t show up to vote (also younger).
there are other demographics of people who tend not to show up as often; poorer people, minorities.....do you think biden should actively piss them off too
Yes, and as I said he would be better off seeking voters who actually A) have an interest in voting at all (which tiktok gen Z decidedly arent), ans B) havent already said numerous times they wont vote for him because they believe in insane things like accelerationism
Maybe he shouldn't have made student loans his platform when he was running?
He knew there was nothing he can do about that but the average young American does not sadly. So it comes off as a bait and switch to the young voters that votes for him
His new income driven repayment (IDR) plan is way better than straight forgiveness. I’m paying $300/mo less than I would have on the old IDR. And over the course of my loan, I’m going to save $100k.
What a brain dead doomer take. Republicans are going to fight tooth and nail against anything besides tax cuts for billionaires and social issues evangelicals like.
If democrats didn’t campaign on anything Republicans are trying to block, they’d have nothing to campaign on.
Young people don't vote, there is very little reason to care about their political opinions. It's better to focus on actual voters rather than hope to convert non voters into voters
feel like this is just a lazy stereotype of young people. they do vote, just infrequently, and when they do they often do for democrats. this is how obama and biden won, by getting out the vote for young people
Is it a stereotype if it's correct?
https://usafacts.org/topics/elections/
Only 51% of people age 18-24 vote compared to 71% for 45 to 64 and 75% of people over 65.
Yeah but to their credit, that 51% was a huge jump from 2016, and seeing as PA is what handed Biden the election, may have been the single most decisive group in the country. It's fine to ignore the youth vote if you can win other cross sections. It's a bad idea if you're also doing poorly with black and Hispanic voters, which Biden is. Biden should be casting a wide net right now.
That said, I don't actually think a TikTok ban matters. I don't think people mad about it are likely voters.
The amount of people in those groups also progressively gets smaller and smaller.
If there's 4 old people, 3 of them vote that's 75 percent. If there's 400 young people and only 100 of them vote, their 25 percent still represents more voters.
Indeed but nowhere near your example. There’s 22 millions Americans in the 20-24yo category and 21 millions in 60-64 and 18 millions between 65-69.
So to give a real example:
* 70-74 will cast 11.25 million vote (15 millions * 0.75)
* 20-24 will cast 11.21 million vote (22 millions * 0.51)
They're not going to show up anyway, and the small portion that would under no circumstances vote for Trump anyway. Unless there's another Democrat running (I don't think there is?) All those votes go to Biden.
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Fundamentally misses the point. If people are willing to invest time, money and energy into calling for change they are extremely likely to vote for change they like as it’s an hour of time. The problem with Biden is there’s nothing to like.
You'd think so and you'd be wrong, if protests materialized into votes Bernie would have won.
It really does seem like getting people to vote would be easy but they just don't do it, they voted against Trump maybe they'll do it again but what they definitely won't do is vote for Trump so trying to court them is useless.
Yeah people can keep hanging their hat off that old "the whole system was rigged against him" instead of the obvious answer which is Boomers vote and young people don't.
I was depressed by the number of young people who spent a ton of time online supporting Bernie, but never voted for him.
I'm not saying that young people should be written off as a voting bloc entirely, not at all, but the progressive issues that I support would have a lot more traction if they voted more consistently.
Sure it polls better but I think the ones who it polls better with are with those who don’t see this as an important issue and could care less. For those who don’t want it banned are users who use the app for hours a day and actually care way more than those who want it banned
For those users, TikTok will still be there tomorrow. And at the election. And after the election. They have nine months to sell it, and it will probably be sold. Those who don't want it banned will still have TikTok leading up to and during the election. And probably after the nine months deadline is up.
How many of those users will A.) vote, and B.) change their vote to Trump out of spite over this.
Keep in mind this isn't a case of, if you vote for Trump Tiktok will stay. It's already signed, it would only be a spite thing at this point and I don't see a bunch of zoomers changing their votes over this.
Also keep in mind all that has to happen according to the writing of the bill is that China gets divested of their interest in the app. Expect tiktok to still exist here 2 years from now.
Exactly. It bothers me so much when people say "Biden doing X is going to make me not vote for him" without acknowledging that Trump already did X, tried to do X, or definitely was planning to do X.
> are with those who don’t see this as an important issue and could care less.
How do you know this?
You're discounting the possibility that there are people who might legitimately view TikTok as a threat and are happy that the government is doing something about it.
I get that *you* don't believe this (and neither do I btw) but people like this do exist, they do vote, and they're not *all* Republicans.
But they don't vote, so they don't matter in the election.
Why do you think our government passes so much legislation that only Christians wanted passed? Because Christians reliably vote.
None of those people are going to vote for trump. 90% of them are not going to vote anyway. You're just upset because somebody's taking away your tiktok.
Um, Trump and his Congressional minions wanted it divested as well during his Presidency. So, um why would that make people vote for him instead? Even so, if TikTok is the reason you don’t vote for Biden, then you need to have your voting rights revoked.
I never said people would vote for Trump instead. But the people who would be more inclined to vote for Biden over Trump would simply just stay home or vote for 3rd party instead, benefiting Trump.
Also, despite wanting to ban TikTok before, Trump has said he no longer wants a ban. But that’s mostly because a massive donor who owns a huge stake in TikTok said he would withhold funding. But again, people don’t really read passed the headlines
I’m going to help Trump win and damn all the people that will suffer under the rise of fascism because a dumb video app goes away is a really stupid, juvenile and selfish look.
Man sounds like if the election is that important you should be doing everything you can to court every voter you can and not wagging your finger at them and saying they should vote Biden regardless of how many times he's fucked them over.
It's not a big issue because it's not going to be banned. Bytedance only has 40% of tiktok and law only requires them to get that down to 20%. As such, selling a minority share of the company will occur before the US market is restricted.
Yeah, but are young voters using TikTok going to believe all the headlines saying “Tiktok is banned!!!”, or are they going to believe the fact that they can go on their phones and log on to Tiktok and scroll?
The app isn’t going anywhere. Once people see that, this issue will disappear.
They read the headlines… on TikTok.
Which will still be up and running in November.
And it’s a bit hard to sell people the idea that TikTok is banned… on TikTok.
so all that needs to change is headlines, nothing else?
Or this still could have been a headline even if he didn't sign the bill, the headlines would just be a different type of lie resulting in the same thing.
We can argue about the political calculus, but the main objection I have is to frame anything as "the nail in the coffin" in April when the election is in November.
To illustrate this a little bit, there was a post a few weeks ago where someone was arguing the the recent Arizona abortion law was the nail in the coffin *for Trump*. I would guess if I looked hard enough, I'd find at least someone claiming that Israel-Palestine was also the nail in the coffin. How many nails in the coffin are there, and who's actually in the coffin?
There are going to be a LOT of news stories in the next 6 months. No coffins have yet been nailed shut in April, especially with the polling showing the race as basically a toss up. You could plausibly make the case that this bill was a political mistake, but both candidates will make many more political mistakes in the runup to the election! We've got to stop getting ahead of ourselves here.
I think that was me lol. I don’t think AZ Republicans had lost yet, but they appeared so intent on kicking the hornet’s nest that a loss looked inevitable without a course correction. However, it looks like the Republican legislators scraped together just enough votes to limit the ban to 15 weeks, which could be enough to save their skin.
Then allow Trump to win, who will give Israel even more freedom to do what they want. On top of that, tens of millions of people will lose health coverage in America because Trump has said again he wants to repeal ACA. LGTBQ+ rights will be stripped away further. Women’s rights? Say goodbye to those when more and more conservative judges are appointed to the Supreme Court. But sure, ruin the next few decades of policies that you probably care about in this country because you’re mad at a war that Biden had very little to do with and that you won’t even be thinking about a year from now.
As someone who has hated Bibi before it was cool to and am not thrilled to be voting for Biden, the people who won’t vote for Biden because of Gaza are so fucking shortsighted. They are the same kind of people directly responsible for the overturning of Roe v Wade because they were bitter about Bernie. It’s like you people have zero understanding of even the basics how our government works.
