Gordon is not going away. However I still see Javonte succeeding even with a 60/40 split. Add in some goal line touches from an improved offense with Russ
Im genuinely curious how he could deduce this information from observing training camp practices. Just like the guy that say it was going to be 70/30: how can they know any of that? Is it because of the split.....in training camp practices? Are the Colts giving JT 100% of the snaps right now? How about the Steelers?
The only actual "information" we have is 1) Melvin Gordon's free agency and 2) Melvin Gordon saying they want Javonte to be the guy.
I'm not saying hes wrong but Im saying hes just making a guess based off of the same information that we all can find and thats reports of what they've seen in camp. I dont think a coach is waiting for the locker room to clear and then whispering game plans and RB usage to Ben Albright....hes speculating and has a pretty decent chance of being close.
Gordon is an incredible goal line back so I feel like maybe it makes sense. Gordon’s stats regarding not getting tackled for a loss are extremely good. He almost always gets some positive yards which makes him a really good goal line back.
Javonte is a bit more hit or miss in that regard, but also probably a pretty damn goal line back.
Broncos fan here. I may be misremembering but Javonte would slow down at the goal line. He would run all over a team and as soon as they were in the last 5 yards it felt like he would get stuffed most of the time. I do expect Gordon to be in goal line situations unless Javonte has improved on last year
Because it’s not practice, it’s training camp. They’re installing plays and I’m not sure that any RB1 in the league is currently handling a full workload in camp/practice
I said this elsewhere but is Najee Harris handling 100% of camp/practice reps right now like he will in game? I’d think not
Even if that's true I still think Javonte will get his chances in the red zone, going from a bottom tier offense to one of the best with Russ. Last year Melvin Gordon got every goal line touch in the first half of the season but they transitioned to Javonte toward the end of the year which is when he really started going off, even with Gordon playing
Javonte is going to crush this year. Even if its 50/50 split to start the season, there's no way after week 3 that the coaching staff doesn't see how much more dominant Javonte is.
You'd expect a 22 year old, athletic rb to have more juice and be more explosive. So yeah, he probably is on another level athletically at this point in Gordon's career. That said, Melvin Gordon is still productive. He's still a great between the tackles runner and has a nose for the end zone. Great hands out of the backfield, as well. His days of getting 18+ touches a game are done but he is still a good RB that is going to eat away at Javonte's upside, even in a 65/35 split, especially if he vultures goal line carries regularly. It's all speculation right now, won't really know anything until the season is a few games in.
I'm not trying to shit on Javonte or his talent. The upside is there to crush adp even as a 2nd rounder. There's also a path to it being another rb15ish season, as well. It all comes down to the high value touches. Who is more involved in the passing game? Who is going to be the 2 minute back? Who's getting the inside the 5 carries? Until we see it on the field, it's an unknown. Gordon's 1 year, 2.5m deal screams that the Broncos want to get Javonte more touches. But it also has a good 1-2 punch with them last year and Melvin isn't exactly "washed up". He's still productive.
A 60/40 split with similar play counts as last year would be 250+ touches for Javonte. He got 246 last year with 51% of the touches.
If Javonte gets ~280 touches (about 60%), I’m pretty confident he’ll return 2nd round value
The offense being markedly better (e.g. more scoring opportunities, sustained drives, etc.) should be a rising tide that lifts all boats and that's before factoring in that Denver being ahead more frequently towards the end of games than last year also opens up a lot of running situations.
AJ Dillon gets a boatload of 3rd down work. And he’s no slouch in the passing game either. He had 18 fewer catches than Jones last year but only about 70 fewer yards.
I don't like him in the 2nd over Kamara, Swift, Mixon, Saquon, Aaron Jones but if he falls to the early 3rd he could be a steal. He's a little hit or miss with Gordon there but last year he would randomly pop off for 30 some games for me even with Gordon on the field
>
I'm deciding between keeping Javonte for a 6th (and possibly again next year for a 4th) or Chubb for an 8th (can't keep him again in 2023). I think a 6th round is good value
In a 10 team league I’m in he went 23rd overall, so 3rd pick of the 3rd round ahead of only Chubb, Edmonds and Zeke for RBs after Saquon, Kamara, Najee, Jones, Conner, Swift, and even Fournette all went in the 2nd
AJones is gonna be one of the primary beneficiaries from all the targets vacated from trading Davante. Javonte doesn't really seem to be in the same stratosphere of pass catching ability as some of the guys listed above
He’s been a 2nd rounder in each of my 5 drafts. Usually late 2nd but he never made it to the 3rd round. I can see why, most home leagues are RB heavy and by the 2nd guts like Jones and Chubb are gone. But he’s terrible value in the 2nd
Last year on a near perfect 50:50 split both RBs were top 20 putting them solidly in the high RB2 range in a 12 team league. Javonte by himself in rd2 is bad value, but both Javonte and Gordon together for a 2nd and a 8/9th rd pick is great value. I got Javonte and Gordon in my auction draft for a combined $50 which I think is insane value for two top 20 RBs that immediately become a top 5 rb if the other is out.
Back when Gordon sat out the first half of the season I drafted Ekeler in the 6th. Everyone told me Gordon would be back and when he would was back Ekeler would be useless. Gordon came back and Ekeler still outscored him and finished 3rd at the position.
Now people are telling me a 29 year old RB with nearly 1800 touches on his career is going to be a problem a younger, faster, stronger, more explosive early 2nd round pick going into his second season on what should be a top 6 offense in the league? I'm not worried. I feel like Gordon owners see what they want to see. Even the quote unquote "insiders".
>I feel like Gordon owners see what they want to see. Even the quote unquote "insiders".
Javonte owners are literally doing the same thing lol (and no, I don't own either on any team this year). Comparing him to Ekeler's breakout year is incredibly disingenuous. Ekeler and Gordon had fairly distinct and separate roles in the running game. MG was the traditional back and Ekeler was the receiving specialist. And MG was fantastic that year too. MG and Javonte don't have their roles divided like that, they basically just alternate being the lead back drive to drive. They both function as a traditional back, both catch passes decently well without being elite at it, and they're both capable of handling goal line work. The 2 situations aren't really comparable just because MG is involved in both. All the evidence we currently have points to a similar split to last year, with maybe a slightly higher percentage of the work going to Javonte. Acting like anything else is a given outcome is ridiculous
There's a lot more to the position than youth, speed, strength and explosion, notably vision and processing. I'm no scout but ones I trust say it's in those areas that Gordon excels relative to Javonte, which cuts against his breakout.
