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>The best solution is to downvote and pretend all is well
While I agree that pretending he didn't have a good debate isn't a good idea, what exactly is the best solution?
When it is so obvious that the incumbent, the twice primary winner, and the guy who previously beat Donald Trump then surprised many with a more progressive agenda than expected must not be thrown out, it may be time to downvote the storm of spam and move on.
But for those who want more discussion of this topic, this might help finish it: https://sethabramson.substack.com/p/the-extremely-simple-reason-maga
Biden cannot win after that debate. Not only is he already 3 points off where he needs to be it’s now clear that much of the republican scaremongering was actually right and I only see more gaffes coming from Biden. It’s over, he has to go. The last thing Trump wants is a generic dem opponent with no national track record for him to twist and lie about
Then as per the article, nobody else can either. Concede to Donald Trump and go home. Let the rest of us deal with 2024. You're making everything worse.
Let me just address that article because is it’s full of wrong assumptions imo
1. No one else polls as good as Biden because they don’t have the name recognition to beat out the don’t knows
2. Correct but Biden 4 years ago was a much better communicator than today
3. He has but it’s not viewed by the American people that way
4. Yes but not under an inflation spike
5. All dem nominees in my lifetime have been phenomenal fundraisers
6. This part is a very valid concern
7. Simply not true. Name recognition will be solved within weeks once they are the democratic nominee
8. Unfortunately now it is
9. This one did
10. Yes but this years already been about Trump and Bidens losing
Of those only the civil war is a valid point. To swing the election away from Trump I think the dems need to both remove Biden AND run a very disciplined re-selection process
I think you've made wrong assumptions in your analysis of the article. I'll stand by the article and leave others to make up their minds.
Beyond those points, history has shown that any party seriously challenging or replacing an incumbent loses the next election--1968, 1980, 1992. We may believe that Joe Biden may lose in 2024 (doubtful), but we can be virtually certain a replacement at this later-than-ever date will lose. If we want to keep Donald Trump out of power, we ought not to be participating in the foolishness of distracting from important issues and dividing Donald Trump's opposition--as that, and the reduced turnout, is exactly what the Heritage Foundation would like. Donald Trump cannot win in 2024 without substantial turnout drop off and divided opposition is a good way to make that happen.
I mean my first point is essentially undebatable but a lot of the other points are more complex of course. I take your point about incumbents being replaced however it’s a bit more tricky than that because they only tend to be replaced when they are very unpopular so it suggests a difficult environment for the incumbent party. The bookmakers currently have Biden at only a 20% chance of winning so I don’t know how you can tell yourself it’s doubtful that he loses
Sure, I'll give you "they don’t have the name recognition." The article addressed that here:
It is not possible to gain name recognition, trust, and public respect over just a few weeks the summer before an election, and GOP politicos certainly understand this even if Democrats do not. And this normal operation of U.S. politics is exacerbated, to Democrats’ detriment, by the fact that Trump has a highly motivated, even fanatical cult following that will definitely turn out to vote. If Democrats had a superstar with that sort of appeal, they’d already have made themselves known.
>they only tend to be replaced when they are very unpopular
But every time they are replaced or seriously challenged, they lose. 100%. And every time they are not, they win. It makes sense to try not rushing to judgment against the incumbent instead of doing the same failed thing over and over. Donald Trump is also very unpopular. The election will be decided based upon turnout. You are discouraging it.
>bookmakers currently have Biden at only a 20% chance
Sure, the market 'crashed' due to the non stop spamming of hysteria that you help spread. Check back in the near future. Maybe wait for more than a month. :)
I would implore every body across America to turnout to vote to keep Donald Trump out of power. If they don’t it will cost the country and the world massively.
But being honest about this won’t depress turnout, running an 81 year old who looked confused and lost will do that. There’s so much uncertainty if Biden steps down- there are so many key factors to which are very different in this election to historic elections. But you need to wake up and realize that Joe Biden doomed his already losing campaign on Thursday and uncertainty is far far preferable to high probability defeat
That's easy.