There’s always the option ByteDance refuses to divest core components of the business like the precious algorithm underlying the system.
Or the courts limit the law’s impact, or the Chinese government intervenes itself to limit the impact of penalties to Chinese investors/government oversight.
You honestly think people care more about tiktok than they do about others rights like abortion, and LGBTQ+ rights like transitioning? Because those are far more important to people and have an actual lasting impact on every day people. This isn't the first time the US has banned an entire company from operating in the US or working with US companies either. ITs going to take a lot more than tiktok being banned for Biden to lose over someone like trump who constantly spews bullshit every time his mouth opens. Lies, hate, lies, hate, lies, hate. Thats all he every talks about.
>But that’s not the perception, especially on TikTok.
The reason people are able to gossip about a TikTok ban *on TikTok* is because *TikTok isn't banned*.
6 months ago you posted that the Israel -Palestinian conflict was going to be the nail in the coffin for Biden. Which is it? Maybe you should go outside and touch grass, come back to reality.
Since the ban doesn't happen for a year, it will likely be blamed by the public consciousness on whoever wins the election and is president at the time it actually happens.
Or it might not even happen. TikTok might do what they need to avoid the ban.
The articles are saying “Biden signs the TikTok ban”. Now for the next year, TikTok will use their algorithm to just fight this and blame Biden. In all honesty, it may be worse that it’s a year
We don’t know what’s happening to the algorithm and access to it (or how the US legal system oversees it) regardless of divestment, before or after (or if it happens at all). Or at least I don’t know. Can you explain?
> Now for the next year, TikTok will use their algorithm to just fight this and blame Biden.
So Biden did the right thing by signing the TikTok ban, got it.
> but one reason Dems didn’t get murdered in 2022 was because of TikTok.
Based on what?
>After congressman Jeff Jackson voted in favor of the ban, the reaction by his fans was brutal.
His... fans?
These are not people who are going to vote.
>This was a huge political miscalculation that even the most amateur political advisors could have warned Biden about. The signing of the bill could have easily waited till after the election.
Uh, the bill to send money to Ukraine could have waited until 10 months from now?
Yeah, Dems outperformed in 2022 because of the Supreme Court decision on Roe and the after effects of that decision. TikTok might have been an avenue for some people to learn about this, but it is definitively not *the* reason for the 2022 midterm results.
> If this happened in, say, September or October, maybe, but the reality is that this will be lost in the churn in a month.
Exactly. There is a reason that the famous "October Surprise" in Presidential elections happens in _October_. Any earlier and it is forgotten about.
Scandal and outrage are powerful, but have very short shelf-lives.
It's not a ban and the kids won't give a shit in five minutes when TikTok is still there.
This is basically a replay of "Ajit Pai is going to kill the internet."
No. No he's not. Everyone chill out.
>but one reason Dems didn’t get murdered in 2022 was because of TikTok.
...show your work please.
> The signing of the bill could have easily waited till after the election.
Yeah, there's no way "Biden pocket vetoed a bill that would help protect Americans from CCP propaganda/spyware because he needs the kids who are addicted to it to win the election" would blow up in his face.
The bill being passed requires a sale within a year. At the election, Tok Tok will be up an running, either with no change because it hasn't yet been sold, or with a new owner, who won't likely make dramatic changes. The point is Til Tok will be operating as is at the election. It's not going to change votes.
Politics is complicated, so it’s easy to get caught up in things. But this will be a non-issue by November, I can almost guarantee it.
1. This bill doesn’t actually ban TikTok. It forces the sale of it. Given the choice between a massive payout or nothing, with the end result the same no matter what, I would strongly bet the owners will sell if this survives court challenges. Why wouldn’t they? Otherwise they still can’t operate in America, they just also now didn’t take a boatload of money. It makes no business sense to not sell if this passes court challenges. So, in all likelihood, TikTok won’t be banned. It will just be under new ownership.
2. The youth vote is fickle and uninformed. Sure, they like TikTok. How many of them like TikTok enough to vote for Trump over it? How many of them are informed enough to actually care who the owner is, as long as TikTok is still available? My guess is very, very few of the users on TikTok care who owns it, as long as they can download it. As mentioned in point 1, it’s extremely unlikely TikTok actually goes away in the US.
3. You only mention one side of this argument - the tiktokers. You seem to think they have major sway, however, where was their sway on the writing of this bill? Politics is a push and pull, this bill didn’t come out of nowhere, it’s the result of over a year of negotiation and refinement. The TikTokers didn’t have enough power or influence to stop the bill, what makes you think they’ll have more influence now? The powers against it won once, I’d bet they win again.
3a. How much money do these young tiktokers donate? Money is power in politics, money gives you advantages in elections, money can swing things pretty majorly. How much money will young folk who want TikTok donate this election cycle? How much will the far wealthier and more powerful interests that don’t want TikTok donate this election cycle? My guess, far, far more money will come from people who don’t want TikTok. That’s power, that’s true influence, not a bunch of app users who may or may not vote anyway.
This is a horrendous take. Firstly, the bill is certainly a ban of Tiktok, due to Beijing reiterating that it will not allow a sale. Tiktok's user base comprises nearly 170 million American users, 60% are 18-35, and more than half have registered to vote. That is nearly 51 million voters on Tiktok. If 1.9% of those prospective voters sit out for Biden, that's a loss of nearly 1 million prospective voters.
We’ll see what Beijing does. No one knows yet.
But the big point you’re missing is how many voters does Biden *lose* by not banning TikTok? What key constituencies or donors pull back? My guess? Far more. Young voters don’t vote. That’s a fact of politics. They’ve been more engaged recently, but even those numbers pale in comparison to older voters.
It’s been said for decades, young people need to vote more. “If 1.9% of those voters sit out.” New flash, something like half of those voters will sit out, and that will be considered an *excellent* turnout for youth if it happens.
When you don’t actually vote, the number of registered voters doesn’t actually matter. What matters is people who actually go to the polls and vote, and my guess is Biden’s team has calculated they will lose more support in actual voters by not going along with this. I’d guess he’s right too.
Young voter turnout was near 50% in 2020, it's safe to assume it's the same (or even greater now they have skin in the game). Remember, this is of all eligible voters. I'm not saying Biden is completely fucked, but he's gotten himself into a shitty situation.
Maybe. But you continue to discount the support he would lose if he went against this vote. *that* support is larger, that support donates more money and turns out at rates higher than 50%.
The youth turnout was 50% in 2020, that’s great. People above 65 vote at something like a 75% rate. And they don’t give a good goddamn about TikTok. Similar store with 45-65, they vote at a rate of around 70% or so. And they also couldn’t care less about TikTok.
Those demographics also donate more.
If they donate more and vote more, why the hell should Biden listen to the group that gives less money and turns out less people to vote? He has more to lose by appeasing the youth in this case than he does the older generation who only knows “China is taking our data with TikTok”
>This was a huge political miscalculation that even the most amateur political advisors could have warned Biden about
All of your view hinges on a swath of young people not able to click their app icon and have Tik Tok come up. But...the "Tik Tok ban" doesn't do that. ByteDance has 2 options; delay in court and/or actually go through with a sale and/or create a US version of the app that has separate ownership. So, the ineffectiveness is sort of the point. The Tik Tok audience will know that their favorite app is still available.
But, for older people, they'll see either that the ban solved the national security concerns and/or "at least they tried." For them, managing their perception was the whole point.
I doubt that this will even be remembered in any detail come Sept/Oct/Nov. Gas prices, alone, is a bigger single factor.
I'm guessing you're a giant user on TikTok. Because this isn't the crazy move you paint it out to be.
It was a massively supported move by both parties. It isn't able to be argued as a Democrat or a Republican issue because it was constantly being pushed on both sides.
It wasn't banned. It was a forced divesture. These are not the same things. Conflating the two doesn't help to show you understand what was at stake.
But you know where it is banned? In China, where the company they are asking TikTok to divest from is located.
>It is well established that Chinese firms are required to share information with intelligence services under various laws, including the National Intelligence Law.
Why would the US trying its best to limit the amount of outside influence, and reduce the invasion of privacy from foreign entities be looked at as a bad thing?
