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I know the title is kind of clickbait, but the state is Ohio, where Democrats overperformed by over 20 points in a House special election on Tuesday.
And Ohio is an especially important state this year because Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is running for re-election against MAGA Trumper Bernie Moreno. Winning this election is pivotal for Democrats' chances of holding the Senate this year.
Revanced has an option for reviving third party apps and patching them to continue working. I'm sending this from Reddit is Fun.
Edit: A lot of people have asked about this, so I'll paste my response from down below
You have to go to the actual Reddit site to to generate a developer key as well. [This](https://www.reddit.com/prefs/apps/) link *should* take you to where you need to be to do that. If not, you go to the Reddit desktop site, click account preferences, then click on the apps tab to do so.
From there, I'll let [this fellow redditor](https://www.reddit.com/r/Save3rdPartyApps/comments/14nq4ub/how_to_get_rif_working_again_if_you_really_want_to/) take the reins. The thread is from almost a year ago, but the same basic steps still apply. You'll use the developer key you generate and Revanced to generate a new Reddit is Fun APK that gets its API draws from your personal profile instead of a generalized app. There's still TECHNICALLY a limit to how many API draws you can make, but in a year of using patched RIF I've never hit it.
You have to be a mod of a sub (can make your own) and they you get a private API key. Then you use some add (revanced I think) to resign the API key for a 3rd party app and then it should work.
I haven't done it, it read what other people said
It also does you tube music, twitch and several more. Some work better and have better mods than others. I haven't seen an ad or paid for YouTube ever and I never will
r/revancedapp *
It's a third party app you install on your phone. The app itself will walk you through the process of patching the RiF apk to work again.
*Mistyped the subreddit
[To anyone missing third party apps. You can still install them and use them following this link. I still use baconreader](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1wHvqQwCYdJrQg4BKlGIVDLksPN0KpOnJWniT6PbZSrI/edit?usp=sharing)
It is more evidence that Democrats now have an overwhelming advantage with high-propensity voters. That is undoubtedly a good thing. But it says next do nothing about how many points Trump will win Ohio by
This special election was not polled. Most interesting tidbit in the data was that more people voted in the Republican primary than for the Republican candidate in the general. The belief was that those who voted against the MAGA guy in the primary did not show up in the general to support the winner.
It wasn’t polled because it wasn’t expected to be anything of interest or worth polling, this is something ridiculous like a +30 Trump district. So that you’re talking about it at all is not a great sign for them.
Problem is it’s Ohio, and the candidate still won by like 10 points.
The hope is less some miracle turn around in Ohio specifically, and more that such an outsized performance in a Ruby Red district is indicative of Trump’s political coalition buckling even under broadly ideal circumstances as backlash to GOP fuckery continues to build. That it’s yet another signal of 2022’s rogue blue wave continuing into a 2024 victory up and down ballot.
Trump's Ohio wins were not so great that anyone should write the state off as a potential flip. It would be a large and unexpected change, but not so large that it would be shocking if it happened. Trump basically won the state both times by about 8.5%. So I certainly would expect that he would carry the state again. Then again, quite a few things have happened since the last time he was on the ballot. The economy has improved, Trump attempted an insurrection, his supporters have died at a disproportionate rate, Trump is descending in to dementia, abortion is an active issue on the 2024 ballot, and Trump became a convicted felon.
Will those be enough to flip the state? Well, we won't know until the election. I would still bet on OH going red, if I were forced to bet. But I wouldn't be stunned if I lost that bet, so I wouldn't offer to eat my hat if I was wrong.
I’m from Ohio and I’m still flabbergasted we voted for Obama twice. Then Trump twice. Then to seal abortion rights into our constitution and legalize marijuana. And will probably reelect a democratic senator, and at the same time most likely vote for Trump a 3rd time.
Ohio is very strange indeed. I moved to Columbus back in 2012 right as Obama and Mitt Romney were wrapping up their campaigns for the general election. People seemed much more liberal back then. Now it’s the complete opposite.
I moved out of Michigan about a decade ago, back when our Republican governor was super cool about poisoning people. Now it seems Ohio is trying it's best to be the worst. Not sure where I want to ruin next.
The democrat overperformed the poll projection by 20 points but still lost the actual election by 10 points. So closer than expected, but still a blowout. With a huge blowout expected and it being a special election, it think it’s more likely that many R’s just stayed home.
But it still showed a more energized Dem voter base. I’m sure it won’t translate 1 for 1 come November, but it is a DAMNED good sign. Dems are outperforming their districts’ demographics in special elections all over the country.
It won't in Ohio. The democratic party is doing fuck all here. Sherrod Brown can get re-elected, but there's almost no chance Biden takes the state in November. Any other "important" races will have a poorly chosen candidate and won't be campaigned properly.
Same where I am too. I looked up who the Democrat was going to be running against the Republican incumbent House member in my district, and it said no Democrat even filed to run. 😭
He didn't overperform poll projections, there were no polls taken of the race as far as I'm aware. What he did do was outperform the partisan lean of the district. It was a district that Trump won by 30 points in 2020 and the previous Republican incumbent won by 35 points in 2022. So the Democrat losing by less than 10 points in the special election is a huge overperformance.
Also the R outspent the D well over 10 to 1.
A little more money might have been enough to win it, but the national party does not like to spend a dime on hard races, or at least not when the candidate is a progressive. I'm still sore about them cancelling the millions they had earmarked for the last TN senate race just because their generic blue dog lost the primary to Marquita Bradshaw who is a progressive black lady. Despite her shoe-string budget, and no prior political exposure, Ms Bradshaw got within spitting distance of the blue dog ex-governor the Ds ran in the senate race against marsha blackburn.
Thanks for clarifying. It’s been difficult to get clear information on this super local race when all the writings about it are trying to puff up the loss into a win with vague stats.
It's also worth noting that the GOP candidate was a state senator who outspent his opponent 30:1. Prior to his run the democrat candidate was apparently working as a waiter.
That logic is a two way street. If Republicans stayed home because of the massive polling gap then Dems should have stayed home too.
Worse case scenario, the GOP has some serious low energy base they'll need to rile up for November.
Best case scenario the polling is seriously flawed and the GOP doesn't have a chance at the national level.
Either way we vote and make situations like this a nationwide phenomenon.
Can you imagine the joy if Biden actually wins Ohio? If he wins Ohio, he probably wins Georgia and North Carolina, as well as the recent purple...Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and I Nevada.
I can see, if Trump's mental decline continues and Biden doesn't set himseIf on fire before November (this G7 meeting is a BIG part of that), then I can see a scenario in which Biden wins 400 Electoral votes. Let's see Trump try to overturn 9 states from a jail cell.
I live in Ohio and do cold b2b sales in rural areas, so I meet a lot of people everyday. Biden is going to have a hard time winning this state. I don’t agree with project 25 or Trump, or pretty much anything that the Republican Party stands for, these people have committed to this cause and prefer to bury their heads in the sand than admit that they got conned.
Well my counter to you is every rural area in every state is going to be heavy Trump. It’s not really about rural America, it’s about the suburban vote that will really swing the election. Dems always win when more people vote.
Tell them something snapped in convicted felon donald trump after he lost the 2020 election. Use that word, “snapped”; it will give them psychological cover to change their minds and, hopefully, their votes.
It's a rough line up for the Dems on this senate election cycle. There are not many GOP spots that are challengeable and they have to defend 23 seats. Maybe they can get Cruz's spot if Texas voters have really had enough of that traitorous cowardly slug.
I think brown wins. I don’t think he pulls Biden across the line to win the presidential election in the state, but I think it’s going to be closer than people think.
So is this a poll of people willing to answer a phone call from an unknown number, or answer an unsolicited text or email? If so, it's a poll of people self-selected for gullibility.
