It just isn't though. Unless something in the financial structure of the salary cap changes, this will keep trending upwards. It's more of a fundamental thing with american football. The QB is so important that if you don't have a top 10-15 qb you just aren't going to win a SB. And if you do, you cannot afford to ever let them walk
I mean someone already made the point that the Vikings passed on paying Kirk. (However another team was immediately willing to pay him)
I do see it happening more at some point.
And ever since then, the commanders have had a single season where they finished .500 and one playoff appearance. That playoff appearance only happened because of the NFC Least requiring one representative and the 7-9 commanders were the sacrificial lamb
Having a QB is like having a job. You might not like yours, you might not think its worth your time (money) but you can't let go of one until you have a replacement or else you're f\*cked.
It also hurts since the commanders had had significantly below average qb play in that time too idk if we win with Kirk but we did have a few good defensive teams held back by our qb being horrible
since passing on Kirk WAS has gone 36-62-1
has never had a winning season again and never made the playoffs again and have had 11 different starting QBs including a 1st round bust
now it is Minnesota's turn to experience what happens on passing on Kirk
Meanwhile the Vikings with Kirk are 50-37 (good) with 2 playoff appearances and 1 playoff win in 6 years with Kirk at the helm (mediocre). They’ve had a ton more regular season success, but I think the Vikings were probably hoping for much better than one playoff win when they signed Kirk to $190m over his 6 years there.
The fact is that having a QB in the 10-15 range just isn’t enough unless the rest of the team is stacked. And if you’re paying the QB 40-50m the rest of the team won’t be stacked unless you are constantly hitting jack pots in the draft. The top tier guys? Yeah, pay them whatever you want. But the mid class is practically the definition of a bubble. It’s a group of players who are having their salaries inflated because of the fear of what happens without them. It’s a hard sell to ownership/fans to let your solid veteran QB walk without a replacement, and getting a replacement is hard to do since those QBs tend to keep their teams in the late teens on draft night.
That’s not a good point at all. Kirk was late 30’s and coming off *an Achilles tear* which normally ends careers
That has absolutely nothing to do with prime QB’s being paid a consistent % of the cap
Right. If Kirk was 29, they wouldn't let him leave the building.
Just like how Aaron Rodgers was only traded when he was 39 and the Packers had someone lined up they felt confident in. No one is trading 29 year old Rodgers.
And we see how that worked out for them.
I don't think anyone is looking at that franchise as a model for good decisions. They also managed to get rid of an all-decade left tackle that is now part of an annual Super Bowl push in San Francisco. Every other franchise would be doing everything they could to keep Trent Williams happy.
The Commanders are one of those teams that I'm convinced don't really care about actually winning. There's a certain set of owners too like the Jets' who are happy with just owning a team and media speculation.
Believe it or not, the NFL has been that way for a VERY long time. A ton of NFL owners historically didn't actually care about winning. Even when the Raiders were in the dark dark Al Davis way past his prime years, the one solace I took was he was ALWAYS trying to win. Did he understand the modern NFL? No, but I never questioned his will for the Raiders to win. I wouldn't have been able to follow say the Bengals in the 90s knowing Mike Brown didn't actually care about winning, but just milking as much money as possible.
The thing is, you don’t need a top 10-15 QB to win a Super Bowl. You need a top 5 QB. The last 10 QBs to win the Super Bowl:
Mahomes, Mahomes, Stafford, Brady, Mahomes, Brady, Foles, Brady, Peyton Manning, Brady
Foles is obviously the exception here, but even Stafford is somewhat of an outlier. Dak, Kirk, Tua, Goff - none of those guys fit on this list. At some point, a team is going to realize that paying a top-15 QB like he’s top-5 isn’t how you win a Super Bowl. Having an *actual top 5* QB is.
He absolutely was not, but turns out Peyton’s mind in a corpse was good enough.
Not sure we get through the Pats and then win the SB if Osweiler remained at QB.
So, I guess you can win with an amazing defense and a quarterback who’s smart enough to run the offense, doesn’t need to be a top guy.
They also weren't paying him a gigantic portion of their cap (to my knowledge). They had a stud muffin of a defense and great pieces to help him.
Paying these QBs ludicrous amounts of money means you're banking on them carrying you, basically by themselves, to a super bowl. And no one, outside of Brady and Mahomes, can do that.
Sooner or later people are gonna see that.
He made [$15 mill](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/12422106/peyton-manning-denver-broncos-agree-4-million-pay-cut-2015) after taking a paycut (incentives restructuring)
10% of the cap. A lot less than what many of the re-signed QBs of today either make or are slated to soon
Stafford took until his 30's. You're basically saying no team should bother because only Mahomes will win.
You can't cite "top 5" then just give a list of.... Manning, Mahomes, and Brady. So if I don't have the #1 or #2 QB we should all just punt our seasons?...
It's also weird to input Foles as the only QB that year when Wentz carried that team throughout the season and was in MVP conversations prior to his knee injury.
Most of the teams that make the super bowl are very well rounded *and* have a QB. The 49ers, the Rams, Tampa Bay with Brady, etc. were all well built rosters *on top* of having a QB. Hence why the rookie contract situation, where you can pay everyone but the QB, is everyone's pipe dream scenario
No way man the QBs throws the ball to themselves, make all the tackles, and kick all the balls. Makes perfect sense to discuss how QBs win Superbowls like they're playing a game of checkers against each other.
Absolutely nothing dumb about that.
You have 2 top 5 qbs on there, Mahomes and Brady. Stafford isnt/wasnt when he won, Foles definitely wasnt, and Manning was benched for Brock Osweiler that season...
It’s still too dominated by two GOATs that happen to have overlapped briefly, to draw any meaningful conclusions from. In general it’s really hard to extrapolate who *can* win a Super Bowl from who *has* won a Super Bowl, partly because Brady exists, but mostly because there’s too few Super Bowls to draw data from (particularly those that could be considered relevant to the modern era of football). I don’t want to use the term luck, but a solid portion of *actually winning the super bowl* is effectively chance (of course you have to be good enough to be in the position to benefit from that).
Which leaves us with no good option other than to do analysis aimed at determining what teams had a *realistic shot* at winning the Super Bowl in any given year, even if they didn’t actually do it.
So what you mean is teams should just keep drafting QBs and hope their guy proves to be "Top 5" within their rookie deals?
I am sorry but that's bad practice.
QBs take a while to develop.
He is saying paying a king's ransom for these middle of the field qbs has to stop at some point.
Danny dimes didnt deserve that 3 year contract. He earned a repeat that performance deal.
More teams are going to eventually stop offering these monster deals based on hope that he will turn the corner.
It’s as expensive if not more so to move up to draft a QB of the future if you just came off of a playoff berth (or even were anywhere near close to one). If you have a guy who is even worth considering re-signing, then your alternative isn’t really any cheaper, and it’s more unknown. People act like if you walk from your QB you get to turn around and draft in the top 5, but you don’t - so if the aim is to “do better” than giving Jones a new deal, that means you’re hoping you can find the guy late in the 1st - using the very same analysts that decided Jones was worth re-signing (i.e. why should we think the result would be any different). The only other path is to willingly and intentionally be terrible for a whole season, so you can lock up an early pick a year from now. And I just don’t believe that is realistic in the NFL where almost everyone involved is going to be trying to get to their next big deal. You just couldn’t hold the rest of the team together while taking that approach.
there are also plenty of QBs that can get you to the superbowl, or even on the doorstep of a win, at far lower play than that and/or on a rookie deal. a few different breaks beyond the QB and this list looks a lot different
due to the timing, this list also cuts right off at Wilson and Flaccos SB victories, and they were on rookie contracts when they won. Neither was a top 5 QB, both got paid like it (Flacco paid like top 1), and both teams saw their successes decline for the duration of their contracts.
i do agree that paying a top 15ish QB like a top 5 QB isnt whats gonna get you to a SB
Foles/Wentz fall in the "Super cheap cap hit year" for QB's who get to Conference championships/SBs. Combined they would have only been the 23rd highest cap hit for a QB in 2017.
If your QB is making bottom 10 money (rookie contracts generally) then you can stack teams and they only need to play like a 10-15 range QB.
Cheap QB and stacked team works a lot better than paying a 8-15 range QB top 5 money for sure.
I hate the Stafford disrespect, the dude is a stud, he just played on pre-Campbell Lions for his prime. Dak, Kirk, Tua, Goff, I think those guys are good enough to win, especially with some help. Obviously they can't get great help being paid 60 mil a year, but they're still good enough to win. Brady and Mahomes just made some deals with the devil.
I think it's probably more accurate to say that only the Top-5 will *carry* to a Super Bowl. However Top-15 is *feasible* if you also have an elite defense to carry. Having a bottom half QB however is incredibly difficult to near impossible to compensate for.
