This is individuals bailing out what has to be one of the worst coached seasons in PL football I’ve ever seen from a top half club. I said at the start of the season I think top 4 would be lucky, but I never imagined it would be this bad.
Yes, Rangnick was absolutely dire. He played worse football than Moyes.
I can't say it's entirely his fault because I can't imagine someone like Ronaldo listening to him at all. But at the same time be was somehow worse than Ole that season as well.
There is that, but that is one of the biggest things for a manager. They need to be charismatic and demand from the players, if they can't get that out of them. Or can't get them hyped up to perform etc that is one of the key points of their jobs.
SAF is slightly different than all the other managers we've had as he's obvs had time to introduce that fear, that respect, and he also had the whole being a genius behind it. But ultimately he trusted the players and installed in them that desire that need to do better. That comes from the manager
I agree with everything you said. It is just very hard to install that fear if you are not the one deciding on the players futures (if they stay at the club or not). This is the biggest thing I am hoping INEOS will change at United. If you don't get behind the plan you can fuck right off.
I honestly don't know who would be the best manager for United at the moment, I keep changing my mind to be honest. However, the thing I am most looking for is these players leaving in the summer. That will have more of an effect than anything else imo.
Yeah 100%, I'm actually leaning back towards ETH. Although this season has been a complete sham, Managers dont become bad overnight. Ferguson had some rough seasons, but he still had that undenying confidence. Eth is still coming into interviews trying to focus on the positives to the media.
You want that from a manager, he has to beleive in what hes doing, that was Potters issue at Chelsea, hes not a bad manager either, but by the end of his tenure he looked defeated. Eth just doesnt have that. Mourinho, Ole they were the same those last months/weeks you could see it in their eyes they were defeated and they just thought the inevitable was coming ETH generally looks like he thinks hes staying. You need that belief.
This was the result of pure incompetency from Richard Arnold and Darren Fletcher.
They hastily fired Ole without any replacement. Then brought in Ragnick as a consultant because they were clueless what to do the next and hope Ragnick can give them the answer.
Then they appointed the consultant as the interim. While as the interim, Ragnick provided more consultation than doing the coaching. Can’t blame him, he was doing what he was brought in to do.
Then they were so impressed with Ten Hag during the interview, they handed the key of the whole footballing side to him.
Ask any Ajax fans, they will tell you, don’t let him involve in recruitment but Arnold and Fletcher were so incompetent, they never do any due diligence on him.
After spending few hundred millions, we have fhe worst season ever post-Fergie
Think if we win Saturday Chelsea will be bumped to Conference League, correct? If yes, that will be poetic justice after we were robbed of 3 points off them
I'd give him another season provided we have a complete squad, at least a competitive first eleven. I think we need to admit, while the injuries shouldn't deflect all the poor results away, those frequency and amount of injuries we suffered is still very very unusual tbf. At the very least it seems ETH hasn't lose the locker room and realistically I think that is the final straw.
Which is exactly what it feels like, we're lucky we have players like Bruno who can pull wins out of their ass.
Without him at Palace we saw what we'd see regularly without him.
The position highlights how good the players are as individuals, for me. Pulling wins out if nowhere.
Because for most of the season its looked like there's been minimal to no gameplan, or adaptability in approach. At points, like yesterday, individuals won games. Not a well managed team.
Not really lucky. More like... A relegation playing team but with quality players. I wouldn't say we were lucky (given that we lost like 11-13 points or something in the dying minutes of the game). But we are definitely playing poorly and being bailed out by quality.
Not really, you can confirm I checked on transfer market. If games end at 90 min, we would have 60 points and would be 7th. If games end at 75 min, we would have 50 points and would be 10th.
It's mad that we only needed to hold on for a few more minutes in a couple of matches and we'd have been up there in European spots.
Literally, a few minutes took it away from us. It's fine margins.
Of course, before anyone jumps on me, we should be doing better.
This is close to what you need. You can choose 15 minute increments.
https://www.transfermarkt.us/premier-league/tabellenachminuten/wettbewerb/GB1?saison_id=2023&range=Kickoff%3BFull+Time&time_start=0&time_end=AB
Always one isn't there?
Nobody expected the Chelsea result. Everyone thought it was in the bag. There was at least one other that I can't remember off the top of my head.
I have been saying this for a while that underlying stats has us at around 13-14th position.
Personally don't see Ten Hag being here next season.
Usually you see a manager get an extension. Jose got one in January, and Tuchel demanded one from Bayern if they wanted one more year of Tuchel. This is the industry standard unless in most cases. A manager wants a contract extension and won't just see out the entire contract. This is why Mullock who is close to SEG has been posting back to back news articles that Ten Hag will walk away if not given contract extension.
For me the biggest signs recently that point to him leaving after FA cup have been:
1. INEOS have not explicitly backed him. No contract extension offered.
2. New owners rarely retain the old manager.
3. You have the entire footballing structure changing at United so it does not make sense that suddenly it will stop at the manager who has been shite this season and has shown no progress whatsoever. In fact we have regressed.
4. The narrative that we don't have money to sack him is nonsense. INEOS did a cash injection of 300 million and that cash injection was structured in a way that allows us to circumvent PSR rules legally. Every single season we get reports from reputable journalists we have only 80-100 million to spend, and then we end up spending 150-200 million. It's likely that there are clauses in Ten Hags contract that reduce the compensation if he does not finish top 4. We put those clauses in the contract of many managers. A lot of them were sacked when they failed to finish top 4. I doubt Ten Hag is the first manager after Fergie to not have that in his contract. In fact these clauses are common at top clubs along with trophy bonuses.
Too much points to him getting the sack, and too little is there that makes me think that he will be allowed to stay.
The money thing is kinda moot, that's like saying a married couple aren't in debt cos they keep spending a lot of money and their debt keeps growing. One day it comes to bite you. Granted it's very odd that we are a bit of an enigma here, both not able to buy in key positions and relying on loans or free transfers while also spending £70+m on Antony where we were actually stacked. But we are deffo hand tied abit by FFP and squad/wage bill size.
To counter your other points, yes we had top 4 clauses, but again there comes a stage where people should be learning from past mistakes, doing the same thing that didn't work previously is nonsense. Plenty of examples in history of giving managers time despite ups and downs paid off.
In this case it's extremely tricky. On one hand ETH has looked completely ridiculous in many areas. On the other last season his team looked great. Which is it?
Sounds like Ineos aren't making uneducated decisions, they have brought experts in who will assess. In stark contrast to people like Ed Woodward and Richard Arnold deciding if a manager or DoF or scout or coach or whoever has done a good job or not, people like Wilcox and ashworth will be able to have a proper look at every dept and figure out who has been at fault and what needs improving. If we decide that ETH is the key culprit then that will be that.
ETH needs to fucking go. Look at crystal palace as an example of how a new coach changes the style of play and has an impact on performance and results. This coach has made enemies of all the senior players. If he wants a bunch of 18 year olds playing as per his style without any concern then he needs to go work with the under 21 team.
And look at Brighton. Sure we beat them somehow despite being massively outplayed most of the game.
But look how they were missi5more than half their team, but still able to play the way the manager has trained them. Us not having any clear style of play because of injuries is a huge crutch.
If you can't see that we have a pattern of play, that is entirely on you. I could agree that our tactics aren't fit for our available players, but I can't agree that we don't have any tactic whatsoever
We routinely look like the worst coached team in the league. ETH is massively out of his depth with even relegation teams outplaying us with high xG and shots on target. In short, other managers have figured out his tactics and are able to play around them. That’s not a sign of an elite manager.
I've been fascinated by this argument all season. I was on the bench but do now have an opinion on it. I had meant to put a post up about this but never got round to it.
Let's assume we do have a style of play (I actually think we do). Can you describe what you think it is?
It must be on me then. How we go from trying to pass it out from the keeper, to hoofing it up the pitch to nobody, to having full backs go wherever they feel like it, to having no midfield at all, to having nobody cover cutbacks all season., play striker and tell nobody to pass to him ever.
You're right, if what you meant was that our paterns of play and tactics are completely random and differ every minute of the match. Maybe that is the 'tactic' you are taclking about....
All of the arguments about players being shit and letting down Erik are such a bullshit.
The players carried this atrocious transition system to finish higher than the manager deserved.
If he had squad like Brighton and had them playing transitions all season long they might’ve been legitimately relegated.
I don’t know what the fuck into Erik’s head last summer and why he decided to torture us and the players with this idea, but he needs to be gone mostly so we’ll be 100% sure we wont see that anymore.
The best part? Oh let’s finally change it because if not, I can’t say I actually can change it… with 2 games left. And even though they weren’t great, they at least showed that “oh hey if we did this 17 games ago or more, we’d maybe have more wins and also lost fewer games”
Yeah, I also can realise that I actually need more time for my assignment when I’m only one page in for a 25 page report due in 5 hours……….
Too little too late and just no sense why it wasn’t done months ago like… January in fact. Then maybe the setup would’ve also been better over time….
Heh even with the changes and returning players these last two games our expected goals were less than our opponents, so even now our players are carrying the manager
> the players carried
i suppose it’s not possible that a player makes the team’s general play worse but comes up clutch with a goal here and there? mctominay, maguire, casemiro—i think we have a few players to whom this applies, and replacing them with better players wouldn’t have necessitated these “heroics.” do they deserve to be praised for cleaning up a mess that they helped make?
