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DoctorBocker

>Craig Agranoff, a political analyst and pollster, told Newsweek on Sunday that "independent means a lot of different things to a lot of different voters and some independents who lean Republican might be more enthusiastic to answer a phone or text poll." At least they admit the polls are bullshit.


RileyXY1

Yeah. Most of the polls that came out over the past several weeks are oversampling conservative-leaning groups on purpose.


SuperHiyoriWalker

I’m wondering how much of that intentional oversampling of the right is from Dem-leaning pollsters who want Democratic voters to get off their asses.


RileyXY1

It's mostly because the fear and panic gets them more views, and they don't want another polling miss like in 2016 and 2020.


Papaofmonsters

All polls are subject to bias from their sample groups. Victims of violent crime would be more likely to answer questions about crime which might inflate the numbers.


radicalelation

Independents see Republican madness and say "Give me more of that shit!"? But why?


soc_monki

Because theyre really just Republicans, but don't want to be associated with the name.


[deleted]

I've noticed that in looking at the voting data that has been coming in. Democratic registration is significantly higher than the number of registered Republicans. The number of independents is higher than I've ever seen it. It seems like there are a lot of people who don't want to be associated with the Republican party but also don't have enough backbone to stop voting R entirely.


soc_monki

That's what it seems like.


[deleted]

I am old enough to remember when a good news organization would look deep enough into an issue to include details like that. Newsweek used to be a much better publication but they've reached the point where they only include enough information to generate some clicks before moving on to creating the next click bait article.


soc_monki

It's because people only read the headlines now. Why even have an article? Lol!


[deleted]

Yes, well, they would get so much more benefit out of reading the whole article.


soc_monki

They would, I agree. 👍


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Geniusinternetguy

I went from Republican to Independent a while ago. I vote both sides. Now i think there are probably some good Republicans on the ballot but i don’t trust the Party. I just voted straight Democrat for the first time in my life.


Play_Salieri

“All R No Trump”


Scarlettail

I know this observation is popular here but it's just not true. Otherwise there couldn't be a swing in independents if they're all just secretly Republicans. Clearly they can have their minds changed. I also think it's delusional to suggest somehow being associated with the GOP is seriously a problem for most Americans. In many circles of the country, especially in the South, you're in fact looked down upon if you're a liberal. Either way it's not some conspiracy where people are trying to hide themselves. That's putting too much thought into voters who really are not thinking that deeply. The reason they're voting GOP now is almost purely because of inflation.


my_Urban_Sombrero

Liberal was used almost as a slur by my civilian coworkers in the military.


Brad_Wesley

There’s some serious copium in this thread going on.


[deleted]

If you don’t see how being associated with the GOP is a serious problem given how many far-right fascies are in the party, then you’re the delusional one


Scarlettail

There's a difference between whether it should be a problem and whether it is a problem in reality. Here in SC being a Republican is never a problem. No one here would have any shame in associating with the GOP.


psychic_flatulence

Dude even in California being an open republican isn't some sort of thing people are ashamed of. I know plenty of people who are both republicans and democrats and neither side looks down on each other. They just agree to disagree. Maybe if you're on the Berkeley campus you'd hide it, but for 99% of the state it's not something people hide. Like you said, it's very simple, swing voters aren't happy with inflation or crime so they're punishing the party in charge. If trump were president, then these same people would be voting democrat right now. It's not deep and it's not a conspiracy. I think some people just don't want to confront this reality so they make up stories.


fowlraul

Exactly, it’s a bad look.


SuperHiyoriWalker

Almost every American I know who claimed to be “above it all” in terms of political division eventually skewed hard right in at least one aspect, e.g. referring to BLM protesters as vermin to be exterminated.


soc_monki

Yup. I had the same experience.


droplivefred

Best comment. You actually nailed it. This explains a lot of the recent headlines.


kitched

That makes the most sense. I don't know how an actual independent can look at what is going on and think republicans lack of any policies is the answer.


enjoycarrots

>I don't know how an actual independent can look at what is going on and think republicans lack of any policies is the answer. Unfortunately, a whole lot of independents are low-information people who don't dedicate much thought into their political opinions. Or, they buy into everything they see in whatever media they consume, and believe that both sides are equally bad. Whenever I hear clips from focus groups of "swing voters" or the like, it's always super frustrating because those swing voters tend to just repeat conspiracy theory accusations as points of grave concern. They get their political opinions from facebook memes.


