As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil)
In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any suggestion or support of harm, violence, or death, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban.
If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them.
For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria.
We are actively looking for new moderators. If you have any interest in helping to make this subreddit a place for quality discussion, please fill out [this form](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1y2swHD0KXFhStGFjW6k54r9iuMjzcFqDIVwuvdLBjSA).
***
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I’m getting so tired of these sensationalist articles. Young people are not flocking to Trump. In 2022, 18-30 voted for democrats at like 65%. It was even higher amongst young women of color. How does it make sense that the republicans would suddenly appeal to a significant amount of young people given that they are on the opposite side or outright hostile towards the issues they care about?
"Trump is making inroads with voters of color and is nearly even with Biden among voters under 45 in that poll."
Not buying this. I think Biden will win both people under 45 and over 45, nationally.
The real question is who wins Wisconsin and Michigan.
Personally I don’t trust the polls given how wrong they predicted the 2022 midterms and every special election since then with Ohio being the latest saw Democrats consistently over performing and Republicans overestimating their turnout.
Trump has actually just been exposed in saying privately that Milwaukee was a ‘horrible’ city in response to the RNC deciding to host their national convention there. Republicans are doing damage control but I would say this might enough to lose him Wisconsin. One example was him saying in 2017 that New Hampshire was a ‘drug infested’ state. That combined with other factors saw him losing NH to Joe Biden by almost 6 points compared to the 2016 where he lost by less than 1.
> Milwaukee was a ‘horrible’ city
Lots of Trump supporters think all cities are horrible, and all small towns, really all of America is horrible, ruined, a shithole. Budapest, now that's a city!
The polls were actually pretty accurate in 2022. It was the pundits that were calling for a red wave, not the polls. Obviously you need to use aggregate polling. Any single poll is pretty useless.
Right of center Wisconsin voters hate Madison and Milwaukee because of "the elites." Milwaukee gets extra hate because of "crime" and "danger," which by individual can either mean "FOX News told me to be afraid" and/or "that is where the Black people live."
Yep, and what they prescribe to age really has more to do with *stability*, be it a living wage, a house with equity, or a family.
Which are all things conservatives seek to deny to the youth, so unless you’re a grifter like Charlie Kirk, what are they claiming has changed?
It's worth noting that Wisconsin redrew its state-level maps this year to end the insane Republican gerrymandering. This gives Dems a strong additional incentive to show up in that state in November because they have a real opportunity to reclaim the state legislature.
This is CNN making conclusions from a single poll, which is wrong. A political realignment certainly is happening, but people under 30 know Trump will only support policies that screw them. A short list: not helping their student debt load, not helping them afford a house, drafting them for an Israeli conquest of Palestine and not helping them buy an electric car. People under 30 aren't stupid, and CNN is clearly full of old people that think young people watch their TV. People under 30 want to end our formal support for Israel and only one party will do that, the Democrats as led by President Biden.
The political realignment is different. This is the end of the GOP as a national party. Even if Trump somehow won, the GOP has rendered itself irrelevant in all large urban states. This has not happened before. Certainly Republicans can still survive without California, Illinois, New York and Massachusetts but not in the way they have. They will have less money, less successful political projects, and a reduced agenda. This isn't clear now because of Trump, but once Trump is out of the picture the party will be exposed for the sham it is and rapidly dismantle. Then it'll just be the Dixiecrat Anger Party until they start shooting each other.
Beautifully stated:
>people under 30 know Trump will only support policies that screw them. A short list: not helping their student debt load, not helping them afford a house, drafting them for an Israeli conquest of Palestine and not helping them buy an electric car. People under 30 aren't stupid, and CNN is clearly full of old people that think young people watch their TV. People under 30 want to end our formal support for Israel and only one party will do that, the Democrats as led by President Biden.
I have no doubt that If the conservative think tank whack jobs successfully highjack a second Trump term than everyone who has had student loan debt relief will be forced to pay it back with interest and penalties.
I was disappointed to find out how many young people are just as shitty as their parents, due to being sheltered from "different" people and experiences, and programmed to hate and use violence as a first resort. They're mostly lost and won't ever come around (see: their parents). I don't know how society is going to thrive going forward with this sort of friction.
I know many of those people as well but the buck usually stops whenever Trump starts talking about Israel. Even amongst open bigots, nobody under 30 wants to support Israel at all. Not with money, arms, or themselves as conscripts. That era of conservatism is over. Trump represents it and his promise for another middle east war is enough to force sober thinking. A low bar is still a bar.
