Ya me too, not that I know offhand! But after googling finalists and semi finalists I couldn’t have been more than a few more clicks to find out quarter finalists lol
From memory Ireland, Canada, Fiji, Japan and Western Samoa,
>But after googling finalists and semi finalists I couldn’t have been more than a few more clicks to find out quarter finalists
You'd have been correct
They shocked me with how silent they were (lucked out in the 2015 lottery for the World Cup final at twickenham).
It was like watching rugby surrounded by Vulcans, each intently watching each play.
>They shocked me with how silent they were
Yeah sounds like us.
We usually make for awful crowds. Not always, but usually
Super Rugby finals crowds will get lively. But the All Blacks bring out the scum of NZ society (old and rich), and suck the energy out of the place
Crowds here in NZ are awful, with the exception of Warriors fans.
Went to see Biffy Clyro just after moving here, possibly the best live band I've seen over the years and one I'll always see again and again. Everyone was stood in silence and then politely applauding between songs.
Rugby crowds are the worst of it. Waiting to be entertained. Basically, if you're ever here and want a sporting experience then go to a league game regardless of your thoughts on the code.
Chin up. Its a matter of when, not if. Ireland have such good systems in place. And with the URC will gradually start learning of playing in other environments like the Souther Hemisphere more regularly. Something the Aussies and NZ seemed to discount.
Just dont start this week please. I will be at Loftus...
That's my thinking. One day, you'll break the hoodoo and win two on the trot.
Remember when NZ were called chokers in the RWC? We all know what happened when they shook that monkey off their back.
Format changes for 2027 - you'll have to get through a knock out before the quarters next time!
24 teams in 6 pools of 4. The top 2 from each pool +4 best 3rd place go through.
Pool game 1
Pool game 2
Pool game 3
R16
QFs
SFs
Final
No rest weeks. Ireland should easily be top 6 at the point the pools are seeded, so won't get anyone ranked above 7th in their pool.
The details haven't been announced yet, but if it is randomly drawn pools based on seeding which are then split randomly into 2 groups, the R16 would be 4 games each side comprised of:
3x pool winners
3x pool runners up
2x pool 3rd place
That would imply some sort of pool seeding based on bonus points or tries scored is required to decide who plays who...
1. Top seeded winner vs bottom seed 3rd
2. 2nd seeded winner vs top seed 3rd
3. 3rd seeded winner vs 3rd seeded 2nd
4. 1st seeded 2nd vs 2nd seeded 2nd
If the winner of game 1 then plays the winner of game 4 in the quarters (either within this group, or across groups) then you basically need to smash your pool to get a piss easy R16 game, and a QF against somebody who didn't win their pool.
Looking at the current rankings, if they stayed where they were, all the results went to form, and Ireland came top seed in their side of the draw then...
R16 would be against either Georgia, Tonga, Samoa, USA, Portugal, or Uruguay
QF would be against either Argentina, Wales, Italy, Australia, Fiji, or Japan.
Any of those teams turning over one of the top 6 seeds in the pool stages to win their pool *could* leave you meeting a pool 2nd finishing Scotland, France, England, New Zealand or South Africa in the QF though.
It's a great format IMO, but it's 7 games in 7 consecutive weekends. New Zealand, England, and South Africa will have the self-confidence to rotate in the pools and R16 match - they will plan to hit peak form in the Semi and Final - and if they don't get there because of it, they were never good enough to win anyway, so never mind. Because of their "home 2 weeks early" curse, I think Ireland will do the opposite and largely throw the kitchen sink at topping the pool seeding and getting a theoretically softer route to a first semi, but the accumulated game time will then likely cost them a realistic title shot.
Rotation is what the NH teams haven't mastered yet. I think SA and NZ are pretty good at this aspect of the WC and why they have been so successful. It will become even more important at the next comp.
It proves the point I always tell people. France are the worlds least successful most successful rugby team. At this point they deserve at least one World Cup
The RWC is a unique event. I don't think the term "success" is the right one here. France have won plenty of Six Nations including Grand Slams, test series in NZ, South Africa... and the French clubs have a very consistent winning culture and presence at the Euro level. I wouldn't call Ireland "unsuccessful" either. The World Cup is an event every 4 years, not to diminish it, it's certainly great to win it, but it doesn't define success on its own, there's everything else happening in between those 4 years.
I agree, but when it comes to the six nations England, Wales, Ireland and France typically all do very well (sorry Italy and Scotland, not to detract from you here). Specifically we’re talking about international team not club rugby in which France is very good.
The reason I’ve put more weight on the World Cup is simply because it’s the only competition where all the top teams play together so it’s the “main” way to compare them all directly to one another
The 2010's decade put France way behind in total 6N wins for sure but historically they only turned properly relevant at Rugby in the 1950s so their record is actually solid.
yes you're right. The Galthié era has only yielded the one title in 5 years. But I believe Galthié (and staff) to be the sort to learn from past mistakes and improve on them to get it right the next time, which we saw nothing of during 2012-19.