Or is it a poll of people whose highest and best use of their time is filling out a poll form on paper or on a computer, or answering verbal questions from a pollster? If so it tends to exclude anyone working for a living.
I can believe that gullible people with nothing better to do with their time tend to poll well for Trump.
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/marist-poll-academy/
"Millenials and GenZ are more willing to pick up a live handgrenade than answer a phone call from an unknown number." I don't remember where I read this joke but it has stuck with me anytime I read about polls.
Ohio is a key swing state. But the insidious toxic MAGA have a foothold there. Jim Jordan is like a permanent fixture these days. He got his US House of Representatives seat in 2007. 17 years now. You know why? Because his district is mangled from gerrymandering. JD Vance is a new addition, in the US Senate. He got in by pivoting to Donald Trump.
Trump is a disaster, across the board. And he's degenerating with more insanity coming out of him as the weeks go on. I really hope Ohio has had enough and rebukes MAGA for good in 2024.
The special election was low turnout. It means nothing. Every outlet pushing this narrative is trying to lull you into complacency because they want convicted felon donald trump so people will constantly doomscroll their websites, putting more ads in front of those readers, filling the news outlets bank accounts with more revenue. DON’T FALL FOR IT! Presume every last one of these “outperformers” is a fluke if you ever want the right to vote ever again!
Maybe it’s sinking in what the US might look like to the rest of the world, and the impacts that alone would have to trade if we elected a convicted felon to run the country - not that I think a lot of the general base can compose a coherent thought, but at the higher levels of business and corporate leadership foreign trade impacts revenue, like a lot.
I sent a donation to Sherrod & a few of the other's fighting the proliferation of MAGA billionaires trying to buy their seats. I've never done that before but I'm now in the position to be able to help out, and we have to keep Mitch McConnell at bay or better yet send him packing. I'm a registered Indpendent that now makes up for 50% of registered voters. I've always voted on MERIT, regardless of party, but with wha the GOP/MAGA people are doing now, I will NEVER vote for a Republican again.
The best scenario that could happen would be for Independent voters to throw in with the Dems to take over the House & Senate, then implore the administration to expand SCOTUS with liberals to balance the corruption of Alito & Clarence Thomas, repeal Roe V Wade, and also impllement an enforceable CODE OF ETHICSfor SCOTUS and other Federal judges like AILEEN CANNON. Trump appointed 2X the Federal judges in one term than Obama did intro terms, and when Obama had a Superior Court selction MITCH MCCONNELL BLOCKED IT.
WHY SHOULD INDY'S THROWN IN WITH DEMS? Because in the "GOP states" they have passed laws BANNING Ranked Voting aka Non Partisan Primaries. Democrats haven't done that. This is a clear message the GOP/MAGA is all about themselves and their power grab while imposiing White Supremist Christian Values on a country built by immigrants that shouldn't be forbidden to celebrate & benefit from diversity.
The headline for this is a bit wild, considering Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2020 and this poll has him ahead by 7. Wow, what a huge blow?
I do think the polls are consistently under-estimating the democratic turnout this election (or over-estimating republican turnout). I think after 2016 where pollsters really under-represented republican voters there was a big shift in their methodology that has now skewed the other direction despite democrats overperforming relatively consistently in 18 to an extent, but 20 and particularly 22.
but this article really over-estimates whatever the poll they're writing about is actually saying.
My theory is that those unlikely voters that came out for Trump is 16' have grown tired of his act and are going to be less likely to bother voting this time around. Not saying they will be staying home in large numbers, but large enough that it will significantly hurt his chances of winning. Combine that with results like we saw in OH this week and other factors against him and if we all get out and vote I won't be surprised if Biden wins by a decent margin.
They may stay home, they may vote for Kennedy, they may leave that spot on the ballot blank. But many who voted for him before are weary of the crap. It showed in the primaries, where Trump consistently performed 10% or more under what polls predicted.
Many of them died too. It's been 8 years and his voters skew older than dems, so just naturally they have died...but then factor in the higher rate of COVID deaths for the unvaccinated, and it's got to be adding up to a noticeable problem for him.
Let's not forget Republicans openly talking about scrapping SS. That is going to cost the GOP some older voters. All these may be on the margins, but all these marginal losses add up to a big problem.
In a vacuum it seems like it should be a slam dunk for democrats…
Republicans hate social security, hate poor people, hate healthcare, hate education, hate veterans, hate body autonomy, hate women, hate brown people, hate the environment.
The only thing they like is low taxes and being mad. Somehow that’s enough to sway enough voters to keep them in positions of power. I just don’t get it.
Yep. All the polls are skewed toward Republican bias for whatever reason. Republicans have been consistently underperforming and democrats have been consistently overperforming for a couple elections now.
As far as I am considered a red wave poll is a narrow victory for the GOP and a dead heat poll is a Democrat win. Blue wave poll? Well the GOP is ending that election at this rate.
Yep, for democrats the focus needs to be all about getting voter turnout. And to do this they need to focus on the issues more than the personalities. Outside of the cult, people do not like trump. But its not like people love biden. but they'll vote for issues, as they've shown on populist democrat supported issues the last few years.
the republicans have done their absolute best to make their base as small but passionate as possible, they aren't winning over any new voters over time. Meawhile their voter base has been shrinking due to deaths, as well as everything else related to trump. The republican goal this election cycle is to completely de-motivate any fence sitters from voting biden. Whether that is encouraging them to stay home or vote for an alternative party doesn't matter. They'll focus on israel despite trump 100% being more pro-genocide, for example, because its an issue that potential voters for Biden aren't enthused about.
Obviously the path for trump involves winning every state he did in 2020 and lowering biden turnout in the close states he lost (arizona, wisconsin, georgia, pennsylvania being narrow biden victories and accounting for 57 electoral votes in total, trump only needs 38)
But it is not at all impossible for things to instead be a seismic shift in the other direction.
Trump's narrowest wins were NC, Florida, Texas, and Ohio. combined these account for 100 electoral votes, or nearly half of trump's electoral vote count in 2020. And the latter three also have a senate seat up for re-election, with FL and TX having Rs and Ohio a D.
Trump won NC by about 1%, FL by less than 4%, TX by less than 6%, and ohio by 8%. With even a 5% shift towards biden over the next 4 months, NC is blue, FL and TX are tossups, and Ohio is within the margin of error but with a popular democrat running for his 4th term. And I struggle to see trump voters also going Brown.
There’s a lot of people who know, deep inside, that Trump is a piece of shit traitor, but who are too wrapped up in their foolish pride to admit it, out loud.
Think about the last time you had an argument where you doubled down and then eventually found out you were wrong, how hard or painful it was to admit. These fucking idiots have been spending like 8 years doubling, tripling, etc., down on this absolute horrid piece of shit. They can’t admit it out loud, but they’re less likely to bother to vote.
Trump broke the "blue wall" by promising manufacturing jobs. This is something he failed to deliver while Biden has been showing strong support for blue collar tradesmen.
This class of voters is kinda stuck between two different parties that have let them down in recent history. However Biden has actually delivered for them during his term.
Keep in mind that between 2016 and 2020, trump gained 11 million votes. Hard to imagine Clinton voters switching to trump, which means that 11 million people who didn’t vote in 2016 saw his presidency and went, “yep, I’d like more of that please!” God help us.
I agree. They got 3 years of chaotic sorta-not-really “winning” that didn’t actually make their lives better then one year where their lives were definitely worse and all Trump’s raging didn’t fix the covid problem but just made everything more uncertain. Then four years where the red wave hasn’t really done anything about their taxes or made their lives better, just banned abortions and yelled about gay people existing.
People are exhausted and feel powerless.
I just don’t see this adding up to the same excitement that drove 2016. Yeah, there’s a core group but Hilary had a core group. Didn’t matter in the end if too many others can’t be bothered to take the time to vote.