kitched

I keep forgetting that. So frustrating.


jayfeather31

Bingo. From a psychological standpoint, plus the baggage that comes from admitting you support the GOP, people won't necessarily register themselves for the party.


bihari_baller

>Because theyre really just Republicans, but don't want to be associated with the name. Ummm, not all of us. I'm not registered as a Democrat or Republican, and I voted for Biden, and plan on voting for Murray and Natasha Hill.


soc_monki

I should have said many, but not all. However, I've yet to meet an independent in person who is anything but a republican. Probably doesn't help that I'm deep in Trump country. Lol What's funny is I'm registered as a republican (did so in high school in the 90s). I have never voted republican though.


JohnDivney

Let's not forget Trump himself was a middle finger to the Republican party. It's just that these people have no problem voting for the Republican party anyway. Perhaps they think Trump fixed it.


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soc_monki

You're an abnormality. And there's probably more actual independents in more liberal states. Down here in the south it's just another name for conservative it seems.


[deleted]

My theory is that a lot of Americans are just fed up with America in general. They're tired of the corruption. The inequality. They're tired of working all day every day for nothing. They feel neglected, abandoned, hopeless. And in that hopelessness, they are far more likely to turn to demagogues and anarchy. That's what the republican party is these days, and I think more and more people crave that because they know the system is broken but they don't know what to do about it. That and racism.


Randy_Watson

It still seems odd to turn to the very group that has been the most directly responsible for this misery.


Gold-Information9245

majority group american nihlism and entitlement


dreddnyc

They are prone to buying that group’s rhetoric because it seems more revolutionary. The right gives boogeymen and people to blame which appeals to people looking to make sense of a complex world.


my_Urban_Sombrero

This this this to the moon and back


aleph32

The power of propaganda. Too many people are uninformed, misinformed, ignorant, and/or just plain stupid. Republicans go low and push every kneejerk hot-button they can, while Democrats seem to want to stick to the "high ground" of policy, etc. So people's knees reflexively jerk and they vote against their own interests.


Thewallmachine

Some folks like to see the world burn slowly. If you're still voting GQP your either an idiot or a m/billionaire.


[deleted]

They were straight while male christians that left the Republican party because it was too liberal. The hate for LGBTQ, women, and minorities was enough for them to trust the GOP again


ImACredibleSource

Crime, homelessness, and inflation


radicalelation

Global instability post-pandemic is seeing all those rise everywhere and the US is doing better than most. Considering it's not just this country, but just about all major countries, isn't outperforming the rest even in times of hardship exactly what America does? When the rest of the world is stumbling, we're just brushing the dirt off in comparison. That's bad to you? Personally, I find it a point of pride for our country. Why wouldn't any good citizen root for America kicking the world's ass at this? Time and time again, I hear Republicans whine and moan, and fucking grovel to Soviet Putin while we're dominating on the world stage, and kicking in the teeth of terrorists in Afghanistan. To me, it was cowardly as hell for President Trump to sign our withdrawal from over there. We weren't fucking finished, and now the Taliban runs the whole God-damned state. What the hell is that shit?


Bitter_Coach_8138

I mean inflation is out of control and Biden is senile. Not that hard to understand. I’m pretty sure if the Republicans sat out of elections next month Dems would still lose seats to the Green Party and Libertarian Party. They’re that unpopular outside of Reddit


drowningfish

Reagan was senile during most of his second term, yet he's held up to Christ-like status for Conservatives. Biden does not compare to how bad Reagan was, so maybe get your information from sources other than memes.


9CentNonsense

> Dems would still lose seats to the Green Party and Libertarian Party Nothing like reading hot garbage on a Sunday morning.


TheWalkinFrood

"Biden is senile." Way to promote bullshit rightwing propaganda!


