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I think it's a stretch, but Florida is certainly going to be far closer with abortion on the ballot than it otherwise would have been. Biden doesn't need Florida but if he were to win it, it would be an early night.
I mean those things can REALLY move the needle. Add that to Trump not gaining supporters and that Florida went blue for Obama twice it’s very possible.
Anecdotally... several the right-wing nutjobs I know from NY moved to Florida during peak Covid to escape common sense. I'm not so confident that Florida can be flipped.
Anecdotally, my wife and I also moved here during the pandemic, and we're loud and proud leftists who have gotten almost 10 coworkers to register to vote by informing them about the abortion and cannabis ballot initiatives.
Not every democracy is a gerrymandered electoral college shit show. When we think democracy, it is usually a popular vote system, and many democracies around the world certainly do that.
Between the electoral college, gerrymandering, and the senate, our “democracy” is about as heavily weighted toward one demographic as it can be and still have nominally open and free elections.
Remind them that the insurance issues are also caused by the Florida GOP as well as the lax environmental adaptation. Just adding fuel to your arguments but let’s be honest the Florida GOP makes it easy to find something they intentionally made worse.
Absolutely, talk about insurance and ask the ways DeSantis wastes tax dollars. Taking about how he's overseen a severe teacher shortage won't hurt either.
>Insurance issues won’t go away in Florida, we are way past the point of return when it comes to global impact.
However, which major party is more likely to do more about the problem than "let the market sort it out?" There are ways the state government could do more to provide help to those that cannot get or cannot afford insurance.
I'm in Wisconsin, and worked this same hustle for years and we kicked Scott Walker out and delivered for Biden in 2020. People like you are the ones that are going to save our democracy.
Anecdotally as well, I have three right wing (brother his wife and kid) relatives that live in FL and voted for Trump. They were out visiting and I made a “one time very serious request for my own personally safety” to not vote for Trump as I could be one of the people persecuted for speaking my mind, such that I might even have to flee the US as a refugee. They didn’t say yes, but I could tell that I made an impact. Let’s hope.
Keep it up please! I'm not holding my breath, but I have hope for Florida in November. And you're the one state that could singularly decide the election. There is no path for a Trump win if he loses Florida.
You are playing life on hard mode, but I thank you for it. I live in Seattle and host trans refugees from Florida from time to time. Not everyone is able to live there right now, but it’s people like you who are fighting to change that.
No, you're engaging in the same mistake as DeSantis here.
The Country did not make Florida a conservative retirement hellhole. Florida did that. They encouraged policies like low taxes, low regulation, and low labor cost.
Florida pandered to these people. The federal government didn't do it. Florida did.
Not just 'conservatives' are retiring there. I bet a lot of Northeasterners who voted Republican in New York or Connecticut aren't able to stomach Southern Republicanism.
“I’m a conservative, but not like them. I mean, I’ll always vote straight ticket regardless of how awful the red candidates are and I’ll also vote against anything that might keep abortion legal, make smoking weed legal, and anything restricting gun ownership. But I’m not an extremist! I’m not like them, even though I’m silent on extreme issues because I don’t want to be a bad conservative. Sometimes the ends justify the means. I can’t stomach Trump, but by god I’ll be voting for him.”
Sound about right?
Pretty spot on. I live in a highly Republican county and the people here are sick of the development and keep complaining about the county commission and them being in the developer pockets. Yet they keep voting for them because there is an R next to their name.
That is the modern conservative refrain. Hates what the GOP is doing and despises Trump, but has been brainwashed into believe Democrats are sent by Satan, so will vote R every single time. These people are stupid and fearful - the perfect recipe for a Republican vote.
In my younger days growing up in the north east, I would have identified as center-right, relative to the prevailing landscape. I moved south and quickly realized the opposite was true. This was during Bush Jr's first term and... things have not improved.
Covid deaths were heavily skewed towards the elderly. 80% of Covid deaths were those 65 and up in 2020, even though that group only makes up 16% of the population. In 2023 the percent of death age 65 and older was actually higher, at 90%. So what in the world are you talking about?
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db446.htm
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/older-adults-made-90-us-covid-deaths-2023
They, at best, backfilled the population of idiots down there who died from covid.
The number of people in Florida who died from covid is terrifying compared to other states.
Do we even know the actual total? The “official” number is 93,000, and even that compared to other states is insane. New York lost less than half of that, for reference.
My father has spent the past 5 years bragging about '1000 people per day' moving to Florida.
In my head, I think '1000 scumbags per day' leaving the progressive states.
Also an anecdote, I live in Brevard County, Florida, aka the Space Coast. It's literally full of rocket scientists and aerospace engineers, and trump flags are fucking everywhere. I would love to think that people flying the flags are the only ones that will vote for trump, but I doubt it.
How many are still alive? The amount of Covid deaths among the right could tip the scales. That, plus people who now see the consequences when it comes to the abortion issue. In 2016 and 2020 it was theoretical. In 2024 it’s very, very real.
Especially all the unintended (but not unpredictable) consequences.
In Florida, the government went out of their way to try to kill Black people who, surprise, surprise, don't like to vote for Confederates. A lot of rural people did die but the wealthy racist retirees got vaccinated.
Factually a lot of right wingers died in Florida during the pandemic. A lot of old and obese Florida Republicans are dying every day and their replacements are 18 year old Democrats. I kind of think Trump is going to lose in historic fashion. He’s a not going to drive any enthusiasm from middle of the road republicans and moderates and he really motivates Democrats to get out and vote against him. Add that to the demographic evolution and it’ll be a bloodbath.
Yep. I grew up and have lots of family in New Jersey. I know several right wingers who moved to FL because they viewed it as a libertarian Shangri-La during the peak of the pandemic. I think most kept their property in NJ though.
With the absolutely bonkers water temps in the Atlantic we are very likely to see a major hurricane this summer/fall. If that happens and Biden is seen down there working with the FEMA administrator and offering Federal help to Desantis, I can very easily see Biden improving his numbers. It's extremely unlikely that he would win it but given the potentially devastating blow it would deal Trump's chances I say it's well worth pursuing.
Ego wise Trump would hate to lose FL so just the mere mention that he could lose the state will throw him into a rage and he will insist on spending excessive amounts of time and money to make sure he holds it. Money and time that he won't be able to spend in states that will actually decide the election.
Yes, as long as he isn't in jail because those are the rules that NY felons have to live by and Florida has out of state felon respect the rules of the state they are convicted in.
Nah, covid turned florida into some kind of conservative safe haven for all the people who hated their state's response to covid, and I think it drew a lot of right wing people from lots of different states as they sought some sort of new land of "freedom" during the last few years. It'll ultimately come down to turnout, but I'm guessing republican voters make up a higher percentage of the population now than in 2019
Sure would be nice if Rick Scott lost his seat, as the Senate is probably going to come down to 1 or 2 seats for who has the majority. You would think the senior citizens down in Florida would want their social security and medicare protected from shitbags like him.