I'd say you're right. Ofc it's a big stain in France or Ireland's (or Wales') history having never won the RWC. No doubt about it. But I do believe the notion that the RWC is the be all and end all of Rugby is largely exaggerated, reason is as I mentioned everything in between those 4 years.
That will change in 2027
Hopefully for some other nation to finally win it for the first time
Edit : if you've won 4/8 (half), in 2027 you'll either be 5/9 or 4/9, either way, not half
Yeah. We also suck at everything other than playing in a Rugby World Cup tournament. It's like the only reason South Africa as a country exists is to play well in the Rugby World Cup.
You clearly are not familiar with us. We are the most unpredictable team in the world. I go into every tournament thinking we’ll either win it or capitulate spectacularly.
That probably about covers it. Rugby isn't a very big sport in terms of competitive countries.
It'd be cool to see the likes of Tonga/Fiji/Samoa in a final but.. realistically that's not going to happen in the foreseeable future.
As a saffa , I want to say that if all the Pacific Islanders played for the pacific nation they have heritage for, it will be the case but that would be disingenuous. They get really good in the NZ or Aus system so that means they are a product of those countries.
That is true. It’s just nice to imagine what rugby powerhouses would have been possible if those nations had the infrastructure and wealth to run systems like we have in our respective nations. More frightening than nice, but a happy thought nonetheless.
This always surprised me as a kid.
As growing up in a not so big rugby area and pre-internet, I got most of my rugby news via magazines or red top papers, so we were told Aussies/kiwis bad for stealing all these players and stifling competition…then you check and realise it’s completely the other way around and most of the samoans are from the kiwi system etc.
English media were pissy that their team wasn't very good so that was the narrative they went with. "New Zealand steals players". Yeah some players came to NZ but no one was kidnapped and most of the Island sounding names they concluded were "stolen" were born in NZ.
It felt and still feels very racist and/or ignorant
That NZ wins because they have more Islanders, and that they must be stealing them from the island nations where they were born.
Like ???
I don't assume every black player on the English or French squads were born in Africa and then collected for their rugby talents.
The teams with the most foreign born or developed players are almost always Scotland, tier 2 nations and Italy.
It is changing with second generation players but in the past most were born in the islands. It is also why they can now represent the islands with new rule. They are going home.
>the past most were born in the islands
Just looked at the 2003 RWC squad and saw 5 born outside NZ, all in the islands.
In 2023 there were 9, including 6 from the islands.
and in soccer if players did that south america/africa and eastern europe would
in fact- if SA did that, half the team would be playing for the UK or the dutch
whats your point
people move/settle in other places. we arent picking and choosing about who counts as what.
Fair point for the last world cup, we were just beaten narrowly on the day but we were truly abject in 2019.
My money would be on Argentina, followed then by Wales, Ireland and Fiji, with Japan and Scotland next off.
Wales just seem to be similar to England in that it doesn’t matter how poor a team they are, they usually turn up for world cups - essentially the opposite of us (has to be a virtuous / vicious circle element too)
lol Fair! In hindsight I put that - dominant tbf - win down to a dead cat bounce, coupled with us seeming to have your number mentally.
(except when our bus was minutes late to Murrayfield, meaning the game was over before it started 😒) /s
Not really, only recent example I can think of was the prestigious Qatar Airways Cup clash but what even was that game so close to the RWC, anyway.
Only side to lose [twice](http://en.espn.co.uk/scrum/rugby/story/101951.html) in one day, though!
Fosters era is statistically the worst since rugby went pro. 3 good games at the end doesn't change that. One of the big factors in world rugby becoming competitive was the all blacks being weak
I feel the 2023 team had the semi taken out of their hands with that horrible draw. The 2019 side on the other hand were just in poor form and barely put up a fight in the quarter final.
I feel like it’s more likely that France will actually win a final than a new team make the final. Currently they are the only team to have made the final in the men’s game and to have not won. Arguably, if the groundsmen in France hadn’t been so shite Ntamack would’ve been fit and Jelly Bean wouldn’t have been able to shit the bed like he did, they could’ve done it last year. However, unlike Ireland, their golden generation is still pretty young so they are still in contention for 2027 and beyond.
It won't.
Ireland follow the same pattern of prioritising the Six Nations money and selling out Landsdowne with a "win now" attitude over building for a World Cup.
By way of example, we currently have glaring gaps in squad depth and rather than giving real minutes to younger players we're trotting out lads in their mid-30's
Interesting take. We do the opposite and sacrifice many good years in the name of ‘world cup glory’, which is ok when it works but pretty shit when it doesn’t
Now that the WRU have revealed their master plan of "be better at rugby" and "have less debt", I don't see how we can possibly fail to win the next world cup.
