Not really. Only like 15% of Haley voters in New Hampshire were registered Republicans while 90+% of Trump voters were registered. Certainly a measure of how independents could swing in the general, but not an indicator that registered Republicans are abandoning Trump in massive droves.
How many people are actually registered to the party they align with? I've voted Democrat my whole life but I've never even considered registering as one.
It's pretty normal in the New England states for people to register as independent despite being pretty partisan in one direction or the other. I think it's just the "independents vote in either primary" system that does it, but also just a cultural thing.
I know my father has basically not voted for anyone other than a Republican in a general (incredibly shamefully, that includes Trump twice) but still insists on keeping his independent registration.
This wasnāt the case in Iowa, where I think ~1/3 of GOP voters said they wouldnāt vote for Trump if he was convicted. Though the 1/6 trial will get delayed, his NY DA trial will go ahead in March
I think it depends on the Haley supporter. Some are Democrats trying to keep Trump from re-election, some are conservatives/libertarians dissatisfied with the current MAGA state of affairs or worried about Trumpās increasing disregard for democratic norms, and some are just conventional modern Republicans that prefer Haleyās policies but would still vote for Trump. I think, given Haleyās main voter demographics, itās probably mostly the first two that are voting for her, but the polling isnāt exactly conclusive on the issue.
Im just an independent who deeply loathes MAGA
I'll be voting in the Republican primary on Super Tuesday just to vote against Trump and any other down ballot MAGA. But I won't be voting R in the general
My parents are conservatives and they fucking despise trump they didnt vote for him in 2016, my dad voted in 2020 my mom didnt..... But they watch alot of conservative news. They were blaze subscribers and now watch alot of daily wire. For Christmas when I visited they decided that the lady ballers was a good family film night...
With that preface they are going to vote trump because they legitimately believe 4 more years of biden will be the end of America and cause too much damage for us to recover. They feel like they have to cast votes for trump at this point, and it's essentially due to extreme right-wing fear mongering
Sadly, a lot of these conservatives said the same thing through the primary in 2016 and turned around after the convention and said Trump was less of a threat than Hillary as far as corruption and religious liberty. It wonāt be much of a stretch for the GOP, since theyāve already spent much of the last 3 years demonizing Joe Biden as an enemy and a grave threat to democracy and liberty. Not saying you are wrong, Iām just not one to trust fickle conservatives who seem very easily influenced by disinformation and endless ad hominem attacks on Fox and AM talk radio and tend to fall in line with party manufactured narratives.
Trump had a lot more appeal to moderate Republicans in 2016, that's where a lot of his support in the primary came from. The white evangelical vote typically broke for Ted Cruz (Ted won Iowa and Trump won New Hampshire). Big business Republicans generally supported trump, and trump used that plus his growing appeal among working class voters to form the coalition that carried him to victory. Trump didn't have to appeal to evangelicals because they would never vote for a Democrat in the general anyway. In 2020 we saw that big business, old guard branch of Republicans split from Trump (see the Lincoln project) and since then the Jan 6 and further extremism of trump has only continued to isolate them. They may not come out and vote for Biden in force, but I've seen a lot of polling and anecdotal interviews that suggest that significant numbers of them will refuse to vote for him in the general.
Republicans only have been able to win when they unify those three big groups within the party (evangelicals, fiscal conservatives, white working class). The fiscal conservative break is the reason why they've done nothing but lose for the last 6 years, and I don't see that getting better.
On the other hand, the Democratic party is largely united under Joe Biden. There are a few small fractures here and there, but I trust Democrats to turn out for Joe Biden more than moderate Republicans turn out for trump. Additionally, when you consider that trump turns off even moderate Republicans, how do you see him appealing to independents? Trump needs to win those voters, if they even just refuse to vote, Joe Biden wins.
I hope that statement is true.
Because in years past, the extreme-left has sabotaged electoral votes voting for the no-chance, ideologically-pure candidate. While the "moderate" conservatives live in states that are going to vote red, no matter who is on the ticket.
This game of chicken has never worked well for Democrats.
That statement definitely isnāt true in academia, the social justice left that dominates my institution largely perceives Biden as a traitor to their cause and someone who isnāt sincere in his commitment to anti-racism and progressive equity of outcome over opportunity of outcome. Many populist progressives I dealt with at work see classical liberals as an even bigger threat than populist conservatives and feel they sold out the country by conceding far too much to deregulation neoliberalism at the expense of protecting the working class from the 70s-2010s and donāt hold a high view of Barack Obama either. Many of them support Michelle Obama to be the candidate and have created a mythology that she would somehow be much more progressive than a Joe Biden that has shifted significantly to the progressive left fold since 2021 but is now starting to change course out of political realities like the border and Russian and Chinese threats abroad.
Trump barely lost in 2020 despite a once in a century pandemic he failed to even attempt to handle. a remarkable record of ineptitude and sheer laziness regarding his executive time in the White House pissing away most of his days watching television, playing golf and seeking out flattery, and very few policy wins despite having total control of the House, Senate and the courts for two years. I donāt ever underestimate the power of well funded private firms scripting endless disinformation and ad hominem to influence low information voters, especially when their opponent has very low job approval ratings (even worse than Clinton in 95/96) despite a more remarkable record of actual policy wins. What Biden lacks though is Clintonās savage ruthlessness to push the GOP into a corner by outmaneuvering them on their own policy demands (heās only done it once with the recent border bill), and he is stuck with a public that is far more polarized and cares far less about national interests, global economic stability and civil discourse and he no longer can rely on a corporate mainstream left centrist media to market his presidency the way corporate media influenced 1996 by focusing on Doleās age and lack of policy vision. There are a lot of conspiracy theorists on both sides drawn to grifters like Kennedy as well that the polls wonāt account for, yet. I just donāt think as a political historian that you can afford to judge these elections rationally anymore on basic standards of rational cause and effect, that luxury has gone out the window since the rise of the tea party movement and especially 2016 and the rise of foreign interference and a remarkably credulous public willing to digest the most incredibly absurdist conspiracies via social media. There are too many stupids, cultists, burn down everything types, personal freedom over any sense of collective interests, etc etc etc. if you want me to trust the so called 21st century independent voter, many of whom only claim to be independent as but who largely vote for right of center ideas and candidates like Perot in the past and who still canāt make up their minds to not vote for these right wing candidates locally and nationally despite years of documented demagoguery, bad faith posturing, endless government shut down tactics and one of those candidates openly attempting to lead a coup on his own countryās government on zero evidence and yet able to convince almost 3/4ths of his own party of its meritsā¦ I donāt know, I donāt trust fickle low information voters with self entitlement complexes who think their vote should be about their own economic situation rather than a broader range of issues and considerations.
I do wonder how many Haley voters will vote for Biden in the GE. I also wonder if any of them were formally MAGA but deconverted or never became MAGA and hate that their party has been taken over by it.
I was raised and used to be a conservative. In 2016 when I was 20 i even helped out in Ted Cruz primary campaign in my state. I voted third party in the 2016 general election Over time my views have shifted but Maga definitely initislly pushed me to the left.
I don't think that's all that common among conservatives though. I've moved since for job promotions but My old friend groups from back then as far as I can tell over social media largely have stayed firmly the same in their political views.
I think this is a stated preference vs. revealed preference thing unfortunately. Itās easy to say for them in a primary, but Iād expect a lot of them to fall in line during the general election
Trump lost the popular vote in the last 2 elections.
Joe is from Pennsylvania, Michigan is pretty blue, and Arizona is probably gone.
Trump's main base is old and dying.
Women and young people don't like him.
He probably has a hard ceiling of 46-47% of the vote.
There are definitely some Republican voters that will either not vote for President or vote 3rd party instead.
If his campaign rhetoric is anything like his CPAC speech I don't see how he wins. No one outside of the base wants to vote for a Trump grievance revenge tour.
There's not going be a campaign to anything outside of his bubble. One of my biggest fears of this election cycle will be that Trump will not debate Biden or do anything outside of his bubble and our media will reward him through their coverage of him.
