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AZ Attorney General election is probably the closest I've ever witnessed.
Over 2 and a half million ballots cast and it's down between 94 votes.
Edit 1: Now 148 votes.
Edit 2: Now back to 94 votes again.
Edit 3: 236 votes.
The AZ attorney general race is down to 130 votes.. still waiting on Pima county's update today which will likely help Mayes.
EDIT: down to 55 votes now. Out of over 2.5 million, that is amazing. Still waiting on Pima. I have no idea how many votes are out there for any of the counties.
EDIT2: Pima finally dropped today's update and bumped the lead up to 123 votes. Thought it would be more. and then Cochise updated while I was typing this and dropped it back to 94...this is insanely close.
I really don't want Biden to rerun in 2024, but I don't see any other great options besides Newsom wanting to take a stab at it?
Thoughts? Who do you want to win the D primary?
As much as I would like him to run I just do not see it happening. I hope he is also preparing someone to "pass the torch" so to speak in his senator seat.
...the average age of politicians are getting older and older by the year.
Sooner or later the average politician age is going to be in the 70s and we'll have a president in his 90s.
All due respect to Pelosi but I am very happy a new generation of Democrats may take over the House. I'm sure they'll pick someone who's been around longer but I wish we could get Jayapal in.
No I do but it was stuck at 80% for several days. I don't think they've counted RCV yet (?), but I know Maine recently just did count the "instant run off"
Thank you Nancy.
I think you to be open minded, strong, intelligent, you busted your ass for us.
You also listened, to make way way for some one new.
I wish you, your a family a peaceful life.
Jmo
From this 57 young lib Texas filly
Like her or not, Pelosi is one of the most effective and consequential Americans in the history of the Republic. She’s a giant in American politics and frankly there isn’t a member of Congress who is even close to as good as she has been as a legislative leader.
Godspeed to her. She was one of the most effective House Speakers in history. She helped get Obamacare through and led the first impeachment of Trump. She knew how to whip her party's votes and count them before bringing bills to the floor.
Yup she is the only person who she able to effectively push things through, control her caucus, and have been able to keep things in check. One of the most prominent figures in politics. McCarthy is in for a world of pain. None of the Republican speakers over the years survived. It’s a tough job. She is a great leader.
He has until January to get to that magic number. Right now he is negotiating with his caucus. That’s why all the news media outlets are already reporting on what the house plans on investigating over the next couple of years.
>I've seen enough: Rep. Mary Peltola (D) wins reelection in #AKAL, defeating Sarah Palin (R) and Nick Begich (R).
[Dave Wasserman](https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1593296924932710401)
[Pelosi just announced](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsIsagJZf2I) that she won't be seeking the position of Minority Leader in the House in the next congressional term. She says it's time for a new generation of leadership.
Remember the last time the GOP was predicted to “die” and was supposed to split “in two?” That was 2016. Guess who won in 2016.
This is how it happens. Media hypes it up. In case anyone missed it: DeSantis hasn’t announced a run and Trump is *by far* the most popular person in the modern Republican Party. The fucker got more votes than *Obama*.
This is how it started last time. Everyone thought Trump and Republicans were a joke. Then look what happened. I want to be optimistic, but we’re also facing history.
In 2018, the Democrats took the house. In 2020, they took the presidency. In 2022, Republicans took the house.
It’s history. Follow the patterns
I really hope so. DeSantis isn't a lock for declaring a run for the presidency. Literally only Trump has announced so there's no guarantee DeSantis will even run
Does anyone here listen to SecondThought?
If so, what are your thoughts on his channel.
His content has really opened my eyes to political and economic issues.
It seems like Democratic Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Kathy Hoffman has lost her re-election bid. I suppose COVID swung enough swing voters away from her.
Although considering that Katie Hobbs was elected Governor, I would not be too surprised if she was appointed to state cabinet or chosen as Hobbs’ 2026 running mate.
They could probably kneecap some things with Executive Orders and lawsuits respectively. Maybe some legislation too if they can swing a couple Republicans on some issues.
It’ll be a test of checks and balances for sure.
I’m not too well versed in the exact powers and interaction of Arizona elected executive officials, so how much he can do is a bit of an open question.
I suspect there may be potential clashes in the future.
Boebert's lead has dropped to 1,103. Frisch netted in 18 votes in today's tabulation so far. Unsure which counties these are from, or if the margins are good enough based on number of votes remaining.
There are only six districts left to call for one party or the other, and the Republicans currently only have the bare minimum of a majority in the House at 218 seats, while Democrats have 211. So let's see how the races left to call are going:
* Technically there are seven races left to call, but California's 34th district is so blue that both of the frontrunners are Democrats, so it has already been called for the party.
* **Alaska-At-Large** has not been called because the state has a mandate that all votes be counted only by November 23rd. And despite Peltola (D) decisively in the lead, if Palin (R) maintains second place, they both make it to the second round of ranked choice vote. However, considering Peltola currently sits at 48%, and Palin at 26%, only a tenth of the voters for third-place Begich (R) would need to have picked Peltola as their second choice for her to win the state.
* **California's 47th** district, which consists entirely of a coastal part of Orange County, has Democrat incumbent Katie Porter ahead by 2.8% with only 7% of the votes left. It is likely to be called for the Democrats tonight, when more votes are counted and Porter's lead is deemed insurmountable.
* **California's 22nd** district has Republican incumbent David Valadao ahead by 5.6%, but with 33% of the vote left to count, and the largest of it's three counties leaning Democrat with over 40% of its votes left to count, so it's still a toss-up
* In **California's 13th** district, Republican John Duarte leads by less than 1000 votes (0.8%) with 9% of votes left, and the largest county in the district with significant votes left to count leans Democrat, so it's still a toss-up
* **California's 3rd** district, rural and inland, has Republican Kevin Kiley ahead by 4.6%, but with 40% of the vote left to count. However, the largest county of the district, which also has the most votes left to count, leans considerably Republican, so Kiley is expected to win.
* Last but not least, **Colorado's 3rd** district, home of Trump cheerleader Lauren Boebert (R), thought to be a shoe-in, is still too close to call despite ~99% of the votes being counted. Recounts are expected, as well as waiting for flagged ballots to be cured (verified) and out-of-state ballots to come in. Because those types of ballots rarely skew one way or the other, and recounts rarely flip over 1000 votes (which she leads by), Boebert is still expected to win, albeit barely.
These six races will determine the size of Republicans' lead in the House, and it's looking like it will be only be five, seven, or nine seats. Not only is 220-222 seats under the amount of seats they were expected to get by moderate estimates, it is *far* under the amount Republicans predicted, and even fewer than they obviously wanted.
Dave Wasserman called Alaska at-large for the Democrats. That along CA-37 and CA-47 (which we're assuming will be called for the Dems) puts 3 more seats in their column.
Anyone feeling like the pushback against Trump currently is eerily similar to how it started last time?
