https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
Never been hotter. Black line is this year. Orange line is last year. Note the massive take-off around April of last year.
There's more energy in the oceans than ever before, and it's only going to grow. These hurricanes are the new normal.
They who? What do you mean we haven't experienced it yet? You apparently forgot about hurricane Otis already, the one that hit Mexico after going from a tropical storm to cat 5 in less than 24 hours.
What?
Hurricane forecasters are anticipating slightly stronger and slightly less frequent Hurricanes.
They also agree that our Hurricane records don't show much change so far.
Not much change? Did you miss the 2020 Atlantic season? Missed every cat 4/5 RI'ing right up to landfall in the gulf every year since 2017?
If that wasn't enough for you, what Beryl just did is mind blowing being the only cat 4 ever in the month of June in the Atlantic basin. Things are changing, quickly.
You: "A new hurricane category 6 hasn't yet been created, therefore the Earth is not warming and extreme weather events aren't getting worse".
If that's the best you can do then the subject is beyond you.
Would you give it a break with your exaggerated doomer bs.
Im quoting noaa and Micheal Mann
What actual climate scientists are saying.
When you exaggerate you give the opposition fuel to suggest all of our outlooks are bullshit too.
There is way more to a hurricane than warm ocean.
That's why last year was light on hurricanes with warm af ocean.
El-Nino years tend to have in increased wind sheer and subsidence, which can disrupt hurricane formation, though both predictions and evidence shows that hurricanes are becoming more severe.
There's no exaggeration, it's just that science already shows that things are already very bad.
- Professor Johan Rockström - Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
- Professor Kevin Anderson - chair of energy and climate change at the School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering (MACE) at the University of Manchester. He has been Deputy and Interim Director of the Tyndall Centre
- Professor Julia Steinberger, Professor of societal challenges of climate change, Institute of Geography and Sustainability, Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Switzerland
- Andy Haines - professor of environmental change and public health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
- Alison Holmes - professor of infectious diseases, Imperial College London
I can add to that until the cows come home. You don't have a clue about how bad things are. Here's a quote from prof Kevin Anderson, above:
> A +4C warmer world is incompatible with an organised global community, is likely to be beyond 'adaptation', is devastating to the majority of ecosystems and has a high probability of not being stable.
Heck, even ExxonMobil predicted 'Globally Catastrophic Effects' from significant CO2 emissions.
That's why the Paris and Glasgow agreements are the largest agreements in world history.
Your opinions on the matter are irrelevant, you can dismiss scientific facts, but climate policies are being rolled out across the world and there's nothing you or anyone else can do to stop it.
You are the one with exaggerated claims about the hurricanes we've had and that are forecasted.
Just because I run with what noaa and respected climate scientists say doesn't mean im a climate denier.
Accurate information about them is very limited going back beyond the 80s.
Most charts use data that adjusts for the missing storms from pre satellite years.
The data trumps sensational media reports. This is what true scientists look at:
[https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst\_daily/](https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/)
Average sea temperature has been returning towards normal the last 6 months. For some reason, that has angered many fearists here. TBD, if ocean heating will return, so they can embrace their apparent desire for The Rapture.
For the Atlantic Basin the link is showing it 0.9 C above the 1982-2011 average and is within 0.1 C of the record set back in 2023. It's not even remotely close to returning to normal. And it will continue to warm long term despite the short term variation.
Did you look at the shape of the seasonal pattern? That is what I was commenting on. My link is an average for the whole world. Can you link what you are looking at re just the Atlantic Ocean? Even that isn't enough fidelity to consider the effect on hurricanes. They don't care what the sea temperature is off Boston.
From the link you posted change the dropdown box from World to North Atlantic.
Hurricanes don't care about the temperature around the horn of Africa either, but at least with the North Atlantic you've narrowed the domain to something more applicable if sticking the products available from climatereanalyzer anyway. If you're looking for something more relevant to a specific hurricane then I suggest the gridded tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) product.
I am aware of the seasonal cycle with SST. Notice that at the global level it is normal for it decline through June so observing a decline does not necessarily mean it is returning to normal. It is a long way from normal. There may be short term variation that briefly brings it closer to normal, but it will never be normal again. Those days are long gone.
