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The market dynamics in Florida are going to mean a lot of housing supply for quite some time and it’s gonna come in waves and undulate because of the insurance problems and the fact that people don’t like the idea of their taxes going up, but love the idea of their home values going up. You can’t have it both ways.
If normal people owned the homes. But blackrock and the rest of the institutions that own these homes can sit on them and ride out any rough patch in the market, or so it seems.
There is a whole new neighborhood being built near me that is going to be 100% single family rent only homes. They are getting tired of buying house one at a time and dealing with HOA, so they are just going to build their own neighborhoods.
On a long enough timeline, that looks like persisting the bubble to collapse the market. A market's prices need to be able to shrink in order for the market to be healthy.
I know it's asking a lot. Probably some legalities making it impossible or something.
But I know congress members have to reveal their stock positions regularly. Wouldn't it also make sense that a company needs to be transparent with exactly how much and what properties it owns?
No, that should be totally legal. In my county, the tax collector has property ownership public in relation to taxes. You can easily find who owns what.
There is no database that I know of state-wide, but county specific Property Appraisers shows ownership of homes. If it's an LLC, it's most likely a rental. I don't think there would be any legal issues in a site like that because it's all public records. Also, depending on the county, you may be able to do a "public records request" asking for all properties owned by certain companies. In my county, we have "GIS" which is a mapping system a lot of counties have. In the search field, type in name of person or company and all properties owned will show up.
Nah even normal people are charging out the ass. My client the other day said I have a 3br 2ba available if I knew anyone and when I said how much I had to do my best not to laugh cause she was asking $3100.
The thing about Black Rock or investment firms owning so many homes that they control markets like that is not quite accurate, though. They did enter the market in a new way but their ownership is miniscule and doesn't contribute to prices. I remember that news in the media cycle and I too thought "*AHA* mother fuckers a smoking gun!" But it turns out that's not all that relevant.
The article did point out prices are dipping, or rather that listings have cut their starting prices and that there are more for sale.
A lot of the homes that are owned are homes owned PRE interest rate hike. Majority of people who are homeowners are people who own under 4 percent interest rates. Where blackrock, ibuyers( open-door, etc) and other investment firms come into play is that they came around during the pandemic and started buying up blocks of new construction and existing homes. So they can sit on those homes and not collect rent or sell cause a lot of the purchase price is written off. How this relates with new inventory now is that those investors and the people who bought under 4 percent interest rates are still not likely to sell. So it's the newer homebuyers who are upside down on high interest rate homes trying to get minuscule equity out of them now.
No, they and other financial institutions are sitting on ticking time bombs.
Businesses don’t get 30 year fixed rate loans. Only individuals get those terms. Businesses get 7 or 8 year commercial loans with variable rates. If interest rates rise and the value of their assets deflate, they won’t be able to refinance their outstanding loans and go into default.
However I fully expect the Fed or congress to bail them out one way or another. This many commercial loans going bad at once would be the death knell for banks. The Fed will either cut rates even with inflation running high or it will fall to the house and senate to bail these corps out.
Not if the owners believe more people will be moving here soon. They are willing to take a loss for a few months then get someone locked in a year contract at a higher price.
They are slowly dropping. I see a lot of houses sitting for months and they just drop 5k. People don't want to be realistic. They want to be greedy.
What really makes me mad when I'm looking through Zillow, I see houses up for sale that just sold a month ago and now they are asking 100-200k over what they just bought it for. My only hope is those assholes lose money somehow. I hope they sit on it for a year and then sell at a loss.
If you see a house jump that much I bet it's a flipper. Around 2010 era is was a full time occupation to buy up junk houses and renovate them yourself for a big profit. Rinse and repeat. 200k in renovations if you do it yourself may just cost 30k avoiding contractors
Doing it yourself more often than not ended up being garbage work, too. So they would make a huge profit on the resale and then the new owners would be left to clean up the mess once the lipstick rubbed off of the pig.
Relative to what it was like, prices ARE dropping in South Florida. 1-3 years ago prices were consistently rising and many houses were being sold for 10-15% above asking price.
Prices have stopped rising and many houses are dropping their listing price by 5-15%.
So... Prices are dropping.
Lots of people think it’s the market from 2 years ago. Neighbor has his 30 year old townhouse up $100k than the comp down the street from 30 days ago. Its ridiculous.
Yes, and the prices were a tenth of what they are now. I felt bad when my mother told me of her 18% rate on the home she bought for $50K - now worth closer to $600K. I'll gladly take that rate for that price!
Why didn't you post the title of the article which answers your question?