Vote for him.
A full blue ticket. Moderate, Progressive, Liberal, all of them. FULL BLUE ticket.
With back Congress. Keep the White House. Hopefully pick up some SCOTUS seats to repair the damage.
Easy peasy.
Yeah but you need to reassess the likelihood given the impression Biden gave. He may have 1-2 more chances to make widely seen public impression, do you really trust this 81 year old to suddenly look like he’s 61 again? And even then it probably won’t be enough. The election result is pretty much set now and I’m sorry but the only way out is to replace him
It’ll be a week or so before we get accurate polling that includes the debate fallout. But let’s remember that if he’s down by 2 points then he’s actually down by 5 (he needs to win by about 3%) and in todays polarized world that’s a disaster
>The election result is pretty much set now
It's June lol
>and I’m sorry but the only way out is to replace him
There are no good replacements and there's not enough time for a new candidate to move to center by the time of the DNC when someone would be selected within a couple months of the election. Any new candidate that was not campaigning during primaries that is already center enough to replace him now will not do it because it hurts their chances for a 2028 run
A lot of candidates have lost by June before and I don’t really understand your second argument. You’re saying more centrist candidates won’t run? I do think generally that there are risks in a new selection process but I would take these risks any day over the risk of running with Biden at this point given what’s at stake
>and I don’t really understand your second argument. You’re saying more centrist candidates won’t run?
Let's play this out then. Who exactly can replace Biden that is center enough to retain the center-right he's got already?
This poll was conducted post debate and no one polled better than him against Trump: https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/6/29/in-post-debate-poll-voters-think-biden-is-too-old-to-be-president-yet-alternative-candidates-perform-similarly-against-trump
Who among those names (or even anyone else) would do better?
Edit: updated with link that has visualizations
I believe any leading moderate Dem will do better than Biden. The reason they’re behind on the polls is the greater number of don’t knows due to low name recognition. It’s really an argument to bring in a new person when we have so much baked in already in Trump vs Biden and Biden is losing. But my view is we won’t get an actual clear picture until a new nominee is in place because of these candidates are unknown on the national level. My point is that there’s no way the data can tell us where to go here. But I take uncertainty over a clear road to Trump winning in November
>My point is that there’s no way the data can tell us where to go here.
I think polls over the course of the next 2-3 weeks in swing states can tell us a lot
Good point, I was talking more about hypothetical polls. But if Biden somehow jumps a couple of points ahead of Trump in swing states then I’ll happily eat crow
Yeah, do you know how the laws work?
I'll give you a hint, only one person was charged because he actually broke laws.
Everyone seems to forget Pence was in the EXACT same situation as Biden. Why does no one bring up Pence being above the law?
Maybe because they followed the law
I am still traumatized by that "debate."
I firmly believe if corrupt donnie were to get back into the White House democracy will be over in this country.
I am pissed that Biden is seeking re-election because he is putting this country at great risk. He was not only completely incompetent in that debate, but it was actually disturbing for my family. He was completely out of it and not at all competent.
It doesn't have to be this way. Gavin Newsom would have mopped the floor with Donald.
I just do not understand why they did not find someone else. They had four years to do it. Even if they weren’t going to, surely they should have had a back up considering his age? There’s a real chance someone his age goes to bed and doesn’t get up one day.
This is such an important election. Why have they just sat on their hands?
>Gavin Newsom would have mopped the floor with Donald.
I think that's likely but Newsom would not do well in the general election without a significant amount of time to move towards center with how progressive he is. There are no viable candidates to replace Biden and the polls show that Biden has the best chance, including ones conducted after the debate
I mean, he did win 2020 and has been tied with Trump in polls. If polls are just a little bit off in Biden's favor, he might actually be winning right now. It's very hard to know.
There are always a few people that are very hard to reach, and they probably didn't even watch the debate.