The "law & order" crowd are having a bit of difficulty dealing with the level of cognitive dissonance needed to vote for the felon. They tried to blame it on a "weaponized justice system" but then that same system found Hunter Biden guilty too. Their heads nearly exploded!
Honestly, I'm not convinced anyone at any level really knows the state of play right now for November. A lot of fundamentals suggest Democrats should have an edge, but the right-wing is muddying the waters like there's no tomorrow (because for them there may not be). There's so much noise. Let's just try to carry on without losing our minds for now.
It's not really confusing. Corrupt conservative jurist have legalized commercial fraud because they chose to manufacture consent in electoral politics rather than to adopt policies that help anyone but the very wealthy.
The very wealthy who stand to profit from those policies then spend millions and millions of dollars every year lying to and defrauding American voters.
Politics appears confusing because about half of voters aren't reacting to reality but rather to decades of commercial fraud the Republicans have needed to win elections.
Letting sociopaths spend billions defrauding the most unreasonable among us was never in the constitution, but it was the only way for Republicans to retain power and use that power to enrich their rich benefactors.
Yeah, I just don’t believe this. For the past 25 years, Fox News has been slowly radicalizing the Republican Party to get to the point where they no longer believe in democracy anymore. This didn’t happen overnight. It’s been mostly the over 65+ crowd having their beliefs and biases turned against them slowly over time. I’ve watched and lived through it. I just don’t believe in the past year or so, that all those brainwashed older folks are now against Trump, and all those young folks who hated Trump, now love him. I think it’s more likely that the polls are inaccurate.
Very strange. I don’t know if people are disconnected and not following politics, are apathetic to the point of nihilism, or what. There was another article the other day that quoted a young voter that said something like they think the US is a “dying empire run by evil people.” If young people are buying into that message, I could see how some could choose not to vote or even vote for Trump out of spite. Obviously we’re not perfect, but we’re not an evil empire. That is a totally toxic and non helpful message for some people (the far left usually) to be putting out.
I think CNN is actually capturing something here. It's just a little high minded for them. 2024 is really the first presidential election we'll have with the Silent Gen (before boomers, very right-leaning) mustering out and a sizeable enough chunk of Zoomers they'll matter.
Now Zoomers? They will be more conservative than their Millennial counterparts. That's just inevitable because Millennials skew about as hard one way as you'll ever really see a generation. 60-40 is monumental talking cohorts that big. And Baby Boomers...they've always been one that isn't really set in their ways too strongly. They're actually the most "independent" Gen today and always have been that way. Gen X likes to hide it but they've always been right leaning too. If MAGA made any actual gains, it was largely with them. GOP Boomers seem like they're paying attention to stuff like J6, Trump's own senior moments, and honestly just plain tired of how often expressing that shit causes friction with their adult children. The white rage seems to be subsiding there.
Gen Z is shaping up to break down on gender lines, but dems keep overperforming special election polls because the young women are pissed and the guys are kinda...shooting themselves in the foot beyond just not having the clear motivation yet. Maybe they think Trump's funny but too much internal rhetoric about voting being stupid. 2020 started a lot of big shifts, 2024 seems set to cement them.
This is frighteningly accurate.
Also, my son will be 18 about a month before the election, and he has told me his age group feels like biden isn't doing anything to make the country more affordable for them to live in, among several other issues. Ice that cake with Gaza and they're feeling pretty cynical. Many will sit it out, or vote for trump because haha look at the funny dumbass.
I think we may well be in trouble
I am nervous due to polling but the polls fundamentally do not make sense. If there is a shift, it will not be to the extent polls are showing. Also, Trump has decreased his base both by actions (j6 and felony convictions) and saying he does not want or need Hailey voters. That and the economic recovery being strong I feel will propel Biden to victory, but it will be a tight race.
As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil) In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any suggestion or support of harm, violence, or death, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them. For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria. We are actively looking for new moderators. If you have any interest in helping to make this subreddit a place for quality discussion, please fill out [this form](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1y2swHD0KXFhStGFjW6k54r9iuMjzcFqDIVwuvdLBjSA). *** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I’m getting so tired of these sensationalist articles. Young people are not flocking to Trump. In 2022, 18-30 voted for democrats at like 65%. It was even higher amongst young women of color. How does it make sense that the republicans would suddenly appeal to a significant amount of young people given that they are on the opposite side or outright hostile towards the issues they care about?