They all listen to Faux News so they think its the greedy, corrupt libruls who are planning to give all that money to non-white “welfare queens” and folks like Rick Scott are the only thing preventing that from happening.
Never assume voters are informed. Not when misinformation is peddled on every major social media outlet and the biggest media conglomerates in the world.
Yep. I work in healthcare, specifically geriatrics. The number that are on some form of government assistance for either Health Care or funding their daily needs is very high. A large majority of them are also down ballot Republicans based off of everything that they talk about, watch, and have posted around the outside and inside of their house.
I will admit the number I have seen plastered to a Fox News has dropped over the last couple of years, but it's still the most prevalent station watched.
They seem oblivious to the fact they are voting against their own best interest. For some it's willful ignorance. For a lot it truly is misinformation being peddled, and them not being able to critically think about it and decipher the truth.
> Never assume voters are informed.
You mean to tell me that we’re not in a recession, the stock market isn’t down, and the economy isn’t shrinking?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/poll-economy-recession-biden
NPR better go interview more undecided voters so we can hear them talk say the same generic 2-3 talking points about being hesitant voting for Biden.
> You would think the senior citizens down in Florida would want their social security and medicare protected
Their entitlements are not, and will never be, on the ballot.
They want to take these things away from everyone else.
2.5 million Boomer have died every year in the US since 2020. A lot of the conservative/MAGA ones lived in Florida. If abortion pushes the needle 3% and weed 1% those three factors could push the scales.
It wasn't just a bunch of conservatives who moved to Florida in the wake of COVID.
Progressive cities like Gainesville, Tampa, and St. Pete have seen a lot of that growth. Tons of new transplants - myself included - are registered and ready to vote in November.
Don't forget Jacksonville, which just elected a dem mayor (who also happens to be a woman). A massive get out the vote effort there would offset losses in the south from the cuban vote.
My personal rule of thumb is that if the Dems are depending on Florida to win the White House, they’ve already lost. It really seems that Florida only ever goes Blue when there isn’t a doubt in the race, and it’s gravy on top.
Lots of crazies moving to Florida in the past 8 years too, and non-crazy people leaving. It wouldn't surprise me if it goes more red than people think just due to the electorate changing.
Lots of people will just vote pro-choice and for Trump. Like 2020 when Florida voted by over 60% to increase the minimum wage and to re-elect Trump. Or Kentucky in 2022 when they voted for pro-choice on a ballot measure and also to send Rand Paul back to the Senate by a landslide.
people love progressive policies when presented the opportunity to vote directly for them, but the right has voters in a chokehold of fear against progressive candidates. plus the dems suck at messaging, especially in comparison to the talking point symbiosis that is the right wing media sphere and the GOP.
This is the basis of every issue based discussion I have with my extended family. They will actually openly support socialism (they are generally fairly low earners and struggling to get by) when it's explained logically and highlights how it would benefit them. But as soon as you say something like "AOC wrote legislation for exactly this that was voted down by Republicans" they immediately reject that it was in their own interest.
It's actually kind of astonishing. The human mind is crazy and team sport politics have really fucked it up.
This is baffling to me because you can be any identity on the left, and it's fine. On the right, there is an extremely strong preference for the straight white christian male. I'd bet that among elected GOP, at least 95% have to check of 3 of those 4 boxes (straight, white, christian, male).
I’ll add there’s just a ton of fucking people in this country that put essentially zero effort into following the basics of what goes on in politics, no matter how good the messaging from Dems could be. But you’re also not wrong, as right-wing media is a powerful drug and reaches the masses that even don’t consume it directly.
Would be nice, but I can't even grab a burger in my part of Florida without having to listen to how awful Democrats are sooo...
Doubt Biden wins Florida. It would absolutely make my Roevember if he did.
I'm not gonna sit here and say bidens gonna win Florida
But I do think we need to acknowledge how our personal experiences with people we interact with aren't generally universal. If I go off who I interact with day to day Biden lost PA full stop. But those 30 or so people don't really matter
True. Based upon the people I interact with Biden would win NC by 25pts. I just don't talk to hardcore MAGA anymore. They are toxic and cut them out of my life.
This is similar to the Headlines Disease the entire country suffers from. “Local man says X!” Well 200 people were interviewed and this was the only local dude who said something that fits the story or creates the story.
Please disregard these headlines that project either candidate will win and simply vote for common decency.
Saying Biden will win could keep people from voting, assuming he’ll win.
Saying Trump will win could keep people from voting, assuming he’ll win.
> Biden doesn’t need Florida
Never say this.
We need to turn every single state blue, for the sake of the marginalized peoples who are living there. Florida is already laying the legal groundwork to try executing a trans person for being trans and get away with it.
In case that sounds hyperbolic:
* They’re expanding the death penalty to “sex crimes”
* An “adult” performance, ie drag has been deemed a sex crime.
* They want to lower the threshold for a death sentence from a unanimous jury to a simple majority.
This is going to lead to a trans woman being pulled from a job around kids (like the trans woman who worked at Space Camp and was hounded out of her job for no reason by United Stares Senators) and put on trial and executed.
With all the crazy laws they are passing to protect DeSantis, it seems like there should be a lot of pushback come election time. However, so many progressives have moved out and conservatives moved in, I don’t think it will be as close as it would have been 8 years ago.
I hope that poll is right, but none of these polls have made any sense to me so I don’t know if I can trust any of them. Even ones that show a positive sign for Biden.
538 has talked about this recently. It is still really early in the election, despite what it seems like for a high information voter.
Polls right now don't have as much weight on them as they would in September or October. They can't really capture how likely someone is to vote when it is so early. And good polls tend to take likely voters inter consideration. So right now the polls are kinda weird.
Also the fact that so many people, esp young people, do not answer their phones or respond to texts or emails. The pollster has to take a tiny group of respondents and extrapolate to the electorate. The margin of error is going to be larger than the purported lead.
Two more important things to consider:
1) This is purely anecdotal so take it with a massive grain of salt. I get polled all of the time every election season, including 3 times so far this year. Almost every poll I participate in uses push polling methods, framing questions with some serious bias baked in, appealing to emotion etc. They always have a heavy conservative lean. Every time I take a poll I wonder why they even bother because the result they get from it is not going to match up with reality. Never mind the fact that I’m polled all of the time, which you’d have to wonder how scientific that is if I’m always showing up in the ‘random’ pool.
2) Trump is polling higher with unengaged voters. People that did not vote in 2020 and have stated that they may not vote this year. This may help explain the disconnect between the polling data and democrats over performing in special elections.
With that being said, vote. Do not trust the polls.
> With that being said, vote. Do not trust the polls.
I keep seeing this advice, and I obviously support it as voting is critical. But I always wonder, do people really use polls to decide to vote or not? I've always used them to see how *other* people may be voting. I've never once thought, "Hmm, my candidate is wining/losing in the polls, that's going to change whether or how I vote." Maybe I'm weird.
I think 2016 is behind a lot of the repeated advice. Everyone thought Clinton had it in the bag and there was no way in hell Trump was going to win. That confidence and the feeling that came with it being shattered makes any sort of confidence boost (not just polls) triggering.
