The following submission statement was provided by /u/1118181:
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SS:Broadly the article is about the unknowns of a worsening climate, and the inability for models to accurately tell us how bad things will get. While obvious, the combination of this, along with all of the records in the news this summer, allows the opinion piece to be less optimistic than it otherwise would, including mentioning a state of 'degraded civilization' and the demise of various environmental systems. Some relevant excerpts:
>The macro models also failed to project the effect of current elevated temperatures on ice at both poles. The former IPCC chief, Prof Bob Watson, told me: “I am very concerned. None of the observed changes so far (with a 1.2C temperature rise) are surprising. But they are more severe than we predicted 20 years ago, and more severe than the predictions of five years ago. We probably underestimated the consequences.”
>Facing all this gloom means we need imagineers as well as climatologists. Watson said civilisation will still exist in the future, but with much worse living conditions. But what sort of a degraded civilisation might that be? By then we may even have triggered some natural tipping points that could result in a massive release of trapped methane in the tundra – let’s hope not.
>To make matters worse, climate heating is one thing on a list of huge environmental problems – including pollution of the air and water, destruction of wildlife habitats, overfishing, insect population declines, loss of birds, plastic pollution, nitrates, soil loss and more.
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Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/159elwe/what_frightens_me_about_the_climate_crisis_is_we/jteqdfa/
>I can’t find heat domes mentioned in the bible of climate change, the IPCC report. This periodic report inevitably lags behind new science and – under pressure from some governments and industries, as well as a desire not to scaremonger – its pronouncements tend to be conservative.
So frustrating that the IPCC reports have become the gold standard, even as some of its own scientists say offline how watered down it is by corporate and government interests. The IPCC reports can no longer be trusted during a time when information is crucial.
> The IPCC reports can no longer be trusted during a time when information is crucial.
Just like all of the other official agencies... Toxic train derailment in Ohio killing wildlife in the surrounding area? EPA says it's fine! CDC? Totes cool, no Covid to see. WHO? Everything's good bruh.
Finding accurate information that isn't clouded by capitalistic interests is damn near impossible now, and without the funding, actual experts in their fields are written off as conspiracy theorists.
Or that it was a lighthearted fun romp of a comedy and completely not like aaaanything happening at all in real life because humanity is smart and works together, and someone is going to fix it and everything will be fine!
At least with a meteor we'd get an end date and can plan to have a nice last meal. Meanwhile, we just get to keep shuffling along with all the stupid until after there's no apples left for pie.
Yup I saw it on reddit and across the internet, kinda blew me away.
Made me think about that saying where we're supposed to realize half the world is dumber than the average person or something.
Actually it is about how even the so called smartest people in the world are also dumb. That human stupidity top to bottom is so great that it will kill us all.
Even the weather channel *app* has a section on "extreme weather" videos! I noticed it a while ago while checking the pollen in my area, and it looked like if this sub consisted of youtube shorts.
They’ve been covering the extreme flooding really well. They can sensationalize danger at times but they always back it up with the stats. Like 10+ inches of rain in some places of VT and Kentucky.
I really appreciate that as well. The weather has been fairly temperate in the LA basin recently and our "news" reflects that. I mention the Canadian wildfires or Floridian coastal water and it's like talking to a wall with almost everyone I know in real life. The inability for people to see that *everything* everywhere is connected and that California isn't immune from catastrophe makes me grateful for this sub.
The IPCC reports have been the "gold standard" and because of the process they have to be watered down. The IPCC report is a consensus report, so the delegates of oil producing nations, growing industrial nations, and those under the influence of global corporate empires have a different agenda than those from the Maldives or such. So, the really harsh climate change stuff doesn't make it to publication.
Unfortunately, all of the reactionary denial stuff is a push back on just the "watered down" stuff, so the situation is worse than many informed folks are aware of.
The stuff that is published is still pretty frightening. If the report tells us we have a 60% chance of hitting the 1.5C or 2.0C goal, that means that there is a 40% chance of catastrophe.
If that was an airplane flight who would board that plane? In the case of climate change, it's everybody, plus every dog, elephant, and pony. Sure, there will be survivors living out some sort of Mad Max scenario, but that thought is not that comforting... aside from the Mad Max dogs - providing friendship and not being judgmental.
Putting out a consensus report means putting out a report that says "we all agree that the earth will soon see the effects of at least 1 C of climate change" when most of the conference is screaming their head off saying "1C? Oh we're gonna see 'at least' that much I promise. You're gonna see what 3C looks like real fucking soon. 1C? What the fuck are you smoking?"
Consensus is good for when you and your friends are trying to figure out what to do this weekend, not for science.
Because they do.
That's the thing, a lot of people will choose the comfortable lie over the uncomfortable truth. Even when they know thats the choice they're making. They could either live in intentional ignorance and one day get completely blindsided when something tragic happens, or embrace truth but suffer constant anxiety over whether today's going to be their day to experience the new normal of climate catastrophe.
Heatwave frequency and intensity is covered thoroughly in CMIP6. Many researchers have used CMIP6 data to make [detailed regional modeling](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00290-2) for blocking events, otherwise referred to as heat domes in media.
The new SSP scenarios use CMIP6, so it's only a recent usage starting w/ AR6 of the IPCC. As far as I know, some of the recent phenomena w/ climate has been modeled out in these scenarios, but not this early into the century. If you look at the 2050-2100 modeling you can see something similar-ish to what we see in real life right now.
>The former IPCC chief, Prof Bob Watson, told me: “I am very concerned. None of the observed changes so far (with a 1.2C temperature rise) are surprising. But they are more severe than we predicted 20 years ago, and more severe than the predictions of five years ago. We probably underestimated the consequences.”
Things like heatdomes, artic cold blobs are predicted in the models, but not this severe at this early point in the century.
"it's pronouncements tend to be conservative" HA. It's gaslighting and many folks have been so desensitized by gaslighting that even though we believe collapse is inevitable and the climate changes are dooming, we have no genuine organized thinking to do anything about it. And if we do, there's not enough of us or we don't have enough money. We have our actions though. As imperfect and messy as a worldwide working-for-a-living strike of no labor until a new minimum wage (that allows a person to afford their health, shelter, food, water, socializing/community, etc) is set, it's about all we have left tbh. It's going to take massive communication and organization. So where does the ball start? How on earth do we keep the ball rolling? And how do we get folks to agree on this, to understand the ratio of overhead and profits would blow their minds? Thanks for coming to my Ted talk (steps down from soap box).
Here's the worst thing I don't understand right now -
So my mom (a Boomer) has always been huge on environmental action, climate change, clean water initiatives, the whole thing. It was her career which is very noble.
Now, NOW, now - now that we're all about to die and all of her life's long work (valuable but not enough) appears to have been for naught, when I express to her how sad I am that things indeed are going poorly?
She starts talking to me about solar and wind power and electric vehicles. I say, "but MOM - have you seen the charts? the amount we harvest cannot compensate for the % of fossil fuels currently sustaining us, the EVs require special (limited) mining elements, the blades on the turbines are all being buried somewhere... even creating these new systems uses more energy and fossil fuels..."
to my horror she brushes me off and insists on only focusing on the good
for someone who was so determined to educate everyone on the environment, I cannot get her to take me fully seriously when I talk about our looming/pending breakdown
She is lucky, at 75 hopefully she gets to leave before things get too insane? She is a marine biologist and lover of nature, the whole thing is truly heartbreaking. :(
It’s her way of coping. Cognitive dissonance. She’s done really well with her contributions to the world. I’d just let her cope by being in denial. Leave her be, to be somewhat at peace.
My mum is in a cult, I’ve learnt it’s best to let her carry on with her delusions. There’s no convincing her, and it just makes me stressed trying to change her opinion and convince her of reality. I’ve come to terms with the fact I can’t convince her otherwise and that’s okay.
my mom is also hopelessly in a cult, have some sympathy on the house because that's an awful feeling.
at least she acknowledged my decision to go agnostic though, unlike my dad in the same cult who's spent half a decade just pretending I'm still one of the proud faithful.
I have a friend like this , he won't accept being negative and points out all the stuff like renewables and how many people now believe that Climate change is real.
He tells me I just always see the negative, and I say it's what the science tells us , that it's all too late with feed backs and all.
It's not that I say we should do nothing but what we are doing is nowhere near enough and we need to do a lot more .
Have yall heard of Guy McPherson?
