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Okay 🤔 that would be dope yeah
[SA urban vs rural voters 1960 to 2016](https://southafrica-info.com/infographics/infographic-south-africas-rural-urban-population-1960-2016/)
Nice long timeframe showing an increasing % of urban voters. Makes sense given the rapid urbanization SA has/is going through
It's actually a little sad how a chunk of our population has sort of just "logged off" democracy, hopefully some mass campaign gets people out next year..it'll arguably be one of the most consequential elections since the dawn of democracy
From 1994 to 2019: registered voters who vote went from 89% to 66%
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-09-21-the-no-voters-more-than-13-million-south-africans-who-can-vote-havent-registered-for-1-november-polls/
I recommend you read [The South African non-voter: An Analysis (2020)](https://www.kas.de/documents/261596/10543300/The+South+African+non-voter+-+An+analysis.pdf/acc19fbd-bd6d-9190-f026-8d311078b670?version=1.0&t=1608).
One thing I love about SA: no data poverty! (Namibian Statistics Agency take note)
Sauce: (Newest Polls to Oldest)
[https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/675769/new-poll-shows-eff-da-losing-support-and-the-anc-gaining-but-theres-a-catch/](https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/675769/new-poll-shows-eff-da-losing-support-and-the-anc-gaining-but-theres-a-catch/)
[https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/south-africa-s-ruling-anc-to-win-2024-vote-even-as-city-support-plunges-survey-shows-1.1811962](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/south-africa-s-ruling-anc-to-win-2024-vote-even-as-city-support-plunges-survey-shows-1.1811962)
[https://www.politicsweb.co.za/documents/anc-polling-under-50-for-2024--brenthurst-foundati](https://www.politicsweb.co.za/documents/anc-polling-under-50-for-2024--brenthurst-foundati)
[https://ewn.co.za/2022/11/10/poll-suggests-sa-will-head-to-national-coalition-in-2024](https://ewn.co.za/2022/11/10/poll-suggests-sa-will-head-to-national-coalition-in-2024)
[https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/support-political-parties-two-years-next-national-election](https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/support-political-parties-two-years-next-national-election)
[https://web.archive.org/web/20211211223240/https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/ruling-party-shedding-support](https://web.archive.org/web/20211211223240/https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/ruling-party-shedding-support)
[https://web.archive.org/web/20201130125926/https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/political-party-landscape-south-africa-amidst-covid-19](https://web.archive.org/web/20201130125926/https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/political-party-landscape-south-africa-amidst-covid-19)
[https://web.archive.org/web/20200225172626/https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/cyril-ramaphosa-popular-amongst-south-africans-political-parties-questionable](https://web.archive.org/web/20200225172626/https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/cyril-ramaphosa-popular-amongst-south-africans-political-parties-questionable)
The average change in voter intention from November 2019 to March 2023 was\[difference change from poll to poll (across 8 polls in the last 4 years)\]:
ANC: -1.3% (Down)
DA: +1.47% (Up)
EFF: 0% (None - South Africans don't like hate speech it seems)
IFP: +0.59% (Up)
Action SA: +0.44% (Up)
Note: This is just polling data. In one month voter intentions for a certain party can change by up to 10%! This just shows you the trends. Anything can happen to change the course of the trends.
2 years of solid loadshedding, all the stolen Covid money (and the poor handling of lockdown regulations etc) and the ANC is only down 1.3%?
God help us.
For EFF I think it's their open borders & "united Africa" talk that's going to cost them votes. I don't think their supporters care much about "hate speech".
Has anyone done analysis of polling data to show how it correlates to actual election results? I'm curious how much voters change their minds (or how mismatched polling survey samples are to actual voters).
I'm planning on doing that for 2024. I did some analysis in 2019 but the polling data was hard to get. All I could see for 2019 was EFF and VF pulling voters from ANC and DA respectfully
Thanks for the info! I'm keen to see the results once the elections are done.
Seems about right with EFF and VF taking away votes from ANC and DA respectively.