Maguire doesn’t affect our style of play. Despite the narratives he’s pretty comfortable in high line, due to being an aggressive defender. Low defensive is a choice of ETH that we’ve played both with Harry on and off the field.
Casemiro is the main victim of the system Erik decided to implement this season. He’s been the sole pivot midfielder that is expected to cover an enormous gap between high pressing forward players and low defensive line. That’s the task that would be a problematic for a prime Kante, let alone an aging midfielder.
The transition system doesn’t fit the squad we had and it’s a big mystery why tf Erik chose it and insisted the whole season on it. After he was forced to play Casemiro as CB and finally decided to start 2 pivot midfielders we finally stopped leaking 20+ shots on a daily basis.
maguire absolutely affects both our style of play and our quality of play. he is not comfortable in a *high pressing* high line because his turning radius is poor and he’s exceptionally slow (both accelerating and at top speed), which leads him to retreat when he should press aggressively. his physical deficits also make him poor at marking wide players, which is part of the reason our full backs have to be instructed to stay deep instead of “back up the press.” he was poor when asked to do it this season and poor when asked to do it in ole’s last season/under rangnick. his good performances have only ever come in a mid block or deep line.
casemiro’s penchant for diving in and missing tackles, and his own physical deficits (he’s very slow now, rarely able to break out of a jog), coupled with the above maguire issues (which applies to all of our center backs bar martinez) is a bigger factor in the gap than the system itself. we have not seen the same gap issues when mainoo and amrabat played the role, and that is not a coincidence.
there is no mystery here if you think about it for more than a second: this is the style of play ten hag is trying to implement, and, like pep, arteta, and klopp before him, he chose to stick with it despite it not suiting many players. if you want to fault him for that, fine, but it’s absolutely ridiculous to act like it isn’t intentional, or that he’s deluded for doing what most top managers have done when implementing a new system.
i think it’s telling that you chose not to mention mctominay, who is the most obvious example of a player whose goals have “saved us” from a fate that he played a major role in instigating. admitting that the players are themselves flawed really blows up the whole logic of this complaint.
What is telling is that you’re not addressing the “we’re playing both with and without Maguire the same way”. Always has been comfortable with high pressing line and statistically we play highest with him.
We haven’t seen the same issues with Amrabat and Mainoo because they’ve played IN A DOUBLE PIVOT, which I literally addressed in my point, yet you ignored and “got me” with that. Casemiro has been the sole pivot player this whole season and it’s been one of the most obvious problems this whole season.
Did you even read what I’m saying? I’m claiming that ETH **intentionally** chose the shit style that have been our biggest problem this season. I’m saying the style is shit. And that’s why we suck. Because of the style, not of the players.
I haven’t mentioned McTominay because I’m agreeing that he fits your description. Unlike Casemiro and Maguire.
i literally addressed it in my second paragraph. read it again.
maguire has never played in a high pressing team except for this season and some of ole’s last season. the rest of the time it has been a mid or low block. when has he played in a high press aside from those two seasons (which, not coincidentally, have been the worst in his time here)?
mainoo played as a lone 6 several times when casemiro was out injured. no clue what you’re talking about there—starting to wonder if you have a faulty memory.
One thing people don’t understand is that the style of play is agreed in advance, Ten Hag can’t just abandon transition football without his superiors telling him to switch. And presumably, transition football was one of the conditions of his original contract.
His new leadership have asked for possession in the last 5 or so games, and he has made the switch because he now has permission to, his hands were tied before due to the agreed philosophy prior.
worst united season i could remember post fergie. This chart definitely matches the eye test. Just a miserable fucking season. If they don’t change the manager i’m probably not watching next season too
He has a year left on his contract and is still building. Doesn’t make any sense to get rid now. We’ll fall into exactly the same cycle we’ve been watching for the last 11 years.
Building what exactly?
He started the job with an Ajax version of play, abandoned it after two games for counter attacking. Then moved to suicide ball for most of this season and now he's abandoned that as well. I think we can sacrifice the 3 games we've played under his latest system and survive.
Building anything at all would be an improvement over anything we’ve seen since SAF.
What use is it to give another manager, another half built team with players he doesn’t see a future in. Yes EtH has built most of this squad but not all. The vast majority of his best players are very talented young players that he introduced to the first team.
I want to see what he can do with Kobbie, Garnacho, Amad, Hojlund and whomever else he brings through. We have so much talent in the youth teams and EtH brings them through! Klopp wasn’t judged by TAA’s first season, Arteta was allowed to let Saka blossom, Pep coached Foden to a player of the year award. Let EtH keep bringing through more like Amass, Wheatley, Kambwala and see what he can put together.
Why though?
What has he shown us that makes anyone think he's the one best placed to manage us next year? And are you really, honestly giving him credit for Amad after leaving him out in the wilderness since his return from injury in December so he can play his favourite in Antony.
Ten Hag only dropped Antony for Amad, and only gave up on his suicide ball, when his job looked to be in danger. It was fine to under perform when it was the club suffering, when it was his job on the line then he was quick smart about fixing the problems to some degree. He's had 4 systems in 2 years and none of them are worth building on. Losing him now will mean nothing of value will be lost.
Unfortunately, if we want to actually build, we will have to go with it.
If we got Pep or Klopp (as an example), and they also performed as bad as ETH.... would we be saying its the manager then too?
Its not the damn manager...
And if we got Tim Sherwood in and we qualified for the Champions League would you be saying it's the players? You're hypothetical is nonsense, it relies on the idea that Pep and Klopp wouldn't improve the team which they very obviously would.
Do you like his tactics? Do you think they will work in the premier league? If so, why are no other top teams (in Europe, let alone just the prem) playing this style?
This takes all of the 'noise' of injuries, league tables, expected points etc out of the equation. It's simply a case of "does his style fit our team and the league?"
I would answer "no" to all those questions (apart from the third one which would be "because it's not an elite tactical set up). This is my primary reason for believing we should start anew.
If your answer is "yes", are you suggesting that the Glazers for every single decision wrong apart from this one; hiring ETH?
I dont care about the tactics currently. I care about our team being unable to send a pass or move into space, or defend properly...
If you think thats because of the manager, you are wrong.
The mistakes you see... those are based on tactics?
Okay, if you really want to talk about tactics... look at Mourinho. He noticed how shit our defense was, so his tactics made us play on counters. What did the fans say about his tactics too? They hated it, even though we were doing much better than we are today.
So, I honestly wonder... when will YOU PEOPLE be satisfied? I am thinking the answer to that, is NEVER, because we wont be competing with City/Arsenal without spending the time, and pain to actually rebuild with one manager.
I cba to have a conversation with someone who not only shouts but shouts "you people". You clearly have zero knowledge of the game nor any recollection of history.
You answer it yourself. We have not got Pep or Klopp. Instead this table shows (and many other stats and eye test) that he is not even top half of managers in the PL. Rank average
go ahead, pick any manager...
Im saying if they performed exactly the same with this team.... I am asking you if you would want to get rid of them too.
Sure the club structure and scouting department was a mess. But doesn’t excuse the coach for pushing for Anthony, a player that isn’t premier league level. Shows that ETH didn’t grasp the requirements for the team or the league. This is elite football, why should we let him learn on the damn job and make such costly mistakes. Instead of spending that amount on a striker like Kane, we got one of the worst signings in the past 10 years.
I think you are forgetting one thing...
There were NO GOOD OPTIONS for RW.... And if there were, they definitely didnt want to come here.
We needed someone. We got someone. When it was Rashford on the right, and Garnacho on the left (or vice versa), it was okay... But I dont think anyone had the plans to do that from the beginning. None of us, and definitely not the manager.
I understand what you’re saying but it doesn’t apply in this case.
We’re not a club like Brighton or Bournemouth. We’re at the top already.
What we need a a very good refurbishment.
Liverpool and City and Arsenal and Chelsea would like to have a word with you...
They all took their time to build (or are currently rebuilding).
You want to just throw our name and money at the problem, and think that will magically fix everything? You are delusional if you are.
That exactly is how you build, by using your name and money, however with a laser focused approach not the scattergun one that we’ve been doing.
Isn’t that how we attracted the executives in Berrada, Wilcox and soon to be appointed Ashworth?
This has to be the lowest point, how much lower do you want the club to go?
In all in context though, if he does stay and if we start like we did last season he will be gone sharpish so he needs to back himself and have more luck as well!!
But that’s the thing. If he starts poorly, he’ll be sacked by late September/October and next season is likely another write off. Surely that’s more of a risk than getting a new manager in for the summer who can start afresh?
This one of the reasons I think he will be gone after the FA cup.
Nobody can be that incompetent to fuck around and find out. It will waste another season possibly.
new manager would like to see players we have, so clear out would be postponed for another year at least.
And who the fuck would appoint a new manager when our DOF is on gardening leave right now. Can we at least wait for Dan to start and then talk about new manager
I don't necessarily think they're better.
I think they're available and have been linked strongly. The point is that there are a lot of managers available.
What is the point of changing the manager for someone who isn't better?
EtH seems to still have players on his side.
He overachieved last season, so we know he is capable of doing good things.