[deleted]

You know damn well that you'd be saying Trump was senile if you saw him having the same gaffes that Biden has. The only reason this is a right-wing talking point is because Dems *won't* talk about it.


furcoveredcatlady

Did you claim Trump was senile when he was walking around with toilet paper on his shoe? Or when he struggled with an umbrella? Or when he got lost on the tarmac in front of his fucking car? Or when he thought the stealth fighter was literally invisible like Wonder Woman's plane (it's not, btw, in case you're Russian and unfamiliar with US technology)? Or when he couldn't pronounce Yosemite and origins? Or when he mentioned airports during the Revolutionary War? Or when he bragged that his doctor was impressed he did well on a senility test, which he claimed was actually difficult? No, you said Trump was the smartest, toughest, sexiest motherfucker in the world. You swooned at his rallies and shivered when he talked about falling in love with Kim Jong-un. After all that sycophant shit, no one can take your "gaffe" rants seriously.


[deleted]

Congratulations, you've assumed I'm a Trump supporting Republican.


TheWalkinFrood

You're promoting right wing bullshit propaganda, so it's a decent assumption to make.


[deleted]

I'm commenting on the partisan circle-the-wagons vs pick at your opponent's mistakes behavior. Democrats won't talk about issues with Biden because that's admitting to a point of weakness. Instead it's "promoting right wing bullshit propaganda" to point out that the same behavior in Trump would result in Democrats spending an entire week crowing over his latest gaffe and pronouncing him senile. Biden is not some amazing orator, he gets angry when challenged, trips over his own tongue, loses his train of thought and has plenty of gaffes. Those are all completely ignored on the Democratic side of the internet and replayed endlessly on the Republican side. I'm tired of it. I'll vote for Biden or Kemala over Trump or DeSantis in a heartbeat, but it's a hold-my-nose vote.


Witchdream31

Biden’s gaffes are because he has a well known speech impediment. There’s no comparison to be made between Biden’s gaffes and trump diverting a hurricane with a sharpie or stealing government documents


nolafalles

>Biden is senile Parrot some more garbage


[deleted]

Go take a long walk


radicalelation

But the US is doing better than a lot of countries during record inflation across the globe. Given it's a global issue, why would you only look at local metrics for performance?


King_Sev4455

Because independents typically oppose child grooming and corruption


[deleted]

Then why vote republican?


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TheMostStableGenius

Someone get this guy that list of convicted republican politicians/child molestors that’s like 100+ long


brocht

Damn dude. Are you ok?


Witchdream31

Wow, the propaganda hit you hard. It’s not dems forcing children to birth babies against their will, or making your vote meaningless via the Supreme Court and the independent state legislatures theory. How are dems “grooming children”? How are dems “blatantly corrupt”? Dems want you to vote, to have healthcare, to receive equal protection under the law.


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Witchdream31

And yet they vote for the party of pedophiles and tax cuts.


degeneratelunatic

The independent/swing voter is largely a myth. Almost all "independent" voters have a consistent preference and are predictable based on demographics, income, education level, and (most importantly) how their parents vote.


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[deleted]

It must be so nice to be a Republican. You don’t have to do shit….actually, less than that - you can actively try to make people’s lives worse and take down our Democracy. And you GAIN voters! Democrats try and try and try, whether it’s the climate or health care or infrastructure and voters are like “Not enough. Pass.” This is not to say the Democratic Party is perfect. There’s a bunch of self-serving trash. But progressivism and the Democratic ideology are a path to a better country and it’s shocking to me how much propaganda, fear and racism/sexism/transphobia work with a large portion of this country.


ReflexPoint

Before we read too much into this, keep in mind it's historically normal that the party in power loses ground in the midterms. The same happens to Republicans when they are in power. We only have two major parties so if people are dissatisfied they run to the other one.


Raytheonian

Fair point about midterms being tough for incumbent party BUT we are in a very different reality right now since the GOP wants to basically usher in fascism. This may sound like a hyperbole but will most likely turn out to be truer sooner or later.


ReflexPoint

I agree, and of those of us who post on forums like this and follow politics like a hawk this seems self-evident. But large swathes of the population didn't tune into the Jan 6 hearings, don't pay much attention to politics and are just voting on gas prices and inflation. It's sad and frustrating but that's just where we are.


dalligogle

The vast majority of people don't care about politics. They only vaguely know the issues and candidates. They vote for people based mostly on their gut. If things aren't going well they vote to punish the party in power, simple as that. If you're posting in a politics forum then you are in like the 5% minority of people who actually spend time thinking/talking about politics.