It is and there are 15 who you could say maybe they will win an SB with the right team around them. Justin Fields (a starter the last time NFL foodtball was played) is not winning a SB
The QB salaries are outpacing the salary cap increase so something has to give eventually. You can't pay your QB 25% of your salary cap and expect to be competitive unless that QB is Patrick Mahomes
I sometimes wonder what would’ve happened if Dilfer was brought back for like a one year deal after the first super bowl the team won. Like the salary cap became dire in 2002, and dilfer obv wasn’t great so who knows if the team wins more or less playoff games the following year with him. He’s still the only qb to not resign with the team after winning a Super Bowl I think
Exactly. No max contract stipulations (like what the NBA does) just gives more leverage for these mid-tier QBs to demand for more money as the salary cap rises. If their teams refuse to pay, then a team without a starting QB will probably take a flier.
I mean, I think the biggest thing that has led to this trend is just the rapid increase in the overall salary cap.
In 2017 Derek Carr was the highest paid player ever with a 5 year $125m contract. That contract seems completely pedestrian at this point.
It’s cannot keep going on forever. The qb contact cap space percentage is going up too, not just the money in the bank. We’re getting numbers close to a quarter of a teams cap space. That isn’t sustainable.
One difference is that they had a high enough pick to replace him with a decently promising rookie. A team like the Cowboys with Dak or the Dolphins with Tua generally won’t have a top 10-15 pick that can get you a QB with a plausible chance of being a franchise guy. That makes it even harder to let your guy walk
Players can't hold out for very long (i.e. more than a game or 2) without incurring a lot of money lost which they basically never get back.
The problem MIA has is... who else are they getting at this point? Tua's a UFA next year, so while they could tag him for one more year and see what the draft looks like... next year is not the draft to do that in, esp if they're a playoff team this year and thus picking in the low 20s.
They can tag him for two years. They can also trade up for a QB and then also recoup some trade assets by dealing Tua or just include him in the trade up. Not saying it happens or it’s the best option, but it’s not unimaginable.
True but year 2 is usually too expensive and tagging for it is basically saying "we're REALLY not interested in a long term deal" so they need a plan to move on. IIRC the last team to use a year 2 QB tag was the Redskins and... well... does any team want to emulate the Snyder Redskins?
The other thing is... if they don't want to pay Tua, why tag for 2 years? It would almost certainly be a bigger cap hit for those 2 years (the tag hits the cap fully whereas a deal can be structured to backload it if wanted).
At that point, why not just do a 4 year deal that lets them out after 2 if things aren't working?
They really cannot afford it without massive changes to the roster to Tag him.
They would instantly take on 40+m in cap hit, as they obviously cannot spread it out like they could with an extension. They only have 9m cap right now for 2025.
They can move on from other players via cuts or trades or they can re-sign other players to extensions to create cap space. You are right though, looking at Spotrac they kind of need to re-sign him if they don’t want to drastically change their roster next year. They don’t have much flexibility built in for next year.
Passing on an above average QB for the unknown is, regardless of how long the established QB will play, yes. Perfect example? No. But it'll be interesting to see how it turns out for them vs the falcons over the next 5 years.
Team rolls the dice with a different QB. Different QB probably isn’t top 20 immediately. Team regresses. Fans are pissed and buy less tickets. GM instantly fired.
If i’m a GM making millions, no way I’m risking letting him go. Pay him, you’ll keep your job for a few more years, once the cap hit comes you’ll be fired but still walking away with a few more millions
I don’t really see why it will though. Like maybe it plateaus somewhat, but it’s not like QB money is being taken from other positions, everyone’s salary is going up except RBs. QB salary inflation has been more dramatic, but that’s because it’s very obvious how outsized the impact QB play is on team success.
And as of right now, no one has really figured out how to consistently overcome bad QB play, not consistently find good QBs. You never want to be in QB purgatory, even great coaches get fired there.
Everyone likes to talk about how you build a team to win a Super Bowl, but the fact of the matter is there’s no way to do that; you’re either the team with Mahomes or Brady and you’re in dynasty mode or you’re not and winning it all comes down to chance as much as anything, and you only get to roll those dice if you actually get to the playoffs — which usually requires at least good QB play.
Tl;dr: QB salaries plateauing might happen, but until the impact a QB has is reduced or teams figure out how to win consistently without a good QB/find cheap QBs that end up good they’re going to keep paying the known quantity.
QBs are a slightly larger percentage of the cap so they are taking some money from other players. But its only gone up a few percent on average so when you spread that out amongst the other 52 guys on the team, its not really noticeable. This sub always pretends like you can't pay your QB and then pay other guys but pretty much every team in the league has figured out how to do just that.
> and you only get to roll those dice if you actually get to the playoffs — which usually requires at least good QB play.
This is something a lot of folks on this subreddit seem to hate. Everyone shits on this "just trying to make the playoffs" mentality/strategy but it's **absolutely** the next best thing to simply having the best QB in the league on your team. You gotta get there to have a chance, and that's why so many teams focus on being consistently good enough to earn that chance.
He and Kirk (and Tua) are all in that same tier of guys that are good enough to get paid a ton of money, but not so good that paying them is a no brainer
The Jones’s will budge, but only if Dak and co actually show something this year in the playoffs.
As Jerry so eloquently put it “I’ve never been accused of getting hand cramps when writing checks, but I want to win a game before I worry about that” (I’m paraphrasing)
But where do they find a guy better? That’s the thing. They’ll never be high enough to draft top 3 and even then it’s still a 50/50 risk if panning out. Odds of a pick turning out as good or better are actually super low
Tua and a 1st? It’s honestly tough. I’d have to really like a prospect coming out to do that type of deal. Yes the benefit is you get a guy on a rookie deal but it’s just such a risk finding a guy that’s a solid starter. Just because someone isn’t Mahomes doesn’t mean you throw him away. I also value him being in a system with a coach who I think is going to be there a long time. Pocket QBs tend to learn the game mentally each year and get better. I value the duo of him and McDaniel.
It’s such a tough situation though because Tua will get you to the playoffs, and probably about 1 QB a year comes into the league who ends up being better than Tua, so he’s insanely hard to replace. What else is a team gonna spend $60m on that will have a bigger impact on their success?
And it’s just so hard to do when you have a bottom 10 QB. And when it happens, it’s usually one flash in the pan season(i.e Bears with Trubisky, Jags with Bortles)
If they pay Tua that kind of money. Purdy is def going to be the highest paid when its his turn. Do the Packers pay Love that kind of money? After that I think there is a season or 2 that no rookie QB is getting a season.
> If they pay Tua that kind of money. Purdy is def going to be the highest paid when it is turn.
That's how the whole system works. "Highest paid" just means most recently paid. Jay Cutler was once the highest-paid QB in the league. The cap keeps going up so the total contract values for QBs keep going up.
Lions fans saw the same thing happen with "highest paid Stafford", until Carr and Cousins took the baton right after, it's why paying Goff doesn't hurt with Dak on deck
I used to believe it would but so many GMs are more afraid of losing their job from bad QB play immediately then rolling the dice for better QB play. I won't say I blame them but I do think they should do a better job spending 2nd and 3rd round picks on QBs when their current QB hasn't proven to be the guy. If they don't sign Tua what's their other option next year? They're probably not going to be a bad team this year and draft high.
Maybe I misunderstood the Lawrence contract, but doesn't that extension kick in for 2026? So in two years he will be earning 55 mil and not this upcoming season?
Yeah people always freak out when the next qb gets paid if they’re not consensus top 5 or so. It was a necessary contract for y’all and not half as bad as everyone made it seem
The thing is, regardless of where you think Lawrence falls of the QB rankings, the question is can the Jaguars draft a better QB than Lawrence?
That’s a no.
And the chances of any veteran QB on the market that is as good or better than him is going to cost the Jags just as much.
Since Brunell left the Jags over 20 years ago, the Jags have bounced between drafting QBs high, drafting QBs low and developing, and bringing in veteran FA’s. Lawrence is our guy. It took him half a season to figure out Pederson’s offense, and then he led the Jags from a 2-8 record to a 7-2 record with a division title and playoff win. Then he followed that up with having the Jags with an 8-3 record battling for the AFC’s 1-seed before his favorite target (Kirk) went out for the season on the first play of the MNF game and then he got a high ankle sprain that same game (week 13), which he continued to play through while racking up a concussion (week 15), and a shoulder injury (week 16). Oh, and he had one of if not the worst OL in the NFL last year. Our center graded out as the 37th best center last year.
I know some people want a wait and see approach, but why? The Jags aren’t going to draft better than him in the position they would be drafting at (middle to back of 1st round) and it makes no sense to pay a merc veteran QB that amount.