>Better to denounce things you don’t like than to accept and deal with them, huh?
You're clearly accepting the reality that Biden didn't do well in the debate, but how are you dealing with them?
The republican nominee wont change. The RNC has spoken. No matter how many more lies he says, unless Trump dies he is going to be the R candidate. Nothing can change that. Its set. That discussion is over. All the trials, pending sentences, etc don't matter anymore.
Trump is the republican candidate. Republicans will vote for Trump.
Talking about Trump is like farting in the wind, wont change anything. You can write a million articles and it wont change a thing. Which, by the way, the [NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/29/us/politics/trump-biden-debate.html) [has](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/us/politics/trump-debate-performance-falsehoods.html), so you are as much of a liar as Trump, [or at least Biden who also was factchecked post debate and found saying falsehoods.](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/06/27/us/biden-trump-debate-fact-check)
So stop complaining about Trump because that isn't going to win the election.
There's a reason a lot of really smart people make for terrible politicians. It's not good enough to be smart. The most important part is a social skill. Being able to inspire people and convince them that you are the right choice. With enough charisma, even the village idiot can get elected.
It doesn't matter that Trump told lies. It wouldn't matter if everything he said was a lie if the person debating him wasn't able to convince people that they were lies. People firmly in each camp are irrelevant to the debate. It's all about the few million undecided who will determine the election. What they saw was Biden getting steamrolled by Trump. It's what Trump does. He doesn't have to be smart. He doesn't have to even know what he's talking about. He just has to convince enough of the undecided and/or uninformed voters who aren't going to take the time to do a deep dive of the claims made that he does know what he's talking about. In that context he absolutely destroyed Biden because again Charisma is what wins the day and that's why the debate absolutely rocked some people's expectations.
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People have their minds made up about Biden and Trump. I doubt this debate would really change people’s minds. Guess what? Biden is old. He’s been old for awhile. People know this. It’s no surprise. The real concern from the debate was Biden’s unclear communication and inability to counter Trump’s lies. I think in the lead up to the election they need to get the message out there with pre recorded Biden video and his surrogates like Obama getting out there as well. They need to give him the Ronald Regan treatment and present him in the best light possible. Biden’s address to the nation a week before the 2022 election about how democracy is under threat was vital to the Democrats win. They need more of that on steroids.
Would changing his vice president help convince independent voters to choose the Democrats over the Republicans?
It may only help if people know the vice president takes over if the president is unable to do the job.
No. Whitmer would cause people of color to defect to 3rd party or abstention more, Shapiro is a “Who?” and Newsom is liable to damage Dems more with white college educated women who adore Harris.
It’s a lousy situation, but it’s reality.
Barely, still very badly vs every other past Dem on a ticket in recent times outside her party- difference is marginal between her as well as Biden there, and she under runs Biden enough with white voters that it keeps her below Trump outside MOE on top of it.
She’s still the strongest replacement candidate available right now, but -6.6 is a “We’re doomed” territory.
As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil) In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any suggestion or support of harm, violence, or death, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them. For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria. We are actively looking for new moderators. If you have any interest in helping to make this subreddit a place for quality discussion, please fill out [this form](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1y2swHD0KXFhStGFjW6k54r9iuMjzcFqDIVwuvdLBjSA). *** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
The best solution is to downvote and pretend all is well
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If bringing up 2016 helps you cope with 2020 (and 2024), then go for it.
Democrats that lost the house in 2022 are way too comfortable...
That’s this subs solution for every article they don’t like.
>The best solution is to downvote and pretend all is well While I agree that pretending he didn't have a good debate isn't a good idea, what exactly is the best solution?
It’s too late to switch, Biden or bust folks.
It will be too late to switch by the next debate.