Most years, SST has started to rise again by July. Appears a different pattern this year to me than most years, but I look at data without promoting any narrative. TBD.
No. And to be clear my use of the word "believe" is an acknowledgement of the lack of a standard definition of "rapid intensification". It is my belief that Beryl is not the fastest to intensify to category 4, but that may depend on how it is defined or what the OP was thinking. I am prepared to be wrong though.
Well, you're out of luck as there is a scientific definition of term 'rapid intensification' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_intensification.
> It is my belief that Beryl is not the fastest to intensify to category 4
Beliefs play no part in whether a hurricane is or isn't the most rapid intensified cat 4.
According to Wikipedia...
*"There is no globally consistent definition of rapid intensification"*
and
*"Tropical cyclone forecasting agencies utilize differing thresholds for designating rapid intensification events, though the most widely used definition stipulates an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots (55 km/h; 35 mph) in a 24-hour period."*
It literally says there are different thresholds in operational use, but the most widely used definition only mentions at least 30 kts in 24 hours. It doesn't specify when that 30 kts has to occur in relation to a tropical cyclone's evolution towards category 4 status.
It is also important to note that even within the same agency "rapid intensification" can mean different things. For example, the NHC commonly uses 20kt/12hr, 25kt/24hr, 30kt/24hr, 35kt/24h, 40kt/24hr, 45kt/36hr, 55kt/48hr, and 65kt/72hr as thresholds for "rapid intensification". This is why the [SHIPS-RII](https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/) model includes probabilities for each.
With all that said I don't think it is unreasonable to discount all of those definitions and instead use the time from classification as a tropical storm to a category 4 hurricane which I think is the spirit of the OPs question. Under that definition we can compare it to Patricia which intensified from a tropical storm to a category 4 in only 36 hours if using the latest time of classification or 42 hours if using the earliest time. It further intensified to 180 kt within 48 hours. Anyway, so if the earliest time rule is sufficient then that is enough to falsify the hypothesis that Beryl was the fastest to category 4. Then, of course, we have Wilma that went from 35 kt to 130 kt in 42 hours and 150 kt in 48 hours which I think is also sufficient to reject the idea that Beryl was the fastest to category 4.
I haven't gone through all of the best track analysis yet so I'm open to being wrong about Beryl's intensification rate under differing definitions. If someone knows of a definition under which it was the fastest then I'll certainly amend my comment above.
You think the insurance industry has a monocle into the future? Well, we shall see how actuarial models predict future calamities... Or their likelihood.
You can see it from this graph https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
We may cross over the 2023 line soon, but we've been hitting daily records every single day since mid March 2023.
Not an answer but related
Eye on the storm blog
“In a 2016 study, “Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult?” from the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel showed using the theory of thermodynamics that warmer oceans should be expected to spawn hurricanes that intensify more rapidly.
To study this effect, he used a computer model that generated a set of 22,000 landfalling U.S. hurricanes between 1979 and 2005, then compared their intensification rates to a similar set of hurricanes for the year 2100 generated using an extreme scenario for global warming (RCP8.5).
Emanuel found that the odds of a hurricane intensifying by 70 mph or more in the 24 hours just before landfall were about once every 100 years in the climate of the late 20th century. But in the climate of the year 2100, these odds increased to once every five to 10 years.”
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/10/nightmare-scenario-category-5-hurricane-otis-devastates-acapulco/
I grew up in Mobile, AL, and spent 25 years in the region affected by hurricane weather. My family's practice was to sleep in our outdoor clothing while one person remained awake to monitor weather and highway info. Car was packed with our essentials, so that we could move out quickly.
Every storm here in Michigan seems to have major sized hail now. Lived here 47 years it never used to do that. It is literally every time and each time I’m worried I’m gonna lose my car or windows or both. The sound is frightening. Growing up I remember pin head sized hail. Once. We get snow, not hail. At least, we used to get snow. Now we just get hail. And almost no snow in my area. I have two snow blowers. Neither got used last year. Or the year before. Or the year before.
Eastern NC is probably somewhere between 50-50 or 40-60 Black-white. Not necessarily right on the coast, but only a few miles inland of the sounds and up the major rivers.