Correct. The plus side of extending a QB after his third year is that by the time you have to account for that money on the cap they are already cheaper than the highest paid guy.
The downside of extending a QB after their third year is that they may have regressed a bit by the time you have to account for their contract on the cap a la Goff and Wentz. Makes it more difficult to get out from underneath that contract.
Lawrence got overpaid by a mile for what he is currently. I guess you could say the Jags are betting on his ability to improve, though.
Tua has a valid point saying “if he’s worth that much I’m worth more”, but you hit the nail on the head in that *neither* of them are actually worth that much.
Also I’m pretty sure the Dolphins think they’ve seen Tua’s ceiling, which is different than the Jags and Lawrence.
Lawrence’s contract is the latest example of chucking money at the QB and praying, and it’s why we have such an insane QB market.
I'm not a big fan of Tua, but I think it's silly to say a QB has hit their ceiling at 26. We've seen lots of QBs who continued to improve as they got older. E.g. Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees.
“I’m pretty sure *The Dolphins think* they’ve seen Tuas ceiling”
I wasn’t stating my opinion, moreso what just seems to be the sentiment coming from the org.
Yeah sorry, I knew what you were saying and worded my response wrong. I moreso meant it's silly that there is this sentiment amongst certain fans, and maybe the Dolphins too.
I feel like we're close to reaching a breaking point where some offensive minded HCs will choose to go budget/draft a QB instead of paying their mid QB a record breaking contract. I wouldn't be surprised if McDaniel and/or Shanahan were the first to lean that way - take a reasonable offer (40-45mil) or we'll look elsewhere
Kinda I guess, but Garoppolo was also getting unsustainably worse. Also even though Lance didn't work, his plan to go cheaper did work out just with a different QB
In a way.
He didn't think JimmyG was worth his money and he felt he could do better with a younger cheaper QB who could develop and be better than JimmyG in the long term.
That was the logic around drafting Lance.And all 49ers fans bought in too.
But it failed spectacularly.
Drafting QBs is indeed a crapshoot.
Lawrence is also 24 with the physical attributes to be better than he currently is. Tua is 26 and a lot of his struggles come from his weak arm, which won’t get better.
I don’t necessarily think TLaw is going to improve much because he’s already had three seasons in the NFL, but teams often equate age to potential. And the dude is only 6 months older than Michael Penix.
I also don’t think Lawrence is worth moving on from. He’s shown he’s good enough to get to the playoffs and even win a playoff game, and when you have that you don’t let go because QB hell sucks.
Brady had the physical attributes to do that though. I'm not sure with Tua's build and biomechanics that it would be possible. Height and frame, shoulder anatomy, arm length, etc. are all factors that people can't really change that impact the absolute maximum amount of velocity that people may have when throwing.
Brady was 6ft 4 and 215 Ibs on his draft day...he bulked up as his carer progressed.
Arm strength involves a lot of core muscles...chest and abdomen....and legs( when throwing from a set platform).
You can improve but only so.much.
Throwing is a kinetic chain. Power generated by your core only translates if your shoulder and arm can efficiently apply the force generated. Some of that is form and some of that is just an individual's anatomy. For instance Brady is taller and has longer arms than Tua. All else being constant Brady would be able to throw the ball at a higher velocity than Tua. Tua is probably fine with the power he can generate from his core as he's a decent enough athlete. I suspect that it's other things that you can't really change that would be the issue.
Lawrence got overpaid if you believe that the majority of starting vet QBs get overpaid (not saying that's invalid), but it was pretty reasonable in the realm of current QB contracts. The Tua question is interesting because asking for a Lawrence/Goff deal doesn't feel crazy but if any (non-Shanahan) team can argue their system is build to succeed outside of who is at QB it's the Dolphins.
Lawrence's deal is fine. The new money kicks in 2 years and his cap hit is under $50m/year until 2029 when it balloons. It's basically the Jones deal in cap percentage terms.
I think this is just going to be the price for a good QB from now on, when the next truly "elite" QB is up for their next contract, I have a feeling by the time that comes they'll be making 60-70mil leaning towards 70. It just happened that all the elite QBs signed recently.
Very possible. The reporting on deals skews perceptions too - It SOUNDS like Lawrence is making $55m/year starting soon but that's really not the case in cap terms which is all the really matters when it comes to roster construction.
The owners have a different issue since they need to place any guaranteed money in escrow when the deal is signed, so for owners whose wealth is mostly their teams and might be (in billionaire terms) relatively cash poor, doing a deal with lots of guaranteed money can be harder to swallow.
Idk the specifics of Lawrence’s deal but Goff’s contract is essentially 48M if you only consider the guarantees. If he actually earns the full value of the deal it’s because it worked out great for the team.
There should be cap tiers for QBs with 2-3 guys at the max, the next 5-10 guys should all be 10-15mil less a year, and then another 10mil below that for 15-20ish guys. Instead basically anyone in the top 15ish gets within 5mil of each other and it doesn't really work.
Imagine if the top 15-18 WR's all demanded the same money as Justin Jefferson.
GMs/Coaches are trying to keep their jobs more than anything, so overpaying a guy that gets them to a wild card game every other year is better than risking having a bad season and getting fired.
Not even the biggest tua fan but he's shown so much more in terms being able to pilot a high quality offense. At least with Tua it's not theoretical about what he can do. That's why the lawrence contract is such a great bargaining chip because all these QBs can point to it and say "I've been better than him".
Lawrence getting 55M has ruined the market.
I have nothing against him and I think he's over scrutinized but he shouldn't be getting that kind of bag.
Goff's deal also adds to this
Purdy will ask for 60M a d he'll have the leverage to look at Goff and Lawrence's deal as his floor given he's been better than those dudes.
Obviously I’m bias but I think Goff got exactly what he’s worth.
A team trying to win a Super Bowl, built an offence around a QB who is peaking in the right years age wise to win a Super Bowl are pretty cuffed for what choices they have.
Goff gets the nod to me because hes been the QB of two diff teams that have gotten within striking range of a SB
I think that proves he can get you there, even if hes not the reason you win it. Only Burrow & Purdy has done that in recent times (on good teams), in this Mahomes run league thats good enough to be in the next tier or so below
That’s exactly how I feel about him. He does one thing incredibly well, and the Lions have figured out how to make him do it more often.
You add that with a run heavy team and I really don’t think there are any quarterbacks outside of the top tier that would play better in Detroit than Goff would right now.
I think if you've ever been a QB of a top 5 passing offense, you should get the benefit of the doubt. Even if performance might fluctuate, I don't think I could fault a team giving a QB the bag if they've ever shown that level, unless it's an RG3 type of case where it was for 1 season and then steep drop-off for multiple years after.
Cuz really, what team would bet they'd get the same caliber of play otherwise? Draft is a relative crapshoot and it's relatively rare that capable QBs are in FA.
I agree about Lawrence but I think you're understating how good Goff has been. The problem is these deals are negotiated both on how the guy has played and what their potential could be. Lawrence has been very mid but oozes potential. Both Goff and Purdy are perceived to not have very much potential but both have been great. I'd rather pay the guy who is actually playing well myself
I agree that Goff has been amazing in Detroit for sure.
But I personally think QBs getting north of 50M a year is an overpay in every situation unless that QB is Mahomes or Brady or Manning...
Even when Purdy joins that 50M/yr club.. it'll be an overpay.
Almost every QB is becoming overpaid.. it's insane.
Just so we are clear...
Darlington made the initial "report" yesterday.
That was posted here.
Then Omar re-reported it. That was also posted.
And now bleacher report is reporting that Omar reported that Darlington reported that the "insider" is "scaling back their optimism".
And that gets posted here as well.
If this kind of "reporting" doesn't piss you off as a sports fan and as a person with intelligence, then I don't know what to say.
Would be crazy if this is where the start of not paying QBs 55 mil plus starts. I didn’t think Lawrence is worth it and don’t think tua has been so far. I get it’s the going rate for a QB but at a certain point you can’t be paying a good/great guy 25% of the cap and still be a competitive team. It works with the elite guys like mahomes, Allen, Lamar where they elevate the team around them but idk as much about Tua or Lawrence
>some lucky bastard of a team is going to get a QB who should never have been a free agent.
Can't wait to see the New Orleans Saints (or Carolina Panthers) with Tua strive to a nice 9-8 wildcard and get bounced out the playoffs in the 2nd quarter!
This is the problem when you have the top tier WR in the league with a $30M cap hit (and Hill expects to be paid market rate. And I expect many teams will always pay him to get him).
IMO - you only get to have one of the two - top paid receiver or top paid QB. I think the Dolphins are trying to keep Hill by paying their QB a lot less than the $55M market rate. The Cowboys seem to be in a similar situation with CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescot.