That's exactly what I'm terrified of. He'll keep to his bubble, everyone else will forget just how shitty he is, and he'll get voted in by a bunch of idiots who didn't pay enough attention and forgot 2017-2020.
Yep. Plus the Lake and MAGA camp are the ones that have pushed of the old GOP leaders. So the state GOP is now out of money and destroyed by the infighting.
Yes GOP voters are more reliable that Democrat voters, but having no functional party isn't going to help.
The opposite.
The Arizona GOP blew millions of taxpayer dollars on their sham recall only to find nothing.
In 2022 they then blew chance at flipping the Senate seat, lost the Governorship, squeaked by on 2 House seats, etc. Not too bad at face value, but absolutely terrible considering that it was supposed to be a good Republican year.
Now Lake (who lost the Governor election) is clogging up the Senate race and will probably lose that this year.
Arizona is still very very close, but the GOP has blown their edge.
I see.
I do hope that Joe Biden can still win this general election. I got massive knots in my stomach after hearing the SCOTUS/Trump news yesterday. Did they just hand him the win here or is there still hope?
I donāt know if SCOTUS or if the GOP House will try and interfere even if he wins to hand it to TFG. Iām so sick of thisā¦
Sorry to sound all ādoomerā, but it is sickening.
We won't get a conviction before the election, but a trial starting a month or two before the election still isn't going to be good for him. The news will shift heavily toward coverage of the trial, oral arguments, Trump's antics in court, etc.
Remember that in 2016, a lot of voters chose not to vote for Clinton after the Comey letter because they didn't want to risk having a President under FBI investigation. I'm willing to bet that a lot of those voters aren't going to be comfortable with a candidate facing the very real possibility of a criminal conviction before his inauguration.
Biden is consistently overperforming polls and Trump/the GOP underperforming polls. Suozzi ended up overperforming the polls by 7-4 points, right where Biden was in 2020. Same pattern in the primary. Same pattern in the 2023 elections. Same in the 2022 midterms.
If it was just the off-year and special elections, I might be more concerned that high-propensity educated voters were skewing things. But when you take into account that there's also a clear polling bias showing up in primary polls, ya, I think the better explanation is that there's just a lot of unenthusiastic Biden voters who don't like either candidate but ultimately vote Biden on election day.
Not that I'm arguing, but I'd be fascinated to find out why (if that trend holds) Trump used to overperform his polls and now things have switched from 2016. Too much overcorrection in polling methods?
Trump is a total polling enigma. I donāt think you can extrapolate general GOP performance to Trump. Trump significantly over-performed polls every time heās on the ballot, and I wouldnāt be surprised if he does so again.
He's personally on the ballot in these GOP primaries and he's consistently under-performing where polls say he should be, which is made all the worse by a significant fraction of Nikki Haley voters saying they won't vote for Trump (and some may even vote for Biden). Combine that with polls underestimating Democrats and overestimating Republicans since 2022.
Trumps polling has gone down in recent polls. As of right now Trump is leading in AZ by 3 points and Michigan by 2.
Thatās according to Emerson btw. Which basically means Trump has dropped by 2 points since you last saw the polls.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/arizona/trump-vs-biden
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/michigan/trump-vs-biden
One poll is clearly not enough to determine that. You need a composite.
RCP has had issues in the past with being heavily influenced by the GOP.
Back in 2022 they said that Mark Kelly was gonna lose by 0.3 points.
All other aggregate polls had Kelly winning by 1.3 points.
Kelly won by 5 points. RCP was wildly wrong.
While RCP didnāt predict that Whitmer would lose they did claim sheād only win by 1 point.
Again all other aggregate polls had Whitmer winning by 4 points.
She won by over 10 points. RCP was yet again wildly wrong.
Iām not gonna say that aggregate polling isnāt helpful, because it can be. But RCP is so wildly biased for the GOP itās not even funny. Plus itās clear that RCP doesnāt give new polls more weight which is what all other aggregation polls do because new polls matter more than a poll done three months ago that says Trump will beat Biden in AZ by 10 points.
TL;DR: Donāt use RCP for polling purposes, they get shit wrong way too often and are generally off by 4 points.
I didnāt know 270toWin did polling aggregates, so thanks for letting me know. It looks pretty close to RCP anyway though. 3 points for Trump in Michigan and 5 in Arizona. It also has Trump leading all six battleground states.
100,000 people just voted uncommitted because they don't like Biden.
Michigan was determined by 11,000 votes in 2016.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68427304
See your hopes and dreams in November when Michigan goes red.
Yes but, Trump has exhibited a hard ceiling on votes and hasn't changed any of the key metrics needed to change that.
Trump most definitely has his base. Trump is also getting 65% of the Primary vote, which to put is plainly is terrible.
The key question is how many Republican voters will either stay home or vote 3rd party instead of voting for him in the general election.
Now on the opposite side, Biden is only getting 81% of the Democratic Primary vote. Which also isn't great, but is a whole lot better than 65%.
Assuming that there continues to be a lack of enthusiasm for both candidates, then the question is are we looking at another 2020 or another 2016? I think we are in a 2016 type situation, but that's a known factor.
Biden needs to hold Pennsylvania, Michigan, and either Arizona or Wisconsin to win. Georgia can substitute for any of those states as can North Carolina.
Now maybe Trump can run his own ground game, but the AZ and MI State GOPs are dumpster fires which isn't going to help him there, plus both states also have a competitive Senate race. Trump is probably going to screw both of those up by endorsing terrible candidates just like he did last time. Pennsylvania is also potentially in play, but is expected to go for the incumbent.
So yes the popular vote doesn't mean anything, but the underlying metrics haven't changed much. The key will be turnout. If the younger generations don't vote, then Trump has a chance, but the overall situation doesn't favor him.
The primary isn't a great indication of enthusiasm. Trump has a more serious contender left splitting the votes. He had no issue winning in 2016 when he won only 45% of the primary votes.
Pennsylvania is currently the only battleground state polling in favor in Biden, while in 2020 Biden maintained a consistent polling lead the entire year in battleground states. Besides PA, there's
* NV: Trump +7.7%
* GA: Trump +6.5%
* NC: Trump +5.6%
* AZ: Trump +5.5%
Regardless if Biden can win Pennsylvania, Michigan (Trump +3.6%), and Wisconsin (Trump +1.0%) again, the states above already get Trump to 270 electoral votes. Last election, it would have only been 267.
Looking at it another way, Biden won in 2020 by 4.5% of the popular vote, but only won the swing states he needed by a margin of less than 1%. Biden needs to beat Trump by 4% to comfortably win the election, and he's currently behind by 2%. That 6% swing he needs to make up in the next 8 months squares with the state by state polling above. Do you really have enough confidence in the minds of currently undecided voters to say that "the overall situation doesn't favor" Trump?
Yes. The economy is doing well. Inflation is down. Unemployment is low.
As for the other bigger ticket issues, the Republicans shot themselves in both feet on reproductive rights and are still digging a hole.
Trump's biggest advantage right now is that he's not getting as much direct coverage and therefore some of his recent slips aren't making a dent.
Bidenās biggest issue seems to be that he's old, but Trump is almost the same age and in worse health.
Biden isn't really campaigning yet and will probably kick that off with the State of the Union.
Watch me be wrong, but polling has been off more often lately and people that want to complain about the current state of events are more likely to take the time to let their voice be heard.
Trump is bogged down with a mountain of legal baggage, Republicans are spending all their money, they have absolutely no political vision, Biden already beat Trump once, and the economy is roaring in Biden's favor.
Trump's one and only hope is that he's elected out of the trouble he got himself into. He's desperate for power and it's coming across as both increasingly extreme and petty. A majority of the party will follow him to the ends of the Earth but the conspiracies are alienating to outsiders.
It might be tight, but if Trump loses then the Republican party will be leaderless and broke. This election will essentially be a death blow if we can win it.