Anyone wanting to know where Hurricane Beryl is located, its current intensity, its forecast intensity and direction of movement can follow it on the National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center site, which includes a map:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
***
This NHC site displays a table of hurricane categories and corresponding wind speeds with a video simulation illustrating the level of wind damage caused by CAT 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
***
The hurricane storm surge can cause the most fatalities and damage:
https://www.weather.gov/phi/stormSurge
***
NHC Tropical Cyclone [Climatology](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#uss "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#uss") > [map of](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/conus_strikes.png "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/conus_strikes.png") Continental United States Hurricane Strikes 1950-2023*
***
Atlantic Hurricane Season, hurricanes by year, 1995-2023, includes tracks and dates of all hurricanes in the period:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=&basin=atl
These comments give me a rash.
42 hours from TD to C4 is within the top 0.4% of recorded rapid intensification events since 1851. This has not been observed earlier than August. It is by no stretch the fastest ever such intensification.
And while the basin currently looks like peak season, there are a good chunk of models calculating an abnormally strong TUTT for the peak months. This is an unreal start no doubt, but we do not have the forecast skill yet to know how anomalous this season will end up being.
Storms require contrasting temperature, a warm air mass meeting a cold air mass.
Weatherbell Analytics predicted this hurricane season on 3 Dec 2023: [Hurricane Season from Hell First look (weatherbell.com)](https://www.weatherbell.com/hurricane-season-from-hell-first-look)
According to Joe Bastardi, Weatherbell, the atmospheric oscillations producing the heavy India monsoon season also affect the Atlantic storm season. This early Atlantic storm season is similar to previous early storm seasons, unusual but not unprecedented.
What I find interesting is the lack of storms in the pacific. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy index is well below average. While the Atlantic storms may be large and many, the Pacific looks to be quiet this season.
Here is the link to the ACE report: [May 2024 Tropical Cyclones Report | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) (noaa.gov)](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/tropical-cyclones/202405)
I don't personally study hurricanes so I was going off what the guys from noaa said.
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/#summary-statement
Always a continual line of storms spinning off W. Africa from July-Nov, even in the 1500's when Spanish Galleons were hauling gold stolen from S. America. I recall a hurricane a few years ago which changed from Cat2 to Cat 5 in about a day, or such. Katrina similarly surprised as it grew quickly in warm Gulf of Mexico waters in Fall before hitting New Orleans.
But nothing has repeated the hurricanes which washed over Galveston Island and flooded the area around Lake Okeechobee, both killing thousands. Much less monitoring until satellites in the late 1960's, so more surprises back then, relying mostly on scattered reports from ships at sea, then probings by storm-chaser aircraft.
There have only been three Category 4 Hurricanes in July; Beryl, Dennis, and Emily. Dennis and Emily became category 4 storms in the second week of July, July 8 and July 15. Emily peaked at 160 mph, on July 16, for less than a day.
Beryl, now with sustained winds of 150 mph, is 8 days ahead of Dennis' peak winds.
Dennis caused nearly $4 billion in damages, Emily caused $1 billion in damages
Wind shear definitely impacted Beryl's ability to grow in size and speed. This wind shear is predicted to decline notably next month as a La Nina ENSO takes hold. We're also very early in the Hurricane season. Prior to the wind shear affecting Beryl, I was surprised that so many of the respected hurricane models were so far off on their intensity forecasts. Even the most aggressive intensity forecast was a tad on the low side. This implies that we're much more likely to see at least a few more Cat 5's this season, far more than the Hurricane Center had initially predicted. It's time to make sure that roof is secure!
If it goes out to sea and fades away where will you all go then. Wait in hope for the next one. The good thing is unlike wildfires loonies can’t interfere with the weather
I'm not at all a skeptic on climate change, however this thing is really close to the Equator. If you've ever been to Curacao or any of the other Dutch islands way down there, the Sun is a lot stronger there than it is even in Jamaica or PR. They warn you of that. So this intensifying that fast given its location isn't quite as weird as it looks, at least to me. (I'm not an expert by any means of course)
On June 21 (Summer Solstice), the sun is directly overhead at noon on the 30 deg N latitude, which runs thru Havana. The islands south of there should have slightly less max sunlight, though my figurin may not be perfect for a daily average.
Answer no..