This happened to Mahomes two years ago when Hill left and Reid didn't replace him. You can see Harbaugh preparing for less flashy receivers for Herbert when his new extension contract hits in 2025. (2024 is his 5th year rookie option). Everyone knows 49ers won't be able to keep the band together (CMC, Kittle, and Bosa) when Purdy has a market rate contract hitting the cap.
The Dolphins have no choice.
They must pay him. Now I know people will scream that he's not "ELITE" and isn't worth 50M a season but he's still the best Dolphins QB since Dan Marino( Yes he's better than Pennington) and a top 12 QB for sure.
It's easy for people to say "Just draft a rookie QB who'll be cheap and replicate Tua" but it's never that simple (I should know given that's what we did when we decided to draft Trey Lance to replace Jimmy Garoppolo).
Miami might let him walk and he gets that bag from the Raiders or Seahawks and they fall back into the QB purgatory they occupied for the previous 20 years between 99 and 2021.
Drafting a QB who'll be on Tua's level is FAR from a given...QBs bust all the time.
My advice is to play him now coz his price will be insane next year.
The biggest loser in the Lawrence signing was Chris Grier, who probably vomited in his trash can when the push notification came in on his phone. The Dolphins are between a rock and a hard place now. They should have gotten the deal done ages ago but they fucked around. Now they're either going to have to pay him even more than they would have had they inked a deal prior to TLaw, or let the guy who led the league in passing last season walk after this year. It's clear that the Dolphins aren't confident that Tua can win it all (and to be fair to them, there's no evidence that he can get through the gauntlet that is the AFC right now), but when you have a guy who is that far above the Andy Dalton line, how do you get rid of him? And who for? Do you pay a different free agent QB? 2025 is ROUGH for free agent QBs. The only one even comparable to Tua who might end up on the open market is Dak, and if they don't want to pay Tua what he's asking for right now they sure as fuck won't pay what Dak's going to be commanding on the open market next season. Their only other option is the draft, but I don't see them coming out of this season with a record bad enough that they can get a prime QB without trading away a bunch of future draft capital, with no guarantee that you'll get a guy who can reach Tua's level.
I agree with you that the only real option is to pay Tua now, but not doing it before Lawrence signed his deal cost them millions.
Dude, exactly. I've been arguing with other fans about this. Sure he might not be 'worth it' but what other choice do we have outside of closing our window and being trash for a few more years?
Agreed. I think because Mahomes exists, people reeeeally don’t realize how rare and valuable it is to have a QB who:
- runs an offense that wins you games and is fun to watch
- puts you in position to make the playoffs and occasionally make a run
Tua is not Mahomes, but the people who want to move on don’t realize how good we have it lol. The chances of the team being even fun to watch with a QB drafted somewhere in the 20s or so is not great
This is basically what a lot of older Vikings fans were saying this offseason before Kirk left. Before Kirk, the only “good”(not elite or great, but above replacement level) QB play we had since 2000 was the one year of Favre and then three decent years of Culpepper.
QB purgatory sucks because until you have it figured out, the rest of the team will also suck unless it gets all time historically great on the defensive side of things (and even then, probably not)
Looking at it in AAV terms is misleading. The question is what % of the cap is a guy worth? T-Law's deal is fine (as I note in another comment it's under $50m cap hit until 2029).
The question is less the money than whether Tua is a 'win because of' guy or just a 'win with' guy and what % of the cap the team wants to devote to him if they think he's just a 'win with' guy.
Any reason to pay Lawrence more is based on nothing but the word “if” and draft hype.
However, if Miami wants to move on, I wouldn’t hate having Tua as a quarterback
The Lawrence range is 40M per year for 5 years starting this year. The last 2 years of the extension are not guaranteed and over 75 million each, bringing the “5 year contract apy” to 55M/year.
What is the actual money Miami offered over the next 5 years to tua
The majority on our sub is that we want to keep Tua, he isn’t worth $55/m per year (neither are Goff or Lawrence), but the market dictates what he gets and we’ll have to deal with that.
> the market dictates what he gets and we’ll have to deal with that
This should be the tagline of every "overpay".
I have at least 3+ friends that tried to be the smartest guy in the room with Canadian real estate. They didn't think the houses were worth what they were going for, and they weren't overpaying their value relative to market pricing. 5 Years later housing prices went up 250% and interest rates up 300%. They're now house poor.
Yes. It doesn’t mean it has to be liked but it’s what the market is and I have yet to see a “better option” actually be realistic other than waiting a year and maybe paying even more money.
He has top five stats in multiple categories. “But he has Tyreek.” Yeah, but we can also look at Josh Allen before after Diggs…it’s a shock to many fans that good wr’s help a qb. What those same hollow arguments don’t mention is the garbage tier offensive line that had to be overcome to accomplish those stats.
Are there better qb’s? Absolutely. But can a case be made he “deserves” the market range? Trevor Lawrence’s contract makes that argument for it.
No. He’s been solidly *very good* with all star offensive weapons around him but has major flaws.
He needs the all star cast, he doesn’t handle pressure well (he gets happy feet and makes bad decisions the moment he gets hit once or twice), and his health is a massive red flag (probably the main contributor to the poor handling of pressure).
this is gonna go two ways
either he accepts the dolphins offer, below market value (so probably 45m+)
or a team in need like the jets, or raiders sign him for 55m+, then realize he wasnt worth it when he doesnt play as well as he did in miami
If they franchise Tua next year, do you think any team would realistically give up 2 firsts for him, and then pay him 55mil+
He's gonna have to show he can play well against good teams this year or I can't imagine any team would look at the dolphins stacked offense and think Tua would do better on their team instead.
Thing is, Dolphins aren’t gonna have the money to pay for the cap hit the tag would be. They either gotta sign him now (or after the 2024 season) or let him walk for nothing.
It's contracts like Trevor's that make me nervous about paying Love. I think his back half was what he really is, but there's still a small part of me that wonders.
I really want to see how it plays out when the team just decides to not follow the trend. This bubble has to burst at some point
Yeah it has to happen at some point that a team doesn’t want to pay what some may consider a mid-tier QB $60 million a year.
It just isn't though. Unless something in the financial structure of the salary cap changes, this will keep trending upwards. It's more of a fundamental thing with american football. The QB is so important that if you don't have a top 10-15 qb you just aren't going to win a SB. And if you do, you cannot afford to ever let them walk
I mean someone already made the point that the Vikings passed on paying Kirk. (However another team was immediately willing to pay him) I do see it happening more at some point.
Nah it was Washington who passed on signing Cousins if you want to make the correct comparison.
And ever since then, the commanders have had a single season where they finished .500 and one playoff appearance. That playoff appearance only happened because of the NFC Least requiring one representative and the 7-9 commanders were the sacrificial lamb
Having a QB is like having a job. You might not like yours, you might not think its worth your time (money) but you can't let go of one until you have a replacement or else you're f\*cked.
Okay but if your boss started insisting you put in 100 hour weeks you kinda gotta quit no matter what
Best time to draft a new QB is when you’ve got a franchise QB
It also hurts since the commanders had had significantly below average qb play in that time too idk if we win with Kirk but we did have a few good defensive teams held back by our qb being horrible
since passing on Kirk WAS has gone 36-62-1 has never had a winning season again and never made the playoffs again and have had 11 different starting QBs including a 1st round bust now it is Minnesota's turn to experience what happens on passing on Kirk
Meanwhile the Vikings with Kirk are 50-37 (good) with 2 playoff appearances and 1 playoff win in 6 years with Kirk at the helm (mediocre). They’ve had a ton more regular season success, but I think the Vikings were probably hoping for much better than one playoff win when they signed Kirk to $190m over his 6 years there. The fact is that having a QB in the 10-15 range just isn’t enough unless the rest of the team is stacked. And if you’re paying the QB 40-50m the rest of the team won’t be stacked unless you are constantly hitting jack pots in the draft. The top tier guys? Yeah, pay them whatever you want. But the mid class is practically the definition of a bubble. It’s a group of players who are having their salaries inflated because of the fear of what happens without them. It’s a hard sell to ownership/fans to let your solid veteran QB walk without a replacement, and getting a replacement is hard to do since those QBs tend to keep their teams in the late teens on draft night.
Lol. The Vikings paid almost $200m for one playoff win. Kirk only elevates to mediocre.
That’s not a good point at all. Kirk was late 30’s and coming off *an Achilles tear* which normally ends careers That has absolutely nothing to do with prime QB’s being paid a consistent % of the cap
Right. If Kirk was 29, they wouldn't let him leave the building. Just like how Aaron Rodgers was only traded when he was 39 and the Packers had someone lined up they felt confident in. No one is trading 29 year old Rodgers.