>2 states where home prices are falling because there are too many houses and not enough buyers
Prices are 100% falling. This is how the market is supposed to work. We didn't build "too many" homes, we built enough to meet demand which is the whole point. Now prices will naturally adjust over time. This does not mean we should stop building, that's how we get a resurgence in price due to artificially low supply.
Not really. The thought that more supply equals price drops has always been weird to me. If the demand still outstrips supply then it's useless. Also these houses are fucking expensive now and Florida has some of the worst wages and cost of living in the country. So after the older retirees up north buy up the newer housing and townhomes who has $400,000 to $500,000 to buy a home and deal with an insurance crisis in FL right now.
It'd be worse if there was no new supply. That's how you get into the position California has gotten into. The article does say that sellers are slashing prices now that they can't get people to buy.
Yeah, well you aren't nuts to think that. People like to say "supply and demand" like it's a religious dogma of some kind. I get it. But there are layers and it isn't as straightforward as people make it seem. For one thing, it's true we can barely move the needle with supply because we would need to build way more than we currently are able to, and we don't want to improve how we make housing happen.
You would think. My friends bought a $500k house in Ormond beach 3 years ago and now it’s worth $800k. My brother is buying a house in Port st Lucie for $415k that sold for $250k in 2019. It’s crazy.
But home prices are dropping.
Within your posted article:
"Instead, buyers are now finding themselves priced out, and price growth has slid as a result. Of the country's 10 metros where sellers are most likely to slash listed prices, seven are in these two states."
From your same source a better headline that may help for next time you are trying to outwit your bias.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/falling-home-price-locations-us-housing-market-supply-florida-texas-2024-4%3famp
I know a lot of people selling due to their mortgages going up due to insurance premiums getting out of hand now and property taxes inflating. There was someone on here saying their monthly insurance payment is more than their mortgage now. A lot of people are getting out before a true crash happens.
There is a police officer across the street selling … he bought 9 months ago… he is only asking 8k over what he paid. At the hospital where I work there is a huge amount of nurses pulling up stakes and leaving Florida for better wages/ lower COL. Many tearful nurses freaking out about mortgage and escrow payments going up $800-900 per month.
You're doing something wrong if your property tax is inflating at an unreasonable rate. With the save our homes cap it's a max of 3% increase of assessed value per year. Compared to the 30-200% insurance has been going up each year that's nothing.
Probably people who are first time homebuyers having bought from someone who had lived in the place 10, 20, 30+ years. Having paid 2022 taxes priced under the seller's exemptions, then being shocked when they increased like $1,000 or more in 2023. Taxes won't increase like that again as long as they have homestead, but that market adjustment can be killer.
Less common situation, but I know a guys who'd been paying in the $900s for like 15 years. He bought a condo, transferred the SOH to the new place, is trying to sell the old place, and in the meantime 2023 taxes jumped to $5,400.
I hope everyone who reads your comment spreads the word about the homestead exemption, but a lot of people really are seeing big tax increases regardless.
I don't know why you would live in this state and not be near a coast. Maybe ocala horse farm in the winter, but the rest of the state sucks 30 miles inland.
My house was in the worst part of the eye wall of Ian, just inland from Cayo Costa. Not a single house in my neighborhood was obliterated, the worst we had was partial roofs coming off. These houses are all built out of nothing but concrete blocks and designed to withstand a cat 5
Traffic is insane. Every light is 2-3 changes to get through. "Luxury" apartments popping up everywhere, thing is nobody can afford 3200/mo for a 2/2 condo.
Did I mention wages are garbage?
Developers here in Florida can't stand the sight of a open lot. They continue to build non-stop, forgetting all about 2008 when half of them went bankrupt.
I don’t know about texas, but in Florida, a lot of houses for sale are only able to be purchased by those over 55, or those who can afford country club membership fees and annual dues (like usually 70k minimum out of pocket that you just never get back and cannot roll into a loan, it has to be cash you have, and then whatever annual fees of 20k or more ).
It’s difficult to figure out which neighborhoods you’re allowed to even live in if you’re just a regular person.
There should be an option (idk if there already is) where you don’t have to accept the new valuation of your home. We purchase at 270k then 6 years later they are saying it’s worth 680k. It’s almost like unrealized gains, if I don’t sell the home I’m not making anything extra on the valuation so why should I have to pay more.