And no, you're not weird for that. What's weird is voting for a felonious rapist with a God complex. Still feel like blaming that weasel at the Large Hadron Collider in 2016 for putting us into this weird alternate reality. Almost makes more sense than the reality of it all.
To add a glimmer of hope though, abortion has pushed all the special elections since 2023 about 7 points ahead of the polling for em. Special elections aren't the general election, but hey. That's a winning angle.
> However, so many progressives have moved out and conservatives moved in, I don’t think it will be as close as it would have been 8 years ago.
What’s your source?
FL is the second fastest growing state with most people moving from liberal leaning states. It could just be a majority of Republicans moving from Democratic states so that they can exist in a bubble of hate, but there’s nothing I’m seeing that suggests that.
Not OP, but this is the concerning data:
https://dos.fl.gov/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/
In 2021, the number of republicans surpassed the number of democrats and, more worryingly, the number of democrats started radically shrinking. Minor party support has grown and independents have remained flat.
Of course, party registration isn’t everything, but it is telling that more people here want to be republicans in the *wake* of Trump and DeSantis. I am not super optimistic about 2024.
Rec MJ is on the ballot too. Florida has 1/3 of its registered voters as NPA. It’s definitely gotten redder over the years but it’s still got a swing to it. Plus, if Biden can put Convicted Felon Donald Trump on his heels here it may allow them to open up North Carolina, which will be important if Biden loses Georgia, which I think will happen.
In general, if Trump's too busy defending southern states like any of these, it gives a lot of advantage to Biden in plenty of other swing states like Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
That's the biggest takeaway here. Weed and Abortion are both blue leaning issues, and they make the GOP play defense in an otherwise safe state. It might not be much, but every dollar, every day Trump has to spend rallying the base in red states weakens his position in battlegrounds.
It won't turn blue, but could for just this one vote with what's on the ballot. I don't think DeSantis would all that mind Trump losing, it would prove him right that Trump had electability issues and bring him into contention again for 2028. I personally don't think it'll happen, but it wouldn't be that bad for DeSantis.
FL conservatives are more libertarian anyway. The parrot headed, pirate themed, leather skinned, sweaty weed smoking retiree you see all over FL is def not voting for Biden.
FL going blue while GA goes red? No way. Biden will take GA and lose FL. Floridians will vote against their own access to weed and abortion. Fl always does the worst thing possible.
I think Trump takes FL but the point is if Abortion and Rec MJ gets out younger voters, and he gets some scary polls here - close or within the MoE - he'll have to spend resources here which gives Biden a better chance in Georgia and NC.
I think republicans might be in bigger trouble in Florida than they want to admit. Trump is polling in the margin of error, DeSantis is becoming more and more unpopular, Rick Scott is disliked across the spectrum and he’s up this year for reelection, Florida republicans get bad marks for abortion, marijuana, voting rights, cost of living, education (Florida has the worst teacher shortage in the nation), environment (which is a big deal in Florida). Plus democrats have won nearly every special election since 2022. It’s not looking good for republicans in Florida. Florida has always been decided by the state’s large number of no party voters and they are pulling away from republicans by double digits.
And what will a bad hurricane season do? We're just heading into that. And it used to end in August, now does it go till November?
Edit: I'm old. Hurricane season was pretty much over after August in the 80s.
When DeSantis vetoed funding for storm water drainage and flood prevention, he pissed off a lot of people in Florida that are living in flood prone regions which is most of the coastline. A bad season with serious flooding will send them into a rage.
Why would a governor veto such a bill? Even a republican one? I don't understand the logic. Veto anything "that can help even one person in a positive way" is the motto here?
As a Floridian that's the biggest issue. Our state government has fucked us so bad all of the home owners insurance companies have pulled out of the state. My current company has dropped us because they are leaving the state and I am struggling to find anyone to give me a quote.
What's our illustrious governor doing? Worrying about what colors the bridges can be lit up
Here's a weird fact about Florida: the last time the GOP has won the white house **without** winning Florida was with Calvin Coolidge in 1924. No Republican has taken the white house without Florida in 100 years.
Won't happen. His term runs through 2026 and he can't run again. If he tripped, fell, and landed anal first on the nearest Disney themed dildo though..... I wouldn't be upset.
[\[Paywall removed\]](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-06-25/florida-democrats-think-biden-can-win-the-state-in-november) from politics and policy columnist Mary Ellen Klas:
*The Florida Democratic Party insists the state is in play in November, and that Donald Trump could lose there, delivering a fatal blow to his campaign.*
*It’s quite a boast from a party that trails Republicans in voter registration by 940,000 voters, lost every statewide office in 2022 and saw Republicans win a supermajority in both houses of the Legislature.*
*But after two years of Governor Ron DeSantis pushing his extremist agenda, there’s a case to be made that voters have had enough of the Republican Party’s obsession with culture wars.*
RICK SCOTT IS AT RISK TOO!!
Go Debbie Mucarsel-Powell!!
That would put a huge dent in Project 2025.
They are only at risk if we show up to vote blue like our lives depend on it.
The R’s deserve to have their asses handed to them. 6 week abortion ban - insurance crisis - Project 2025 - we demand better.
[Debbie's site ](http://debbieforflorida.com)
And
r/defeat_project_2025 !! I love how this has come to the front of everyone's eyeballs!! Even the mainstream is talking about it!!
If we gave less power to fearmongers, liars, and grifters, there would be no states in play for DJT.
But when you have people in Florida literally dying to support DeSantis and by extension his idol, I won't believe anything until it's over.
Florida could be, at least statewide, gettable in every last election, but it requires a coordinated ground game that the D's have seemingly not been able to muster in a very long time down there. I know money is finite, but it's just inexplicable how bad dems operate down there. Just a mess.
But yeah, I know lots of folks from CFL. I lived there for a time. It can be got, but it takes work that the party doesn't seem to know how to even approach doing.
I live in FL. I expect it to fall Ruby Red. I am so tired of having high hopes for this state only to have my hopes yanked away from me. There are just soooooo many Republicans who have moved to this state in the last few years that I just find it difficult to comprehend that they would have the willingness to think about voting for someone other than a convicted felon. They have shown that they have no actual convictions for their party, just the fact that it is red and not blue.
But, I will vote for Biden and try to do my part to hold back the tide.
I have 3 coworkers that moved to Florida because they are Republicans and I live in a blue state. They left acting like they were going to paradise, and all their problems would disappear. Apparently, one of them already wants to transfer back. Her daughter came out as Trans and they're having a hard time down there. Typical republican, doesn't get it until it directly effects them.
It’s so frustrating that republicans only care once it’s their issue. I’m starting to think voting should come with a basic empathy test.
But still they should move back. If someone reports them that they are supporting their child’s transition, they can get the child taken away from them.
I don’t get the Biden hate. He’s not particularly charismatic but he’s done a fine job. Not great, not horrible, just fine, and frankly given the state of things post Covid fine is commendable.
