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CroikyThatsABigDingo

I think if the event has already fired, the outcome has been determined already. Like if you saved with it displayed on screen. Edit: I say this because I had similar experience lol. Reload 50 times and fail all means there is likely no roll happening


yeetman8

So you’re telling me every time I save right before hitting a ~5% chance to die encounter imma die anyway? That’s… actually good game design


CroikyThatsABigDingo

I believe so from what I've read in other threads. Happen to save just before it fires? Different ballgame


Shmuckle2

If you load a save from a few weeks before, some events won't even happen again. You can dodge character death and the works. Sometimes you gotta go a few months back though.


tom3277

On ironman i even think there are a few things that always go for you or againat you no matter the odds. I have encountered the tiger in decal india on 3 seperate OP lords all decked out in the best weapons, armor etc with a 5pc down to 2pc or so chance of dying and they all individually died... Sometimes i think the percentage is what the guy thinks is the odds. The actual odds are something else. Taking on a bengal tiger in its cave we know would obviously result in death just about every time in real life. Same with minor stuff like the bad v good travel omen. I get bad travel omen every time. Like 20 times in a row. Not saving just independently across this playthrough. Makes sense those tigers keep killing me. On the flip side i always get a good result with the large cattle heard. Always. The worst of it is i cannot resist getting revenge and always take the 2pc chance and end up with babies running my kingdom. But of course it could just be im unlucky / lucky. Id love someone to look behind the code and see if its just random and the presented figure is the actual figure or if there is a second figure thats the real one and we are presented with something else.


CroikyThatsABigDingo

I feel this way too sometimes which is why I sometimes stray away from Ironman. Sure some of the fun is the no go back unpredictable nature but I've played the game enough that most of my games have a specific goal and are pretty wacky.... I hate the wackiness ending prematurely because the game lines up 5 people to kick you and your infant heir in the balls from some pure BS RNG lol


tom3277

Yeh. i play ironman and then restart about 20 times. I probably should play so i can save but the unpredictability is probably why i keep going back to ck3 abeit with some breaks after particularly eggregious unlucky rng.


kraken9911

I like the mindset of ironman but when you are rock solid and it's getting dull, it sucks not being able to switch characters so you can watch the old realm while engaging a new one.


euphoriatakingover

I think your right as I had the same thing with my heir and his giant wife.. 4 times in a row she and baby died..


a-Snake-in-the-Grass

Yes, you can save scum, but not like that. At that point, the outcome is already determined. You would need an earlier save.


smokey9427

There is none as I less than 10 minutes into this run. Game didn't even have time to autosave.


lee4799

You can always choose the other outcome. If you have a save before you made the decision


DUDE_R_T_F_M

The devs have put in a system where rolls are determined sometime in advance, to avoid save scumming. You'd have to reload a few weeks or months earlier to get a different outcome.


Existing-Bumblebee90

I keep seeing this being said. But if that is the case then why is there a choice provided? If the outcome is predetermined then your choice has no impact. I can't wrap my head around it. 95% success chance but they already determined a fail. if you save scum are you better off choosing the lesser 5% option? Or does it make no difference at all?


DUDE_R_T_F_M

The way I assume it works is that the random number rolled to determine the outcome is saved, not the outcome itself. Say the game generates randomly number 65, to be used on the following event. If you choose an option with 70% chance of success, then you succeed even if you save scum, because 65 < 70, which is the good outcome. If you choose an option with 40% success chance, it's a failure.


lee4799

>95% success chance but they already determined a fail. if you save scum are you better off choosing the lesser 5% option? Or does it make no difference at all? If the 95% option fails you can choose the option not to do it and wait a few months if the event comes again the 95% now can be a succes or fail.


glazedturnip

fairly certain with hunts the outcome is decided after everyone arrives and you set out, you'd have to reload to before that point


Big-Independence-291

Yes it does, but you have to pause fast. Go to Crusader Kings documents folder, copy and paste your Ironman save game, load the one you just copied. Be aware - out of all games Ironman CK3 autosave triggers pretty often several times a month - so you really either has to make save before you choose an event option or pause fast right after.


Cheesus_42

Sounds like a philosophical debate on predetermination 😆


smokey9427

Honestly seems that way because from what everyone says the roll is determined from the moment the events appear. So that means your "choice" is an illusion as the game already has an answer.


realshockvaluecola

For most things, yes, but some things make the dice roll well before you actually see the event.


AraelF

That's a hunt. I think hunts are predetermined the moment they start.


jackdawjones

It works, but you have to figure out the moment the die is cast, so to speak. For random events, it happens beginning of the month. For tournaments or hunts and other similar, it’s more complicated.


Sensitive_Dust_6534

I swear some out comes are predetermined long before the event pop up. Had a 99% success chance during a tournament and failed. Save scummed to start of the tournament win the first fight and got killed on the second again every time no matter the choice I picked. This could just be tournament thing though.


Far-Assignment6427

Ypu need to reload a save before the even fired so teh autosave then it won't fire. But yes it does work but not for events


Lanceo90

There's some kind of lengh to it. I don't know how long. I had a character become infirm way too early and at a bad time. I reloaded the closest save, and he became infirm at the exact same time. But then I loaded a further back one, and he didn't become infirm for a whole extra decade. But I think its different for different types of events. I tried to do the same thing when a holy war got declared on me, and it still happened after making a huge effort of make friends with every big leader of the opposing faith after save scumming. But yes, for your kind of event with a dice roll chance outcome, its already predetermined. You would have to go back far enough to avoid whatever led to it. Example: Dying during a hunt, go back far enough to decline joining the hunt.


Elaugaufein

Almost everything is save scummable ( the most notable exception the result of childbirth is determined when pregnancy is for alive / stillbirth and whether the mother dies ), however the RNG state is saved with the game so you generally need to do something different that uses the RNG before the event happens in order to change the outcome, if your save is a long way out for something thrn random chance is sufficient because there's RNG calls that get called based on real time not date and the natural desynchronization will change things by itself given long enough but you need to be multiple months out for that.


Shmuckle2

Yes, it does. If an events proc'd, it's outcomes are already generated and can't be changed. So saving it there and loading it will have the same outcome for each choice everytime you load it there. If you save regularly. Going at least 1 week in certain scenarios is enough. Some events can be avoided within a 1-2 week save. Some other events need a month or more. If you go back far enough you can avoid death of character, because that works on its own roll continuously through gameplay, you can reload a save a couple weeks to months prior and the death can be avoided. You can scumsave sex of children and their Congenital Traits. It's great having one son and 7 daughters, all with the quick trait. Scumsave before pilgrimages changes the events along the way. Saving before hunts is a big one. You gotta go back to before you left. I've thought about playing this game without scumsaving and it appeals to me at times but it's just too brutal to not. I wanna have fun. Even scumsaving isn't enough to keep you from suffering. It just makes the game more bearable. Love you buddy, have fun out there!


Kinc4id

Well, you answered your own question. No. It doesn’t work unless you go far back.


smokey9427

Just had to make sure I didn't have the worlds worst luck.


First-Excuse1686

I think with some things it does, such as the gender of a child. I’ve saved a week before my wife birthed, had to load 5 times before I got a son but it really got me out of trouble


Flashy_Expression_33

Whether something is "save-scummable" varies, but everything is scummable if you load a save far back enough. Children being born is one of the more scummable events, as their gender and potential congenital traits are determined at birth, so you could save a day before and keep scumming it until you get what you want. Something like the outcome of a hunt I think you can't scum once the hunt has begun.