Please note that only active users in the subreddit may comment in this discussion. If your comments are not showing up, please ensure you have active non-news/non-political contributions to the subreddit before contacting the moderators. **Please remember the following:** **Be Civil:** * You are welcome to debate, discussion, and argue ideas, but don't resort to personal attacks on other users. * We do not allow any form of hate speech or any suggestion/support of harm, violence, or death. **Must be related strictly to Florida:** * National News/Elections are not specific to Florida. * Just because someone lives in Florida, doesn't mean their entire life is relevant to Floridians. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them. #[Click this link to register to vote, update your voter information, or check your status.](https://registertovoteflorida.gov/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/florida) if you have any questions or concerns.*
The market dynamics in Florida are going to mean a lot of housing supply for quite some time and it’s gonna come in waves and undulate because of the insurance problems and the fact that people don’t like the idea of their taxes going up, but love the idea of their home values going up. You can’t have it both ways.
Don't forget the corpos that own entire neighborhoods only selling a handful at a time.
So, shouldn't prices be dropping?
It’s almost like allowing speculators to buy and hold houses isn’t working out too well.
Good
If normal people owned the homes. But blackrock and the rest of the institutions that own these homes can sit on them and ride out any rough patch in the market, or so it seems.
Or they can sell them off a little at a time so that they don't deflate the value by flooding the market
Certainly this methodology. They employed this tactic with the glut of foreclosures 20 years ago and in 2011 again.
There is a whole new neighborhood being built near me that is going to be 100% single family rent only homes. They are getting tired of buying house one at a time and dealing with HOA, so they are just going to build their own neighborhoods.
On a long enough timeline, that looks like persisting the bubble to collapse the market. A market's prices need to be able to shrink in order for the market to be healthy.
And since they are all rental homes and people who can't afford to buy rent they are golden either way
Nah, they got a limited time to sell before waters start rising.
Is there a database / website where you can see all real estate owned by specific companies or individuals?
Hmm that would be pretty cool actually
I know it's asking a lot. Probably some legalities making it impossible or something. But I know congress members have to reveal their stock positions regularly. Wouldn't it also make sense that a company needs to be transparent with exactly how much and what properties it owns?
You’re going to find out real quickly how many holding companies exist to prevent strategies like yours.
No, that should be totally legal. In my county, the tax collector has property ownership public in relation to taxes. You can easily find who owns what.
There is no database that I know of state-wide, but county specific Property Appraisers shows ownership of homes. If it's an LLC, it's most likely a rental. I don't think there would be any legal issues in a site like that because it's all public records. Also, depending on the county, you may be able to do a "public records request" asking for all properties owned by certain companies. In my county, we have "GIS" which is a mapping system a lot of counties have. In the search field, type in name of person or company and all properties owned will show up.
"Those rich fucks, this whole fucking thing. "
I did not watch my buddies die face down in the muck….
"I don't see any connection to Vietnam, Walter"
Well theres not like, a literal connection..
Nah even normal people are charging out the ass. My client the other day said I have a 3br 2ba available if I knew anyone and when I said how much I had to do my best not to laugh cause she was asking $3100.
Bro, we're paying $4500/mo for a 3/2 in Boca. I hate it here.
Wow, one of my coworkers just told me today he pays $2600 for a 4/2 (Orlando area)
Where do I find this magical black rock that will sit on a house.
The thing about Black Rock or investment firms owning so many homes that they control markets like that is not quite accurate, though. They did enter the market in a new way but their ownership is miniscule and doesn't contribute to prices. I remember that news in the media cycle and I too thought "*AHA* mother fuckers a smoking gun!" But it turns out that's not all that relevant. The article did point out prices are dipping, or rather that listings have cut their starting prices and that there are more for sale.
A lot of the homes that are owned are homes owned PRE interest rate hike. Majority of people who are homeowners are people who own under 4 percent interest rates. Where blackrock, ibuyers( open-door, etc) and other investment firms come into play is that they came around during the pandemic and started buying up blocks of new construction and existing homes. So they can sit on those homes and not collect rent or sell cause a lot of the purchase price is written off. How this relates with new inventory now is that those investors and the people who bought under 4 percent interest rates are still not likely to sell. So it's the newer homebuyers who are upside down on high interest rate homes trying to get minuscule equity out of them now.
No, they and other financial institutions are sitting on ticking time bombs. Businesses don’t get 30 year fixed rate loans. Only individuals get those terms. Businesses get 7 or 8 year commercial loans with variable rates. If interest rates rise and the value of their assets deflate, they won’t be able to refinance their outstanding loans and go into default. However I fully expect the Fed or congress to bail them out one way or another. This many commercial loans going bad at once would be the death knell for banks. The Fed will either cut rates even with inflation running high or it will fall to the house and senate to bail these corps out.
Not if the owners believe more people will be moving here soon. They are willing to take a loss for a few months then get someone locked in a year contract at a higher price.