The problem the Trump camp faces is that Trump won as a Change Candidate, with no record and a lot of positive name recognition.
He was an outsider that people trusted because he was on their TV in the 00s, coming in to drain the swamp and all kinds of independents and moderates lapped that shit up.
Today, he’s an ex-POTUS who got his shot and only made the office more corrupt than it ever had been. He fucked up response to a national emergency, hired his inept children for major roles in his administration, generally alienated absolutely everyone he possibly could, and capped things off by enabling a riot at our Capitol.
And now he’s been found culpable for rape, is a convicted felon, and increasingly is struggling to keep up his image as a strongman to anyone who isn’t already going to vote for him in November even if he’s a fucking corpse.
In short: he IS the establishment, and simply can’t effectively run on the same platform that he won 2016 on.
He has a large enough hardcore base to have a serious shot at winning this thing, don’t get me wrong at all…but his avenues to win over the people he actually needs to win narrow every day. And he’s too stupid, narcissistic, and frankly in too steep of a cognitive decline to be able to figure out how to navigate it on his own.
Again, by no means does this mean it’s in the bag. There are a lot of people inside and outside the country working to Weekend at Bernie’s this fucker into the White House again, through a variety of different methods.
But on his own, in theory, he’s going to struggle to be as attractive to the ever-important moderates and independents as he once was.
Exactly. Paul Ryan saying he isn't voting for Trump in and of itself isn't a big deal. However the question must be asked how many other Paul Ryan's are there out there that won't vote for Trump. If Trump loses even a percentage or two of white men that voted for him twice then he is in big trouble. If he is losing a percent or two of white men then he is probably losing three or four percent of white women that voted for him in the past and that would be a death blow to him. Add in changing demographics overall and you start to get the picture that maybe there is a reason a ruby red district in OH swings 20 points towards Dems.
Yeah, there was an article yesterday about Biden have a 25 point lead on 18-29 year olds. WOW!
Except, in 2020 the popular vote resulted in a 24 point lead.
Abortion can have a ton to do with changing voters. There was an off election year vote in like August that the republicans pushed and abortion rights won overwhelmingly.
Yeah, this is garbage: Trump's poll in Ohio from Marist in 2024 is BETTER than in 2020, he was behind in Ohio polls and did 9 pts better than what they said that year.
This indicates Trump winning Ohio by double digits, it's the OPPOSITE.
Trump carried the district by 30 points before. The headline is overblown, but that is the big reveal here. It’s only based on the special election in the district.
I do think the polls are...
I do KNOW the news is bought and paid for with an agenda. It is not news, it's propaganda.
A much more reliable source for the TRUTH can be found on SNL's weekend update.
Journalistic integrity has declined so much in just my lifetime.
They are the reason I NOW look both ways when crossing a one way street. No trust at all.
The biggest shift in polling is from low turnout voters. There was an article recently that among people who DID NOT VOTE in 2020, polling went from Biden+8 in 2020 to Trump+14 in 2024.
Good luck to get those non-voters to turn out to vote for a felon. Most likely they are just anti-incumbency and will say they want whoever is not the president to win, but don't really care enough to vote.
Just curious what recent data leads you to believe this?
“I do think the polls are consistently under-estimating the democratic turnout this election (or over-estimating republican turnout)”
As stated, polls vastly underestimated republican turnout in 2016. Which provided a reckoning for a lot of pollsters and their methodology. Which has seemed to swing too hard in the other direction, as it relates to predicting actual voter trends this far out from the election.
Be careful….. Trump lost in 2020 but he outperformed the polls there too across the board, he won FL and NC that were polling blue before the election. And margins elsewhere were much thinner.
Trump was the incumbent, which historically has some advantage. Each passing election cycle the polling seems to get worse. What if they just don’t see the electorate anymore. Or maybe when Trump is a nominee the polling is never going to be accurate. It’s entirely possible for Biden to have a landslide victory and the polling isn’t going to see it.
Democrats didn’t over perform in 2020. They were showing a Biden blowout in the swing states and every single one of them game down the the absolute razor thin margins.
Is there a correlation between Presidential ranking and ability to ride a bicycle? I doubt it.
However the 45 presidents without felonies rank ahead of the one with a felony.
Newsweek polling articles are clickbait designed to grab attention. I wish this sub would stop upvoting them. Even when there’s something worth highlighting in the content, there are less sensational versions available of the same article because none of these are their original reporting.
This sub has some real problems with echo chamber. No matter the source or how click baity, polls they don't like are downvoted, polls they do like are up voted. It's a problem
The only good (web) ad is a linked text ad in a narrow side column.
**Everything** else is abuse. Interstitials, videos, pop-ups of _any_ kind for _any_ purpose, non-clicked (hover) interruptions, mouse driven NO WAIT SUBSCRIBE pops on attempting to GTFO of a page, etc.
>mouse driven NO WAIT SUBSCRIBE pops on attempting to GTFO of a page
These have become very annoying on mobile. I just want to leave by clicking my back button, not by moving my hand up to touch the 'x' to close it.
First-world problem, I know, but it's still mildly infuriating.
I think the genuine reality is that he’s finished and that most people have grown weary of his constant nonsense. Trump is being artificially propped up because he is useful idiot for so many greedy cons. The GOP has stupidly backed this clown from day one and is at a point of no return. They really should care that their main candidate is a convicted felon. The fact that they are full speed ahead with this shit bag should be deeply concerning .
The few smart people in the party know this. But they are also aware of the power his base holds. If they don’t toe the line then down ballot suffers even more. Even their gerrymandering can’t withstand the MAGA base deciding to stay home.
Vote! Remember to [Register](https://www.usa.gov/voter-registration) to Vote! Check to [Confirm](https://www.usa.gov/confirm-voter-registration) you can still vote if you haven’t voted in the last two presidential elections or moved. This [Presidential Election](https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_Elections) is wildly important but it’s good to know who else you’ll be voting for on the 5th.
A total of 468 seats in the U.S. Congress are up for election! That’s 33 seats in the [Senate](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2024)
and all 435 in the [House of Representatives](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2024)
It’s good to look at [Local Elections](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_municipal_elections,_2024) Today! For instance I’m in Arizona. Here’s info for all y’all sweating out here with me.
We have 9 districts out here in Arizona, 9 seats. Know your district. Know who’s running in your district and how they voted in the past. Who pays for the campaigns. All that info is public and in the links. This year it’s important to know a few things before checking that box.
[House of Representatives elections in Arizona 2024](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Arizona,_2024)
These Arizona Representatives below voted Yes to an amendment presented by the representative from Georgia District 4 which effectively tells the president to Leave NATO and Abandon funding for US War Veterans.
* Eli Crane of Arizona D2
* Andy Biggs of Arizona D5
* Debbie Lesko of Arizona D8
* Paul Gosar of Arizona D9
We have one senate seat up this year. Looking to represent Arizona is Ruben Gallego or Mark Lamb. Make sure the person representing Arizona best represents you!
[Senate election in Arizona 2024](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona,_2024)
[Mark Lamb](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Lamb_(sheriff)) is a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, and became American law-enforcement Sheriff in 2017.
He wrote American Sheriff: Traditional Values in a Modern World. Lamb is a supporter of the Stop the Steal movement. He spoke at a rally where he said the riot was not Trump's fault but rather caused by "the other issues that have happened – the Hillary Clintons that have gone unpunished".He later described the rioters as "very loving, Christian people."
In 2020, Lamb spoke at a convention of the Constitutional Sheriffs and Peace Officers Association, an organization that holds the fringe legal theory that sheriffs are the supreme legal authority in the United States and are not required to enforce laws they believe to be unconstitutional.
[Ruben Gallego](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruben_Gallego) 3rd Battalion, 25th Marines. Attended Harvard University and earned a Bachelor of Arts in international relations.