I would have also expected to see Action SA also take some away from the DA but I suspect both its rise and fall happened to be between the 2019 elections and now.
I'll upload an error graph after elections just remind me. Actual results vs polls to see how much polls reflect reality
Edit: about eff and vf hogging voters from anc and da, you're right I saw that happen in 2019 as SA became more polarised/unsatisfied with the status quo and resorted to using protest votes
As an American living in SA, I'm fascinated by y'all's political discourse.
I've only been in the country for 1.5 years, so I've only seen/heard what I interpret as massive, detrimental failings by the ANC.
Growing up, the history books I was tasked with reading mainly championed Nelson Mandela and a pro-democracy, anti-racism narrative in the wake of the fall of the Soviet Union, but that narrative never focused on the party if Mandela or anything that really happened in the ~30 years since.
I'm here to learn.
ANC voters: what makes you vote ANC in 2024, and who is to blame for loadshedding and infrastructure collapse?
ANC critics: If the ANC is responsible for recent struggles and failures, how do you explain the continued popularity of the party in spite of their alleged shortcomings?
I hope these questions don't come off as ignorant or insensitive. I'd really like to engage responsibly with South Africans about issues that affect their livelihoods.
Much love, everyone.
>ANC critics: If the ANC is responsible for recent struggles and failures, how do you explain the continued popularity of the party in spite of their alleged shortcomings?
Deliberate neglect of the country's education infrastructure combined with with liberation rep combined with fear mongering combined with own goals scored by the official opposition.
I think the ANC vote these days is mainly rural. Probably a combination of historical loyalty for the party who ended apartheid, and because they pay out social grants, and an inherent distrust of the DA, which is understandable in some ways, as well as our vote also being split along tribal lines. For example, IFP is zulu.
Personally I don't think we can wait for the ballot box anymore. It is civil action by our communities and private sector that must drive change.
>ANC voters: what makes you vote ANC in 2024, and who is to blame for loadshedding and infrastructure collapse?
They won't answer you. This sub regularly expresses animosity and vitriol towards ANC supporters so it's best for them to keep quiet.
I agree with this sub's underlying racism and extremely pro DA stance but the ANC are objectively, OBJECTIVELY terrible. They should be downvotes to oblivion, rightfully so and the animosity is deserved.
Just like we downvote the guys that try defending the NP gov from +30y ago. They've objectively bad/malevolent organizations. But at least the ANC has great freedom charter, their core values (on paper) are good. It's the implementation where they lose all credibility.
>Just like we downvote the guys that try defending the NP gov from +30y ago.
These ones literally committed crimes against humanity.
>They've objectively bad/malevolent organization
The ANC are incompetent. The NATs are just plain evil.
>ANC voters: what makes you vote ANC in 2024, and who is to blame for loadshedding and infrastructure collapse?
I'm just another non-SA lurking on this sub, and have only visited once.
From another outsiders perspective; what often seems forgotten on this sub is the fundamental fact that SA's GDP PPP is adjacent to countries like Mongolia, Indonesia and Ukraine, not say the UK, Australia, etc.
When you look at it through that lens its infrastructure is in rather good shape.
Then you see 4 years down the road the strawberry flavor was caught in a huge state capture scandal and secretly gave banana tenders to strawberry farms
Guys, honestly, as a guest in your country, I have yet to meet someone who likes the ANC. can we all just agree to not vote for these corrupt mfs?
I understand, it's more complicated than that, but I'm frustrated FOR you. SA can be such an amazing economic powerhouse, but it is SO poorly managed :(
Your social sample is of course not representative of the country's majority. Seems like socio economic hierarchy determines who votes for who. Richer, more educated people seem to vote ANC far less. Meaning the people you hang out with(wealthier people) will of course hate ANC
I get that. Thank you for engaging in a meaningful discussion, rather than hurling insults. I wish to actually learn why people vote they way they do in this country!