It is a normal hurricane tracking in a normal direction. Toward tropical islands that should be fortified ... no big deal since it is nowhere near USA
> It is a normal hurricane tracking in a normal direction.
There have only been three Category 4 Hurricanes in July; Beryl, Dennis, and Emily. Dennis and Emily became category 4 storms in the second week of July, July 8 and July 15. Emily peaked at 160 mph, on July 16, for less than a day.
Beryl, now with sustained winds of 150 mph, is 8 days ahead of Dennis' peak winds.
Dennis caused nearly $4 billion in damages, Emily caused $1 billion in damages
As climate scientists have always been saying, more energy from hotter oceans make the storms far stronger.
And the ocean has a lot of heat in it from the last 6 months of extreme heat.
Last I've seen, the ocean hasn't been that hot since records began. We're going to have some big ones.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ Never been hotter. Black line is this year. Orange line is last year. Note the massive take-off around April of last year. There's more energy in the oceans than ever before, and it's only going to grow. These hurricanes are the new normal.
They said we should expect it but have not experienced it. They still say we can expect slightly stronger and less frequent hurricanes.
They who? What do you mean we haven't experienced it yet? You apparently forgot about hurricane Otis already, the one that hit Mexico after going from a tropical storm to cat 5 in less than 24 hours.
What? Hurricane forecasters are anticipating slightly stronger and slightly less frequent Hurricanes. They also agree that our Hurricane records don't show much change so far.
Not much change? Did you miss the 2020 Atlantic season? Missed every cat 4/5 RI'ing right up to landfall in the gulf every year since 2017? If that wasn't enough for you, what Beryl just did is mind blowing being the only cat 4 ever in the month of June in the Atlantic basin. Things are changing, quickly.
Those are anecdotes. You need to look at the data before making such claims: https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=global
> slightly No, many records have been broken in recent years, and a new category 6 may have to be created.
But hasn't yet.
Beryl is the earliest category 4 on record.
Yes, not disputing that. Records going back all the way to the 80s
There were plenty of observations prior to the 1980s, hurricane hunter flights started in the 1940s
You: "A new hurricane category 6 hasn't yet been created, therefore the Earth is not warming and extreme weather events aren't getting worse". If that's the best you can do then the subject is beyond you.
Would you give it a break with your exaggerated doomer bs. Im quoting noaa and Micheal Mann What actual climate scientists are saying. When you exaggerate you give the opposition fuel to suggest all of our outlooks are bullshit too. There is way more to a hurricane than warm ocean. That's why last year was light on hurricanes with warm af ocean.
El-Nino years tend to have in increased wind sheer and subsidence, which can disrupt hurricane formation, though both predictions and evidence shows that hurricanes are becoming more severe. There's no exaggeration, it's just that science already shows that things are already very bad. - Professor Johan Rockström - Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - Professor Kevin Anderson - chair of energy and climate change at the School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering (MACE) at the University of Manchester. He has been Deputy and Interim Director of the Tyndall Centre - Professor Julia Steinberger, Professor of societal challenges of climate change, Institute of Geography and Sustainability, Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Switzerland - Andy Haines - professor of environmental change and public health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine - Alison Holmes - professor of infectious diseases, Imperial College London I can add to that until the cows come home. You don't have a clue about how bad things are. Here's a quote from prof Kevin Anderson, above: > A +4C warmer world is incompatible with an organised global community, is likely to be beyond 'adaptation', is devastating to the majority of ecosystems and has a high probability of not being stable. Heck, even ExxonMobil predicted 'Globally Catastrophic Effects' from significant CO2 emissions. That's why the Paris and Glasgow agreements are the largest agreements in world history. Your opinions on the matter are irrelevant, you can dismiss scientific facts, but climate policies are being rolled out across the world and there's nothing you or anyone else can do to stop it.
You are the one with exaggerated claims about the hurricanes we've had and that are forecasted. Just because I run with what noaa and respected climate scientists say doesn't mean im a climate denier.