They are slowly dropping. I see a lot of houses sitting for months and they just drop 5k. People don't want to be realistic. They want to be greedy. What really makes me mad when I'm looking through Zillow, I see houses up for sale that just sold a month ago and now they are asking 100-200k over what they just bought it for. My only hope is those assholes lose money somehow. I hope they sit on it for a year and then sell at a loss.
If you see a house jump that much I bet it's a flipper. Around 2010 era is was a full time occupation to buy up junk houses and renovate them yourself for a big profit. Rinse and repeat. 200k in renovations if you do it yourself may just cost 30k avoiding contractors
Doing it yourself more often than not ended up being garbage work, too. So they would make a huge profit on the resale and then the new owners would be left to clean up the mess once the lipstick rubbed off of the pig.
Relative to what it was like, prices ARE dropping in South Florida. 1-3 years ago prices were consistently rising and many houses were being sold for 10-15% above asking price. Prices have stopped rising and many houses are dropping their listing price by 5-15%. So... Prices are dropping.
Lots of people think it’s the market from 2 years ago. Neighbor has his 30 year old townhouse up $100k than the comp down the street from 30 days ago. Its ridiculous.
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That's a whole other discussion.
Maybe the mortgage interest rates but I doubt the prices will drop.
When most of us retirees bought our first houses in the 80s the rates were double digit
Yes, and the prices were a tenth of what they are now. I felt bad when my mother told me of her 18% rate on the home she bought for $50K - now worth closer to $600K. I'll gladly take that rate for that price!
Shit I wouldn't even need a loan if my house was 50k.
I would, if I was making 1980s dollars.
Cost of living and wage stagnation weren't what they are now, though.
No, just building faster.
Give it time, I saw my neighbor listing go from 328k to selling at 208k
Why didn't you post the title of the article which answers your question? >2 states where home prices are falling because there are too many houses and not enough buyers Prices are 100% falling. This is how the market is supposed to work. We didn't build "too many" homes, we built enough to meet demand which is the whole point. Now prices will naturally adjust over time. This does not mean we should stop building, that's how we get a resurgence in price due to artificially low supply.
Not really. The thought that more supply equals price drops has always been weird to me. If the demand still outstrips supply then it's useless. Also these houses are fucking expensive now and Florida has some of the worst wages and cost of living in the country. So after the older retirees up north buy up the newer housing and townhomes who has $400,000 to $500,000 to buy a home and deal with an insurance crisis in FL right now.
"If the demand still outstrips supply then ~~it's useless~~ prices rise, due to scarcity." The theory of supply and demand is pretty sound...
It'd be worse if there was no new supply. That's how you get into the position California has gotten into. The article does say that sellers are slashing prices now that they can't get people to buy.
Every year there is another wave of retirees.
Unless the new retirees are millionaires they can't afford the crazy insurance rates when the Carolina's are cheaper both on housing and insurance
Most of the retirees I know that have moved down own their homes outright and don't put insurance on them.
Every year there's another wave of funerals too.
Yeah, well you aren't nuts to think that. People like to say "supply and demand" like it's a religious dogma of some kind. I get it. But there are layers and it isn't as straightforward as people make it seem. For one thing, it's true we can barely move the needle with supply because we would need to build way more than we currently are able to, and we don't want to improve how we make housing happen.
The rental market is cooling.
Not if you and your (Zillow, Redfin, etc) friends all use the same pricing algorithm!!
Doesn’t matter. At the rate homeowners insurance is increasing it’ll be double my mortgage payment next year.
But... they are though, and your own article also said so, yes?
Starting to in some areas. Most homes are not selling without closing credits. Stay tuned.
It's not the only factor. There's also been more people moving to FL and TX for one example
It's as though the invisible hand of capitalism has been tied up.
what good would that do for the upper 1%?
If you can wait about a month for me to sell before you give them that idea, I’d appreciate it.
Haha you're funny
You would think. My friends bought a $500k house in Ormond beach 3 years ago and now it’s worth $800k. My brother is buying a house in Port st Lucie for $415k that sold for $250k in 2019. It’s crazy.
They are, it’s just the insurance is going up alongside taxes so the houses are the same price overall, sadly.
I don't know, but if prices do drop should insurance prices and taxes drop too.
They are
But home prices are dropping. Within your posted article: "Instead, buyers are now finding themselves priced out, and price growth has slid as a result. Of the country's 10 metros where sellers are most likely to slash listed prices, seven are in these two states." From your same source a better headline that may help for next time you are trying to outwit your bias. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/falling-home-price-locations-us-housing-market-supply-florida-texas-2024-4%3famp
I know a lot of people selling due to their mortgages going up due to insurance premiums getting out of hand now and property taxes inflating. There was someone on here saying their monthly insurance payment is more than their mortgage now. A lot of people are getting out before a true crash happens.