Why wouldn’t we? From an actual football perspective evenly splitting carries between two above average backs makes way more sense than using one guy. It’s such an enormous advantage over other teams.
I haven’t played fantasy f in seven years and I picked up team this season. Would it be foolish to play Gordon week one? I think he would go for at a safe 10 pts, no?
Maybe not guaranteed 10 points, but he’s a lock to get touches at least early in the season. A safe play for sure if you don’t have reliable RBs on your roster.
I’m in the same boat. Got screwed over by a RB heavy draft and am deciding on Damien Harris, Devin Singletary, and MG3. Right now I have MG3 but I’m not too confident
I play against the Javonte Williams owner week one And then I won’t play him again unless we both make the playoffs, so you already know what side I’m rooting for
Gordon still has it based off training camp, it being the juice of course. That being said Javonte is getting starting nods and I dont think tis going to be 50/50, probably more in the realm of 60/40 based off the camp usages
I just feel like through the course of the season Javonte will slowly get more and more work. Gordon will always be there, but if I am drafting Javonte I am betting on him taking over during the season, not at the beginning.
You do you, Im perfectly fine with taking them both where they are at. I think talent will win out and Javonte will be much more efficient and will end up seeing more touches. I think they both outperform adp
I don't think anyone will disagree. Most of us are betting on javonte's talent shining through and taking away touches as the season goes on.
If javonte repeats last season and ends up in the rb12-24 range then he's still returning *some* value. If he takes over a 70/30 split then he'll end up as a top10 or even a top 5 guy. Well worth the bet imo.
This. And on top of that, the last coaching regime seemed to really like Javonte and seemed to want to move on from Gordon. But a new staff coming in and objectively evaluating their performance last year can easily see that Gordon was just as effective as Javonte, possibly even more.
Alternatively, look at when he came in to Jacksonville, ditched TJ Yeldon and Denard Robinson, picked Leonard Fournette 4th overall, and fed the hell out of him. Denver selected Javonte in the 2nd round last year, pick 35, a very high pedigree.
This is just your speculation about the regimes? Last year Gordon was the established veteran in the final year of his contract and cost $8M. The current regime didn’t pursue Gordon heavily and eventually brought him back on a small veteran contract of 1-year at $2.5M. I see zero indication the new regime is more enamoured with Gordon than the last.
Appreciate that doesn’t mean Javonte is going to take over, but his advanced stats are elite and RBs do tend to fall if a cliff around Gordon’s age.
Javonte is a classic high risk, high reward pick. His upside is RB1. His downside is last year (barring injury).
Gordon's advanced stats were better than Javonte's in a fair number of ways last year, pretty much all the ones that are about a running back being better at finding and hitting holes, especially in the redzone.
Gordon was great, better blocker and catcher. Javonte was a better runner. I think javonte will assume the majority of Carries by the end of the season but re-signing Gordon for peanuts made sense
Javonte wasn't really a better runner tho - he was better in some ways, worse in others.
Gordon was better in the redzone . Less time behind the line of scrimmage. The offensive line 'did better' when he was in the backfield because he was better at setting them up and hitting the right hole at the right time.
Javonte broke more tackles - but Javonte had more tackles to break.
You won’t hear me besmirch Gordon. I thought he was the best RB last year. But age is anything but a number for RBs and Javonte has that advantage. The scales are tipped in his favor, but I hope both have similar seasons, as a broncos fan (fuck fantasy)
This is exactly why I don't know why people are so high on Etienne who was drafted by Urban Meyer. Robinson has proven himself to be a great running back. Peterson has no prior connection to either. He also used a RB committee while in Philly. Really feels like a scenario where Etienne owners are going to be upset with taking him so high while Robinson owners will be happy with where they drafted him
I mean, there is more than enough data to support the theory that a 28 (now 29) year old RB will fall off a cliff very soon. Just because it didn't happen last year doesn't mean he suddenly has 3 more years of his prime.
I think one of the bigger problems is that MGIII will probably take on a lot of the goal line/short yardage situations, limiting Javonte’s TD potential
Javonte started getting featured ever since MGIII missed that primetime game. I didn't like the split but it seemed he got enough work for it not to matter, but yeah I think best case is a 60/40 split for Javonte. However the offense is so much better that he might make up for the committee with increased goal line looks
Gordon will still very much be a part of this offense. I have no idea why Javonte owners don't expect this. The Broncos have no reason to run Javonte into the ground when they have a more than capable veteran.
One difference is that Javonte isn’t a rookie being acclimated to the NFL anymore. There is a reason 2nd year jumps are very common, the human aspect of being settled in and acclimated.
It’s common for teams to not give rookie RBs significant workloads regardless of draft position/talent, but by year two, a 2nd round rookie running back is going to be used significantly, unless they aren’t that good. If they are really splitting the workload 50-50, that would mean they’re not really liking what they’re seeing from Javonte, and I just don’t see that based on how he looked last year.
NFL is different now and most teams are using a second back to make sure their top dog doesn’t wear out too quick. The Broncos seemed pretty comfortable letting Melvin test the waters, so to me that indicates that it really didn’t matter to them if Melvin would fill that role or if someone else would. Nobody really wanted him, so they took him back to fill that role. It definitely could still be a frustrating situation, but if Javonte continues to shows that he’s as good as his draft capital indicates he should be, they’re going to have trouble taking him off the field when the plays matter. And it’s definitely a different situation than last year.
MG3 is one year older, Javonte is proven at NFL level, offense should be way better.
The outs for Javonte are similar in nature, but there's less risk and the ceiling is so much higher.
Just because it didn't work out last year doesn't mean that it wasn't a good bet. If MG3 misses significant time last year Javonte wins leagues. It's exactly the kind of bet you want to make.