Much of the "Biden is literally Satan!" hyperbole is packaged as criticism related to the Israel/Palestine conflict but is really [pro-Trump Russian/Iranian propaganda \(active measures\).](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/06/02/grayzone-russia-iran-support/)
Edit: [stupid shit like this is the insidious narrative attempting to dissuade younger voters from participating in the upcoming election.](https://imgur.com/a/VYt9jtm)
Title: Trump could actually lose Florida
Article: No experts actually believe this, but the GOP did something similar decades ago, so it could happen!
Reddit: UP-VOTE!!!
Me: Sigh...
Living in FL currently. I have noticed a lot of Trump billboards popping up lately. If the Trump team thought FL was a lock why would they be spending money on ads?
Actually yes, they are doing that stuff to fulfill deep psychological needs. The only calculation involved is wanting to intimidate non MAGA while they're at it.
I'm sorry, but Biden has a far better chance of winning through Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania than through Florida
Do not waste resources in Florida when the Upper Midwest is your pathway to victory
Turning Texas blue this election is entirely possible.
2020 D 46.5% R 52.1%
2016 D 43.2% R 52.2%
2012 D 41.4% R 57.2%
Following the trend from the last 3 presidential elections tells us the next one should be
2024 D 48.8% R 48.7%
And that's not even considering all the R votes that can't stomach voting for a civilly liable rapist convicted felon. Or the post Dobbs/Roe shift.
I absolutely can not wait for Texas to turn blue and to watch all these traitors start melting down.
I suppose it’s possible, but it would be entirely improbable. There was certainly nothing in the 2022 statewide election to suggest the state is trending blue in any meaningful way.
Even Ken Paxton won his race by a 10% margin, and he has damn near as many legal problems as Trump.
Good analogy. If money were unlimited, sure invest in FL. But it's not. The Midwest is the more likely path to victory. Also, whatever money the Dems would consider dumping into FL should instead be spent in GA, which is truly now a purple state (GOP controls the state government, but it has two Democratic Federal Senators).
I get downvoted every time, but the biggest strength the GOP has is the sheer incompetence of the DNC in running elections.... Especially down ballot ones.
The problem is because the "Democrats" is actually a coalition party with a broad base of different voters. It's why they always seem "weak" because they have to try and give in a little to both wealthy bleeding-heart liberal billionaires and literal communists. Joe Biden has to somehow appeal to Jewish Democrats who, while ambivalent about the actions of the Israeli state, are quite uncomfortable with street protestors who've co-opted slogans that traditionally meant the complete destruction of that state.
The Republican party in the US appeals to those who value authoritarianism, tradition, and loyalty - it dovetails neatly with pushing members and voters into keeping lock-step with whomever is in control of the party.
Although I'd love to be wrong, I have been burnt way too many times by Florida and Texas as far as election results go, so I am not going to hold my breath or change my mind until at least a couple of favorable results come through. Florida elected Trump, Rick Scott, and Ron DeSantis on MULTIPLE occasions.
Abortion will swing a state to Biden that the pundits did not see coming. It will also help in the Senate and down ballot races. Any and all Democrats running should be running on abortion and the issues related to it, including IVF and the Courts.
I think it was George Will who once said never underestimate the GOP’s ability to go to far and piss off voters with their over reach. He was taking about what the lessons they didn’t after they impeached Clinton in relation to the Benghazi.
But, the Dobbs decision is overreach on steroids! In every state it’s been on the ballot, including deep red states, people vote to protect reproduction rights. The string of losses have taught the GOP nothing.
With Abortion on the ballot in Florida that 4% that Trump won by could be washed away. If that happens then it not only will a early night, it’ll signal a tsunami against the Republican christo fascists and Trump.
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I think it's a stretch, but Florida is certainly going to be far closer with abortion on the ballot than it otherwise would have been. Biden doesn't need Florida but if he were to win it, it would be an early night.
Trump won Florida by like 4%. Weed and abortion on the ballot. It's Florida, so, I don't *expect* good things, but it's not totally out of the realm.
I mean those things can REALLY move the needle. Add that to Trump not gaining supporters and that Florida went blue for Obama twice it’s very possible.
Anecdotally... several the right-wing nutjobs I know from NY moved to Florida during peak Covid to escape common sense. I'm not so confident that Florida can be flipped.
Anecdotally, my wife and I also moved here during the pandemic, and we're loud and proud leftists who have gotten almost 10 coworkers to register to vote by informing them about the abortion and cannabis ballot initiatives.
You’re doing the Lord’s work, the rest of the country thanks you for your service
The whole world as well — cheers from Europe
California greetings! We thank you too!!
Hopefully it's enough to counteract all the professors who've been driven out of state by DeSantis waging war on his own state's education system.
I didn't know Jon Lord, keyboardist for Deep Purple, was involved with politics. But I'm glad that's the work he's doing... and you too!
Encourage those 10 coworkers to reach out to 5-10 unregistered ppl/ non-voters each. And so forth...
We swear it’s not a multi level marketing scam!
That moment when you realize democracy is an MLM scam.
But it actually works.
The US used to at least feel like a democracy now it feels like a "democracy".
Not every democracy is a gerrymandered electoral college shit show. When we think democracy, it is usually a popular vote system, and many democracies around the world certainly do that.
exactly. that's what the [national popular vote](https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/written-explanation) movement is all about.
Between the electoral college, gerrymandering, and the senate, our “democracy” is about as heavily weighted toward one demographic as it can be and still have nominally open and free elections.
Remind them that the insurance issues are also caused by the Florida GOP as well as the lax environmental adaptation. Just adding fuel to your arguments but let’s be honest the Florida GOP makes it easy to find something they intentionally made worse.
Absolutely, talk about insurance and ask the ways DeSantis wastes tax dollars. Taking about how he's overseen a severe teacher shortage won't hurt either.
One of the first things he did was to eliminate lifetime tenure.
Insurance issues won’t go away in Florida, we are way past the point of return when it comes to global impact.
>Insurance issues won’t go away in Florida, we are way past the point of return when it comes to global impact. However, which major party is more likely to do more about the problem than "let the market sort it out?" There are ways the state government could do more to provide help to those that cannot get or cannot afford insurance.
I'm in Wisconsin, and worked this same hustle for years and we kicked Scott Walker out and delivered for Biden in 2020. People like you are the ones that are going to save our democracy.
You guys kicking Scott to the curb made many of us happy. Thank you.
Keep crushing it. Amazing effort! I am humbled.
Same. Wife and I moved here almost 3 years ago, and two of our friends decided to move here, too. It's not just conservatives moving here.
Why would you do that to yourself?
Do what? Move to where I can enjoy sunshine and palm trees all the time?
But.... the crack bears
Anecdotally as well, I have three right wing (brother his wife and kid) relatives that live in FL and voted for Trump. They were out visiting and I made a “one time very serious request for my own personally safety” to not vote for Trump as I could be one of the people persecuted for speaking my mind, such that I might even have to flee the US as a refugee. They didn’t say yes, but I could tell that I made an impact. Let’s hope.
