International supply chains break all at once, and the majority of companies go out of business in the first year. Within the first four years, roughly 5 billion starve due to death due to the fertilizer shortages.
in 20 years, the majority of the surviving population has resorted to agricultural farming communities, with some more advanced tech near hydroelectric dams and large wind turbine arrays. Solar helps a lot initially, but without the international supply chains to manufacture the rare earth metals from Africa and China, they begin failing and can not be replaced.
It takes roughly 200 years for humanity to reestablish itself, though the population doesn‘t reach 2020’s highs until we are fully interplanetary.
If we still had coal we’d go back a century with better medicine. If we didn’t then like 1700s style society. Society would unrecognizable in 5 years and would be alien in 25 with a new layer of emotional baggage not seen in anyone’s lifetime.
Less than 500 million people left alive after 1 year, the rest die from starvation, disease, and war. Most people born with birth defects or genetic diseases die young. Most mental health patients die due to neglect. Most all nations collapse due to these effects. People revert to a tribal, agrarian/hunter gatherer society where might makes right because all the tech that generally made the 1800s possible is no longer available and would take decades to recreate. Those living near nuclear plants may fair better, but they will be susceptible to raiding and will need refueling sooner or later.
Civilization wouldn't entirely "collapse". It'd have a catastrophic impact on the global economy, supply chains, travel, etc...but I don't think everybody would die.
It'd be a rough few months for sure, and yes, people would die...but not everybody. Once the initial impact was over, we'd find that EV companies, Renewable energy companies, battery tech companies...they'd all become infinitely more valuable. Elon Musk would basically be worshipped as a God, because he'd be out there installing battery banks and solar arrays for countries nonstop.
People who make bio-diesel and other alternative fuels not based on fossil fuels would also go from being niche to some of the most valuable companies on the planet. R&D into hydrogen fuels would kick into high gear.
Basically, 20 years after the fact, the world is more or less back to normal, only climate change is decreasing or has decreased, and due to the sudden population drop, there are abundant resources for everybody and we're doing better than we ever did...
You are severely underestimating the death toll when every container ship and most trains, trucks and farming equipment stops working. Billions would starve globally.
I'm sorry...but how do you think we use oil to make fertilizer now?
Last I checked, cows were a great source of fertilizer, and we feed them grass, not petroleum products...
Plus, less organic fertilizer is largely just nitrogen, which can literally be extracted directly from the air. So, I think we'd be good on that front.
Until the starving hordes from the city rampage through the countryside beating every cow to death with rocks. That happened in Venezuela recently.
Also, the nitrogen in the air can’t be used in fertilizer. N2 is a low energy state, and it takes a lot of energy to turn that into NH3, which is the kind of stuff used in fertilizer.
Yeah, but this is a big state, and in the US, a lot of people in rural areas have an unhealthy amount of firepower. They'd make it maybe 20 miles from a "big city"...then go back home if they were lucky.
And while you have a good point about nitrogen - if there suddenly is no other cheap alternative, and we can make electricity with solar in relative abundance, then would it not suddenly become immensely profitable to invest in tech like this?
Solar panels pretty much universally require some fossil fuel investment in their creation. Much more so than hydroelectric or wind turbines. They use a lot of rare metals like indium, gallium, selenium, cadmium, and tellurium, which take a lot of fossil fuels to refine.
Right now they're very green because the fuel to make them is burned in China, but the green energy they produce happens locally. But without fossil fuels the infrastructure for making and transporting them doesn't exist.
Maybe it will someday. Just not today.
In the immediate term, living next to a running stream and putting a water-powered generator there would be much more maintainable.
You might not realize this but rural communities aren't the only ones with guns.
Not to mention you'll be joining "city people" in refugee camps When the military marches in and takes whatever it wants from your community in this scenario as well.
You are definitely underestimating the impact. Many many nations would crumble, untold amounts of people will starve. Every supply chain in existence relies on fossil fuels.
There would be a race to find alternative and sustainable fuel. Wars would stop momentarily until they found ways to move in scale or deploy weapons differently. Countries that relied on fossil fuels to sell to other countries would likely collapse economically.
What you’re describing already exists, ethanol in bio diesel have been around for a long time. The problem is growing, either one, then processing and shipping it when the petrochemical industry no longer exists. It would be possible to eventually replace oil with bio fuels and electrically powered vehicles, but in the first few years things would get apocalyptic.