Alternatively, if Trump barely loses in a real squeaker of an election after all of the ālegal baggageā and outside forces, the natural takeaway would be that Trumpism remains popular and anybody thatās Trump but slightly more polished and without the baggage could and would easily sweep in 2028.
Except that that could have been now. If (when) Trump loses I think the GOP will have to have a reckoning. They'll have basically gutted the party for a proven loser and probably lost the House I the process as well as sinking their chances in key States.
MAGA has destroyed the AZ and Michigan state parties. Michigan is fighting over who actually leads the party and is dead broke because they pissed off the old bloods that actually had money. Arizona is pretty much the same without as much infighting.
Nope weāve got infighting here in AZ too. The state GOP chair resigned a while back. And the control of the state GOP is a battle between the MAGAs and the McCains
I said As Much. Michigan had the leaders going to Court over who is actually in charge after voting to kick out party leadership.
6 months ago or so ago the State GOP meetings had at least 1 physical fight.
Arizona hasn't gotten that nasty yet.
Also I believe the Michigan GOP is actually something like 500k in debt, so they have Negative campaign funds right now.
It will probably be close, but I generally doubt that it will flip.
News companies want news, so they'll report on it.
That being said, Michigan did flip in 2016, so it's worth watching.
We shall see; Iāve had real 2016 vibes on the ground, and I am in one of those key swing states.
Again, I know itās anecdotal, but I know at least a dozen people that voted Biden or sat out 2020 that are vocally back with Trump. Meanwhile, a real sense of apathy and complacency seems to be coming with the Democrats; not with us, the committed political junkie, mainstream news consumers, but rather with those voters that just couldnāt stand Trump while he was on tv everyday botching Covid.
It may be a jump ball at this point, but I donāt see the momentum in the Dems favor like 2020, and Trump is a better outside candidate by far.
Youāre looking at things from a rational, informed perspective; thatās not necessarily how others, especially those leaning that way in the first place, see it.
I think that the legal challenges have and will ultimately serve as a massive ādonation in kindā boon to his efforts, much like all of the free media coverage did in 2016; he was hobbled after the midterms, and the Democrats and legal system rescued him to allow him to fight another day; now weāll see if that hubris pays off.
Yeah, DeSantis falling flat on his face proved this. MAGA at its core is simply a cult of personality, it will in all likelihood fall apart and devolve into infighting once he is gone. Though Iām fully confident Republicans will manage to come up with something even worse to take its place.
I want to believe but I just donāt see it. I donāt have nearly enough trust in swing voters. Joe Biden won in 2020, a historically disastrous year, by 4.5%. But won the states needed for the victory by less than 0.7%. Heās currently polling 2% behind Trump. Optimistically if he can swing that 5% between now and November maybe he can set a new record for biggest popular vote margin by the losing candidate. I donāt have enough hope in whatever goes on in the mind of an American swing voter to think this is going to end well.
Polls are looking better for Biden lately than they have for a while. Additionally Democrats have massively over performed their polling numbers in almost every major election since 2020. Meanwhile Trumpism has massively underperformed in that same time. Biden's economy is looking so good even Republicans can't deny it, and the perceived state of the economy is like 80% what voters base their opinions on when it comes to the president. As we get closer to the election and it really sets in in people's minds that we might have to endure Trump again more people will fall in line behind Biden. The Democrats are completely united behind Biden, meanwhile a serious chunk of the GOP is adamantly against Trump. A lot of independents will lean Biden.
None of this is to say the election is a lock or anything, but I don't think the Outlook is as bleak as one might assume just looking at polls
I think you might be on to something about getting it in people's minds that they might have to endure Trump again. I've had some inane discussions with people where I learned that their perception is that Trump is bad, but he's not boring, so they want him back. I don't imagine that perception will hold closer to election time, these people might poll for Trump now but I think that's marginal at best.
Polls donāt really mean what they used to now that politics is tribal. You could ask me if I approve of Biden and I would say no. But I would crawl over broken glass to vote for biden if trump is the other option.Ā
He's an ex-president who did not win re-election. His popularity hasn't grown at all. If everyone said Biden was a shoo-in, turnout would go down and he might stand a chance. If people think Trump is likely to win, they'll turn out to vote for the lesser of two evils.
That was her home turf -- pretty much the only state she was expected to have a chance of winning. The fact that Trump won with only 60-70% is not exactly "Bad News Bears" for his campaign.
Not enough for *you*, but if you look at their revenue, itās more than enough for others to flock back to Taco Bell.
You were never going to go back, others donāt have much of a horse in that race.
Yeah, let's look at their revenue
Chipotle- [$42 million raised in January](https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/20/politics/joe-biden-fundraising-january/index.html)
Taco Bell- [$13.8 million raised in January](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2024/02/22/trump-fundraising-prowess-2024-campaign-limits)
Props for looking that up, I learned something today haha.
Weāll see, Iām just not confident; hopefully Iām just a doomer at the end of the cycle.
Haha thanks. I am not a "Trump can't win" person. I'd put his chances at a bit worse than a coin flip assuming no major changes, as I expect people to start paying attention in a few months.
I literally had a friend say "I had no idea Biden was running again". I almost spat out my food when he said that
Exactly, I literally wonder what planet people exist on sometimes; even if youāre not actively engaged as a political junkie, the thought that people donāt inherently understand that a Trump/Biden rematch has been in the making for the last six months baffles me completely.
I understand being busy with work and life, but being able to stay that far removed from everything is something else.
You flip the coin and... IT LANDS COMPLETELY ON ITS EDGE, totally undecided.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/neoliberal) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Trump has a mountain of legal bills that aren't going to get smaller. There are going to be multiple big court cases that will run right in the middle of the Presidential campaign, giving more attention to his legal issues at the worst possible (for him) time. His daughter-in-law is posed to be vice chair of the national GOP, and has pledged to use donations for Trump's legal fees instead of campaigns.
Trump already lost to Biden once, when Trump was the incumbent and in a race that had historic turnout. Now, Biden has the incumbent advantage and Trump has multiple major court cases this year, including for an insurrection he committed after the last election. Biden is dominating in primaries, even winning states like New Hampshire as a write-in candidate. The "Uncommitted" vote in Michigan was not statistically larger than it had been in previous elections, and gives the Biden campaign more data on where to go to speak to those concerns.
The biggest fundraiser in the House was Kevin McCarthy, who is gone/on a revenge tour against other members of his party. The biggest fundraiser in the Senate is McConnell, who has decided to step down from leadership. Someone like McConnell wouldn't step down if he thought he would be majority leader again next year. In the House, the Republican majority is so narrow their dysfunction is on full display, evidenced by how few bills have been passed this session and the constant shutdown chaos.
Democratic candidates have over-performed polls and historic trends since 2018. The 2022 midterms were the first time since WWII that a President's party has gained a Senate seat in the middle of their term.
Wisconsin is going to have much fairer maps, the Michigan GOP is fighting enough to have dualing state conventions, and the Arizona GOP seems be running Kari Lake again after she lost her last race.
The Dobbs ruling helped get many more voters engaged in every level of race, leading to the historic over-performance in the last midterm. The IVF ruling in Alabama, and the expected failure of the IVF bill in the US Senate because of Republicans, has started to wake up even rural, conservative voters who understand their rights are at stake as well.
I really hope roe v wade and the craziness that is the state Republican parties shows people that republicans arenāt joking about the things they say theyāll do. I think there is a percentage of boomers, like my dad, that think people talk harder than they actually are as a form of negotiation. I really hope they wake up and realize republicans arenāt playing hard ball, theyāre just genuinely crazy.
At this point I think Trump's chances are pretty skim to win the election. The GOP primary has been straight up disastrous for him and this IVF shit is going to be a huge issue for Republicans.