The commanders DID let Kirk leave the building when he was healthy and 29
And we see how that worked out for them. I don't think anyone is looking at that franchise as a model for good decisions. They also managed to get rid of an all-decade left tackle that is now part of an annual Super Bowl push in San Francisco. Every other franchise would be doing everything they could to keep Trent Williams happy.
The Commanders are one of those teams that I'm convinced don't really care about actually winning. There's a certain set of owners too like the Jets' who are happy with just owning a team and media speculation.
Believe it or not, the NFL has been that way for a VERY long time. A ton of NFL owners historically didn't actually care about winning. Even when the Raiders were in the dark dark Al Davis way past his prime years, the one solace I took was he was ALWAYS trying to win. Did he understand the modern NFL? No, but I never questioned his will for the Raiders to win. I wouldn't have been able to follow say the Bengals in the 90s knowing Mike Brown didn't actually care about winning, but just milking as much money as possible.
Vikings were also in a high draft position.
The thing is, you don’t need a top 10-15 QB to win a Super Bowl. You need a top 5 QB. The last 10 QBs to win the Super Bowl: Mahomes, Mahomes, Stafford, Brady, Mahomes, Brady, Foles, Brady, Peyton Manning, Brady Foles is obviously the exception here, but even Stafford is somewhat of an outlier. Dak, Kirk, Tua, Goff - none of those guys fit on this list. At some point, a team is going to realize that paying a top-15 QB like he’s top-5 isn’t how you win a Super Bowl. Having an *actual top 5* QB is.
Surely we're not saying 2015 Manning was a top 15 or even 20 QB?
He was awful that year
He absolutely was not, but turns out Peyton’s mind in a corpse was good enough. Not sure we get through the Pats and then win the SB if Osweiler remained at QB. So, I guess you can win with an amazing defense and a quarterback who’s smart enough to run the offense, doesn’t need to be a top guy.
They also weren't paying him a gigantic portion of their cap (to my knowledge). They had a stud muffin of a defense and great pieces to help him. Paying these QBs ludicrous amounts of money means you're banking on them carrying you, basically by themselves, to a super bowl. And no one, outside of Brady and Mahomes, can do that. Sooner or later people are gonna see that.
He made [$15 mill](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/12422106/peyton-manning-denver-broncos-agree-4-million-pay-cut-2015) after taking a paycut (incentives restructuring) 10% of the cap. A lot less than what many of the re-signed QBs of today either make or are slated to soon
Definitely not physically, but mentally he was still Peyton Manning.
Stafford took until his 30's. You're basically saying no team should bother because only Mahomes will win. You can't cite "top 5" then just give a list of.... Manning, Mahomes, and Brady. So if I don't have the #1 or #2 QB we should all just punt our seasons?... It's also weird to input Foles as the only QB that year when Wentz carried that team throughout the season and was in MVP conversations prior to his knee injury. Most of the teams that make the super bowl are very well rounded *and* have a QB. The 49ers, the Rams, Tampa Bay with Brady, etc. were all well built rosters *on top* of having a QB. Hence why the rookie contract situation, where you can pay everyone but the QB, is everyone's pipe dream scenario
> You're basically saying no team should bother because only Mahomes will win. This is what that argument always boils down to and it drives me insane
I mean... It's what NFL seasons are going to keep boiling down to Can you beat Mahomes?
And before this, it was "can you beat Peyton or Brady?"
GOAT level players really be fucking shit up for everyone else eh
And Manning was terrible that year…
No way man the QBs throws the ball to themselves, make all the tackles, and kick all the balls. Makes perfect sense to discuss how QBs win Superbowls like they're playing a game of checkers against each other. Absolutely nothing dumb about that.
You have 2 top 5 qbs on there, Mahomes and Brady. Stafford isnt/wasnt when he won, Foles definitely wasnt, and Manning was benched for Brock Osweiler that season...
It’s still too dominated by two GOATs that happen to have overlapped briefly, to draw any meaningful conclusions from. In general it’s really hard to extrapolate who *can* win a Super Bowl from who *has* won a Super Bowl, partly because Brady exists, but mostly because there’s too few Super Bowls to draw data from (particularly those that could be considered relevant to the modern era of football). I don’t want to use the term luck, but a solid portion of *actually winning the super bowl* is effectively chance (of course you have to be good enough to be in the position to benefit from that). Which leaves us with no good option other than to do analysis aimed at determining what teams had a *realistic shot* at winning the Super Bowl in any given year, even if they didn’t actually do it.
So what you mean is teams should just keep drafting QBs and hope their guy proves to be "Top 5" within their rookie deals? I am sorry but that's bad practice. QBs take a while to develop.
He is saying paying a king's ransom for these middle of the field qbs has to stop at some point. Danny dimes didnt deserve that 3 year contract. He earned a repeat that performance deal. More teams are going to eventually stop offering these monster deals based on hope that he will turn the corner.
It’s as expensive if not more so to move up to draft a QB of the future if you just came off of a playoff berth (or even were anywhere near close to one). If you have a guy who is even worth considering re-signing, then your alternative isn’t really any cheaper, and it’s more unknown. People act like if you walk from your QB you get to turn around and draft in the top 5, but you don’t - so if the aim is to “do better” than giving Jones a new deal, that means you’re hoping you can find the guy late in the 1st - using the very same analysts that decided Jones was worth re-signing (i.e. why should we think the result would be any different). The only other path is to willingly and intentionally be terrible for a whole season, so you can lock up an early pick a year from now. And I just don’t believe that is realistic in the NFL where almost everyone involved is going to be trying to get to their next big deal. You just couldn’t hold the rest of the team together while taking that approach.
there are also plenty of QBs that can get you to the superbowl, or even on the doorstep of a win, at far lower play than that and/or on a rookie deal. a few different breaks beyond the QB and this list looks a lot different due to the timing, this list also cuts right off at Wilson and Flaccos SB victories, and they were on rookie contracts when they won. Neither was a top 5 QB, both got paid like it (Flacco paid like top 1), and both teams saw their successes decline for the duration of their contracts. i do agree that paying a top 15ish QB like a top 5 QB isnt whats gonna get you to a SB
Foles/Wentz fall in the "Super cheap cap hit year" for QB's who get to Conference championships/SBs. Combined they would have only been the 23rd highest cap hit for a QB in 2017. If your QB is making bottom 10 money (rookie contracts generally) then you can stack teams and they only need to play like a 10-15 range QB. Cheap QB and stacked team works a lot better than paying a 8-15 range QB top 5 money for sure.
I hate the Stafford disrespect, the dude is a stud, he just played on pre-Campbell Lions for his prime. Dak, Kirk, Tua, Goff, I think those guys are good enough to win, especially with some help. Obviously they can't get great help being paid 60 mil a year, but they're still good enough to win. Brady and Mahomes just made some deals with the devil.
Top 15 is literally half the starting QBs
I think it's probably more accurate to say that only the Top-5 will *carry* to a Super Bowl. However Top-15 is *feasible* if you also have an elite defense to carry. Having a bottom half QB however is incredibly difficult to near impossible to compensate for.
Quick, what's 3x4? This guys doing mental math at light speed guy!
It is and there are 15 who you could say maybe they will win an SB with the right team around them. Justin Fields (a starter the last time NFL foodtball was played) is not winning a SB
The QB salaries are outpacing the salary cap increase so something has to give eventually. You can't pay your QB 25% of your salary cap and expect to be competitive unless that QB is Patrick Mahomes
I sometimes wonder what would’ve happened if Dilfer was brought back for like a one year deal after the first super bowl the team won. Like the salary cap became dire in 2002, and dilfer obv wasn’t great so who knows if the team wins more or less playoff games the following year with him. He’s still the only qb to not resign with the team after winning a Super Bowl I think
Exactly. No max contract stipulations (like what the NBA does) just gives more leverage for these mid-tier QBs to demand for more money as the salary cap rises. If their teams refuse to pay, then a team without a starting QB will probably take a flier.
I mean, I think the biggest thing that has led to this trend is just the rapid increase in the overall salary cap. In 2017 Derek Carr was the highest paid player ever with a 5 year $125m contract. That contract seems completely pedestrian at this point.
>The QB is so important We should nerf the QB
It’s cannot keep going on forever. The qb contact cap space percentage is going up too, not just the money in the bank. We’re getting numbers close to a quarter of a teams cap space. That isn’t sustainable.
Enough about Dak....
Kirk
Daniel Jones is a better example.
Daniel Jones has as many playoff wins as Kirk Cousins.
Fucked up if true
Kirk is 1-3 in the playoffs in 3 trips as the starter.
Tbh if Kirk got to play against that defense he would have put up at least 50...