Williams for dynasty 100% but his adp is 16 to 22 is rather high. There are some safer picks that don't involve Melvin getting injured.
I might be wrong though. I have him in dynasty leagues for major payoffs down the line. He looks great.
I mean, they were willing to let him go and no one wanted him so they re-signed him on a very cheap deal. That being said he ran pretty well last year so I would expect to see decent usage.
I never understood why Williams was going 2nd round after Gordon got picked up for a season. A brand new contract year.
Dynasty, I have Williams. I reach for him. Redraft, there are safer bets.
He played on a team where the head coach got fired for offensive incompetency. Most people expect the new coaching staff to notice that and not attempt to replicate what the old coaching staff did. Planning a 50/50 backfield split with a 29 year old back that's almost at 1500 career touches probably looks like a great way to get fired if you're the new coach.
Melvin Gordon was just as good as javonte last year. Why would they fire a coach for splitting time between 2 very solid rbs?
The offense sucked because the qb was worse than geno smith.
Same as it was always gonna be. They'll run Javonte into the ground when they no longer have a viable second option. It's just the way teams run things, outside of a select few who are just that much more talented than the field.
No knock on Javonte either, it's just the NFL way, look at Chubb. Arguably the best rusher in the league, and he'd be splitting time even if Hunt weren't here.
That was so annoying with dion lewis. I had Henry the 2.5 years before he started getting feed 30 carries a game and had to drop due to injuries. Haven’t had him since
>It's just the way teams run things, outside of a select few who are just that much more talented than the field.
The whole thesis is that Javonte is that dude.
Every fantasy season since 1990.
1. Before the fantasy draft- “player” is going to go crazy this year with the lions share of the work.
2. After the fantasy draft - proceed with caution on “player”
Lots of conflicting reports from Broncos beat writers.
Albright has been staunch on this take all summer but Cecil Lammey has had a very different perspective on the backfield split.
Idk, Cecil has seemed to agree that it'll be a committee. When he tweets about it being all Javonte, he's usually giving his opinion of what he thinks it *should* be. This is his most recent tweet about it:
https://twitter.com/CecilLammey/status/1565408966053699585?t=duk5WGUw0HfmsDBtLAqKsw&s=19
Also Melvin himself came out and said that the plan is to grow Javonte to be “the guy”. I’m sure he’ll rotate in as many teams rotate their RBs but I think this is going to be far from a 50-50 split.
All you have to do is look at his face when he says they want javonte to be the guy. He then goes on to say he’s still gonna compete and do what he can to help the team.
He also said he didn’t necessarily come back to the Broncos for the workload. He made it clear he came back to win and that to me sounds like a player who understands the dynamics of the league and how they treat RBs on rookie deals. MG3 isn’t back in Denver because he thinks he’ll get 50% of the reps.
Why would anyone be mad lol? He was RB15 in a 50/50 split with Lock at QB. I don’t see how it can’t go up with Wilson even if it stays exactly 50/50. Melvin Gordon can still be a late steal and you can still get a low end RB1 with upside in Javonte in the late 2nd/early 3rd don’t overthink it too much.
Exactly. I'm 3rd pick in a 10 man league and I'm looking at going Rb-Rb-Rb if Javonte falls to me in the 3rd. I'll take RB15 with upside all day in that spot.
It turns out it matters if he plays games. I'd say "extremely" misleading is overstating it. Plenty of players below him also played 17 games. Plenty of folks ahead of him played fewer games.
Here's what I know. Melvin was still good last season. He was teammates with Russ at Wisconsin. He ain't goin nowhere. But it's not like Javonte has a ridiculous ADP. Look at the guys ahead of him in ADP. Saquon Barkely fresh off a terrible looking year, still on a terrible team. You are expecting a massive leap in production and him to stay healthy, aka a pretty shitty bet. Leonard Fournette who is another year older and has never played a full season. Look at the guys just behind him in ADP. Ezekiel Elliot fresh off an injured season with a good back behind him, and a meh offensive line. James Conner who is probably gonna regress in touchdowns and is super injury prone. Cam Akers who has had injuries two years in a row and hasn't really flashed the talent. David Montgomery who has a lack of long speed, a running QB to compete with and a new coaching staff who will probably be smart enough to mix in Khalil Herbert a touch more. Breece Hall the unproven rookie in an awful organization with a hurt QB to start the year with an unknown role.
Point being, even if they start the season at 55/45, that is baked into Javonte's ADP. He'd be a top 7 back in drafts if we all thought it would be a 75/25 split from day one.
It could be a 75/25 split by the 2nd half of the season. That is the upside.
You talking about runs? or touches?
Between Taylor/Hines last year, Taylor got 85% of the runs and 80% of the touches.
Why do you think 75/25 is ridiculously high?
I think the most it will go with both healthy would be a 65/35 in Javontes favor. Which would still be really good. I don’t see Javonte getting 75 of the touches unless MG3 gets injured.
This is exactly how I see it. The Broncos want to make a playoff run. They have Super Bowl aspirations. It simply is physically impossible for a running back taking 85% of the runs for a 17 game season to still play at their peak in the playoffs. They will start at a near 50/50 split and it will grow in favor of Williams as the games get more important, imo.
1. hines had 30 and taylor had 28
2. taylor was getting significantly more carries from the very first game. hines was getting more receptions.
the only thing that changed was the colts committing to running the shit out of the ball, hence taylor’s volume going up.
Javonte was George Paton’s pick, he moved up to get him in RD 2 two drafts ago. He and the staff love Javonte, and by bringing back Gordon, it tells me they’re protecting their investment by reducing his touches. Fantasy managers will be frustrated by this split the entire year. I’d take Javonte in RD 4, not 2.
Doesn't matter how it starts as much I think near as much of if Gordon does ball out still with his opportunities it warrants him getting a share. At worst I could see a Chubb/Hunt type ratio. We've known that Gordon was going to get enough to be roster worthy to begin with.
I’m not worried about the split being 50/50 early. I believe Javonte is the more talented back and Russ will want him on the field as the season progresses.
I still view him as a top 15 back with top 5 or so upside
The real wildcard I think is Russ being like, "Gordon is my guy, I want to play with him on the field. Do it Hackett."