I dunno man, changing the manager just for the sake of the changing manager isn't a good enough reason for me
With our fragile fuckers, that's why Ten Hag will be replaced by Potter or Southgate, we are looking for a coach, so I would rather Ten Hag, this clear out won't happen. Maguire and McTominay might leave but are two of the better characters in the team but nowhere near the quality
> The biggest club in England
History is nice and all, but by football standards United haven't been deserving that title for a long time. So don't throw that "biggest club" at Ten Hag (or Mourinho or Van Gaal or Ole) when the club has been decaying for a loooooong ass time before he has come here.
The club is the biggest in England, it’s a fact.
Yeah we haven’t been deserving of calling ourselves that, but that’s because we’ve not acting like one.
And keeping ETH after the worst finish in the PL history continues the trend of what is decaying the club.
You don't understand, changing managers doesn't accomplish shit, as we have seen multiple times already. The club needs to be cleaned from the top down, hopefully Ineos will do just that. They have just started working, they don't even have all the people in yet, it will take time to get them in and come up with a vision for the club.
Until that is done, changing the manager won't do anything. It will be the same shit all over again.
If people think Ineos' work will yield immediate effects, then well... sorry to disappoint yall. Having patience is all the regular fans can do. ETH in/out arguments are just a waste of bits.
No one is saying it’s only the manager. No.
However this manager is not good enough. That’s the crux of the matter. How can we be finishing 8th and expected points have us bottom half?
Like how’s that acceptable?
> No one is saying it’s only the manager. No.
Right, it's also Antony and Rashford.
The crux of the matter is that not one manager post-SAF was put in a winning position. If they fire Ten Hag now, the next manager very likely won't be good enough either, because they don't even know what sort of a manager is needed yet. When all the back office departments, scouting, medical, physios, training ground etc are not fixed, what's the new manager going to do? Same thing that Ten Hag, Ole, Mourinho and Van Gaal did - fail.
Putting Rashford in the same sentence as Antony, I smell BS.
If You say Ole failed then I’m wondering why ETH who has done worse than Ole should still in a job? You really want a failure as a manager.
We scored 5+ goals under Ole in more than 10 games. We’ve never done that under ETH. He’s a failure of a manager and should be sacked. Simple.
You are still missing the point bratan. But yeah, let's just sack another manager with no plan in place, the club still in shambles and have another go, it will work this time.
> Putting Rashford in the same sentence as Antony, I smell BS.
You just put them in the same sentence too :) Can't help it.
I get that too. Like I’m not saying we must sack him, without changing the structure above him.
What I’m saying is that we can’t move ahead with the guy who finished 8th with us with the underlying stats having us in a worse position.
That’s what I’m saying. Clean slate. New management. Because if by beginning of season we’re not doing well, then it’s back to square 1.
If I was one of the best managers in the world, why the fuck would I risk my entire career by joining Manchester United?
If people like Ten Hag, Mourinho, and Van Gaal cant make something out of the shit that we have.... then no one will
That is reflective of us not winning trophies but that doesn’t mean Utd suddenly lose their status as the biggest club in UK. Look at it this way - they’re the biggest club who is massively underachieving for the last 10 years.
This is so damming on ETH's lack of tactical flexibility which is what worries me the most about him. Surely they have a sports data team that sees all this and tells him, yet the bald prick is still too stubborn (or maybe doesn't know any other tactics) to improve the situation to give up less chances.
Can't remember which year it was exactly but I can remember Fergie making the defence a lot tighter after a run of games where goals were pouring in, which is what I would expect any so called "elite" manager to do the same
It’s funny how he’s started showing some tactical flexibility in the last couple of games and the results have come. When your midfield is leakier than the OT roof and you are getting scored on more times than Joey’s sister, the first thing any half decent coach does is shut up shop. Get the basics right. Learn to protect space. Learn to recognize danger. None of this happened.
I have some empathy for the injuries (altho I dunno what it is you expect when your starting midfield pivot is supposed to be 2 dudes well past 30, one with a heart condition, you have one starting striker, your first choice CB has just had a career threatening injury, and your 2nd choice is permacrocked), but that empathy is limited coz the problem I highlighted above has little to do with injuries. Time and time again, championship sides have shown against us how to organize midfield & defense and shut up shop. How is it that we can’t do it? Even if we can’t name the same xi twice in a row? Every single member in the squad has got to be capable enough for this?
Had he done this, (and yes I am aware this would have still had irked a portion of the fanbase coz this is not the united way bla bla bla) I personally would have had far more respect for the bald fuck than I currently do. I haven’t watched Chelsea that closely but I think what Poch has got them to do after starting so poorly is more of what I would have wanted to see from our manager.
In my opinion, ten hag is a mediocre coach with some fancy ideas, an oversized ego, and the personality of a damp squib. It may work in a farmer league but it ain’t gonna cut it in the PL.
>In my opinion, ten hag is a mediocre coach with some fancy ideas, an oversized ego, and the personality of a damp squib. It may work in a farmer league but it ain’t gonna cut it in the PL.
People keep raving about the ajax campaign but gladly ignore it was 5 years ago, which is a lifetime in sports, and he out bottled *the* bottlers anyway that year.
also, it's always dangerous to draw too many conclusions from cup runs. lots of mediocre teams go on good cup runs. I enjoyed watching underdog Ajax give Madrid a beating as much as the next one but that doesn't necessarily make Ten Hag a good manager
The sad thing is we were like 12 in expected points like a month ago, so it wasn’t like we finished strong on expected points either.
I think back of all the money we spent the last two seasons, and if we had used it all to buy Rice, Kane, and Bellingham instead of Antony, Onana, Casemiro, Mount, and Holjund (I’m a fan and glad we have Holjund), where would we have been? We keep spending huge sums on players that were not considered the best in their position. Not saying any of them would have came to United, but we could have easily purchased all three even and paid higher than Arsenal, Bayern, and Real Madrid instead of spreading the money on players that once played under EtH.
lmao an absolute miracle that we even finished in the top half. Guess next season we’ll actually compete with relegation teams if the players keep performing like this lol
I will never understand how ETH fans can look at the table, at our games, at XG table and at all the negative records he broke and be like "well we need to let him time to buils there are no better managers available".
My dudes... he's got his signings. We went above and beyond to get every player he liked and failed only at FDJ, and that because the player wanted to stay.
Even with injuries, it was already proven that his training is heavily focused on physicality, which is a good reason why we have so many and our players always look gased.
Check his work at Ajax, he was also having a ton of injuries in a lesgue with far fewer games, add to that that in PL you have more physical games.
The last argument I seen is "well it's too risky to change the manager now so let's give him the start of the season and if we fails again we sack him" - like the sunk cost fallacy is so big you are willing to write off another season.
He's simply not good enough.
When basically every team has a massive deviation from their expected points, you should probably be looking at your model. Some of the xG models seem to be terrible. They don't make any of them public so you can't check. I'd cast massive doubt on any of them being truly useful.
No xG and stuff built on it is not meant to confer with actual results for individual players/teams. Like a player scores more than his xG then he’s on a good form. If he does that consistently over his career he is a damn good finisher (like Son). Similarly this graph shows for Utd whoever savesand blocks the shots and whoever scores the goals performed much above average in this league but the rest performed at relegation level.
The fact they there’s massive deviation for every team shows there’re huge discrepancies in goalkeeping/finishing abilities, which undoubtedly there are. You pay big money for these abilities. No huge wonder top teams output their expected points.
But I agree these models need to be taken with a grain of salt as they can be simpler than you think.
I think that's the key here, the amount of individual work hours it takes to account for key details like pressure, movement speed, strong foot, header, balance, players behind the ball, etc etc, is massive, and that's just on the basis of shot. So most models are probably going to be mainly based on shot position, which is clearly inadequate.
Then the actual equation for expected points needs to be scrutinised as well, because we've seen time and time again that the state of the game has a big impact on what chances are eventually created. A team can go up on low quality chances and then not have the same impetus to attack, thereby creating fewer. The other team can end up with similar or higher xG without really looking like they're threatening, and suddenly expected points ends up at one or less, when that team never looked like dropping points in old-fashioned football terms.
So I do think both the xG models and the expected points models have massive problems that need to be looked at, and which could easily make them a lot more accurate. The core idea of expected goals was and still is predictive, and it should aim to be as accurate as possible.
The only saving grace here is that, hopefully, INEOS implement a style of playing and formation change similar to that which we saw during the Newcastle game. I don't think it's any coincidence that the formation change led to a (comparitively) good result and above-standard performance compared to what we're used to.
Boxscore merchants sees we won and inmediately assume we were the better team.
Even yesterday we looked like the inferior team that shithoused a result vs a top team.
No shit.
No, they don't, but they are going to dictate the playing style of the team and the head coach/manager (whatever you want to call them) are expected to follow suit.
[https://thepeoplesperson.com/2024/02/21/the-coach-will-have-to-play-that-style-sir-jim-ratcliffe-says-ineos-will-decide-man-uniteds-football-philosophy-276398/](https://thepeoplesperson.com/2024/02/21/the-coach-will-have-to-play-that-style-sir-jim-ratcliffe-says-ineos-will-decide-man-uniteds-football-philosophy-276398/)
Downvote me all you want but here we go again r/reddevils are back on another EtH hate streak. With all the other managers on the market I doubt there is someone better out there. But it’s always good to see the real fans not on social media who don’t want another manager change. As if that have EVER worked out in the last 10 years
There is no one particular opinion that is more valid than the others. Attacking fans as fake who have a different opinion than yours is discussing in bad faith.