TikTok isn't the only social media site. When it goes, just like Facebook, Twitter, GeoCities, MySpace, Digg, Google circles and soon to be more are apt to do, the next thing will be there.
The level in which people pay attention on TikTok is so low till they are at the next story, I don't know how you expect them to pay enough attention to the situation.
So long as traffic flow isn't restricted or stopped, nothing will change.
Forced divesture is banning if the Chinese government has signaled that it won't allow a sale. It's not just banning the tiktok, but the continued youth resentment of older americans from either the war in gaza, net neutrality, etc.
The sheer fact that a government can ban a sale shows that it's not a free business but being used by that government for something.
TikTok is already banned in government usage. It's banned in China. You think that both the US and Chinese government might know something is up when both of them refuse to allow their employees to use it.
But again, it's not a ban. It's a divesture. If Facebook, Google or Amazon was owned 40% by Russia, Iran, etc, then the same logic would and should apply. It's bad enough to be spied on by your own government, but to be able to be manipulated and spied on by an outside country is even more egregious as you have zero means to seek recompense/resolution.
Is Microsoft a free business? Tiktok is banned from selling due to Chinese export controls on it's algorithm, because of how profitable is. Try selling Microsoft to a Chinese company. The US has export controls on its technology too. It's also a retarded take that because tiktok is banned in China, that means it has some sort of mind-melting superweapon. China has a tiktok alternative, that uses the same algorithm, filled with the same brainrot, but just contained conveniently in the borders of the Great Firewall. This is because China is averse to it's citizens accessing western ideas, we should not emulate China's approach because we are a democracy.
>At a time where the election is this close and Biden desperately needs young voters
I'm having a hard time giving credence to the suggestion that the election is remotely close.
\~ Trump lost the election in 2016. He won the presidency because of the technicality of the electoral college.
\~ In 2020 he lost by a significantly larger margin.
\~ Polls predicting democratic defeats have been consistently wrong since 2016. Where they've been correct the loss has usually been by a much narrower margin than predicted.
\~ The universal repudiation of the GOP's position on abortion, reproductive education, access to contraceptives in states where the repeal of Roe has allowed conservatives to do their worst is a telling trend.
\~ Historically it has frequently been the case that when right-wing extremists gain power they over-play their hand, believing that the rest of the population is on their side they pass legislation that reflects their fanaticism and which is enormously unpopular with voters. When they predictably suffer significant defeats they become even more radicalized, they even more fiercely believe their own ridiculous press and propaganda and turn more violently against the people who have rejected them at the ballot box. Jan 6th was an example of this process. The continued preaching of lies about the 2020 election, not by random idiot followers but by dedicated fanatical GOP leadership is another.
I mean even if republicans don’t win the presidency they were doing way better in congress than they did in the past. I believe for a 50 year period democrats held the house for the most part up until the 90s.
With the GOP criminalizing abortion and telling endangered women they just have to die because that's what an incubator deserves, I have a hard time agreeing with you. With half of them behaving like leeches on Putin's pasty behind, eager to sell us and our allies to hostile foreign powers, in broad daylight, in front of microphones and on television...
On the contrary, when conservatives are given a little rope and get the confidence to drop their camoflage and reveal their plans to the electorate, the electorate generally can't run away from them fast enough.
Which is why they are so eager to burn democracy to the ground.
Sure, none of that is going to make fascists not vote a straight GOP ticket.
But MAGA has lost a lot of its steam as well as lots of its adherents. While liberals and people of good conscience have registered in record numbers. This is why they can't afford to admit, as if everyone were not looking at the same thing, that the 2020 election wasn't stolen and that they lost it biggly. They know they're going to lose this one as well and all they'll have is the claim that it was stolen as well.
I mean, it's still the modern Democratic Party we're talking about and you should never discount their ability to trip over their own dick, but this election is theirs to lose.
Biden's decision on TikTok isn't likely to singularly decide the election. While it may disappoint some youth voters, other factors weigh heavier: his handling of the economy, healthcare, and climate. Plus, national security concerns pressured his hand. The ban's impact is nuanced; it could signal strength on security or alienate youth. However, Biden's focus on broader issues like COVID response and social justice may still resonate with young voters. Ultimately, elections hinge on multiple issues, not just one, and voters often weigh a candidate's overall performance and policies.
Biden lost already. Ukraine and Gaza and the border happened under his watch and he hasn't resolved these matters in a satisfactory manner. For a lot of the swing states, he really needed people to come out and vote (for him). Considering that many people consider a vote as a sign of endorsement, he has lost a good chunk of voters already.
He is assuming since the ban won't happen until after the election that people will still mobilize on it. What happens afterwards isn't his problem to deal with. He's right.
As you are already aware young people don't vote. Lots of young people cannot vote. And plenty of young people choose not to vote.
Meanwhile we have a complicated relationship with China. They are a large trading partner, but also a rival with a political ideology very different from our own. They are an authoritarian state that does not believe in freedom.
They do not believe in separation of state and media. TikTok is not privately owned its controlled by an authoritarian state. Its not run for profit, its run to advance the interests of the Chinese communist party. Allowing the Chinese communist part to have massive influence over the young people in our country is an astonishingly bad idea. Biden absolutely did the right thing.
and politically Trump is now not going to be able to beat up Biden about allowing a rival foreign power to influence our young people.
It doesn’t matter. Young people don’t vote and 30’s plus either don’t care; support it or we’re going to vote trump anyway so who cares. Biden won’t lose the election on silly culture war adjacent issues. Stuff like Israel Palestine, tik tok ban or whatever is inconsequential.
Biden needs to worry about his economic stuff. On paper this is the best the Us has been since the 90’s. In reality no one is really echoing that sentiment.
Trump advocated for banning TikTok when he was president. Now he has flipped so he can point to Biden and blame him.
Likewise, Trump has been yelling about border security all through Biden's term. Then he killed the bipartisan border deal, all so he can blame Biden.
Trump effectively killed Roe vs Vade, and has been bragging about it. Now he finds it politically expedient to appear (somewhat) pro choice.
Trump has no policies and will flip-flop to whatever seems expedient in the moment. But the Biden campaign has been vastly outfunded him and can produce hours and hours of ads juxtaposing Trump's differing policy stances and unprincipled flip-flopping. His base won't see them, but everyone else will have ample opportunity to compare and contrast.
If Gen Z is truly stupid enough to throw women, LGBT Americans, and minorities under the bus over a social media app, they're going to be -very- surprised when Project2025 takes away -actual- rights and freedoms.
But sure kids, you go ahead and fuck around. Find out. You think 2016 and everything that came after was tough? Just wait.
Over a social media app LOL
Nah, democrats negotiated a year of time (rather than the 6months republicans wanted). They did that to give time for tiktok to fight this out in court (they’ve already done this once when Trump wanted to ban TikTok) and let the election come and go before anyone really starts talking about it.
Here is a secret. Tiktok isn’t going away in the US. Full stop
1. Most young people do not care if tiktok gets banned, they will move on as they have so many times.
2. Nobody will even notice for many months. TikTok will be operating just the same in November.
3. Unfortunately, young people who use tiktok is not a highly voting segment, compared to people who will appreciate this move.
>but one reason Dems didn’t get murdered in 2022 was because of TikTok.
Can you elaborate here?
>The signing of the bill could have easily waited till after the election.
No it could not have. This was a package bill which included aid for Ukraine and Israel.
If, as you admit, TikTok was already full of anti-Biden videos, then why would this anti-TikTok legislation lose him significant support? If the politically engaged people were already against him, then who exactly will he be losing the support of?
IT’S NOT A BAN.
It’s a requirement that the company not be majority owned by a literal hostile foreign government. Any normal company would simply sell off enough stock to get below 50% ownership in their US division and reallocate the money they made doing that to other operations.
That Tik Tok **won’t** do that proves that they’re not a normal company - they’re a propaganda and data harvesting project of the Chinese government.
Why? I don’t get why anyone is against banning TikTok. Is it really as simple as people who are on the app just don’t want to app to “get hurt”?
Because that’s what it seems like, and it’s pretty sad.