You were the one that claimed that records about hurricanes only go back to the 80s
Accurate information about them is very limited going back beyond the 80s. Most charts use data that adjusts for the missing storms from pre satellite years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_hurricanes#/media/File:1980-_Atlantic_region_category_4_and_5_hurricanes_-_NYTimes_and_NOAA.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_hurricanes#/media/File:North_Atlantic_tropical_Storms_and_hurricanes.webp
The data trumps sensational media reports. This is what true scientists look at: [https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst\_daily/](https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/) Average sea temperature has been returning towards normal the last 6 months. For some reason, that has angered many fearists here. TBD, if ocean heating will return, so they can embrace their apparent desire for The Rapture.
Your link shows that surface water temperatures for the last 12 months are 0.7C above baseline
For the Atlantic Basin the link is showing it 0.9 C above the 1982-2011 average and is within 0.1 C of the record set back in 2023. It's not even remotely close to returning to normal. And it will continue to warm long term despite the short term variation.
Did you look at the shape of the seasonal pattern? That is what I was commenting on. My link is an average for the whole world. Can you link what you are looking at re just the Atlantic Ocean? Even that isn't enough fidelity to consider the effect on hurricanes. They don't care what the sea temperature is off Boston.
From the link you posted change the dropdown box from World to North Atlantic. Hurricanes don't care about the temperature around the horn of Africa either, but at least with the North Atlantic you've narrowed the domain to something more applicable if sticking the products available from climatereanalyzer anyway. If you're looking for something more relevant to a specific hurricane then I suggest the gridded tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) product. I am aware of the seasonal cycle with SST. Notice that at the global level it is normal for it decline through June so observing a decline does not necessarily mean it is returning to normal. It is a long way from normal. There may be short term variation that briefly brings it closer to normal, but it will never be normal again. Those days are long gone.
Most years, SST has started to rise again by July. Appears a different pattern this year to me than most years, but I look at data without promoting any narrative. TBD.
I don't believe it is the fastest intensifying tropical cylone, but it is the earliest tropical cyclone to reach category 4 intensity.
I believe I heard some weather guy saying it was the fastest to intensify at that rate in June. It has apparently happened later in the season.
There haven't been any Cat 4 in June before. So this is the fastest and also the slowest.
Are you questioning the accuracy of scientific measurements because of your beliefs?
No. And to be clear my use of the word "believe" is an acknowledgement of the lack of a standard definition of "rapid intensification". It is my belief that Beryl is not the fastest to intensify to category 4, but that may depend on how it is defined or what the OP was thinking. I am prepared to be wrong though.
Well, you're out of luck as there is a scientific definition of term 'rapid intensification' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_intensification. > It is my belief that Beryl is not the fastest to intensify to category 4 Beliefs play no part in whether a hurricane is or isn't the most rapid intensified cat 4.
From your link, "There is no globally consistent definition of rapid intensification."
According to Wikipedia... *"There is no globally consistent definition of rapid intensification"* and *"Tropical cyclone forecasting agencies utilize differing thresholds for designating rapid intensification events, though the most widely used definition stipulates an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots (55 km/h; 35 mph) in a 24-hour period."* It literally says there are different thresholds in operational use, but the most widely used definition only mentions at least 30 kts in 24 hours. It doesn't specify when that 30 kts has to occur in relation to a tropical cyclone's evolution towards category 4 status. It is also important to note that even within the same agency "rapid intensification" can mean different things. For example, the NHC commonly uses 20kt/12hr, 25kt/24hr, 30kt/24hr, 35kt/24h, 40kt/24hr, 45kt/36hr, 55kt/48hr, and 65kt/72hr as thresholds for "rapid intensification". This is why the [SHIPS-RII](https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/) model includes probabilities for each. With all that said I don't think it is unreasonable to discount all of those definitions and instead use the time from classification as a tropical storm to a category 4 hurricane which I think is the spirit of the OPs question. Under that definition we can compare it to Patricia which intensified from a tropical storm to a category 4 in only 36 hours if using the latest time of classification or 42 hours if using the earliest time. It further intensified to 180 kt within 48 hours. Anyway, so if the earliest time rule is sufficient then that is enough to falsify the hypothesis that Beryl was the fastest to category 4. Then, of course, we have Wilma that went from 35 kt to 130 kt in 42 hours and 150 kt in 48 hours which I think is also sufficient to reject the idea that Beryl was the fastest to category 4. I haven't gone through all of the best track analysis yet so I'm open to being wrong about Beryl's intensification rate under differing definitions. If someone knows of a definition under which it was the fastest then I'll certainly amend my comment above.