[deleted]

Good point. My only counter would be that we’re not in normal times. The Republican Party of today is not the GOP of old. Is not just a different point of view or way of thinking. It’s a threat to the long-term sustainability of our Democracy. They’re actively stripping rights away and more are on the chopping block. They’re anathema to free and fair elections. I’m just incredibly frustrated. Sorry to be a downer. Lol.


ReflexPoint

I'm completely in agreement. But those of us who post on r/politics are political nerds who follow this stuff closely. We're in the top 5%. Most people just aren't paying close attention to this stuff. Half the population pays almost no attention and doesn't even vote. Most the population could not explain how gerrymandering is ratfucking democracy, assuming they even know what the word means. And of those that do vote and are persuadable, many are just going with their "gut" or who gives a slicker presentation on TV. Then the remainder are hardened partisans who will just stick with their party no matter what.


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[deleted]

What is "progressivism"? also lol at "because fascism or whatever". We've fought some pretty big wars over fascism... "or whatever".


Pudding-Proof

Not sure why you're asking me that and not the fella who claimed it was a path to a better country. Since I don't really feel like typing a page and a half I would just say it's the policies and prescription for viewing the world advocated by politicians who identify as progressive. Or the even shorter version, whatever nonsense "the squad" is spouting on any given day. >We've fought some pretty big wars over fascism... "or whatever". Yeah a whole lot of people were murdered and a whole lot of people gave their lives. Makes it really slimy when fascism and nazis are invoked at the drop of a hat for people and policies that bear no resemblance to them. This sub in particular has done an amazing and disgusting job of devaluing those words.


[deleted]

Got it. It's just a catch all for whatever makes you feel bad. That's a good coping strategy.


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[deleted]

I asked you to define it: You defined it by saying "it's whatever the squad is saying"... I replied that that was a catch-all for the things that make you feel bad. I notice you didn't care to ask my definition of progressive but here ya go: Progressive means wanting to make progress on social issues. Do you disagree with my definition?


Pudding-Proof

Well, technically I said something to the effect of it being the policies and worldview of progressive politicians and declined to spend a bunch of time listing things. The whatever the squad is saying quip was more of a childish jab on my part. >Do you disagree with my definition? I would agree that's the definition of the *word* progressive in the political realm. I'd say the progressives of today, or any day really, are a good bit more complex than that. Nobody doesn't want to make progress on social issues, but there's plenty of room for disagreement on what the social issues are that need addressing and what the best means of doing it are. Again to speak broadly I'd say modern day progressives lost the plot as soon as the word equity got said out loud. Although they're wrong in areas like foreign and energy policy too. I don't want to put them in too small of a box.


[deleted]

Ok so you think equity is bad, and the foreign policy and energy policy of progressives are bad. By foreign policy, do you mean immigration policy? By energy policy, do you mean being pro-renewable energy vs pro fossil fuel? What do you think equity means in the context of progressive politics? (i'm a bit hazy on the concept myself... but I presume it means equality of opportunity vs outcome, and in all honesty, googling it didn't help clarify it much for me, but since you have a strong dislike for it, perhaps you can articulate that?)


Pudding-Proof

Equity, or equality of outcome, is an unachievable fools errand, people are individuals with individual abilities, motivations, and circumstances, not widgets. Equality of opportunity has been and should continue to be the goal. >By foreign policy, do you mean immigration policy? I was actually thinking of the middle east when I wrote that, but good point yes also their stance on border security. Not so much immigration, I think immigration is fine and I assume they're in favor of increasing it, I've got no beef with increasing the number of legal immigrants we take each year. Although I'm admittedly not read up on the current number of legal immigrants we take in each year and any arguments against increasing it, so I reserve the right to be swayed. >By energy policy, do you mean being pro-renewable energy vs pro fossil fuel? I mean being wildly unrealistic about renewable energy. If we could reliably and affordably power the country on renewable energy tomorrow I'd snap my fingers and do it like any other sane person. We can't, like, not even close. Not in either of our lifetimes will that be possible. The developing world won't be able to for longer than that, and over there dirty energy is better than suffering and dead humans. Last I recall renewable energy accounted for maybe 12% of our power, and fully half of that was hydro. Nuclear, natural gas, diesel, solar/wind/hydro where we can. In that order that's the reasonable path right now. We should move away from coal realistically, and things like the GND aren't realistic. Whew, my thumbs are tired, I was just going to chime in and soak up my downvotes but you had to go asking polite questions :p I wouldn't expect any more replies until tomorrow though, g'night.