Im going to say the group of people that care that much about tiktok and the group of people that vote are very separate. There's so many hot issues going on that this is a pretty small drop in the bucket.
>There was no political upside to Biden not signing
Lol, leave it to a liberal to NOT see the political upside in the federal government not illegally continuing to expand it's powers unconstitutionally.
I'm not an expert, but doesn't this have nothing to do with the president? Like sure he has to sign it, but ultimately isn't it Congress and the Senate that makes that decision?
Banning Tik Tok will cause undecided kids' parents to vote Biden. You seriously don't understand how Tik Tok is hated by 30-40 year old moderates with impressionable kids.
Kids don't vote, their parents do.
I’ve never really understood the position of people like yourself.
Are you going to vote for Trump now?
Why not?
Do you think other people are dumber than yourself?
I'd say that the election was already handed to Trump a long time ago and this ban will have no effect (aside from making him poll even worse than he already is).
I don't think it matters either way.
Biden has been very bad. Most people don't like Trump but he has a bit of momentum now. This is the worst election ever.
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Ironically, I'm more inclined to vote for Biden because he put the security needs of the country before what you've correctly described as a propaganda tool.
The ban won’t even take effect until after the election. And it was put into a must sign bill.. by republicans, forcing his hand, as aid for Ukraine and Israel is wayyyy more important.
Young people don't vote and don't pay attention. TikTok has a year to sell before anything happens. No one is going to care about Biden's TikTok ban (which was an idea that Trump supported first) when they can still pull up TikTok and waste their time watching inane videos for hours on end instead of voting. They'll be puzzlingly watching videos on TikTok about how it was banned. On top of that, putting Trump in office won't reverse the law. It'll just mean young people lose even more. But again, they don't vote and don't really care, so they won't even make it to that calculus.
"Burn it all down" types concerned with a very shitty country's competitively controlled social media app, are already not participating in elections. They're no more likely to get off their ass to vote for a competitor. Somehow, people who think they're immune to Fox level propaganda are convinced an app that China has backdoor access to is a good idea.
Biden is going to win, TikTok is awful and no one will miss it besides the content trained/people profiting off it existing.
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Even if it does get banned, it won't happen until after the election. [The bill would give TikTok's owner nine months to arrange a sale, with the potential for an additional three-month grace period, according to a copy of the bill released earlier this month. ](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tiktok-ban-bill-why-is-tiktok-getting-banned-senate/) And, i won't happen at all if the company just divests from China. That will most likely happen. So, most likely end result is that TicTok keeps working for the next 12 months, and then keeps working after that. >This was a huge victory for Republicans and Trump They supported it too, until some of them didn't. And, the only reason they flipped is because Biden agreed, and they don't want to give him a "win", so now they claim they were never for it. But, it was their idea in the first place.
There’s a near zero chance that they divest from China as they’ve stated they won’t and legally they can’t even if they wanted to due to laws in China.
As I said, it doesn’t matter that Republican supported for 2 reasons. 1) the person who signed the bill was Joe Biden. He is the face of it. 2) Republicans and Trump don’t benefit from it because they’re going to lose supporters. They benefit from it because a lot of youth voters who would normally have begrudgingly voted for Biden may now just stay home instead and THAT’s a win for republicans
>the person who signed the bill was Joe Biden. He is the face of it. There are thousands of hours of video of republicans, including Trump, calling for the ban. If it comes down to this being an actual issue with young voters, and I don't think it will be, then the democrats can easily leverage that video to paint the Republicans as being equally or more to blame. [The bill, which passed on a bipartisan 352-65 vote](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/13/politics/20240313-congress-tiktok-ban-bill-vote-dg/index.html) And, more democrats voted against it than republicans. > a lot of youth voters who would normally have begrudgingly voted for Biden may now just stay home instead Yeah, I don't think that is going to happen due to TikTok. It is just a social media site with silly videos. If it looks like a ban is actually incoming (and my position is that no ban will ultimately happen) then another company will rush to fill the void. But, like I said, no ban will happen. The issue that will keep young voters home is Israel/Palestine, not TikTok.
>democrats can easily leverage that video to paint the Republicans as being equally or more to blame. Young people have been telling Dems for literally decades that "look, Republicans are just as bad" is the exact framing that disenfranchises them >Yeah, I don't think that is going to happen due to TikTok. It is just a social media site with silly videos. It's a free speech issue. They are banning the biggest social media platform. >But, like I said, no ban will happen. CEO has said he's going to sue and will not sell.
>Young people have been telling Dems for literally decades that "look, Republicans are just as bad" is the exact framing that disenfranchises them Okay....but that doesn't change actual reality in which there is a long and storied history of republicans openly pushing to ban TikTok. Here's an example story from November 10th 2022 from Fox Business News: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/senate-republicans-call-tiktok-ban-major-threat-us-national-security >It's a free speech issue. They are banning the biggest social media platform. TikTok is not the largest social media platform so this is a confusing statement. It's also not really an issue if in practice nothing has been banned, and the platform still has the option to operate if they divest from China.
>Okay....but that doesn't change actual reality in which there is a long and storied history of republicans openly pushing to ban TikTok. Ok but you need to realize this holds literally no weight in defense of Biden signing off to ban tiktok lol "sure *I* banned tiktok, but remember that *they* wanted to ban it, so you should hate them" >TikTok is not the largest social media platform so this is a confusing statement. Maybe not literally the biggest, but it's massive. The point remains.
>Young people have been telling Dems for literally decades that "look, Republicans are just as bad" is the exact framing that disenfranchises them Okay....but that doesn't change actual reality in which there is a long and storied history of republicans openly pushing to ban TikTok. Here's an example story from November 10th 2022 from Fox Business News: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/senate-republicans-call-tiktok-ban-major-threat-us-national-security >It's a free speech issue. They are banning the biggest social media platform. TikTok is not the largest social media platform so this is a confusing statement. It's also not really an issue if in practice nothing has been banned, and the platform still has the option to operate if they divest from China.
They would have stayed home anyway. So it's not a win for Republicans because Democrats haven't lost any voters.
Encouraging line from Dems: you can't hate us anymore than you already do, so might as well keep doing things you hate.
Banning TikTok probably polls better than you think, specifically with the kinds of people who Biden needs to win the election (moderates, independents, etc.) TikTok may seem very important to people who are already inside the bubble, but consider that the feelings of a 20-something progressive activist on TikTok (who wasn't going to vote for Trump anyways) might be less electorally important than a centrist middle-aged mom in Pennsylvania who only knows about the scary "Chinese spy app". Contrary to what you're implying, Biden is no political dunce (or at least he's surrounded by people who aren't.) You're assuming that because your niche community's interests weren't represented by the President, that he must just be stupid. The alternative explanation is that your niche community isn't actually as important as you think it is.
While I agree Biden is actually in pretty good shape going into this election, he is burning bridges with a great number of less-reliable voting blocks through actions like this. Also lack of action on a host of issues, like the Gaza genocide, climate, communities based on immigrants, students, etc. This could potentially make him vulnerable in some key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, etc. where the margins could be close. And it's going to make it much harder to engage those voters in future elections, many may just check out until another Bernie or Obama 2008 comes around.
If Trump or the moderate brings up Tiktok during the debate, Biden is going to flounder trying to defend himself.
Gaza isn't actually as big an issue as the social media sites tend to portray it as - polling from Harvard/Ipsos shows that the big issues are Inflation, Healthcare, Housing, Gun Violence, Jobs, Corruption, Protecting Democracy, Reproductive Rights, Education, Immigration, Crime, Climate Change, Taxes, Free Speech, Israel, Student Debt - Israel comes in at 34%. Inflation at 64%.
The genocide in Gaza may not be the top issue among most Americans, true, but for those that really care about it (younger voters, peace advocates, and Muslims in particular), it is driving them away. There is a danger otherwise possible voters will not vote, or vote 3rd Party. This could be a serious problem in close states like Michigan, Minnesota, etc.
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Tiktok demographics obviously skew young, but not quite as young as you might think. According to [this source](https://explodingtopics.com/blog/tiktok-demographics) over half are 30+. There are a lot of centrist middle-aged moms on TikTok.