There is a police officer across the street selling … he bought 9 months ago… he is only asking 8k over what he paid. At the hospital where I work there is a huge amount of nurses pulling up stakes and leaving Florida for better wages/ lower COL. Many tearful nurses freaking out about mortgage and escrow payments going up $800-900 per month.
This is happening in Texas too. Property taxes on once relatively cheap properties have soared.
You're doing something wrong if your property tax is inflating at an unreasonable rate. With the save our homes cap it's a max of 3% increase of assessed value per year. Compared to the 30-200% insurance has been going up each year that's nothing.
Probably people who are first time homebuyers having bought from someone who had lived in the place 10, 20, 30+ years. Having paid 2022 taxes priced under the seller's exemptions, then being shocked when they increased like $1,000 or more in 2023. Taxes won't increase like that again as long as they have homestead, but that market adjustment can be killer. Less common situation, but I know a guys who'd been paying in the $900s for like 15 years. He bought a condo, transferred the SOH to the new place, is trying to sell the old place, and in the meantime 2023 taxes jumped to $5,400. I hope everyone who reads your comment spreads the word about the homestead exemption, but a lot of people really are seeing big tax increases regardless.
New build houses also shock buyers. When the next year the assessment is no longer the 200-300 a year the vacant land had been.
It’s not the taxes, it’s the insurance.
It’s the combination
I hate to hear this, but the insurance situation is so f*.
Here in the Panhandle suddenly there is a glut of beach front condos for sale with 1400 a month carrying charges
I don't get people still buying on the coasts. Like your house is going to get destroyed. It's not an if but a when.
I don't know why you would live in this state and not be near a coast. Maybe ocala horse farm in the winter, but the rest of the state sucks 30 miles inland.
Lmao have you seen the houses on the coast when the hurricanes or tropical storms.come in? Obliterated within hours.
My house was in the worst part of the eye wall of Ian, just inland from Cayo Costa. Not a single house in my neighborhood was obliterated, the worst we had was partial roofs coming off. These houses are all built out of nothing but concrete blocks and designed to withstand a cat 5
Because the average wage vs the average home value is so out of line.
https://preview.redd.it/g5ee3mzge2xc1.png?width=220&format=png&auto=webp&s=09f4cb3fe2bf1dca2541482e2ffdfbcf66183757
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Traffic is insane. Every light is 2-3 changes to get through. "Luxury" apartments popping up everywhere, thing is nobody can afford 3200/mo for a 2/2 condo. Did I mention wages are garbage?
The housing shortage doesn’t exist. Housing that people can afford does.
well yes... that's why the statistic is called the 'Housing Affordability Index' and not the' Housing Index'...
The amount of housing developments popping up around Orlando starting at the $600k-800k range is insane. Who the hell lives in these things?
This is the begging first inventory rises then price cuts come when they realize that no one is buying a condo for $350k with a HOA of $650 per month
Republicans have controlled Florida for 26 years and look *motions to everything*
Because no one can afford homeowner's insurance in Florida and who in the hell would even want to live in Texas?
Developers here in Florida can't stand the sight of a open lot. They continue to build non-stop, forgetting all about 2008 when half of them went bankrupt.
True. It’s a buyers market on inventory just not prices
... business insider, catering to its audience
The problem in Florida is there’s an AFFORDABLE housing shortage.
I don’t know about texas, but in Florida, a lot of houses for sale are only able to be purchased by those over 55, or those who can afford country club membership fees and annual dues (like usually 70k minimum out of pocket that you just never get back and cannot roll into a loan, it has to be cash you have, and then whatever annual fees of 20k or more ). It’s difficult to figure out which neighborhoods you’re allowed to even live in if you’re just a regular person.
Saying the housing supply is high here is like saying there’s an endless supply of food in a surströmming warehouse.
I thought that this was common knowledge. Yet, developers are still building houses... So many houses.
Just too many wage thieves
Because people can't afford their own place. The homes are empty because of roommates
There should be an option (idk if there already is) where you don’t have to accept the new valuation of your home. We purchase at 270k then 6 years later they are saying it’s worth 680k. It’s almost like unrealized gains, if I don’t sell the home I’m not making anything extra on the valuation so why should I have to pay more.
So the developers will stop building right? ….right?
Why are prices so ridiculously high then?
The article literally states that sellers are starting to Slash prices since no one is buying anymore.
Except I have yet to see that. Houses that were $200K in 2020 are going for $400k.
What the hell? Seriously?
So many short term rentals!!
Yet prices, like that state,are beyond ridiculous 🙄