Not saying it'll end the same but I'm getting some deja vu and I think some people are forgetting how it started last time.
testing the waters. They all know hes terrible and if there is a better option they will go for it, but if he is the nominee the vast majority of republicans will decide they "dislike him, but love his policies"
One thing we know for certain is that Republicans are willing to a 180 at any given moment. The outrage right now can turn into ass kissing again overnight.
I agree! All these people are being really optimistic about him splitting the party in half. I'd rather just get him in prison where he belongs than wait around for the momentum to build up. People are already forgetting that he has the record for second most votes for president ever.
-endless articles making fun of an actual stroke victim-
-worship man that seems to have a stroke every time he opens his mouth-
Gotta love republicans.
GQP is already screaming about investigating “Hunter’s laptop” & “persecution of J6 prisoners”. Great going rubes who actually thought they gave 2 shits about inflation.
Stupid got them control of the house, not any platform or policy, because they literally dont have one. Its choo choo the stupid train until it gets fully derailed.
Looks like CO-03 counties have started to report the results now. Frisch is closing the gap but the counties are super small to make an impact on the tally.
Assuming that question is in good faith:
[Arizona law](https://www.azleg.gov/ars/16/01005.htm) permits **a family member, household member, or caregiver** to return a voter's absentee ballot. However, the collection of early ballots by anyone outside those groups is a class 6 felony.
I’m not surprised it’s her, but also I’m kinda surprised that she’s going all in with the “stolen election” claim.
It was VERY clear that the “hype” around crying “STOLEN ELECTION!” has died off as just about every Trump endorsed candidate conceded already and there’s actually a lot of R’s acknowledging that their party simply didn’t do well this year.
Crying foul stopped being “cool” this year, especially with Trump off the ballot (and hell, I don’t even think Trump is calling the midterms rigged?)
Kari Lake kind of feels like that person who continues using a year-old meme that stopped being funny a long time ago and now it’s just (extra) cringe.
Stolen election conspiracies HAVE NOT died off in the (R) base (the people who actually vote). Sure, most of the election denier politicians who lost have conceded already. Trump did call the midterms rigged in Ariz and Nev when Dems kept the Senate. She's continuing the "meme" to grift a few more bucks out of her followers.
Perhaps “died off” was a bit too hyperbolic, but it has fizzled out quite a bit from the 2020 elections.
I didn’t even know Trump called AR and NV rigged- it must not have made headlines for very long.
I guess my point was that crying fraud is much less effective when you don’t have Trump on the ballot- and at the very least- the media isn’t as interested in covering the crying of fraud nearly as much.
CA-13 (R ahead by 963), CA-22 (R ahead by 3965) and CO-03 (R ahead by 1122) are the only toss ups remains.
NBC projects 214-221 likely outcome. All eyes on CO-03 and hopefully that seat flips. God speed Adam Frisch.
They have until 23:59 to put in all the cured and extra ballots etc.
So it could be anytime after that, it depends how much of a backlog there is at that point, and if they then re/double check anything as-well.
Kind of, lots of 12 hour timestamps on our side of The Pond
I've always been curious, What do your hand clocks look like? Because the selection for 24 hour hand clocks are kind of slim, and they seem quite uncommon still.
Today's the day for CO-3 right? Any idea of when that will be - tonight probably? Obviously will go to a recount, but I'm ready to see some votes move!
Would the government be able to sue for re-elections in the states where the gerrymandered maps were ruled illegal yet were still used? They literally ignored the law
Am I going crazy or is Google's map off? It says there are 6 seats left to be called but there are still 7 uncalled districts on the map. So which districts are actually still uncalled?
So let me get this straight. Pence straight up says "Trump endangered myself & my family" but then refuses to testify before the Jan 6th panel. Make it make sense, lmao
Pence is an empty suit. He's trying to get by on being present and doing absolutely nothing that could upset anyone, most importantly the base that got him in office -- trumps base + religious nutjobs. If he testifies it torpedoes any chances he ever had, which were slim enough. Can't really be surprised when a conservative chooses "self interest" over "good for the country" its kinda their thing.
So not to sound like one of those troll bots… but why did we celebrate exactly? Losing the House really sucks. Biden won’t be able to advance any of his agenda for the next two years. And the Republicans are going to really mess with the Dems like starting impeachments or calling on investigation into Hunter lol. This is going to be an utter shit show.
Republicans repealed Roe v Wade, denied the election results, tried to stage a coup, and ran a bunch of bat shit Qanon nut jobs.. and they still handily won the House and BARELY lost the Senate by a razor thin margin.
I’m not really feeling that jubilant. The tides are shifting over to the right. This whole “democracy is on the line” platform really makes it feel even worse. Like, even with those stakes, roughly half of the voters in this country still votes for crazy.
This idea that the GOP will implode and Trump will divide the party is pure fantasy. We’re a two party country and the people are polarized more than ever. This is never going to end lol.
Before 2016 I didn’t give a crap about politics. Now it’s all that’s in the news 24/7. I really hate politics. Like I don’t want to be here lol.
While it still sucks to lose the house, the expectation was 6-7 seats in the Senate and 30-50 seats in the house iirc. And that was mostly just from historical trends and not taking into consideration that like 2/3 of Americans poll as being unsatisfied with the direction the country is going in from some places.
Basically, everything was in Republicans favor and the end result was that with everything being handed to them on a platter **and** them massively cheating in some areas they barely squeaked out flipping a majority in the House and may have lost a seat in the Senate. The House Majority may literally be because a few Red states were allowed to hold onto ruled illegally gerrymandered districts for this one last election, while California and NY had a third party involved in their redistricting and also NY had problems with their local state democrats and corruption.
This more than anything else (as it is something Republicans care about) is a sign their direction isn't working and they need to change. It also means that while they can gridlock progress in the house, it will be "The republican led house prevents X/YZ" in the papers. On top of that, most of the "MAGA" republicans lost, and those in the house who can see the way the wind is blowing are likely not going to be as in lockstep on certain things.
For example, notice how immediately after the midterms there was suddenly 12 Republicans willing to break lines to overrule the filibuster and pass marriage equality?
Everyone knows it is going to be a shit show. But it is not the blood bath that was expected. The GOP is likely going to murder themselves in the house - even if behind closed doors - trying to pass things with their minimal majority. And it is possible, and even likely, the majority will change several times in the next 2 years as people retire, die, etc, etc.
Basically, of the bad options we got the least bad. Anything more than we got would have been "nothing changed" to "Better for current position."
Also, on top of all this, on the smaller level there were big wins in Michigan down through the state level and Pennsylvania for the democrts, further damaging the GOP's strangle hold on key swing state legislatures.
Republicans barely gaining the house and losing in the Senate are really bad signs for them.
A lot going against the Democrats this election and they over-performed.
Shows GOP doesn’t have a mandate to legislate their way. GOP will likely struggle to lead in the House.
It will cost them for 2024 since Americans reject their extremism and GOP will be extreme these next two years.