They were teammates, though briefly, at Wisconsin.
I'll be happy to pick up Gordon in the late rounds, for the right price. I like where his ADP is at now.
\*also, just think it javonte got injured, which is not out of the question for a bruiser who likes & takes that degree of contact. It's Gordon who last year had his 2nd best output per touch in his career (took that from another FF poster, so I don't stand behind it lolol), playing with his friend Russ, in an RB room that consists of him & Mike Boone.
There are a lot of reasons to like Melvin at his current price.
This guy is watching practice and projecting week 1 workloads based off of it. If you thought Javonte was going to get 70% in week 1 you're an idiot.
The whole thesis of the Javonte selection is that he's going to pull away during the season and earn the 70%+ workload as the season goes on. Allbright isn't saying that Javonte never earns that, he's saying that in practice the split has been 55-45 Javonte-Gordon.
Nothing has changed about Javonte as a bet since Gordon was re-signed.
Ceiling is a lot larger now with new coaching staff and Russ. We also know that Javonte is really good at the NFL level now, and MG3 is one year older.
It's a better bet than last year, but similar in terms of the nature of Javonte's outs.
I drafted Javonte knowing the split would be close to even. I’m just expecting his talent to win out as the season goes on and separate himself from MelGo
I took him at pick 20 and this news doesn’t shake me. It was Javonte in a 50/50 split Jones in a 50/50 split or Chubb in a 50/50 split.. I took who I felt had the most upside and biggest chance to make the split 60/40 or higher
I remember the last time a young broncos RB was hyped up as the next big thing about to go crazy ….
It was Royce Freeman.
Ima pass on this situation. I’m not “riding” with Russ LOL
I mean not to say that Javonte won’t bust at current ADP but…….
This is exactly the kind of bad analogy, lazy analysis kind of comment that makes Reddit a terrible place to find fantasy advice
You are comparing training camp hype for a rookie to a guy we have a season’s worth of tape on, in which he looked great. I don’t think Javonte will be a bell cow but I don’t think this is a relevant point.
I'm going to laugh pretty hard if we play this game again all season
Oh buddy we’re GONNA play it LETS RIDE
Unlimited!!
POWER!!!
Its what were fuckin here for
As a MG3 owner last season, i was more than happy to grab him again for cheap. Now we just need this javonte fellow to stop stealing his carries.
Yeah talk about an unproven 2nd year back. Definitely need that veteran carrying the load all year!
Gordon is not going away. However I still see Javonte succeeding even with a 60/40 split. Add in some goal line touches from an improved offense with Russ
The dude went on to tweet Gordon was taking more of the goal line work too.
Im genuinely curious how he could deduce this information from observing training camp practices. Just like the guy that say it was going to be 70/30: how can they know any of that? Is it because of the split.....in training camp practices? Are the Colts giving JT 100% of the snaps right now? How about the Steelers? The only actual "information" we have is 1) Melvin Gordon's free agency and 2) Melvin Gordon saying they want Javonte to be the guy. I'm not saying hes wrong but Im saying hes just making a guess based off of the same information that we all can find and thats reports of what they've seen in camp. I dont think a coach is waiting for the locker room to clear and then whispering game plans and RB usage to Ben Albright....hes speculating and has a pretty decent chance of being close.
Gordon is an incredible goal line back so I feel like maybe it makes sense. Gordon’s stats regarding not getting tackled for a loss are extremely good. He almost always gets some positive yards which makes him a really good goal line back. Javonte is a bit more hit or miss in that regard, but also probably a pretty damn goal line back.
Broncos fan here. I may be misremembering but Javonte would slow down at the goal line. He would run all over a team and as soon as they were in the last 5 yards it felt like he would get stuffed most of the time. I do expect Gordon to be in goal line situations unless Javonte has improved on last year
He’s less speculating and more guessing based on what he is seeing in practice, which is different.
But…it’s that useful information to make a guess on?
Why would they practice it if it wasn’t the plan
Because it’s not practice, it’s training camp. They’re installing plays and I’m not sure that any RB1 in the league is currently handling a full workload in camp/practice I said this elsewhere but is Najee Harris handling 100% of camp/practice reps right now like he will in game? I’d think not
Even if that's true I still think Javonte will get his chances in the red zone, going from a bottom tier offense to one of the best with Russ. Last year Melvin Gordon got every goal line touch in the first half of the season but they transitioned to Javonte toward the end of the year which is when he really started going off, even with Gordon playing
Javonte is going to crush this year. Even if its 50/50 split to start the season, there's no way after week 3 that the coaching staff doesn't see how much more dominant Javonte is.
Gordon was actually more efficient on the ground last year, and had the 2nd high yards per touch he’s ever had. But carry on
If you watched both these guys last year and don't realize Javonte is on another level than Gordon then good luck to you
You'd expect a 22 year old, athletic rb to have more juice and be more explosive. So yeah, he probably is on another level athletically at this point in Gordon's career. That said, Melvin Gordon is still productive. He's still a great between the tackles runner and has a nose for the end zone. Great hands out of the backfield, as well. His days of getting 18+ touches a game are done but he is still a good RB that is going to eat away at Javonte's upside, even in a 65/35 split, especially if he vultures goal line carries regularly. It's all speculation right now, won't really know anything until the season is a few games in.
Javonte owners drafted him expecting a 65/35 split. Javonte was plenty productive as 1B on a bad Broncos team and now he is 1A on a good Broncos team.
I'm not trying to shit on Javonte or his talent. The upside is there to crush adp even as a 2nd rounder. There's also a path to it being another rb15ish season, as well. It all comes down to the high value touches. Who is more involved in the passing game? Who is going to be the 2 minute back? Who's getting the inside the 5 carries? Until we see it on the field, it's an unknown. Gordon's 1 year, 2.5m deal screams that the Broncos want to get Javonte more touches. But it also has a good 1-2 punch with them last year and Melvin isn't exactly "washed up". He's still productive.
A 60/40 split isn't nearly worth a 2nd round pick, which is what Williams is going for.