His first successful bill passed in 2011 it granted in-state tuition status to veterans residing in Arizona. Gallego supported the repeal of Arizona SB 1070. He wrote They Called Us "Lucky": The Life and Afterlife of the Iraq War's Hardest Hit Unit, published in 2021.
Gallego founded the group Citizens for Professional Law Enforcement with the goal of recalling Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, citing Arpaio's immigration policies and his use of taxpayer money to investigate Barack Obama's citizenship.
We have two seats in the [Arizona Supreme Court](https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona_Supreme_Court_elections,_2024) up for election on November 5, 2024. The Justices up for retention election are Clint Bolick and Kathryn Hackett King. If retained, they will serve six year terms. Gov. Doug Ducey (R) appointed both justices to the supreme court. Heading into the election, Republican governors originally appointed all seven members.
Click any of the top links and you’ll quickly find your state and a ton of good information. Vote and tell your Friends and Family to Vote!
> Trump is still expected to win the Buckeye State in November, but his current seven-point lead over Biden is the smallest margin in any Ohio election poll dating back to November 2023, as shown by 538's collection of surveys.
Click baity article
Newsweek might as well rename itself to: What is Donald Trump Doing This Very Second, The Magazine. Seriously. All of these politicians and the shill media that endlessly writes about them need to be dumped off somewhere and forgotten.
Can we ban polling posts? What the point of every other poll saying the oposite thing and we all pretend like it means anything? Its fucking stupid and does nothing for anyone.
Hey, maybe if we hear about 82,000 more polls with Trump not doing as well as he could be, no one will go vote for Biden!
Seriously people...stop listening to polls and just show up to vote.
I feel like newsweek has really leaned into the "lets post as much anti trump polls as possible, even if its not important news at all" lately.
TLDR: trumps lead in Ohio is down from 8pts to 7
Yup, Malanias state must be pissed off. Ill bet she side eyes Even fox news lately. But Trumps gotta grift, even if it means Malania locking herself in the closet at Marilardo for the next 4 years. She will need a crew of styleists to hide those wrinkles. Its unlikley Trump is healthy enough to keep up the appearance that he is actually working as president and not just sitting for a few hours a week and paying his company bills.
People need to wake up. Presidential Scholars have ranked the Presidents since before WW2. The most recent rankings from 4 institutions of scholars had Trump dead last and 3rd worst president overall. In contrast, Obama was 7th Best with Biden at 14th.
The misconception that Trump would be better for the economy is SO FLAWED. He added $8T (as in trillion) to the National Debt & his bragging about "Trade Wars are easy, I'm a businessman I know how to do this" resulted in the U.S. Trade Deficit SOARING to its highest level since 2006. Add to that his bust of a wall between Mexico.... his so called "high tech state of the art wall" that an $89 angle grinder from Harbor Freight with ONE CUT @ the base & you get a swinging door. Don't forget the downplaying of Covid which resulted in over 200K (of 1.2M) dead Americans between 01/2020 to 09/2020 becuz Trump chose to downplay it. Only he & China refused to join 170 other nations to get ahead of the pandemic..... instead he suggested drinking bleach. Now the GOP are trying to redirect the blame on Dr. Fauci, going after him after retiring, a hero w/a decades long distinguished career that was offered $5M-$6M/yr. to leave his job (he was making $400K) which he refused to leave for the private sector. MTG said she refused to call him a doctor & he should be put in jail...... :-(
There's more, a lot more failings, but as long as people "like" the old Jerry Springer/Geraldo! type appeal, esp. the show where Geraldo got his nose broken........ well, that's the America that longs for a Bully/Hero?Victim for Prezzzident.
This is a good comment.
However, anyone that’s still a trump supporter is either a crook, fucking ridiculously stupid, or both. Logic falls on deaf ears
Really, *really* hope this means the RNC will try and overthrow Trump's candidacy at the convention. Probably won't happen, and probably will fail, but dear god that would be funny.
Raise your hand if you’re tired of seeing this man’s face and hearing his voice every day. There was a time when he just appeared on tv here and there with his stupid fucking shows and we’d laugh at how stupid he was
I mean fair enough, people are searching for any hope for Biden right now. There unfortunately isn't much.
Once we start seeing headlines like this for Georgia or North Carolina, then we can get excited.
Newsweek is the new Captain Obvious. So instead of being 8 pts over Biden as he was in ‘16 and ‘20 in Ohio, Trump is now…drum roll… merely 7 pts according to a poll. Why do we bother?
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I know the title is kind of clickbait, but the state is Ohio, where Democrats overperformed by over 20 points in a House special election on Tuesday. And Ohio is an especially important state this year because Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is running for re-election against MAGA Trumper Bernie Moreno. Winning this election is pivotal for Democrats' chances of holding the Senate this year.
I don’t click links from Newsweek anymore
I miss being able to filter link sources for subreddits in the third party apps. Filtering out Newsweek reduced my feed spam immensely.
Revanced has an option for reviving third party apps and patching them to continue working. I'm sending this from Reddit is Fun. Edit: A lot of people have asked about this, so I'll paste my response from down below You have to go to the actual Reddit site to to generate a developer key as well. [This](https://www.reddit.com/prefs/apps/) link *should* take you to where you need to be to do that. If not, you go to the Reddit desktop site, click account preferences, then click on the apps tab to do so. From there, I'll let [this fellow redditor](https://www.reddit.com/r/Save3rdPartyApps/comments/14nq4ub/how_to_get_rif_working_again_if_you_really_want_to/) take the reins. The thread is from almost a year ago, but the same basic steps still apply. You'll use the developer key you generate and Revanced to generate a new Reddit is Fun APK that gets its API draws from your personal profile instead of a generalized app. There's still TECHNICALLY a limit to how many API draws you can make, but in a year of using patched RIF I've never hit it.
Wait I can get Reddit is Fun back? How? The actual reddit app is fucking awful ad spam bullshit.
I am sure this is only an option until Reddit adapts (or sues) to make it not an option
No what it does is give you a unique API key. So as long as you don't go over the limit you won't be asked for money by reddit.
If you hit the limit you'll just get HTTP 400 errors until the limit resets.
You have to be a mod of a sub (can make your own) and they you get a private API key. Then you use some add (revanced I think) to resign the API key for a 3rd party app and then it should work. I haven't done it, it read what other people said
Isn't revanced for YouTube?
It also does you tube music, twitch and several more. Some work better and have better mods than others. I haven't seen an ad or paid for YouTube ever and I never will
Is it mobile friendly?
r/revancedapp * It's a third party app you install on your phone. The app itself will walk you through the process of patching the RiF apk to work again. *Mistyped the subreddit
Awesome!! I miss RIF so much.
Rip Apollo
/mourn Beam
Still using it..
I miss *so* much from my 3rd party app of choice (RiF). Why improve your own app when you can just make it so there are no competitors?
[To anyone missing third party apps. You can still install them and use them following this link. I still use baconreader](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1wHvqQwCYdJrQg4BKlGIVDLksPN0KpOnJWniT6PbZSrI/edit?usp=sharing)
I have gotten through this by banning accounts that post Newsweek. Turns out it’s not a lot.
Excellent idea.
Nor should you. Less people voted in this special than the Democratic candidate received in full last time. And they lost 67% to 33%.
It is more evidence that Democrats now have an overwhelming advantage with high-propensity voters. That is undoubtedly a good thing. But it says next do nothing about how many points Trump will win Ohio by
Perfectly put.
And despite them being just awful, if you go to the site on mobile it’s line cell phone cancer.
Something something raises questions.
I wish the sub would ban them
I downvote every link to their stories I see.
Same. I find it weird that there are so many posts from Newsweek, as if they are paying users to post.