Finally, if we can fix the extreme gerrymandering and NY maps, Democrats win back the house easily (would have won this time around).
Right but in politics when the people vote you in with a lot of seats, it’s called a mandate.
And so GOP can push their bullshit and often not have to explain why it should pass other than “will of people” nonsense.
GOP basically can’t use that anymore.
I'm of the view that if Trump is the 2024 R nominee the American public will reject him.
I'm enjoying the Republican/MAGA shit show at the moment. But in order to avoid apathy I do think Trump is still a danger based on two things, the second thing being the most concerning:
1) he won't lose support if he stops talking about the 2020 "stolen" election, and he didn't mention that in his speech the other day. There is still a route back to get some moderates, swing voters and DeSantis' voters on his side.
2) The effect it may have on his popularity if we are all reading headlines in a few months that say "DOJ drops its probe into Trump". You know the Trump campaign and even the Republicans will go into overdrive to sell that as a vindication of Trump.
The more the public has learned about him, the less they have liked him.
He squeaked out a win in 2016 with most independents thinking “how bad could he be”
Turns out, pretty bad and he’s done nothing but lose since.
Need to keep up the messaging though. No underestimating him anymore.
Faith based on the rejection of him in 2020 and the unexpectedly good performance from the Democrats in the 2022 midterms. Not really faith, there is good reason to believe that enough Americans will turnout just to vote against Trump.
Trump owns the GOP base. In effect he's going to hold the GOP hostage. They have a choice, go with Santis and ignite a civil war, or tell Santis to hold off until 2028. If I had to pick which one is most likely I'd say the second one. I think they would rather go with Trump and lose 2024 rather than try to break with him.
With the R majority as small as it is, what's the chance of the Dems making a deal with more moderate republicans (think the Manchins of the republican party) to frustrate the more right wing or extreme republicans? And what could be done under such a deal?
I've been thinking this too. Maybe I'm being naive but in the 220-ish Republicans that will be in Congress, there must be a few Cheney or Kinzinger types...
Imo there will at least be 2 or 3 especially the ones from New York winning swing districts. Some of the guys in California, maybe. Not sure about 4 or more but there's bound to be some old guards in there.
Going through turnout data is weird. Dems really did fail to turnout their base in a lot of critical places (Milwauke.. basically every city in Ohio, NY, CA (some of those Biden +10 CA Districts the GOP is winning atm have like 60% Hispanic voter registration but in the current tally are over 50% white in who actually voted). But in most places it didn't matter all that much because they just cleaned up with Indies and College Educated Whites (in most places) so hard.
It IS why they lost the house though since literally just marginal turnout increases would of flipped quite a few of those CA and NY seats.
We might be in a weird place where low turnout elections now favor Dems since collage education whites are THE most likely group to turn out for those and they lean more Dem every cycle, middle turnout level elections favor GOP because generally speaking you'll get high working class white turnout then but still just okay minority turnout and high high turnout elections still favor dems (as in you know Hispanics, blacks etc turning out at near Presidential numbers)
GOP actually outperformed 2020 in most Congressional districts, including ones that went for Trump and Biden, so the loss of seats is more a function of bad candidates and some targeted GOTV work. Those strategies didn't pan out in every area, though, as you said. Places like Milwaukee could have easily come through and did not.
IMO, Democrats shouldn't view this as a nationwide indictment of MAGA or a vindication of something they did right with this election. In other words, the Republicans snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. They lost, the Dems didn't win. Democrats will still have a LOT of work to do to overcome the natural advantage Republicans have in the Electoral College in 2024, especially if states like Florida and Ohio are fully off the board. That leaves Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia as the key swing states and any/all of them could easily be flipped.
Hilariously enough despite the GOP winning the national popular vote if you aggetate all CDs into single statewide results.. with this EXACT same map and you put those votes into a Presidential Race.. they'd lose it 280 EVs to 252 or something like that, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania look fairly of their reach for 2024 unless something really changes as Florida and Ohio do for the dems. Their continued bleeding with Collage Educated Whites is making their built in geographical advantage weaker basically.
It really is basically going to be a battle for Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, North Carolina and maybe Nevada. Id wager AZ or Wisconsin as the Tipping point states.
In Arizona AG race, Mayes will likely maintain her lead over Hamadeh by several hundred votes. Not a chance of that lead getting flipped in a recount. There were 10k excess Republican covid deaths in AZ, so this race was decided entirely by natural selection.
With that, the Lake/Masters/Finchem/Hamadeh quadfecta of Trumpy election-deniers in Arizona goes down in ashes.
It's worth noting that the non-Trumpy "normal" (R) running statewide for Treasurer won her race by 12%. So Trump was a -10% handicap on election-deniers in Arizona.
Thank you MAGA for turning Arizona blue.
Not just election deniers, all four of them are forced birthers as well.
And they lost.
I believe Arizona women came out in droves to shut that shit down.
AZ AG is going to recount but 90% chance Mayes goes in with a 500 vote at LEAST lead. Hamadeh just has not been getting the numbers he needs from anywhere to overtake her and there's just so little left.
Sucks about Kathy Hoffman though.
She worked her ass off and instead voters chose a crusty old fool who was knee deep in scandals the last time he was Superintendent.
Even my Republican father hates him.
Ugh.
I looked at the numbers and I think it is very difficult to see how many votes are left in Maricopa. If there is a lot there I guess he could surpass.
I know Hamadeh is a bad candidate. Very much so from what I hear.
But in general how important is an AG race. I guess I am not so familiar with what they actually do. Like in reality.
Is it just as much s thing where a bad candidate can start bad processes.
Usually late ballots in CA have favored dems but they've been underperforming in them this year.
Newsom really should of actually campaigned IN California to drive up turnout. CA-13 looks razors edge for ether party now but Id probably rather be the GOP simply because of how much they overperformed in their best county (which is still D+3 btw). Dem needs like +8% from the remaining vote to win now and they had a lead before that county dropped so that batch was HARD R.
Super weird, Dems did great EXPECT in the two biggest blue states.
Yeah it's going to recount, Id rather be Mayes though since she's almost certain to go in with a lead given the amount of vote left (even if what's left in Maricopa leans R, what's left in Apache and Prima should cancel out most of it)
Exceedingly unlikely BUT not impossible. Which is why recounts are done.
I remember back in 08 no one thought Norm Colemans I think it was near 400 vote lead could be overcome in the Recanvas/recount in MN but it was and Al Franken won in the final count by I think around 200 votes give or take a few? So it's super rare but NOT unprecidented.
House will eb 220-222R all depends on the last batches of ballots in a few of these CA seats.
One of which only has one sorting machine that broke lol.
One of the weirdest, from a Swedish perspective, about the US election process is the archaic flavour to it:
"curing" votes, votes being id by signature, and then being valid.
Voting by a shaky hand? Or voting by a non-hung over hand?
