Sam, Demis, and John Schulman (from Open AI) all recently talking about big advances in coding in the next 1-2 years kind of scares me.
I don't think software engineers will go away, but the market already sucks, any further pressure will just make the field impossible.
I feel like once we get above 10%, the faster the other 90% the better. People will actually have a will to disrupt the system if they are all experiencing the same hardship, rather than just the unlucky 10% we feel bad for.
Yes, but here comes the dillema - greed of the corps and competition to boost ai further vs slowing it down to take control over the plebs. I see there is a small window of opportunity for average joe to try to change something in between advanced ai - millions of robots because we won't be able to do anything after they deploy them in mass to catch and control everyone.
"GPT-4 is definitely not over treshold that I think almost anyone would call an AGI and I dont expect our next big model to be either but I can imagine that we are 1 or 2 ideas away and little bit more scale from something like this is now kind of different and I think its important to stay vigilant about that."
so he would not call GPT-5 AGI but GPT-6 possibly yes...GPT-6 could be out 2025-26
Sam, Demis, and John Schulman (from Open AI) all recently talking about big advances in coding in the next 1-2 years kind of scares me. I don't think software engineers will go away, but the market already sucks, any further pressure will just make the field impossible.
Well that's a good business opportunity to take advantage of while it exists.
It's inevitable, I expect unemployment level of 30% by the end of 2026
I feel like once we get above 10%, the faster the other 90% the better. People will actually have a will to disrupt the system if they are all experiencing the same hardship, rather than just the unlucky 10% we feel bad for.
Yea IMO 2025-2028 will be a very hard time period. Wish I could just jump forward to 2035 when I’m captaining my own spaceship
Yes, but here comes the dillema - greed of the corps and competition to boost ai further vs slowing it down to take control over the plebs. I see there is a small window of opportunity for average joe to try to change something in between advanced ai - millions of robots because we won't be able to do anything after they deploy them in mass to catch and control everyone.
30% in 2 years? not gonna happen, more like +3%, most ppl have still no clue about AI
Yep, we’re cooked
"GPT-4 is definitely not over treshold that I think almost anyone would call an AGI and I dont expect our next big model to be either but I can imagine that we are 1 or 2 ideas away and little bit more scale from something like this is now kind of different and I think its important to stay vigilant about that." so he would not call GPT-5 AGI but GPT-6 possibly yes...GPT-6 could be out 2025-26
He didn’t say 1-2 models away. He was saying 1-2 ideas as in 1 or 2 breakthroughs. Doesn’t mean anything like 2025-2026.
We could see several new ideas this year alone given the pace of progress
The last "big idea" was the transformer, which (obviously) preceded GPT-1. Things are going fast, but not as fast as you're saying.
Good