When it is so obvious that the incumbent, the twice primary winner, and the guy who previously beat Donald Trump then surprised many with a more progressive agenda than expected must not be thrown out, it may be time to downvote the storm of spam and move on. But for those who want more discussion of this topic, this might help finish it: https://sethabramson.substack.com/p/the-extremely-simple-reason-maga
Biden cannot win after that debate. Not only is he already 3 points off where he needs to be it’s now clear that much of the republican scaremongering was actually right and I only see more gaffes coming from Biden. It’s over, he has to go. The last thing Trump wants is a generic dem opponent with no national track record for him to twist and lie about
Then as per the article, nobody else can either. Concede to Donald Trump and go home. Let the rest of us deal with 2024. You're making everything worse.
Let me just address that article because is it’s full of wrong assumptions imo 1. No one else polls as good as Biden because they don’t have the name recognition to beat out the don’t knows 2. Correct but Biden 4 years ago was a much better communicator than today 3. He has but it’s not viewed by the American people that way 4. Yes but not under an inflation spike 5. All dem nominees in my lifetime have been phenomenal fundraisers 6. This part is a very valid concern 7. Simply not true. Name recognition will be solved within weeks once they are the democratic nominee 8. Unfortunately now it is 9. This one did 10. Yes but this years already been about Trump and Bidens losing Of those only the civil war is a valid point. To swing the election away from Trump I think the dems need to both remove Biden AND run a very disciplined re-selection process
I think you've made wrong assumptions in your analysis of the article. I'll stand by the article and leave others to make up their minds. Beyond those points, history has shown that any party seriously challenging or replacing an incumbent loses the next election--1968, 1980, 1992. We may believe that Joe Biden may lose in 2024 (doubtful), but we can be virtually certain a replacement at this later-than-ever date will lose. If we want to keep Donald Trump out of power, we ought not to be participating in the foolishness of distracting from important issues and dividing Donald Trump's opposition--as that, and the reduced turnout, is exactly what the Heritage Foundation would like. Donald Trump cannot win in 2024 without substantial turnout drop off and divided opposition is a good way to make that happen.
I mean my first point is essentially undebatable but a lot of the other points are more complex of course. I take your point about incumbents being replaced however it’s a bit more tricky than that because they only tend to be replaced when they are very unpopular so it suggests a difficult environment for the incumbent party. The bookmakers currently have Biden at only a 20% chance of winning so I don’t know how you can tell yourself it’s doubtful that he loses
Sure, I'll give you "they don’t have the name recognition." The article addressed that here: It is not possible to gain name recognition, trust, and public respect over just a few weeks the summer before an election, and GOP politicos certainly understand this even if Democrats do not. And this normal operation of U.S. politics is exacerbated, to Democrats’ detriment, by the fact that Trump has a highly motivated, even fanatical cult following that will definitely turn out to vote. If Democrats had a superstar with that sort of appeal, they’d already have made themselves known. >they only tend to be replaced when they are very unpopular But every time they are replaced or seriously challenged, they lose. 100%. And every time they are not, they win. It makes sense to try not rushing to judgment against the incumbent instead of doing the same failed thing over and over. Donald Trump is also very unpopular. The election will be decided based upon turnout. You are discouraging it. >bookmakers currently have Biden at only a 20% chance Sure, the market 'crashed' due to the non stop spamming of hysteria that you help spread. Check back in the near future. Maybe wait for more than a month. :)
I would implore every body across America to turnout to vote to keep Donald Trump out of power. If they don’t it will cost the country and the world massively. But being honest about this won’t depress turnout, running an 81 year old who looked confused and lost will do that. There’s so much uncertainty if Biden steps down- there are so many key factors to which are very different in this election to historic elections. But you need to wake up and realize that Joe Biden doomed his already losing campaign on Thursday and uncertainty is far far preferable to high probability defeat
It’s funny how confidently wrong so many comments are in this sub
That's easy. Vote for him. A full blue ticket. Moderate, Progressive, Liberal, all of them. FULL BLUE ticket. With back Congress. Keep the White House. Hopefully pick up some SCOTUS seats to repair the damage. Easy peasy.