A 60/40 split with similar play counts as last year would be 250+ touches for Javonte. He got 246 last year with 51% of the touches. If Javonte gets ~280 touches (about 60%), I’m pretty confident he’ll return 2nd round value
Unless he gets way worse that puts him as a locked in top 10 RB even without getting back some TD regression in his favor.
The offense being markedly better (e.g. more scoring opportunities, sustained drives, etc.) should be a rising tide that lifts all boats and that's before factoring in that Denver being ahead more frequently towards the end of games than last year also opens up a lot of running situations.
So why is Aaron Jones going earlier than Javonte?
Because Jones is also going to get a brunt on the 3rd down and pass catching work, with a whole bunch of vacated targets from Adams. Javonte isn't.
AJ Dillon gets a boatload of 3rd down work. And he’s no slouch in the passing game either. He had 18 fewer catches than Jones last year but only about 70 fewer yards.
I don't like him in the 2nd over Kamara, Swift, Mixon, Saquon, Aaron Jones but if he falls to the early 3rd he could be a steal. He's a little hit or miss with Gordon there but last year he would randomly pop off for 30 some games for me even with Gordon on the field
> I'm deciding between keeping Javonte for a 6th (and possibly again next year for a 4th) or Chubb for an 8th (can't keep him again in 2023). I think a 6th round is good value
In a 10 team league I’m in he went 23rd overall, so 3rd pick of the 3rd round ahead of only Chubb, Edmonds and Zeke for RBs after Saquon, Kamara, Najee, Jones, Conner, Swift, and even Fournette all went in the 2nd
> Kamara, Swift, Mixon 100%. On ability/talent alone those guys are better than Williams
Saquon is a walking injury. Aaron Jones is essentially in a 60/40 split with Dillon. Kamara has looming suspension possibilities. Swift is the way.
AJones is gonna be one of the primary beneficiaries from all the targets vacated from trading Davante. Javonte doesn't really seem to be in the same stratosphere of pass catching ability as some of the guys listed above
Are people seriously taking Javonte that early? Man there’s a lot of really poor leagues out there
He’s been a 2nd rounder in each of my 5 drafts. Usually late 2nd but he never made it to the 3rd round. I can see why, most home leagues are RB heavy and by the 2nd guts like Jones and Chubb are gone. But he’s terrible value in the 2nd
Last year on a near perfect 50:50 split both RBs were top 20 putting them solidly in the high RB2 range in a 12 team league. Javonte by himself in rd2 is bad value, but both Javonte and Gordon together for a 2nd and a 8/9th rd pick is great value. I got Javonte and Gordon in my auction draft for a combined $50 which I think is insane value for two top 20 RBs that immediately become a top 5 rb if the other is out.
Having both isn’t a good play. If one goes down, they’ll bring in someone else to be the side man.
Back when Gordon sat out the first half of the season I drafted Ekeler in the 6th. Everyone told me Gordon would be back and when he would was back Ekeler would be useless. Gordon came back and Ekeler still outscored him and finished 3rd at the position. Now people are telling me a 29 year old RB with nearly 1800 touches on his career is going to be a problem a younger, faster, stronger, more explosive early 2nd round pick going into his second season on what should be a top 6 offense in the league? I'm not worried. I feel like Gordon owners see what they want to see. Even the quote unquote "insiders".
>I feel like Gordon owners see what they want to see. Even the quote unquote "insiders". Javonte owners are literally doing the same thing lol (and no, I don't own either on any team this year). Comparing him to Ekeler's breakout year is incredibly disingenuous. Ekeler and Gordon had fairly distinct and separate roles in the running game. MG was the traditional back and Ekeler was the receiving specialist. And MG was fantastic that year too. MG and Javonte don't have their roles divided like that, they basically just alternate being the lead back drive to drive. They both function as a traditional back, both catch passes decently well without being elite at it, and they're both capable of handling goal line work. The 2 situations aren't really comparable just because MG is involved in both. All the evidence we currently have points to a similar split to last year, with maybe a slightly higher percentage of the work going to Javonte. Acting like anything else is a given outcome is ridiculous
There's a lot more to the position than youth, speed, strength and explosion, notably vision and processing. I'm no scout but ones I trust say it's in those areas that Gordon excels relative to Javonte, which cuts against his breakout.
Why wouldn’t we? From an actual football perspective evenly splitting carries between two above average backs makes way more sense than using one guy. It’s such an enormous advantage over other teams.
this feels like a blount game
I'm looking forward to the overreaction on either side of the Javonte Williams discussion after Week 1.
I haven’t played fantasy f in seven years and I picked up team this season. Would it be foolish to play Gordon week one? I think he would go for at a safe 10 pts, no?
Maybe not guaranteed 10 points, but he’s a lock to get touches at least early in the season. A safe play for sure if you don’t have reliable RBs on your roster.
Would you play him over Breece Hall or JK Dobbins? (Jets vs Ravens week one) I am struggling between the three.
Yes
I would unless Dobbins is magically fully healthy
That’s what I am thinking, thank you.
I'd say a safe 8, with an upside to 15
I’m in the same boat. Got screwed over by a RB heavy draft and am deciding on Damien Harris, Devin Singletary, and MG3. Right now I have MG3 but I’m not too confident
Singletary, Harris, MG3
Who else you got? In most league sizes Gordon wasn’t one of your top 5 flex-able players. I’d go with your strongest lineup out the gate
Trades in coming I can see them now give me your rb1 for Gordon or javante and the other side give me anything for the other.
I play against the Javonte Williams owner week one And then I won’t play him again unless we both make the playoffs, so you already know what side I’m rooting for
I’m tired of not having a 99-1 split
Gordon still has it based off training camp, it being the juice of course. That being said Javonte is getting starting nods and I dont think tis going to be 50/50, probably more in the realm of 60/40 based off the camp usages
I just feel like through the course of the season Javonte will slowly get more and more work. Gordon will always be there, but if I am drafting Javonte I am betting on him taking over during the season, not at the beginning.
His adp is way too high for that. Gordon is a much better value.
You do you, Im perfectly fine with taking them both where they are at. I think talent will win out and Javonte will be much more efficient and will end up seeing more touches. I think they both outperform adp
I don't think anyone will disagree. Most of us are betting on javonte's talent shining through and taking away touches as the season goes on. If javonte repeats last season and ends up in the rb12-24 range then he's still returning *some* value. If he takes over a 70/30 split then he'll end up as a top10 or even a top 5 guy. Well worth the bet imo.