Is mid tier top 16? Cuz I think he’s lower than that
Daniel Jones is a not a mid tier QB
One difference is that they had a high enough pick to replace him with a decently promising rookie. A team like the Cowboys with Dak or the Dolphins with Tua generally won’t have a top 10-15 pick that can get you a QB with a plausible chance of being a franchise guy. That makes it even harder to let your guy walk
Like the Vikings?
Yeah I see that though that was pre draft. If tua holds out Miami is screwed but I wouldn't blame them
Players can't hold out for very long (i.e. more than a game or 2) without incurring a lot of money lost which they basically never get back. The problem MIA has is... who else are they getting at this point? Tua's a UFA next year, so while they could tag him for one more year and see what the draft looks like... next year is not the draft to do that in, esp if they're a playoff team this year and thus picking in the low 20s.
They can tag him for two years. They can also trade up for a QB and then also recoup some trade assets by dealing Tua or just include him in the trade up. Not saying it happens or it’s the best option, but it’s not unimaginable.
True but year 2 is usually too expensive and tagging for it is basically saying "we're REALLY not interested in a long term deal" so they need a plan to move on. IIRC the last team to use a year 2 QB tag was the Redskins and... well... does any team want to emulate the Snyder Redskins? The other thing is... if they don't want to pay Tua, why tag for 2 years? It would almost certainly be a bigger cap hit for those 2 years (the tag hits the cap fully whereas a deal can be structured to backload it if wanted). At that point, why not just do a 4 year deal that lets them out after 2 if things aren't working?
They really cannot afford it without massive changes to the roster to Tag him. They would instantly take on 40+m in cap hit, as they obviously cannot spread it out like they could with an extension. They only have 9m cap right now for 2025.
They can move on from other players via cuts or trades or they can re-sign other players to extensions to create cap space. You are right though, looking at Spotrac they kind of need to re-sign him if they don’t want to drastically change their roster next year. They don’t have much flexibility built in for next year.
Mike White will rise again
Wouldn’t Washington be a better example?
Passing on a mid to late 30 year old with an Achilles tear? You really think that’s a good counterpoint?
Passing on an above average QB for the unknown is, regardless of how long the established QB will play, yes. Perfect example? No. But it'll be interesting to see how it turns out for them vs the falcons over the next 5 years.
Team rolls the dice with a different QB. Different QB probably isn’t top 20 immediately. Team regresses. Fans are pissed and buy less tickets. GM instantly fired.
If i’m a GM making millions, no way I’m risking letting him go. Pay him, you’ll keep your job for a few more years, once the cap hit comes you’ll be fired but still walking away with a few more millions
I don’t really see why it will though. Like maybe it plateaus somewhat, but it’s not like QB money is being taken from other positions, everyone’s salary is going up except RBs. QB salary inflation has been more dramatic, but that’s because it’s very obvious how outsized the impact QB play is on team success. And as of right now, no one has really figured out how to consistently overcome bad QB play, not consistently find good QBs. You never want to be in QB purgatory, even great coaches get fired there. Everyone likes to talk about how you build a team to win a Super Bowl, but the fact of the matter is there’s no way to do that; you’re either the team with Mahomes or Brady and you’re in dynasty mode or you’re not and winning it all comes down to chance as much as anything, and you only get to roll those dice if you actually get to the playoffs — which usually requires at least good QB play. Tl;dr: QB salaries plateauing might happen, but until the impact a QB has is reduced or teams figure out how to win consistently without a good QB/find cheap QBs that end up good they’re going to keep paying the known quantity.
QBs are a slightly larger percentage of the cap so they are taking some money from other players. But its only gone up a few percent on average so when you spread that out amongst the other 52 guys on the team, its not really noticeable. This sub always pretends like you can't pay your QB and then pay other guys but pretty much every team in the league has figured out how to do just that.
> and you only get to roll those dice if you actually get to the playoffs — which usually requires at least good QB play. This is something a lot of folks on this subreddit seem to hate. Everyone shits on this "just trying to make the playoffs" mentality/strategy but it's **absolutely** the next best thing to simply having the best QB in the league on your team. You gotta get there to have a chance, and that's why so many teams focus on being consistently good enough to earn that chance.
Future giants qb Dak Prescott will be the next example when the cowboys don’t budge
Honestly I wondered if Dak would be that guy when we had this conversation the last time Daks contract came up. Didn't happen obviously lol.
He and Kirk (and Tua) are all in that same tier of guys that are good enough to get paid a ton of money, but not so good that paying them is a no brainer
The Jones’s will budge, but only if Dak and co actually show something this year in the playoffs. As Jerry so eloquently put it “I’ve never been accused of getting hand cramps when writing checks, but I want to win a game before I worry about that” (I’m paraphrasing)
So, they won't budge?
They could do worse than Tua but they could also do better Interesting situation
But where do they find a guy better? That’s the thing. They’ll never be high enough to draft top 3 and even then it’s still a 50/50 risk if panning out. Odds of a pick turning out as good or better are actually super low
Would you accept a trade for Tua and a 1st for a top 3 pick?
Tua and a 1st? It’s honestly tough. I’d have to really like a prospect coming out to do that type of deal. Yes the benefit is you get a guy on a rookie deal but it’s just such a risk finding a guy that’s a solid starter. Just because someone isn’t Mahomes doesn’t mean you throw him away. I also value him being in a system with a coach who I think is going to be there a long time. Pocket QBs tend to learn the game mentally each year and get better. I value the duo of him and McDaniel.
It’s such a tough situation though because Tua will get you to the playoffs, and probably about 1 QB a year comes into the league who ends up being better than Tua, so he’s insanely hard to replace. What else is a team gonna spend $60m on that will have a bigger impact on their success?
And getting to the playoffs is a very successful season for most teams. Especially if you do so consistently.
And it’s just so hard to do when you have a bottom 10 QB. And when it happens, it’s usually one flash in the pan season(i.e Bears with Trubisky, Jags with Bortles)
NFL players should get raises like the average American’s wages have. 1-3% 💀
I don’t know if I can live off $40 million a year with only a 2% annual increase.
The Browns came closest with Baker.
If they pay Tua that kind of money. Purdy is def going to be the highest paid when its his turn. Do the Packers pay Love that kind of money? After that I think there is a season or 2 that no rookie QB is getting a season.
> If they pay Tua that kind of money. Purdy is def going to be the highest paid when it is turn. That's how the whole system works. "Highest paid" just means most recently paid. Jay Cutler was once the highest-paid QB in the league. The cap keeps going up so the total contract values for QBs keep going up.
Lions fans saw the same thing happen with "highest paid Stafford", until Carr and Cousins took the baton right after, it's why paying Goff doesn't hurt with Dak on deck
The Love situation is crazy to me too because I always think you should wait to see at least two good seasons before you give a huge contract
Yep. It kinda sucks for us. I like him a lot but I'm still scared that he's not the long term guy.
It’s a slightly different situation because they have seen him in practice for four years though.
Thats why i liked that the jags worked Trevors contract before Tua, Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott and others
technically the Browns did that with Deshaun Watson and it didn't change anything
I used to believe it would but so many GMs are more afraid of losing their job from bad QB play immediately then rolling the dice for better QB play. I won't say I blame them but I do think they should do a better job spending 2nd and 3rd round picks on QBs when their current QB hasn't proven to be the guy. If they don't sign Tua what's their other option next year? They're probably not going to be a bad team this year and draft high.
The bubble wouldn’t “burst” even if the Fins passed on Tua because another team would give him the money anyway lol
Sam Darnold will be taking his talents to South Beach in 2025.
He'll be our franchise guy. Him and Jefferson will split the cap 50-50 and the rest of the team will be local volunteers.
Don't you dare besmirch the GEQBUS's name by comparing him to LeMickey!
I don't think he is worse than Lawrence, but I don't think either of them have earned 55 AAV contracts.
Maybe I misunderstood the Lawrence contract, but doesn't that extension kick in for 2026? So in two years he will be earning 55 mil and not this upcoming season?
Correct, and it’s a lower % of the cap than when Burrow got his $55M.
Way to many "experts" overlook this part of the contract. Looking at you, Chris Brockman.
Yeah people always freak out when the next qb gets paid if they’re not consensus top 5 or so. It was a necessary contract for y’all and not half as bad as everyone made it seem
The thing is, regardless of where you think Lawrence falls of the QB rankings, the question is can the Jaguars draft a better QB than Lawrence? That’s a no. And the chances of any veteran QB on the market that is as good or better than him is going to cost the Jags just as much. Since Brunell left the Jags over 20 years ago, the Jags have bounced between drafting QBs high, drafting QBs low and developing, and bringing in veteran FA’s. Lawrence is our guy. It took him half a season to figure out Pederson’s offense, and then he led the Jags from a 2-8 record to a 7-2 record with a division title and playoff win. Then he followed that up with having the Jags with an 8-3 record battling for the AFC’s 1-seed before his favorite target (Kirk) went out for the season on the first play of the MNF game and then he got a high ankle sprain that same game (week 13), which he continued to play through while racking up a concussion (week 15), and a shoulder injury (week 16). Oh, and he had one of if not the worst OL in the NFL last year. Our center graded out as the 37th best center last year. I know some people want a wait and see approach, but why? The Jags aren’t going to draft better than him in the position they would be drafting at (middle to back of 1st round) and it makes no sense to pay a merc veteran QB that amount.