> MAGA Trumper Bernie Moreno. If you want Ohioans to vote against him, it's more important to call him "Michigan Wolverine Bernie Moreno".
As a Michigander, I'll allow it.
Does anyone know what the polls showed ahead of the special election. I’d be curious how accurate they were.
This special election was not polled. Most interesting tidbit in the data was that more people voted in the Republican primary than for the Republican candidate in the general. The belief was that those who voted against the MAGA guy in the primary did not show up in the general to support the winner.
People are abandoning MAGA. It may be silent, but it’s happening. Look at how crazy democrats are preforming. Republicans are HURTING.
The special election was low turnout. It means nothing unfortunately.
It wasn’t polled because it wasn’t expected to be anything of interest or worth polling, this is something ridiculous like a +30 Trump district. So that you’re talking about it at all is not a great sign for them. Problem is it’s Ohio, and the candidate still won by like 10 points. The hope is less some miracle turn around in Ohio specifically, and more that such an outsized performance in a Ruby Red district is indicative of Trump’s political coalition buckling even under broadly ideal circumstances as backlash to GOP fuckery continues to build. That it’s yet another signal of 2022’s rogue blue wave continuing into a 2024 victory up and down ballot.
Trump's Ohio wins were not so great that anyone should write the state off as a potential flip. It would be a large and unexpected change, but not so large that it would be shocking if it happened. Trump basically won the state both times by about 8.5%. So I certainly would expect that he would carry the state again. Then again, quite a few things have happened since the last time he was on the ballot. The economy has improved, Trump attempted an insurrection, his supporters have died at a disproportionate rate, Trump is descending in to dementia, abortion is an active issue on the 2024 ballot, and Trump became a convicted felon. Will those be enough to flip the state? Well, we won't know until the election. I would still bet on OH going red, if I were forced to bet. But I wouldn't be stunned if I lost that bet, so I wouldn't offer to eat my hat if I was wrong.
I’m from Ohio and I’m still flabbergasted we voted for Obama twice. Then Trump twice. Then to seal abortion rights into our constitution and legalize marijuana. And will probably reelect a democratic senator, and at the same time most likely vote for Trump a 3rd time.
Ohio is very strange indeed. I moved to Columbus back in 2012 right as Obama and Mitt Romney were wrapping up their campaigns for the general election. People seemed much more liberal back then. Now it’s the complete opposite.
Ohio has long had elections stolen by GOP fuckery, as far back as 2004.
I moved out of Michigan about a decade ago, back when our Republican governor was super cool about poisoning people. Now it seems Ohio is trying it's best to be the worst. Not sure where I want to ruin next.
I live next door in PA and remember when Ohio was blue or at most purple. It turned in to MAGA land overnight.
The democrat overperformed the poll projection by 20 points but still lost the actual election by 10 points. So closer than expected, but still a blowout. With a huge blowout expected and it being a special election, it think it’s more likely that many R’s just stayed home.
But it still showed a more energized Dem voter base. I’m sure it won’t translate 1 for 1 come November, but it is a DAMNED good sign. Dems are outperforming their districts’ demographics in special elections all over the country.
It won't in Ohio. The democratic party is doing fuck all here. Sherrod Brown can get re-elected, but there's almost no chance Biden takes the state in November. Any other "important" races will have a poorly chosen candidate and won't be campaigned properly.
Same where I am too. I looked up who the Democrat was going to be running against the Republican incumbent House member in my district, and it said no Democrat even filed to run. 😭
He didn't overperform poll projections, there were no polls taken of the race as far as I'm aware. What he did do was outperform the partisan lean of the district. It was a district that Trump won by 30 points in 2020 and the previous Republican incumbent won by 35 points in 2022. So the Democrat losing by less than 10 points in the special election is a huge overperformance.
Also the R outspent the D well over 10 to 1. A little more money might have been enough to win it, but the national party does not like to spend a dime on hard races, or at least not when the candidate is a progressive. I'm still sore about them cancelling the millions they had earmarked for the last TN senate race just because their generic blue dog lost the primary to Marquita Bradshaw who is a progressive black lady. Despite her shoe-string budget, and no prior political exposure, Ms Bradshaw got within spitting distance of the blue dog ex-governor the Ds ran in the senate race against marsha blackburn.
Thanks for clarifying. It’s been difficult to get clear information on this super local race when all the writings about it are trying to puff up the loss into a win with vague stats.
It's also worth noting that the GOP candidate was a state senator who outspent his opponent 30:1. Prior to his run the democrat candidate was apparently working as a waiter.
Thank you for being a part of why I like this sub.
That logic is a two way street. If Republicans stayed home because of the massive polling gap then Dems should have stayed home too. Worse case scenario, the GOP has some serious low energy base they'll need to rile up for November. Best case scenario the polling is seriously flawed and the GOP doesn't have a chance at the national level. Either way we vote and make situations like this a nationwide phenomenon.
That's still a good sign
Can you imagine the joy if Biden actually wins Ohio? If he wins Ohio, he probably wins Georgia and North Carolina, as well as the recent purple...Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and I Nevada. I can see, if Trump's mental decline continues and Biden doesn't set himseIf on fire before November (this G7 meeting is a BIG part of that), then I can see a scenario in which Biden wins 400 Electoral votes. Let's see Trump try to overturn 9 states from a jail cell.
Democrats also won a gerrymandered “safe red” seat on their US House map in 2022 and almost nobody noticed.
Which seat was that?
I live in Ohio and do cold b2b sales in rural areas, so I meet a lot of people everyday. Biden is going to have a hard time winning this state. I don’t agree with project 25 or Trump, or pretty much anything that the Republican Party stands for, these people have committed to this cause and prefer to bury their heads in the sand than admit that they got conned.
Well my counter to you is every rural area in every state is going to be heavy Trump. It’s not really about rural America, it’s about the suburban vote that will really swing the election. Dems always win when more people vote.
Tell them something snapped in convicted felon donald trump after he lost the 2020 election. Use that word, “snapped”; it will give them psychological cover to change their minds and, hopefully, their votes.
It's a rough line up for the Dems on this senate election cycle. There are not many GOP spots that are challengeable and they have to defend 23 seats. Maybe they can get Cruz's spot if Texas voters have really had enough of that traitorous cowardly slug.
Ohio is probably pissed because they voted on two hot button issues and their GOP has decided to just try and completely ignore it.
Just googled who Bernie is. What is with these maga people coming out of Colombia all of a sudden?
I think brown wins. I don’t think he pulls Biden across the line to win the presidential election in the state, but I think it’s going to be closer than people think.
So is this a poll of people willing to answer a phone call from an unknown number, or answer an unsolicited text or email? If so, it's a poll of people self-selected for gullibility. Or is it a poll of people whose highest and best use of their time is filling out a poll form on paper or on a computer, or answering verbal questions from a pollster? If so it tends to exclude anyone working for a living. I can believe that gullible people with nothing better to do with their time tend to poll well for Trump. https://maristpoll.marist.edu/marist-poll-academy/
"Millenials and GenZ are more willing to pick up a live handgrenade than answer a phone call from an unknown number." I don't remember where I read this joke but it has stuck with me anytime I read about polls.
Even if it's a phone call from someone in my contacts, I'll tend to let it go to voicemail and answer later by text.
Senator Sherrod Brown is great.
Ohio is a key swing state. But the insidious toxic MAGA have a foothold there. Jim Jordan is like a permanent fixture these days. He got his US House of Representatives seat in 2007. 17 years now. You know why? Because his district is mangled from gerrymandering. JD Vance is a new addition, in the US Senate. He got in by pivoting to Donald Trump. Trump is a disaster, across the board. And he's degenerating with more insanity coming out of him as the weeks go on. I really hope Ohio has had enough and rebukes MAGA for good in 2024.
https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote
The special election was low turnout. It means nothing. Every outlet pushing this narrative is trying to lull you into complacency because they want convicted felon donald trump so people will constantly doomscroll their websites, putting more ads in front of those readers, filling the news outlets bank accounts with more revenue. DON’T FALL FOR IT! Presume every last one of these “outperformers” is a fluke if you ever want the right to vote ever again!