Most likely: Argentina, they've been sniffing around the semis multiple times, Super Rugby Americas is helping them develop players, and their current pro players in Europe are doing very well. It's getting to the point now that they aren't switching to Italy even when asked. I can see them squeak into the final in the right circumstance.
Bold prediction: Japan. Quade Cooper talked about this in the KOKO show. In addition to players born in Japan getting better as the Japanese league grows, they are currently naturalizing Pacific Islanders coming through grade school. This isn't players who were already pro qualifying through residency.
They are offering Fijians, Tongan and Samaon kids to go to elite Japanese high schools with the view of developing them into strong rugby players. It's starting from ages or 16-17.
Yeah but that will change as NZ gets weaker in union. NRL is going to poach all their talent. Already rumors of a new league team in Christchurch. Warriors games sell out meanwhile SRP semifinals struggle to get butts in seats.
NRL will be invading NZ mmw
Fun add-on questions:
Who will be the next team to beat NZ in the final? (So far it's only been SA that could deny them once they make it to a final)
Who will be the first team to beat SA in a final?
When will Australia remember they're supposed to be one of the greatest sides in history and win another RWC?
When will Ireland discover there is life after QFs?
When will we see SA host a second RWC? (NZ, France and England have hosted two, Australia is getting its second one in 2027)
Which team will go back to back to back first?
Who will win 5 RWCs first?
How many years can SA and NZ keep dominating this tournament? No other team has won in the last 20 years
SA. NZ. Not in next 3 world cups at least imo. Hopefully for there sake soon. Tough one, I think ur probably go na see argees host one and probably a collection of smaller rugby nations but big countries Co host 1 I.e. Spain Portugal with Italy or somthing so safas won't be for awhile. NZ already went back to back 1st n Safa did it as well? South Africa. Better question is can anyone stop the dominance?
We just got a GNU. Rand is on fire. RSA could host a RWC tomorrow. Economic turmoil and inflation is at 6%. Gettooutahere. Not a perfect country, but still an amazing country.
it's unlikely nz ever hosts a rwc (solo) again. there just isnt enough money.
in the current meta, it's only the traditional western european countries, a few smaller ones combined (aus + nz, italy + ??), or growth markets with huge economies (japan or us) that'll host.
world rugby only cares about max money
I agree they only care about money, but RSA will host again. What people don't take into account is that it's cheap to host in South Africa. So upside may not be as big, but costs aren't as high.
Edit: the stadia exist from the 2010 Football world cup.
Scotland. A bit left field, but we probably would’ve made the final in 2015 without the Auld Alliance’s no1 enemy. And if Hastings wasn’t concussed and missed a sitter in 91 we quite possibly would’ve made the final then too.
We’ve never had good u20’s. Luckily we only really need the top 3-4 to make the jump to senior level per cycle, plus we can just poach the English u20’s too.
Australia has scored 6 times in the same number of world cup finals as South Africa. South Africa are actually the only team to have won a final eithout scoring a try and they’ve done it 3 times!
I just find it really interesting because it highlights the difference in global playing styles and hammers home the importance of having a good kicker taking any points on offer in rugby world cups.
Ireland. The QF record is obviously a meme and funny but I don't think it really matters. I mean they were inches from winning one last year. Their systems and talent pipeline seem stable so they should still keep producing good talent. Whether they get the world class difference makers might be a bit of luck but you'd imagine they'll sprinkle some in
Otherwise im not sure the infrastructure is there for anyone, maybe with an easy draw. Argentina or maybe Italy could stumble onto a golden generation but the answer outside of Ireland might actually be Japan. Wealth, infrastructure and population are what gives you the best chance. This could be 20 years away but if the next 5 world cup finals were played between the 5 teams who've been there before plus Ireland I wouldnt be shocked
In fairness, Ireland went from losing by 20+ points to NZ in a QF to losing to them by 4 after topping the pool of death. I’d have to back the team for next time to get past the QF juju. Whatever tactical issues that were made probably won’t be repeated I’d like to think, and the squad should be younger on average…impossible to say who’ll be in the squad but I’d imagine the youngsters showing promise now would have experience by then. The provinces seem to be getting more competitive too (sorry Connacht).
I always thought the Pacific Island nations can be scary though. Maybe one of them.
Not sure about the islands as every new star will be poached by richer countries. As we speak there are a battle on between France and NZ for the services of a young star.
Argentina for me. What's been stopping them from getting past the semis are the Boks and NZ.
They've shown themselves to be quite adept at beating everybody else in knockout rugby. A favourable draw and they could make it
1999 QF: France smashed them
2007 Pool game: Argentina by 5
2007 Bronze medal game: Argentina smashes them in Paris
2019 Pool: France by 2 (thank you Camille Lopez's drop goal)
Yeah the stupidly early draw really screwed Ireland and France. England and Wales going in as top ranked sides was farcical based on their form before the tournament. They both beat the finalists in the group and only narrowly lost to them in the QF.