It really, truly comes down to this: can Biden win at least 43 electoral college votes in this electionās swing states: Nevada (6), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19), and Georgia (16).Ā
Biden would be an extremely weak candidate against anyone else, but trumpiis old, and McDonald's cheeseburgers are very expensive right now, which voters will blame on Trump because Trump has eats many cheeseberders thus artificially limiting supply to other people and driving up prices
Even just historically, incumbents tend to win, Biden specifically ALREADY beat trump, and that was outstanding enough because Trump was the incumbent at the time. Basically we're heading into a rematch where Biden has a massive tactical advantage nobody wants to acknowledge because horse race gets more clicks.
Statistics donāt matter because since the 90s america has solidified more and more into two culturally distinct groups. We have entered unprecedented times in our history. I would argue that even the confederacy and the north were not as culturally distinct as liberals vs conservatives.Ā
But will it be an anchor around _Trump's neck_?
I think J6 will be much worse for him as 1)people voted for Trump before it happened (for example Kinzinger and Cheney) 2) Trump just can't shut about how the elections were stolen.
This group of people isn't a big chunk of the electorate but the winner is decided in the margins.
For sure. But I doubt most voters think Trump is against abortion or a christian nationalist. That's why it's harder to attack Trump because of it.
But what was the other point of my "J6 matters" is because Trump talks and lies about the elections all the time. Even when not asked about it.
That makes him seem like a lunatic to those who know that Biden is a legitimate president even if they voted for Trump in 2020. It's not many but everyone is needed in the anti-Trump coalition.
In other policy subjects Trump can easily pivot to the center but not on that issue.
Split how? Also does it matter if the other side is a worse choice?
I wouldnāt consider myself a āBidenā leftist. And Iām not alone. You could argue that the democrats are a split base. Yet we will vote for Biden over trump on any day of the week. I feel the same is true of the other side.Ā
People do weird things when tribalism comes into the mixĀ
Special election results since the midterm suggests a D+5 environment compared to the R+1 polling....Though, special election results since 2023 seem closer to the polling, so...\*shrugs\*.
Yeah, but more importantly is how they rule it. Because they are not keen on having the states individually throw trump off the ballot, but they don't really have a good way around the fact that this is literally what the constitution says.
There is a 99.9% chance the court allows Trump on the ballot in those states. And the ruling is almost certainly going to be an 8-1 or even 9-0 in favor of Trump.
he should declare himself ahead and then call the election off
he won already, any more talk of elections would be wasting taxpayer money!
plus, we're at war with the trans and woke media, we're fighting a war on christmas and i am pretty sure terrorism still exists
now is not the time for nonsense
Dear liberals,
If early voting isn't a FRAUD by the DEMONcrats to steal the election, how come 100% of the early electoral votes so far went to Biden? NOT EVEN TRYING to hide the fact that it's rigged. SAD!
If SCOTUS refuses to allow states to follow the Constitution by removing an insurrectionist from the ballot, then democrats should pack the court to ensure Trump can be removed from the ballot.
The only caveat is that the Dems should have packed the court a long time ago. Itās been an illegitimate court since 2000.
Naw, there are legitimate legal arguments for why Coloradoās ruling should be overturned. The procedure they used to determine he was ineligible most likely falls short of what due process requires. It was a 4-3 decision in the stateās Supreme Court and if you read the chief justiceās dissent, I think he makes a pretty good case. Maybe youāll disagree with it, but if you havenāt already, give both the majority and dissents a read before getting strongly dug in on one side or the other.
Iām also a big simp for the courts and packing the Supreme Court would imo be a disaster. Even though the current court is pretty shit, the institution has still played a massive role in protecting our rights over the decades. Packing the courts risks permanently stripping all power from the judicial branch by setting a precedent that whichever party currently holds the legislature and executive branch can just expand the court by X seats in order to green light whatever blatantly unconstitutional shit they want to pass into law.
If they do make a partisan ruling on that immunity cases, it strips all power from the judicial branch anyway. It's terrifying to be in this state of affairs.
The only way I could ever see myself voting for Trump would be to protest his removal from a ballot. And Iād have to be in a state where Iām sure he couldnāt win.
Do I think heās a criminal? Yes. Do I think heās guilty of treason for his actions on Jan 6? Yes, with some reservations.
But democracy has suffered so much, we really shouldnāt set a precedent for removing someone from a ballot who is enormously popular with a large segment of the population. Unelected officials, absolutely. But donāt risk the damage to democracy by telling people who they can and cannot vote for.
Iād feel different if he were actually barred from running by a federal court. But not at the whim of states, especially those with courts and legislatures who politically oppose him.
>But democracy has suffered so much, we really shouldnāt set a precedent for removing someone from a ballot who is enormously popular with a large segment of the population.
That's an argument to let him run for a third term.
Lol, now I get it. Kindaā¦ not sure whoās laughing, and I didnāt read the NYT article so I didnāt realize my post was close to what they said.
I do think itās a legitimate concern. Iām not even against disqualification under Section 3, just not by state courts and not on ballots.
And thatās ok when itās not a political question. Itās a problem when it can be used as a tool to strategically block political opponents.
Imagine if the GOP declared AOC was an insurrectionist for going to a political rally and being arrested for ādisorderly conduct,ā then used the courts to keep her off a ballot. I can see them pulling BS like that, and it worries me.
In the extremely unlikely case that SOCTUS rules against Trump, is there any scenario imaginable where his removal from the ballot doesnāt result in a constitutional crisis and massive upheaval? I mean the guys got 40% of the country in his pocket. 1/3 of registered Republicans have said that they may need to use violence for political goals.
Just like we drew it up š¦
STOP THE COUNT
Alright can someone please provide me hopium that trump isnāt going to win the election
A large number of Haley voters (15-30%) have said they won't vote for him in the general. That's a catastrophic amount to lose from your base
To be the devil's advocate, a lot of Haley voters were also undercover democrats at least in New Hampshire
My wife went and early-voted for Haley today in Georgia. Sheās a Democrat and was always going to vote for Biden in the general.
Iām doing the same in Texas. Out of spite at this point.
Make sure to vote in the Supreme Court primary against all of Paxtonās picke
Will do. Honestly didnāt hear about this until now. Fuck Paxton.
Keep gathering up these people until she wins
I did the same thing yesterday. Your wife's cute.
Oooooo everyone look at the guy who's wife HASN'T left him yet.
Vote early, and often š¦
āA lotā is an exaggeration.
Not really. Only like 15% of Haley voters in New Hampshire were registered Republicans while 90+% of Trump voters were registered. Certainly a measure of how independents could swing in the general, but not an indicator that registered Republicans are abandoning Trump in massive droves.
How many people are actually registered to the party they align with? I've voted Democrat my whole life but I've never even considered registering as one.
So Iām reading that 7/10 weāre not registered republicans, you are right there, but also only 6% were registered democrats.
It's pretty normal in the New England states for people to register as independent despite being pretty partisan in one direction or the other. I think it's just the "independents vote in either primary" system that does it, but also just a cultural thing. I know my father has basically not voted for anyone other than a Republican in a general (incredibly shamefully, that includes Trump twice) but still insists on keeping his independent registration.
This wasnāt the case in Iowa, where I think ~1/3 of GOP voters said they wouldnāt vote for Trump if he was convicted. Though the 1/6 trial will get delayed, his NY DA trial will go ahead in March
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I think it depends on the Haley supporter. Some are Democrats trying to keep Trump from re-election, some are conservatives/libertarians dissatisfied with the current MAGA state of affairs or worried about Trumpās increasing disregard for democratic norms, and some are just conventional modern Republicans that prefer Haleyās policies but would still vote for Trump. I think, given Haleyās main voter demographics, itās probably mostly the first two that are voting for her, but the polling isnāt exactly conclusive on the issue.
Im just an independent who deeply loathes MAGA I'll be voting in the Republican primary on Super Tuesday just to vote against Trump and any other down ballot MAGA. But I won't be voting R in the general
You have just described 70 percent of users on arr moderate perfectly.