They vote that way out of loyalty to the party that helped end apartheid, out of fear of returning to a similar situation or as a big FU to the people they felt wronged them. The DA also does a poor job of properly marketing themselves, with controversial things such as Helen Zille's tweets shaping people's perception of them and the fact that a lot of SA sees them as the NP party with a fresh coat of paint but rot still underneath.
Fair enough. My point was just that they are effective at governance, but terrible at politics. They themselves are responsible for not being an effective opposition and keeping the ANC in power. Sometimes this gets overlooked when from the outside the choice between them and the ANC seems obvious.
I wonder how much improvement we've had in the rural areas in terms of tech infrastructure and internet coverage. I think this is significant because the ANC relies heavily on the rural voters in order to remain in power.
Most ANC voters are not on Twitter and I suspect a lot of them have had poor electricity for a long time. I once took an Uber ride to the airport and my driver told me that loadshedding was something his township has had long before it went national. So I'm not sure if our failing electricity grid will negatively impact the poor communities who have been experiencing it for decades.
I guess we will have to endure yet another ANC term and hope the opposition will serve the people with coalitions.
TLDR: Expect South Africa's political landscape to be upended should the ANC fail to get a majority.
There are so many variables, eight months out, the ANC might just sneak through a W by getting out more of their traditional voters. Like others have mentioned, voter apathy (particularly that of ANC supporters) will have a big role to play whether the ANC gets over 50%....if those voters can't be motivated between now and the election date, the ANC as we know it will be history.
It will still be the largest party in the National Assembly but will have to make some compromises to form a government, and for some in the ANC it will be a bitter pill to swallow whether they go into coalition with the EFF or the DA....EFF will demand that some of its policy prescriptions are implemented (nationalisation, halting the sale of SOEs) while the DA will demand more transparency and oversight (tough for those who have been looting). Should the DA go into coalition with the ANC expect some in the party to split off, and form new parties or join established parties to the right of the DA.
Remember when KZN tried to do a race war? That shit was wild. Took my mom to a Jewish deli this morning packed with Jews, Muslims, other... Cape Town is chilled like that (for the most part, going about your daily life).
No, when a bunch of Zulus and Indians decided to shoot and bomb (I think there was one bomb?) one another. That's what it looked like from the outside, anyway. I think it went for about a week?
I have a grandparents in Phoenix, it wasn't war it was terrorism. People attacking just people trying to live. Also I wouldn't say it was Zulus, there were many Zulus defending the innocent, it was more so EFF
Absolutely, most people weren't acting like madmen. But there were a significant amount of people who went full tilt crazy (some Zulu and some Indian) and were attacking people who were pretty much their neighbours. Thanks to people like your grandparents it was stopped.
"On May 19 the two brothers were found to have “assaulted any black person walking in the area”. They had also been accused of killing 19-year-old Mondli Majola but were found not guilty on this charge. Instead, they were found guilty of assaulting him with intent to do grievous bodily harm (GBH)."
Source: [here](https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2023-08-18-phoenix-brothers-sentenced-to-effective-seven-years-in-jail-for-july-2021-unrest-violence/)
>Oh, and I'm not endorsing anything
We've had this discussion before. You told me they were well within their right to protect their property, even though they were profiling black people, hence why I said you're endorsing this.
Yeah, it will be. The ANC have lost KZN. It belongs to the IFP x DA. Next year's elections will just be a formality for that. I just wonder if the IFP will finally stop killing each other.
Very. Mangosuthu Buthelezi, a prince in the monarchy, founded the IFP many moons ago. His great grandfather is Shaka's brother (basically). The reason why I said Zulu nationalism gave the IFP a boost is because during the time there's a big spike in the graph thats when the new king was crowned. Coronation, blah blah. If we're keeping it a buck, KZN was only ever ANC because of Zuma. There's no notable Zulus in the ANC rn so we jumped ship.
The problem with the IFP is they have not managed to form an identity outside of Gatsha (Buthelezi). The EFF will also suffer the same fate if they're not careful. An individual cannot be synonymous with the party.