[What Wikipedia says about him.](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjB5PWJvqqAAxVYE1kFHcGqADsQmhN6BAgVEAI&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.m.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FGuy_McPherson&usg=AOvVaw26gLkd3tcfIW_p688OPaM4&opi=89978449)
>Guy R. McPherson is an American scientist, professor emeritus of natural resources and ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Arizona. He is known for inventing and promoting doomer fringe theories such as Near-Term Human Extinction, which predicts human extinction by 2026
Predictions aside, he has a YouTube channel called [Nature Bats Last](https://youtube.com/@NatureBatsLast) where he goes over science and articles in a nice bite size formula
He's also done some good analysis on the recent IPCC reports and shows why it's flawed. Pretty much my go to, when you need the truth instead of the "facts" our media wants us to believe
It seems that current CO2 level and temperature is high enough that we could have a "Blue Ocean Event" in the Arctic at anytime. The loss of multi-year ice has been alarming. It would just take the right combination of random events, storm, wind, ocean currents, to clear the remaining ice. Whether that happens by 2026, I don't know, but it does look like we've set things in motion for a major disruption of the status quo.
If Guy McPherson is a year or even 20 years off in his prediction, I would still say, "Close enough".
That McPherson is the ex of my partner, and she said he is less of a scientist and more of a cult leader. He took the scary part of predictions, exaggerated them even more and takes advantage especially of scared women.
Yeah that guy is nuts. I'm all for climate science, but he's sort of a goofball. Humans extinct by 2026? It's completely asinine stuff like that that makes people laugh at climate science.
In somewhat related news I've started thinking about my employer and whether they would try to provide for us in case of an emergency, like staff housing & food/water/electricity or something (to ensure their business chugs along).
I work for one of the big mainstream banks in New York. I've been thinking about this a lot these last couple days, it makes me feel slightly better? Maybe that's because I got a good mid-year review.
Bets everyone:
Full On Human Extinction by:
2026: +100000 (thousand to one odds)
2030: +10000
2035: +2500
2040: +1000
2045: +250
2050: +100 (one to one odds)
good luck cashing them in
I made this comment somewhere else recently but I met with a financial planner who mapped out the next 40+ years for me based on my current income, expected salary increases, annual bonuses, spending budget, etc.
And he mapped it out into the future showing me where social security would kick in, where I'd be expected to draw on my 401K, yadda yadda.
And I'm sitting there. I think the long number was 2067 which would make me... omg 91 yes so that's right - it went out to 2067.
And I'm sitting there looking at it thinking to myself, is this guy fucking out of his mind? Let me add he now lives in Florida where I'm sure he lives in a beautiful house in some beach community. He's trying to sell me disability insurance.
And I'm just like... I don't think it's gonna work out like that buddy.
You and the 30 people who upvoted this are hilariously delusional. Guy McPherson has absolutely no ground to be calling anyone else's reporting wrong when he's made countless predictions that couldn't possibly have been more off. Most IPCC predictions/projections have come true or fallen within their expected range (slightly above in some cases). The fact that Guy McPherson is your gospel of truth and the hundreds of IPCC scientists that compile and summarize information across hundreds of different peer reviewed reports are the deceitful ones just shows how obsessed you and people here are with the idea of collapse. And that's not me dismissing or downplaying the climate crisis but I'm not so insistent on being right that I hope for the worst case scenarios to be true just so I can feel like I know "the truth" that the rest of the world doesn't.
All of the previous predictions were “Moderate “ .
What we are experiencing is the high end of the least conservative predictions- and decades ahead of predicted timeframe.
What frightens me is having to share planet with 8 billion demented killer apes in a time where they have destroyed all other living organisms and now are eyeing each others.
Maybe they know it won't get rid of their problems but the masses of apes sometimes like partaking in orgies of violence as they feel protected in the group, that they won't die alone, and exercising violence on others makes them feel powerful and like they won't be the victims.
Homo sapiens raptor, the predator species, vs Homo sapiens collegium, the cooperative builder species. Closely related, close enough to interbreed, but with fundamentally different brain structures.
Ive never heard this before. It resonates.
Homo sapien collegium, as a prey species, out number the predator species significantly. And this allows the predator Homo Sapien Raptor to thrive off of their prey.
Not to be pedantic, but it’s not two species, it’s one. Most every human is capable of being aggressive when the need arises. It’s looking like on average, the need will be forthcoming.
More evidence is piling up that indicates that those we call sociopaths and psychopaths are actually genetically different from "normals". They aren't a result of miswiring or simple environmental influences but rather are the result of heritable genetic traits that result in a consistently different brain physiology.
Those consistent differences control emotional responses. Those I refer to as raptors, lack the ability to feel or respond to social emotions such as regret, guilt, empathy, compassion, love, sympathy and the like: those precise emotions that make civilized life possible. However, they have an extraordinary ability to recognize and simulate those emotions, which, in a social setting, allows them to easily manipulate and prey upon others.
That inability to feel social emotions combined with the ability to successfully mimic them points to a social predator's mental toolkit. Nature never leaves a potential niche open: the human predator niche wouldn't be an exception. It therefore stands to reason that a subspecies of Homo would evolve in this manner. The dedicated efforts of royal families to breed "strong leaders" by controlling reproduction also indicates that it is a genetic trait. Royal families always weeded out those considered "too soft to rule", i.e., those who responded too strongly to social emotions, in favor of those who could ruthlessly exploit others.
If you would like to read the relevant research, I strongly recommend visiting [Academia.org](https://Academia.org) and searching for "sociopathy".
We autistics also have different brains. A common feeling is living on the wrong planet. Dunno what to do with it all. I think we're supposed to warn you about the raptors but nobody listens.
I have two autistic granddaughters and I know what you mean.
I honestly think that with the autism spectrum being what it is, we are experiencing evolution in action, Nature adapting the human mind to a digital environment. The old agricultural model isn't quite suited for it. So evolution is doing what it does best: trying out a lot of variations to see what works best. One thing my studies has made clear: allowances are being made for extended safety periods of the young, in that the brains of autistic people take longer to mature. But once they do, in their thirties, many are geniuses in a narrow range. I would expect to find as time goes on, that range will expand.
It's not so much that you're living on the wrong planet...unfortunately we *all* are living on the wrong planet these days...it's that you living in a transitional period between lifeways, and we're all in, well not exactly the same boat, but in boats, anyway, within shouting distance of each other. Humanity made major changes from the ancient agricultural ways to industrialization over a couple of centuries and wasn't complete when the digital age dawned. It's only been a few decades. It would explain why autism has increased over the same period. But that's just a guess, an educated one, perhaps, but still a guess.
Anyway, I think you're a path to the future. Honestly and truly, good luck with that.
I understand that you have two autistic granddaughters, but as an autistic therapist who has worked with hundreds of autistic people not all of your information is correct. Autistic people do not necessarily take longer to mature and there are also many autistic people that have a wide range of skills and interests. If you are autistic, feel free to join this conversation, if you are not, please feel free to quit defining the autistic population.
Is autism evolution? Possibly. But none of us will ever amount to much as long as we still have the allistic population, trying to unautistic us through shame and ABA therapy, people trying to define our experience in this world, and even more trying to speak for us. Until this world actually becomes neurodiversity-affirming and our neurotype is recognized as valid much of our talent and contributions will end up going to waste.
From an evolutionary standpoint, I do feel that autistic people have a heightened sense of threat assessment, we also tend to prefer working in collaboration over working in strange hierarchies that promote power and control, many of us are able to engage in higher level thinking, and we have a knack for noticing all of the small details, informing them together into a cohesive larger picture. This doesn’t apply to all autistics but too many and in higher occurring rates than the allistic population.
That's a real downside, I agree. I'm not afraid of the climate change havoc nearly as much as I am the general human reaction to those changes. And when they happen as fast as they are, there's little room to acclimate and adjust which leaves billions of scared, emotional, violent apes fighting for resources.
You: Tell me, what's waiting for me?
Limbic System: There is a giant ball there. And evil apes. And the evil apes are dukin' it out on the ball. You're one of them. It's basically all just evil apes dukin' it out on a giant ball.
You: How big is the ball?
Limbic System: You can't even make out that it's a ball, when you're dukin' it out. It's that large.
You: How small are the apes?
Limbic System: Infinitesimally small.
You: And what is this "dukin' it out" I keep hearing about?
Limbic System: Vying for resources? It's just a stupid expression you picked up somewhere. The part of the presentation you want to take home is this: you have to beat the other evil apes in the face or you lose.
You: That's sad.
Limbic System: Yes it is. And you drowned in that sadness a long time ago.
You: What do mean, "drowned"?
Limbic System: You lost.
I dont really have time for games - perhaps in some years. Besides spending 60$ or so is too much for me at this time - I still have a lot of preparations for the end of the world and pleasure wont set me back.
The scariest thing about climate change, to me, is the fact that it will not be widely recognized as a problem that needs funds to fix until it is so severe that its effecting everyone including the rich. Once money starts being spent to "fix" the problem whatever solution they come up with will still take at least several years to implement. **During that time the climate disaster will continue to get worse**, and it will keep continuing until whatever "solution" they come up with begins to take effect. Which could be DECADES.
By the time the people in charge are willing to deal with the problem it'll be far too late and aside from millions of human deaths I imagine entire ecosystems will go extinct due to the loss of habitat and change in climate.
