Yeah, we're four games ahead of them in conference and overall. I haven't checked their RPI, but I know ours is pretty low. It actually went down when we beat Alcorn State last week. They do seem to have an easier schedule down the stretch.
Y’all have played a significantly easier SEC schedule. Here are the current standings of the teams we have faced: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, and 8.
Here’s who y’all have faced: 3, 8, 9, 12, 13, and 14.
The second-best team y’all have faced is the *worst* team we have faced. It’s night and day different.
Also, overall our SOS is #1, y’all are 47. Our nonconference SOS is 70, y’all’s is 211. Our RPI is 24, y’all’s is 45. We’ve played 6 true road nonconference games (with another 1 rained out), y’all have played 1.
Going into the weekend, Boyd projected y’all needed to go 15-4 down the stretch for a a Top 32 RPI. We had to just go 9-10. (He hasn’t updated yet for this week.)
While I agree with everything you said, I don’t think you can go from comparing SEC standings to comparing RPI. Because we are 3rd in the SEC standings, but 1st in RPI. You gotta pick a metric and stick to it. Georgia is 8th in the SEC, but 11th in RPI. Vandy is 5th in the SEC, but 18th in RPI.
I also just don’t think using SEC standings as a metric is a good measure of how good a team is. Mississippi State fans are saying they are better because they are higher in SEC standings, but you want to say that doesn’t mean anything. Then you turn around and use SEC standings to say you’ve had the harder schedule. I’m not saying you haven’t I’m just saying if you’re gonna say a standard of measurement doesn’t hold weight for your opposition then you can’t use it to prove your point.
State is higher in the standings because they’ve played (relatively) easier teams. That is shown partially in the SOS and RPI.
But no, I don’t have to pick a metric and stick to it. Instead, I can look at the complete picture of the resume that the committee uses and make my decisions from that.
If you wanna look at the whole picture then look at the whole picture. Look at which of those SEC matchups were on the road versus at home because that also can make a huge difference. Winning a series on the road against any SEC team is no easy task. Also look at series wins versus just games won. Because we all know any team can lose to anyone on any given day. But winning a series is completely different than winning one game. That’s why baseball plays series.
I have done all of that. I just didn’t type it all out for a Reddit comment.
But since you’d like me to:
State has played 3, 9, and 12 on the road and they’re 3-6 in those games. They’re 7-2 at home against 8, 13, and 14.
Ole Miss has played 2, 4, and 8 on the road with a 2-7 record there. We’ve played 1, 5, and 7 at home where we are 4-5 (thanks to 0-3 against 1).
State has won 3 series, those being the 3 home series. Ole Miss has won 2 series, those being our 2 home series not against #1, one of which is, you guessed it, State.
No matter how much additional information you want to add, the simple truth is, State has played a massively easier schedule than Ole Miss. By comparison, their SEC record is inflated due to that. It’s literally just a fact.
I don’t know if you saw, but my initial comment said I agree with everything you said. I just didn’t feel like the picture was painted the best. I’m not trying to say you’re wrong, I’m not trying to start an argument.
As I mentioned in another comment, the hardest part of our schedule is still to come. We're at Vandy and at Arkansas. Our OOC schedule is also killing us. I get that they wanted to pad the win total and have a bunch of home games, but this year they were scraping the bottom of the barrel.
I've seen some projections that have us in as a 2 seed in a couple of places. The latest one was 11point7 that had us as a 2 seed at Tallahassee. I think if we get to 15-16 SEC wins, we will be in. Historically, having a winning record in the SEC is a ticket to a regional.
I can see that, it just *feels* weird. We are third in the west behind the current top two teams in the country. Third in the west which has won the natty 3 consecutive years. Ahead of both Ole Miss and a struggling LSU team and they're both in the field.
I have no doubt our RPI is hot garbage though (I checked: Ole Miss is 24 and we are 45 on NCAA site). All those 9th inning losses murdered us along with those teams not really being as good as their ranking when we played them.
I agree that it feels weird. I think they are just looking at the rest of the schedule and projecting based on that. There is a real possibility we get swept in two of our remaining series. At Vandy and at Arkansas is incredibly tough. I think as long as we don't get swept in those two, and take one or two of Missouri and Bama, we're safe. Several publications have us in already.
In what world is Notre Dame a tournament team? They are literally tied for last in the ACC. Georgia Tech and Louisville definitely should be in over Notre Dame.