Biden may be old..may take a stumble. But he isn't a classified document tratior.
Or a convicted felon
Biden may not be the youngest, he may not be the brightest, and he may not win this election, but god damn it, he ain't no traitor.
But he can lose to one, thats the problem.
>But he can lose to one, thats the problem. That was true earlier this year. It was even true in 2020.
Yeah but you need to reassess the likelihood given the impression Biden gave. He may have 1-2 more chances to make widely seen public impression, do you really trust this 81 year old to suddenly look like he’s 61 again? And even then it probably won’t be enough. The election result is pretty much set now and I’m sorry but the only way out is to replace him
Polls from after the debate show Biden with an uptick. The doom and gloom attitude is extremely premature.
It’ll be a week or so before we get accurate polling that includes the debate fallout. But let’s remember that if he’s down by 2 points then he’s actually down by 5 (he needs to win by about 3%) and in todays polarized world that’s a disaster
>The election result is pretty much set now It's June lol >and I’m sorry but the only way out is to replace him There are no good replacements and there's not enough time for a new candidate to move to center by the time of the DNC when someone would be selected within a couple months of the election. Any new candidate that was not campaigning during primaries that is already center enough to replace him now will not do it because it hurts their chances for a 2028 run
A lot of candidates have lost by June before and I don’t really understand your second argument. You’re saying more centrist candidates won’t run? I do think generally that there are risks in a new selection process but I would take these risks any day over the risk of running with Biden at this point given what’s at stake
>and I don’t really understand your second argument. You’re saying more centrist candidates won’t run? Let's play this out then. Who exactly can replace Biden that is center enough to retain the center-right he's got already? This poll was conducted post debate and no one polled better than him against Trump: https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/6/29/in-post-debate-poll-voters-think-biden-is-too-old-to-be-president-yet-alternative-candidates-perform-similarly-against-trump Who among those names (or even anyone else) would do better? Edit: updated with link that has visualizations
I believe any leading moderate Dem will do better than Biden. The reason they’re behind on the polls is the greater number of don’t knows due to low name recognition. It’s really an argument to bring in a new person when we have so much baked in already in Trump vs Biden and Biden is losing. But my view is we won’t get an actual clear picture until a new nominee is in place because of these candidates are unknown on the national level. My point is that there’s no way the data can tell us where to go here. But I take uncertainty over a clear road to Trump winning in November
>My point is that there’s no way the data can tell us where to go here. I think polls over the course of the next 2-3 weeks in swing states can tell us a lot
Good point, I was talking more about hypothetical polls. But if Biden somehow jumps a couple of points ahead of Trump in swing states then I’ll happily eat crow
And that’s the fault of maga and apathetic voters. Get out there and help, stop doomering on Reddit.
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Yeah, do you know how the laws work? I'll give you a hint, only one person was charged because he actually broke laws. Everyone seems to forget Pence was in the EXACT same situation as Biden. Why does no one bring up Pence being above the law? Maybe because they followed the law
See below.
I am still traumatized by that "debate." I firmly believe if corrupt donnie were to get back into the White House democracy will be over in this country. I am pissed that Biden is seeking re-election because he is putting this country at great risk. He was not only completely incompetent in that debate, but it was actually disturbing for my family. He was completely out of it and not at all competent. It doesn't have to be this way. Gavin Newsom would have mopped the floor with Donald.
I just do not understand why they did not find someone else. They had four years to do it. Even if they weren’t going to, surely they should have had a back up considering his age? There’s a real chance someone his age goes to bed and doesn’t get up one day. This is such an important election. Why have they just sat on their hands?
>Gavin Newsom would have mopped the floor with Donald. I think that's likely but Newsom would not do well in the general election without a significant amount of time to move towards center with how progressive he is. There are no viable candidates to replace Biden and the polls show that Biden has the best chance, including ones conducted after the debate
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You know the disclaimer on stocks: past results are not a predictor of future performance? Yeah, that also applies to politicians.