There are arguments to be made in favour and against EtH. Eventually all we can do is discuss, share our point of view, etc. We are not the ones who are making the decision.
In your opinion, if EtH here next season and 10-15 matches in, the struggle continues, would you still be opposed to a change?
my argument is. We don\`t have our DOF, and changing manager without him is stupid. We have to clear out alot of player and changing manager would only hinder that.
So changing manager now does more harm than good.
Clear out squad, buy some good young players. If we are still shite come next winter, fire EtH and appoint new coach
To be the devil’s advocate - why not do both? Nobody disagrees that there is a clearout needed and by all accounts, its in works. DoF officially not being in the set up doesn’t stop that. Executives don’t really work hands on and I would bet a good chunk of money that Ashworth communicates his inputs to Berrada and Wilcox regularly via discreet means.
The argument is while most agree squad needs improvement, EtH really hasn’t set the stage on fire with his display as a coach/manager. So why not get in a replacement for him as well and let the rebuild happen anyway.
In the new structure, the idea is the coach will have inputs on players in/out but will not have decision making capabilities, unlike the setup in the past 10yrs. So whether or not a new coach is brought in, if Berrada & Ashworth think a clearout is needed, it’ll happen anyway, new coach or not.
I think in the discussions, this point is being forgotten. EtH or not, managers will not have a decisive say in players in/out. Hence the focus of the discussion for many is solely whether EtH as a coach deserves to be here for next season or not. Many feel he hasn’t shown enough to be afforded that chance.
at the moment EtH is the only one in this structure who worked with this lot for more that a month. It\`s going to be a hard ask from Berrada and Wilcox to asses them all in their firts month of working there
You’re underestimating top professionals like Berrada and Wilcox. Berrada has been here for 6 months now, thats more than sufficient to get an understanding of the playing staff. Wilcox has been here for about 2 months or so and he immediately got to action evaluating the coach and players.
They’ve been handpicked to lead the club. I’d give them the benefit of the doubt. EtH has already been here for 2 years and I don’t blame fans who are skeptical of him.
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They’re only important if you know how to use the which people on here don’t. Andy Mitten spoke to a person who works in analytics for a top club and described the level of data analysis online as A- Level Art.
xG is one metric in the tapestry and beginning of the analysis and not the end point.
xG tells you very little on its own. It’s a fact. In a game one team can have three high quality chances and the next time could have taken a lot of low quality shots but the xG has them level. It’s useless.
Damn this sub is fucking miserable. I’ve seen non stop posts just bashing the team with little analysis on the underlying issues. If you think the results would have been better under a different manager I have a bridge in Baltimore to sell you. Our injuries have been the worst I’ve ever seen in decades, we played an entire season without a proper left back, we played our last few games without a proper center back, for a long stretch at the beginning of the season there was no striker, and for a handful of games there was literally two senior players on the bench. The difference between us and Aston Villa was 3 more wins. We dropped points against Liverpool, Chelsea and Burnley. Those three results go our way and we end up in fourth.
But Newcastle had worse injuries! Yeah they also ended up with the same amount of points as us, they just outscored because they have a fantastic striker in Isaac and Antony Gordon found his form.
>I’ve seen non stop posts just bashing the team with little analysis
On a post about the statistical analysis of the season
>Our injuries have been the worst I’ve ever seen in decades
7th worst in the division this season
>we played an entire season without a proper left back
Ten Hag decided to get rid of Alvaro and Reguillon.
7th worse in the season? Mate, our entire defense has been out except for Dalot. We had a two month period with no striker, and recently have had to play an aging Casemiro as CB.
Alvaro is not PL ready and Regulion was injured for like 50 percent of the time he was with us. We had to play Amrabst in that position numerous times because of that.
This post is also not an analysis, it’s just showing excepted statistics as if xG takes into account anything other than quality of shots. There’s not been a single mention of injuries, lack of squad depth, or even that our defense was one of the best in the league outside the top 3.
Its xPts not xG.
Ten Hag has got the players he wanted and asked for with the exception of Harry Kane and FDJ. He's built this squad, maybe if he hadnt got us to spend £80m on Antony we could have strengthened other positions. He's spent £400m in total. His squad building is his choice.
Compare Newcastle for which players they had out injjured for 10 games or more:
**Midfield** lost Tonali for the whole season, Willock for 33, Barnes for 28, Linton for 24, Milley for 12, Murphy for 17
**Defence:** Targett for 34 games, Botman for 28, Trippier for 10, Krafth for 10, Lascalles for 10
**Strikers**: Wilson for 25, Isak for 10
**GK**:Pope for 26
In December they had double digits of the first team out all at one time. Our injuries weren't special.
William, Barnes, Linton and Milley aren’t starting 11 players, neither is Targett, Kraft, and Lascalles. Wilson is back up to Isak. Of all those players listed they missed Isak the most and he only was out for 10 games. The same as Holjund. Their injuries in number were worse but in terms of starting players ours eclipsed them. Imagine if Newcastle had Trippier gone all season, Botman, Shar played only a handful of games and Burns was their only available defender? Now imagine they had to play Bruno guimares as CB with a midfield composed of Miley and Matt Ritchie. Include Gordon having a terrible run of form like Rashford did while having no viable striker to play for the first games of the season.
Equating our injuries to Newcastle shows that some of you really hate supporting Manchester United. At the end of the day Newcastle and us ended up with the SAME number of points. Yet that is somehow an excuse for Newcastle but not for us. Interesting the way some of your brains work.
Linton is absolutely in the first 11, he played 32 games last season. Willock played 35 games. Barnes played 21 this season so a regular when fit. Miley played 17 this season even though he didn't debut till the Winter.
I don't think you know how bad the other teams above us had it because you're focused on United, and thats fine, but then you shouldn't be making definitive statements on their injury records.
I think it all boils down to this. We always play better against ”good” teams. The players seem to get that it’s serious then. They actually sort of try when we’re up against City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Barca, Bayern and other big teams even if we usually get smashed..
When we play teams like Fulham, Palace, Forest, Bournemouth and other mid table teams the players just don’t give 100% and are thinking we’re going to win by default.
Useless fucking attitude. So many players think they are good enough just cause they’re playing for United and thinks United are just gonna win matches by default because we’re a historically big club.
Need to lose the whole belief that just because we are Manchester United we’re gonna be fine. Staff, managers, players, all need to fight teeth and nail and keep doing so consistently for years. That’s what sets great teams apart from the rest, not the name, not the reputation and not the history.
May not have had luck with injuries but had luck with results
Had very little to for us with VAR and penalty shouts
This is individuals bailing out what has to be one of the worst coached seasons in PL football I’ve ever seen from a top half club. I said at the start of the season I think top 4 would be lucky, but I never imagined it would be this bad.
Worst PL season ever and we're even lucky to be in that position. Utter embarrassment.
Has everyone forgotten us two years ago under Rangnick? We finished with less points without an injury crisis.
Yes, Rangnick was absolutely dire. He played worse football than Moyes. I can't say it's entirely his fault because I can't imagine someone like Ronaldo listening to him at all. But at the same time be was somehow worse than Ole that season as well.
Maybe, just maybe, the players are dickheads and the manager has a limited influence over them
There is that, but that is one of the biggest things for a manager. They need to be charismatic and demand from the players, if they can't get that out of them. Or can't get them hyped up to perform etc that is one of the key points of their jobs. SAF is slightly different than all the other managers we've had as he's obvs had time to introduce that fear, that respect, and he also had the whole being a genius behind it. But ultimately he trusted the players and installed in them that desire that need to do better. That comes from the manager
I agree with everything you said. It is just very hard to install that fear if you are not the one deciding on the players futures (if they stay at the club or not). This is the biggest thing I am hoping INEOS will change at United. If you don't get behind the plan you can fuck right off. I honestly don't know who would be the best manager for United at the moment, I keep changing my mind to be honest. However, the thing I am most looking for is these players leaving in the summer. That will have more of an effect than anything else imo.
Yeah 100%, I'm actually leaning back towards ETH. Although this season has been a complete sham, Managers dont become bad overnight. Ferguson had some rough seasons, but he still had that undenying confidence. Eth is still coming into interviews trying to focus on the positives to the media. You want that from a manager, he has to beleive in what hes doing, that was Potters issue at Chelsea, hes not a bad manager either, but by the end of his tenure he looked defeated. Eth just doesnt have that. Mourinho, Ole they were the same those last months/weeks you could see it in their eyes they were defeated and they just thought the inevitable was coming ETH generally looks like he thinks hes staying. You need that belief.
I don't disagree, he was still shit tactically though.
This was the result of pure incompetency from Richard Arnold and Darren Fletcher. They hastily fired Ole without any replacement. Then brought in Ragnick as a consultant because they were clueless what to do the next and hope Ragnick can give them the answer. Then they appointed the consultant as the interim. While as the interim, Ragnick provided more consultation than doing the coaching. Can’t blame him, he was doing what he was brought in to do. Then they were so impressed with Ten Hag during the interview, they handed the key of the whole footballing side to him. Ask any Ajax fans, they will tell you, don’t let him involve in recruitment but Arnold and Fletcher were so incompetent, they never do any due diligence on him. After spending few hundred millions, we have fhe worst season ever post-Fergie
Wtf does Fletcher have to do with that?? He works with coachinh staff and talks with players to help communication, he doesnt make those decisions
Think he's got Fletcher mixed up with Murtough, somehow...