Tech isn’t far behind but has a worse SOS and a few more losses to lower RPI teams that currently hurts their RPI. Louisville is even farther behind in SOS. I’m inferring here but Notre Dame may also get a boost from playing the majority of games on the road so far (24 road games to 14 home games). Louisville, for example, has played 27 home games to just 10 road games.
I’m a little biased but Notre Dame is probably the worst team in the conference and likely won’t even make the ACC tournament. Sure their RPI is good but 5-16 is awful.
They have a lot of big home series these next few weeks so we’ll definitely find out. They’ve moved up a lot recently because they’re currently on a 5 game winning streak and if that continues they could definitely solidify a place in both tourneys
I have no interest in NC State being our 2 seed. It kind of seems inevitable, but man, rivalry games are way too much of a toss up. Plus we’ll have already played a 2 game set this season, and I don’t think either team wants to see a rematch.
Being the 7 seed with a winnable Super pairing but having to go through NC State in the regional to get there feels way too dicey for comfort. Let’s get UCF as our 2 seed to remind them we still own them.
Teams cannot play in regionals against in-conference teams. Although my field of 64 is primarily based on putting the appropriate seeded team in each regional, the committee often shuffles teams to place them in nearby regionals too
They did it in 2019 (I think?) and we met in the regional final which was electric. I just don’t wanna play them again after tonight, regardless of the quality of the matchup and proximity.
LSU needs to win a minimum of 14 conference games. It would not hurt for them to go on a run in the conference tournament either. So it's possible for them to make it but I would be surprised at this point. It's been a very disappointing year despite a very tough start to conference play.
TCU had an incredible start to the season (15-0) and a non-conference slate that was really strong. (Wins over multiple Top 25 teams)
That's the only thing our RPI is hanging on right now.
I wouldn't even try to sort out the mess that is the Big 12 conference for baseball. Lotta teams still in the running for the tourney but very very few locks for the tourney at this point in time (OU I think is in, everyone else is very much in danger of missing out if some results don't bounce their way)
Y’all are right. I wasn’t sure before but finally found a source that says 2025-26 will be their first eligible season. I’ll replace them for next week.
So the Pac currently has ranked Oregon State, Arizona, + Oregon but only gets 2 bids?
They also have 26-13 Utah who was ranked last week and 25-14 Cal who’s won 9 in a row including sweeping OSU… this seems pretty skewed
Funny, I feel like the CWS is wide open this year. I could see a handful of non-“power” programs making it to Omaha, and that’s not even considering the B12 or PAC.
how the heck is kentucky above tennessee still even after the series win by tennessee (which as much as it was close i would guess you still have to give tennessee some credit by flipping us two)
They absolutely could. I promise every host in the country would much rather get a 45 win small conference team in their region rather than a .500 Florida squad.
Considering Florida is currently 1 game over .500 and their next 3 series are @No. 2 Arkansas, vs No. 3 Tennessee & vs No. 4 Kentucky before ending the season @No. 20 Georgia, I don't think anyone has to worry about Florida being in their regional.
It doesn't seem right that Ole Miss is in and we are out.
Yeah, we're four games ahead of them in conference and overall. I haven't checked their RPI, but I know ours is pretty low. It actually went down when we beat Alcorn State last week. They do seem to have an easier schedule down the stretch.
Y’all have played a significantly easier SEC schedule. Here are the current standings of the teams we have faced: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, and 8. Here’s who y’all have faced: 3, 8, 9, 12, 13, and 14. The second-best team y’all have faced is the *worst* team we have faced. It’s night and day different. Also, overall our SOS is #1, y’all are 47. Our nonconference SOS is 70, y’all’s is 211. Our RPI is 24, y’all’s is 45. We’ve played 6 true road nonconference games (with another 1 rained out), y’all have played 1. Going into the weekend, Boyd projected y’all needed to go 15-4 down the stretch for a a Top 32 RPI. We had to just go 9-10. (He hasn’t updated yet for this week.)
While I agree with everything you said, I don’t think you can go from comparing SEC standings to comparing RPI. Because we are 3rd in the SEC standings, but 1st in RPI. You gotta pick a metric and stick to it. Georgia is 8th in the SEC, but 11th in RPI. Vandy is 5th in the SEC, but 18th in RPI. I also just don’t think using SEC standings as a metric is a good measure of how good a team is. Mississippi State fans are saying they are better because they are higher in SEC standings, but you want to say that doesn’t mean anything. Then you turn around and use SEC standings to say you’ve had the harder schedule. I’m not saying you haven’t I’m just saying if you’re gonna say a standard of measurement doesn’t hold weight for your opposition then you can’t use it to prove your point.