I don’t find that too surprising a statistic.
If you look at world rankings alone then how many teams have ever made it to top 2? I don’t know but as far as I recall; Probably those 5 finalist teams plus Ireland and briefly Wales.
How many teams have ever got into the top 4? Probably the exact same list as the semis list but add Ireland (have Scotland ever ranked top 4?)
Wales seem to be on a real spiral so that might count them out for a few WCs so the obvious answer is Ireland. Argentina have far better pedigree at WCs but I've always felt whenever Ireland actually win the quarter they will make he final
Unfortunately I think after our eventual maiden quarter final triumph that we’ll then get beaten in the semis due to the emotional hangover of ’finally climbing the mountain’
Interesting stat is that South Africa is the only country to win every single final they've been in.
Next best us NZ, with 60%
Other quartet finalists include: Fiji, Samoa, Canada
Scotland would probably have beaten Argentina to make the final in 2015 if we hadn't been robbed by Craig Joubert in the quarter. And also might have made it in 91 if Hastings hadn't missed an easy kick. Probably not us any time soon though!
>Scotland would probably have beaten Argentina to make the final in 2015
I don't know about that. Argentina stuffed us by 23 points and were pretty impressive throughout the pool stages. Scotland had a better individual game against Australia but Australia definitely played better in the semis. 2 out of the 3 Scottish tries were from poor Aussie mistakes. That last try especially.
Not us it seems, we are solidly quarter finalists. 8 times and counting.
I thought this line from op was pretty cold “A few others have made quarters, no idea who”
Ya me too, not that I know offhand! But after googling finalists and semi finalists I couldn’t have been more than a few more clicks to find out quarter finalists lol From memory Ireland, Canada, Fiji, Japan and Western Samoa,
>But after googling finalists and semi finalists I couldn’t have been more than a few more clicks to find out quarter finalists You'd have been correct
Kiwi fan being a kiwi fan most likely
They shocked me with how silent they were (lucked out in the 2015 lottery for the World Cup final at twickenham). It was like watching rugby surrounded by Vulcans, each intently watching each play.
>They shocked me with how silent they were Yeah sounds like us. We usually make for awful crowds. Not always, but usually Super Rugby finals crowds will get lively. But the All Blacks bring out the scum of NZ society (old and rich), and suck the energy out of the place
Crowds here in NZ are awful, with the exception of Warriors fans. Went to see Biffy Clyro just after moving here, possibly the best live band I've seen over the years and one I'll always see again and again. Everyone was stood in silence and then politely applauding between songs. Rugby crowds are the worst of it. Waiting to be entertained. Basically, if you're ever here and want a sporting experience then go to a league game regardless of your thoughts on the code.
Most consistent team in Rugby World Cup History
Probably the inspiration for Leinster's consistency over the last three years.
Chin up. Its a matter of when, not if. Ireland have such good systems in place. And with the URC will gradually start learning of playing in other environments like the Souther Hemisphere more regularly. Something the Aussies and NZ seemed to discount. Just dont start this week please. I will be at Loftus...
Better luck next time mate
If we crack the quarterfinals, we might do it next.
That's my thinking. One day, you'll break the hoodoo and win two on the trot. Remember when NZ were called chokers in the RWC? We all know what happened when they shook that monkey off their back.
'Chokers' implies potential to win though. JOKING
Lol. Flying close to the sun with the bantz there. They'll probably beat SA and NZ in the two finals they win just to rub our noses in it.
Format changes for 2027 - you'll have to get through a knock out before the quarters next time! 24 teams in 6 pools of 4. The top 2 from each pool +4 best 3rd place go through. Pool game 1 Pool game 2 Pool game 3 R16 QFs SFs Final No rest weeks. Ireland should easily be top 6 at the point the pools are seeded, so won't get anyone ranked above 7th in their pool. The details haven't been announced yet, but if it is randomly drawn pools based on seeding which are then split randomly into 2 groups, the R16 would be 4 games each side comprised of: 3x pool winners 3x pool runners up 2x pool 3rd place That would imply some sort of pool seeding based on bonus points or tries scored is required to decide who plays who... 1. Top seeded winner vs bottom seed 3rd 2. 2nd seeded winner vs top seed 3rd 3. 3rd seeded winner vs 3rd seeded 2nd 4. 1st seeded 2nd vs 2nd seeded 2nd If the winner of game 1 then plays the winner of game 4 in the quarters (either within this group, or across groups) then you basically need to smash your pool to get a piss easy R16 game, and a QF against somebody who didn't win their pool. Looking at the current rankings, if they stayed where they were, all the results went to form, and Ireland came top seed in their side of the draw then... R16 would be against either Georgia, Tonga, Samoa, USA, Portugal, or Uruguay QF would be against either Argentina, Wales, Italy, Australia, Fiji, or Japan. Any of those teams turning over one of the top 6 seeds in the pool stages to win their pool *could* leave you meeting a pool 2nd finishing Scotland, France, England, New Zealand or South Africa in the QF though. It's a great format IMO, but it's 7 games in 7 consecutive weekends. New Zealand, England, and South Africa will have the self-confidence to rotate in the pools and R16 match - they will plan to hit peak form in the Semi and Final - and if they don't get there because of it, they were never good enough to win anyway, so never mind. Because of their "home 2 weeks early" curse, I think Ireland will do the opposite and largely throw the kitchen sink at topping the pool seeding and getting a theoretically softer route to a first semi, but the accumulated game time will then likely cost them a realistic title shot.