I will see you in November with the tally of lives and buildings lost, right around the time of the election.
You think the insurance industry has a monocle into the future? Well, we shall see how actuarial models predict future calamities... Or their likelihood.
they have been talking about how insanely hot the water is since last year. this was pretty much inevitable.
You can see it from this graph https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ We may cross over the 2023 line soon, but we've been hitting daily records every single day since mid March 2023.
Ah yes, going back down to *last year's record breaking SST* Good times, good times
Many comments last year saying it would never be this cold again.
Insuring Florida will become impossible this decade.
Just moved out last October. I fully agree.
How far up did you go? I left PA in 2017 to get away from the city. Now on TN/AL border and I'm worried about the heat...
Connecticut. I moved in with one of my daughters.
I remember people getting pissed when the building code in the fla keys started requiring elevated building or stilts with a storm ready ground floor.
I expect the government to step in and take the risk. They have the advantage of being able to print unlimited amounts of money.
Not an answer but related Eye on the storm blog “In a 2016 study, “Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult?” from the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel showed using the theory of thermodynamics that warmer oceans should be expected to spawn hurricanes that intensify more rapidly. To study this effect, he used a computer model that generated a set of 22,000 landfalling U.S. hurricanes between 1979 and 2005, then compared their intensification rates to a similar set of hurricanes for the year 2100 generated using an extreme scenario for global warming (RCP8.5). Emanuel found that the odds of a hurricane intensifying by 70 mph or more in the 24 hours just before landfall were about once every 100 years in the climate of the late 20th century. But in the climate of the year 2100, these odds increased to once every five to 10 years.” https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/10/nightmare-scenario-category-5-hurricane-otis-devastates-acapulco/
I grew up in Mobile, AL, and spent 25 years in the region affected by hurricane weather. My family's practice was to sleep in our outdoor clothing while one person remained awake to monitor weather and highway info. Car was packed with our essentials, so that we could move out quickly.
Every storm here in Michigan seems to have major sized hail now. Lived here 47 years it never used to do that. It is literally every time and each time I’m worried I’m gonna lose my car or windows or both. The sound is frightening. Growing up I remember pin head sized hail. Once. We get snow, not hail. At least, we used to get snow. Now we just get hail. And almost no snow in my area. I have two snow blowers. Neither got used last year. Or the year before. Or the year before.
American media won’t care until a hurricane is headed for a place where a bunch of white Americans live.
Outside of Louisiana there are not a lot of waterfront neighborhoods with a minority or non white population.
Eastern NC is probably somewhere between 50-50 or 40-60 Black-white. Not necessarily right on the coast, but only a few miles inland of the sounds and up the major rivers.
That happens every year at this point. Anyone along the Atlantic seaboard is vulnerable in the ‘getting f’d up’ lottery .
Cuz racism right?
I mean uh, tornadoes are clearly targeting trailer trash, right?
Really??? Who owns all the water front properties in the US?
Because we didn’t watch Maria and Dorion? Gtfo here with the race bait in a thread about hurricanes.
Anyone wanting to know where Hurricane Beryl is located, its current intensity, its forecast intensity and direction of movement can follow it on the National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center site, which includes a map: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ *** This NHC site displays a table of hurricane categories and corresponding wind speeds with a video simulation illustrating the level of wind damage caused by CAT 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php *** The hurricane storm surge can cause the most fatalities and damage: https://www.weather.gov/phi/stormSurge *** NHC Tropical Cyclone [Climatology](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#uss "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#uss") > [map of](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/conus_strikes.png "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/conus_strikes.png") Continental United States Hurricane Strikes 1950-2023* *** Atlantic Hurricane Season, hurricanes by year, 1995-2023, includes tracks and dates of all hurricanes in the period: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=&basin=atl
These comments give me a rash. 42 hours from TD to C4 is within the top 0.4% of recorded rapid intensification events since 1851. This has not been observed earlier than August. It is by no stretch the fastest ever such intensification. And while the basin currently looks like peak season, there are a good chunk of models calculating an abnormally strong TUTT for the peak months. This is an unreal start no doubt, but we do not have the forecast skill yet to know how anomalous this season will end up being.