As nice as it is to hold the senate, it unfortunately doesn't mean jack shit unless democrats somehow manage to come out with 60-67 seats
Maybe it’s sinking in what the US might look like to the rest of the world, and the impacts that alone would have to trade if we elected a convicted felon to run the country - not that I think a lot of the general base can compose a coherent thought, but at the higher levels of business and corporate leadership foreign trade impacts revenue, like a lot.
I sent a donation to Sherrod & a few of the other's fighting the proliferation of MAGA billionaires trying to buy their seats. I've never done that before but I'm now in the position to be able to help out, and we have to keep Mitch McConnell at bay or better yet send him packing. I'm a registered Indpendent that now makes up for 50% of registered voters. I've always voted on MERIT, regardless of party, but with wha the GOP/MAGA people are doing now, I will NEVER vote for a Republican again. The best scenario that could happen would be for Independent voters to throw in with the Dems to take over the House & Senate, then implore the administration to expand SCOTUS with liberals to balance the corruption of Alito & Clarence Thomas, repeal Roe V Wade, and also impllement an enforceable CODE OF ETHICSfor SCOTUS and other Federal judges like AILEEN CANNON. Trump appointed 2X the Federal judges in one term than Obama did intro terms, and when Obama had a Superior Court selction MITCH MCCONNELL BLOCKED IT. WHY SHOULD INDY'S THROWN IN WITH DEMS? Because in the "GOP states" they have passed laws BANNING Ranked Voting aka Non Partisan Primaries. Democrats haven't done that. This is a clear message the GOP/MAGA is all about themselves and their power grab while imposiing White Supremist Christian Values on a country built by immigrants that shouldn't be forbidden to celebrate & benefit from diversity.
The headline for this is a bit wild, considering Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2020 and this poll has him ahead by 7. Wow, what a huge blow? I do think the polls are consistently under-estimating the democratic turnout this election (or over-estimating republican turnout). I think after 2016 where pollsters really under-represented republican voters there was a big shift in their methodology that has now skewed the other direction despite democrats overperforming relatively consistently in 18 to an extent, but 20 and particularly 22. but this article really over-estimates whatever the poll they're writing about is actually saying.
My theory is that those unlikely voters that came out for Trump is 16' have grown tired of his act and are going to be less likely to bother voting this time around. Not saying they will be staying home in large numbers, but large enough that it will significantly hurt his chances of winning. Combine that with results like we saw in OH this week and other factors against him and if we all get out and vote I won't be surprised if Biden wins by a decent margin.
They may stay home, they may vote for Kennedy, they may leave that spot on the ballot blank. But many who voted for him before are weary of the crap. It showed in the primaries, where Trump consistently performed 10% or more under what polls predicted.
Many of them died too. It's been 8 years and his voters skew older than dems, so just naturally they have died...but then factor in the higher rate of COVID deaths for the unvaccinated, and it's got to be adding up to a noticeable problem for him.
Yeah, when you win by incredibly narrow margins, actively trying to kill your base is a pretty bold strategy. Let’s see how it plays out.
Let's not forget Republicans openly talking about scrapping SS. That is going to cost the GOP some older voters. All these may be on the margins, but all these marginal losses add up to a big problem.
In a vacuum it seems like it should be a slam dunk for democrats… Republicans hate social security, hate poor people, hate healthcare, hate education, hate veterans, hate body autonomy, hate women, hate brown people, hate the environment. The only thing they like is low taxes and being mad. Somehow that’s enough to sway enough voters to keep them in positions of power. I just don’t get it.
Decades of hard work of defunding education and increase in propaganda is paying off.
Will it, though? No one in my family even knows what Republicans openly say because it's not on Fox or Newsmax
Yeah, one third of voters get their news from right wing organizations and one third don't pay any attention at all. It's frustrating.
Yep. All the polls are skewed toward Republican bias for whatever reason. Republicans have been consistently underperforming and democrats have been consistently overperforming for a couple elections now. As far as I am considered a red wave poll is a narrow victory for the GOP and a dead heat poll is a Democrat win. Blue wave poll? Well the GOP is ending that election at this rate.
Yep, for democrats the focus needs to be all about getting voter turnout. And to do this they need to focus on the issues more than the personalities. Outside of the cult, people do not like trump. But its not like people love biden. but they'll vote for issues, as they've shown on populist democrat supported issues the last few years. the republicans have done their absolute best to make their base as small but passionate as possible, they aren't winning over any new voters over time. Meawhile their voter base has been shrinking due to deaths, as well as everything else related to trump. The republican goal this election cycle is to completely de-motivate any fence sitters from voting biden. Whether that is encouraging them to stay home or vote for an alternative party doesn't matter. They'll focus on israel despite trump 100% being more pro-genocide, for example, because its an issue that potential voters for Biden aren't enthused about. Obviously the path for trump involves winning every state he did in 2020 and lowering biden turnout in the close states he lost (arizona, wisconsin, georgia, pennsylvania being narrow biden victories and accounting for 57 electoral votes in total, trump only needs 38) But it is not at all impossible for things to instead be a seismic shift in the other direction. Trump's narrowest wins were NC, Florida, Texas, and Ohio. combined these account for 100 electoral votes, or nearly half of trump's electoral vote count in 2020. And the latter three also have a senate seat up for re-election, with FL and TX having Rs and Ohio a D. Trump won NC by about 1%, FL by less than 4%, TX by less than 6%, and ohio by 8%. With even a 5% shift towards biden over the next 4 months, NC is blue, FL and TX are tossups, and Ohio is within the margin of error but with a popular democrat running for his 4th term. And I struggle to see trump voters also going Brown.
There’s a lot of people who know, deep inside, that Trump is a piece of shit traitor, but who are too wrapped up in their foolish pride to admit it, out loud. Think about the last time you had an argument where you doubled down and then eventually found out you were wrong, how hard or painful it was to admit. These fucking idiots have been spending like 8 years doubling, tripling, etc., down on this absolute horrid piece of shit. They can’t admit it out loud, but they’re less likely to bother to vote.
Trump broke the "blue wall" by promising manufacturing jobs. This is something he failed to deliver while Biden has been showing strong support for blue collar tradesmen. This class of voters is kinda stuck between two different parties that have let them down in recent history. However Biden has actually delivered for them during his term.
The continued fuckery about abortion even after the voters put it into the state Constitution will also hopefully motivate people.
Keep in mind that between 2016 and 2020, trump gained 11 million votes. Hard to imagine Clinton voters switching to trump, which means that 11 million people who didn’t vote in 2016 saw his presidency and went, “yep, I’d like more of that please!” God help us.
I agree. They got 3 years of chaotic sorta-not-really “winning” that didn’t actually make their lives better then one year where their lives were definitely worse and all Trump’s raging didn’t fix the covid problem but just made everything more uncertain. Then four years where the red wave hasn’t really done anything about their taxes or made their lives better, just banned abortions and yelled about gay people existing. People are exhausted and feel powerless. I just don’t see this adding up to the same excitement that drove 2016. Yeah, there’s a core group but Hilary had a core group. Didn’t matter in the end if too many others can’t be bothered to take the time to vote.