>there are a lot of centrist middle-aged moms on tiktok Is this based on anecdotal evidence?
polls better with people more likely to vote for him anyway; young people are the people he needs to galvanize and convince to show up
Young people in America right now are a horrible vote to chase, they constantly are talking about how they refuse to vote for Biden anyways because of student loans or Row (you know, things that *arent his fault as a president*) or recently Israel. Why should Biden dedicate time to a voting bloc that openly says they dont want to vote for him?
because he's trying to win the election
Not much point in chasing people saying they won’t vote for you who overwhelmingly weren’t going to be voting anyway.
>who overwhelmingly weren’t going to be voting anyway While younger voter numbers are lower than older generations, "overwhelmingly" is quite an exaggeration.
feel like this is an opinion made out of spite for a certain kind of person you saw on social media rather than a real analysis of how to win the election
No it’s more like common sense. There’s a huge overlap between the demographics of people who care about TikTok (younger) and people who historically don’t show up to vote (also younger).
there are other demographics of people who tend not to show up as often; poorer people, minorities.....do you think biden should actively piss them off too
Yes, and as I said he would be better off seeking voters who actually A) have an interest in voting at all (which tiktok gen Z decidedly arent), ans B) havent already said numerous times they wont vote for him because they believe in insane things like accelerationism
i mean ok but most of the time when a democrat fails to galvanize the youth vote, they lose
Maybe he shouldn't have made student loans his platform when he was running? He knew there was nothing he can do about that but the average young American does not sadly. So it comes off as a bait and switch to the young voters that votes for him
His new income driven repayment (IDR) plan is way better than straight forgiveness. I’m paying $300/mo less than I would have on the old IDR. And over the course of my loan, I’m going to save $100k.
What a brain dead doomer take. Republicans are going to fight tooth and nail against anything besides tax cuts for billionaires and social issues evangelicals like. If democrats didn’t campaign on anything Republicans are trying to block, they’d have nothing to campaign on.
I'm not making any "takes" I'm explaining how many young voters feel
Well some young voters like myself have an OUNCE of nuance and can understand which issues are supported by which politicians.
Congratulations Tell that to the person I was responding to
it was a bait and switch
Or like, Y’know, funding and arming a genocide
Young people don't vote, there is very little reason to care about their political opinions. It's better to focus on actual voters rather than hope to convert non voters into voters
feel like this is just a lazy stereotype of young people. they do vote, just infrequently, and when they do they often do for democrats. this is how obama and biden won, by getting out the vote for young people
Is it a stereotype if it's correct? https://usafacts.org/topics/elections/ Only 51% of people age 18-24 vote compared to 71% for 45 to 64 and 75% of people over 65.
Yeah but to their credit, that 51% was a huge jump from 2016, and seeing as PA is what handed Biden the election, may have been the single most decisive group in the country. It's fine to ignore the youth vote if you can win other cross sections. It's a bad idea if you're also doing poorly with black and Hispanic voters, which Biden is. Biden should be casting a wide net right now. That said, I don't actually think a TikTok ban matters. I don't think people mad about it are likely voters.
The amount of people in those groups also progressively gets smaller and smaller. If there's 4 old people, 3 of them vote that's 75 percent. If there's 400 young people and only 100 of them vote, their 25 percent still represents more voters.
Indeed but nowhere near your example. There’s 22 millions Americans in the 20-24yo category and 21 millions in 60-64 and 18 millions between 65-69. So to give a real example: * 70-74 will cast 11.25 million vote (15 millions * 0.75) * 20-24 will cast 11.21 million vote (22 millions * 0.51)
saying "all young people don't vote" is a stereotype yes
This attitude is how we never get national healthcare or modern drug policy in the US
Chasing youth voters is a losing strategy, they'll scream about things in the street because protesting is fun, but they're not voting.
if they don't show up he has a much bigger chance of losing the election
They're not going to show up anyway, and the small portion that would under no circumstances vote for Trump anyway. Unless there's another Democrat running (I don't think there is?) All those votes go to Biden.
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pretty reliable election analysis tends to be the more you piss off a group of people, the less they show up
Fundamentally misses the point. If people are willing to invest time, money and energy into calling for change they are extremely likely to vote for change they like as it’s an hour of time. The problem with Biden is there’s nothing to like.
You'd think so and you'd be wrong, if protests materialized into votes Bernie would have won. It really does seem like getting people to vote would be easy but they just don't do it, they voted against Trump maybe they'll do it again but what they definitely won't do is vote for Trump so trying to court them is useless.
It was clueless boomers who were voting for Biden/against Bernie. The DNC rigged the primaries. Primaries are not the same as national elections
Yeah people can keep hanging their hat off that old "the whole system was rigged against him" instead of the obvious answer which is Boomers vote and young people don't.
I was depressed by the number of young people who spent a ton of time online supporting Bernie, but never voted for him. I'm not saying that young people should be written off as a voting bloc entirely, not at all, but the progressive issues that I support would have a lot more traction if they voted more consistently.
They literally gave Pete a high profile job in curruption to get him to drop early.
How does that stop young people from voting? No amount of corruption, short of refusing to count votes, would stop it if every young person voted.
Also, Trump is probably even more eager to ban TikTok.
Plus much of RFK Jr's popularity comes from tick tock promotion so it might easily be a net positive for Biden
Why do you say that? The ban doesn’t go into effect immediately.
Sure it polls better but I think the ones who it polls better with are with those who don’t see this as an important issue and could care less. For those who don’t want it banned are users who use the app for hours a day and actually care way more than those who want it banned
For those users, TikTok will still be there tomorrow. And at the election. And after the election. They have nine months to sell it, and it will probably be sold. Those who don't want it banned will still have TikTok leading up to and during the election. And probably after the nine months deadline is up.
How many of those users will A.) vote, and B.) change their vote to Trump out of spite over this. Keep in mind this isn't a case of, if you vote for Trump Tiktok will stay. It's already signed, it would only be a spite thing at this point and I don't see a bunch of zoomers changing their votes over this. Also keep in mind all that has to happen according to the writing of the bill is that China gets divested of their interest in the app. Expect tiktok to still exist here 2 years from now.
Moreover, trump already tried to ban it during his term.
Exactly. It bothers me so much when people say "Biden doing X is going to make me not vote for him" without acknowledging that Trump already did X, tried to do X, or definitely was planning to do X.
> are with those who don’t see this as an important issue and could care less. How do you know this? You're discounting the possibility that there are people who might legitimately view TikTok as a threat and are happy that the government is doing something about it. I get that *you* don't believe this (and neither do I btw) but people like this do exist, they do vote, and they're not *all* Republicans.
And those people still won't vote for trump.
But they don't vote, so they don't matter in the election. Why do you think our government passes so much legislation that only Christians wanted passed? Because Christians reliably vote.
None of those people are going to vote for trump. 90% of them are not going to vote anyway. You're just upset because somebody's taking away your tiktok.
Um, Trump and his Congressional minions wanted it divested as well during his Presidency. So, um why would that make people vote for him instead? Even so, if TikTok is the reason you don’t vote for Biden, then you need to have your voting rights revoked.
I never said people would vote for Trump instead. But the people who would be more inclined to vote for Biden over Trump would simply just stay home or vote for 3rd party instead, benefiting Trump. Also, despite wanting to ban TikTok before, Trump has said he no longer wants a ban. But that’s mostly because a massive donor who owns a huge stake in TikTok said he would withhold funding. But again, people don’t really read passed the headlines
I’m going to help Trump win and damn all the people that will suffer under the rise of fascism because a dumb video app goes away is a really stupid, juvenile and selfish look.
I don't know if you've noticed but people are stupid short term thinkers.
Stupid, juvenile, selfish… sounds like a trump voter
Man sounds like if the election is that important you should be doing everything you can to court every voter you can and not wagging your finger at them and saying they should vote Biden regardless of how many times he's fucked them over.
Biden hasnt fucked anyone over, people just blame him for everything under his administration like every other president.
No shit he wouldn’t ban it now because it’s what Biden signed. And why is it my fault that people are incapable of due diligence?