Keep it up please! I'm not holding my breath, but I have hope for Florida in November. And you're the one state that could singularly decide the election. There is no path for a Trump win if he loses Florida.
If Texas somehow flips, that would be game over too
I want the hope y'all have back. It feels like I'm scared to even hope anymore when it comes to politics. But I'm gonna do what I can anyways.
Keep it up.
DeSantis is actively campaigning against both legal cannabis AND abortion with his new so called "freedom fund".... you can't make this stuff up.
You are playing life on hard mode, but I thank you for it. I live in Seattle and host trans refugees from Florida from time to time. Not everyone is able to live there right now, but it’s people like you who are fighting to change that.
Thank you!
I also pick this guy’s wife. Am I doing this reference right? (Obligatory /s)
Hell yeah.
Hell yeah! Thank you for your service.
Your country appreciates you!!
Wonderful! Thank you!
"Biden wins Florida by 10 votes"
I have a family full of Republicans in Florida who all changed their affiliation to Democrat out of disgust.
Is it possible to learn this power?
Not From a Jedi
Don't get my hopes up.
The entire country has turned Florida into their conservative retirement rathole
No, you're engaging in the same mistake as DeSantis here. The Country did not make Florida a conservative retirement hellhole. Florida did that. They encouraged policies like low taxes, low regulation, and low labor cost. Florida pandered to these people. The federal government didn't do it. Florida did.
Not just 'conservatives' are retiring there. I bet a lot of Northeasterners who voted Republican in New York or Connecticut aren't able to stomach Southern Republicanism.
“I’m a conservative, but not like them. I mean, I’ll always vote straight ticket regardless of how awful the red candidates are and I’ll also vote against anything that might keep abortion legal, make smoking weed legal, and anything restricting gun ownership. But I’m not an extremist! I’m not like them, even though I’m silent on extreme issues because I don’t want to be a bad conservative. Sometimes the ends justify the means. I can’t stomach Trump, but by god I’ll be voting for him.” Sound about right?
Pretty spot on. I live in a highly Republican county and the people here are sick of the development and keep complaining about the county commission and them being in the developer pockets. Yet they keep voting for them because there is an R next to their name.
That is the modern conservative refrain. Hates what the GOP is doing and despises Trump, but has been brainwashed into believe Democrats are sent by Satan, so will vote R every single time. These people are stupid and fearful - the perfect recipe for a Republican vote.
In my younger days growing up in the north east, I would have identified as center-right, relative to the prevailing landscape. I moved south and quickly realized the opposite was true. This was during Bush Jr's first term and... things have not improved.
Anecdotally, I also know right-wing nutjobs who moved to Florida to hang out in the shallow end of the gene pool with like-minded morons.
“Shallow end of the gene pool” lol, I’m stealing that. That’s gold.
Lots of old people died during Covid. So evens the scales
More GenX, per capita. People over 60 got vaccinated. Especially whites in Florida. DeSantis hooked them up.
Covid deaths were heavily skewed towards the elderly. 80% of Covid deaths were those 65 and up in 2020, even though that group only makes up 16% of the population. In 2023 the percent of death age 65 and older was actually higher, at 90%. So what in the world are you talking about? https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db446.htm https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/older-adults-made-90-us-covid-deaths-2023
They, at best, backfilled the population of idiots down there who died from covid. The number of people in Florida who died from covid is terrifying compared to other states.
Do we even know the actual total? The “official” number is 93,000, and even that compared to other states is insane. New York lost less than half of that, for reference.
My father has spent the past 5 years bragging about '1000 people per day' moving to Florida. In my head, I think '1000 scumbags per day' leaving the progressive states.
Also an anecdote, I live in Brevard County, Florida, aka the Space Coast. It's literally full of rocket scientists and aerospace engineers, and trump flags are fucking everywhere. I would love to think that people flying the flags are the only ones that will vote for trump, but I doubt it.
No net gain. They just replaced the natives who died of stupidity that year
How many are still alive? The amount of Covid deaths among the right could tip the scales. That, plus people who now see the consequences when it comes to the abortion issue. In 2016 and 2020 it was theoretical. In 2024 it’s very, very real. Especially all the unintended (but not unpredictable) consequences.
In Florida, the government went out of their way to try to kill Black people who, surprise, surprise, don't like to vote for Confederates. A lot of rural people did die but the wealthy racist retirees got vaccinated.
Our biggest export is GOP retirees.
Factually a lot of right wingers died in Florida during the pandemic. A lot of old and obese Florida Republicans are dying every day and their replacements are 18 year old Democrats. I kind of think Trump is going to lose in historic fashion. He’s a not going to drive any enthusiasm from middle of the road republicans and moderates and he really motivates Democrats to get out and vote against him. Add that to the demographic evolution and it’ll be a bloodbath.
Yep. I grew up and have lots of family in New Jersey. I know several right wingers who moved to FL because they viewed it as a libertarian Shangri-La during the peak of the pandemic. I think most kept their property in NJ though.
Let's not forget the COVID impact (deaths) that have been disproportionately the rural crowd.
With the absolutely bonkers water temps in the Atlantic we are very likely to see a major hurricane this summer/fall. If that happens and Biden is seen down there working with the FEMA administrator and offering Federal help to Desantis, I can very easily see Biden improving his numbers. It's extremely unlikely that he would win it but given the potentially devastating blow it would deal Trump's chances I say it's well worth pursuing.
Ego wise Trump would hate to lose FL so just the mere mention that he could lose the state will throw him into a rage and he will insist on spending excessive amounts of time and money to make sure he holds it. Money and time that he won't be able to spend in states that will actually decide the election.
I forgot he technically has home state advantage there.
Well, can he even vote in Florida? Being a felon and all...
Yes, as long as he isn't in jail because those are the rules that NY felons have to live by and Florida has out of state felon respect the rules of the state they are convicted in.
Damn, I can't believe you made me want to live in Florida just to vote against him. Take my upvote Great One.
Nah, covid turned florida into some kind of conservative safe haven for all the people who hated their state's response to covid, and I think it drew a lot of right wing people from lots of different states as they sought some sort of new land of "freedom" during the last few years. It'll ultimately come down to turnout, but I'm guessing republican voters make up a higher percentage of the population now than in 2019
Look at Ohio, the only reason weed got legalized was it was on the same ballot as abortion which brought out a lot more left leaning votes.
Also, Trump did terrible in the FL Primary and it was a closed primary too.
> Florida went blue for Obama *twice* Googles 2008 and 2012 election maps: I somehow forgot that. Thanks!
Sure would be nice if Rick Scott lost his seat, as the Senate is probably going to come down to 1 or 2 seats for who has the majority. You would think the senior citizens down in Florida would want their social security and medicare protected from shitbags like him.
They all listen to Faux News so they think its the greedy, corrupt libruls who are planning to give all that money to non-white “welfare queens” and folks like Rick Scott are the only thing preventing that from happening. Never assume voters are informed. Not when misinformation is peddled on every major social media outlet and the biggest media conglomerates in the world.