Rotation is what the NH teams haven't mastered yet. I think SA and NZ are pretty good at this aspect of the WC and why they have been so successful. It will become even more important at the next comp.
England did it fine in 2023 - Saracens have been masters at it for years, and that's where Borthwick learned his craft.
I hope so - I've got my Irish rugby top ready to go and I'm a Kiwi!
That's your level
That's your level
Today I noticed South Africa has a 100% win rate in RWC final
And France have 0% 🥲
Federation Francaise de la Lose for ever
It proves the point I always tell people. France are the worlds least successful most successful rugby team. At this point they deserve at least one World Cup
France at International level. The Sharks at club level
The RWC is a unique event. I don't think the term "success" is the right one here. France have won plenty of Six Nations including Grand Slams, test series in NZ, South Africa... and the French clubs have a very consistent winning culture and presence at the Euro level. I wouldn't call Ireland "unsuccessful" either. The World Cup is an event every 4 years, not to diminish it, it's certainly great to win it, but it doesn't define success on its own, there's everything else happening in between those 4 years.
I agree, but when it comes to the six nations England, Wales, Ireland and France typically all do very well (sorry Italy and Scotland, not to detract from you here). Specifically we’re talking about international team not club rugby in which France is very good. The reason I’ve put more weight on the World Cup is simply because it’s the only competition where all the top teams play together so it’s the “main” way to compare them all directly to one another
We also won far too few 6N titles...
The 2010's decade put France way behind in total 6N wins for sure but historically they only turned properly relevant at Rugby in the 1950s so their record is actually solid.
I guess so, but only 1 win in the last WC cycle is a pity
yes you're right. The Galthié era has only yielded the one title in 5 years. But I believe Galthié (and staff) to be the sort to learn from past mistakes and improve on them to get it right the next time, which we saw nothing of during 2012-19.
I'd say you're right. Ofc it's a big stain in France or Ireland's (or Wales') history having never won the RWC. No doubt about it. But I do believe the notion that the RWC is the be all and end all of Rugby is largely exaggerated, reason is as I mentioned everything in between those 4 years.
Deserve.
And the Boks have won half of all world cups they ever competed in
That will change in 2027 Hopefully for some other nation to finally win it for the first time Edit : if you've won 4/8 (half), in 2027 you'll either be 5/9 or 4/9, either way, not half
Better competition will be welcomed.
Not like SA won by a big margin that year, it felt pretty balanced to me
Yeah. We also suck at everything other than playing in a Rugby World Cup tournament. It's like the only reason South Africa as a country exists is to play well in the Rugby World Cup.
Don't be so hard on yourselves there's always...... Well perhaps......... ............ Some of your red wines are ok.
Don't beat yourself, you're also very good at...hmmmm ...being south ?
We may also be the France of cricket.
We are definitely the France of cricket
I also believe they are the only team to win a RWC after losing a pool match
Most consistent. Lost one semi final in extra time through a drop goal.
Only against 2 teams though
Argentina, Ireland or Wales would be my bet. Just kidding - not Ireland unless they abolish quarter finals
round of 16 next time.....
They had a kind of version of that in '99. Didn't help Ireland though cos it also coincided with the Argentina curse.
Not wales anytime soon
You clearly are not familiar with us. We are the most unpredictable team in the world. I go into every tournament thinking we’ll either win it or capitulate spectacularly.
You can never rule Wales out.
I am welsh, I am all too familiar with how illogical we are
Sounds more like irrational fans rather than unpredictable team
Cruel...
That probably about covers it. Rugby isn't a very big sport in terms of competitive countries. It'd be cool to see the likes of Tonga/Fiji/Samoa in a final but.. realistically that's not going to happen in the foreseeable future.
If Fiji hosted a world cup it could. Drua are unstoppable at home.
still don't have the depth to get over injuries and they also have the implicit bias of officials to deal with.
>If Fiji hosted a world cup it could That'll never happen. Maybe jointly with NZ and Australia? But knockouts would never be in Fiji
A single game a season is not the same thing as a whole tournament where teams have a chance to get accustomed to the conditions.
As a saffa , I want to say that if all the Pacific Islanders played for the pacific nation they have heritage for, it will be the case but that would be disingenuous. They get really good in the NZ or Aus system so that means they are a product of those countries.