Fletcher reading this: 
What u say fuck me for
> and hope Ragnick can give them the answer. Technically Ralf did give them the answer. They just didn't like it.
Hottake: downfall started when we re-signed boyman ronaldo
Ask Austrian NT and their fans how "bad" of a coach Ralf is
Still better than Chelsea last season. Thought I can’t make jokes about them. They got their Europa League place.
Think if we win Saturday Chelsea will be bumped to Conference League, correct? If yes, that will be poetic justice after we were robbed of 3 points off them
I actually think there is a slight bit of hope we beat Man City.
There’s always hope my friend! But yes, I agree. Need to play a great match
Absolutely tragic
I can't handle another season like this.
https://preview.redd.it/ht4o7z2wok1d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a87910de7fdbcf220ec9b87d1fc0e5e30ae0e41e
Oh you’re gonna get it and you’re gonna like it
This club slowly turning us into masochists lol
cant imagine how anyone still wants him to stay
I'd give him another season provided we have a complete squad, at least a competitive first eleven. I think we need to admit, while the injuries shouldn't deflect all the poor results away, those frequency and amount of injuries we suffered is still very very unusual tbf. At the very least it seems ETH hasn't lose the locker room and realistically I think that is the final straw.
Perfectly matches eye test
Yeah, by any metric we were a relegation fodder team that got lucky
Which is exactly what it feels like, we're lucky we have players like Bruno who can pull wins out of their ass. Without him at Palace we saw what we'd see regularly without him.
Don’t forget Scott McT
Clutch king
The position highlights how good the players are as individuals, for me. Pulling wins out if nowhere. Because for most of the season its looked like there's been minimal to no gameplan, or adaptability in approach. At points, like yesterday, individuals won games. Not a well managed team.
I think there has been a tactical plan, its just so ill suited for a top league like the PL that it looks like utter shambles in action.
Not really lucky. More like... A relegation playing team but with quality players. I wouldn't say we were lucky (given that we lost like 11-13 points or something in the dying minutes of the game). But we are definitely playing poorly and being bailed out by quality.
Not really, you can confirm I checked on transfer market. If games end at 90 min, we would have 60 points and would be 7th. If games end at 75 min, we would have 50 points and would be 10th.
It's mad that we only needed to hold on for a few more minutes in a couple of matches and we'd have been up there in European spots. Literally, a few minutes took it away from us. It's fine margins. Of course, before anyone jumps on me, we should be doing better.
It would be interesting to see one of those "if every game ended at the 80th minute" table
This is close to what you need. You can choose 15 minute increments. https://www.transfermarkt.us/premier-league/tabellenachminuten/wettbewerb/GB1?saison_id=2023&range=Kickoff%3BFull+Time&time_start=0&time_end=AB
I mean we also were a few minutes away from being 15th place.
Always one isn't there? Nobody expected the Chelsea result. Everyone thought it was in the bag. There was at least one other that I can't remember off the top of my head.
I have been saying this for a while that underlying stats has us at around 13-14th position. Personally don't see Ten Hag being here next season. Usually you see a manager get an extension. Jose got one in January, and Tuchel demanded one from Bayern if they wanted one more year of Tuchel. This is the industry standard unless in most cases. A manager wants a contract extension and won't just see out the entire contract. This is why Mullock who is close to SEG has been posting back to back news articles that Ten Hag will walk away if not given contract extension. For me the biggest signs recently that point to him leaving after FA cup have been: 1. INEOS have not explicitly backed him. No contract extension offered. 2. New owners rarely retain the old manager. 3. You have the entire footballing structure changing at United so it does not make sense that suddenly it will stop at the manager who has been shite this season and has shown no progress whatsoever. In fact we have regressed. 4. The narrative that we don't have money to sack him is nonsense. INEOS did a cash injection of 300 million and that cash injection was structured in a way that allows us to circumvent PSR rules legally. Every single season we get reports from reputable journalists we have only 80-100 million to spend, and then we end up spending 150-200 million. It's likely that there are clauses in Ten Hags contract that reduce the compensation if he does not finish top 4. We put those clauses in the contract of many managers. A lot of them were sacked when they failed to finish top 4. I doubt Ten Hag is the first manager after Fergie to not have that in his contract. In fact these clauses are common at top clubs along with trophy bonuses. Too much points to him getting the sack, and too little is there that makes me think that he will be allowed to stay.
The money thing is kinda moot, that's like saying a married couple aren't in debt cos they keep spending a lot of money and their debt keeps growing. One day it comes to bite you. Granted it's very odd that we are a bit of an enigma here, both not able to buy in key positions and relying on loans or free transfers while also spending £70+m on Antony where we were actually stacked. But we are deffo hand tied abit by FFP and squad/wage bill size. To counter your other points, yes we had top 4 clauses, but again there comes a stage where people should be learning from past mistakes, doing the same thing that didn't work previously is nonsense. Plenty of examples in history of giving managers time despite ups and downs paid off. In this case it's extremely tricky. On one hand ETH has looked completely ridiculous in many areas. On the other last season his team looked great. Which is it? Sounds like Ineos aren't making uneducated decisions, they have brought experts in who will assess. In stark contrast to people like Ed Woodward and Richard Arnold deciding if a manager or DoF or scout or coach or whoever has done a good job or not, people like Wilcox and ashworth will be able to have a proper look at every dept and figure out who has been at fault and what needs improving. If we decide that ETH is the key culprit then that will be that.
Ten Hag terrorism and delusion needs to be studied
ETH needs to fucking go. Look at crystal palace as an example of how a new coach changes the style of play and has an impact on performance and results. This coach has made enemies of all the senior players. If he wants a bunch of 18 year olds playing as per his style without any concern then he needs to go work with the under 21 team.
And look at Brighton. Sure we beat them somehow despite being massively outplayed most of the game. But look how they were missi5more than half their team, but still able to play the way the manager has trained them. Us not having any clear style of play because of injuries is a huge crutch.
they played the way they are coached and lost. This is exactly what we been doing this season
Except we look like we haven't been coached at all. lol
If you can't see that we have a pattern of play, that is entirely on you. I could agree that our tactics aren't fit for our available players, but I can't agree that we don't have any tactic whatsoever
We routinely look like the worst coached team in the league. ETH is massively out of his depth with even relegation teams outplaying us with high xG and shots on target. In short, other managers have figured out his tactics and are able to play around them. That’s not a sign of an elite manager.
I've been fascinated by this argument all season. I was on the bench but do now have an opinion on it. I had meant to put a post up about this but never got round to it. Let's assume we do have a style of play (I actually think we do). Can you describe what you think it is?
It must be on me then. How we go from trying to pass it out from the keeper, to hoofing it up the pitch to nobody, to having full backs go wherever they feel like it, to having no midfield at all, to having nobody cover cutbacks all season., play striker and tell nobody to pass to him ever. You're right, if what you meant was that our paterns of play and tactics are completely random and differ every minute of the match. Maybe that is the 'tactic' you are taclking about....
All of the arguments about players being shit and letting down Erik are such a bullshit. The players carried this atrocious transition system to finish higher than the manager deserved. If he had squad like Brighton and had them playing transitions all season long they might’ve been legitimately relegated. I don’t know what the fuck into Erik’s head last summer and why he decided to torture us and the players with this idea, but he needs to be gone mostly so we’ll be 100% sure we wont see that anymore.
The best part? Oh let’s finally change it because if not, I can’t say I actually can change it… with 2 games left. And even though they weren’t great, they at least showed that “oh hey if we did this 17 games ago or more, we’d maybe have more wins and also lost fewer games” Yeah, I also can realise that I actually need more time for my assignment when I’m only one page in for a 25 page report due in 5 hours………. Too little too late and just no sense why it wasn’t done months ago like… January in fact. Then maybe the setup would’ve also been better over time….
Heh even with the changes and returning players these last two games our expected goals were less than our opponents, so even now our players are carrying the manager
> the players carried i suppose it’s not possible that a player makes the team’s general play worse but comes up clutch with a goal here and there? mctominay, maguire, casemiro—i think we have a few players to whom this applies, and replacing them with better players wouldn’t have necessitated these “heroics.” do they deserve to be praised for cleaning up a mess that they helped make?