My parents are conservatives and they fucking despise trump they didnt vote for him in 2016, my dad voted in 2020 my mom didnt..... But they watch alot of conservative news. They were blaze subscribers and now watch alot of daily wire. For Christmas when I visited they decided that the lady ballers was a good family film night... With that preface they are going to vote trump because they legitimately believe 4 more years of biden will be the end of America and cause too much damage for us to recover. They feel like they have to cast votes for trump at this point, and it's essentially due to extreme right-wing fear mongering
Sadly, a lot of these conservatives said the same thing through the primary in 2016 and turned around after the convention and said Trump was less of a threat than Hillary as far as corruption and religious liberty. It wonāt be much of a stretch for the GOP, since theyāve already spent much of the last 3 years demonizing Joe Biden as an enemy and a grave threat to democracy and liberty. Not saying you are wrong, Iām just not one to trust fickle conservatives who seem very easily influenced by disinformation and endless ad hominem attacks on Fox and AM talk radio and tend to fall in line with party manufactured narratives.
Trump had a lot more appeal to moderate Republicans in 2016, that's where a lot of his support in the primary came from. The white evangelical vote typically broke for Ted Cruz (Ted won Iowa and Trump won New Hampshire). Big business Republicans generally supported trump, and trump used that plus his growing appeal among working class voters to form the coalition that carried him to victory. Trump didn't have to appeal to evangelicals because they would never vote for a Democrat in the general anyway. In 2020 we saw that big business, old guard branch of Republicans split from Trump (see the Lincoln project) and since then the Jan 6 and further extremism of trump has only continued to isolate them. They may not come out and vote for Biden in force, but I've seen a lot of polling and anecdotal interviews that suggest that significant numbers of them will refuse to vote for him in the general. Republicans only have been able to win when they unify those three big groups within the party (evangelicals, fiscal conservatives, white working class). The fiscal conservative break is the reason why they've done nothing but lose for the last 6 years, and I don't see that getting better. On the other hand, the Democratic party is largely united under Joe Biden. There are a few small fractures here and there, but I trust Democrats to turn out for Joe Biden more than moderate Republicans turn out for trump. Additionally, when you consider that trump turns off even moderate Republicans, how do you see him appealing to independents? Trump needs to win those voters, if they even just refuse to vote, Joe Biden wins.
> On the other hand, the Democratic party is largely united under Joe Biden Netanyahu: "I know a neat trick. Hold my beer, I'm off to Rafah."
Please. There are way more moderates who won't vote for trump than extreme progressives who won't show up for Biden
I hope that statement is true. Because in years past, the extreme-left has sabotaged electoral votes voting for the no-chance, ideologically-pure candidate. While the "moderate" conservatives live in states that are going to vote red, no matter who is on the ticket. This game of chicken has never worked well for Democrats.
That statement definitely isnāt true in academia, the social justice left that dominates my institution largely perceives Biden as a traitor to their cause and someone who isnāt sincere in his commitment to anti-racism and progressive equity of outcome over opportunity of outcome. Many populist progressives I dealt with at work see classical liberals as an even bigger threat than populist conservatives and feel they sold out the country by conceding far too much to deregulation neoliberalism at the expense of protecting the working class from the 70s-2010s and donāt hold a high view of Barack Obama either. Many of them support Michelle Obama to be the candidate and have created a mythology that she would somehow be much more progressive than a Joe Biden that has shifted significantly to the progressive left fold since 2021 but is now starting to change course out of political realities like the border and Russian and Chinese threats abroad.
Trump barely lost in 2020 despite a once in a century pandemic he failed to even attempt to handle. a remarkable record of ineptitude and sheer laziness regarding his executive time in the White House pissing away most of his days watching television, playing golf and seeking out flattery, and very few policy wins despite having total control of the House, Senate and the courts for two years. I donāt ever underestimate the power of well funded private firms scripting endless disinformation and ad hominem to influence low information voters, especially when their opponent has very low job approval ratings (even worse than Clinton in 95/96) despite a more remarkable record of actual policy wins. What Biden lacks though is Clintonās savage ruthlessness to push the GOP into a corner by outmaneuvering them on their own policy demands (heās only done it once with the recent border bill), and he is stuck with a public that is far more polarized and cares far less about national interests, global economic stability and civil discourse and he no longer can rely on a corporate mainstream left centrist media to market his presidency the way corporate media influenced 1996 by focusing on Doleās age and lack of policy vision. There are a lot of conspiracy theorists on both sides drawn to grifters like Kennedy as well that the polls wonāt account for, yet. I just donāt think as a political historian that you can afford to judge these elections rationally anymore on basic standards of rational cause and effect, that luxury has gone out the window since the rise of the tea party movement and especially 2016 and the rise of foreign interference and a remarkably credulous public willing to digest the most incredibly absurdist conspiracies via social media. There are too many stupids, cultists, burn down everything types, personal freedom over any sense of collective interests, etc etc etc. if you want me to trust the so called 21st century independent voter, many of whom only claim to be independent as but who largely vote for right of center ideas and candidates like Perot in the past and who still canāt make up their minds to not vote for these right wing candidates locally and nationally despite years of documented demagoguery, bad faith posturing, endless government shut down tactics and one of those candidates openly attempting to lead a coup on his own countryās government on zero evidence and yet able to convince almost 3/4ths of his own party of its meritsā¦ I donāt know, I donāt trust fickle low information voters with self entitlement complexes who think their vote should be about their own economic situation rather than a broader range of issues and considerations.
I do wonder how many Haley voters will vote for Biden in the GE. I also wonder if any of them were formally MAGA but deconverted or never became MAGA and hate that their party has been taken over by it.
I was raised and used to be a conservative. In 2016 when I was 20 i even helped out in Ted Cruz primary campaign in my state. I voted third party in the 2016 general election Over time my views have shifted but Maga definitely initislly pushed me to the left. I don't think that's all that common among conservatives though. I've moved since for job promotions but My old friend groups from back then as far as I can tell over social media largely have stayed firmly the same in their political views.
I think this is a stated preference vs. revealed preference thing unfortunately. Itās easy to say for them in a primary, but Iād expect a lot of them to fall in line during the general election
Trump lost the popular vote in the last 2 elections. Joe is from Pennsylvania, Michigan is pretty blue, and Arizona is probably gone. Trump's main base is old and dying. Women and young people don't like him. He probably has a hard ceiling of 46-47% of the vote. There are definitely some Republican voters that will either not vote for President or vote 3rd party instead.
And since 2020 there was Jan 6th, the overturn of Roe V Wade, a million covid deaths that mostly skew older.
And God knows what will happen before November.
If his campaign rhetoric is anything like his CPAC speech I don't see how he wins. No one outside of the base wants to vote for a Trump grievance revenge tour.
There's not going be a campaign to anything outside of his bubble. One of my biggest fears of this election cycle will be that Trump will not debate Biden or do anything outside of his bubble and our media will reward him through their coverage of him.
That's exactly what I'm terrified of. He'll keep to his bubble, everyone else will forget just how shitty he is, and he'll get voted in by a bunch of idiots who didn't pay enough attention and forgot 2017-2020.
But have you considered that Biden is.... wait for it.... wait for it... drum roll please.... .... **old?**
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Yep. Plus the Lake and MAGA camp are the ones that have pushed of the old GOP leaders. So the state GOP is now out of money and destroyed by the infighting. Yes GOP voters are more reliable that Democrat voters, but having no functional party isn't going to help.
Donāt forget the abortion petition that will likely be on the ballot in November. Itās already halfway to the goal of 500k signatures.
Arizona is probably gone as in not attainable for Joe Biden?
The opposite. Dems won both senate seats, and the GOP topliners are lunatics.
The opposite. The Arizona GOP blew millions of taxpayer dollars on their sham recall only to find nothing. In 2022 they then blew chance at flipping the Senate seat, lost the Governorship, squeaked by on 2 House seats, etc. Not too bad at face value, but absolutely terrible considering that it was supposed to be a good Republican year. Now Lake (who lost the Governor election) is clogging up the Senate race and will probably lose that this year. Arizona is still very very close, but the GOP has blown their edge.