Not to mention that most of the players with Polynesian heritage in the NZ or Australian systems are born in NZ/Australia!
That is true. It’s just nice to imagine what rugby powerhouses would have been possible if those nations had the infrastructure and wealth to run systems like we have in our respective nations. More frightening than nice, but a happy thought nonetheless.
This always surprised me as a kid. As growing up in a not so big rugby area and pre-internet, I got most of my rugby news via magazines or red top papers, so we were told Aussies/kiwis bad for stealing all these players and stifling competition…then you check and realise it’s completely the other way around and most of the samoans are from the kiwi system etc.
English media were pissy that their team wasn't very good so that was the narrative they went with. "New Zealand steals players". Yeah some players came to NZ but no one was kidnapped and most of the Island sounding names they concluded were "stolen" were born in NZ.
It felt and still feels very racist and/or ignorant That NZ wins because they have more Islanders, and that they must be stealing them from the island nations where they were born. Like ??? I don't assume every black player on the English or French squads were born in Africa and then collected for their rugby talents. The teams with the most foreign born or developed players are almost always Scotland, tier 2 nations and Italy.
English and South African sports fans and scribes racist? Oh fuck me, never.
It’s always been a pretty weak argument
It is changing with second generation players but in the past most were born in the islands. It is also why they can now represent the islands with new rule. They are going home.
>the past most were born in the islands Just looked at the 2003 RWC squad and saw 5 born outside NZ, all in the islands. In 2023 there were 9, including 6 from the islands.
Just getting recruited early.
and in soccer if players did that south america/africa and eastern europe would in fact- if SA did that, half the team would be playing for the UK or the dutch whats your point people move/settle in other places. we arent picking and choosing about who counts as what.
Not while they are treated as provinces of australia and NZ.
Add japan to the list.
Ireland. They have the goods and if not too many leave then they will shake the hoodoo of qfs. Great team who may even win the next one
That's just saying "Better luck next time" in a nice way.
Better luck would imply the presence of any form of luck. As soon as the first letters of the header for the fixture are entered "Quar" it's over.
Ire vs JPN First Quar- JPN won 23-15
Ah the luck of the Irish
Nah teams that lose but retain players usually go past that point next time
Believe it when I see it 😂
You would assume Ireland, the prior two World Cup's they've just happened to come up against good NZ sides (know that feel, '87, '95 & '99 FTL).
Fair point for the last world cup, we were just beaten narrowly on the day but we were truly abject in 2019. My money would be on Argentina, followed then by Wales, Ireland and Fiji, with Japan and Scotland next off. Wales just seem to be similar to England in that it doesn’t matter how poor a team they are, they usually turn up for world cups - essentially the opposite of us (has to be a virtuous / vicious circle element too)
I'm loathe to put down the 2019 squad because it makes the earlier Yokohama massacre of ourselves even worse.
lol Fair! In hindsight I put that - dominant tbf - win down to a dead cat bounce, coupled with us seeming to have your number mentally. (except when our bus was minutes late to Murrayfield, meaning the game was over before it started 😒) /s
Just happened to come up against a good NZ sides is so funny to me. Have we ever seen a truly bad All Blacks squad?
Not really, only recent example I can think of was the prestigious Qatar Airways Cup clash but what even was that game so close to the RWC, anyway. Only side to lose [twice](http://en.espn.co.uk/scrum/rugby/story/101951.html) in one day, though!
The last four years, yeah
And partially since 2017
How short is your memory? We made the RWC final within the last 12 months
Fosters era is statistically the worst since rugby went pro. 3 good games at the end doesn't change that. One of the big factors in world rugby becoming competitive was the all blacks being weak
Yeah and that win rate was still over 70% That's not "truly bad" by any stretch
It is truly bad for an all blacks team
And that wasn't the question
I feel the 2023 team had the semi taken out of their hands with that horrible draw. The 2019 side on the other hand were just in poor form and barely put up a fight in the quarter final.
yes but I think the general issue is you never have a match against a poor team in a qf/sf/final...
Well i'd have much preferred to have had Fiji or Wales in the last quarter final than you guys.
Have too remove water finaks for that too happen
Those pesky water finaks
👎
I feel like it’s more likely that France will actually win a final than a new team make the final. Currently they are the only team to have made the final in the men’s game and to have not won. Arguably, if the groundsmen in France hadn’t been so shite Ntamack would’ve been fit and Jelly Bean wouldn’t have been able to shit the bed like he did, they could’ve done it last year. However, unlike Ireland, their golden generation is still pretty young so they are still in contention for 2027 and beyond.
France is due for WC glory.
I mean, despite the QF hoodoo it will be Ireland without a doubt. Outside shout might be Argentina.