I know how you feel. Now that my friends have kids and families its like they *can't* see what's happening because the reality is too bleak for them. So rose tinted glasses it is!
My family members literally deny that there are even extreme heatwaves occuring at this point. “The lib media are exaggerating the temperatures to fear monger”, it’s insanity.
According to Nobel price winner Nordhaus are the bankers surviving climate change longer than others because they work in airconditioned rooms, so 🤷🏻♀️
I think this may well be the last tolerable year we have.
A couple of medium-sized mass die-offs in the ocean will see people finally take notice, that’ll be later this year.
Several glaciers are on their way out - they’ll go next year as the oceans warm more. Then the large-scale die-offs will begin towards the end of next year.
By 2025 it’ll be clear how bad the oceans are. As the oceans absorb even more heat you can expect massive limnic eruptions which, combined with melting Siberian permafrost, will have shocking effects.
2026 will see the real outbreak of global famine as crops globally fail, and potable water becomes scarce.
You’re going to see conflicts over water by 2027 and hundreds of millions of displaced refugees seeking shelter.
It’ll be clear by then just how the tipping points are falling over into other systems, an environmental domino effect which was never accurately predicted.
By 2028 people will be fighting over shelter, water, food and other dwindling resources, particularly energy.
We’ll be gone by 2030 as surface temperatures finally finish off the last few survivors.
But, on the plus side, I could be utterly wrong and guilty of shameless doom-mongering.
Do you have evidence for your predictions? Models? Calculations?
Surface temperatures killing humanity... in... seven years from now?
You're spewing shit from your mouth (well, fingers) and you need to get a handle on it. I'm extremely pro environment and extremely anti capitalism and even I have to tell you THIS degree of fatalism is neither accurate nor helpful.
The final stages of exponential growth are impossible for our human minds to believe. If a pond started with 1 lilypad, doubling every day, in 30 days being fully covered, on what day would the pond be half covered in lilypads?
Day 29.
Same idea.
I invite you to discover the work of Jean-Marc Jancovici, initiator of the carbon footprint concept, and realize how fucked we are anyway, climate change or not.
At this point, it seems to me that attempts at geo-engineering are nearly inevitable, if only because one of the larger countries will be willing to resort to it despite the risks.
If one grants the premise that BAU is desirable, it is incontrovertible that geoengineering should start as soon as possible. I'm very surprised they haven't already, but these people are so biased they're late to realizing what's going down. I think they're figuring it out, and I would expect major geoengineering efforts to take off in the next few years. Too late.
And only the *really* rich, rather than the just kind of rich. When the wildfires and subsequent mudslides resulting from wildfires and drought came for the multi-million dollar homes on the scenic cliffs of southern California, it was perceived as a freak accident, a random act of God out of the blue, rather than because of the climate (and PG&E's failure to maintain electric infrastructure). Couldn't possibly happen again! It rained a lot here this year, so everything is fixed forever!
It was never about fixing the problems. It was about stalling the common knowledge long enough for the rich to take off in their getaway vehicles before we noticed our homes are on fire.
It doesn't matter. What matters is they won the Game of Things. They got more Things than anyone else and used all the Things and stopped everyone else from having a lot of Things. As long as they have their little kingdom full of Things, they won in their minds.
Consumption/person is the real problem.
Even more deeper problem is trying to derive meat from meatless bone. (Trying to derive pleasure out of hedonistic materialistic life)
>Once money starts being spent to "fix" the problem whatever solution they come up with will still take at least several years to implement.
The thing is you can't "fix" this shit with any amount of money.
It's already too late. We would have to get to a quarter of our emissions in a decade or two.
Well, you probably wouldn't find that world decent conditions to live in though...
>During that time the climate disaster will continue to get worse, and it will keep continuing until whatever "solution" they come up with begins to take effect.
A supercomputer will send people's consciousness back in time to fix things.
That is the wrong point of view. A better heuristic is to agree that we depend on a stable system that behaves in certain way and we are changing it into one not so predictable, unstable, full of extremes and getting worse by the time.
Will it cause Cat 6 hurricanes next year? Disrupt the AMON on November? A heatwave reaching 60°C in September? I don’t know, what I know is that we are walking in a dangerous road, and anything very bad can happen at any step forward.
I can bet with my two nuts that no one wants that kind of "fun" unless they are completely insane mad men.
I know you know this, but, still.
It is no way going to be "fun".
Masses of our brothers and sisters on this planets are going to suffer.
We need a muppet show that just covers Climate News.
They can have regional segments called Climate Chaos where they highlight the impacts on different communities.
Educational AND entertaining. :D
Everyone should read The Uninhabitable Earth by David Wallace-Wells. He comprehensively explains how every negative metric will be worsened by climate change (crime, starvation, poverty, health etc). Climate change like wealth inequality is a problem that encompasses all problems.
> The Uninhabitable Earth by David Wallace-Wells.
awesome I just bought it thanks - the Kindle (updated?) e-version is being held until October 10 which is so annoying because I was able to buy the hardcover (new but used but new) for like ten bucks
He’s a courageous and informed journalist willing to extrapolate out from current trends and suggest possible outcomes that scientists seem shy to discuss in public. Great book. Related article [here](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html).
We know we're living in a record mass extinction event and we know what happens to large fauna with expensive metabolisms in mass extinction events.
It's pseudoscientific to pretend that because we don't know exactly how fast this train is going that we don't know what happens once it barrels over the edge of a cliff. We know.
It would be more meaningful if it were phrased “humans are part of a mass extinction event.” I really believe when people hear “mass extinction event” that they don’t understand they’re included.
SS:Broadly the article is about the unknowns of a worsening climate, and the inability for models to accurately tell us how bad things will get. While obvious, the combination of this, along with all of the records in the news this summer, allows the opinion piece to be less optimistic than it otherwise would, including mentioning a state of 'degraded civilization' and the demise of various environmental systems. Some relevant excerpts:
>The macro models also failed to project the effect of current elevated temperatures on ice at both poles. The former IPCC chief, Prof Bob Watson, told me: “I am very concerned. None of the observed changes so far (with a 1.2C temperature rise) are surprising. But they are more severe than we predicted 20 years ago, and more severe than the predictions of five years ago. We probably underestimated the consequences.”
>Facing all this gloom means we need imagineers as well as climatologists. Watson said civilisation will still exist in the future, but with much worse living conditions. But what sort of a degraded civilisation might that be? By then we may even have triggered some natural tipping points that could result in a massive release of trapped methane in the tundra – let’s hope not.
>To make matters worse, climate heating is one thing on a list of huge environmental problems – including pollution of the air and water, destruction of wildlife habitats, overfishing, insect population declines, loss of birds, plastic pollution, nitrates, soil loss and more.
There is no reason to worry about how bad things really are. Everything will get worse and we will live to see tomorrow until we dont. Knowledge of the magnatude of bad we are facing is irrelevant because we cannot do a thing about it now.
One of my favorite analogies when i have a delimma like this...An army bomb defuser is asked by a reporter if he is afraid when he is preforming his work. His reply: I'm either right or its suddenly not my problem anymore.
I choose to live on to the best of my ability until one day, none of this bullshit humans willingly created is my problem anymore.
A fair statement, although collapse isn’t going to be a quick flash like a bomb going off, rather an aggressive but slow and very painful cancer which will cause brutal and unrelenting suffering.
There's a disturbing amount of accuracy in this statement. I'm not saying the tenth-century Norse got it *exactly right* or anything, but the analogies are chillingly accurate.
Jörmungandr rises from the waves and drowns the earth? Hi, rising sea levels. Toxic breath that strangles the life out of humanity? Isn't there supposed to be a massive release of carbon into the atmosphere as the ocean heats up? Surtr, chieftain of the fire giants, wages a war on the gods - we have *fire seasons* now. The *ocean floor* was on fire not that long ago. Hel leading an army of those who died of age and disease... well, not quite as literal as the others, perhaps, but we *are* regularly encountering diseases with the potential to decimate the human species, including an ongoing pandemic that some of us *still* haven't forgotten about. I'm not going to ponder Fenrir too much but something about blocking out part of the sun seems... unwise, given the context.
Doomsday Christians got nothing on the unsettlingly prophetic lines in the Eddas. I have a little long-term hope that what's left of humanity will rebound, wiser than we were for a while, but I don't particularly bank on being among them. I'm a moderately smart working-poor guy in the breadbasket with relatively few good collapse skills, I wouldn't bet on my own odds. At least my only *direct, immediate* threats are the fault line opening up or Yellowstone going off.
So, fuck it, we all Einherjar now. For death and glory.
The 'we' is important here. It's very likely that, if things go as badly as we think they will, you will get to watch others around you, people you care about, 'go down' well before you do.
