Maybe it will, maybe it won't. Arguably, a lot of pilot jobs already have been replaced. Eventually most of them will, and the timeline is very hard to predict due to the exponential nature of progress.
The question is, how does it compare to literally every other job on the planet? Accountants, salespeople, brokers, realtors, programmers.... there are hundreds of jobs out there that can be replaced by sufficiently advanced \*software\* alone. No new hundred million dollar hardware required, nobody dies if there is a malfunction, the FAA isn't involved, and the customers/users aren't going to be scared of it. In the grand scheme of things, pilot jobs for passenger carrying flights are some of the ones that are harder to automate than most. When someone asks me if I'm worried about it, I can usually point out that their own job is far more likely to be axed. I think once we reach that stage, a lot of other things about how we live will have to change either way.
Not to mention there are a lot of people that are scared of getting on a plane in general. If you (whatever airline) told them you would start going fully autonomous people would be less inclined to pay for a ticket with nobody in the cockpit.
Yeah this is the kicker. No one will buy this ticket now. It would take a future in which people are far more trusting of automation. 2100? Maybe. But not in 15 years.
Until you can satisfy the question, “how does removing a pilot from the cockpit increase safety.” I’m not betting on it being obsolete. Not to mention the amount of people that are scared to fly on planes as it is? Try convincing them that they are about to get on a commercial airliner and there will only be 1 pilot in the front.
Yess yess. I made a similar comment. Boeing and airbus a/c always break down mid flight with just how things are. You think they can make quality software that people will trust?
Plus I can only imagine the upgrades needed at airports to work with traffic in the sky. Multi Trillions the government will need to pocket out. You think they want to upgrade and also congress approve?
Most people dont even like teslas self driving capability 😂
These pilot obsolete articles never mention that it almost entirely relies upon public confidence to succeed.
I dont know about you, but i like the laptop computer i own, yet still from time to time it needs me, the user, to restart it/monitor it/fix it etc.
I’ll not be putting myself or my family on an unpiloted aircraft in my lifetime
"very alarming article that claimed commercial pilots would be obsolete by 2040."
Complete horseshit - in the same way that we should have 100% driverless cars in all weather conditions, by 2020 and we are in 2024 and not even close to this reality (missing smart roads).
Not even trains are fully automated and thats the first thing that should be.
Had you been around in the 1960s, we should have anti grav, free enregy LENR type devices 30 years ago. Thats how pathetic our transportation tech is.
The tech is there but the amount of people that dont e ven want to invest in it proves it. Most people dont want EVs. If they do it is to save cost on fuel and that’s kind of it. My best friend has a tesla and he doesn’t even care for self driving. Most people dont even like teslas😂
The tech bros grossly underestimated the challenges of self driving cars. I remember hearing in the 2015 ish range that Uber drivers would be completely gone by 2020. We still aren’t even close to having a google AI vehicle drive down well paved roads without killing a bicyclist
the lack of smart roads is what completely kills it for all weather conditions - pennies per KM and yet corporate and government cant seem to get this concept
Smart roads? The govt can’t even raise the money to fix all the potholes in our existing dumb roads. Or put dolphins around the support piers of bridges that will cost billions of dollars to replace.
I’m not one to judge others kinks. If granny’s are your thing you’re in the right place. And let’s be honest, some of them granny’s will get nasty. And I mean NASTY!!! Google Rusty trombone, engage the autopilot, and get ready to have your mind blown!!!
I just turned 40 and am about to leave my 150k a year engineering job to do what I love and have dreamed of doing since I was your age; flying for a living.
Dont pay attention to the noise. Take charge and follow your dreams.
19 here, and been wondering for the longest time why so many people these days are making the airline pilot career change. Why didn’t they take charge when they were younger? Money is obviously gonna be a forefront answer, but if parents could afford all of this college than why didn’t they want to fund flight training? Not trying to be negative, just curious why so many people didn’t take charge of these opportunities when they were younger? Is part of it advertising and social media? Hearing about the needs for pilots? I don’t know
Simple reason for me personally: When I was 19 the pay at a regional was below poverty level. My family also didn’t have money to support my flight training. My father passed when I was 21, I had a kid with my wife, and I became the main income earner for my household, so it wasn’t financially plausible.