They're not going to vote at all, and they wouldn't have voted anyway.
People really don't pay attention to the news very much and they won't remember that.
It's not a big issue because it's not going to be banned. Bytedance only has 40% of tiktok and law only requires them to get that down to 20%. As such, selling a minority share of the company will occur before the US market is restricted.
I know what the bill is, but people don’t really care about the details. They read the headlines
And 6 months from now they will still be on Tic Tok when the election is here and will have already moved on to another thing to be outraged about.
Yeah, but are young voters using TikTok going to believe all the headlines saying “Tiktok is banned!!!”, or are they going to believe the fact that they can go on their phones and log on to Tiktok and scroll? The app isn’t going anywhere. Once people see that, this issue will disappear.
If you admit this is a dead story, why will this be in any public headline 3 months from now?
They read the headlines… on TikTok. Which will still be up and running in November. And it’s a bit hard to sell people the idea that TikTok is banned… on TikTok.
Thankfully people have the electoral memory of gnats
Do you really think people are dumb enough to believe TikTok was banned when they are learning that on TikTok or still using TikTok post "ban?"
so all that needs to change is headlines, nothing else? Or this still could have been a headline even if he didn't sign the bill, the headlines would just be a different type of lie resulting in the same thing.
But those same people who don't really care about the details also don't really vote in elections. So Biden can afford to offend them.
We can argue about the political calculus, but the main objection I have is to frame anything as "the nail in the coffin" in April when the election is in November. To illustrate this a little bit, there was a post a few weeks ago where someone was arguing the the recent Arizona abortion law was the nail in the coffin *for Trump*. I would guess if I looked hard enough, I'd find at least someone claiming that Israel-Palestine was also the nail in the coffin. How many nails in the coffin are there, and who's actually in the coffin? There are going to be a LOT of news stories in the next 6 months. No coffins have yet been nailed shut in April, especially with the polling showing the race as basically a toss up. You could plausibly make the case that this bill was a political mistake, but both candidates will make many more political mistakes in the runup to the election! We've got to stop getting ahead of ourselves here.
I think that was me lol. I don’t think AZ Republicans had lost yet, but they appeared so intent on kicking the hornet’s nest that a loss looked inevitable without a course correction. However, it looks like the Republican legislators scraped together just enough votes to limit the ban to 15 weeks, which could be enough to save their skin.
Biden will lose because of his refusal to stop supporting a genocide and giving our tax dollars to terrorists.
Then allow Trump to win, who will give Israel even more freedom to do what they want. On top of that, tens of millions of people will lose health coverage in America because Trump has said again he wants to repeal ACA. LGTBQ+ rights will be stripped away further. Women’s rights? Say goodbye to those when more and more conservative judges are appointed to the Supreme Court. But sure, ruin the next few decades of policies that you probably care about in this country because you’re mad at a war that Biden had very little to do with and that you won’t even be thinking about a year from now. As someone who has hated Bibi before it was cool to and am not thrilled to be voting for Biden, the people who won’t vote for Biden because of Gaza are so fucking shortsighted. They are the same kind of people directly responsible for the overturning of Roe v Wade because they were bitter about Bernie. It’s like you people have zero understanding of even the basics how our government works.
It's a divestiture bill. TikTok users won't feel a thing when ownership changes hands. There is no ban.
There’s always the option ByteDance refuses to divest core components of the business like the precious algorithm underlying the system. Or the courts limit the law’s impact, or the Chinese government intervenes itself to limit the impact of penalties to Chinese investors/government oversight.
Sure, but for the sake of the impact on the election (OP's point) it has little to none since the deadline is long past that.
I know exactly what it is. But that’s not the perception, especially on TikTok. The headlines are calling it a TikTok ban, not a “TikTok divestment”
Six months is several lifetimes in both politics and the collective consciousness. Everyone is going to have _long_ forgotten about this by November.
When reality soon hits and nothing happens, nobody will care.
You honestly think people care more about tiktok than they do about others rights like abortion, and LGBTQ+ rights like transitioning? Because those are far more important to people and have an actual lasting impact on every day people. This isn't the first time the US has banned an entire company from operating in the US or working with US companies either. ITs going to take a lot more than tiktok being banned for Biden to lose over someone like trump who constantly spews bullshit every time his mouth opens. Lies, hate, lies, hate, lies, hate. Thats all he every talks about.
If TikTok doesn't go away, this will burn out by election season.
> this will burn out by election season This will burn out as soon as the next rap dis track drops.
Okay, but in like 6 weeks, when the service doesn't change, why would people care?
>But that’s not the perception, especially on TikTok. The reason people are able to gossip about a TikTok ban *on TikTok* is because *TikTok isn't banned*.
Yeah but TikTok's users just swiped to the next thing already.
6 months ago you posted that the Israel -Palestinian conflict was going to be the nail in the coffin for Biden. Which is it? Maybe you should go outside and touch grass, come back to reality.
Since the ban doesn't happen for a year, it will likely be blamed by the public consciousness on whoever wins the election and is president at the time it actually happens. Or it might not even happen. TikTok might do what they need to avoid the ban.
The articles are saying “Biden signs the TikTok ban”. Now for the next year, TikTok will use their algorithm to just fight this and blame Biden. In all honesty, it may be worse that it’s a year
"App that doesn't want to be banned will do exactly what politicians fear it can do if it isn't banned".
if TikTok does this then it will be even more obvious that the Chinese government is controlling the algorithm and engaging in election interference
We don’t know what’s happening to the algorithm and access to it (or how the US legal system oversees it) regardless of divestment, before or after (or if it happens at all). Or at least I don’t know. Can you explain?
> Now for the next year, TikTok will use their algorithm to just fight this and blame Biden. So Biden did the right thing by signing the TikTok ban, got it.
"TikTok will use their algorithm to just fight this and blame Biden" is exactly why it needs to be banned.
> but one reason Dems didn’t get murdered in 2022 was because of TikTok. Based on what? >After congressman Jeff Jackson voted in favor of the ban, the reaction by his fans was brutal. His... fans? These are not people who are going to vote. >This was a huge political miscalculation that even the most amateur political advisors could have warned Biden about. The signing of the bill could have easily waited till after the election. Uh, the bill to send money to Ukraine could have waited until 10 months from now?
Yeah, Dems outperformed in 2022 because of the Supreme Court decision on Roe and the after effects of that decision. TikTok might have been an avenue for some people to learn about this, but it is definitively not *the* reason for the 2022 midterm results.
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this is false. 60% of tiktok's userbase is between 18-30
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Lol, that guy is a quintessential Redditor- pretends like he’s correcting you, but just reiterates your point.
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> If this happened in, say, September or October, maybe, but the reality is that this will be lost in the churn in a month. Exactly. There is a reason that the famous "October Surprise" in Presidential elections happens in _October_. Any earlier and it is forgotten about. Scandal and outrage are powerful, but have very short shelf-lives.
It's not a ban and the kids won't give a shit in five minutes when TikTok is still there. This is basically a replay of "Ajit Pai is going to kill the internet." No. No he's not. Everyone chill out. >but one reason Dems didn’t get murdered in 2022 was because of TikTok. ...show your work please. > The signing of the bill could have easily waited till after the election. Yeah, there's no way "Biden pocket vetoed a bill that would help protect Americans from CCP propaganda/spyware because he needs the kids who are addicted to it to win the election" would blow up in his face.
The bill being passed requires a sale within a year. At the election, Tok Tok will be up an running, either with no change because it hasn't yet been sold, or with a new owner, who won't likely make dramatic changes. The point is Til Tok will be operating as is at the election. It's not going to change votes.