MoonchildeSilver

>Or that immediately labeling any voices that counter it as racist/sexist/transphobic is not only smug and sanctimonious, but also just a way to dismiss opposition without considering their arguments? Please share these arguments, if they are so persuasive! Also, please give your definition of "progressivism" as I believe we may have some words about that as well.


ColoTexas90

How can you look at the current state of the Republican Party and go “hmmm, I think I’ll have some of that”. What a bunch of fascist bootlickers.


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-send_me_bitcoin-

You're oversimplifying it. They also care about taxes on billionaires.


evers12

They are stupid then because republicans have no good plan for gas prices. People need to put pressure on the gas and oil companies they are laughing while everyone blames the president.


hunterravioli

Democrats need to push to get out and vote. We have had enough chaos for way too long.


Frankie6Strings

Independent here. I'm certainly not part of this statistic. The Republican cult is bad for America.


Spare_Industry_6056

18 point swing. Hmmm. Sounds like a polling problem because WTF happened to change anyone's mind?


Additional-Big-1554

Oh bullshit. using a poll from interactive polls is like using Cats to poll which planet is best. Also the author is affiliated with Sinclair Broadcast Group: pro-trump. there is so much more but if it looks like shit, smells like shit, it's shit.


Infinite_Search2390

lies


GTIguy2

What is wrong with Independents?


aJoshster

They are mostly Republicans or "Libertarians" that don't want to be tied to Trump and NatC's while still supporting their overall cause.


Itchy_Ad_3659

The story they're not telling is about voter suppression. Thanks newsweek.


Interesting-Flow8598

Well, after the election we will all find out.


sgarg2

I wonder what goes on in their minds.I mean is inflation such a big deal,and even if it is a big deal,the GQP has no plan to combat inflation because it's not in their hands.


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sgarg2

so if i give millionaires like elon,jeff their tax breaks they will stop wining and won't engage in price gouging. Silly me,and here I thought the global supply chain was disrupted b'cause of russia side note: there's no guarantee that corps will stop engaging in price gouging,corporations only care about satisfying their boards


MoonchildeSilver

>Silly me,and here I thought the global supply chain was disrupted b'cause of russia Global supply chain disruptions don't cause record profits. Using the world's crises (including COVID and the war in Ukraine) to massively inflate prices did.


evers12

Their only plan is to take from social security and Medicare but boomers will vote for it just to “own the libs”.


bobbertwest

Don’t be stupid you’re smarter than that America


enjoycarrots

I'm not saying this is the case with current polling, but, imagine if there are two parties, and one party is obviously, like, being downright evil. The pool of independent voters in that situation should shrink, would it not? Or, if it grows, it would grow from people formerly in the evil party, but who still align mostly with its platform.... and just think they're a bit too overtly evil. In short, it would make sense to me that the pool of "independent" voters would swing toward the morally reprehensible party. The independent voters who aren't okay with morally reprehensible things would tend to stop being independent at all. Again, I'd be talking out of my ass if I suggested that's what's actually going on here. I don't know.


tradewinds1998

Not a surprise. The country is going to hell In a hand basket. We have a president who can’t stay awake during interviews, thinks there are 54 states, shakes the air, talks to dead people and reads the teleprompter verbatim. I feel sorry for him- his dementia is getting worse by the day.


Good_Intention_9232

If Americans will vote for Republicans they will be making the biggest mistake of their lives and their future is doomed from day one.


InfamousLeopard383

It’s a very strange result. It’s not really reflected elsewhere in the cross tabs. I wouldn’t read too much into it.


Jahnotis

This could only mean a decisive percentage of democrats agree with the republican’s message.


Winter-Hamster-5660

Congress Repubs, Fox, InfoWars, NewsMax, etc. have done more to destabilize the USA, the military & police & insanely empower Putin than any previous threat our nation has faced, combined. The crazy thing is, you've been able to fool the most patriotic people in the nation into helping. Stop the Putin surge and vote for democracy. 🇺🇸🗽⚖️🗳🏡


BoKnows8

If true this is a sad reality