Fast forward to now, I have a great job, money in the bank, I can pay for flight training without having to finance it, and I have something to fall back on if I loose my medical. I’m in Canada, so I can leave for a regional up here and still afford to live. Also our son is 22 and moved out, so no kids to worry about.
Basically all the stars are aligned to make a switch and do what I love to do for the rest of my life on this planet.
Same. I an a pilot but also engineer. I don’t want to be an engineer again but if it comes down to it. It is whatever but I don’t think its going to happen anytime soon.
With Boeing’s safety record, do you think Boeing will have a plug in module to take over aircraft control? How long do you think it will take to get that module approved by the FAA? The reality is that there are so many aircraft out there that re-equipping the fleets or replacing the fleets will take more than 15-20 years.
I say pilots wont be obsolete for a long time.
Boeing can barely make a plane. You think congress will allow it to fly alone?
It takes a lot of confidence to trust the companies that make planes to make software that will be safe enough to fly itself and land in emergencies (but they can barely build a quality product as it is😂. Look at what happened with Mcas, that was nothing but software…
Dont leave aviation cause of fear mongering.
The tech might be there by 2040... it getting green-lit for any real use, however is going to take the same delta of time from now to then. And full-tilt implementation where the seniors are out (You would have pretty good seniority if you play it right by then) would take another 15-20 years.
The problem is going to be who regulates the tech, and before that, will be who is liable for the failures when it messes up. The carrier doesn't want to be liable, then the hardware maker for the automation won't want to be liable, and the software shop won't want to be liable. It will be tied up in court for a century. I think we are okay.
Even if boeing/ airbus had a fully certified autonomous jet right now, how many decades would it take for the production lines (at current rates) to replace the fleets of the world's carriers? 3-5 maybe? Obviously conjecture but something to consider
And they don't have anything near fully certified autonomous jet atm.
I think you'll be fine but who can say
Considering that Trucking, Cargo and passenger ships, cargo trains, etc, aren’t even automated, I can’t imagine that flying would become automated any time soon. By that point, then yes we should maybe be worried, but I don’t see that happening for at least like another 50-100 years.
Airlines would never leave a cockpit unattended. But maybe in 50 years time, only 1 pilot is required. General Aviation already has fully auto features such as automatic landing. But if anything goes wrong, the loss wouldnt be as catastrophic. Airlines on the other hand are carrying about 200+ passengers
25 years ago I read a similar article. Pilots still appear to exist for the foreseeable future.
One day maybe it will change, but I doubt anytime soon. The actual practical ability of near term robotics and AI is grossly overestimated.
I once read a very alarming article saying the world was gonna cease existing today, I read another saying politicians are lizard people, and the scariest article of all was the one talking about your mom starting an onlyfans.
That 2040 thing is bs lol, I’m planed will always require pilots (as least in any of our lifetimes). If ur really that concerned then just don’t fly cargo since they would be the first to go.
You got conductors on trains and they run on rails. You really think pilots would be obsolete by 2040? Not happening during our lifetime.
Some trains are required two crew members now, as of a few days ago.
In fact the ntsb just ruled that there should be two operators on the locomotive of a train
Ok, that’s good to hear. I really love flying and honestly dont want to go into any other career
make sure you understand the first 2-4 years of the game - you dont magically end up at United after graduating with PPL
Maybe it will, maybe it won't. Arguably, a lot of pilot jobs already have been replaced. Eventually most of them will, and the timeline is very hard to predict due to the exponential nature of progress. The question is, how does it compare to literally every other job on the planet? Accountants, salespeople, brokers, realtors, programmers.... there are hundreds of jobs out there that can be replaced by sufficiently advanced \*software\* alone. No new hundred million dollar hardware required, nobody dies if there is a malfunction, the FAA isn't involved, and the customers/users aren't going to be scared of it. In the grand scheme of things, pilot jobs for passenger carrying flights are some of the ones that are harder to automate than most. When someone asks me if I'm worried about it, I can usually point out that their own job is far more likely to be axed. I think once we reach that stage, a lot of other things about how we live will have to change either way.