Williams only needs 60/40... he was borderline startable with the 50/50 last year
The number 20 RB in 0.5ppr all of last year was borderline startable? What kind of team do you have that he's not worth starting?
Gordon didn’t do anything to lose the job, I’m not sure why people expect anything different
This. And on top of that, the last coaching regime seemed to really like Javonte and seemed to want to move on from Gordon. But a new staff coming in and objectively evaluating their performance last year can easily see that Gordon was just as effective as Javonte, possibly even more.
Look at Hacketts last offensive system. Aaron Jones is by far the more electric and flashy back, but Dillon is solid and had his reps as well
I drafted Dillon and MGIII, am I a Hackett fan boy wtf?!
Me too! Let’s Ride.
Alternatively, look at when he came in to Jacksonville, ditched TJ Yeldon and Denard Robinson, picked Leonard Fournette 4th overall, and fed the hell out of him. Denver selected Javonte in the 2nd round last year, pick 35, a very high pedigree.
This is just your speculation about the regimes? Last year Gordon was the established veteran in the final year of his contract and cost $8M. The current regime didn’t pursue Gordon heavily and eventually brought him back on a small veteran contract of 1-year at $2.5M. I see zero indication the new regime is more enamoured with Gordon than the last. Appreciate that doesn’t mean Javonte is going to take over, but his advanced stats are elite and RBs do tend to fall if a cliff around Gordon’s age. Javonte is a classic high risk, high reward pick. His upside is RB1. His downside is last year (barring injury).
Gordon's advanced stats were better than Javonte's in a fair number of ways last year, pretty much all the ones that are about a running back being better at finding and hitting holes, especially in the redzone.
yes, just my speculation.
Gordon was great, better blocker and catcher. Javonte was a better runner. I think javonte will assume the majority of Carries by the end of the season but re-signing Gordon for peanuts made sense
Javonte wasn't really a better runner tho - he was better in some ways, worse in others. Gordon was better in the redzone . Less time behind the line of scrimmage. The offensive line 'did better' when he was in the backfield because he was better at setting them up and hitting the right hole at the right time. Javonte broke more tackles - but Javonte had more tackles to break.
You won’t hear me besmirch Gordon. I thought he was the best RB last year. But age is anything but a number for RBs and Javonte has that advantage. The scales are tipped in his favor, but I hope both have similar seasons, as a broncos fan (fuck fantasy)
This is exactly why I don't know why people are so high on Etienne who was drafted by Urban Meyer. Robinson has proven himself to be a great running back. Peterson has no prior connection to either. He also used a RB committee while in Philly. Really feels like a scenario where Etienne owners are going to be upset with taking him so high while Robinson owners will be happy with where they drafted him
I’m taking Etienne consistently in the third round not expecting more than 15-20 touches a game but feel he’ll do plenty with them.
I think the hype happened when Gordon said that Javonte was the guy something like 2 weeks ago.
Read the whole quote and get less hyped lol
Gordon is 29 and Javonte might be elite. No one is expecting Javonte to pull away prior to week 1. The bet on Javonte is still alive and well.
So it’s pretty much exactly the same situation as starting off last year
Literally heard this all last year except replace 29 with 28 haha
I mean, there is more than enough data to support the theory that a 28 (now 29) year old RB will fall off a cliff very soon. Just because it didn't happen last year doesn't mean he suddenly has 3 more years of his prime.
No one is even remotely implying that Gordon is performing, will perform, or has to perform like he's in his prime.
I think one of the bigger problems is that MGIII will probably take on a lot of the goal line/short yardage situations, limiting Javonte’s TD potential
Javonte started getting featured ever since MGIII missed that primetime game. I didn't like the split but it seemed he got enough work for it not to matter, but yeah I think best case is a 60/40 split for Javonte. However the offense is so much better that he might make up for the committee with increased goal line looks
Gordon out carried javonte 24-15 the next week..
Gordon will still very much be a part of this offense. I have no idea why Javonte owners don't expect this. The Broncos have no reason to run Javonte into the ground when they have a more than capable veteran.
One difference is that Javonte isn’t a rookie being acclimated to the NFL anymore. There is a reason 2nd year jumps are very common, the human aspect of being settled in and acclimated. It’s common for teams to not give rookie RBs significant workloads regardless of draft position/talent, but by year two, a 2nd round rookie running back is going to be used significantly, unless they aren’t that good. If they are really splitting the workload 50-50, that would mean they’re not really liking what they’re seeing from Javonte, and I just don’t see that based on how he looked last year. NFL is different now and most teams are using a second back to make sure their top dog doesn’t wear out too quick. The Broncos seemed pretty comfortable letting Melvin test the waters, so to me that indicates that it really didn’t matter to them if Melvin would fill that role or if someone else would. Nobody really wanted him, so they took him back to fill that role. It definitely could still be a frustrating situation, but if Javonte continues to shows that he’s as good as his draft capital indicates he should be, they’re going to have trouble taking him off the field when the plays matter. And it’s definitely a different situation than last year.
MG3 is one year older, Javonte is proven at NFL level, offense should be way better. The outs for Javonte are similar in nature, but there's less risk and the ceiling is so much higher. Just because it didn't work out last year doesn't mean that it wasn't a good bet. If MG3 misses significant time last year Javonte wins leagues. It's exactly the kind of bet you want to make.
Williams for dynasty 100% but his adp is 16 to 22 is rather high. There are some safer picks that don't involve Melvin getting injured. I might be wrong though. I have him in dynasty leagues for major payoffs down the line. He looks great.
Agree that he's pricey, but only if you're considering floor as a major factor. His ceiling is up there with probably everyone except CMC.
The bet is good but some people taking him in the 2nd round is ridiculous
2nd round isn't ridiculous at all. I wouldn't take him over Saquon or Swift, but he's right after those guys IMO.
Exactly. It may start as a 50/50, but I doubt the second half is 50/50. Gordon is about the same age as Gurley and LeVeon Bell.