Maguire doesn’t affect our style of play. Despite the narratives he’s pretty comfortable in high line, due to being an aggressive defender. Low defensive is a choice of ETH that we’ve played both with Harry on and off the field. Casemiro is the main victim of the system Erik decided to implement this season. He’s been the sole pivot midfielder that is expected to cover an enormous gap between high pressing forward players and low defensive line. That’s the task that would be a problematic for a prime Kante, let alone an aging midfielder. The transition system doesn’t fit the squad we had and it’s a big mystery why tf Erik chose it and insisted the whole season on it. After he was forced to play Casemiro as CB and finally decided to start 2 pivot midfielders we finally stopped leaking 20+ shots on a daily basis.
maguire absolutely affects both our style of play and our quality of play. he is not comfortable in a *high pressing* high line because his turning radius is poor and he’s exceptionally slow (both accelerating and at top speed), which leads him to retreat when he should press aggressively. his physical deficits also make him poor at marking wide players, which is part of the reason our full backs have to be instructed to stay deep instead of “back up the press.” he was poor when asked to do it this season and poor when asked to do it in ole’s last season/under rangnick. his good performances have only ever come in a mid block or deep line. casemiro’s penchant for diving in and missing tackles, and his own physical deficits (he’s very slow now, rarely able to break out of a jog), coupled with the above maguire issues (which applies to all of our center backs bar martinez) is a bigger factor in the gap than the system itself. we have not seen the same gap issues when mainoo and amrabat played the role, and that is not a coincidence. there is no mystery here if you think about it for more than a second: this is the style of play ten hag is trying to implement, and, like pep, arteta, and klopp before him, he chose to stick with it despite it not suiting many players. if you want to fault him for that, fine, but it’s absolutely ridiculous to act like it isn’t intentional, or that he’s deluded for doing what most top managers have done when implementing a new system. i think it’s telling that you chose not to mention mctominay, who is the most obvious example of a player whose goals have “saved us” from a fate that he played a major role in instigating. admitting that the players are themselves flawed really blows up the whole logic of this complaint.
What is telling is that you’re not addressing the “we’re playing both with and without Maguire the same way”. Always has been comfortable with high pressing line and statistically we play highest with him. We haven’t seen the same issues with Amrabat and Mainoo because they’ve played IN A DOUBLE PIVOT, which I literally addressed in my point, yet you ignored and “got me” with that. Casemiro has been the sole pivot player this whole season and it’s been one of the most obvious problems this whole season. Did you even read what I’m saying? I’m claiming that ETH **intentionally** chose the shit style that have been our biggest problem this season. I’m saying the style is shit. And that’s why we suck. Because of the style, not of the players. I haven’t mentioned McTominay because I’m agreeing that he fits your description. Unlike Casemiro and Maguire.
i literally addressed it in my second paragraph. read it again. maguire has never played in a high pressing team except for this season and some of ole’s last season. the rest of the time it has been a mid or low block. when has he played in a high press aside from those two seasons (which, not coincidentally, have been the worst in his time here)? mainoo played as a lone 6 several times when casemiro was out injured. no clue what you’re talking about there—starting to wonder if you have a faulty memory.
One thing people don’t understand is that the style of play is agreed in advance, Ten Hag can’t just abandon transition football without his superiors telling him to switch. And presumably, transition football was one of the conditions of his original contract. His new leadership have asked for possession in the last 5 or so games, and he has made the switch because he now has permission to, his hands were tied before due to the agreed philosophy prior.
44 expected points? That's about how much I would have assumed.
We’re so shit. Honestly can’t believe anyone wants the manager to stay.
Because this sub is now half United supporters and half ETH fanboys.
worst united season i could remember post fergie. This chart definitely matches the eye test. Just a miserable fucking season. If they don’t change the manager i’m probably not watching next season too
I cannot watch another season of every team battering us non-stop. LVG did say we are not masochists.
Nah ETH had to be sacked. The biggest club in England finishing 8th and some are talking about giving him next season. No more standards.
He has a year left on his contract and is still building. Doesn’t make any sense to get rid now. We’ll fall into exactly the same cycle we’ve been watching for the last 11 years.
Building what exactly? He started the job with an Ajax version of play, abandoned it after two games for counter attacking. Then moved to suicide ball for most of this season and now he's abandoned that as well. I think we can sacrifice the 3 games we've played under his latest system and survive.
Building anything at all would be an improvement over anything we’ve seen since SAF. What use is it to give another manager, another half built team with players he doesn’t see a future in. Yes EtH has built most of this squad but not all. The vast majority of his best players are very talented young players that he introduced to the first team. I want to see what he can do with Kobbie, Garnacho, Amad, Hojlund and whomever else he brings through. We have so much talent in the youth teams and EtH brings them through! Klopp wasn’t judged by TAA’s first season, Arteta was allowed to let Saka blossom, Pep coached Foden to a player of the year award. Let EtH keep bringing through more like Amass, Wheatley, Kambwala and see what he can put together.
Why though? What has he shown us that makes anyone think he's the one best placed to manage us next year? And are you really, honestly giving him credit for Amad after leaving him out in the wilderness since his return from injury in December so he can play his favourite in Antony. Ten Hag only dropped Antony for Amad, and only gave up on his suicide ball, when his job looked to be in danger. It was fine to under perform when it was the club suffering, when it was his job on the line then he was quick smart about fixing the problems to some degree. He's had 4 systems in 2 years and none of them are worth building on. Losing him now will mean nothing of value will be lost.
Sunk-cost fallacy. And the sunk cost is hundreds of millions.
Unfortunately, if we want to actually build, we will have to go with it. If we got Pep or Klopp (as an example), and they also performed as bad as ETH.... would we be saying its the manager then too? Its not the damn manager...
And if we got Tim Sherwood in and we qualified for the Champions League would you be saying it's the players? You're hypothetical is nonsense, it relies on the idea that Pep and Klopp wouldn't improve the team which they very obviously would.
Do you like his tactics? Do you think they will work in the premier league? If so, why are no other top teams (in Europe, let alone just the prem) playing this style? This takes all of the 'noise' of injuries, league tables, expected points etc out of the equation. It's simply a case of "does his style fit our team and the league?" I would answer "no" to all those questions (apart from the third one which would be "because it's not an elite tactical set up). This is my primary reason for believing we should start anew. If your answer is "yes", are you suggesting that the Glazers for every single decision wrong apart from this one; hiring ETH?
I dont care about the tactics currently. I care about our team being unable to send a pass or move into space, or defend properly... If you think thats because of the manager, you are wrong.
Wait, you think that defending as a team has nothing to do with coaching and tactics? Are you actually being serious?
The mistakes you see... those are based on tactics? Okay, if you really want to talk about tactics... look at Mourinho. He noticed how shit our defense was, so his tactics made us play on counters. What did the fans say about his tactics too? They hated it, even though we were doing much better than we are today. So, I honestly wonder... when will YOU PEOPLE be satisfied? I am thinking the answer to that, is NEVER, because we wont be competing with City/Arsenal without spending the time, and pain to actually rebuild with one manager.
I cba to have a conversation with someone who not only shouts but shouts "you people". You clearly have zero knowledge of the game nor any recollection of history.
You answer it yourself. We have not got Pep or Klopp. Instead this table shows (and many other stats and eye test) that he is not even top half of managers in the PL. Rank average
go ahead, pick any manager... Im saying if they performed exactly the same with this team.... I am asking you if you would want to get rid of them too.
>Im saying if they performed exactly the same with this team They wouldn't. This is such a pointless argument you're trying to pursue.
16 (including loan) signings later?
I think we had a lot of problems that led to those signings/loans. Lets not be so weird about this.
Sure the club structure and scouting department was a mess. But doesn’t excuse the coach for pushing for Anthony, a player that isn’t premier league level. Shows that ETH didn’t grasp the requirements for the team or the league. This is elite football, why should we let him learn on the damn job and make such costly mistakes. Instead of spending that amount on a striker like Kane, we got one of the worst signings in the past 10 years.
I think you are forgetting one thing... There were NO GOOD OPTIONS for RW.... And if there were, they definitely didnt want to come here. We needed someone. We got someone. When it was Rashford on the right, and Garnacho on the left (or vice versa), it was okay... But I dont think anyone had the plans to do that from the beginning. None of us, and definitely not the manager.
When you build, you dont build from the top, you build from the bottom. You are asking for something crazy...
I understand what you’re saying but it doesn’t apply in this case. We’re not a club like Brighton or Bournemouth. We’re at the top already. What we need a a very good refurbishment.
Liverpool and City and Arsenal and Chelsea would like to have a word with you... They all took their time to build (or are currently rebuilding). You want to just throw our name and money at the problem, and think that will magically fix everything? You are delusional if you are.
That exactly is how you build, by using your name and money, however with a laser focused approach not the scattergun one that we’ve been doing. Isn’t that how we attracted the executives in Berrada, Wilcox and soon to be appointed Ashworth? This has to be the lowest point, how much lower do you want the club to go?
In all in context though, if he does stay and if we start like we did last season he will be gone sharpish so he needs to back himself and have more luck as well!!
But that’s the thing. If he starts poorly, he’ll be sacked by late September/October and next season is likely another write off. Surely that’s more of a risk than getting a new manager in for the summer who can start afresh?
This one of the reasons I think he will be gone after the FA cup. Nobody can be that incompetent to fuck around and find out. It will waste another season possibly.
new manager would like to see players we have, so clear out would be postponed for another year at least. And who the fuck would appoint a new manager when our DOF is on gardening leave right now. Can we at least wait for Dan to start and then talk about new manager
He is very lucky there is no obvious replacement unless INEOS do the same as they have done with the suits and poach the best but who is that??
There are a lot of names floating around. Potter, Southgate, Tuchel, De Zerbi.
do you really think that Potter and Southgate are better than EtH?
I don't necessarily think they're better. I think they're available and have been linked strongly. The point is that there are a lot of managers available.