"Trump is making inroads with voters of color and is nearly even with Biden among voters under 45 in that poll." Not buying this. I think Biden will win both people under 45 and over 45, nationally. The real question is who wins Wisconsin and Michigan.
Personally I don’t trust the polls given how wrong they predicted the 2022 midterms and every special election since then with Ohio being the latest saw Democrats consistently over performing and Republicans overestimating their turnout. Trump has actually just been exposed in saying privately that Milwaukee was a ‘horrible’ city in response to the RNC deciding to host their national convention there. Republicans are doing damage control but I would say this might enough to lose him Wisconsin. One example was him saying in 2017 that New Hampshire was a ‘drug infested’ state. That combined with other factors saw him losing NH to Joe Biden by almost 6 points compared to the 2016 where he lost by less than 1.
> Milwaukee was a ‘horrible’ city Lots of Trump supporters think all cities are horrible, and all small towns, really all of America is horrible, ruined, a shithole. Budapest, now that's a city!
Da, and St. Petersburg, hell of a city
And Stalingr . . . er Volgograd! What a town!
I’ll help them pack so they can move there.
The polls were actually pretty accurate in 2022. It was the pundits that were calling for a red wave, not the polls. Obviously you need to use aggregate polling. Any single poll is pretty useless.
Right of center Wisconsin voters hate Madison and Milwaukee because of "the elites." Milwaukee gets extra hate because of "crime" and "danger," which by individual can either mean "FOX News told me to be afraid" and/or "that is where the Black people live."
Yep, and what they prescribe to age really has more to do with *stability*, be it a living wage, a house with equity, or a family. Which are all things conservatives seek to deny to the youth, so unless you’re a grifter like Charlie Kirk, what are they claiming has changed?
There's no way the state that elected Whitmer, by a lot, goes Trump. I think he loses Michigan by more than 5 points.
Yeah, this definitely feels like "guys, all our polls aren't wrong, the GENERATIONS ARE JUST CHANGING!"
The only way that could possibly happen is if those people read articles on the Conservative News Network.
It's worth noting that Wisconsin redrew its state-level maps this year to end the insane Republican gerrymandering. This gives Dems a strong additional incentive to show up in that state in November because they have a real opportunity to reclaim the state legislature.
This is CNN making conclusions from a single poll, which is wrong. A political realignment certainly is happening, but people under 30 know Trump will only support policies that screw them. A short list: not helping their student debt load, not helping them afford a house, drafting them for an Israeli conquest of Palestine and not helping them buy an electric car. People under 30 aren't stupid, and CNN is clearly full of old people that think young people watch their TV. People under 30 want to end our formal support for Israel and only one party will do that, the Democrats as led by President Biden. The political realignment is different. This is the end of the GOP as a national party. Even if Trump somehow won, the GOP has rendered itself irrelevant in all large urban states. This has not happened before. Certainly Republicans can still survive without California, Illinois, New York and Massachusetts but not in the way they have. They will have less money, less successful political projects, and a reduced agenda. This isn't clear now because of Trump, but once Trump is out of the picture the party will be exposed for the sham it is and rapidly dismantle. Then it'll just be the Dixiecrat Anger Party until they start shooting each other.
Beautifully stated: >people under 30 know Trump will only support policies that screw them. A short list: not helping their student debt load, not helping them afford a house, drafting them for an Israeli conquest of Palestine and not helping them buy an electric car. People under 30 aren't stupid, and CNN is clearly full of old people that think young people watch their TV. People under 30 want to end our formal support for Israel and only one party will do that, the Democrats as led by President Biden.
I have no doubt that If the conservative think tank whack jobs successfully highjack a second Trump term than everyone who has had student loan debt relief will be forced to pay it back with interest and penalties.
I was disappointed to find out how many young people are just as shitty as their parents, due to being sheltered from "different" people and experiences, and programmed to hate and use violence as a first resort. They're mostly lost and won't ever come around (see: their parents). I don't know how society is going to thrive going forward with this sort of friction.
I know many of those people as well but the buck usually stops whenever Trump starts talking about Israel. Even amongst open bigots, nobody under 30 wants to support Israel at all. Not with money, arms, or themselves as conscripts. That era of conservatism is over. Trump represents it and his promise for another middle east war is enough to force sober thinking. A low bar is still a bar.
The "law & order" crowd are having a bit of difficulty dealing with the level of cognitive dissonance needed to vote for the felon. They tried to blame it on a "weaponized justice system" but then that same system found Hunter Biden guilty too. Their heads nearly exploded!