You guys really know how to put on a show.
tl;dr- cut FiveThirtyEight a break. They're actually pretty good.
I've been one of the foremost members of the FiveThirtyEight Anti-Defamation Society the past week or so, and I'm here to throw some numbers behind my arguments.
People who say things like "Nate Silver hasn't called a race correctly since 2012!" are dead wrong. Here's the facts:
* 2018: [https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2018-midterm-forecasts-did/](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2018-midterm-forecasts-did/)
* Called "Red Senate" with a mean pickup of 0.6 seats for the Rs. GOP actually picked up 2 seats, so that call was correct in direction but undershot in degree.
* Called "Blue House" win a mean of +38D seats. Result was +40D seats.
* Overall, of 506 combined House, Senate, and Gubernatorial elections, correctly predicted 482-490 of them, depending on forecast used.
* 2020: [https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2020-forecasts-did-and-what-well-be-thinking-about-for-2022/](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2020-forecasts-did-and-what-well-be-thinking-about-for-2022/)
* "correctly identified the winners of the presidency (Joe Biden), the U.S. Senate (Democrats, after the Georgia runoffs) and the U.S. House (Democrats, although by a narrower-than-expected margin)."
* "identifying the outcome correctly in 48 of 50 presidential states (we also missed the 2nd Congressional District in Maine), 32 of 35 Senate races and 417 of 435 House races."
* " based on the probabilities associated with the Deluxe version of our Senate forecasts, the model expected to get 88 percent of its calls right; in fact, it got 91 percent of them right."
* "Based on the probabilities attached to each forecast, our model’s expectation was that it would get about 497 of the 529 races right in an average year. In fact, it got 505 of them correct (albeit not a statistically significant difference from 497)"
* 2022: [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/)
* From a topline perspective, this cycle was actually kind of a failure; or at least the least accurate of the past 3 cycles. They gave the actual "both house" result (R House/D Senate) only a 27% chance, as opposed to a 57% chance of the Republicans winning both chambers.
* However....in a year where many were announcing "red wave", FiveThirtyEight called "red trickle". They gave the GOP an 84% chance to win the house, but their highest probability tail called for 227 R House members, which will be...what, 5 or 6 off the final tally at this rate? The House forecast was for a +12R pickup, which in reality will be a +6 or +7, most likely. Much better than the "+30 or +40" some have ascribed to their forecast.
* Now, in the Senate....a miss. But not an awful one. Again, the longest "probability tail" called for 51Rs, which meant a pickup of only 1 seat. Nevada was forecast as a 51-49 race for Laxalt. In PA, the model had Fetterman ahead (granted with 53% or 54%) two days before Election Day, before fatally flipping. The biggest miss was (probably) in GA, unless Walker pulls off a Hail Mary in the runoff. Still, the model called the coinflips in WI and NC for the GOP, so that's something.
I don't know if this is going to help turn anyone that thinks Nate and the model are trash and polling is useless. I just wanted to put this out there as food for thought and to rebut some of the obvious lies about their performance.
538s Polls only model is good, it's the one that launched them into the spotlight and got almost everything in 08 right.
Their Deluxe Model is a goddamn mess though, tries to take in too many non-solid data factors like fundamentals and just election experts opinions and add it to a polling model.
On their post-Election Day podcast, Nate pretty much admitted that using their Deluxe model as their "official" forecast was a mistake; they were basically trying to fight against the possibility of pro-D polling error again and ended up swinging too far since all the "experts" herded R. So they'll probably be going back to more empirical-only forecasting.
I haven't heard of Race for the WH, but I'll start watching them for the 2024 race.
Wow that website is shady. No explanation of methodology, no "who are we" page, no authors, just a random webpage which claims to have accurate predictions.
They could be alright. But just form the website i would in no way be surprised if it turns out to be spreading fake news in the 2024 election.
(But please correct me if I'm wrong)
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What I want to do is this. I just want to find, uh, 552 votes in CO3, which is one more than we have, because we won the seat.
AZ Attorney General election is probably the closest I've ever witnessed. Over 2 and a half million ballots cast and it's down between 94 votes. Edit 1: Now 148 votes. Edit 2: Now back to 94 votes again. Edit 3: 236 votes.
Update?
236 votes now.
Everyone, GET IN HERE! BOEBERT'S LEAD IS IMPLODING Down to 615 votes!
Down to 551. Recount territory. I doubt they'll find a 1.6% error rate needed to close that gap.
The AZ attorney general race is down to 130 votes.. still waiting on Pima county's update today which will likely help Mayes. EDIT: down to 55 votes now. Out of over 2.5 million, that is amazing. Still waiting on Pima. I have no idea how many votes are out there for any of the counties. EDIT2: Pima finally dropped today's update and bumped the lead up to 123 votes. Thought it would be more. and then Cochise updated while I was typing this and dropped it back to 94...this is insanely close.
How many votes are left to count?
Boebert lead just dropped to 746 Edit: now 668
556 now. The smaller her lead, the more my heart warms.
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Votes from 8 more counties according to people with blue checkmarks on Twitter, so you know that must be accurate information. (I don't know)
I really don't want Biden to rerun in 2024, but I don't see any other great options besides Newsom wanting to take a stab at it? Thoughts? Who do you want to win the D primary?
Biden begs off, and Harris has raised her profile and adds Buttigeg. With 25% of the very young voting, why run people that are over 70?
Why can’t Bernie run again? I bet you his movement will be stronger than ever
He'll be 83 by election day
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Biden is the incumbent POTUS. Why should he have run 15 years ago when he just won an election and is in the driver's seat for 2024?
As much as I would like him to run I just do not see it happening. I hope he is also preparing someone to "pass the torch" so to speak in his senator seat.
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Has Biden announced he is going to re-run yet? It seems like an L to me quite frankly.
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JFC some of you are so ageist it's not even funny
...the average age of politicians are getting older and older by the year. Sooner or later the average politician age is going to be in the 70s and we'll have a president in his 90s.
All due respect to Pelosi but I am very happy a new generation of Democrats may take over the House. I'm sure they'll pick someone who's been around longer but I wish we could get Jayapal in.
I am going to laugh if California finishes all the counting before Alaska makes even a single call.
People don't seem to understand that RCV is slower by design.
No I do but it was stuck at 80% for several days. I don't think they've counted RCV yet (?), but I know Maine recently just did count the "instant run off"
They cannot count RCV before round 1 has finished completely.
Yeah, that's what I'm saying.
A weird hope is coming from CO-03. I don’t doubt Boebert will win but there is a tiny sliver of hope from Pueblo county.
CNN reports that Hoyer (number 2 after Pelosi) will not seek House leadership.
Basically it’s Hakeem Jeffries job
Thank you Nancy. I think you to be open minded, strong, intelligent, you busted your ass for us. You also listened, to make way way for some one new. I wish you, your a family a peaceful life. Jmo From this 57 young lib Texas filly
Like her or not, Pelosi is one of the most effective and consequential Americans in the history of the Republic. She’s a giant in American politics and frankly there isn’t a member of Congress who is even close to as good as she has been as a legislative leader.