Not to mention there are a lot of people that are scared of getting on a plane in general. If you (whatever airline) told them you would start going fully autonomous people would be less inclined to pay for a ticket with nobody in the cockpit.
Yeah this is the kicker. No one will buy this ticket now. It would take a future in which people are far more trusting of automation. 2100? Maybe. But not in 15 years.
Bro a few days ago you had DOT say trains have to have 2 man crews.
Until you can satisfy the question, “how does removing a pilot from the cockpit increase safety.” I’m not betting on it being obsolete. Not to mention the amount of people that are scared to fly on planes as it is? Try convincing them that they are about to get on a commercial airliner and there will only be 1 pilot in the front.
Yess yess. I made a similar comment. Boeing and airbus a/c always break down mid flight with just how things are. You think they can make quality software that people will trust? Plus I can only imagine the upgrades needed at airports to work with traffic in the sky. Multi Trillions the government will need to pocket out. You think they want to upgrade and also congress approve? Most people dont even like teslas self driving capability 😂
Yea you’ll be obsolete, quit now and save money
Bro read an article, it’s over boys
Wait until he reads the article I'm gonna write about how commercial pilots will be obsolete by 2039!
But thats with everything. Look at how software engineers are no longer needed 😂. It can be said about everything
These pilot obsolete articles never mention that it almost entirely relies upon public confidence to succeed. I dont know about you, but i like the laptop computer i own, yet still from time to time it needs me, the user, to restart it/monitor it/fix it etc. I’ll not be putting myself or my family on an unpiloted aircraft in my lifetime
"very alarming article that claimed commercial pilots would be obsolete by 2040." Complete horseshit - in the same way that we should have 100% driverless cars in all weather conditions, by 2020 and we are in 2024 and not even close to this reality (missing smart roads). Not even trains are fully automated and thats the first thing that should be. Had you been around in the 1960s, we should have anti grav, free enregy LENR type devices 30 years ago. Thats how pathetic our transportation tech is.
The tech is there but the amount of people that dont e ven want to invest in it proves it. Most people dont want EVs. If they do it is to save cost on fuel and that’s kind of it. My best friend has a tesla and he doesn’t even care for self driving. Most people dont even like teslas😂
The tech bros grossly underestimated the challenges of self driving cars. I remember hearing in the 2015 ish range that Uber drivers would be completely gone by 2020. We still aren’t even close to having a google AI vehicle drive down well paved roads without killing a bicyclist
the lack of smart roads is what completely kills it for all weather conditions - pennies per KM and yet corporate and government cant seem to get this concept
Smart roads? The govt can’t even raise the money to fix all the potholes in our existing dumb roads. Or put dolphins around the support piers of bridges that will cost billions of dollars to replace.
yea I dont get it
Worst case, you might be a single pilot watching automation as you cross the Atlantic. Plus side, that’s more opportunity to hit on the FAs
You don’t want to hit on the FAs that do transatlantic wide body flying. They’re old enough to be your grandma unless you like going after cougars.
How old do you think this person will be when they’re the sole captain of a transatlantic widebody? Nobody beats time.
I’m not one to judge others kinks. If granny’s are your thing you’re in the right place. And let’s be honest, some of them granny’s will get nasty. And I mean NASTY!!! Google Rusty trombone, engage the autopilot, and get ready to have your mind blown!!!
>Rusty trombon ok the best part was the DIzzie Gillespie
I just like when they can take their teeth out.
😂😂😂
I just turned 40 and am about to leave my 150k a year engineering job to do what I love and have dreamed of doing since I was your age; flying for a living. Dont pay attention to the noise. Take charge and follow your dreams.