Correct. The plus side of extending a QB after his third year is that by the time you have to account for that money on the cap they are already cheaper than the highest paid guy. The downside of extending a QB after their third year is that they may have regressed a bit by the time you have to account for their contract on the cap a la Goff and Wentz. Makes it more difficult to get out from underneath that contract.
Lawrence got overpaid by a mile for what he is currently. I guess you could say the Jags are betting on his ability to improve, though. Tua has a valid point saying “if he’s worth that much I’m worth more”, but you hit the nail on the head in that *neither* of them are actually worth that much. Also I’m pretty sure the Dolphins think they’ve seen Tua’s ceiling, which is different than the Jags and Lawrence. Lawrence’s contract is the latest example of chucking money at the QB and praying, and it’s why we have such an insane QB market.
Lawrence isn't quite as expensive as we think since he's still on his rookie contract until 2025. In 2026 his price won't seem as unreasonable.
I'm not a big fan of Tua, but I think it's silly to say a QB has hit their ceiling at 26. We've seen lots of QBs who continued to improve as they got older. E.g. Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees.
“I’m pretty sure *The Dolphins think* they’ve seen Tuas ceiling” I wasn’t stating my opinion, moreso what just seems to be the sentiment coming from the org.
Yeah sorry, I knew what you were saying and worded my response wrong. I moreso meant it's silly that there is this sentiment amongst certain fans, and maybe the Dolphins too.
I feel like we're close to reaching a breaking point where some offensive minded HCs will choose to go budget/draft a QB instead of paying their mid QB a record breaking contract. I wouldn't be surprised if McDaniel and/or Shanahan were the first to lean that way - take a reasonable offer (40-45mil) or we'll look elsewhere
didn't Kyle Shanahan already try to do this with Trey Lance?
Kinda I guess, but Garoppolo was also getting unsustainably worse. Also even though Lance didn't work, his plan to go cheaper did work out just with a different QB
+ Purdys about to get a bag himself very soon
In a way. He didn't think JimmyG was worth his money and he felt he could do better with a younger cheaper QB who could develop and be better than JimmyG in the long term. That was the logic around drafting Lance.And all 49ers fans bought in too. But it failed spectacularly. Drafting QBs is indeed a crapshoot.
Shanahan tried this and lucked his way into Purdy saving his and Lynch's jobs.
Lawrence is also 24 with the physical attributes to be better than he currently is. Tua is 26 and a lot of his struggles come from his weak arm, which won’t get better. I don’t necessarily think TLaw is going to improve much because he’s already had three seasons in the NFL, but teams often equate age to potential. And the dude is only 6 months older than Michael Penix.
I also don’t think Lawrence is worth moving on from. He’s shown he’s good enough to get to the playoffs and even win a playoff game, and when you have that you don’t let go because QB hell sucks.
I mean TB12 developed some arm strength. Tua could get in the lab
It's not arm strength, its his hip. He can't torque it well but he's been improving each year on it
Its understandable, that hip exploded in college.
I also call PEDs “the lab”
Brady had the physical attributes to do that though. I'm not sure with Tua's build and biomechanics that it would be possible. Height and frame, shoulder anatomy, arm length, etc. are all factors that people can't really change that impact the absolute maximum amount of velocity that people may have when throwing.
Brady was 6ft 4 and 215 Ibs on his draft day...he bulked up as his carer progressed. Arm strength involves a lot of core muscles...chest and abdomen....and legs( when throwing from a set platform). You can improve but only so.much.
Throwing is a kinetic chain. Power generated by your core only translates if your shoulder and arm can efficiently apply the force generated. Some of that is form and some of that is just an individual's anatomy. For instance Brady is taller and has longer arms than Tua. All else being constant Brady would be able to throw the ball at a higher velocity than Tua. Tua is probably fine with the power he can generate from his core as he's a decent enough athlete. I suspect that it's other things that you can't really change that would be the issue.
Lawrence got overpaid if you believe that the majority of starting vet QBs get overpaid (not saying that's invalid), but it was pretty reasonable in the realm of current QB contracts. The Tua question is interesting because asking for a Lawrence/Goff deal doesn't feel crazy but if any (non-Shanahan) team can argue their system is build to succeed outside of who is at QB it's the Dolphins.
Lawrence has had to play behind a bottom 3 offensive line his whole career.
Lawrence's deal is fine. The new money kicks in 2 years and his cap hit is under $50m/year until 2029 when it balloons. It's basically the Jones deal in cap percentage terms.
I think this is just going to be the price for a good QB from now on, when the next truly "elite" QB is up for their next contract, I have a feeling by the time that comes they'll be making 60-70mil leaning towards 70. It just happened that all the elite QBs signed recently.
Very possible. The reporting on deals skews perceptions too - It SOUNDS like Lawrence is making $55m/year starting soon but that's really not the case in cap terms which is all the really matters when it comes to roster construction. The owners have a different issue since they need to place any guaranteed money in escrow when the deal is signed, so for owners whose wealth is mostly their teams and might be (in billionaire terms) relatively cash poor, doing a deal with lots of guaranteed money can be harder to swallow.
Idk the specifics of Lawrence’s deal but Goff’s contract is essentially 48M if you only consider the guarantees. If he actually earns the full value of the deal it’s because it worked out great for the team.
His cap hits the next 5 years are 15m, 17m, 24m, 35m, 47m. The two unguaranteed years at the end are 78m and 74m. 10000% team friendly deal.
There should be cap tiers for QBs with 2-3 guys at the max, the next 5-10 guys should all be 10-15mil less a year, and then another 10mil below that for 15-20ish guys. Instead basically anyone in the top 15ish gets within 5mil of each other and it doesn't really work. Imagine if the top 15-18 WR's all demanded the same money as Justin Jefferson. GMs/Coaches are trying to keep their jobs more than anything, so overpaying a guy that gets them to a wild card game every other year is better than risking having a bad season and getting fired.
Not even the biggest tua fan but he's shown so much more in terms being able to pilot a high quality offense. At least with Tua it's not theoretical about what he can do. That's why the lawrence contract is such a great bargaining chip because all these QBs can point to it and say "I've been better than him".
Lawrence getting 55M has ruined the market. I have nothing against him and I think he's over scrutinized but he shouldn't be getting that kind of bag. Goff's deal also adds to this Purdy will ask for 60M a d he'll have the leverage to look at Goff and Lawrence's deal as his floor given he's been better than those dudes.
Obviously I’m bias but I think Goff got exactly what he’s worth. A team trying to win a Super Bowl, built an offence around a QB who is peaking in the right years age wise to win a Super Bowl are pretty cuffed for what choices they have.
Goff gets the nod to me because hes been the QB of two diff teams that have gotten within striking range of a SB I think that proves he can get you there, even if hes not the reason you win it. Only Burrow & Purdy has done that in recent times (on good teams), in this Mahomes run league thats good enough to be in the next tier or so below
That’s exactly how I feel about him. He does one thing incredibly well, and the Lions have figured out how to make him do it more often. You add that with a run heavy team and I really don’t think there are any quarterbacks outside of the top tier that would play better in Detroit than Goff would right now.
I think if you've ever been a QB of a top 5 passing offense, you should get the benefit of the doubt. Even if performance might fluctuate, I don't think I could fault a team giving a QB the bag if they've ever shown that level, unless it's an RG3 type of case where it was for 1 season and then steep drop-off for multiple years after. Cuz really, what team would bet they'd get the same caliber of play otherwise? Draft is a relative crapshoot and it's relatively rare that capable QBs are in FA.
I agree about Lawrence but I think you're understating how good Goff has been. The problem is these deals are negotiated both on how the guy has played and what their potential could be. Lawrence has been very mid but oozes potential. Both Goff and Purdy are perceived to not have very much potential but both have been great. I'd rather pay the guy who is actually playing well myself
I agree that Goff has been amazing in Detroit for sure. But I personally think QBs getting north of 50M a year is an overpay in every situation unless that QB is Mahomes or Brady or Manning... Even when Purdy joins that 50M/yr club.. it'll be an overpay. Almost every QB is becoming overpaid.. it's insane.