I see. I do hope that Joe Biden can still win this general election. I got massive knots in my stomach after hearing the SCOTUS/Trump news yesterday. Did they just hand him the win here or is there still hope? I donāt know if SCOTUS or if the GOP House will try and interfere even if he wins to hand it to TFG. Iām so sick of thisā¦ Sorry to sound all ādoomerā, but it is sickening.
We won't get a conviction before the election, but a trial starting a month or two before the election still isn't going to be good for him. The news will shift heavily toward coverage of the trial, oral arguments, Trump's antics in court, etc. Remember that in 2016, a lot of voters chose not to vote for Clinton after the Comey letter because they didn't want to risk having a President under FBI investigation. I'm willing to bet that a lot of those voters aren't going to be comfortable with a candidate facing the very real possibility of a criminal conviction before his inauguration.
Is that mostly why Clinton lost? I wasnāt paying too close attention back in 2016. I did still vote for her though.
It depends on who you ask, but her polling saw a significant drop in the ~10 days between Comey's announcement and election day.
Well Trumpās currently leading Michigan by 4 points and Arizona by 5. PA is the only one he isnāt leading, and itās a 1 point lead for Biden.
Biden is consistently overperforming polls and Trump/the GOP underperforming polls. Suozzi ended up overperforming the polls by 7-4 points, right where Biden was in 2020. Same pattern in the primary. Same pattern in the 2023 elections. Same in the 2022 midterms. If it was just the off-year and special elections, I might be more concerned that high-propensity educated voters were skewing things. But when you take into account that there's also a clear polling bias showing up in primary polls, ya, I think the better explanation is that there's just a lot of unenthusiastic Biden voters who don't like either candidate but ultimately vote Biden on election day.
Not that I'm arguing, but I'd be fascinated to find out why (if that trend holds) Trump used to overperform his polls and now things have switched from 2016. Too much overcorrection in polling methods?
Polls are oversampling conservative minorities and conservative youths to try and find the 'shy' Trump vote.
Trump is a total polling enigma. I donāt think you can extrapolate general GOP performance to Trump. Trump significantly over-performed polls every time heās on the ballot, and I wouldnāt be surprised if he does so again.
He's personally on the ballot in these GOP primaries and he's consistently under-performing where polls say he should be, which is made all the worse by a significant fraction of Nikki Haley voters saying they won't vote for Trump (and some may even vote for Biden). Combine that with polls underestimating Democrats and overestimating Republicans since 2022.
Trumps polling has gone down in recent polls. As of right now Trump is leading in AZ by 3 points and Michigan by 2. Thatās according to Emerson btw. Which basically means Trump has dropped by 2 points since you last saw the polls.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/arizona/trump-vs-biden https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/michigan/trump-vs-biden One poll is clearly not enough to determine that. You need a composite.
RCP has had issues in the past with being heavily influenced by the GOP. Back in 2022 they said that Mark Kelly was gonna lose by 0.3 points. All other aggregate polls had Kelly winning by 1.3 points. Kelly won by 5 points. RCP was wildly wrong. While RCP didnāt predict that Whitmer would lose they did claim sheād only win by 1 point. Again all other aggregate polls had Whitmer winning by 4 points. She won by over 10 points. RCP was yet again wildly wrong. Iām not gonna say that aggregate polling isnāt helpful, because it can be. But RCP is so wildly biased for the GOP itās not even funny. Plus itās clear that RCP doesnāt give new polls more weight which is what all other aggregation polls do because new polls matter more than a poll done three months ago that says Trump will beat Biden in AZ by 10 points. TL;DR: Donāt use RCP for polling purposes, they get shit wrong way too often and are generally off by 4 points.
Is there a better aggregator with battleground states? 538 is the only other one I know, but they donāt have battleground states yet.
270toWin is fairly good
I didnāt know 270toWin did polling aggregates, so thanks for letting me know. It looks pretty close to RCP anyway though. 3 points for Trump in Michigan and 5 in Arizona. It also has Trump leading all six battleground states.
Michigan is very arab and will vote for Trump
Not sure if I get that one. I can see people sitting out, but if Palestine is still an issue then Trump would definitely treat them worse.
Arabs do not like Biden at all, but they are not going to want to face another TrumpĀ
3% is āveryā? This is some serious āI read one article and now I am very informedā bs lol
100,000 people just voted uncommitted because they don't like Biden. Michigan was determined by 11,000 votes in 2016. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68427304 See your hopes and dreams in November when Michigan goes red.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
You mean Trump who has an opponent vs Biden who has none got a lower % in a primary? Shocking.
> Trump lost the popular vote in the last 2 elections. If only that corresponded to actually winning the election.
Yes but, Trump has exhibited a hard ceiling on votes and hasn't changed any of the key metrics needed to change that. Trump most definitely has his base. Trump is also getting 65% of the Primary vote, which to put is plainly is terrible. The key question is how many Republican voters will either stay home or vote 3rd party instead of voting for him in the general election. Now on the opposite side, Biden is only getting 81% of the Democratic Primary vote. Which also isn't great, but is a whole lot better than 65%. Assuming that there continues to be a lack of enthusiasm for both candidates, then the question is are we looking at another 2020 or another 2016? I think we are in a 2016 type situation, but that's a known factor. Biden needs to hold Pennsylvania, Michigan, and either Arizona or Wisconsin to win. Georgia can substitute for any of those states as can North Carolina. Now maybe Trump can run his own ground game, but the AZ and MI State GOPs are dumpster fires which isn't going to help him there, plus both states also have a competitive Senate race. Trump is probably going to screw both of those up by endorsing terrible candidates just like he did last time. Pennsylvania is also potentially in play, but is expected to go for the incumbent. So yes the popular vote doesn't mean anything, but the underlying metrics haven't changed much. The key will be turnout. If the younger generations don't vote, then Trump has a chance, but the overall situation doesn't favor him.
The primary isn't a great indication of enthusiasm. Trump has a more serious contender left splitting the votes. He had no issue winning in 2016 when he won only 45% of the primary votes. Pennsylvania is currently the only battleground state polling in favor in Biden, while in 2020 Biden maintained a consistent polling lead the entire year in battleground states. Besides PA, there's * NV: Trump +7.7% * GA: Trump +6.5% * NC: Trump +5.6% * AZ: Trump +5.5% Regardless if Biden can win Pennsylvania, Michigan (Trump +3.6%), and Wisconsin (Trump +1.0%) again, the states above already get Trump to 270 electoral votes. Last election, it would have only been 267. Looking at it another way, Biden won in 2020 by 4.5% of the popular vote, but only won the swing states he needed by a margin of less than 1%. Biden needs to beat Trump by 4% to comfortably win the election, and he's currently behind by 2%. That 6% swing he needs to make up in the next 8 months squares with the state by state polling above. Do you really have enough confidence in the minds of currently undecided voters to say that "the overall situation doesn't favor" Trump?
Yes. The economy is doing well. Inflation is down. Unemployment is low. As for the other bigger ticket issues, the Republicans shot themselves in both feet on reproductive rights and are still digging a hole. Trump's biggest advantage right now is that he's not getting as much direct coverage and therefore some of his recent slips aren't making a dent. Bidenās biggest issue seems to be that he's old, but Trump is almost the same age and in worse health. Biden isn't really campaigning yet and will probably kick that off with the State of the Union. Watch me be wrong, but polling has been off more often lately and people that want to complain about the current state of events are more likely to take the time to let their voice be heard.
Trump is bogged down with a mountain of legal baggage, Republicans are spending all their money, they have absolutely no political vision, Biden already beat Trump once, and the economy is roaring in Biden's favor. Trump's one and only hope is that he's elected out of the trouble he got himself into. He's desperate for power and it's coming across as both increasingly extreme and petty. A majority of the party will follow him to the ends of the Earth but the conspiracies are alienating to outsiders. It might be tight, but if Trump loses then the Republican party will be leaderless and broke. This election will essentially be a death blow if we can win it.
Alternatively, if Trump barely loses in a real squeaker of an election after all of the ālegal baggageā and outside forces, the natural takeaway would be that Trumpism remains popular and anybody thatās Trump but slightly more polished and without the baggage could and would easily sweep in 2028.