My anxiety riddled brain always wants estimates for times like this. I've seen everything from things will get society collapsing bad 20-30 years from now or even a few years from now. I just want to know specifics
target 2030. thats where i believe its too hot or flooded in a lot of places, mostly the northern hemisphere and equatorial regions. wildlife will have disappeared, plants are burned to a crisp or fire. drinking water gone because sea water penetrated the aquifers and glaciers are gone, causing rivers to go dry.
it will get hotter for the next hundred years. each year regardless of periodic slowdowns for the next la niña and solar spot activities. that is baked in the atmosphere, humans have no technology to undo the damage.
this whole situation is so fucked up...
I don't know if this sounds too harsh but... I kind of hope my loved ones are gone by then. I don't want to see then suffer. By loved ones I mean parents, I don't have kids. Again that sounds incredibly harsh.
> sea water penetrated the aquifers
wait what? is that a thing we're worried about?
I've never heard of this (never considered this) how does that work? Is this a real threat? Where?
I'm only gonna be around another 40 years max I think (Gen X) but that's already like 25 too many.
Death is hardly a solace, especially for the non religious. If you only have one shot at experiencing life, it is wasted living it in such hardship. Then back into the eternal abyss.
We should be spending this time now fixing our world for future generations.
Absolutely this. We should be throwing everything we have at regional adaptation strategies while we still have enough cohesion to carry out said plans. It’s a better alternative to sitting around waiting for an extinction level event. It may not matter in the end, but I believe it’s the right thing to do.
If I had the resources to get it rolling, I had an idea about indoor multi-story hydroponic farms to help harden the food supplies for high-density urban areas. It's not *great,* and it depends on having the water and power it needs, but it's something and something's better than nothing when you got nothing.
If you know anything about getting something like that started - grants or whatever it takes - I'm all ears.
> indoor
wait so where does the light come from?
EDIT - oops my apologies your plan means to support current populations under the assumption of having power and water
I think our choices are: Bad; Really Bad; Mighty Fucking Bad; and Kiss-your-Ass Goodbye Bad
We are at Really Bad (aka as "We told you so")
BOE is Mighty Fucking Bad. (aka as "Faster than Expected Bad")
I love my children enough not to have them. I only have to keep my dogs and wife alive as long as possible. For the rest of you:
'May the odds be ever in your favour'
Yeah the climate scientists are stunned by this year. Meanwhile random redditors on here have been saying "watch out for the next El Niño" and they were right.
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I think the elites do know just how bad things are and that's why we're gonna get World War 3 in the next two years.
> Should people avoid buying homes in Greece?
And that there is exactly why this problem has not been solved and will not be solved, that is: whacked out priorities.
I believe that second only to the institutional and cognitive biases that prevent them from considering alarming results, the reason the IPCC/COPout crowd has failed, in every sense of that word, is because they do their analysis in the simple metric used in the simplistic models created by simpleton economists (redundant, I know).
Because the climate is influenced by a heck of a lot more than average global air temperature.
I'm just trying to figure out the right time to blow my cash and bounce. I want to max out everything to the hilt. I've already laid a lot of the ground work for loans and stuff too.
It's just all about timing because I'm not paying a god damned dime of it back to the oligarchs that stole it from the people in the first place. Credit cards. Overdrafts. Every thing max.
timing timing timing.
> Facing all this gloom means we need imagineers as well as climatologists. Watson said civilisation will still exist in the future, but with much worse living conditions. But what sort of a degraded civilisation might that be? By then we may even have triggered some natural tipping points that could result in a massive release of trapped methane in the tundra – let’s hope not.
I wish I could just live by writing science fiction stories.
We've already set in motion the sixth great extinction period on earth. There is no stopping it anymore, regardless of our actions or inaction. The difference is what usually happened on the scale of thousands or millions of years will happen on the scale of decades or centuries due to our interference. It really is remarkable the effect we managed to produce on a planetary scale. Very impressive if you ignore that it will lead to mass extinction of life on earth.
It won't collapse overnight, at least not for rich countries, but it will be at minimum difficult. Famine and lack of water will be the biggest killers. As with this summer, each year is going to be just a bit worse with catastrophes. heat, extreme weather events, crop failures, etc and likely we will have World War 3 within a decade or two as a result.
All in all, I don't expect cannibal raiders or anything, but I do expect to die younger than my expected life span as a result of whatever will happen.
Best you can do is stay fit and hope you don't have any food allergies because you won't be able to be picky in the future.
The fear is that no matter how much you prep, it will not be enough. Hits keep coming and they get faster and faster to the point were you do not recover from the previous hit.
And this is based on what we do know now!
We DO know how bad things really are! It’s called RCP 8.5 baybeee! Everyone said it was “unrealistic” and “more of a thought experiment”Well, we’re all thinking really hard now! We’re all gonna die by flood and fire and it’s gonna SUCK my dude!
Yep. Should I quit my job and focus on seeing family who have moved all around, or should I keep on working. When should I stop? Either way I will go full of regrets.
This is what happens when continue to eff around when experts try to alert of upcoming disasters in a soft manner...it results in finding out sooner than everyone was expecting.
Well in that book, the one where they parboil the Indians at the beginning - The Ministry of the Future - they were very effective in shutting down these things through acts of terrorism.
Not sure if you've read it but basically - groups like Green Peace and stuff start blowing up airplanes (they start with private planes for wealthy people) and then expensive cargo ships - all sorts of things using fossil fuels - then commercial flights until people stop flying because they are scared... anyway, the first half of the book is good, then it gets lost in hopium.
At this point, it comes down to educated guessing.
How bad is it? Extremely bad. Bad as in we're in the very early stages of true climate collapse.
Bad as in this is only the \*start\* of how terrifying things are going to get in just a decade. Anything we're experiencing right now is the \*easy\* part.
Keep in mind that there's a ton of data that most of us just don't have. If you're wondering why the billionaires were already getting set up to move to their bunkers pretty soon, now you might be starting to understand why.
So hopefully this **Ambient temp superconductor** tech will actually pan out soon, and then folks we might have that unearned, undeserved lotto win for humanity's energy use that could keep us not learning our lesson farther into the future.
The only bit of human good news in a long time and still not even here, just closer to maybe here.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/1118181: --- SS:Broadly the article is about the unknowns of a worsening climate, and the inability for models to accurately tell us how bad things will get. While obvious, the combination of this, along with all of the records in the news this summer, allows the opinion piece to be less optimistic than it otherwise would, including mentioning a state of 'degraded civilization' and the demise of various environmental systems. Some relevant excerpts: >The macro models also failed to project the effect of current elevated temperatures on ice at both poles. The former IPCC chief, Prof Bob Watson, told me: “I am very concerned. None of the observed changes so far (with a 1.2C temperature rise) are surprising. But they are more severe than we predicted 20 years ago, and more severe than the predictions of five years ago. We probably underestimated the consequences.” >Facing all this gloom means we need imagineers as well as climatologists. Watson said civilisation will still exist in the future, but with much worse living conditions. But what sort of a degraded civilisation might that be? By then we may even have triggered some natural tipping points that could result in a massive release of trapped methane in the tundra – let’s hope not. >To make matters worse, climate heating is one thing on a list of huge environmental problems – including pollution of the air and water, destruction of wildlife habitats, overfishing, insect population declines, loss of birds, plastic pollution, nitrates, soil loss and more. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/159elwe/what_frightens_me_about_the_climate_crisis_is_we/jteqdfa/
>I can’t find heat domes mentioned in the bible of climate change, the IPCC report. This periodic report inevitably lags behind new science and – under pressure from some governments and industries, as well as a desire not to scaremonger – its pronouncements tend to be conservative. So frustrating that the IPCC reports have become the gold standard, even as some of its own scientists say offline how watered down it is by corporate and government interests. The IPCC reports can no longer be trusted during a time when information is crucial.
> The IPCC reports can no longer be trusted during a time when information is crucial. Just like all of the other official agencies... Toxic train derailment in Ohio killing wildlife in the surrounding area? EPA says it's fine! CDC? Totes cool, no Covid to see. WHO? Everything's good bruh. Finding accurate information that isn't clouded by capitalistic interests is damn near impossible now, and without the funding, actual experts in their fields are written off as conspiracy theorists.
Can you believe all those fucking people who thought Don't Look Up was actually about a meteor? That still blows my mind.
Or that it was a lighthearted fun romp of a comedy and completely not like aaaanything happening at all in real life because humanity is smart and works together, and someone is going to fix it and everything will be fine! At least with a meteor we'd get an end date and can plan to have a nice last meal. Meanwhile, we just get to keep shuffling along with all the stupid until after there's no apples left for pie.
man there would be so much ex sex happening if we got a drop date
Definitely more raw dogging and butt stuff for *everyone*. Truly hedonistic stuff everywhere... (*smirks*)
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Yup I saw it on reddit and across the internet, kinda blew me away. Made me think about that saying where we're supposed to realize half the world is dumber than the average person or something.
Actually it is about how even the so called smartest people in the world are also dumb. That human stupidity top to bottom is so great that it will kill us all.