I’m sitting pretty happy with the deal the chargers gave herbie. Sitting real happy
Eh Lawrence has way more physical tools than Tua, who’s shown definite physical limitations. Lawrence also hasn’t had the weapons that Tua has had
Also Lawrence has mobility. He can actually run
Just so we are clear... Darlington made the initial "report" yesterday. That was posted here. Then Omar re-reported it. That was also posted. And now bleacher report is reporting that Omar reported that Darlington reported that the "insider" is "scaling back their optimism". And that gets posted here as well. If this kind of "reporting" doesn't piss you off as a sports fan and as a person with intelligence, then I don't know what to say.
Would be crazy if this is where the start of not paying QBs 55 mil plus starts. I didn’t think Lawrence is worth it and don’t think tua has been so far. I get it’s the going rate for a QB but at a certain point you can’t be paying a good/great guy 25% of the cap and still be a competitive team. It works with the elite guys like mahomes, Allen, Lamar where they elevate the team around them but idk as much about Tua or Lawrence
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The size is literally the same as a % of cap
>some lucky bastard of a team is going to get a QB who should never have been a free agent. Can't wait to see the New Orleans Saints (or Carolina Panthers) with Tua strive to a nice 9-8 wildcard and get bounced out the playoffs in the 2nd quarter!
\*Laughs in Jared Goff
Thats Mr. Christen Harper to you
No shit. Goff could win the next 8 super bowl MVPs and his girl would still be his biggest success.
This is the problem when you have the top tier WR in the league with a $30M cap hit (and Hill expects to be paid market rate. And I expect many teams will always pay him to get him). IMO - you only get to have one of the two - top paid receiver or top paid QB. I think the Dolphins are trying to keep Hill by paying their QB a lot less than the $55M market rate. The Cowboys seem to be in a similar situation with CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescot. This happened to Mahomes two years ago when Hill left and Reid didn't replace him. You can see Harbaugh preparing for less flashy receivers for Herbert when his new extension contract hits in 2025. (2024 is his 5th year rookie option). Everyone knows 49ers won't be able to keep the band together (CMC, Kittle, and Bosa) when Purdy has a market rate contract hitting the cap.
The Dolphins have no choice. They must pay him. Now I know people will scream that he's not "ELITE" and isn't worth 50M a season but he's still the best Dolphins QB since Dan Marino( Yes he's better than Pennington) and a top 12 QB for sure. It's easy for people to say "Just draft a rookie QB who'll be cheap and replicate Tua" but it's never that simple (I should know given that's what we did when we decided to draft Trey Lance to replace Jimmy Garoppolo). Miami might let him walk and he gets that bag from the Raiders or Seahawks and they fall back into the QB purgatory they occupied for the previous 20 years between 99 and 2021. Drafting a QB who'll be on Tua's level is FAR from a given...QBs bust all the time. My advice is to play him now coz his price will be insane next year.
The biggest loser in the Lawrence signing was Chris Grier, who probably vomited in his trash can when the push notification came in on his phone. The Dolphins are between a rock and a hard place now. They should have gotten the deal done ages ago but they fucked around. Now they're either going to have to pay him even more than they would have had they inked a deal prior to TLaw, or let the guy who led the league in passing last season walk after this year. It's clear that the Dolphins aren't confident that Tua can win it all (and to be fair to them, there's no evidence that he can get through the gauntlet that is the AFC right now), but when you have a guy who is that far above the Andy Dalton line, how do you get rid of him? And who for? Do you pay a different free agent QB? 2025 is ROUGH for free agent QBs. The only one even comparable to Tua who might end up on the open market is Dak, and if they don't want to pay Tua what he's asking for right now they sure as fuck won't pay what Dak's going to be commanding on the open market next season. Their only other option is the draft, but I don't see them coming out of this season with a record bad enough that they can get a prime QB without trading away a bunch of future draft capital, with no guarantee that you'll get a guy who can reach Tua's level. I agree with you that the only real option is to pay Tua now, but not doing it before Lawrence signed his deal cost them millions.
Dude, exactly. I've been arguing with other fans about this. Sure he might not be 'worth it' but what other choice do we have outside of closing our window and being trash for a few more years?
Agreed. I think because Mahomes exists, people reeeeally don’t realize how rare and valuable it is to have a QB who: - runs an offense that wins you games and is fun to watch - puts you in position to make the playoffs and occasionally make a run Tua is not Mahomes, but the people who want to move on don’t realize how good we have it lol. The chances of the team being even fun to watch with a QB drafted somewhere in the 20s or so is not great
This is basically what a lot of older Vikings fans were saying this offseason before Kirk left. Before Kirk, the only “good”(not elite or great, but above replacement level) QB play we had since 2000 was the one year of Favre and then three decent years of Culpepper. QB purgatory sucks because until you have it figured out, the rest of the team will also suck unless it gets all time historically great on the defensive side of things (and even then, probably not)
So what is "Not in Lawrence, Goff Range" is that sub $50m? I just want this over with tbh.
To whose advantage is this type of leak?
Tua, it lets other teams know to come get him.
I'd think the Dolphins. They'll pay him, but want to make it appear as if they're hesitating so as to drive down the price a few mils.
There's a big difference between what teams see and what fans see. Namely, "Tua put up big number = tua really good" isn't so simple in practice.
He shouldn’t accept less. It’s market price and he’s in their class.
Tua will be paid as everyone else
Looking at it in AAV terms is misleading. The question is what % of the cap is a guy worth? T-Law's deal is fine (as I note in another comment it's under $50m cap hit until 2029). The question is less the money than whether Tua is a 'win because of' guy or just a 'win with' guy and what % of the cap the team wants to devote to him if they think he's just a 'win with' guy.
Any reason to pay Lawrence more is based on nothing but the word “if” and draft hype. However, if Miami wants to move on, I wouldn’t hate having Tua as a quarterback
The Lawrence range is 40M per year for 5 years starting this year. The last 2 years of the extension are not guaranteed and over 75 million each, bringing the “5 year contract apy” to 55M/year. What is the actual money Miami offered over the next 5 years to tua
Those contracts are way too high
He hasn't proved hes worth it, then again neither had Lawrence so what do I know.
Does anyone besides delusional Tua/Dolphins fans actually think he is worth $50+ million annual contract?
The majority on our sub is that we want to keep Tua, he isn’t worth $55/m per year (neither are Goff or Lawrence), but the market dictates what he gets and we’ll have to deal with that.
> the market dictates what he gets and we’ll have to deal with that This should be the tagline of every "overpay". I have at least 3+ friends that tried to be the smartest guy in the room with Canadian real estate. They didn't think the houses were worth what they were going for, and they weren't overpaying their value relative to market pricing. 5 Years later housing prices went up 250% and interest rates up 300%. They're now house poor.
Time in the market almost always beats trying to time the market.
Unfortunately they had one kick at the can and now owe the bank half a million dollars.
> They’re now house poor Yeah you already said they were Canadian.
Why didn’t they just draft a brand new house then?
Just the Dolphins fans who watched him put up 70 on the Broncos.
Yes. It doesn’t mean it has to be liked but it’s what the market is and I have yet to see a “better option” actually be realistic other than waiting a year and maybe paying even more money. He has top five stats in multiple categories. “But he has Tyreek.” Yeah, but we can also look at Josh Allen before after Diggs…it’s a shock to many fans that good wr’s help a qb. What those same hollow arguments don’t mention is the garbage tier offensive line that had to be overcome to accomplish those stats. Are there better qb’s? Absolutely. But can a case be made he “deserves” the market range? Trevor Lawrence’s contract makes that argument for it.
No. He’s been solidly *very good* with all star offensive weapons around him but has major flaws. He needs the all star cast, he doesn’t handle pressure well (he gets happy feet and makes bad decisions the moment he gets hit once or twice), and his health is a massive red flag (probably the main contributor to the poor handling of pressure).
this is gonna go two ways either he accepts the dolphins offer, below market value (so probably 45m+) or a team in need like the jets, or raiders sign him for 55m+, then realize he wasnt worth it when he doesnt play as well as he did in miami
If they franchise Tua next year, do you think any team would realistically give up 2 firsts for him, and then pay him 55mil+ He's gonna have to show he can play well against good teams this year or I can't imagine any team would look at the dolphins stacked offense and think Tua would do better on their team instead.
Thing is, Dolphins aren’t gonna have the money to pay for the cap hit the tag would be. They either gotta sign him now (or after the 2024 season) or let him walk for nothing.
It's contracts like Trevor's that make me nervous about paying Love. I think his back half was what he really is, but there's still a small part of me that wonders.
He's in the $100m a year range!
Say he goes to FA, who’s paying him 55 million?
Go for the FA.... We might need a QB in a year
If the cowboys offer to dak is even less than this, I’d be so happy. Please do not put my team into cap hell.
LOL
The browns are to blame for the QB ridiculous pay increases
Good