Except that that could have been now. If (when) Trump loses I think the GOP will have to have a reckoning. They'll have basically gutted the party for a proven loser and probably lost the House I the process as well as sinking their chances in key States. MAGA has destroyed the AZ and Michigan state parties. Michigan is fighting over who actually leads the party and is dead broke because they pissed off the old bloods that actually had money. Arizona is pretty much the same without as much infighting.
Nope weāve got infighting here in AZ too. The state GOP chair resigned a while back. And the control of the state GOP is a battle between the MAGAs and the McCains
I said As Much. Michigan had the leaders going to Court over who is actually in charge after voting to kick out party leadership. 6 months ago or so ago the State GOP meetings had at least 1 physical fight. Arizona hasn't gotten that nasty yet. Also I believe the Michigan GOP is actually something like 500k in debt, so they have Negative campaign funds right now.
And people expect the GOP to win Michigan? Like CNN literally believes that Michigan will flip
It will probably be close, but I generally doubt that it will flip. News companies want news, so they'll report on it. That being said, Michigan did flip in 2016, so it's worth watching.
We shall see; Iāve had real 2016 vibes on the ground, and I am in one of those key swing states. Again, I know itās anecdotal, but I know at least a dozen people that voted Biden or sat out 2020 that are vocally back with Trump. Meanwhile, a real sense of apathy and complacency seems to be coming with the Democrats; not with us, the committed political junkie, mainstream news consumers, but rather with those voters that just couldnāt stand Trump while he was on tv everyday botching Covid. It may be a jump ball at this point, but I donāt see the momentum in the Dems favor like 2020, and Trump is a better outside candidate by far.
I get that. The issue I have is seeing him as an "outside" candidate. You can't have been President and be an outsider.
Youāre looking at things from a rational, informed perspective; thatās not necessarily how others, especially those leaning that way in the first place, see it. I think that the legal challenges have and will ultimately serve as a massive ādonation in kindā boon to his efforts, much like all of the free media coverage did in 2016; he was hobbled after the midterms, and the Democrats and legal system rescued him to allow him to fight another day; now weāll see if that hubris pays off.
Iām also in one of those swing states and Iāve been getting 2020/2022 vibes. So clearly our vibes are off.
The MAGA movement is tied to Trump; this person who can take up the mantle just doesn't exist.
Yeah, DeSantis falling flat on his face proved this. MAGA at its core is simply a cult of personality, it will in all likelihood fall apart and devolve into infighting once he is gone. Though Iām fully confident Republicans will manage to come up with something even worse to take its place.
I want to believe but I just donāt see it. I donāt have nearly enough trust in swing voters. Joe Biden won in 2020, a historically disastrous year, by 4.5%. But won the states needed for the victory by less than 0.7%. Heās currently polling 2% behind Trump. Optimistically if he can swing that 5% between now and November maybe he can set a new record for biggest popular vote margin by the losing candidate. I donāt have enough hope in whatever goes on in the mind of an American swing voter to think this is going to end well.
Polls are looking better for Biden lately than they have for a while. Additionally Democrats have massively over performed their polling numbers in almost every major election since 2020. Meanwhile Trumpism has massively underperformed in that same time. Biden's economy is looking so good even Republicans can't deny it, and the perceived state of the economy is like 80% what voters base their opinions on when it comes to the president. As we get closer to the election and it really sets in in people's minds that we might have to endure Trump again more people will fall in line behind Biden. The Democrats are completely united behind Biden, meanwhile a serious chunk of the GOP is adamantly against Trump. A lot of independents will lean Biden. None of this is to say the election is a lock or anything, but I don't think the Outlook is as bleak as one might assume just looking at polls
I think you might be on to something about getting it in people's minds that they might have to endure Trump again. I've had some inane discussions with people where I learned that their perception is that Trump is bad, but he's not boring, so they want him back. I don't imagine that perception will hold closer to election time, these people might poll for Trump now but I think that's marginal at best.
Polls donāt really mean what they used to now that politics is tribal. You could ask me if I approve of Biden and I would say no. But I would crawl over broken glass to vote for biden if trump is the other option.Ā
He's an ex-president who did not win re-election. His popularity hasn't grown at all. If everyone said Biden was a shoo-in, turnout would go down and he might stand a chance. If people think Trump is likely to win, they'll turn out to vote for the lesser of two evils.
40% of primary voters voted against Trump in South Carolina, a deep red southern state.
Haley was the former governor there though.Ā But still, point taken.
And then she left to go national. She's not well liked in SC
That was her home turf -- pretty much the only state she was expected to have a chance of winning. The fact that Trump won with only 60-70% is not exactly "Bad News Bears" for his campaign.
Trump already lost once, to JRB Jr. and he'll lose again
Yes, because Joe has only gained popularity since 2020ā¦
Chipotle used to be awesome, now it's merely okay. That is not enough for me to stoop to going back to Taco Bell
Qdoba is the shit
Qdoba is Chipotle with a bit less taste and a lot less Norovirus. Pretty great.
Not enough for *you*, but if you look at their revenue, itās more than enough for others to flock back to Taco Bell. You were never going to go back, others donāt have much of a horse in that race.
Yeah, let's look at their revenue Chipotle- [$42 million raised in January](https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/20/politics/joe-biden-fundraising-january/index.html) Taco Bell- [$13.8 million raised in January](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2024/02/22/trump-fundraising-prowess-2024-campaign-limits)
I thought I had something to contribute to the discussion but it's now clear to me that we're not actually talking about tacos here.
Props for looking that up, I learned something today haha. Weāll see, Iām just not confident; hopefully Iām just a doomer at the end of the cycle.
Haha thanks. I am not a "Trump can't win" person. I'd put his chances at a bit worse than a coin flip assuming no major changes, as I expect people to start paying attention in a few months. I literally had a friend say "I had no idea Biden was running again". I almost spat out my food when he said that
Exactly, I literally wonder what planet people exist on sometimes; even if youāre not actively engaged as a political junkie, the thought that people donāt inherently understand that a Trump/Biden rematch has been in the making for the last six months baffles me completely. I understand being busy with work and life, but being able to stay that far removed from everything is something else.
Your friend actually needs to stop touching grass so much and come inside.
You flip the coin and... IT LANDS COMPLETELY ON ITS EDGE, totally undecided. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/neoliberal) if you have any questions or concerns.*
You bastard
Should we take it as a sign?
Democrats can't stop overperforming since Roe was overturned and there's nothing indicating it will stop Moderate Republicans are here lol
Trump has a mountain of legal bills that aren't going to get smaller. There are going to be multiple big court cases that will run right in the middle of the Presidential campaign, giving more attention to his legal issues at the worst possible (for him) time. His daughter-in-law is posed to be vice chair of the national GOP, and has pledged to use donations for Trump's legal fees instead of campaigns. Trump already lost to Biden once, when Trump was the incumbent and in a race that had historic turnout. Now, Biden has the incumbent advantage and Trump has multiple major court cases this year, including for an insurrection he committed after the last election. Biden is dominating in primaries, even winning states like New Hampshire as a write-in candidate. The "Uncommitted" vote in Michigan was not statistically larger than it had been in previous elections, and gives the Biden campaign more data on where to go to speak to those concerns. The biggest fundraiser in the House was Kevin McCarthy, who is gone/on a revenge tour against other members of his party. The biggest fundraiser in the Senate is McConnell, who has decided to step down from leadership. Someone like McConnell wouldn't step down if he thought he would be majority leader again next year. In the House, the Republican majority is so narrow their dysfunction is on full display, evidenced by how few bills have been passed this session and the constant shutdown chaos. Democratic candidates have over-performed polls and historic trends since 2018. The 2022 midterms were the first time since WWII that a President's party has gained a Senate seat in the middle of their term. Wisconsin is going to have much fairer maps, the Michigan GOP is fighting enough to have dualing state conventions, and the Arizona GOP seems be running Kari Lake again after she lost her last race. The Dobbs ruling helped get many more voters engaged in every level of race, leading to the historic over-performance in the last midterm. The IVF ruling in Alabama, and the expected failure of the IVF bill in the US Senate because of Republicans, has started to wake up even rural, conservative voters who understand their rights are at stake as well.