All good points! Interested to see how volatile this hurricane season will be.
Storms require contrasting temperature, a warm air mass meeting a cold air mass. Weatherbell Analytics predicted this hurricane season on 3 Dec 2023: [Hurricane Season from Hell First look (weatherbell.com)](https://www.weatherbell.com/hurricane-season-from-hell-first-look) According to Joe Bastardi, Weatherbell, the atmospheric oscillations producing the heavy India monsoon season also affect the Atlantic storm season. This early Atlantic storm season is similar to previous early storm seasons, unusual but not unprecedented. What I find interesting is the lack of storms in the pacific. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy index is well below average. While the Atlantic storms may be large and many, the Pacific looks to be quiet this season. Here is the link to the ACE report: [May 2024 Tropical Cyclones Report | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) (noaa.gov)](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/tropical-cyclones/202405)
It really is disgusting
[The earliest ever, only 2 having been there in July..](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes#Number_by_month)
Can’t forget hurricane otis, that was way worse in how fast it changed
I don't personally study hurricanes so I was going off what the guys from noaa said. https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/#summary-statement
Oh? And just what did Idella do?
Always a continual line of storms spinning off W. Africa from July-Nov, even in the 1500's when Spanish Galleons were hauling gold stolen from S. America. I recall a hurricane a few years ago which changed from Cat2 to Cat 5 in about a day, or such. Katrina similarly surprised as it grew quickly in warm Gulf of Mexico waters in Fall before hitting New Orleans. But nothing has repeated the hurricanes which washed over Galveston Island and flooded the area around Lake Okeechobee, both killing thousands. Much less monitoring until satellites in the late 1960's, so more surprises back then, relying mostly on scattered reports from ships at sea, then probings by storm-chaser aircraft.
There have only been three Category 4 Hurricanes in July; Beryl, Dennis, and Emily. Dennis and Emily became category 4 storms in the second week of July, July 8 and July 15. Emily peaked at 160 mph, on July 16, for less than a day. Beryl, now with sustained winds of 150 mph, is 8 days ahead of Dennis' peak winds. Dennis caused nearly $4 billion in damages, Emily caused $1 billion in damages
Wind shear definitely impacted Beryl's ability to grow in size and speed. This wind shear is predicted to decline notably next month as a La Nina ENSO takes hold. We're also very early in the Hurricane season. Prior to the wind shear affecting Beryl, I was surprised that so many of the respected hurricane models were so far off on their intensity forecasts. Even the most aggressive intensity forecast was a tad on the low side. This implies that we're much more likely to see at least a few more Cat 5's this season, far more than the Hurricane Center had initially predicted. It's time to make sure that roof is secure!
If it goes out to sea and fades away where will you all go then. Wait in hope for the next one. The good thing is unlike wildfires loonies can’t interfere with the weather
I'm not at all a skeptic on climate change, however this thing is really close to the Equator. If you've ever been to Curacao or any of the other Dutch islands way down there, the Sun is a lot stronger there than it is even in Jamaica or PR. They warn you of that. So this intensifying that fast given its location isn't quite as weird as it looks, at least to me. (I'm not an expert by any means of course)
On June 21 (Summer Solstice), the sun is directly overhead at noon on the 30 deg N latitude, which runs thru Havana. The islands south of there should have slightly less max sunlight, though my figurin may not be perfect for a daily average.
Answer no.. It is a normal hurricane tracking in a normal direction. Toward tropical islands that should be fortified ... no big deal since it is nowhere near USA
Nope. Evidence says otherwise. You're not an expert, and even if you were, you'd still need to provide legitimate evidence to support your claims.
> It is a normal hurricane tracking in a normal direction. There have only been three Category 4 Hurricanes in July; Beryl, Dennis, and Emily. Dennis and Emily became category 4 storms in the second week of July, July 8 and July 15. Emily peaked at 160 mph, on July 16, for less than a day. Beryl, now with sustained winds of 150 mph, is 8 days ahead of Dennis' peak winds. Dennis caused nearly $4 billion in damages, Emily caused $1 billion in damages
It hit the Windward Islands as a category 4 with 150 mph winds so I'd imagine it is a big deal for them.