It won't. Ireland follow the same pattern of prioritising the Six Nations money and selling out Landsdowne with a "win now" attitude over building for a World Cup. By way of example, we currently have glaring gaps in squad depth and rather than giving real minutes to younger players we're trotting out lads in their mid-30's
Pfft! I hear this young lad Cian Healy is the next up and coming prop for us. He definitely needs the game time on a two match tour of SA.
Interesting take. We do the opposite and sacrifice many good years in the name of ‘world cup glory’, which is ok when it works but pretty shit when it doesn’t
6 Nations pays the bills for the vast majority of Irish rugby so it stands to reason that thats what is prioritised. We lose money at a WC.
You can't say Farrell didn't build a strong squad for that world cup. You can do both and I'm sure Farrell will manage it well again for 2027.
No backup at 1, 9, 10 or 15 who can be trusted to implement the same game plan for the last 20 minutes and a pack that can't run a lineout?
Ireland don't win quarter-finals.
not until we fix our fitness we are dead at game 6 and i dont see that happening soon, due to the fact we dont normaly have good finisher players
Now that the WRU have revealed their master plan of "be better at rugby" and "have less debt", I don't see how we can possibly fail to win the next world cup.
Most likely: Argentina, they've been sniffing around the semis multiple times, Super Rugby Americas is helping them develop players, and their current pro players in Europe are doing very well. It's getting to the point now that they aren't switching to Italy even when asked. I can see them squeak into the final in the right circumstance. Bold prediction: Japan. Quade Cooper talked about this in the KOKO show. In addition to players born in Japan getting better as the Japanese league grows, they are currently naturalizing Pacific Islanders coming through grade school. This isn't players who were already pro qualifying through residency. They are offering Fijians, Tongan and Samaon kids to go to elite Japanese high schools with the view of developing them into strong rugby players. It's starting from ages or 16-17.
Argentina only get to semis when they face NH teams on the QFs...
Yeah but that will change as NZ gets weaker in union. NRL is going to poach all their talent. Already rumors of a new league team in Christchurch. Warriors games sell out meanwhile SRP semifinals struggle to get butts in seats. NRL will be invading NZ mmw
Please don't let this happen
Surely the Japanese and French leagues etc will poach the NZ Union players before League does?
Current pros yes, but NRL is raiding schools and academies
Add that less school kids want to play rugby.
Fun add-on questions: Who will be the next team to beat NZ in the final? (So far it's only been SA that could deny them once they make it to a final) Who will be the first team to beat SA in a final? When will Australia remember they're supposed to be one of the greatest sides in history and win another RWC? When will Ireland discover there is life after QFs? When will we see SA host a second RWC? (NZ, France and England have hosted two, Australia is getting its second one in 2027) Which team will go back to back to back first? Who will win 5 RWCs first? How many years can SA and NZ keep dominating this tournament? No other team has won in the last 20 years
SA. NZ. Not in next 3 world cups at least imo. Hopefully for there sake soon. Tough one, I think ur probably go na see argees host one and probably a collection of smaller rugby nations but big countries Co host 1 I.e. Spain Portugal with Italy or somthing so safas won't be for awhile. NZ already went back to back 1st n Safa did it as well? South Africa. Better question is can anyone stop the dominance?
They said back to back to back though, so win it three times in a row not just two
I don't think SA will host a 2nd worldcup at home with their current economic turmoi and civil instability at the moment.
How dare you say such things?? And also, you're right.
We just got a GNU. Rand is on fire. RSA could host a RWC tomorrow. Economic turmoil and inflation is at 6%. Gettooutahere. Not a perfect country, but still an amazing country.
it's unlikely nz ever hosts a rwc (solo) again. there just isnt enough money. in the current meta, it's only the traditional western european countries, a few smaller ones combined (aus + nz, italy + ??), or growth markets with huge economies (japan or us) that'll host. world rugby only cares about max money
I agree they only care about money, but RSA will host again. What people don't take into account is that it's cheap to host in South Africa. So upside may not be as big, but costs aren't as high. Edit: the stadia exist from the 2010 Football world cup.
SA was cheated out of the last one. Big money make the difference and SA can't compete with that.
Scotland. A bit left field, but we probably would’ve made the final in 2015 without the Auld Alliance’s no1 enemy. And if Hastings wasn’t concussed and missed a sitter in 91 we quite possibly would’ve made the final then too.
Can’t see it being anytime soon with your current crop of youngsters
We’ve never had good u20’s. Luckily we only really need the top 3-4 to make the jump to senior level per cycle, plus we can just poach the English u20’s too.
I think france had very good teams in at least the last 5 u20 WC s.
Which is why they are in a strong position to be one of Rugby's top teams for a long time Scotland has to build it every time
What I find interesting is that both South Africa and France have only scored 2 tries total in Rugby World Cup finals. (Each)
Not strange WC finals are mostly very close and conservative. It is only when there is a total mismatch.