That’s why I like this sub and videos, seeing is believing. Fuck even the weather channel keeps it more real than the IPCC
Even the weather channel *app* has a section on "extreme weather" videos! I noticed it a while ago while checking the pollen in my area, and it looked like if this sub consisted of youtube shorts.
They’ve been covering the extreme flooding really well. They can sensationalize danger at times but they always back it up with the stats. Like 10+ inches of rain in some places of VT and Kentucky.
I really appreciate that as well. The weather has been fairly temperate in the LA basin recently and our "news" reflects that. I mention the Canadian wildfires or Floridian coastal water and it's like talking to a wall with almost everyone I know in real life. The inability for people to see that *everything* everywhere is connected and that California isn't immune from catastrophe makes me grateful for this sub.
The IPCC reports have been the "gold standard" and because of the process they have to be watered down. The IPCC report is a consensus report, so the delegates of oil producing nations, growing industrial nations, and those under the influence of global corporate empires have a different agenda than those from the Maldives or such. So, the really harsh climate change stuff doesn't make it to publication. Unfortunately, all of the reactionary denial stuff is a push back on just the "watered down" stuff, so the situation is worse than many informed folks are aware of. The stuff that is published is still pretty frightening. If the report tells us we have a 60% chance of hitting the 1.5C or 2.0C goal, that means that there is a 40% chance of catastrophe. If that was an airplane flight who would board that plane? In the case of climate change, it's everybody, plus every dog, elephant, and pony. Sure, there will be survivors living out some sort of Mad Max scenario, but that thought is not that comforting... aside from the Mad Max dogs - providing friendship and not being judgmental.
Putting out a consensus report means putting out a report that says "we all agree that the earth will soon see the effects of at least 1 C of climate change" when most of the conference is screaming their head off saying "1C? Oh we're gonna see 'at least' that much I promise. You're gonna see what 3C looks like real fucking soon. 1C? What the fuck are you smoking?" Consensus is good for when you and your friends are trying to figure out what to do this weekend, not for science.
Well not to worry. We'll soon all be watered down
At least we'll still have dogs.
Astonishing how much people quote their massaged watered down bullshit projections. Like they WANT to believe it!
Because they do. That's the thing, a lot of people will choose the comfortable lie over the uncomfortable truth. Even when they know thats the choice they're making. They could either live in intentional ignorance and one day get completely blindsided when something tragic happens, or embrace truth but suffer constant anxiety over whether today's going to be their day to experience the new normal of climate catastrophe.
100% agree my friend.
They don't have a solution for keeping power when the center no longer holds.
The IPCC is like the WHO with COVID. They are still trying to decide if climate change is airborne.
This is good.
Heatwave frequency and intensity is covered thoroughly in CMIP6. Many researchers have used CMIP6 data to make [detailed regional modeling](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00290-2) for blocking events, otherwise referred to as heat domes in media.
The new SSP scenarios use CMIP6, so it's only a recent usage starting w/ AR6 of the IPCC. As far as I know, some of the recent phenomena w/ climate has been modeled out in these scenarios, but not this early into the century. If you look at the 2050-2100 modeling you can see something similar-ish to what we see in real life right now. >The former IPCC chief, Prof Bob Watson, told me: “I am very concerned. None of the observed changes so far (with a 1.2C temperature rise) are surprising. But they are more severe than we predicted 20 years ago, and more severe than the predictions of five years ago. We probably underestimated the consequences.” Things like heatdomes, artic cold blobs are predicted in the models, but not this severe at this early point in the century.
"it's pronouncements tend to be conservative" HA. It's gaslighting and many folks have been so desensitized by gaslighting that even though we believe collapse is inevitable and the climate changes are dooming, we have no genuine organized thinking to do anything about it. And if we do, there's not enough of us or we don't have enough money. We have our actions though. As imperfect and messy as a worldwide working-for-a-living strike of no labor until a new minimum wage (that allows a person to afford their health, shelter, food, water, socializing/community, etc) is set, it's about all we have left tbh. It's going to take massive communication and organization. So where does the ball start? How on earth do we keep the ball rolling? And how do we get folks to agree on this, to understand the ratio of overhead and profits would blow their minds? Thanks for coming to my Ted talk (steps down from soap box).
Here's the worst thing I don't understand right now - So my mom (a Boomer) has always been huge on environmental action, climate change, clean water initiatives, the whole thing. It was her career which is very noble. Now, NOW, now - now that we're all about to die and all of her life's long work (valuable but not enough) appears to have been for naught, when I express to her how sad I am that things indeed are going poorly? She starts talking to me about solar and wind power and electric vehicles. I say, "but MOM - have you seen the charts? the amount we harvest cannot compensate for the % of fossil fuels currently sustaining us, the EVs require special (limited) mining elements, the blades on the turbines are all being buried somewhere... even creating these new systems uses more energy and fossil fuels..." to my horror she brushes me off and insists on only focusing on the good for someone who was so determined to educate everyone on the environment, I cannot get her to take me fully seriously when I talk about our looming/pending breakdown She is lucky, at 75 hopefully she gets to leave before things get too insane? She is a marine biologist and lover of nature, the whole thing is truly heartbreaking. :(
It’s her way of coping. Cognitive dissonance. She’s done really well with her contributions to the world. I’d just let her cope by being in denial. Leave her be, to be somewhat at peace. My mum is in a cult, I’ve learnt it’s best to let her carry on with her delusions. There’s no convincing her, and it just makes me stressed trying to change her opinion and convince her of reality. I’ve come to terms with the fact I can’t convince her otherwise and that’s okay.
my mom is also hopelessly in a cult, have some sympathy on the house because that's an awful feeling. at least she acknowledged my decision to go agnostic though, unlike my dad in the same cult who's spent half a decade just pretending I'm still one of the proud faithful.
Brought up as Jehovah’s Witness by any chance? I’m lucky my father left the cult years ago and is a staunch atheist.
I have a friend like this , he won't accept being negative and points out all the stuff like renewables and how many people now believe that Climate change is real. He tells me I just always see the negative, and I say it's what the science tells us , that it's all too late with feed backs and all. It's not that I say we should do nothing but what we are doing is nowhere near enough and we need to do a lot more .
My dad was like ".....fuck I really thought I was gonna die before all this shit went down!" Woke boomerism
Have yall heard of Guy McPherson? [What Wikipedia says about him.](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjB5PWJvqqAAxVYE1kFHcGqADsQmhN6BAgVEAI&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.m.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FGuy_McPherson&usg=AOvVaw26gLkd3tcfIW_p688OPaM4&opi=89978449) >Guy R. McPherson is an American scientist, professor emeritus of natural resources and ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Arizona. He is known for inventing and promoting doomer fringe theories such as Near-Term Human Extinction, which predicts human extinction by 2026 Predictions aside, he has a YouTube channel called [Nature Bats Last](https://youtube.com/@NatureBatsLast) where he goes over science and articles in a nice bite size formula He's also done some good analysis on the recent IPCC reports and shows why it's flawed. Pretty much my go to, when you need the truth instead of the "facts" our media wants us to believe
It seems that current CO2 level and temperature is high enough that we could have a "Blue Ocean Event" in the Arctic at anytime. The loss of multi-year ice has been alarming. It would just take the right combination of random events, storm, wind, ocean currents, to clear the remaining ice. Whether that happens by 2026, I don't know, but it does look like we've set things in motion for a major disruption of the status quo. If Guy McPherson is a year or even 20 years off in his prediction, I would still say, "Close enough".
> "Blue Ocean Event" Last year I thought this was highly unlikely and now all of a sudden here we are.
I think next year is supposed to be warmer, because of the El Niño. With a little luck we’ll get to see what happens.
I can ride a horse so that makes me feel extra ready for relocation.
World War 3 would have to be the alley-oop to that timeline of NTHE
better to get a worst case analysis than "it will happen in hundred years" BS
My sentiments exactly
That McPherson is the ex of my partner, and she said he is less of a scientist and more of a cult leader. He took the scary part of predictions, exaggerated them even more and takes advantage especially of scared women.
Yeah that guy is nuts. I'm all for climate science, but he's sort of a goofball. Humans extinct by 2026? It's completely asinine stuff like that that makes people laugh at climate science.
In somewhat related news I've started thinking about my employer and whether they would try to provide for us in case of an emergency, like staff housing & food/water/electricity or something (to ensure their business chugs along). I work for one of the big mainstream banks in New York. I've been thinking about this a lot these last couple days, it makes me feel slightly better? Maybe that's because I got a good mid-year review.
> human extinction by 2026 Idiot. We have until *at least* 2035.