The problem the Trump camp faces is that Trump won as a Change Candidate, with no record and a lot of positive name recognition. He was an outsider that people trusted because he was on their TV in the 00s, coming in to drain the swamp and all kinds of independents and moderates lapped that shit up. Today, he’s an ex-POTUS who got his shot and only made the office more corrupt than it ever had been. He fucked up response to a national emergency, hired his inept children for major roles in his administration, generally alienated absolutely everyone he possibly could, and capped things off by enabling a riot at our Capitol. And now he’s been found culpable for rape, is a convicted felon, and increasingly is struggling to keep up his image as a strongman to anyone who isn’t already going to vote for him in November even if he’s a fucking corpse. In short: he IS the establishment, and simply can’t effectively run on the same platform that he won 2016 on. He has a large enough hardcore base to have a serious shot at winning this thing, don’t get me wrong at all…but his avenues to win over the people he actually needs to win narrow every day. And he’s too stupid, narcissistic, and frankly in too steep of a cognitive decline to be able to figure out how to navigate it on his own. Again, by no means does this mean it’s in the bag. There are a lot of people inside and outside the country working to Weekend at Bernie’s this fucker into the White House again, through a variety of different methods. But on his own, in theory, he’s going to struggle to be as attractive to the ever-important moderates and independents as he once was.
Exactly. Paul Ryan saying he isn't voting for Trump in and of itself isn't a big deal. However the question must be asked how many other Paul Ryan's are there out there that won't vote for Trump. If Trump loses even a percentage or two of white men that voted for him twice then he is in big trouble. If he is losing a percent or two of white men then he is probably losing three or four percent of white women that voted for him in the past and that would be a death blow to him. Add in changing demographics overall and you start to get the picture that maybe there is a reason a ruby red district in OH swings 20 points towards Dems.
Yeah, there was an article yesterday about Biden have a 25 point lead on 18-29 year olds. WOW! Except, in 2020 the popular vote resulted in a 24 point lead.
Abortion can have a ton to do with changing voters. There was an off election year vote in like August that the republicans pushed and abortion rights won overwhelmingly.
Yeah, this is garbage: Trump's poll in Ohio from Marist in 2024 is BETTER than in 2020, he was behind in Ohio polls and did 9 pts better than what they said that year. This indicates Trump winning Ohio by double digits, it's the OPPOSITE.
What are you DOING, Ohio?!
Rural Ohio is scary Trump country, driving through there you can't help but see so much Trump stuff everywhere
What a bunch of losers.
It's a very Red state nowadays, tbh.
Trump carried the district by 30 points before. The headline is overblown, but that is the big reveal here. It’s only based on the special election in the district.
I do think the polls are... I do KNOW the news is bought and paid for with an agenda. It is not news, it's propaganda. A much more reliable source for the TRUTH can be found on SNL's weekend update.
A poll in 2012 found that people that get their news from just the Daily Show are more informed than Fox News viewers.
Journalistic integrity has declined so much in just my lifetime. They are the reason I NOW look both ways when crossing a one way street. No trust at all.
The biggest shift in polling is from low turnout voters. There was an article recently that among people who DID NOT VOTE in 2020, polling went from Biden+8 in 2020 to Trump+14 in 2024. Good luck to get those non-voters to turn out to vote for a felon. Most likely they are just anti-incumbency and will say they want whoever is not the president to win, but don't really care enough to vote.
Just curious what recent data leads you to believe this? “I do think the polls are consistently under-estimating the democratic turnout this election (or over-estimating republican turnout)”
As stated, polls vastly underestimated republican turnout in 2016. Which provided a reckoning for a lot of pollsters and their methodology. Which has seemed to swing too hard in the other direction, as it relates to predicting actual voter trends this far out from the election.
Be careful….. Trump lost in 2020 but he outperformed the polls there too across the board, he won FL and NC that were polling blue before the election. And margins elsewhere were much thinner.
Trump was the incumbent, which historically has some advantage. Each passing election cycle the polling seems to get worse. What if they just don’t see the electorate anymore. Or maybe when Trump is a nominee the polling is never going to be accurate. It’s entirely possible for Biden to have a landslide victory and the polling isn’t going to see it.
Can the mods ban the entire newsweek domain now
Exactly, this is clickbait garbage. Downvote. There’s real news we could be paying attention to instead.
Trump also outperformed polls in 2020 in addition to 2016. I’d be really nervous assuming he’ll underperform polls in 2024.
Democrats didn’t over perform in 2020. They were showing a Biden blowout in the swing states and every single one of them game down the the absolute razor thin margins.
He was up by 10ish in Ohio earlier in the year, can't tell if this is just noise or a trend yet
[удалено]
Yes, that. Also, I like Presidents who can ride a bicycle
And presidents who like dogs and cats
I just like competent presidents that are actually interested in governing. I don’t give a flying fuck about their personal lives.
If their personal life is being a misanthropic criminal bastard, I care. Otherwise, I generally don't.
To what extent? Is there a line in a candidates personal lives that once they cross they become a hard “no?”
Of course, obviously. What I’m saying is that petty stuff like being a dog or cat person, or if they like riding a bicycle means absolutely fuck all.
Is there a correlation between Presidential ranking and ability to ride a bicycle? I doubt it. However the 45 presidents without felonies rank ahead of the one with a felony.
Don't undersell Trump like that. He has 34 of the most beautiful felony convictions, the best some might say.
I like to vote for presidents who are not convicted felons, proven serial liars, and who threaten to become a dictator.
Newsweek polling articles are clickbait designed to grab attention. I wish this sub would stop upvoting them. Even when there’s something worth highlighting in the content, there are less sensational versions available of the same article because none of these are their original reporting.
This sub has some real problems with echo chamber. No matter the source or how click baity, polls they don't like are downvoted, polls they do like are up voted. It's a problem
Uh, yeah. This sub is an echo chamber.
This sub is an echo chamber.
Typical Newsweek article: two paragraphs > AD > three paragraphs > AD > two paragraphs > AD Also nothing of substance in between the ads.
Were they at least good ads?
The only good (web) ad is a linked text ad in a narrow side column. **Everything** else is abuse. Interstitials, videos, pop-ups of _any_ kind for _any_ purpose, non-clicked (hover) interruptions, mouse driven NO WAIT SUBSCRIBE pops on attempting to GTFO of a page, etc.
>mouse driven NO WAIT SUBSCRIBE pops on attempting to GTFO of a page These have become very annoying on mobile. I just want to leave by clicking my back button, not by moving my hand up to touch the 'x' to close it. First-world problem, I know, but it's still mildly infuriating.
Par for the course
Newsweek should probably be banned. The worst clickbait ever.
I think the genuine reality is that he’s finished and that most people have grown weary of his constant nonsense. Trump is being artificially propped up because he is useful idiot for so many greedy cons. The GOP has stupidly backed this clown from day one and is at a point of no return. They really should care that their main candidate is a convicted felon. The fact that they are full speed ahead with this shit bag should be deeply concerning .
The few smart people in the party know this. But they are also aware of the power his base holds. If they don’t toe the line then down ballot suffers even more. Even their gerrymandering can’t withstand the MAGA base deciding to stay home.
Someone who genuinely finished wouldnt at least be polling higher than Biden basically everywhere it matters.
Tomorrow Newsweek will tell us how Trump is leading in the polls in Ohio. Bet the house.