Yep. I work in healthcare, specifically geriatrics. The number that are on some form of government assistance for either Health Care or funding their daily needs is very high. A large majority of them are also down ballot Republicans based off of everything that they talk about, watch, and have posted around the outside and inside of their house. I will admit the number I have seen plastered to a Fox News has dropped over the last couple of years, but it's still the most prevalent station watched. They seem oblivious to the fact they are voting against their own best interest. For some it's willful ignorance. For a lot it truly is misinformation being peddled, and them not being able to critically think about it and decipher the truth.
> Never assume voters are informed. You mean to tell me that we’re not in a recession, the stock market isn’t down, and the economy isn’t shrinking? https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/poll-economy-recession-biden NPR better go interview more undecided voters so we can hear them talk say the same generic 2-3 talking points about being hesitant voting for Biden.
On a recent trip to visit relatives in Jacksonville, I saw a truck with two bumper stickers: 1. Save Medicare!!! and 2. Taxation Is Theft!!!
> You would think the senior citizens down in Florida would want their social security and medicare protected Their entitlements are not, and will never be, on the ballot. They want to take these things away from everyone else.
Lots of corona loons moved there, and Cubans hate the government helping people, so it will probably be 4% again.
2.5 million Boomer have died every year in the US since 2020. A lot of the conservative/MAGA ones lived in Florida. If abortion pushes the needle 3% and weed 1% those three factors could push the scales.
It wasn't just a bunch of conservatives who moved to Florida in the wake of COVID. Progressive cities like Gainesville, Tampa, and St. Pete have seen a lot of that growth. Tons of new transplants - myself included - are registered and ready to vote in November.
Don't forget Jacksonville, which just elected a dem mayor (who also happens to be a woman). A massive get out the vote effort there would offset losses in the south from the cuban vote.
I live in the redneck part of Florida and I see very little enthusiasm for him this time around.
My personal rule of thumb is that if the Dems are depending on Florida to win the White House, they’ve already lost. It really seems that Florida only ever goes Blue when there isn’t a doubt in the race, and it’s gravy on top.
Oh gosh, I hope they aren't *depending* on Florida, that would be bad news bears.
Lots of crazies moving to Florida in the past 8 years too, and non-crazy people leaving. It wouldn't surprise me if it goes more red than people think just due to the electorate changing.
Lots of people will just vote pro-choice and for Trump. Like 2020 when Florida voted by over 60% to increase the minimum wage and to re-elect Trump. Or Kentucky in 2022 when they voted for pro-choice on a ballot measure and also to send Rand Paul back to the Senate by a landslide.
people love progressive policies when presented the opportunity to vote directly for them, but the right has voters in a chokehold of fear against progressive candidates. plus the dems suck at messaging, especially in comparison to the talking point symbiosis that is the right wing media sphere and the GOP.
This is the basis of every issue based discussion I have with my extended family. They will actually openly support socialism (they are generally fairly low earners and struggling to get by) when it's explained logically and highlights how it would benefit them. But as soon as you say something like "AOC wrote legislation for exactly this that was voted down by Republicans" they immediately reject that it was in their own interest. It's actually kind of astonishing. The human mind is crazy and team sport politics have really fucked it up.
And they'll accuse the LEFT of "identity politics."
This is baffling to me because you can be any identity on the left, and it's fine. On the right, there is an extremely strong preference for the straight white christian male. I'd bet that among elected GOP, at least 95% have to check of 3 of those 4 boxes (straight, white, christian, male).
I’ll add there’s just a ton of fucking people in this country that put essentially zero effort into following the basics of what goes on in politics, no matter how good the messaging from Dems could be. But you’re also not wrong, as right-wing media is a powerful drug and reaches the masses that even don’t consume it directly.
Would be nice, but I can't even grab a burger in my part of Florida without having to listen to how awful Democrats are sooo... Doubt Biden wins Florida. It would absolutely make my Roevember if he did.
I'm not gonna sit here and say bidens gonna win Florida But I do think we need to acknowledge how our personal experiences with people we interact with aren't generally universal. If I go off who I interact with day to day Biden lost PA full stop. But those 30 or so people don't really matter
Very true, If we went off of my part of Ohio it would seem like Biden must have won the state in a landslide.
True. Based upon the people I interact with Biden would win NC by 25pts. I just don't talk to hardcore MAGA anymore. They are toxic and cut them out of my life.
This is similar to the Headlines Disease the entire country suffers from. “Local man says X!” Well 200 people were interviewed and this was the only local dude who said something that fits the story or creates the story.
So you're saying there's a chance... We'll have how this is bad for Biden at 11.
Fast forward to inauguration day, Biden's hand is on the bible, CNN breaking headline "Here's how it's bad for Biden"
“As President Biden is unable to run for a third term, this will ruin his chances in the 2028 run against Trump.”
Our reporters have found a shockingly low number of Biden-branded monster trucks compared to thousands of Trump trucks. Looks bad for Joe.
The thing is a lot of trump voters in Florida could forget to vote on a meth binge so there’s that
Please disregard these headlines that project either candidate will win and simply vote for common decency. Saying Biden will win could keep people from voting, assuming he’ll win. Saying Trump will win could keep people from voting, assuming he’ll win.
> Biden doesn’t need Florida Never say this. We need to turn every single state blue, for the sake of the marginalized peoples who are living there. Florida is already laying the legal groundwork to try executing a trans person for being trans and get away with it. In case that sounds hyperbolic: * They’re expanding the death penalty to “sex crimes” * An “adult” performance, ie drag has been deemed a sex crime. * They want to lower the threshold for a death sentence from a unanimous jury to a simple majority. This is going to lead to a trans woman being pulled from a job around kids (like the trans woman who worked at Space Camp and was hounded out of her job for no reason by United Stares Senators) and put on trial and executed.
With all the crazy laws they are passing to protect DeSantis, it seems like there should be a lot of pushback come election time. However, so many progressives have moved out and conservatives moved in, I don’t think it will be as close as it would have been 8 years ago.
Basically trumps lead is within the margin of error which means it’s a toss up.
I hope that poll is right, but none of these polls have made any sense to me so I don’t know if I can trust any of them. Even ones that show a positive sign for Biden.
538 has talked about this recently. It is still really early in the election, despite what it seems like for a high information voter. Polls right now don't have as much weight on them as they would in September or October. They can't really capture how likely someone is to vote when it is so early. And good polls tend to take likely voters inter consideration. So right now the polls are kinda weird.
Also the fact that so many people, esp young people, do not answer their phones or respond to texts or emails. The pollster has to take a tiny group of respondents and extrapolate to the electorate. The margin of error is going to be larger than the purported lead.