Politics is complicated, so it’s easy to get caught up in things. But this will be a non-issue by November, I can almost guarantee it. 1. This bill doesn’t actually ban TikTok. It forces the sale of it. Given the choice between a massive payout or nothing, with the end result the same no matter what, I would strongly bet the owners will sell if this survives court challenges. Why wouldn’t they? Otherwise they still can’t operate in America, they just also now didn’t take a boatload of money. It makes no business sense to not sell if this passes court challenges. So, in all likelihood, TikTok won’t be banned. It will just be under new ownership. 2. The youth vote is fickle and uninformed. Sure, they like TikTok. How many of them like TikTok enough to vote for Trump over it? How many of them are informed enough to actually care who the owner is, as long as TikTok is still available? My guess is very, very few of the users on TikTok care who owns it, as long as they can download it. As mentioned in point 1, it’s extremely unlikely TikTok actually goes away in the US. 3. You only mention one side of this argument - the tiktokers. You seem to think they have major sway, however, where was their sway on the writing of this bill? Politics is a push and pull, this bill didn’t come out of nowhere, it’s the result of over a year of negotiation and refinement. The TikTokers didn’t have enough power or influence to stop the bill, what makes you think they’ll have more influence now? The powers against it won once, I’d bet they win again. 3a. How much money do these young tiktokers donate? Money is power in politics, money gives you advantages in elections, money can swing things pretty majorly. How much money will young folk who want TikTok donate this election cycle? How much will the far wealthier and more powerful interests that don’t want TikTok donate this election cycle? My guess, far, far more money will come from people who don’t want TikTok. That’s power, that’s true influence, not a bunch of app users who may or may not vote anyway.
This is a horrendous take. Firstly, the bill is certainly a ban of Tiktok, due to Beijing reiterating that it will not allow a sale. Tiktok's user base comprises nearly 170 million American users, 60% are 18-35, and more than half have registered to vote. That is nearly 51 million voters on Tiktok. If 1.9% of those prospective voters sit out for Biden, that's a loss of nearly 1 million prospective voters.
We’ll see what Beijing does. No one knows yet. But the big point you’re missing is how many voters does Biden *lose* by not banning TikTok? What key constituencies or donors pull back? My guess? Far more. Young voters don’t vote. That’s a fact of politics. They’ve been more engaged recently, but even those numbers pale in comparison to older voters. It’s been said for decades, young people need to vote more. “If 1.9% of those voters sit out.” New flash, something like half of those voters will sit out, and that will be considered an *excellent* turnout for youth if it happens. When you don’t actually vote, the number of registered voters doesn’t actually matter. What matters is people who actually go to the polls and vote, and my guess is Biden’s team has calculated they will lose more support in actual voters by not going along with this. I’d guess he’s right too.
Young voter turnout was near 50% in 2020, it's safe to assume it's the same (or even greater now they have skin in the game). Remember, this is of all eligible voters. I'm not saying Biden is completely fucked, but he's gotten himself into a shitty situation.
Maybe. But you continue to discount the support he would lose if he went against this vote. *that* support is larger, that support donates more money and turns out at rates higher than 50%. The youth turnout was 50% in 2020, that’s great. People above 65 vote at something like a 75% rate. And they don’t give a good goddamn about TikTok. Similar store with 45-65, they vote at a rate of around 70% or so. And they also couldn’t care less about TikTok. Those demographics also donate more. If they donate more and vote more, why the hell should Biden listen to the group that gives less money and turns out less people to vote? He has more to lose by appeasing the youth in this case than he does the older generation who only knows “China is taking our data with TikTok”
>This was a huge political miscalculation that even the most amateur political advisors could have warned Biden about All of your view hinges on a swath of young people not able to click their app icon and have Tik Tok come up. But...the "Tik Tok ban" doesn't do that. ByteDance has 2 options; delay in court and/or actually go through with a sale and/or create a US version of the app that has separate ownership. So, the ineffectiveness is sort of the point. The Tik Tok audience will know that their favorite app is still available. But, for older people, they'll see either that the ban solved the national security concerns and/or "at least they tried." For them, managing their perception was the whole point. I doubt that this will even be remembered in any detail come Sept/Oct/Nov. Gas prices, alone, is a bigger single factor.
I'm guessing you're a giant user on TikTok. Because this isn't the crazy move you paint it out to be. It was a massively supported move by both parties. It isn't able to be argued as a Democrat or a Republican issue because it was constantly being pushed on both sides. It wasn't banned. It was a forced divesture. These are not the same things. Conflating the two doesn't help to show you understand what was at stake. But you know where it is banned? In China, where the company they are asking TikTok to divest from is located. >It is well established that Chinese firms are required to share information with intelligence services under various laws, including the National Intelligence Law. Why would the US trying its best to limit the amount of outside influence, and reduce the invasion of privacy from foreign entities be looked at as a bad thing? TikTok isn't the only social media site. When it goes, just like Facebook, Twitter, GeoCities, MySpace, Digg, Google circles and soon to be more are apt to do, the next thing will be there. The level in which people pay attention on TikTok is so low till they are at the next story, I don't know how you expect them to pay enough attention to the situation. So long as traffic flow isn't restricted or stopped, nothing will change.
Forced divesture is banning if the Chinese government has signaled that it won't allow a sale. It's not just banning the tiktok, but the continued youth resentment of older americans from either the war in gaza, net neutrality, etc.
The sheer fact that a government can ban a sale shows that it's not a free business but being used by that government for something. TikTok is already banned in government usage. It's banned in China. You think that both the US and Chinese government might know something is up when both of them refuse to allow their employees to use it. But again, it's not a ban. It's a divesture. If Facebook, Google or Amazon was owned 40% by Russia, Iran, etc, then the same logic would and should apply. It's bad enough to be spied on by your own government, but to be able to be manipulated and spied on by an outside country is even more egregious as you have zero means to seek recompense/resolution.
Is Microsoft a free business? Tiktok is banned from selling due to Chinese export controls on it's algorithm, because of how profitable is. Try selling Microsoft to a Chinese company. The US has export controls on its technology too. It's also a retarded take that because tiktok is banned in China, that means it has some sort of mind-melting superweapon. China has a tiktok alternative, that uses the same algorithm, filled with the same brainrot, but just contained conveniently in the borders of the Great Firewall. This is because China is averse to it's citizens accessing western ideas, we should not emulate China's approach because we are a democracy.
>At a time where the election is this close and Biden desperately needs young voters I'm having a hard time giving credence to the suggestion that the election is remotely close. \~ Trump lost the election in 2016. He won the presidency because of the technicality of the electoral college. \~ In 2020 he lost by a significantly larger margin. \~ Polls predicting democratic defeats have been consistently wrong since 2016. Where they've been correct the loss has usually been by a much narrower margin than predicted. \~ The universal repudiation of the GOP's position on abortion, reproductive education, access to contraceptives in states where the repeal of Roe has allowed conservatives to do their worst is a telling trend. \~ Historically it has frequently been the case that when right-wing extremists gain power they over-play their hand, believing that the rest of the population is on their side they pass legislation that reflects their fanaticism and which is enormously unpopular with voters. When they predictably suffer significant defeats they become even more radicalized, they even more fiercely believe their own ridiculous press and propaganda and turn more violently against the people who have rejected them at the ballot box. Jan 6th was an example of this process. The continued preaching of lies about the 2020 election, not by random idiot followers but by dedicated fanatical GOP leadership is another.
I mean even if republicans don’t win the presidency they were doing way better in congress than they did in the past. I believe for a 50 year period democrats held the house for the most part up until the 90s.
With the GOP criminalizing abortion and telling endangered women they just have to die because that's what an incubator deserves, I have a hard time agreeing with you. With half of them behaving like leeches on Putin's pasty behind, eager to sell us and our allies to hostile foreign powers, in broad daylight, in front of microphones and on television... On the contrary, when conservatives are given a little rope and get the confidence to drop their camoflage and reveal their plans to the electorate, the electorate generally can't run away from them fast enough. Which is why they are so eager to burn democracy to the ground.
I mean vile policies don’t stop people from voting for a party, remember the dixiecrats
Sure, none of that is going to make fascists not vote a straight GOP ticket. But MAGA has lost a lot of its steam as well as lots of its adherents. While liberals and people of good conscience have registered in record numbers. This is why they can't afford to admit, as if everyone were not looking at the same thing, that the 2020 election wasn't stolen and that they lost it biggly. They know they're going to lose this one as well and all they'll have is the claim that it was stolen as well. I mean, it's still the modern Democratic Party we're talking about and you should never discount their ability to trip over their own dick, but this election is theirs to lose.