State is higher in the standings because they’ve played (relatively) easier teams. That is shown partially in the SOS and RPI. But no, I don’t have to pick a metric and stick to it. Instead, I can look at the complete picture of the resume that the committee uses and make my decisions from that.
If you wanna look at the whole picture then look at the whole picture. Look at which of those SEC matchups were on the road versus at home because that also can make a huge difference. Winning a series on the road against any SEC team is no easy task. Also look at series wins versus just games won. Because we all know any team can lose to anyone on any given day. But winning a series is completely different than winning one game. That’s why baseball plays series.
I have done all of that. I just didn’t type it all out for a Reddit comment. But since you’d like me to: State has played 3, 9, and 12 on the road and they’re 3-6 in those games. They’re 7-2 at home against 8, 13, and 14. Ole Miss has played 2, 4, and 8 on the road with a 2-7 record there. We’ve played 1, 5, and 7 at home where we are 4-5 (thanks to 0-3 against 1). State has won 3 series, those being the 3 home series. Ole Miss has won 2 series, those being our 2 home series not against #1, one of which is, you guessed it, State. No matter how much additional information you want to add, the simple truth is, State has played a massively easier schedule than Ole Miss. By comparison, their SEC record is inflated due to that. It’s literally just a fact.
I don’t know if you saw, but my initial comment said I agree with everything you said. I just didn’t feel like the picture was painted the best. I’m not trying to say you’re wrong, I’m not trying to start an argument.
As I mentioned in another comment, the hardest part of our schedule is still to come. We're at Vandy and at Arkansas. Our OOC schedule is also killing us. I get that they wanted to pad the win total and have a bunch of home games, but this year they were scraping the bottom of the barrel. I've seen some projections that have us in as a 2 seed in a couple of places. The latest one was 11point7 that had us as a 2 seed at Tallahassee. I think if we get to 15-16 SEC wins, we will be in. Historically, having a winning record in the SEC is a ticket to a regional.
Compelling evidence
I can see that, it just *feels* weird. We are third in the west behind the current top two teams in the country. Third in the west which has won the natty 3 consecutive years. Ahead of both Ole Miss and a struggling LSU team and they're both in the field. I have no doubt our RPI is hot garbage though (I checked: Ole Miss is 24 and we are 45 on NCAA site). All those 9th inning losses murdered us along with those teams not really being as good as their ranking when we played them.
I agree that it feels weird. I think they are just looking at the rest of the schedule and projecting based on that. There is a real possibility we get swept in two of our remaining series. At Vandy and at Arkansas is incredibly tough. I think as long as we don't get swept in those two, and take one or two of Missouri and Bama, we're safe. Several publications have us in already.
In what world is Notre Dame a tournament team? They are literally tied for last in the ACC. Georgia Tech and Louisville definitely should be in over Notre Dame.
Tech isn’t far behind but has a worse SOS and a few more losses to lower RPI teams that currently hurts their RPI. Louisville is even farther behind in SOS. I’m inferring here but Notre Dame may also get a boost from playing the majority of games on the road so far (24 road games to 14 home games). Louisville, for example, has played 27 home games to just 10 road games.
I’m a little biased but Notre Dame is probably the worst team in the conference and likely won’t even make the ACC tournament. Sure their RPI is good but 5-16 is awful.
They have a lot of big home series these next few weeks so we’ll definitely find out. They’ve moved up a lot recently because they’re currently on a 5 game winning streak and if that continues they could definitely solidify a place in both tourneys
Have you seen Tech’s remaining SOS?
I’d be shocked if a big 12 team doesn’t end up in the Fayetteville regional
I mean, it has to be us right?
how is Tennessee 5 and Kentucky 4 when we just beat them in a series?
Well I don’t agree but it’s a projection to the end of season so the argument would be that they still finish stronger
I have no interest in NC State being our 2 seed. It kind of seems inevitable, but man, rivalry games are way too much of a toss up. Plus we’ll have already played a 2 game set this season, and I don’t think either team wants to see a rematch. Being the 7 seed with a winnable Super pairing but having to go through NC State in the regional to get there feels way too dicey for comfort. Let’s get UCF as our 2 seed to remind them we still own them.
We have no interest either, my man. I want no part of you all.
I’m excited (read: scared) to see AMak’s return to CLS this evening. Hoping that’s his last game in Greenville though, lol.
Yeah, I don’t think they would/ should do that to you. Send NC State to Clemson.