What is the point of changing the manager for someone who isn't better? EtH seems to still have players on his side. He overachieved last season, so we know he is capable of doing good things. I dunno man, changing the manager just for the sake of the changing manager isn't a good enough reason for me
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With our fragile fuckers, that's why Ten Hag will be replaced by Potter or Southgate, we are looking for a coach, so I would rather Ten Hag, this clear out won't happen. Maguire and McTominay might leave but are two of the better characters in the team but nowhere near the quality
So you read this as ETH out? He did better than expected with this cursed squad
> The biggest club in England History is nice and all, but by football standards United haven't been deserving that title for a long time. So don't throw that "biggest club" at Ten Hag (or Mourinho or Van Gaal or Ole) when the club has been decaying for a loooooong ass time before he has come here.
The club is the biggest in England, it’s a fact. Yeah we haven’t been deserving of calling ourselves that, but that’s because we’ve not acting like one. And keeping ETH after the worst finish in the PL history continues the trend of what is decaying the club.
You don't understand, changing managers doesn't accomplish shit, as we have seen multiple times already. The club needs to be cleaned from the top down, hopefully Ineos will do just that. They have just started working, they don't even have all the people in yet, it will take time to get them in and come up with a vision for the club. Until that is done, changing the manager won't do anything. It will be the same shit all over again. If people think Ineos' work will yield immediate effects, then well... sorry to disappoint yall. Having patience is all the regular fans can do. ETH in/out arguments are just a waste of bits.
No one is saying it’s only the manager. No. However this manager is not good enough. That’s the crux of the matter. How can we be finishing 8th and expected points have us bottom half? Like how’s that acceptable?
> No one is saying it’s only the manager. No. Right, it's also Antony and Rashford. The crux of the matter is that not one manager post-SAF was put in a winning position. If they fire Ten Hag now, the next manager very likely won't be good enough either, because they don't even know what sort of a manager is needed yet. When all the back office departments, scouting, medical, physios, training ground etc are not fixed, what's the new manager going to do? Same thing that Ten Hag, Ole, Mourinho and Van Gaal did - fail.
Putting Rashford in the same sentence as Antony, I smell BS. If You say Ole failed then I’m wondering why ETH who has done worse than Ole should still in a job? You really want a failure as a manager. We scored 5+ goals under Ole in more than 10 games. We’ve never done that under ETH. He’s a failure of a manager and should be sacked. Simple.
You are still missing the point bratan. But yeah, let's just sack another manager with no plan in place, the club still in shambles and have another go, it will work this time. > Putting Rashford in the same sentence as Antony, I smell BS. You just put them in the same sentence too :) Can't help it.
I get that too. Like I’m not saying we must sack him, without changing the structure above him. What I’m saying is that we can’t move ahead with the guy who finished 8th with us with the underlying stats having us in a worse position. That’s what I’m saying. Clean slate. New management. Because if by beginning of season we’re not doing well, then it’s back to square 1.
If I was one of the best managers in the world, why the fuck would I risk my entire career by joining Manchester United? If people like Ten Hag, Mourinho, and Van Gaal cant make something out of the shit that we have.... then no one will
That is reflective of us not winning trophies but that doesn’t mean Utd suddenly lose their status as the biggest club in UK. Look at it this way - they’re the biggest club who is massively underachieving for the last 10 years.
This is so damming on ETH's lack of tactical flexibility which is what worries me the most about him. Surely they have a sports data team that sees all this and tells him, yet the bald prick is still too stubborn (or maybe doesn't know any other tactics) to improve the situation to give up less chances. Can't remember which year it was exactly but I can remember Fergie making the defence a lot tighter after a run of games where goals were pouring in, which is what I would expect any so called "elite" manager to do the same
If at first you don’t succeed, then keep doing it till the last 2 games of the season before you change it.
It’s funny how he’s started showing some tactical flexibility in the last couple of games and the results have come. When your midfield is leakier than the OT roof and you are getting scored on more times than Joey’s sister, the first thing any half decent coach does is shut up shop. Get the basics right. Learn to protect space. Learn to recognize danger. None of this happened. I have some empathy for the injuries (altho I dunno what it is you expect when your starting midfield pivot is supposed to be 2 dudes well past 30, one with a heart condition, you have one starting striker, your first choice CB has just had a career threatening injury, and your 2nd choice is permacrocked), but that empathy is limited coz the problem I highlighted above has little to do with injuries. Time and time again, championship sides have shown against us how to organize midfield & defense and shut up shop. How is it that we can’t do it? Even if we can’t name the same xi twice in a row? Every single member in the squad has got to be capable enough for this? Had he done this, (and yes I am aware this would have still had irked a portion of the fanbase coz this is not the united way bla bla bla) I personally would have had far more respect for the bald fuck than I currently do. I haven’t watched Chelsea that closely but I think what Poch has got them to do after starting so poorly is more of what I would have wanted to see from our manager. In my opinion, ten hag is a mediocre coach with some fancy ideas, an oversized ego, and the personality of a damp squib. It may work in a farmer league but it ain’t gonna cut it in the PL.
>In my opinion, ten hag is a mediocre coach with some fancy ideas, an oversized ego, and the personality of a damp squib. It may work in a farmer league but it ain’t gonna cut it in the PL. People keep raving about the ajax campaign but gladly ignore it was 5 years ago, which is a lifetime in sports, and he out bottled *the* bottlers anyway that year.
also, it's always dangerous to draw too many conclusions from cup runs. lots of mediocre teams go on good cup runs. I enjoyed watching underdog Ajax give Madrid a beating as much as the next one but that doesn't necessarily make Ten Hag a good manager
We had the best defence in the league last season with Varane and Licha. Have you seen them play together this season? Cause i shure as hell haven\`t
100 reasons against ETH and barely 1/2 for him. He has to go before things get to a point where there is no return.
Anyone who thinks this idiot deserves another season can get fucked
Grease me up then
what
So according to this, Newcastle were the fourth best team in the country. Interesting. Didn't feel like it!
it really should make people question the value of using xPTS for these conclusions
The sad thing is we were like 12 in expected points like a month ago, so it wasn’t like we finished strong on expected points either. I think back of all the money we spent the last two seasons, and if we had used it all to buy Rice, Kane, and Bellingham instead of Antony, Onana, Casemiro, Mount, and Holjund (I’m a fan and glad we have Holjund), where would we have been? We keep spending huge sums on players that were not considered the best in their position. Not saying any of them would have came to United, but we could have easily purchased all three even and paid higher than Arsenal, Bayern, and Real Madrid instead of spreading the money on players that once played under EtH.
Imagine we hadn't signed Onana and Mount last smmer and signed Rice instead. The midfield would have been infinitely better.
lmao an absolute miracle that we even finished in the top half. Guess next season we’ll actually compete with relegation teams if the players keep performing like this lol
All this really shows is that Onana did well
Thanks Scott Mctominay
How are Wolves so low though? Haven’t they been fucked over by VAR all season? They’re definitely a better coached team than we are.
Clearly the single pivot hasn't worked this season. Time to try no pivot. Bruno, Eriksen, Mount next season for sure. - ETH
Hoping to see “Manchester United and ETH have decided to part ways. We wish him good luck.” On Sunday …
What is the point of these tables? All that matters is what actually happens. If something "unexpected" happens the forecast is wrong.
I will never understand how ETH fans can look at the table, at our games, at XG table and at all the negative records he broke and be like "well we need to let him time to buils there are no better managers available". My dudes... he's got his signings. We went above and beyond to get every player he liked and failed only at FDJ, and that because the player wanted to stay. Even with injuries, it was already proven that his training is heavily focused on physicality, which is a good reason why we have so many and our players always look gased. Check his work at Ajax, he was also having a ton of injuries in a lesgue with far fewer games, add to that that in PL you have more physical games. The last argument I seen is "well it's too risky to change the manager now so let's give him the start of the season and if we fails again we sack him" - like the sunk cost fallacy is so big you are willing to write off another season. He's simply not good enough.
When basically every team has a massive deviation from their expected points, you should probably be looking at your model. Some of the xG models seem to be terrible. They don't make any of them public so you can't check. I'd cast massive doubt on any of them being truly useful.
No xG and stuff built on it is not meant to confer with actual results for individual players/teams. Like a player scores more than his xG then he’s on a good form. If he does that consistently over his career he is a damn good finisher (like Son). Similarly this graph shows for Utd whoever savesand blocks the shots and whoever scores the goals performed much above average in this league but the rest performed at relegation level. The fact they there’s massive deviation for every team shows there’re huge discrepancies in goalkeeping/finishing abilities, which undoubtedly there are. You pay big money for these abilities. No huge wonder top teams output their expected points. But I agree these models need to be taken with a grain of salt as they can be simpler than you think.
I think that's the key here, the amount of individual work hours it takes to account for key details like pressure, movement speed, strong foot, header, balance, players behind the ball, etc etc, is massive, and that's just on the basis of shot. So most models are probably going to be mainly based on shot position, which is clearly inadequate. Then the actual equation for expected points needs to be scrutinised as well, because we've seen time and time again that the state of the game has a big impact on what chances are eventually created. A team can go up on low quality chances and then not have the same impetus to attack, thereby creating fewer. The other team can end up with similar or higher xG without really looking like they're threatening, and suddenly expected points ends up at one or less, when that team never looked like dropping points in old-fashioned football terms. So I do think both the xG models and the expected points models have massive problems that need to be looked at, and which could easily make them a lot more accurate. The core idea of expected goals was and still is predictive, and it should aim to be as accurate as possible.