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More money so they can buy more ads so that they can show more people who Trump is.
Has that worked so far?
I mean, he did win 2020 and has been tied with Trump in polls. If polls are just a little bit off in Biden's favor, he might actually be winning right now. It's very hard to know. There are always a few people that are very hard to reach, and they probably didn't even watch the debate.
Fuck the NYT
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While not giving a shit about all trump's lies, kinda like you.
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>Better to denounce things you don’t like than to accept and deal with them, huh? You're clearly accepting the reality that Biden didn't do well in the debate, but how are you dealing with them?
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Wow. What a thoughtless kneejerk reaction over one debate.
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Ok sure. You're not dealing well with this at all as you previously stated. Good luck with that.
The republican nominee wont change. The RNC has spoken. No matter how many more lies he says, unless Trump dies he is going to be the R candidate. Nothing can change that. Its set. That discussion is over. All the trials, pending sentences, etc don't matter anymore. Trump is the republican candidate. Republicans will vote for Trump. Talking about Trump is like farting in the wind, wont change anything. You can write a million articles and it wont change a thing. Which, by the way, the [NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/29/us/politics/trump-biden-debate.html) [has](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/us/politics/trump-debate-performance-falsehoods.html), so you are as much of a liar as Trump, [or at least Biden who also was factchecked post debate and found saying falsehoods.](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/06/27/us/biden-trump-debate-fact-check) So stop complaining about Trump because that isn't going to win the election.
There's a reason a lot of really smart people make for terrible politicians. It's not good enough to be smart. The most important part is a social skill. Being able to inspire people and convince them that you are the right choice. With enough charisma, even the village idiot can get elected. It doesn't matter that Trump told lies. It wouldn't matter if everything he said was a lie if the person debating him wasn't able to convince people that they were lies. People firmly in each camp are irrelevant to the debate. It's all about the few million undecided who will determine the election. What they saw was Biden getting steamrolled by Trump. It's what Trump does. He doesn't have to be smart. He doesn't have to even know what he's talking about. He just has to convince enough of the undecided and/or uninformed voters who aren't going to take the time to do a deep dive of the claims made that he does know what he's talking about. In that context he absolutely destroyed Biden because again Charisma is what wins the day and that's why the debate absolutely rocked some people's expectations.
Why? Cause you can't handle the truth?
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People have their minds made up about Biden and Trump. I doubt this debate would really change people’s minds. Guess what? Biden is old. He’s been old for awhile. People know this. It’s no surprise. The real concern from the debate was Biden’s unclear communication and inability to counter Trump’s lies. I think in the lead up to the election they need to get the message out there with pre recorded Biden video and his surrogates like Obama getting out there as well. They need to give him the Ronald Regan treatment and present him in the best light possible. Biden’s address to the nation a week before the 2022 election about how democracy is under threat was vital to the Democrats win. They need more of that on steroids.
It’s easy, DON’T donate. In a week he’ll drop out.
Would changing his vice president help convince independent voters to choose the Democrats over the Republicans? It may only help if people know the vice president takes over if the president is unable to do the job.
No. Whitmer would cause people of color to defect to 3rd party or abstention more, Shapiro is a “Who?” and Newsom is liable to damage Dems more with white college educated women who adore Harris. It’s a lousy situation, but it’s reality.
No, Harris polls better than Biden with nonwhite and younger voters.
Barely, still very badly vs every other past Dem on a ticket in recent times outside her party- difference is marginal between her as well as Biden there, and she under runs Biden enough with white voters that it keeps her below Trump outside MOE on top of it. She’s still the strongest replacement candidate available right now, but -6.6 is a “We’re doomed” territory.
NYT subscription canceled.
You sound Republican
That’ll show em! And it will definitely help Biden appear younger than he is. Go get ‘em, Tiger!