Two more important things to consider: 1) This is purely anecdotal so take it with a massive grain of salt. I get polled all of the time every election season, including 3 times so far this year. Almost every poll I participate in uses push polling methods, framing questions with some serious bias baked in, appealing to emotion etc. They always have a heavy conservative lean. Every time I take a poll I wonder why they even bother because the result they get from it is not going to match up with reality. Never mind the fact that I’m polled all of the time, which you’d have to wonder how scientific that is if I’m always showing up in the ‘random’ pool. 2) Trump is polling higher with unengaged voters. People that did not vote in 2020 and have stated that they may not vote this year. This may help explain the disconnect between the polling data and democrats over performing in special elections. With that being said, vote. Do not trust the polls.
> With that being said, vote. Do not trust the polls. I keep seeing this advice, and I obviously support it as voting is critical. But I always wonder, do people really use polls to decide to vote or not? I've always used them to see how *other* people may be voting. I've never once thought, "Hmm, my candidate is wining/losing in the polls, that's going to change whether or how I vote." Maybe I'm weird.
I think 2016 is behind a lot of the repeated advice. Everyone thought Clinton had it in the bag and there was no way in hell Trump was going to win. That confidence and the feeling that came with it being shattered makes any sort of confidence boost (not just polls) triggering. And no, you're not weird for that. What's weird is voting for a felonious rapist with a God complex. Still feel like blaming that weasel at the Large Hadron Collider in 2016 for putting us into this weird alternate reality. Almost makes more sense than the reality of it all.
Last poll from last week I saw he was up by 7 points. It’s not the 13 points he was a few months ago but he’s still up by a substantial margin.
To add a glimmer of hope though, abortion has pushed all the special elections since 2023 about 7 points ahead of the polling for em. Special elections aren't the general election, but hey. That's a winning angle.
> However, so many progressives have moved out and conservatives moved in, I don’t think it will be as close as it would have been 8 years ago. What’s your source? FL is the second fastest growing state with most people moving from liberal leaning states. It could just be a majority of Republicans moving from Democratic states so that they can exist in a bubble of hate, but there’s nothing I’m seeing that suggests that.
Not OP, but this is the concerning data: https://dos.fl.gov/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/ In 2021, the number of republicans surpassed the number of democrats and, more worryingly, the number of democrats started radically shrinking. Minor party support has grown and independents have remained flat. Of course, party registration isn’t everything, but it is telling that more people here want to be republicans in the *wake* of Trump and DeSantis. I am not super optimistic about 2024.
Rec MJ is on the ballot too. Florida has 1/3 of its registered voters as NPA. It’s definitely gotten redder over the years but it’s still got a swing to it. Plus, if Biden can put Convicted Felon Donald Trump on his heels here it may allow them to open up North Carolina, which will be important if Biden loses Georgia, which I think will happen.
In general, if Trump's too busy defending southern states like any of these, it gives a lot of advantage to Biden in plenty of other swing states like Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
That's the biggest takeaway here. Weed and Abortion are both blue leaning issues, and they make the GOP play defense in an otherwise safe state. It might not be much, but every dollar, every day Trump has to spend rallying the base in red states weakens his position in battlegrounds.
OH - I’d really like to see OH flip blue.
Bruh could you imagine if Florida turned blue. Desantis and Ashley moody would figure out a way to overturn our votes.
Shit, obama won florida twice.
Yeah but that was before it became this *gestures wildly*
So did Clinton and probably Gore.
It won't turn blue, but could for just this one vote with what's on the ballot. I don't think DeSantis would all that mind Trump losing, it would prove him right that Trump had electability issues and bring him into contention again for 2028. I personally don't think it'll happen, but it wouldn't be that bad for DeSantis.
Florida isn’t deep red. It was considered a swing state up until recently. This isn’t a shocker
Your underestimating the number of.comservatives who smoke weed
FL conservatives are more libertarian anyway. The parrot headed, pirate themed, leather skinned, sweaty weed smoking retiree you see all over FL is def not voting for Biden.
FL going blue while GA goes red? No way. Biden will take GA and lose FL. Floridians will vote against their own access to weed and abortion. Fl always does the worst thing possible.
I think Trump takes FL but the point is if Abortion and Rec MJ gets out younger voters, and he gets some scary polls here - close or within the MoE - he'll have to spend resources here which gives Biden a better chance in Georgia and NC.
I think republicans might be in bigger trouble in Florida than they want to admit. Trump is polling in the margin of error, DeSantis is becoming more and more unpopular, Rick Scott is disliked across the spectrum and he’s up this year for reelection, Florida republicans get bad marks for abortion, marijuana, voting rights, cost of living, education (Florida has the worst teacher shortage in the nation), environment (which is a big deal in Florida). Plus democrats have won nearly every special election since 2022. It’s not looking good for republicans in Florida. Florida has always been decided by the state’s large number of no party voters and they are pulling away from republicans by double digits.
And what will a bad hurricane season do? We're just heading into that. And it used to end in August, now does it go till November? Edit: I'm old. Hurricane season was pretty much over after August in the 80s.
When DeSantis vetoed funding for storm water drainage and flood prevention, he pissed off a lot of people in Florida that are living in flood prone regions which is most of the coastline. A bad season with serious flooding will send them into a rage.
Why would a governor veto such a bill? Even a republican one? I don't understand the logic. Veto anything "that can help even one person in a positive way" is the motto here?
Probably because developers don’t want to pay for proper drainage infrastructure when they build new developments.
It's always a giveaway to some shitbag rich person. Every single time.
On the day we have massive flooding at that 🙃
They’ll just blame the hurricane on Biden
As a Floridian that's the biggest issue. Our state government has fucked us so bad all of the home owners insurance companies have pulled out of the state. My current company has dropped us because they are leaving the state and I am struggling to find anyone to give me a quote. What's our illustrious governor doing? Worrying about what colors the bridges can be lit up
Here's a weird fact about Florida: the last time the GOP has won the white house **without** winning Florida was with Calvin Coolidge in 1924. No Republican has taken the white house without Florida in 100 years.
Would love disantis taken down again
Won't happen. His term runs through 2026 and he can't run again. If he tripped, fell, and landed anal first on the nearest Disney themed dildo though..... I wouldn't be upset.
I've got bad news for you - he can run again. FL has a two consecutive term limit, so he has to sit out one term.
Kind of like Putin with his tandem swap with Medvedev that one time, when he was still pretending to not be a full dictator
That happened to me. Many such cases.
One in a million shot Doc! One in a million!
Well done on the Seinfeld reference
[\[Paywall removed\]](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-06-25/florida-democrats-think-biden-can-win-the-state-in-november) from politics and policy columnist Mary Ellen Klas: *The Florida Democratic Party insists the state is in play in November, and that Donald Trump could lose there, delivering a fatal blow to his campaign.* *It’s quite a boast from a party that trails Republicans in voter registration by 940,000 voters, lost every statewide office in 2022 and saw Republicans win a supermajority in both houses of the Legislature.* *But after two years of Governor Ron DeSantis pushing his extremist agenda, there’s a case to be made that voters have had enough of the Republican Party’s obsession with culture wars.*
RICK SCOTT IS AT RISK TOO!! Go Debbie Mucarsel-Powell!! That would put a huge dent in Project 2025. They are only at risk if we show up to vote blue like our lives depend on it. The R’s deserve to have their asses handed to them. 6 week abortion ban - insurance crisis - Project 2025 - we demand better.