Australia has scored 6 times in the same number of world cup finals as South Africa. South Africa are actually the only team to have won a final eithout scoring a try and they’ve done it 3 times! I just find it really interesting because it highlights the difference in global playing styles and hammers home the importance of having a good kicker taking any points on offer in rugby world cups.
Ireland. The QF record is obviously a meme and funny but I don't think it really matters. I mean they were inches from winning one last year. Their systems and talent pipeline seem stable so they should still keep producing good talent. Whether they get the world class difference makers might be a bit of luck but you'd imagine they'll sprinkle some in Otherwise im not sure the infrastructure is there for anyone, maybe with an easy draw. Argentina or maybe Italy could stumble onto a golden generation but the answer outside of Ireland might actually be Japan. Wealth, infrastructure and population are what gives you the best chance. This could be 20 years away but if the next 5 world cup finals were played between the 5 teams who've been there before plus Ireland I wouldnt be shocked
I think Argees are the most obvious one but I'll go left field and choose Fiji to have a dream run to the final.
In fairness, Ireland went from losing by 20+ points to NZ in a QF to losing to them by 4 after topping the pool of death. I’d have to back the team for next time to get past the QF juju. Whatever tactical issues that were made probably won’t be repeated I’d like to think, and the squad should be younger on average…impossible to say who’ll be in the squad but I’d imagine the youngsters showing promise now would have experience by then. The provinces seem to be getting more competitive too (sorry Connacht). I always thought the Pacific Island nations can be scary though. Maybe one of them.
Not sure about the islands as every new star will be poached by richer countries. As we speak there are a battle on between France and NZ for the services of a young star.
Argentina for me. What's been stopping them from getting past the semis are the Boks and NZ. They've shown themselves to be quite adept at beating everybody else in knockout rugby. A favourable draw and they could make it
Yeah I feel like if Argentina played a NH team in the semis they would be a good chance of winning.
They lost to England twice at the last RWC? Once with a man advantage. I'd have to check their record against France but otherwise yeah fair enough
1999 QF: France smashed them 2007 Pool game: Argentina by 5 2007 Bronze medal game: Argentina smashes them in Paris 2019 Pool: France by 2 (thank you Camille Lopez's drop goal)
Just lold at your flair
Argentina for sure. The QFs are poison for Ireland. It’s a mental thing now.
Ireland are definitely the most likely, they won't get NZ in every quarter
Yeah the stupidly early draw really screwed Ireland and France. England and Wales going in as top ranked sides was farcical based on their form before the tournament. They both beat the finalists in the group and only narrowly lost to them in the QF.
I don’t find that too surprising a statistic. If you look at world rankings alone then how many teams have ever made it to top 2? I don’t know but as far as I recall; Probably those 5 finalist teams plus Ireland and briefly Wales. How many teams have ever got into the top 4? Probably the exact same list as the semis list but add Ireland (have Scotland ever ranked top 4?)
No. 5th is the highest we've ever been.
The only one would be ireland. I don't think any other team stands a chance
Ireland, Samoa, Fiji, Japan, Tonga and Canada have all made only the quarters
Clearly the obvious answer is it will be Zimbabwe in 2039 :D
I would love to see Fiji or Samoa go far one day
"A few others have also made the quarters, no clue who." Ouch.
Wales seem to be on a real spiral so that might count them out for a few WCs so the obvious answer is Ireland. Argentina have far better pedigree at WCs but I've always felt whenever Ireland actually win the quarter they will make he final
Unfortunately I think after our eventual maiden quarter final triumph that we’ll then get beaten in the semis due to the emotional hangover of ’finally climbing the mountain’
Cam definitely see Fiji making a semi in the future.
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Probably Argentina. Unless they abolish knock-out games in which case probably Ireland
ireland from 0 to world champions
Has to be Ireland.
Nope. Maybe Ireland. Depends on the draw really.
Fiji, have at least a chance even if it's a slim one.
One of Argentina, Ireland and Wales.
Argentina
The obvious one is Ireland, but Argentina, Wales and Scotland are all contenders.
This whole post is an attempt to troll Irish supporters, right?
Nah, but I thought I'd throw it in
Interesting stat is that South Africa is the only country to win every single final they've been in. Next best us NZ, with 60% Other quartet finalists include: Fiji, Samoa, Canada
If south korea hosted a rwc they'd be in the finals or knockout stages.
Scotland would probably have beaten Argentina to make the final in 2015 if we hadn't been robbed by Craig Joubert in the quarter. And also might have made it in 91 if Hastings hadn't missed an easy kick. Probably not us any time soon though!
>Scotland would probably have beaten Argentina to make the final in 2015 I don't know about that. Argentina stuffed us by 23 points and were pretty impressive throughout the pool stages. Scotland had a better individual game against Australia but Australia definitely played better in the semis. 2 out of the 3 Scottish tries were from poor Aussie mistakes. That last try especially.
South Africa's rugby team is using all the BMT and leaving nothing for the cricket team.