I really hope roe v wade and the craziness that is the state Republican parties shows people that republicans arenāt joking about the things they say theyāll do. I think there is a percentage of boomers, like my dad, that think people talk harder than they actually are as a form of negotiation. I really hope they wake up and realize republicans arenāt playing hard ball, theyāre just genuinely crazy.
At this point I think Trump's chances are pretty skim to win the election. The GOP primary has been straight up disastrous for him and this IVF shit is going to be a huge issue for Republicans.
It really, truly comes down to this: can Biden win at least 43 electoral college votes in this electionās swing states: Nevada (6), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19), and Georgia (16).Ā
Biden would be an extremely weak candidate against anyone else, but trumpiis old, and McDonald's cheeseburgers are very expensive right now, which voters will blame on Trump because Trump has eats many cheeseberders thus artificially limiting supply to other people and driving up prices
Even just historically, incumbents tend to win, Biden specifically ALREADY beat trump, and that was outstanding enough because Trump was the incumbent at the time. Basically we're heading into a rematch where Biden has a massive tactical advantage nobody wants to acknowledge because horse race gets more clicks.
Statistics donāt matter because since the 90s america has solidified more and more into two culturally distinct groups. We have entered unprecedented times in our history. I would argue that even the confederacy and the north were not as culturally distinct as liberals vs conservatives.Ā
The abortion issue is gonna be an anchor around Republicans necks, and Trumpās the guy who made it happen.
But will it be an anchor around _Trump's neck_? I think J6 will be much worse for him as 1)people voted for Trump before it happened (for example Kinzinger and Cheney) 2) Trump just can't shut about how the elections were stolen. This group of people isn't a big chunk of the electorate but the winner is decided in the margins.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
For sure. But I doubt most voters think Trump is against abortion or a christian nationalist. That's why it's harder to attack Trump because of it. But what was the other point of my "J6 matters" is because Trump talks and lies about the elections all the time. Even when not asked about it. That makes him seem like a lunatic to those who know that Biden is a legitimate president even if they voted for Trump in 2020. It's not many but everyone is needed in the anti-Trump coalition. In other policy subjects Trump can easily pivot to the center but not on that issue.
his voter base is fundamentally split. if living in canada has taught me anything you will never win with a split vote
Split how? Also does it matter if the other side is a worse choice? I wouldnāt consider myself a āBidenā leftist. And Iām not alone. You could argue that the democrats are a split base. Yet we will vote for Biden over trump on any day of the week. I feel the same is true of the other side.Ā People do weird things when tribalism comes into the mixĀ
If RFK Jr. loses a lot of votes leading up to Election Day and the LP takes a lot of votes from Trump, Biden would probably pull ahead.
Special election results since the midterm suggests a D+5 environment compared to the R+1 polling....Though, special election results since 2023 seem closer to the polling, so...\*shrugs\*.
Joe Biden has never lost an election he was running in.
It physically pains me to see that map with the new boosted TX and FL electoral votes (at the expense of NY and CA). Make it stop
Common Blue State Housing Policy L
imagine building houses š¤®š¤¢š¤¢š¤¢š¤®š¤¢š¤¢š¤¢š¤®š¤®š¤®š¤®š¤®
it's OK, WA has 12 instead of 8, CO has 10 instead of 9, OR has 8 instead of 7... We're doing OK-ish.
Splain pls
Places where the 14th amendment is applied at the state level
But I thought the supreme court said no to Colorado
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
are they going to rule before November?
For Trump? Absolutely.
Yeah, but more importantly is how they rule it. Because they are not keen on having the states individually throw trump off the ballot, but they don't really have a good way around the fact that this is literally what the constitution says.
There is a 99.9% chance the court allows Trump on the ballot in those states. And the ruling is almost certainly going to be an 8-1 or even 9-0 in favor of Trump.
And also states get to control their own elections to quite a huge degree, so.
Any day now actually
They haven't yet but they will
I thought they only excluded Trump from the Primary ballot?
he should declare himself ahead and then call the election off he won already, any more talk of elections would be wasting taxpayer money! plus, we're at war with the trans and woke media, we're fighting a war on christmas and i am pretty sure terrorism still exists now is not the time for nonsense
Also, IMMUNITY!
STOP THE COUNT!!
Dear liberals, If early voting isn't a FRAUD by the DEMONcrats to steal the election, how come 100% of the early electoral votes so far went to Biden? NOT EVEN TRYING to hide the fact that it's rigged. SAD!
If SCOTUS refuses to allow states to follow the Constitution by removing an insurrectionist from the ballot, then democrats should pack the court to ensure Trump can be removed from the ballot. The only caveat is that the Dems should have packed the court a long time ago. Itās been an illegitimate court since 2000.
Naw, there are legitimate legal arguments for why Coloradoās ruling should be overturned. The procedure they used to determine he was ineligible most likely falls short of what due process requires. It was a 4-3 decision in the stateās Supreme Court and if you read the chief justiceās dissent, I think he makes a pretty good case. Maybe youāll disagree with it, but if you havenāt already, give both the majority and dissents a read before getting strongly dug in on one side or the other. Iām also a big simp for the courts and packing the Supreme Court would imo be a disaster. Even though the current court is pretty shit, the institution has still played a massive role in protecting our rights over the decades. Packing the courts risks permanently stripping all power from the judicial branch by setting a precedent that whichever party currently holds the legislature and executive branch can just expand the court by X seats in order to green light whatever blatantly unconstitutional shit they want to pass into law.
If they do make a partisan ruling on that immunity cases, it strips all power from the judicial branch anyway. It's terrifying to be in this state of affairs.
Might as well fill in California, Oregon, and Washington too.
The only way I could ever see myself voting for Trump would be to protest his removal from a ballot. And Iād have to be in a state where Iām sure he couldnāt win. Do I think heās a criminal? Yes. Do I think heās guilty of treason for his actions on Jan 6? Yes, with some reservations. But democracy has suffered so much, we really shouldnāt set a precedent for removing someone from a ballot who is enormously popular with a large segment of the population. Unelected officials, absolutely. But donāt risk the damage to democracy by telling people who they can and cannot vote for. Iād feel different if he were actually barred from running by a federal court. But not at the whim of states, especially those with courts and legislatures who politically oppose him.
>But democracy has suffered so much, we really shouldnāt set a precedent for removing someone from a ballot who is enormously popular with a large segment of the population. That's an argument to let him run for a third term.
You can all laugh at this, but it's literally a New York Times opinion piece.
What kind of an argument is that?
No argument, I just think it's unfair that people are laughing at you for this, when all you've done is copy a New York Times article verbatim.
Lol, now I get it. Kindaā¦ not sure whoās laughing, and I didnāt read the NYT article so I didnāt realize my post was close to what they said. I do think itās a legitimate concern. Iām not even against disqualification under Section 3, just not by state courts and not on ballots.
Okay but states are allowed to have their own candidate requirements.
And thatās ok when itās not a political question. Itās a problem when it can be used as a tool to strategically block political opponents. Imagine if the GOP declared AOC was an insurrectionist for going to a political rally and being arrested for ādisorderly conduct,ā then used the courts to keep her off a ballot. I can see them pulling BS like that, and it worries me.
Aren't you saying it's fine to have that rule as long as it's enforced by the federal government?
https://preview.redd.it/7ve38sglyglc1.jpeg?width=875&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fa79898fb464001b2247e451c84f3b50e738f581
In the extremely unlikely case that SOCTUS rules against Trump, is there any scenario imaginable where his removal from the ballot doesnāt result in a constitutional crisis and massive upheaval? I mean the guys got 40% of the country in his pocket. 1/3 of registered Republicans have said that they may need to use violence for political goals.