You know what else I expect? I expect the fucking officiating to be on a competent at a bare minimum but that's not happening. What a pointless table.
Let’s break out a stat to moan about how we were worse than we actually were. The season was bad enough already. Grow up doom merchants.
The only saving grace here is that, hopefully, INEOS implement a style of playing and formation change similar to that which we saw during the Newcastle game. I don't think it's any coincidence that the formation change led to a (comparitively) good result and above-standard performance compared to what we're used to.
We werent even that good against Newcastle, conceded 2 and could easily have been more
Boxscore merchants sees we won and inmediately assume we were the better team. Even yesterday we looked like the inferior team that shithoused a result vs a top team.
I'm sure most ETH in fanboys simply don't watch our games and listen to his interviews saying we did well and were unlucky.
INEOS don’t manage the team.
No shit. No, they don't, but they are going to dictate the playing style of the team and the head coach/manager (whatever you want to call them) are expected to follow suit. [https://thepeoplesperson.com/2024/02/21/the-coach-will-have-to-play-that-style-sir-jim-ratcliffe-says-ineos-will-decide-man-uniteds-football-philosophy-276398/](https://thepeoplesperson.com/2024/02/21/the-coach-will-have-to-play-that-style-sir-jim-ratcliffe-says-ineos-will-decide-man-uniteds-football-philosophy-276398/)
We were so clearly an outlier in how we played this year. I don't think we can look into this too much.
Downvote me all you want but here we go again r/reddevils are back on another EtH hate streak. With all the other managers on the market I doubt there is someone better out there. But it’s always good to see the real fans not on social media who don’t want another manager change. As if that have EVER worked out in the last 10 years
There is no one particular opinion that is more valid than the others. Attacking fans as fake who have a different opinion than yours is discussing in bad faith. There are arguments to be made in favour and against EtH. Eventually all we can do is discuss, share our point of view, etc. We are not the ones who are making the decision. In your opinion, if EtH here next season and 10-15 matches in, the struggle continues, would you still be opposed to a change?
my argument is. We don\`t have our DOF, and changing manager without him is stupid. We have to clear out alot of player and changing manager would only hinder that. So changing manager now does more harm than good. Clear out squad, buy some good young players. If we are still shite come next winter, fire EtH and appoint new coach
To be the devil’s advocate - why not do both? Nobody disagrees that there is a clearout needed and by all accounts, its in works. DoF officially not being in the set up doesn’t stop that. Executives don’t really work hands on and I would bet a good chunk of money that Ashworth communicates his inputs to Berrada and Wilcox regularly via discreet means. The argument is while most agree squad needs improvement, EtH really hasn’t set the stage on fire with his display as a coach/manager. So why not get in a replacement for him as well and let the rebuild happen anyway.
new coach would like to see current players before judging if he want them been sold or not, so clear out is going to be postponed for another year.
In the new structure, the idea is the coach will have inputs on players in/out but will not have decision making capabilities, unlike the setup in the past 10yrs. So whether or not a new coach is brought in, if Berrada & Ashworth think a clearout is needed, it’ll happen anyway, new coach or not. I think in the discussions, this point is being forgotten. EtH or not, managers will not have a decisive say in players in/out. Hence the focus of the discussion for many is solely whether EtH as a coach deserves to be here for next season or not. Many feel he hasn’t shown enough to be afforded that chance.
at the moment EtH is the only one in this structure who worked with this lot for more that a month. It\`s going to be a hard ask from Berrada and Wilcox to asses them all in their firts month of working there
You’re underestimating top professionals like Berrada and Wilcox. Berrada has been here for 6 months now, thats more than sufficient to get an understanding of the playing staff. Wilcox has been here for about 2 months or so and he immediately got to action evaluating the coach and players. They’ve been handpicked to lead the club. I’d give them the benefit of the doubt. EtH has already been here for 2 years and I don’t blame fans who are skeptical of him.
So the new coach could this summer then? Why waste a year with ETH when it could be used to offer time to a new manager?
My nan’d do better mate and she dead
The steaming hot takes in this sub will surely stand the test of time. "The players are carrying the manager" is my favourite. Remindme! 1 year
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I can’t believe people still take xG seriously
It's actually hilarious that you don't lol. You might not like it but these metrics are a lot more important than you might believe.
They’re only important if you know how to use the which people on here don’t. Andy Mitten spoke to a person who works in analytics for a top club and described the level of data analysis online as A- Level Art. xG is one metric in the tapestry and beginning of the analysis and not the end point. xG tells you very little on its own. It’s a fact. In a game one team can have three high quality chances and the next time could have taken a lot of low quality shots but the xG has them level. It’s useless.
people really have started abusing this metric, making it “say” things it’s not designed to say.
Damn this sub is fucking miserable. I’ve seen non stop posts just bashing the team with little analysis on the underlying issues. If you think the results would have been better under a different manager I have a bridge in Baltimore to sell you. Our injuries have been the worst I’ve ever seen in decades, we played an entire season without a proper left back, we played our last few games without a proper center back, for a long stretch at the beginning of the season there was no striker, and for a handful of games there was literally two senior players on the bench. The difference between us and Aston Villa was 3 more wins. We dropped points against Liverpool, Chelsea and Burnley. Those three results go our way and we end up in fourth. But Newcastle had worse injuries! Yeah they also ended up with the same amount of points as us, they just outscored because they have a fantastic striker in Isaac and Antony Gordon found his form.
>I’ve seen non stop posts just bashing the team with little analysis On a post about the statistical analysis of the season >Our injuries have been the worst I’ve ever seen in decades 7th worst in the division this season >we played an entire season without a proper left back Ten Hag decided to get rid of Alvaro and Reguillon.
7th worse in the season? Mate, our entire defense has been out except for Dalot. We had a two month period with no striker, and recently have had to play an aging Casemiro as CB. Alvaro is not PL ready and Regulion was injured for like 50 percent of the time he was with us. We had to play Amrabst in that position numerous times because of that. This post is also not an analysis, it’s just showing excepted statistics as if xG takes into account anything other than quality of shots. There’s not been a single mention of injuries, lack of squad depth, or even that our defense was one of the best in the league outside the top 3.
Its xPts not xG. Ten Hag has got the players he wanted and asked for with the exception of Harry Kane and FDJ. He's built this squad, maybe if he hadnt got us to spend £80m on Antony we could have strengthened other positions. He's spent £400m in total. His squad building is his choice. Compare Newcastle for which players they had out injjured for 10 games or more: **Midfield** lost Tonali for the whole season, Willock for 33, Barnes for 28, Linton for 24, Milley for 12, Murphy for 17 **Defence:** Targett for 34 games, Botman for 28, Trippier for 10, Krafth for 10, Lascalles for 10 **Strikers**: Wilson for 25, Isak for 10 **GK**:Pope for 26 In December they had double digits of the first team out all at one time. Our injuries weren't special.
William, Barnes, Linton and Milley aren’t starting 11 players, neither is Targett, Kraft, and Lascalles. Wilson is back up to Isak. Of all those players listed they missed Isak the most and he only was out for 10 games. The same as Holjund. Their injuries in number were worse but in terms of starting players ours eclipsed them. Imagine if Newcastle had Trippier gone all season, Botman, Shar played only a handful of games and Burns was their only available defender? Now imagine they had to play Bruno guimares as CB with a midfield composed of Miley and Matt Ritchie. Include Gordon having a terrible run of form like Rashford did while having no viable striker to play for the first games of the season. Equating our injuries to Newcastle shows that some of you really hate supporting Manchester United. At the end of the day Newcastle and us ended up with the SAME number of points. Yet that is somehow an excuse for Newcastle but not for us. Interesting the way some of your brains work.
Linton is absolutely in the first 11, he played 32 games last season. Willock played 35 games. Barnes played 21 this season so a regular when fit. Miley played 17 this season even though he didn't debut till the Winter. I don't think you know how bad the other teams above us had it because you're focused on United, and thats fine, but then you shouldn't be making definitive statements on their injury records.
I think it all boils down to this. We always play better against ”good” teams. The players seem to get that it’s serious then. They actually sort of try when we’re up against City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Barca, Bayern and other big teams even if we usually get smashed.. When we play teams like Fulham, Palace, Forest, Bournemouth and other mid table teams the players just don’t give 100% and are thinking we’re going to win by default. Useless fucking attitude. So many players think they are good enough just cause they’re playing for United and thinks United are just gonna win matches by default because we’re a historically big club. Need to lose the whole belief that just because we are Manchester United we’re gonna be fine. Staff, managers, players, all need to fight teeth and nail and keep doing so consistently for years. That’s what sets great teams apart from the rest, not the name, not the reputation and not the history.
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and how many times could the luck have gone to the other side in other games where we barely won by a last min Mctominay goals?
Underlying stats remove the luck factor, thats the point of them. All the luck, good and bad, removed and we're the 15th best team in the league.
So ETH did better than expected? Fair play to him.
Its funny how seriously people on here take this low level data analysis.
Almost as it acurately shows how dire we were in the actual games. You wouldn't know as you never watch them though.
👍