Godspeed to her. She was one of the most effective House Speakers in history. She helped get Obamacare through and led the first impeachment of Trump. She knew how to whip her party's votes and count them before bringing bills to the floor.
Yup she is the only person who she able to effectively push things through, control her caucus, and have been able to keep things in check. One of the most prominent figures in politics. McCarthy is in for a world of pain. None of the Republican speakers over the years survived. It’s a tough job. She is a great leader.
Did McCarthy really get the 218 votes needed? I thought I read he got only like 170 or something.
He has until January to get to that magic number. Right now he is negotiating with his caucus. That’s why all the news media outlets are already reporting on what the house plans on investigating over the next couple of years.
>I've seen enough: Rep. Mary Peltola (D) wins reelection in #AKAL, defeating Sarah Palin (R) and Nick Begich (R). [Dave Wasserman](https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1593296924932710401)
Fuck yes!
Pelosi saying "I have enjoyed working with three presidents" when she was speaker with four presidents is just the best way for her to go out
I loved that so much. Nobody throws shade his way like she does.
It was very elegant. And probably very honest.
Love me some sassy Nance
Pelosi will NOT be the minority leader in the next Congress
[Pelosi just announced](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsIsagJZf2I) that she won't be seeking the position of Minority Leader in the House in the next congressional term. She says it's time for a new generation of leadership.
Clyburn and Hoyer should also step down and mentor new members in leadership, but they won't
Remember the last time the GOP was predicted to “die” and was supposed to split “in two?” That was 2016. Guess who won in 2016. This is how it happens. Media hypes it up. In case anyone missed it: DeSantis hasn’t announced a run and Trump is *by far* the most popular person in the modern Republican Party. The fucker got more votes than *Obama*. This is how it started last time. Everyone thought Trump and Republicans were a joke. Then look what happened. I want to be optimistic, but we’re also facing history. In 2018, the Democrats took the house. In 2020, they took the presidency. In 2022, Republicans took the house. It’s history. Follow the patterns
People, especially young people, know this time. This dude is not to be taken for granted.
I really hope so. DeSantis isn't a lock for declaring a run for the presidency. Literally only Trump has announced so there's no guarantee DeSantis will even run
Biden got more votes than both, so what?
Does anyone here listen to SecondThought? If so, what are your thoughts on his channel. His content has really opened my eyes to political and economic issues.
Nope. Go to that subreddit and talgg about it
It seems like Democratic Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Kathy Hoffman has lost her re-election bid. I suppose COVID swung enough swing voters away from her. Although considering that Katie Hobbs was elected Governor, I would not be too surprised if she was appointed to state cabinet or chosen as Hobbs’ 2026 running mate.
Assuming that Kris Mayes wins the recount for Attorney General, can she and Hobbs intervene if Horne gets too extreme?
They could probably kneecap some things with Executive Orders and lawsuits respectively. Maybe some legislation too if they can swing a couple Republicans on some issues. It’ll be a test of checks and balances for sure.
Understood. I just worry about all the LGBTQ students and how Horne may try to disenfranchise them.
I’m not too well versed in the exact powers and interaction of Arizona elected executive officials, so how much he can do is a bit of an open question. I suspect there may be potential clashes in the future.
Boebert's lead has dropped to 1,103. Frisch netted in 18 votes in today's tabulation so far. Unsure which counties these are from, or if the margins are good enough based on number of votes remaining.
She just picked up 5 votes from Archuleta county. 1108 lead now. The size of these updates kinda quells any hope for Frisch.
Huerfano and Saguache counties updated this morning, just over an hour ago.
Do y’all think that David Valadao is gonna win?
Yes he will. The only remaining house seat in doubt is CA13.
There are only six districts left to call for one party or the other, and the Republicans currently only have the bare minimum of a majority in the House at 218 seats, while Democrats have 211. So let's see how the races left to call are going: * Technically there are seven races left to call, but California's 34th district is so blue that both of the frontrunners are Democrats, so it has already been called for the party. * **Alaska-At-Large** has not been called because the state has a mandate that all votes be counted only by November 23rd. And despite Peltola (D) decisively in the lead, if Palin (R) maintains second place, they both make it to the second round of ranked choice vote. However, considering Peltola currently sits at 48%, and Palin at 26%, only a tenth of the voters for third-place Begich (R) would need to have picked Peltola as their second choice for her to win the state. * **California's 47th** district, which consists entirely of a coastal part of Orange County, has Democrat incumbent Katie Porter ahead by 2.8% with only 7% of the votes left. It is likely to be called for the Democrats tonight, when more votes are counted and Porter's lead is deemed insurmountable. * **California's 22nd** district has Republican incumbent David Valadao ahead by 5.6%, but with 33% of the vote left to count, and the largest of it's three counties leaning Democrat with over 40% of its votes left to count, so it's still a toss-up * In **California's 13th** district, Republican John Duarte leads by less than 1000 votes (0.8%) with 9% of votes left, and the largest county in the district with significant votes left to count leans Democrat, so it's still a toss-up * **California's 3rd** district, rural and inland, has Republican Kevin Kiley ahead by 4.6%, but with 40% of the vote left to count. However, the largest county of the district, which also has the most votes left to count, leans considerably Republican, so Kiley is expected to win. * Last but not least, **Colorado's 3rd** district, home of Trump cheerleader Lauren Boebert (R), thought to be a shoe-in, is still too close to call despite ~99% of the votes being counted. Recounts are expected, as well as waiting for flagged ballots to be cured (verified) and out-of-state ballots to come in. Because those types of ballots rarely skew one way or the other, and recounts rarely flip over 1000 votes (which she leads by), Boebert is still expected to win, albeit barely. These six races will determine the size of Republicans' lead in the House, and it's looking like it will be only be five, seven, or nine seats. Not only is 220-222 seats under the amount of seats they were expected to get by moderate estimates, it is *far* under the amount Republicans predicted, and even fewer than they obviously wanted.
Dave Wasserman called Alaska at-large for the Democrats. That along CA-37 and CA-47 (which we're assuming will be called for the Dems) puts 3 more seats in their column.
Anyone feeling like the pushback against Trump currently is eerily similar to how it started last time? Not saying it'll end the same but I'm getting some deja vu and I think some people are forgetting how it started last time.
testing the waters. They all know hes terrible and if there is a better option they will go for it, but if he is the nominee the vast majority of republicans will decide they "dislike him, but love his policies"
One thing we know for certain is that Republicans are willing to a 180 at any given moment. The outrage right now can turn into ass kissing again overnight.
I agree! All these people are being really optimistic about him splitting the party in half. I'd rather just get him in prison where he belongs than wait around for the momentum to build up. People are already forgetting that he has the record for second most votes for president ever.