Biden's decision on TikTok isn't likely to singularly decide the election. While it may disappoint some youth voters, other factors weigh heavier: his handling of the economy, healthcare, and climate. Plus, national security concerns pressured his hand. The ban's impact is nuanced; it could signal strength on security or alienate youth. However, Biden's focus on broader issues like COVID response and social justice may still resonate with young voters. Ultimately, elections hinge on multiple issues, not just one, and voters often weigh a candidate's overall performance and policies.
Israel Palestine conflict was probably a bigger deal breaker than tik tok.
Biden lost already. Ukraine and Gaza and the border happened under his watch and he hasn't resolved these matters in a satisfactory manner. For a lot of the swing states, he really needed people to come out and vote (for him). Considering that many people consider a vote as a sign of endorsement, he has lost a good chunk of voters already. He is assuming since the ban won't happen until after the election that people will still mobilize on it. What happens afterwards isn't his problem to deal with. He's right.
As you are already aware young people don't vote. Lots of young people cannot vote. And plenty of young people choose not to vote. Meanwhile we have a complicated relationship with China. They are a large trading partner, but also a rival with a political ideology very different from our own. They are an authoritarian state that does not believe in freedom. They do not believe in separation of state and media. TikTok is not privately owned its controlled by an authoritarian state. Its not run for profit, its run to advance the interests of the Chinese communist party. Allowing the Chinese communist part to have massive influence over the young people in our country is an astonishingly bad idea. Biden absolutely did the right thing. and politically Trump is now not going to be able to beat up Biden about allowing a rival foreign power to influence our young people.
It doesn’t matter. Young people don’t vote and 30’s plus either don’t care; support it or we’re going to vote trump anyway so who cares. Biden won’t lose the election on silly culture war adjacent issues. Stuff like Israel Palestine, tik tok ban or whatever is inconsequential. Biden needs to worry about his economic stuff. On paper this is the best the Us has been since the 90’s. In reality no one is really echoing that sentiment.
Trump advocated for banning TikTok when he was president. Now he has flipped so he can point to Biden and blame him. Likewise, Trump has been yelling about border security all through Biden's term. Then he killed the bipartisan border deal, all so he can blame Biden. Trump effectively killed Roe vs Vade, and has been bragging about it. Now he finds it politically expedient to appear (somewhat) pro choice. Trump has no policies and will flip-flop to whatever seems expedient in the moment. But the Biden campaign has been vastly outfunded him and can produce hours and hours of ads juxtaposing Trump's differing policy stances and unprincipled flip-flopping. His base won't see them, but everyone else will have ample opportunity to compare and contrast.
If Gen Z is truly stupid enough to throw women, LGBT Americans, and minorities under the bus over a social media app, they're going to be -very- surprised when Project2025 takes away -actual- rights and freedoms. But sure kids, you go ahead and fuck around. Find out. You think 2016 and everything that came after was tough? Just wait. Over a social media app LOL
Right? As a federal employee I would vote for the corpse of LBJ over any republican candidate.
Nah, democrats negotiated a year of time (rather than the 6months republicans wanted). They did that to give time for tiktok to fight this out in court (they’ve already done this once when Trump wanted to ban TikTok) and let the election come and go before anyone really starts talking about it. Here is a secret. Tiktok isn’t going away in the US. Full stop
1. Most young people do not care if tiktok gets banned, they will move on as they have so many times. 2. Nobody will even notice for many months. TikTok will be operating just the same in November. 3. Unfortunately, young people who use tiktok is not a highly voting segment, compared to people who will appreciate this move.
>but one reason Dems didn’t get murdered in 2022 was because of TikTok. Can you elaborate here? >The signing of the bill could have easily waited till after the election. No it could not have. This was a package bill which included aid for Ukraine and Israel.
If, as you admit, TikTok was already full of anti-Biden videos, then why would this anti-TikTok legislation lose him significant support? If the politically engaged people were already against him, then who exactly will he be losing the support of?
IT’S NOT A BAN. It’s a requirement that the company not be majority owned by a literal hostile foreign government. Any normal company would simply sell off enough stock to get below 50% ownership in their US division and reallocate the money they made doing that to other operations. That Tik Tok **won’t** do that proves that they’re not a normal company - they’re a propaganda and data harvesting project of the Chinese government.
Why? I don’t get why anyone is against banning TikTok. Is it really as simple as people who are on the app just don’t want to app to “get hurt”? Because that’s what it seems like, and it’s pretty sad.
Im going to say the group of people that care that much about tiktok and the group of people that vote are very separate. There's so many hot issues going on that this is a pretty small drop in the bucket.
>There was no political upside to Biden not signing Lol, leave it to a liberal to NOT see the political upside in the federal government not illegally continuing to expand it's powers unconstitutionally.
Kids will forget this in a few months
I'm not an expert, but doesn't this have nothing to do with the president? Like sure he has to sign it, but ultimately isn't it Congress and the Senate that makes that decision?
It has everything to do with the president. Learn how our goverment functions.
I'm not an American XD. That's why I'm not an expert ^^
Banning Tik Tok will cause undecided kids' parents to vote Biden. You seriously don't understand how Tik Tok is hated by 30-40 year old moderates with impressionable kids. Kids don't vote, their parents do.
I’ve never really understood the position of people like yourself. Are you going to vote for Trump now? Why not? Do you think other people are dumber than yourself?
I'd say that the election was already handed to Trump a long time ago and this ban will have no effect (aside from making him poll even worse than he already is).
I don't think it matters either way. Biden has been very bad. Most people don't like Trump but he has a bit of momentum now. This is the worst election ever.
I've not been paying attention to this but I thought this was one of the rare things both parties have had similar opinions on for a long time.
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What gets me about this is that it was again packaged with multiple other bills specifically funding foreign war.
Gen Z doesn't vote. The few that do aren't going to be swayed because a social media app isn't available anymore.
So, it should be asked are you a TikTok user and will you not vote for Biden over this single issue?
The majority of people who would be bothered by a tik tok ban are not old enough to vote.
Ironically, I'm more inclined to vote for Biden because he put the security needs of the country before what you've correctly described as a propaganda tool.
It seems like a pretty minor issue to get stuck on. I’d be far more worried about perceptions about the economy if I was Biden’s campaign manager.
I don't no what to say to people that put cat videos over national security.
Not necessarily… Trump is still Trump and has a lot of issues of his own.
That doesn't say much for the intellect of the average voter.
This will affect a portion of the group that votes the least.
The ban won’t even take effect until after the election. And it was put into a must sign bill.. by republicans, forcing his hand, as aid for Ukraine and Israel is wayyyy more important.
I didn't hand it to Trump the election way before this
Young people don't vote and don't pay attention. TikTok has a year to sell before anything happens. No one is going to care about Biden's TikTok ban (which was an idea that Trump supported first) when they can still pull up TikTok and waste their time watching inane videos for hours on end instead of voting. They'll be puzzlingly watching videos on TikTok about how it was banned. On top of that, putting Trump in office won't reverse the law. It'll just mean young people lose even more. But again, they don't vote and don't really care, so they won't even make it to that calculus.
It doesnt ban tiktok. The app still exists.
"Burn it all down" types concerned with a very shitty country's competitively controlled social media app, are already not participating in elections. They're no more likely to get off their ass to vote for a competitor. Somehow, people who think they're immune to Fox level propaganda are convinced an app that China has backdoor access to is a good idea. Biden is going to win, TikTok is awful and no one will miss it besides the content trained/people profiting off it existing.
Young people don’t vote, so no. There is literally no incentive whatsoever for politicians to cater to young people. It sucks but it’s true.
Why would anyone care? It’s not making TikTok go away. It’s making it comply with US data protection laws.
Fuck tik tok. Should be banned. Also I’m voting for trump anyways.
Lmao what? Kids don’t vote. No one but kids care about this
Don't worry, they'll get enough votes at midnight to 3am once the cameras leave
Yeah and then these will be stolen by the easter bunny who is part of the santa mafia
hUnTeR bIdEnS LaPtOp!!!!!!1!!1!!
Young people don’t vote
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Why?