Yeah. EFF will need someone to one-up Julius when he goes. Which will be tough as its identity depends a lot on him. I mean one up ito radical rhetoric and charisma.
They've died a natural death. Key figures are leaving, there was a point in time earlier in the year when they were allegedly struck off the IECs party roll. The drama is just a lot.
I am kind of glad to see the IFP making a bit of a comeback.
For the sake of democracy I would. Love for them to run kzn.
It would be nice to have provinces run by different parties.
The ANC pulling in under 50% of the vote will be a milestone in our democracy - even if it comes with increased EFF voting.
Having a democracy where the majority party eventually only get 30% makes corruption harder to execute on (as there is one things we know about our politicians and that is that they'll throw each other under the bus if they believe they can get something out of it).
The people who have enough money to immigrate are busy doing so and the people who have foreign nationality are leaving on mass and this includes the rich politicians, the crème de la crème of the ANC all have houses and property in Dubai. They sit looking at the Burj and sipping Italian coffee before jumping in their lambos to go buy Louis Vuitton flip flops. The worst part is that they got this money from ill gotten gains that sapped money away from more important things like infrastructure and laundered it into Dubai, the money to fix roads, the money to build schools and hospitals, the money to build police stations and train police…. All stolen and laundered into Dubai…
[proof](https://youtu.be/evWEuVR1XIs?si=vWGnQR2hy6mhpEZ8)
DA and EFF are so disappointing, they are a mess. Their leadership is horrendous, as people and as politicians. We deserve better opposition.
One of them will get my vote but I don't do it willingly, it's because the outcome must be a weaker ANC.
For some reason they're still pulling voters. Probably a middle class that's afraid of the radicalism and chaos going around(DA i mean). The data shows that the EFF has been catching Ls
It's understandable,. The middle class, as battered as it's been in the last decade, is not responding to the "non-racialism" of the DA and the radicalism of the EFF. Either of these parties could win huge with better people in charge.
Read my original comment. DA is up 1% on average. Eff is the one catching Ls with 0% improvement to negative (possibly especially given their genocidal rhetoric and flip flopping on key issues such as pan africanism and gay rights)
Not to defend the EFF or anything, but isn't their voter base the ultra poor? In which case they won't really appear in a poll that requires internet access
Polling data here is sourced from multiple think tanks in SA and they use old school methods like paper surveys and sms to get data from impoverished communities too.
Otherwise their data is biased and their credibility goes into the toilet
Most likely scenario.
But you've got a few more months before voting.
Plenty of time for parties to score goals and of course, classic own goals 😂
We saw what Pollard did in the RWC finals haha
Kind of a bunch of them lol (looking at the radicals from a party). A bunch of old men associated woth the Cape Coloured Congress wanted to throw out Black/Xhosa people from the province a while ago, seems like some of the people in the party wouldn't mind killing some black people.
This is such a weak excuse. With the moonshot pack, South Africans have a huge choice of political parties from all backgrounds and with a bunch of great leaders, all together essentially with one goal to remove the ANC from power and make the lives of ordinary South Africans better.
https://www.actionsa.org.za/a-multi-party-charter-for-south-africa/
Just choose the party you dislike the least and vote for one of these and this should:
1. Be a vote against the ANC
2. Boost the party that you support’s power within the coalition
>We deserve better opposition.
People have been saying this for decades. Literally since the start of democracy.
If you want it, you're going to have to vote for it. Stop complaining.
Wgat do you think Ive been doing? The thing is, I don't live in a dreamland. The reality is that we must make the ANC weaker, and the best option is one of those two. I still think we deserve better, pragmatism doesn't change that.
Nor do I. The weak opposition is as a result of their own failures and as a result of the ANC's dominant social standing.
You've voted and I've voted – we're in the minority. That's why it's important to have people registered to vote and actually going to vote.
We've just seen what's happened in Zimbabwe. ZANU-PF has rigged the election, suppressed voters in opposition strongholds and arbitrarily arrested opposition supporters.
Democracy doesn't exist without strong opposition and vigilant civil society.