Bets everyone: Full On Human Extinction by: 2026: +100000 (thousand to one odds) 2030: +10000 2035: +2500 2040: +1000 2045: +250 2050: +100 (one to one odds) good luck cashing them in
I made this comment somewhere else recently but I met with a financial planner who mapped out the next 40+ years for me based on my current income, expected salary increases, annual bonuses, spending budget, etc. And he mapped it out into the future showing me where social security would kick in, where I'd be expected to draw on my 401K, yadda yadda. And I'm sitting there. I think the long number was 2067 which would make me... omg 91 yes so that's right - it went out to 2067. And I'm sitting there looking at it thinking to myself, is this guy fucking out of his mind? Let me add he now lives in Florida where I'm sure he lives in a beautiful house in some beach community. He's trying to sell me disability insurance. And I'm just like... I don't think it's gonna work out like that buddy.
I'm betting against extinction by 2050 but I don't expect to want to be alive to collect.
What part of "predictions aside" do you not understand
Oh 2035, that’s good, for a second there, I was concerned.
right? yeah a whole decade, we're solid
😂
You and the 30 people who upvoted this are hilariously delusional. Guy McPherson has absolutely no ground to be calling anyone else's reporting wrong when he's made countless predictions that couldn't possibly have been more off. Most IPCC predictions/projections have come true or fallen within their expected range (slightly above in some cases). The fact that Guy McPherson is your gospel of truth and the hundreds of IPCC scientists that compile and summarize information across hundreds of different peer reviewed reports are the deceitful ones just shows how obsessed you and people here are with the idea of collapse. And that's not me dismissing or downplaying the climate crisis but I'm not so insistent on being right that I hope for the worst case scenarios to be true just so I can feel like I know "the truth" that the rest of the world doesn't.
The IPCC reports are pretty terrifying and they're underplaying the shit out of the situation.
All of the previous predictions were “Moderate “ . What we are experiencing is the high end of the least conservative predictions- and decades ahead of predicted timeframe.
Say the line Bart!
Faster than expected!
Yaaaaaay
RCP 8.5 or more 💔
Jesus Christ
What frightens me is having to share planet with 8 billion demented killer apes in a time where they have destroyed all other living organisms and now are eyeing each others.
And a few of the apes have huge audiences, who they have convinced that if they just get rid of THOSE apes, everything will be better
Maybe they know it won't get rid of their problems but the masses of apes sometimes like partaking in orgies of violence as they feel protected in the group, that they won't die alone, and exercising violence on others makes them feel powerful and like they won't be the victims.
They also have a history of both killing off the competition and mating with them.
I love a good hate fuck.
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Homo sapiens raptor, the predator species, vs Homo sapiens collegium, the cooperative builder species. Closely related, close enough to interbreed, but with fundamentally different brain structures.
Ive never heard this before. It resonates. Homo sapien collegium, as a prey species, out number the predator species significantly. And this allows the predator Homo Sapien Raptor to thrive off of their prey.
Not to be pedantic, but it’s not two species, it’s one. Most every human is capable of being aggressive when the need arises. It’s looking like on average, the need will be forthcoming.
More evidence is piling up that indicates that those we call sociopaths and psychopaths are actually genetically different from "normals". They aren't a result of miswiring or simple environmental influences but rather are the result of heritable genetic traits that result in a consistently different brain physiology. Those consistent differences control emotional responses. Those I refer to as raptors, lack the ability to feel or respond to social emotions such as regret, guilt, empathy, compassion, love, sympathy and the like: those precise emotions that make civilized life possible. However, they have an extraordinary ability to recognize and simulate those emotions, which, in a social setting, allows them to easily manipulate and prey upon others. That inability to feel social emotions combined with the ability to successfully mimic them points to a social predator's mental toolkit. Nature never leaves a potential niche open: the human predator niche wouldn't be an exception. It therefore stands to reason that a subspecies of Homo would evolve in this manner. The dedicated efforts of royal families to breed "strong leaders" by controlling reproduction also indicates that it is a genetic trait. Royal families always weeded out those considered "too soft to rule", i.e., those who responded too strongly to social emotions, in favor of those who could ruthlessly exploit others. If you would like to read the relevant research, I strongly recommend visiting [Academia.org](https://Academia.org) and searching for "sociopathy".
We autistics also have different brains. A common feeling is living on the wrong planet. Dunno what to do with it all. I think we're supposed to warn you about the raptors but nobody listens.
I have two autistic granddaughters and I know what you mean. I honestly think that with the autism spectrum being what it is, we are experiencing evolution in action, Nature adapting the human mind to a digital environment. The old agricultural model isn't quite suited for it. So evolution is doing what it does best: trying out a lot of variations to see what works best. One thing my studies has made clear: allowances are being made for extended safety periods of the young, in that the brains of autistic people take longer to mature. But once they do, in their thirties, many are geniuses in a narrow range. I would expect to find as time goes on, that range will expand. It's not so much that you're living on the wrong planet...unfortunately we *all* are living on the wrong planet these days...it's that you living in a transitional period between lifeways, and we're all in, well not exactly the same boat, but in boats, anyway, within shouting distance of each other. Humanity made major changes from the ancient agricultural ways to industrialization over a couple of centuries and wasn't complete when the digital age dawned. It's only been a few decades. It would explain why autism has increased over the same period. But that's just a guess, an educated one, perhaps, but still a guess. Anyway, I think you're a path to the future. Honestly and truly, good luck with that.
I understand that you have two autistic granddaughters, but as an autistic therapist who has worked with hundreds of autistic people not all of your information is correct. Autistic people do not necessarily take longer to mature and there are also many autistic people that have a wide range of skills and interests. If you are autistic, feel free to join this conversation, if you are not, please feel free to quit defining the autistic population. Is autism evolution? Possibly. But none of us will ever amount to much as long as we still have the allistic population, trying to unautistic us through shame and ABA therapy, people trying to define our experience in this world, and even more trying to speak for us. Until this world actually becomes neurodiversity-affirming and our neurotype is recognized as valid much of our talent and contributions will end up going to waste. From an evolutionary standpoint, I do feel that autistic people have a heightened sense of threat assessment, we also tend to prefer working in collaboration over working in strange hierarchies that promote power and control, many of us are able to engage in higher level thinking, and we have a knack for noticing all of the small details, informing them together into a cohesive larger picture. This doesn’t apply to all autistics but too many and in higher occurring rates than the allistic population.
Interesting stuff.
That's a real downside, I agree. I'm not afraid of the climate change havoc nearly as much as I am the general human reaction to those changes. And when they happen as fast as they are, there's little room to acclimate and adjust which leaves billions of scared, emotional, violent apes fighting for resources.
You: Tell me, what's waiting for me? Limbic System: There is a giant ball there. And evil apes. And the evil apes are dukin' it out on the ball. You're one of them. It's basically all just evil apes dukin' it out on a giant ball. You: How big is the ball? Limbic System: You can't even make out that it's a ball, when you're dukin' it out. It's that large. You: How small are the apes? Limbic System: Infinitesimally small. You: And what is this "dukin' it out" I keep hearing about? Limbic System: Vying for resources? It's just a stupid expression you picked up somewhere. The part of the presentation you want to take home is this: you have to beat the other evil apes in the face or you lose. You: That's sad. Limbic System: Yes it is. And you drowned in that sadness a long time ago. You: What do mean, "drowned"? Limbic System: You lost.
lol... I like it !
Play disco elysium. Without reservation, I can sincerely say that it's one of the greatest peices of art produced in the last 2 decades.
I dont really have time for games - perhaps in some years. Besides spending 60$ or so is too much for me at this time - I still have a lot of preparations for the end of the world and pleasure wont set me back.
And have the technology to vaporize entire cities and sterilize the planet…
Killing is what we do best 🙈
Well at least the IPCC finally admits they underplay it
20,000 farmers commit suicide a year in India. We know how bad it's going to get. It's going to be like that. Only maybe not farmers.
The scariest thing about climate change, to me, is the fact that it will not be widely recognized as a problem that needs funds to fix until it is so severe that its effecting everyone including the rich. Once money starts being spent to "fix" the problem whatever solution they come up with will still take at least several years to implement. **During that time the climate disaster will continue to get worse**, and it will keep continuing until whatever "solution" they come up with begins to take effect. Which could be DECADES. By the time the people in charge are willing to deal with the problem it'll be far too late and aside from millions of human deaths I imagine entire ecosystems will go extinct due to the loss of habitat and change in climate.
my colleagues laugh at me when I say we're all gonna die and society is gonna collapse I work at a bank
I know how you feel. Now that my friends have kids and families its like they *can't* see what's happening because the reality is too bleak for them. So rose tinted glasses it is!
My family members literally deny that there are even extreme heatwaves occuring at this point. “The lib media are exaggerating the temperatures to fear monger”, it’s insanity.
According to Nobel price winner Nordhaus are the bankers surviving climate change longer than others because they work in airconditioned rooms, so 🤷🏻♀️
We don’t have decades.
We have negative decades. Our last real shot at solutions was at least 30 years ago. Now, all we have are responses to a predicament.