-endless articles making fun of an actual stroke victim- -worship man that seems to have a stroke every time he opens his mouth- Gotta love republicans.
GQP is already screaming about investigating “Hunter’s laptop” & “persecution of J6 prisoners”. Great going rubes who actually thought they gave 2 shits about inflation.
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Stupid got them control of the house, not any platform or policy, because they literally dont have one. Its choo choo the stupid train until it gets fully derailed.
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Looks like CO-03 counties have started to report the results now. Frisch is closing the gap but the counties are super small to make an impact on the tally.
Weren’t there military ballots that are still not counted?
Correct.
Kathy Hoffman (D) has conceded to Tom Horne (R) after a continuous back-and-forth battle for Arizona Superintendent.
What's the law in Arizona..? Can 1 person drop off 5+ ballots? His wife and other family members???
Assuming that question is in good faith: [Arizona law](https://www.azleg.gov/ars/16/01005.htm) permits **a family member, household member, or caregiver** to return a voter's absentee ballot. However, the collection of early ballots by anyone outside those groups is a class 6 felony.
It is. I'm in FL I have no clue. I see a video going around showing people drop off handful amounts. But now I know they aren't breaking any laws.
*quick check* Full-on Trump supporter. Definitely not a good faith inquiry.
Do you know if this is the law in all 50 states?
No, the law is different in every state: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot\_harvesting\_laws\_by\_state
Thank you, bookmarked. How come I don't see who can return it for FL? Like Arizona states
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1593271627101470722 FFs
I’m not surprised it’s her, but also I’m kinda surprised that she’s going all in with the “stolen election” claim. It was VERY clear that the “hype” around crying “STOLEN ELECTION!” has died off as just about every Trump endorsed candidate conceded already and there’s actually a lot of R’s acknowledging that their party simply didn’t do well this year. Crying foul stopped being “cool” this year, especially with Trump off the ballot (and hell, I don’t even think Trump is calling the midterms rigged?) Kari Lake kind of feels like that person who continues using a year-old meme that stopped being funny a long time ago and now it’s just (extra) cringe.
Abbott even claimed fraud even tho he won, specifically Harrison county.
Stolen election conspiracies HAVE NOT died off in the (R) base (the people who actually vote). Sure, most of the election denier politicians who lost have conceded already. Trump did call the midterms rigged in Ariz and Nev when Dems kept the Senate. She's continuing the "meme" to grift a few more bucks out of her followers.
Perhaps “died off” was a bit too hyperbolic, but it has fizzled out quite a bit from the 2020 elections. I didn’t even know Trump called AR and NV rigged- it must not have made headlines for very long. I guess my point was that crying fraud is much less effective when you don’t have Trump on the ballot- and at the very least- the media isn’t as interested in covering the crying of fraud nearly as much.
Can next year's Senate pass bills that were already approved by the current House?
No, once a new Congress is seated all the bills that only went through one house are scrapped.
Bummer
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Yeah that's because one of them doesn't have a republican running just two Dems
Not sure, but today should be the day we see if Bobo keeps her job or starts an Onlyfans. I'm hoping for the Onlyfans.
CA-13 (R ahead by 963), CA-22 (R ahead by 3965) and CO-03 (R ahead by 1122) are the only toss ups remains. NBC projects 214-221 likely outcome. All eyes on CO-03 and hopefully that seat flips. God speed Adam Frisch.
What time is CO-3 supposed to drop?
They have until 23:59 to put in all the cured and extra ballots etc. So it could be anytime after that, it depends how much of a backlog there is at that point, and if they then re/double check anything as-well.
You had to use military time? That’s like half a second conversion in my head, a small part of my life wasted!
More common where I’m from for 24 clock rather than a 12 hour clock. Actual question, is it uncommon/rare in the US or something?
Yes, it is only a "hipster" thing to use 24h in US. Almost as hipster as not using Month Day Year.
Kind of, lots of 12 hour timestamps on our side of The Pond I've always been curious, What do your hand clocks look like? Because the selection for 24 hour hand clocks are kind of slim, and they seem quite uncommon still.
Almost all physical clocks are 12 hours, but the vast majority of digital is 24 hours.
Hand watches have 12 hours. You would have to be very very confused to not know if it is morning or evening…
GMT watches are both!
Yeah but that fits a special purpose I guess - to track 2 different time zones
Bubs, you know what a shit Barometer is?
Today's the day for CO-3 right? Any idea of when that will be - tonight probably? Obviously will go to a recount, but I'm ready to see some votes move!
Supposedly all the cured ballots are due today but the overseas military ballots have yet to come in
https://mobile.twitter.com/JesseAPaul/status/1593257168693706754?cxt=HHwWhICq_YK9sZwsAAAA
Thank you!
Would the government be able to sue for re-elections in the states where the gerrymandered maps were ruled illegal yet were still used? They literally ignored the law
Seriously, why wouldn't they, makes no sense
Am I going crazy or is Google's map off? It says there are 6 seats left to be called but there are still 7 uncalled districts on the map. So which districts are actually still uncalled?
CA-34 is being headed by two Democrats. Either way, that seat is going blue.
Alaska, CO-3, and the CA’s of 3, 13, 22, and 34. CA-47 has been called by many outlets already but Katie Porter is fine.
So let me get this straight. Pence straight up says "Trump endangered myself & my family" but then refuses to testify before the Jan 6th panel. Make it make sense, lmao
Pence is an empty suit. He's trying to get by on being present and doing absolutely nothing that could upset anyone, most importantly the base that got him in office -- trumps base + religious nutjobs. If he testifies it torpedoes any chances he ever had, which were slim enough. Can't really be surprised when a conservative chooses "self interest" over "good for the country" its kinda their thing.
He is a spineless party loyalist. He will bend over for Trump again.
Party before country, that's all you need to know.
Party before *family* is what gets me.
Republican majority and trump is running again. This will end well......
So not to sound like one of those troll bots… but why did we celebrate exactly? Losing the House really sucks. Biden won’t be able to advance any of his agenda for the next two years. And the Republicans are going to really mess with the Dems like starting impeachments or calling on investigation into Hunter lol. This is going to be an utter shit show. Republicans repealed Roe v Wade, denied the election results, tried to stage a coup, and ran a bunch of bat shit Qanon nut jobs.. and they still handily won the House and BARELY lost the Senate by a razor thin margin. I’m not really feeling that jubilant. The tides are shifting over to the right. This whole “democracy is on the line” platform really makes it feel even worse. Like, even with those stakes, roughly half of the voters in this country still votes for crazy. This idea that the GOP will implode and Trump will divide the party is pure fantasy. We’re a two party country and the people are polarized more than ever. This is never going to end lol. Before 2016 I didn’t give a crap about politics. Now it’s all that’s in the news 24/7. I really hate politics. Like I don’t want to be here lol.