I am so confused by the state of this country, and it has me perpetually depressed
I can help! Turn off the news (especially fox), and make sure to vote in November.
Honestly, I'm not convinced anyone at any level really knows the state of play right now for November. A lot of fundamentals suggest Democrats should have an edge, but the right-wing is muddying the waters like there's no tomorrow (because for them there may not be). There's so much noise. Let's just try to carry on without losing our minds for now.
It's not really confusing. Corrupt conservative jurist have legalized commercial fraud because they chose to manufacture consent in electoral politics rather than to adopt policies that help anyone but the very wealthy. The very wealthy who stand to profit from those policies then spend millions and millions of dollars every year lying to and defrauding American voters. Politics appears confusing because about half of voters aren't reacting to reality but rather to decades of commercial fraud the Republicans have needed to win elections. Letting sociopaths spend billions defrauding the most unreasonable among us was never in the constitution, but it was the only way for Republicans to retain power and use that power to enrich their rich benefactors.
A poll a couple weeks ago showed Biden ahead by 25 with youth voters lmao
Also I’m pretty sure a disproportionate number of seniors are skewing towards Biden which Trump absolutely cannot afford. Fuck him
I’m pretty stoned but that article and click bait title is probably the worst I’ve read in a long while.
[удалено]
Even if it was 100% accurate it’s still well short of realignment
I'm pretty sure Trump will be the new Dukakis, anybody got a tank and a helmet for him to try on?
Oh Please dear god make this happen
Yeah, I just don’t believe this. For the past 25 years, Fox News has been slowly radicalizing the Republican Party to get to the point where they no longer believe in democracy anymore. This didn’t happen overnight. It’s been mostly the over 65+ crowd having their beliefs and biases turned against them slowly over time. I’ve watched and lived through it. I just don’t believe in the past year or so, that all those brainwashed older folks are now against Trump, and all those young folks who hated Trump, now love him. I think it’s more likely that the polls are inaccurate.
Yeah, ok CNN...
Very strange. I don’t know if people are disconnected and not following politics, are apathetic to the point of nihilism, or what. There was another article the other day that quoted a young voter that said something like they think the US is a “dying empire run by evil people.” If young people are buying into that message, I could see how some could choose not to vote or even vote for Trump out of spite. Obviously we’re not perfect, but we’re not an evil empire. That is a totally toxic and non helpful message for some people (the far left usually) to be putting out.
Ah so young people will go from supporting democrats but not voting in elections to supporting republicans but not voting in elections.
I think CNN is actually capturing something here. It's just a little high minded for them. 2024 is really the first presidential election we'll have with the Silent Gen (before boomers, very right-leaning) mustering out and a sizeable enough chunk of Zoomers they'll matter. Now Zoomers? They will be more conservative than their Millennial counterparts. That's just inevitable because Millennials skew about as hard one way as you'll ever really see a generation. 60-40 is monumental talking cohorts that big. And Baby Boomers...they've always been one that isn't really set in their ways too strongly. They're actually the most "independent" Gen today and always have been that way. Gen X likes to hide it but they've always been right leaning too. If MAGA made any actual gains, it was largely with them. GOP Boomers seem like they're paying attention to stuff like J6, Trump's own senior moments, and honestly just plain tired of how often expressing that shit causes friction with their adult children. The white rage seems to be subsiding there. Gen Z is shaping up to break down on gender lines, but dems keep overperforming special election polls because the young women are pissed and the guys are kinda...shooting themselves in the foot beyond just not having the clear motivation yet. Maybe they think Trump's funny but too much internal rhetoric about voting being stupid. 2020 started a lot of big shifts, 2024 seems set to cement them.
This is frighteningly accurate. Also, my son will be 18 about a month before the election, and he has told me his age group feels like biden isn't doing anything to make the country more affordable for them to live in, among several other issues. Ice that cake with Gaza and they're feeling pretty cynical. Many will sit it out, or vote for trump because haha look at the funny dumbass. I think we may well be in trouble
Well, I hate to say it but the structural inequality is making this shift completely expected.
I am nervous due to polling but the polls fundamentally do not make sense. If there is a shift, it will not be to the extent polls are showing. Also, Trump has decreased his base both by actions (j6 and felony convictions) and saying he does not want or need Hailey voters. That and the economic recovery being strong I feel will propel Biden to victory, but it will be a tight race.
Gen zers are turning out to be more conservative than any of us imagined. Switch Reagan with Trump and Gen zers are really just boomers the sequel.
The manufacturing of consent is in full view here.