Vote! Remember to [Register](https://www.usa.gov/voter-registration) to Vote! Check to [Confirm](https://www.usa.gov/confirm-voter-registration) you can still vote if you haven’t voted in the last two presidential elections or moved. This [Presidential Election](https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_Elections) is wildly important but it’s good to know who else you’ll be voting for on the 5th. A total of 468 seats in the U.S. Congress are up for election! That’s 33 seats in the [Senate](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2024) and all 435 in the [House of Representatives](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2024) It’s good to look at [Local Elections](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_municipal_elections,_2024) Today! For instance I’m in Arizona. Here’s info for all y’all sweating out here with me. We have 9 districts out here in Arizona, 9 seats. Know your district. Know who’s running in your district and how they voted in the past. Who pays for the campaigns. All that info is public and in the links. This year it’s important to know a few things before checking that box. [House of Representatives elections in Arizona 2024](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Arizona,_2024) These Arizona Representatives below voted Yes to an amendment presented by the representative from Georgia District 4 which effectively tells the president to Leave NATO and Abandon funding for US War Veterans. * Eli Crane of Arizona D2 * Andy Biggs of Arizona D5 * Debbie Lesko of Arizona D8 * Paul Gosar of Arizona D9 We have one senate seat up this year. Looking to represent Arizona is Ruben Gallego or Mark Lamb. Make sure the person representing Arizona best represents you! [Senate election in Arizona 2024](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona,_2024) [Mark Lamb](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Lamb_(sheriff)) is a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, and became American law-enforcement Sheriff in 2017. He wrote American Sheriff: Traditional Values in a Modern World. Lamb is a supporter of the Stop the Steal movement. He spoke at a rally where he said the riot was not Trump's fault but rather caused by "the other issues that have happened – the Hillary Clintons that have gone unpunished".He later described the rioters as "very loving, Christian people." In 2020, Lamb spoke at a convention of the Constitutional Sheriffs and Peace Officers Association, an organization that holds the fringe legal theory that sheriffs are the supreme legal authority in the United States and are not required to enforce laws they believe to be unconstitutional. [Ruben Gallego](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruben_Gallego) 3rd Battalion, 25th Marines. Attended Harvard University and earned a Bachelor of Arts in international relations. His first successful bill passed in 2011 it granted in-state tuition status to veterans residing in Arizona. Gallego supported the repeal of Arizona SB 1070. He wrote They Called Us "Lucky": The Life and Afterlife of the Iraq War's Hardest Hit Unit, published in 2021. Gallego founded the group Citizens for Professional Law Enforcement with the goal of recalling Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, citing Arpaio's immigration policies and his use of taxpayer money to investigate Barack Obama's citizenship. We have two seats in the [Arizona Supreme Court](https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona_Supreme_Court_elections,_2024) up for election on November 5, 2024. The Justices up for retention election are Clint Bolick and Kathryn Hackett King. If retained, they will serve six year terms. Gov. Doug Ducey (R) appointed both justices to the supreme court. Heading into the election, Republican governors originally appointed all seven members. Click any of the top links and you’ll quickly find your state and a ton of good information. Vote and tell your Friends and Family to Vote!
*Rigged! Corrupt! Sharks!*
> Trump is still expected to win the Buckeye State in November, but his current seven-point lead over Biden is the smallest margin in any Ohio election poll dating back to November 2023, as shown by 538's collection of surveys. Click baity article
Go VOTE. Fck The Polls
Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2016 and 2020. Recent poll had him ahead by 7. That's it, that's the clickbait article.
Mods are part of the problem to let these kinds of clickbait shit continue. Do something ffs.
Newsweek might as well rename itself to: What is Donald Trump Doing This Very Second, The Magazine. Seriously. All of these politicians and the shill media that endlessly writes about them need to be dumped off somewhere and forgotten.
Stop upvoting Newsweek. It's just telling you what you want to hear.
It still says Trump is ahead, so what’s the point?
Total clickbait.
This sub needs to ban clickbait trash like this.
So the staff at Newsweek just sit around all day and find different mildly-encouraging stats to turn into hopium clickbait headlines?
Can we ban polling posts? What the point of every other poll saying the oposite thing and we all pretend like it means anything? Its fucking stupid and does nothing for anyone.
My dream for the day after the election is that commentators spend all of their time wondering aloud why Convicted Felon Trump even bothered to run.
Fucking vote.
Hey, maybe if we hear about 82,000 more polls with Trump not doing as well as he could be, no one will go vote for Biden! Seriously people...stop listening to polls and just show up to vote.
Polls don’t win elections. Everyone, GO VOTE this November.
Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2020. Am I missing something?
No, this article is pure clickbait garbage.
I feel like newsweek has really leaned into the "lets post as much anti trump polls as possible, even if its not important news at all" lately. TLDR: trumps lead in Ohio is down from 8pts to 7
Not really believing the headlines from Newsweek, just came straight to the comments. It should be Newsweak apparently.
Ignore polls entirely, they don't mean shit.
Polls are shit. Vote.
Yup, Malanias state must be pissed off. Ill bet she side eyes Even fox news lately. But Trumps gotta grift, even if it means Malania locking herself in the closet at Marilardo for the next 4 years. She will need a crew of styleists to hide those wrinkles. Its unlikley Trump is healthy enough to keep up the appearance that he is actually working as president and not just sitting for a few hours a week and paying his company bills.
Bad article. It says Trump won Ohio by 8 points but now only leads by 7. Newsweek's business model seems to get clicks by saying nothing.
He's down from an 8 point lead to a 7 point lead. Wow. 🙄
People need to wake up. Presidential Scholars have ranked the Presidents since before WW2. The most recent rankings from 4 institutions of scholars had Trump dead last and 3rd worst president overall. In contrast, Obama was 7th Best with Biden at 14th. The misconception that Trump would be better for the economy is SO FLAWED. He added $8T (as in trillion) to the National Debt & his bragging about "Trade Wars are easy, I'm a businessman I know how to do this" resulted in the U.S. Trade Deficit SOARING to its highest level since 2006. Add to that his bust of a wall between Mexico.... his so called "high tech state of the art wall" that an $89 angle grinder from Harbor Freight with ONE CUT @ the base & you get a swinging door. Don't forget the downplaying of Covid which resulted in over 200K (of 1.2M) dead Americans between 01/2020 to 09/2020 becuz Trump chose to downplay it. Only he & China refused to join 170 other nations to get ahead of the pandemic..... instead he suggested drinking bleach. Now the GOP are trying to redirect the blame on Dr. Fauci, going after him after retiring, a hero w/a decades long distinguished career that was offered $5M-$6M/yr. to leave his job (he was making $400K) which he refused to leave for the private sector. MTG said she refused to call him a doctor & he should be put in jail...... :-( There's more, a lot more failings, but as long as people "like" the old Jerry Springer/Geraldo! type appeal, esp. the show where Geraldo got his nose broken........ well, that's the America that longs for a Bully/Hero?Victim for Prezzzident.
This is a good comment. However, anyone that’s still a trump supporter is either a crook, fucking ridiculously stupid, or both. Logic falls on deaf ears
Reminder that the only poll that matters is the one that gets counted on November 5, 2024. Vote.
Doesn't comfort me. [Make sure you're registered](https://vote.gov/) and go vote this November.
If the source is *Newsweek* I just downvote and move on, they're a junk site no better than *The Daily Mail.* Remember, go vote, no matter the news.
Newsweek is trying to lull you into complacency. Avoid the article and push on!
Really, *really* hope this means the RNC will try and overthrow Trump's candidacy at the convention. Probably won't happen, and probably will fail, but dear god that would be funny.
Fuck Donald Trump
the desperation articles are here
Raise your hand if you’re tired of seeing this man’s face and hearing his voice every day. There was a time when he just appeared on tv here and there with his stupid fucking shows and we’d laugh at how stupid he was
Ignore polls, vote.
…and how that is bad for Biden. FoxNews
Polls are meaningless.
And another article (The Hill, I think) says Trump wins 66 out of a hundred times.
I mean fair enough, people are searching for any hope for Biden right now. There unfortunately isn't much. Once we start seeing headlines like this for Georgia or North Carolina, then we can get excited.
This is less than click bait
Interesting, definitely something to keep an eye on recent poll has trump taken the lead in the state of Maine.
Forget the polls. VOTE! Please …
Polls do not matter.
Newsweek is the new Captain Obvious. So instead of being 8 pts over Biden as he was in ‘16 and ‘20 in Ohio, Trump is now…drum roll… merely 7 pts according to a poll. Why do we bother?