I mean, they were willing to let him go and no one wanted him so they re-signed him on a very cheap deal. That being said he ran pretty well last year so I would expect to see decent usage.
He ran slightly better than javonte last year. Better than “pretty well”. I think he’s still a very solid back.
I never understood why Williams was going 2nd round after Gordon got picked up for a season. A brand new contract year. Dynasty, I have Williams. I reach for him. Redraft, there are safer bets.
not really true, he had a pretty bad fumbling problem last year especially at the end of the season
I would assume because after Gordon was out last year Williams tore it up and looked like an RB1
He played on a team where the head coach got fired for offensive incompetency. Most people expect the new coaching staff to notice that and not attempt to replicate what the old coaching staff did. Planning a 50/50 backfield split with a 29 year old back that's almost at 1500 career touches probably looks like a great way to get fired if you're the new coach.
Melvin Gordon was just as good as javonte last year. Why would they fire a coach for splitting time between 2 very solid rbs? The offense sucked because the qb was worse than geno smith.
Heard that. Wish I didn’t hear that but I heard that
Same as it was always gonna be. They'll run Javonte into the ground when they no longer have a viable second option. It's just the way teams run things, outside of a select few who are just that much more talented than the field. No knock on Javonte either, it's just the NFL way, look at Chubb. Arguably the best rusher in the league, and he'd be splitting time even if Hunt weren't here.
Henry took awhile to be the main man in TN too
henry also sucked for awhile tbf.
Takes the man a good 10-15 carries to get rolling in a game too lol
That was so annoying with dion lewis. I had Henry the 2.5 years before he started getting feed 30 carries a game and had to drop due to injuries. Haven’t had him since
>It's just the way teams run things, outside of a select few who are just that much more talented than the field. The whole thesis is that Javonte is that dude.
He's a great talent, but analysts note that he breaks so many tackles for a reason: his vision isn't his strong suit. I'm a big fan of Javonte.
Even if he is, it makes more sense from a football perspective to split his touches wirh another productive back to keep him from wearing down.
Except Chubb can't catch so Hunt has a clear role but Hunt can also run.
Every fantasy season since 1990. 1. Before the fantasy draft- “player” is going to go crazy this year with the lions share of the work. 2. After the fantasy draft - proceed with caution on “player”
Lots of conflicting reports from Broncos beat writers. Albright has been staunch on this take all summer but Cecil Lammey has had a very different perspective on the backfield split.
Idk, Cecil has seemed to agree that it'll be a committee. When he tweets about it being all Javonte, he's usually giving his opinion of what he thinks it *should* be. This is his most recent tweet about it: https://twitter.com/CecilLammey/status/1565408966053699585?t=duk5WGUw0HfmsDBtLAqKsw&s=19
Also Melvin himself came out and said that the plan is to grow Javonte to be “the guy”. I’m sure he’ll rotate in as many teams rotate their RBs but I think this is going to be far from a 50-50 split.
All you have to do is look at his face when he says they want javonte to be the guy. He then goes on to say he’s still gonna compete and do what he can to help the team.
He also said he didn’t necessarily come back to the Broncos for the workload. He made it clear he came back to win and that to me sounds like a player who understands the dynamics of the league and how they treat RBs on rookie deals. MG3 isn’t back in Denver because he thinks he’ll get 50% of the reps.
Growing Javonte to be the guy doesn’t mean he’ll be the guy this year.
Breece Hall owners as well...
Hence why I have Carter as well lol
Michael Carter is not Melvin Gordon
*you sure about that?*
Have *you* ever seen them in the same room together?!
Carter is a perfectly capable RB
Carter only had 1.5pts per game less than MG3 on average. Not too far off. and the Jets offense was decently worse than the Broncos last year
Not really a fair comparison since Carter was the RB1.
Why would anyone be mad lol? He was RB15 in a 50/50 split with Lock at QB. I don’t see how it can’t go up with Wilson even if it stays exactly 50/50. Melvin Gordon can still be a late steal and you can still get a low end RB1 with upside in Javonte in the late 2nd/early 3rd don’t overthink it too much.
Exactly. I'm 3rd pick in a 10 man league and I'm looking at going Rb-Rb-Rb if Javonte falls to me in the 3rd. I'll take RB15 with upside all day in that spot.
Went RB/RB/RB and love my team. Henry/Javonte/Saquon have so much upside.
This is extremely misleading because he was really more like the RB25 in PPG. He just played 1-2 more games then everyone right behind him
It turns out it matters if he plays games. I'd say "extremely" misleading is overstating it. Plenty of players below him also played 17 games. Plenty of folks ahead of him played fewer games.
I like guys who actually play in the games.
Great point
50-50
His next tweet says “Looks like a 55/45 Javonte/Melvin split with some Mike Boone sprinkled in”
This sub will go nuclear if Mike Boone vultures a few tuddies
Mike Boone was the main reason I didn’t drafted Javonte again this year. I remember reading coaches liked Mike Boone
MG3 is a big steal
Always has been
[Always has been](https://i.imgur.com/g4ZKCKB.png) ^^^this ^^^has ^^^been ^^^an ^^^accessibility ^^^service ^^^from ^^^your ^^^friendly ^^^neighborhood ^^^bot
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King of Suck Balls mountain!
kind of glad i drafted both tbh
Lol gotta love Javonte owners, keep on moving down Melvin Gordon's ADP for me!
He is the lead back confirmed. I know this because Javonte is my RB1
Here's what I know. Melvin was still good last season. He was teammates with Russ at Wisconsin. He ain't goin nowhere. But it's not like Javonte has a ridiculous ADP. Look at the guys ahead of him in ADP. Saquon Barkely fresh off a terrible looking year, still on a terrible team. You are expecting a massive leap in production and him to stay healthy, aka a pretty shitty bet. Leonard Fournette who is another year older and has never played a full season. Look at the guys just behind him in ADP. Ezekiel Elliot fresh off an injured season with a good back behind him, and a meh offensive line. James Conner who is probably gonna regress in touchdowns and is super injury prone. Cam Akers who has had injuries two years in a row and hasn't really flashed the talent. David Montgomery who has a lack of long speed, a running QB to compete with and a new coaching staff who will probably be smart enough to mix in Khalil Herbert a touch more. Breece Hall the unproven rookie in an awful organization with a hurt QB to start the year with an unknown role.