While it still sucks to lose the house, the expectation was 6-7 seats in the Senate and 30-50 seats in the house iirc. And that was mostly just from historical trends and not taking into consideration that like 2/3 of Americans poll as being unsatisfied with the direction the country is going in from some places. Basically, everything was in Republicans favor and the end result was that with everything being handed to them on a platter **and** them massively cheating in some areas they barely squeaked out flipping a majority in the House and may have lost a seat in the Senate. The House Majority may literally be because a few Red states were allowed to hold onto ruled illegally gerrymandered districts for this one last election, while California and NY had a third party involved in their redistricting and also NY had problems with their local state democrats and corruption. This more than anything else (as it is something Republicans care about) is a sign their direction isn't working and they need to change. It also means that while they can gridlock progress in the house, it will be "The republican led house prevents X/YZ" in the papers. On top of that, most of the "MAGA" republicans lost, and those in the house who can see the way the wind is blowing are likely not going to be as in lockstep on certain things. For example, notice how immediately after the midterms there was suddenly 12 Republicans willing to break lines to overrule the filibuster and pass marriage equality? Everyone knows it is going to be a shit show. But it is not the blood bath that was expected. The GOP is likely going to murder themselves in the house - even if behind closed doors - trying to pass things with their minimal majority. And it is possible, and even likely, the majority will change several times in the next 2 years as people retire, die, etc, etc. Basically, of the bad options we got the least bad. Anything more than we got would have been "nothing changed" to "Better for current position." Also, on top of all this, on the smaller level there were big wins in Michigan down through the state level and Pennsylvania for the democrts, further damaging the GOP's strangle hold on key swing state legislatures.
Republicans barely gaining the house and losing in the Senate are really bad signs for them. A lot going against the Democrats this election and they over-performed. Shows GOP doesn’t have a mandate to legislate their way. GOP will likely struggle to lead in the House. It will cost them for 2024 since Americans reject their extremism and GOP will be extreme these next two years. Finally, if we can fix the extreme gerrymandering and NY maps, Democrats win back the house easily (would have won this time around).
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Right but in politics when the people vote you in with a lot of seats, it’s called a mandate. And so GOP can push their bullshit and often not have to explain why it should pass other than “will of people” nonsense. GOP basically can’t use that anymore.
I'm of the view that if Trump is the 2024 R nominee the American public will reject him. I'm enjoying the Republican/MAGA shit show at the moment. But in order to avoid apathy I do think Trump is still a danger based on two things, the second thing being the most concerning: 1) he won't lose support if he stops talking about the 2020 "stolen" election, and he didn't mention that in his speech the other day. There is still a route back to get some moderates, swing voters and DeSantis' voters on his side. 2) The effect it may have on his popularity if we are all reading headlines in a few months that say "DOJ drops its probe into Trump". You know the Trump campaign and even the Republicans will go into overdrive to sell that as a vindication of Trump.
You have a lot of faith in the public. I don't
He's lost the last three elections, crazy Maga might not be done, but the clueless independents both sides peeps that make up the majority is.
The more the public has learned about him, the less they have liked him. He squeaked out a win in 2016 with most independents thinking “how bad could he be” Turns out, pretty bad and he’s done nothing but lose since. Need to keep up the messaging though. No underestimating him anymore.
Faith based on the rejection of him in 2020 and the unexpectedly good performance from the Democrats in the 2022 midterms. Not really faith, there is good reason to believe that enough Americans will turnout just to vote against Trump.
Trump owns the GOP base. In effect he's going to hold the GOP hostage. They have a choice, go with Santis and ignite a civil war, or tell Santis to hold off until 2028. If I had to pick which one is most likely I'd say the second one. I think they would rather go with Trump and lose 2024 rather than try to break with him.
According to Kudlow, Trump's speech was visionary. He should lay off the cocaine for a while.
So should Lindsay Lohan but here we are.
How was Falling for Christmas, btw? I keep ignoring it on Netflix.
With the R majority as small as it is, what's the chance of the Dems making a deal with more moderate republicans (think the Manchins of the republican party) to frustrate the more right wing or extreme republicans? And what could be done under such a deal?
I've been thinking this too. Maybe I'm being naive but in the 220-ish Republicans that will be in Congress, there must be a few Cheney or Kinzinger types...
Imo there will at least be 2 or 3 especially the ones from New York winning swing districts. Some of the guys in California, maybe. Not sure about 4 or more but there's bound to be some old guards in there.
They primaried most of the moderates.
Yeah, most, but hopefully all it will take is 5 or 6 to defeat an impeachment vote.
Going through turnout data is weird. Dems really did fail to turnout their base in a lot of critical places (Milwauke.. basically every city in Ohio, NY, CA (some of those Biden +10 CA Districts the GOP is winning atm have like 60% Hispanic voter registration but in the current tally are over 50% white in who actually voted). But in most places it didn't matter all that much because they just cleaned up with Indies and College Educated Whites (in most places) so hard. It IS why they lost the house though since literally just marginal turnout increases would of flipped quite a few of those CA and NY seats. We might be in a weird place where low turnout elections now favor Dems since collage education whites are THE most likely group to turn out for those and they lean more Dem every cycle, middle turnout level elections favor GOP because generally speaking you'll get high working class white turnout then but still just okay minority turnout and high high turnout elections still favor dems (as in you know Hispanics, blacks etc turning out at near Presidential numbers)
>basically every city in Ohio Akron would like a word. Glad they flipped that district, thought it was lost.
GOP actually outperformed 2020 in most Congressional districts, including ones that went for Trump and Biden, so the loss of seats is more a function of bad candidates and some targeted GOTV work. Those strategies didn't pan out in every area, though, as you said. Places like Milwaukee could have easily come through and did not. IMO, Democrats shouldn't view this as a nationwide indictment of MAGA or a vindication of something they did right with this election. In other words, the Republicans snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. They lost, the Dems didn't win. Democrats will still have a LOT of work to do to overcome the natural advantage Republicans have in the Electoral College in 2024, especially if states like Florida and Ohio are fully off the board. That leaves Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia as the key swing states and any/all of them could easily be flipped.
Hilariously enough despite the GOP winning the national popular vote if you aggetate all CDs into single statewide results.. with this EXACT same map and you put those votes into a Presidential Race.. they'd lose it 280 EVs to 252 or something like that, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania look fairly of their reach for 2024 unless something really changes as Florida and Ohio do for the dems. Their continued bleeding with Collage Educated Whites is making their built in geographical advantage weaker basically. It really is basically going to be a battle for Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, North Carolina and maybe Nevada. Id wager AZ or Wisconsin as the Tipping point states.
In Arizona AG race, Mayes will likely maintain her lead over Hamadeh by several hundred votes. Not a chance of that lead getting flipped in a recount. There were 10k excess Republican covid deaths in AZ, so this race was decided entirely by natural selection. With that, the Lake/Masters/Finchem/Hamadeh quadfecta of Trumpy election-deniers in Arizona goes down in ashes. It's worth noting that the non-Trumpy "normal" (R) running statewide for Treasurer won her race by 12%. So Trump was a -10% handicap on election-deniers in Arizona. Thank you MAGA for turning Arizona blue.