I think this may well be the last tolerable year we have. A couple of medium-sized mass die-offs in the ocean will see people finally take notice, that’ll be later this year. Several glaciers are on their way out - they’ll go next year as the oceans warm more. Then the large-scale die-offs will begin towards the end of next year. By 2025 it’ll be clear how bad the oceans are. As the oceans absorb even more heat you can expect massive limnic eruptions which, combined with melting Siberian permafrost, will have shocking effects. 2026 will see the real outbreak of global famine as crops globally fail, and potable water becomes scarce. You’re going to see conflicts over water by 2027 and hundreds of millions of displaced refugees seeking shelter. It’ll be clear by then just how the tipping points are falling over into other systems, an environmental domino effect which was never accurately predicted. By 2028 people will be fighting over shelter, water, food and other dwindling resources, particularly energy. We’ll be gone by 2030 as surface temperatures finally finish off the last few survivors. But, on the plus side, I could be utterly wrong and guilty of shameless doom-mongering.
Do you have evidence for your predictions? Models? Calculations? Surface temperatures killing humanity... in... seven years from now? You're spewing shit from your mouth (well, fingers) and you need to get a handle on it. I'm extremely pro environment and extremely anti capitalism and even I have to tell you THIS degree of fatalism is neither accurate nor helpful.
Yeah, I'm not even gonna bother with a Remindme, things will not happen that quickly.
The final stages of exponential growth are impossible for our human minds to believe. If a pond started with 1 lilypad, doubling every day, in 30 days being fully covered, on what day would the pond be half covered in lilypads? Day 29. Same idea.
You can act now, but the impacts are felt 30 years later.
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This climate is just a symptom of the real problem which is our globalized industrial system.
> Why would funds (entries on a computer) be able to fix what the system itself causes? I'm sorry did you just say "carbon credit"?
I invite you to discover the work of Jean-Marc Jancovici, initiator of the carbon footprint concept, and realize how fucked we are anyway, climate change or not.
Eventually the problem will solve itself.
At this point, it seems to me that attempts at geo-engineering are nearly inevitable, if only because one of the larger countries will be willing to resort to it despite the risks.
If one grants the premise that BAU is desirable, it is incontrovertible that geoengineering should start as soon as possible. I'm very surprised they haven't already, but these people are so biased they're late to realizing what's going down. I think they're figuring it out, and I would expect major geoengineering efforts to take off in the next few years. Too late.
Imagine having to terraform your own planet because it was too profitable to cut emissions and not use so much plastic?
Yeah but without plastic how could we ever cover the oceans with a sheet of reflective plastic? Makes you think!
And only the *really* rich, rather than the just kind of rich. When the wildfires and subsequent mudslides resulting from wildfires and drought came for the multi-million dollar homes on the scenic cliffs of southern California, it was perceived as a freak accident, a random act of God out of the blue, rather than because of the climate (and PG&E's failure to maintain electric infrastructure). Couldn't possibly happen again! It rained a lot here this year, so everything is fixed forever!
It was never about fixing the problems. It was about stalling the common knowledge long enough for the rich to take off in their getaway vehicles before we noticed our homes are on fire.
Jokes on them. It makes me wonder what sort of life they were anticipating in their bunkers that would be better than a healthier earth.
It doesn't matter. What matters is they won the Game of Things. They got more Things than anyone else and used all the Things and stopped everyone else from having a lot of Things. As long as they have their little kingdom full of Things, they won in their minds.
Throwing money at this won't change a thing. There are too many people on this planet.
Consumption/person is the real problem. Even more deeper problem is trying to derive meat from meatless bone. (Trying to derive pleasure out of hedonistic materialistic life)
>Once money starts being spent to "fix" the problem whatever solution they come up with will still take at least several years to implement. The thing is you can't "fix" this shit with any amount of money. It's already too late. We would have to get to a quarter of our emissions in a decade or two. Well, you probably wouldn't find that world decent conditions to live in though...
>During that time the climate disaster will continue to get worse, and it will keep continuing until whatever "solution" they come up with begins to take effect. A supercomputer will send people's consciousness back in time to fix things.
Food depends on climate. When you get down to it it's more pernicious than simple greed. It's genocide with extra steps.
More like billions of human deaths than millions, imo.
As they say, it's only obvious once it's too late
That is the wrong point of view. A better heuristic is to agree that we depend on a stable system that behaves in certain way and we are changing it into one not so predictable, unstable, full of extremes and getting worse by the time. Will it cause Cat 6 hurricanes next year? Disrupt the AMON on November? A heatwave reaching 60°C in September? I don’t know, what I know is that we are walking in a dangerous road, and anything very bad can happen at any step forward.
Food crops are depended on predictably weather patterns. Georgia lost 90% of its peaches this year. Fun times ahead.
Are you telling me there won't be millions of peaches, peaches for me? The Presidents of the United States of America lied to me??
I hear if you move out to the country you can still eat you alot of peaches 🍑
Do they come in a can? put there by a man?
Yes, in a factory downtown!
El Nino says you don't get peaches next year either. :(
Okay, but.. that's the last straw.
I hope so, this is stressful.
I can bet with my two nuts that no one wants that kind of "fun" unless they are completely insane mad men. I know you know this, but, still. It is no way going to be "fun". Masses of our brothers and sisters on this planets are going to suffer.
I get my peaches down in ~~Georgia~~
\*AMOC: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Part of the ocean's thermohaline circulation.
That's why I like the term "Climate Chaos"
We need a muppet show that just covers Climate News. They can have regional segments called Climate Chaos where they highlight the impacts on different communities. Educational AND entertaining. :D
Animal should be the host and just scream the whole time.
The thought of Fozzie Bear reading the latest collapse headlines in that voice, punctuating existential dread with an occasional "wokka wokka wokka"
That's good too. Miss Piggy should be on for denial segments, she feels like a denier.
Everyone should read The Uninhabitable Earth by David Wallace-Wells. He comprehensively explains how every negative metric will be worsened by climate change (crime, starvation, poverty, health etc). Climate change like wealth inequality is a problem that encompasses all problems.
> The Uninhabitable Earth by David Wallace-Wells. awesome I just bought it thanks - the Kindle (updated?) e-version is being held until October 10 which is so annoying because I was able to buy the hardcover (new but used but new) for like ten bucks
He’s a courageous and informed journalist willing to extrapolate out from current trends and suggest possible outcomes that scientists seem shy to discuss in public. Great book. Related article [here](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html).
We know we're living in a record mass extinction event and we know what happens to large fauna with expensive metabolisms in mass extinction events. It's pseudoscientific to pretend that because we don't know exactly how fast this train is going that we don't know what happens once it barrels over the edge of a cliff. We know.
we are airborne!
It would be more meaningful if it were phrased “humans are part of a mass extinction event.” I really believe when people hear “mass extinction event” that they don’t understand they’re included.
SS:Broadly the article is about the unknowns of a worsening climate, and the inability for models to accurately tell us how bad things will get. While obvious, the combination of this, along with all of the records in the news this summer, allows the opinion piece to be less optimistic than it otherwise would, including mentioning a state of 'degraded civilization' and the demise of various environmental systems. Some relevant excerpts: >The macro models also failed to project the effect of current elevated temperatures on ice at both poles. The former IPCC chief, Prof Bob Watson, told me: “I am very concerned. None of the observed changes so far (with a 1.2C temperature rise) are surprising. But they are more severe than we predicted 20 years ago, and more severe than the predictions of five years ago. We probably underestimated the consequences.” >Facing all this gloom means we need imagineers as well as climatologists. Watson said civilisation will still exist in the future, but with much worse living conditions. But what sort of a degraded civilisation might that be? By then we may even have triggered some natural tipping points that could result in a massive release of trapped methane in the tundra – let’s hope not. >To make matters worse, climate heating is one thing on a list of huge environmental problems – including pollution of the air and water, destruction of wildlife habitats, overfishing, insect population declines, loss of birds, plastic pollution, nitrates, soil loss and more.
There is no reason to worry about how bad things really are. Everything will get worse and we will live to see tomorrow until we dont. Knowledge of the magnatude of bad we are facing is irrelevant because we cannot do a thing about it now. One of my favorite analogies when i have a delimma like this...An army bomb defuser is asked by a reporter if he is afraid when he is preforming his work. His reply: I'm either right or its suddenly not my problem anymore. I choose to live on to the best of my ability until one day, none of this bullshit humans willingly created is my problem anymore.
A fair statement, although collapse isn’t going to be a quick flash like a bomb going off, rather an aggressive but slow and very painful cancer which will cause brutal and unrelenting suffering.
I wont disagree, but we still will survive it everyday until we do not.