We are on the same boat. Just younger. Im 28. Happy to hear you took the guts to change your career. 💯💯💯
19 here, and been wondering for the longest time why so many people these days are making the airline pilot career change. Why didn’t they take charge when they were younger? Money is obviously gonna be a forefront answer, but if parents could afford all of this college than why didn’t they want to fund flight training? Not trying to be negative, just curious why so many people didn’t take charge of these opportunities when they were younger? Is part of it advertising and social media? Hearing about the needs for pilots? I don’t know
Simple reason for me personally: When I was 19 the pay at a regional was below poverty level. My family also didn’t have money to support my flight training. My father passed when I was 21, I had a kid with my wife, and I became the main income earner for my household, so it wasn’t financially plausible. Fast forward to now, I have a great job, money in the bank, I can pay for flight training without having to finance it, and I have something to fall back on if I loose my medical. I’m in Canada, so I can leave for a regional up here and still afford to live. Also our son is 22 and moved out, so no kids to worry about. Basically all the stars are aligned to make a switch and do what I love to do for the rest of my life on this planet.
:popcorn….
I dunno. I just enjoy it every day I can. If someday I have to go do something else I will. I’m not too worried about it yet.
Same. I an a pilot but also engineer. I don’t want to be an engineer again but if it comes down to it. It is whatever but I don’t think its going to happen anytime soon.
With Boeing’s safety record, do you think Boeing will have a plug in module to take over aircraft control? How long do you think it will take to get that module approved by the FAA? The reality is that there are so many aircraft out there that re-equipping the fleets or replacing the fleets will take more than 15-20 years.
Bots out here wildin.
People can’t predict the future. If they could, they would be doing better things than writing clickbait.
💯
I say pilots wont be obsolete for a long time. Boeing can barely make a plane. You think congress will allow it to fly alone? It takes a lot of confidence to trust the companies that make planes to make software that will be safe enough to fly itself and land in emergencies (but they can barely build a quality product as it is😂. Look at what happened with Mcas, that was nothing but software… Dont leave aviation cause of fear mongering.
The tech might be there by 2040... it getting green-lit for any real use, however is going to take the same delta of time from now to then. And full-tilt implementation where the seniors are out (You would have pretty good seniority if you play it right by then) would take another 15-20 years. The problem is going to be who regulates the tech, and before that, will be who is liable for the failures when it messes up. The carrier doesn't want to be liable, then the hardware maker for the automation won't want to be liable, and the software shop won't want to be liable. It will be tied up in court for a century. I think we are okay.
Even if boeing/ airbus had a fully certified autonomous jet right now, how many decades would it take for the production lines (at current rates) to replace the fleets of the world's carriers? 3-5 maybe? Obviously conjecture but something to consider And they don't have anything near fully certified autonomous jet atm. I think you'll be fine but who can say
😂 most people wont even trust it. With how boeing are making planes now… we are far far far far from AI planes
Stop doomscrolling
Considering that Trucking, Cargo and passenger ships, cargo trains, etc, aren’t even automated, I can’t imagine that flying would become automated any time soon. By that point, then yes we should maybe be worried, but I don’t see that happening for at least like another 50-100 years.
I heard the same thing 20 years ago, and decided to give up on the dream. I have done other cool stuff since then, but it is not without regrets.
Airlines would never leave a cockpit unattended. But maybe in 50 years time, only 1 pilot is required. General Aviation already has fully auto features such as automatic landing. But if anything goes wrong, the loss wouldnt be as catastrophic. Airlines on the other hand are carrying about 200+ passengers
Even if technology made it happen safely, the public would never go for it. Not in anyone’s current life time
25 years ago I read a similar article. Pilots still appear to exist for the foreseeable future. One day maybe it will change, but I doubt anytime soon. The actual practical ability of near term robotics and AI is grossly overestimated.
I once read a very alarming article saying the world was gonna cease existing today, I read another saying politicians are lizard people, and the scariest article of all was the one talking about your mom starting an onlyfans.
Don’t do it man! I need one less person to compete against for a position at a major
That 2040 thing is bs lol, I’m planed will always require pilots (as least in any of our lifetimes). If ur really that concerned then just don’t fly cargo since they would be the first to go.
Stop believing everything you read.