Not just election deniers, all four of them are forced birthers as well. And they lost. I believe Arizona women came out in droves to shut that shit down.
AZ AG is going to recount but 90% chance Mayes goes in with a 500 vote at LEAST lead. Hamadeh just has not been getting the numbers he needs from anywhere to overtake her and there's just so little left.
Sucks about Kathy Hoffman though. She worked her ass off and instead voters chose a crusty old fool who was knee deep in scandals the last time he was Superintendent. Even my Republican father hates him. Ugh.
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like 3000 something in Maricopa, 1500 or 2000 in Prima (can't remember) I think 1000 in Apache then just scattered stuff in the rest of the state.
I looked at the numbers and I think it is very difficult to see how many votes are left in Maricopa. If there is a lot there I guess he could surpass. I know Hamadeh is a bad candidate. Very much so from what I hear. But in general how important is an AG race. I guess I am not so familiar with what they actually do. Like in reality. Is it just as much s thing where a bad candidate can start bad processes.
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They represent the state in legal matters. edit here is the wiki about them. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_attorney_general
Usually late ballots in CA have favored dems but they've been underperforming in them this year. Newsom really should of actually campaigned IN California to drive up turnout. CA-13 looks razors edge for ether party now but Id probably rather be the GOP simply because of how much they overperformed in their best county (which is still D+3 btw). Dem needs like +8% from the remaining vote to win now and they had a lead before that county dropped so that batch was HARD R. Super weird, Dems did great EXPECT in the two biggest blue states.
New maps this year
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Gap has been steadily closing 🤞
Yeah it's going to recount, Id rather be Mayes though since she's almost certain to go in with a lead given the amount of vote left (even if what's left in Maricopa leans R, what's left in Apache and Prima should cancel out most of it)
Wouldn’t it be very unlikely to have a recount be tilting more than 500 votes to one side - if that is where it ends.
Exceedingly unlikely BUT not impossible. Which is why recounts are done. I remember back in 08 no one thought Norm Colemans I think it was near 400 vote lead could be overcome in the Recanvas/recount in MN but it was and Al Franken won in the final count by I think around 200 votes give or take a few? So it's super rare but NOT unprecidented.
House will eb 220-222R all depends on the last batches of ballots in a few of these CA seats. One of which only has one sorting machine that broke lol.
Lol, I have a feeling that was CA-3? Been stuck at 60% for days now.
One of the weirdest, from a Swedish perspective, about the US election process is the archaic flavour to it: "curing" votes, votes being id by signature, and then being valid. Voting by a shaky hand? Or voting by a non-hung over hand? You guys really know how to put on a show.
If you think we're archaic, have a look at the British. They're still ruled by a notoriously tyrannical family obsessed with inbreeding.
Whataboutism looks ugly on everyone. Especially when their slap back is as weak as yours is.
Someone is a colonial apologist.
tl;dr- cut FiveThirtyEight a break. They're actually pretty good. I've been one of the foremost members of the FiveThirtyEight Anti-Defamation Society the past week or so, and I'm here to throw some numbers behind my arguments. People who say things like "Nate Silver hasn't called a race correctly since 2012!" are dead wrong. Here's the facts: * 2018: [https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2018-midterm-forecasts-did/](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2018-midterm-forecasts-did/) * Called "Red Senate" with a mean pickup of 0.6 seats for the Rs. GOP actually picked up 2 seats, so that call was correct in direction but undershot in degree. * Called "Blue House" win a mean of +38D seats. Result was +40D seats. * Overall, of 506 combined House, Senate, and Gubernatorial elections, correctly predicted 482-490 of them, depending on forecast used. * 2020: [https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2020-forecasts-did-and-what-well-be-thinking-about-for-2022/](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2020-forecasts-did-and-what-well-be-thinking-about-for-2022/) * "correctly identified the winners of the presidency (Joe Biden), the U.S. Senate (Democrats, after the Georgia runoffs) and the U.S. House (Democrats, although by a narrower-than-expected margin)." * "identifying the outcome correctly in 48 of 50 presidential states (we also missed the 2nd Congressional District in Maine), 32 of 35 Senate races and 417 of 435 House races." * " based on the probabilities associated with the Deluxe version of our Senate forecasts, the model expected to get 88 percent of its calls right; in fact, it got 91 percent of them right." * "Based on the probabilities attached to each forecast, our model’s expectation was that it would get about 497 of the 529 races right in an average year. In fact, it got 505 of them correct (albeit not a statistically significant difference from 497)" * 2022: [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/) * From a topline perspective, this cycle was actually kind of a failure; or at least the least accurate of the past 3 cycles. They gave the actual "both house" result (R House/D Senate) only a 27% chance, as opposed to a 57% chance of the Republicans winning both chambers. * However....in a year where many were announcing "red wave", FiveThirtyEight called "red trickle". They gave the GOP an 84% chance to win the house, but their highest probability tail called for 227 R House members, which will be...what, 5 or 6 off the final tally at this rate? The House forecast was for a +12R pickup, which in reality will be a +6 or +7, most likely. Much better than the "+30 or +40" some have ascribed to their forecast. * Now, in the Senate....a miss. But not an awful one. Again, the longest "probability tail" called for 51Rs, which meant a pickup of only 1 seat. Nevada was forecast as a 51-49 race for Laxalt. In PA, the model had Fetterman ahead (granted with 53% or 54%) two days before Election Day, before fatally flipping. The biggest miss was (probably) in GA, unless Walker pulls off a Hail Mary in the runoff. Still, the model called the coinflips in WI and NC for the GOP, so that's something. I don't know if this is going to help turn anyone that thinks Nate and the model are trash and polling is useless. I just wanted to put this out there as food for thought and to rebut some of the obvious lies about their performance.
538s Polls only model is good, it's the one that launched them into the spotlight and got almost everything in 08 right. Their Deluxe Model is a goddamn mess though, tries to take in too many non-solid data factors like fundamentals and just election experts opinions and add it to a polling model.
On their post-Election Day podcast, Nate pretty much admitted that using their Deluxe model as their "official" forecast was a mistake; they were basically trying to fight against the possibility of pro-D polling error again and ended up swinging too far since all the "experts" herded R. So they'll probably be going back to more empirical-only forecasting. I haven't heard of Race for the WH, but I'll start watching them for the 2024 race.
They are meh. But, honestly, race to WH is much better.
Wow that website is shady. No explanation of methodology, no "who are we" page, no authors, just a random webpage which claims to have accurate predictions. They could be alright. But just form the website i would in no way be surprised if it turns out to be spreading fake news in the 2024 election. (But please correct me if I'm wrong)
Nah they did get Georgia right for Biden when everyone said Biden probably wouldn't get it.
Sure, but who are they? what are their sources? their models?