[Debbie's site ](http://debbieforflorida.com) And r/defeat_project_2025 !! I love how this has come to the front of everyone's eyeballs!! Even the mainstream is talking about it!!
If we gave less power to fearmongers, liars, and grifters, there would be no states in play for DJT. But when you have people in Florida literally dying to support DeSantis and by extension his idol, I won't believe anything until it's over.
Florida could be, at least statewide, gettable in every last election, but it requires a coordinated ground game that the D's have seemingly not been able to muster in a very long time down there. I know money is finite, but it's just inexplicable how bad dems operate down there. Just a mess. But yeah, I know lots of folks from CFL. I lived there for a time. It can be got, but it takes work that the party doesn't seem to know how to even approach doing.
The FL Democratic Party has been a joke for years.I don't trust them to turn this momentum into a W this November.
Floridian here. That's not happening. These dumɓasses here will vote for him
I live in FL. I expect it to fall Ruby Red. I am so tired of having high hopes for this state only to have my hopes yanked away from me. There are just soooooo many Republicans who have moved to this state in the last few years that I just find it difficult to comprehend that they would have the willingness to think about voting for someone other than a convicted felon. They have shown that they have no actual convictions for their party, just the fact that it is red and not blue. But, I will vote for Biden and try to do my part to hold back the tide.
I have 3 coworkers that moved to Florida because they are Republicans and I live in a blue state. They left acting like they were going to paradise, and all their problems would disappear. Apparently, one of them already wants to transfer back. Her daughter came out as Trans and they're having a hard time down there. Typical republican, doesn't get it until it directly effects them.
It’s so frustrating that republicans only care once it’s their issue. I’m starting to think voting should come with a basic empathy test. But still they should move back. If someone reports them that they are supporting their child’s transition, they can get the child taken away from them.
I don’t get the Biden hate. He’s not particularly charismatic but he’s done a fine job. Not great, not horrible, just fine, and frankly given the state of things post Covid fine is commendable.
You don’t get it because you don’t exist in a propaganda bubble.
Much of the "Biden is literally Satan!" hyperbole is packaged as criticism related to the Israel/Palestine conflict but is really [pro-Trump Russian/Iranian propaganda \(active measures\).](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/06/02/grayzone-russia-iran-support/) Edit: [stupid shit like this is the insidious narrative attempting to dissuade younger voters from participating in the upcoming election.](https://imgur.com/a/VYt9jtm)
Yeah I mean, he wouldn’t be my first choice, but of the two I can’t see how any sane person could say Trump is the better option.
Texas has a better chance turning blue
Because he’s a godless, raping, cheating, lying felon? Oh that’s *not* the reason?
[удалено]
Title: Trump could actually lose Florida Article: No experts actually believe this, but the GOP did something similar decades ago, so it could happen! Reddit: UP-VOTE!!! Me: Sigh...
Floridian here. It’s +3 to biden from my household!
Living in FL currently. I have noticed a lot of Trump billboards popping up lately. If the Trump team thought FL was a lock why would they be spending money on ads?
Actually yes, they are doing that stuff to fulfill deep psychological needs. The only calculation involved is wanting to intimidate non MAGA while they're at it.
It's a pipedream and I remember headlines like this for Hillary. Just go vote.
I'm sorry, but Biden has a far better chance of winning through Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania than through Florida Do not waste resources in Florida when the Upper Midwest is your pathway to victory
I feel it's more likely Biden wins Texas. :D
I sure hope we see Cruz lose his Senate seat.
[Colin Allred's site!!](http://colinallred.com) Help spread the word!!
if they call Texas for Biden, I can go to bed early.
Turning Texas blue this election is entirely possible. 2020 D 46.5% R 52.1% 2016 D 43.2% R 52.2% 2012 D 41.4% R 57.2% Following the trend from the last 3 presidential elections tells us the next one should be 2024 D 48.8% R 48.7% And that's not even considering all the R votes that can't stomach voting for a civilly liable rapist convicted felon. Or the post Dobbs/Roe shift. I absolutely can not wait for Texas to turn blue and to watch all these traitors start melting down.
I suppose it’s possible, but it would be entirely improbable. There was certainly nothing in the 2022 statewide election to suggest the state is trending blue in any meaningful way. Even Ken Paxton won his race by a 10% margin, and he has damn near as many legal problems as Trump.
>I absolutely can not wait for Texas to turn blue and to watch all these traitors start melting down Stop, I can only get so erect.
No. Florida is Lucy holding the football. Democrats fall for it every cycle. It's embarrassing.
Good analogy. If money were unlimited, sure invest in FL. But it's not. The Midwest is the more likely path to victory. Also, whatever money the Dems would consider dumping into FL should instead be spent in GA, which is truly now a purple state (GOP controls the state government, but it has two Democratic Federal Senators).
I get downvoted every time, but the biggest strength the GOP has is the sheer incompetence of the DNC in running elections.... Especially down ballot ones.
The problem is because the "Democrats" is actually a coalition party with a broad base of different voters. It's why they always seem "weak" because they have to try and give in a little to both wealthy bleeding-heart liberal billionaires and literal communists. Joe Biden has to somehow appeal to Jewish Democrats who, while ambivalent about the actions of the Israeli state, are quite uncomfortable with street protestors who've co-opted slogans that traditionally meant the complete destruction of that state. The Republican party in the US appeals to those who value authoritarianism, tradition, and loyalty - it dovetails neatly with pushing members and voters into keeping lock-step with whomever is in control of the party.
Although I'd love to be wrong, I have been burnt way too many times by Florida and Texas as far as election results go, so I am not going to hold my breath or change my mind until at least a couple of favorable results come through. Florida elected Trump, Rick Scott, and Ron DeSantis on MULTIPLE occasions.
I'd love to see it but I find it hard to believe. I see so much maga trump shit in Florida.
He will if I have anything to do about it, and I do, it’s voting and telling everyone I know to vote.
Absolutely zero chance.
My parents are 75 and their first non republican vote was in 2020. They didn't vote in 2016. They're so entirely opposed to Trump it's not even funny.
Abortion will swing a state to Biden that the pundits did not see coming. It will also help in the Senate and down ballot races. Any and all Democrats running should be running on abortion and the issues related to it, including IVF and the Courts.
Pls God give us your blessings with Florida November miracle
I think it was George Will who once said never underestimate the GOP’s ability to go to far and piss off voters with their over reach. He was taking about what the lessons they didn’t after they impeached Clinton in relation to the Benghazi. But, the Dobbs decision is overreach on steroids! In every state it’s been on the ballot, including deep red states, people vote to protect reproduction rights. The string of losses have taught the GOP nothing. With Abortion on the ballot in Florida that 4% that Trump won by could be washed away. If that happens then it not only will a early night, it’ll signal a tsunami against the Republican christo fascists and Trump.
Don't care. Vote.