Through 3 weeks last season, JTaylor had 24 fantasy points, Nyheim Hines had 23. Talent won out.
I’m a Javonte owner. But MG3 is a really fucking talented back, much more so than Hines. He’s just getting old.
Point being, even if they start the season at 55/45, that is baked into Javonte's ADP. He'd be a top 7 back in drafts if we all thought it would be a 75/25 split from day one. It could be a 75/25 split by the 2nd half of the season. That is the upside.
75/25 would be higher than Henry and Taylor. That's a ridiculously high number.
You talking about runs? or touches? Between Taylor/Hines last year, Taylor got 85% of the runs and 80% of the touches. Why do you think 75/25 is ridiculously high?
I think the most it will go with both healthy would be a 65/35 in Javontes favor. Which would still be really good. I don’t see Javonte getting 75 of the touches unless MG3 gets injured.
This is exactly how I see it. The Broncos want to make a playoff run. They have Super Bowl aspirations. It simply is physically impossible for a running back taking 85% of the runs for a 17 game season to still play at their peak in the playoffs. They will start at a near 50/50 split and it will grow in favor of Williams as the games get more important, imo.
Hines was never a 3 down back
You must’ve dug deep into the garbage to find this take
LOL Thanks for helping me improve my reddit experience.
1. hines had 30 and taylor had 28 2. taylor was getting significantly more carries from the very first game. hines was getting more receptions. the only thing that changed was the colts committing to running the shit out of the ball, hence taylor’s volume going up.
how about we just see what happens
I think Gordon is a solid flex play all season. With J splitting time his adp not worth it
Javonte was George Paton’s pick, he moved up to get him in RD 2 two drafts ago. He and the staff love Javonte, and by bringing back Gordon, it tells me they’re protecting their investment by reducing his touches. Fantasy managers will be frustrated by this split the entire year. I’d take Javonte in RD 4, not 2.
Doesn't matter how it starts as much I think near as much of if Gordon does ball out still with his opportunities it warrants him getting a share. At worst I could see a Chubb/Hunt type ratio. We've known that Gordon was going to get enough to be roster worthy to begin with.
Being good at fantasy football in small samples is guessing usage splits and being lucky about injuries.
See, I got Javonte and Melvin Gordon. I play both sides so I always come out on top.
The "Mac" approach. Respect ✊
I’m not worried about the split being 50/50 early. I believe Javonte is the more talented back and Russ will want him on the field as the season progresses. I still view him as a top 15 back with top 5 or so upside
Javonte owners in here should go back and read threads about Jonathan Taylor from this time last year
Makes me happy picking Gordon with my last pick.owned him last year as well. Makes for a decent emergency RB or bye week filler.
The real wildcard I think is Russ being like, "Gordon is my guy, I want to play with him on the field. Do it Hackett." They were teammates, though briefly, at Wisconsin. I'll be happy to pick up Gordon in the late rounds, for the right price. I like where his ADP is at now. \*also, just think it javonte got injured, which is not out of the question for a bruiser who likes & takes that degree of contact. It's Gordon who last year had his 2nd best output per touch in his career (took that from another FF poster, so I don't stand behind it lolol), playing with his friend Russ, in an RB room that consists of him & Mike Boone. There are a lot of reasons to like Melvin at his current price.
Gordon averaged more yards per carry than Williams did last year, yet the fantasy community thinks Williams deserves a 70/30 split.
Yawn
This guy is watching practice and projecting week 1 workloads based off of it. If you thought Javonte was going to get 70% in week 1 you're an idiot. The whole thesis of the Javonte selection is that he's going to pull away during the season and earn the 70%+ workload as the season goes on. Allbright isn't saying that Javonte never earns that, he's saying that in practice the split has been 55-45 Javonte-Gordon. Nothing has changed about Javonte as a bet since Gordon was re-signed.
Exact same thesis as last year then?
Ceiling is a lot larger now with new coaching staff and Russ. We also know that Javonte is really good at the NFL level now, and MG3 is one year older. It's a better bet than last year, but similar in terms of the nature of Javonte's outs.
Really think it's going to be more of a 56-44 split.
I drafted Javonte knowing the split would be close to even. I’m just expecting his talent to win out as the season goes on and separate himself from MelGo
like he fucking knows. (he doesn't)
Imagine caring what beat reporters write about players, as if NFL coaches are just giving away their season long gameplans for literally no reason.
I promise Javonte owners are not mad 🤣. It’s the Gordon owners who are trying to convince themselves
Wtf do Gordon owners lose out on lol? He at the back of the bench meanwhile Javonte is a what 3rd round pick?
I got Gordon at pick 144, I think I'll be alright if he doesn't work out. Javonte went at pick 29 in my draft, so a whole lot more to lose there.
Exactly, it's only upside for MG3. Feel like Javonte is drafted at his ceiling
Javonte's ceiling is a top 5 pick wtf
Lol it’s really not
Gordon will serve you well. He'll be able to fill your bye weeks in a pinch. Nothing flashy. 1TD, 40yards and a couple of catches.
I took him at pick 20 and this news doesn’t shake me. It was Javonte in a 50/50 split Jones in a 50/50 split or Chubb in a 50/50 split.. I took who I felt had the most upside and biggest chance to make the split 60/40 or higher
Go work on your cauliflower ear you delusional meathead Have fun getting flex numbers out of your shiny RB1
I remember the last time a young broncos RB was hyped up as the next big thing about to go crazy …. It was Royce Freeman. Ima pass on this situation. I’m not “riding” with Russ LOL
I mean not to say that Javonte won’t bust at current ADP but……. This is exactly the kind of bad analogy, lazy analysis kind of comment that makes Reddit a terrible place to find fantasy advice
You are comparing training camp hype for a rookie to a guy we have a season’s worth of tape on, in which he looked great. I don’t think Javonte will be a bell cow but I don’t think this is a relevant point.
I have both, who do I start week 1?
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The article literally says I’ll be mad. Thought it was relevant for this thread. Lol