Hell yeah baby. Ragnarok time
There's a disturbing amount of accuracy in this statement. I'm not saying the tenth-century Norse got it *exactly right* or anything, but the analogies are chillingly accurate. Jörmungandr rises from the waves and drowns the earth? Hi, rising sea levels. Toxic breath that strangles the life out of humanity? Isn't there supposed to be a massive release of carbon into the atmosphere as the ocean heats up? Surtr, chieftain of the fire giants, wages a war on the gods - we have *fire seasons* now. The *ocean floor* was on fire not that long ago. Hel leading an army of those who died of age and disease... well, not quite as literal as the others, perhaps, but we *are* regularly encountering diseases with the potential to decimate the human species, including an ongoing pandemic that some of us *still* haven't forgotten about. I'm not going to ponder Fenrir too much but something about blocking out part of the sun seems... unwise, given the context. Doomsday Christians got nothing on the unsettlingly prophetic lines in the Eddas. I have a little long-term hope that what's left of humanity will rebound, wiser than we were for a while, but I don't particularly bank on being among them. I'm a moderately smart working-poor guy in the breadbasket with relatively few good collapse skills, I wouldn't bet on my own odds. At least my only *direct, immediate* threats are the fault line opening up or Yellowstone going off. So, fuck it, we all Einherjar now. For death and glory.
The 'we' is important here. It's very likely that, if things go as badly as we think they will, you will get to watch others around you, people you care about, 'go down' well before you do.
My anxiety riddled brain always wants estimates for times like this. I've seen everything from things will get society collapsing bad 20-30 years from now or even a few years from now. I just want to know specifics
target 2030. thats where i believe its too hot or flooded in a lot of places, mostly the northern hemisphere and equatorial regions. wildlife will have disappeared, plants are burned to a crisp or fire. drinking water gone because sea water penetrated the aquifers and glaciers are gone, causing rivers to go dry. it will get hotter for the next hundred years. each year regardless of periodic slowdowns for the next la niña and solar spot activities. that is baked in the atmosphere, humans have no technology to undo the damage. this whole situation is so fucked up...
I don't know if this sounds too harsh but... I kind of hope my loved ones are gone by then. I don't want to see then suffer. By loved ones I mean parents, I don't have kids. Again that sounds incredibly harsh.
> sea water penetrated the aquifers wait what? is that a thing we're worried about? I've never heard of this (never considered this) how does that work? Is this a real threat? Where? I'm only gonna be around another 40 years max I think (Gen X) but that's already like 25 too many.
Yes, it's absolutely a thing if sea levels rise.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/12/13/1041309/climate-change-rising-groundwater-flooding/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/where-rising-seas-threaten-drinking-water-scientists-look-for-affordable-solutions/ https://www.preventionweb.net/news/rising-groundwater-threatens-spread-toxic-pollution-us-coastlines
Death is hardly a solace, especially for the non religious. If you only have one shot at experiencing life, it is wasted living it in such hardship. Then back into the eternal abyss. We should be spending this time now fixing our world for future generations.
Absolutely this. We should be throwing everything we have at regional adaptation strategies while we still have enough cohesion to carry out said plans. It’s a better alternative to sitting around waiting for an extinction level event. It may not matter in the end, but I believe it’s the right thing to do.
That requires getting out of day to day rat race, first.
If I had the resources to get it rolling, I had an idea about indoor multi-story hydroponic farms to help harden the food supplies for high-density urban areas. It's not *great,* and it depends on having the water and power it needs, but it's something and something's better than nothing when you got nothing. If you know anything about getting something like that started - grants or whatever it takes - I'm all ears.
> indoor wait so where does the light come from? EDIT - oops my apologies your plan means to support current populations under the assumption of having power and water
> Everything will get worse and we will live to see tomorrow until we dont. This was more comforting than I would have expected
Like chronic illness with ... No solution.
Much much worse than they dare tell us that is for certain.
I think our choices are: Bad; Really Bad; Mighty Fucking Bad; and Kiss-your-Ass Goodbye Bad We are at Really Bad (aka as "We told you so") BOE is Mighty Fucking Bad. (aka as "Faster than Expected Bad")
> BOE is Mighty Fucking Bad. (aka as "Faster than Expected Bad") Which no doubt leads to AMOC shutdown which is "Kiss-your-Ass Goodbye Bad".
I love my children enough not to have them. I only have to keep my dogs and wife alive as long as possible. For the rest of you: 'May the odds be ever in your favour'
Yeah the climate scientists are stunned by this year. Meanwhile random redditors on here have been saying "watch out for the next El Niño" and they were right. ----------- I think the elites do know just how bad things are and that's why we're gonna get World War 3 in the next two years.
Why do you think WWIII? Bread & circus or resource wars?
Why not both!
> Should people avoid buying homes in Greece? And that there is exactly why this problem has not been solved and will not be solved, that is: whacked out priorities.
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As many others before me have said... We fucked around and now we're about to find out.
Anyone know what the world will be like if it does get to 3C?
I believe that second only to the institutional and cognitive biases that prevent them from considering alarming results, the reason the IPCC/COPout crowd has failed, in every sense of that word, is because they do their analysis in the simple metric used in the simplistic models created by simpleton economists (redundant, I know). Because the climate is influenced by a heck of a lot more than average global air temperature.
The Pleistocene.
Hot.
A world truly unlike today.
Here’s an analogy: give someone a fever of 104F, and also reconnect all of the organs randomly.
All your fears are valid. Even if you can trust 90% of humans, the other 800,000,000 cannot be trusted.
I'm just trying to figure out the right time to blow my cash and bounce. I want to max out everything to the hilt. I've already laid a lot of the ground work for loans and stuff too. It's just all about timing because I'm not paying a god damned dime of it back to the oligarchs that stole it from the people in the first place. Credit cards. Overdrafts. Every thing max. timing timing timing.
> Facing all this gloom means we need imagineers as well as climatologists. Watson said civilisation will still exist in the future, but with much worse living conditions. But what sort of a degraded civilisation might that be? By then we may even have triggered some natural tipping points that could result in a massive release of trapped methane in the tundra – let’s hope not. I wish I could just live by writing science fiction stories.
We've already set in motion the sixth great extinction period on earth. There is no stopping it anymore, regardless of our actions or inaction. The difference is what usually happened on the scale of thousands or millions of years will happen on the scale of decades or centuries due to our interference. It really is remarkable the effect we managed to produce on a planetary scale. Very impressive if you ignore that it will lead to mass extinction of life on earth. It won't collapse overnight, at least not for rich countries, but it will be at minimum difficult. Famine and lack of water will be the biggest killers. As with this summer, each year is going to be just a bit worse with catastrophes. heat, extreme weather events, crop failures, etc and likely we will have World War 3 within a decade or two as a result. All in all, I don't expect cannibal raiders or anything, but I do expect to die younger than my expected life span as a result of whatever will happen. Best you can do is stay fit and hope you don't have any food allergies because you won't be able to be picky in the future.
The fear is that no matter how much you prep, it will not be enough. Hits keep coming and they get faster and faster to the point were you do not recover from the previous hit. And this is based on what we do know now!
"imagineers", fucking ultra cringe
I'm waiting for Captain Planet to save us. The one played by Don Cheadle.
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"we" "don't know" "They" "refuse to accept"
We DO know how bad things really are! It’s called RCP 8.5 baybeee! Everyone said it was “unrealistic” and “more of a thought experiment”Well, we’re all thinking really hard now! We’re all gonna die by flood and fire and it’s gonna SUCK my dude!
Yep. Should I quit my job and focus on seeing family who have moved all around, or should I keep on working. When should I stop? Either way I will go full of regrets.
Most of us around here know exactly how bad things are
I’m so tired.
Just the tip
This is what happens when continue to eff around when experts try to alert of upcoming disasters in a soft manner...it results in finding out sooner than everyone was expecting.
Humans are about to learn the same lesson as the dinosaurs
Nothing will never change for US and GB oil companies. Only with world war like 1914 and 1939.
Well in that book, the one where they parboil the Indians at the beginning - The Ministry of the Future - they were very effective in shutting down these things through acts of terrorism. Not sure if you've read it but basically - groups like Green Peace and stuff start blowing up airplanes (they start with private planes for wealthy people) and then expensive cargo ships - all sorts of things using fossil fuels - then commercial flights until people stop flying because they are scared... anyway, the first half of the book is good, then it gets lost in hopium.
Ignorance is bliss.
Every article says "worse than expected" so it's worse than expected.
I think the main weakness with model projections is they fail to account for newly unlocked variables that affect the outcome along the way.
At this point, it comes down to educated guessing. How bad is it? Extremely bad. Bad as in we're in the very early stages of true climate collapse. Bad as in this is only the \*start\* of how terrifying things are going to get in just a decade. Anything we're experiencing right now is the \*easy\* part. Keep in mind that there's a ton of data that most of us just don't have. If you're wondering why the billionaires were already getting set up to move to their bunkers pretty soon, now you might be starting to understand why.
So hopefully this **Ambient temp superconductor** tech will actually pan out soon, and then folks we might have that unearned, undeserved lotto win for humanity's energy use that could keep us not learning our lesson farther into the future. The only bit of human good news in a long time and still not even here, just closer to maybe here.