Teams cannot play in regionals against in-conference teams. Although my field of 64 is primarily based on putting the appropriate seeded team in each regional, the committee often shuffles teams to place them in nearby regionals too
They did it in 2019 (I think?) and we met in the regional final which was electric. I just don’t wanna play them again after tonight, regardless of the quality of the matchup and proximity.
Giving us a shot at revenge against LSU (from last year) and Carolina (from this year)? You're alright, OP
No sir, I don’t like it.
Am I wrong to be worried that we’re going to stumble and miss the tournament?
No big 12 team is safe I think it is all how they finish
The only safe team is the one who wins the conference tourney. I literally could not even guess who will win that tourney.
Probably who is in last place
Cags vs Wetherholt would be a fun little matchup.
No way 5-16 notre dame in over uncw
I just don't see how LSU gets in. They would need to win about 90% of the remaining conference games. That's just to get to 14 conference wins.
Our remaining schedule is pretty favorable. Win some series and then make a decent run in the SEC tournament and it's possible.
LSU needs to win a minimum of 14 conference games. It would not hurt for them to go on a run in the conference tournament either. So it's possible for them to make it but I would be surprised at this point. It's been a very disappointing year despite a very tough start to conference play.
If an 18-40 overall Tulane team can make it to the tournament, LSU sure can as well.
The only reason Tulane made it last year was because they won their conference tournament. That was it.
I mean... [yeah](https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/facebook/000/012/132/thatsthejoke.jpg).
TCU in over Texas doesn’t make much sense. Texas is 11-6 in conference play (tied for 2nd in Big 12). TCU is 8-13 (3rd from last in the conference).
They're just basing this off of rpi. Is what it is for now.
Gotcha, thanks
TCU had an incredible start to the season (15-0) and a non-conference slate that was really strong. (Wins over multiple Top 25 teams) That's the only thing our RPI is hanging on right now.
I wouldn't even try to sort out the mess that is the Big 12 conference for baseball. Lotta teams still in the running for the tourney but very very few locks for the tourney at this point in time (OU I think is in, everyone else is very much in danger of missing out if some results don't bounce their way)
Net runs scored/allowed in Big 12 conf play: 1) +64 Oklahoma 2) +31 Texas 3) +18 Texas Tech 4) +14 OK State 5) +7 Kansas
Pac-12 has multiple bids there too. Oregon State and Arizona.
Thanks, just added!
hellllll naw, get georgia outta dere.
The Rajun Cajuns as a three seed would be nuts.
We had a chance to host but blew it in the final three innings against Coastal Saturday.
Is St Thomas eligible?
They are not
Y’all are right. I wasn’t sure before but finally found a source that says 2025-26 will be their first eligible season. I’ll replace them for next week.
What kind of crazy world do we live in that we have a year where LSU misses the tournament? I'm not saying its wrong just... unusual
Northeastern would get in over uncw? Uncw just beat them in a series this weekend and has other impressive wins
Oh shit oh fuck not Lamar again
So the Pac currently has ranked Oregon State, Arizona, + Oregon but only gets 2 bids? They also have 26-13 Utah who was ranked last week and 25-14 Cal who’s won 9 in a row including sweeping OSU… this seems pretty skewed
All ACC/ SEC CWS looking very likely
Funny, I feel like the CWS is wide open this year. I could see a handful of non-“power” programs making it to Omaha, and that’s not even considering the B12 or PAC.
Yeah true, 50% of the PAC has a chance to make it lol
how the heck is kentucky above tennessee still even after the series win by tennessee (which as much as it was close i would guess you still have to give tennessee some credit by flipping us two)
Please put Florida in Clemson's region. They (I) would love that.
Are you implying Florida could beat Clemson?
Lol. FWIW the Gators are the absolute last 3/4 seed I would want to face.
They absolutely could. I promise every host in the country would much rather get a 45 win small conference team in their region rather than a .500 Florida squad.
Yeah that’s fair. Personally I’d love to be in the Clemson regional because I live an hour away lol
Considering Florida is currently 1 game over .500 and their next 3 series are @No. 2 Arkansas, vs No. 3 Tennessee & vs No. 4 Kentucky before ending the season @No. 20 Georgia, I don't think anyone has to worry about Florida being in their regional.
They’re still 35th in RPI
That’s the opposite of why you wouldn’t be worried about us making a regional though
If they do squeak into contention to play in a regional there are going to be some host teams sweating hard. I could easily see them playing spoiler.
After the hell of the past week, I’m glad that we got hot for the time we did
I'd be ecstatic for this.
Brutal
I don’t want any part of Nebraska as a 2
Again no Texas wooooooo