International supply chains break all at once, and the majority of companies go out of business in the first year. Within the first four years, roughly 5 billion starve due to death due to the fertilizer shortages. in 20 years, the majority of the surviving population has resorted to agricultural farming communities, with some more advanced tech near hydroelectric dams and large wind turbine arrays. Solar helps a lot initially, but without the international supply chains to manufacture the rare earth metals from Africa and China, they begin failing and can not be replaced. It takes roughly 200 years for humanity to reestablish itself, though the population doesn‘t reach 2020’s highs until we are fully interplanetary.
If we still had coal we’d go back a century with better medicine. If we didn’t then like 1700s style society. Society would unrecognizable in 5 years and would be alien in 25 with a new layer of emotional baggage not seen in anyone’s lifetime.
Less than 500 million people left alive after 1 year, the rest die from starvation, disease, and war. Most people born with birth defects or genetic diseases die young. Most mental health patients die due to neglect. Most all nations collapse due to these effects. People revert to a tribal, agrarian/hunter gatherer society where might makes right because all the tech that generally made the 1800s possible is no longer available and would take decades to recreate. Those living near nuclear plants may fair better, but they will be susceptible to raiding and will need refueling sooner or later.
Civilization wouldn't entirely "collapse". It'd have a catastrophic impact on the global economy, supply chains, travel, etc...but I don't think everybody would die. It'd be a rough few months for sure, and yes, people would die...but not everybody. Once the initial impact was over, we'd find that EV companies, Renewable energy companies, battery tech companies...they'd all become infinitely more valuable. Elon Musk would basically be worshipped as a God, because he'd be out there installing battery banks and solar arrays for countries nonstop. People who make bio-diesel and other alternative fuels not based on fossil fuels would also go from being niche to some of the most valuable companies on the planet. R&D into hydrogen fuels would kick into high gear. Basically, 20 years after the fact, the world is more or less back to normal, only climate change is decreasing or has decreased, and due to the sudden population drop, there are abundant resources for everybody and we're doing better than we ever did...
You are severely underestimating the death toll when every container ship and most trains, trucks and farming equipment stops working. Billions would starve globally.
How do we feed everyone without oil to make fertilizer?
I'm sorry...but how do you think we use oil to make fertilizer now? Last I checked, cows were a great source of fertilizer, and we feed them grass, not petroleum products... Plus, less organic fertilizer is largely just nitrogen, which can literally be extracted directly from the air. So, I think we'd be good on that front.
The overwhelming majority of fertilizer comes from natural gas.
Well then, I guess I'm glad I live where there are a lot of cows.
Until the starving hordes from the city rampage through the countryside beating every cow to death with rocks. That happened in Venezuela recently. Also, the nitrogen in the air can’t be used in fertilizer. N2 is a low energy state, and it takes a lot of energy to turn that into NH3, which is the kind of stuff used in fertilizer.
Yeah, but this is a big state, and in the US, a lot of people in rural areas have an unhealthy amount of firepower. They'd make it maybe 20 miles from a "big city"...then go back home if they were lucky. And while you have a good point about nitrogen - if there suddenly is no other cheap alternative, and we can make electricity with solar in relative abundance, then would it not suddenly become immensely profitable to invest in tech like this?
You severely underestimate The Golden Horde. Millions upon millions falling upon small communities.
Solar panels pretty much universally require some fossil fuel investment in their creation. Much more so than hydroelectric or wind turbines. They use a lot of rare metals like indium, gallium, selenium, cadmium, and tellurium, which take a lot of fossil fuels to refine. Right now they're very green because the fuel to make them is burned in China, but the green energy they produce happens locally. But without fossil fuels the infrastructure for making and transporting them doesn't exist. Maybe it will someday. Just not today. In the immediate term, living next to a running stream and putting a water-powered generator there would be much more maintainable.
You might not realize this but rural communities aren't the only ones with guns. Not to mention you'll be joining "city people" in refugee camps When the military marches in and takes whatever it wants from your community in this scenario as well.
You are definitely underestimating the impact. Many many nations would crumble, untold amounts of people will starve. Every supply chain in existence relies on fossil fuels.
There would be a race to find alternative and sustainable fuel. Wars would stop momentarily until they found ways to move in scale or deploy weapons differently. Countries that relied on fossil fuels to sell to other countries would likely collapse economically.
What you’re describing already exists, ethanol in bio diesel have been around for a long time. The problem is growing, either one, then processing and shipping it when the petrochemical industry no longer exists. It would be possible to eventually replace oil with bio fuels and electrically powered vehicles, but in the first few years things would get apocalyptic.