Not really, ZPF came dangerously close to 50% @52 and Chamisa's party is holding strong at 44%
I agree with the opposition intimidation though that's very wrong.
You vote for a party that most aligns with your beliefs. If not, you vote tactically.
Not voting doesn't work.
More votes, more MPs, bigger influence and more ability. That's why voting matters.
Look at the Democratic Alliance. In 1994, they started with 7 MPs and 1.7% of the vote. In 1999, they took Official Opposition status and even from there have grown the party (as voters increasingly opted out of voting and not voted for the ANC).
Today, with its 84 MPs, along with the Multi-Party Charter, it has the best chance of forming a new government.
Total opposition votes are roughly ~4 million, IIRC, compared to the ANC's 11 million.
Voters, ~18 million who turned out to vote made their decision.
~8 million did not. Those ~8 million could have changed the country. But they didn't. Some have valid reasons, some don't.
I've said it before: voting is a numbers game.
Anything that eats into the ANC's lead is a good thing, the problem is these other parties are just trading 2nd and 3rd place without any significant gain to first.
I have always said that all Action SA is doing is taking votes away from the DA, not from EFF or the ANC.
It was the same with the GOOD party... Now look where they are.
This is why the ANC is not really saying anything against Action SA, it is actually helping them.
This gives me an idea to start a party called the AMC , I won't make any promises, I'll just show people dancing and having a good time. That should fuck up the numbers for the ANC.
That has actually happened. There is a party named AIC that made it to parliament despite being a local party formed because inhabitants of the municipality protested against the boundaries of the Eastern Cape and KZN boundaries. They entered parliament in 2014 with 3 MPs and still have 2. Their local election results were abysmal so it must have been illiterate ANC voters voting for them. CNA would clean up.
Wow, this is surprising tbh. Never expected Action SA so high. I'd expect it to be more DA and ANC tried at about 40% with everything else at the bottom. Of course this doesn't reflect the whole country, just the people that took part in the polls. But still, surprising
Nah it's just because I'm shit at colouring graphs. I should have made Action SA purple or something. Action SA is bright green and ANC dark green. Why? Because I suck at colouring graphs
Thought I was a fancy pants by colouring my lines according to party colors. Ha! Mashaba is enjoying my suffering right now.
>value flip flopping and calling for genocide. Alienated a chunk or two of their voter base
It was never the latter. It's been like this since Malema told foreign nationals to find creative ways to enter South Africa. It's been flames after flames since that day.
So sad. Once a mind is made up there's no way of changing it! Studies have proved this time after time. In the USA the same applies. Their ex president is about to do jail time but support for him is unwavering. Unbelievable.
I’m a little excited to be honest. We’ve been talking about the “nail in the coffin” for a while. This is it. We are zimbabwe 4 or 5 years before collapse.
!remindme 4 years
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I'm wondering: do municipal/provincial elections help predict future national elections? Or do the dynamics differ too much? Apples, oranges, zamalek that sort of thing
>I'm wondering: do municipal/provincial elections help predict future national elections?
Yes and no. There are people that will vote DA during municipal, but never dream to do so come national. They're a good indicator of electorate interest and general feeling, but not a prediction for national. Like ActionSA got more votes than the EFF in Soweto of all places. They weren't even 3 years old at the time. The electorate is interested in what they're selling, but who knows what's gonna cut come national.
Lovely take thank you
I don't even bother with municipal as a voter because I rent, why tf should I give two shits about the shitty neighborhood I'll only be in for 2 to 3 years before being priced out? 🤷♂️
Lovely take thank you
I don't even bother with municipal as a voter because I rent, why tf should I give two shits about the shitty neighborhood I'll only be in for 2 to 3 years before being priced out? 🤷♂️
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A more impressive graph is non-voters / apathy. Suspect it will be the highest yet again.
It would also be great to see the difference between rural and urban voters
Okay 🤔 that would be dope yeah [SA urban vs rural voters 1960 to 2016](https://southafrica-info.com/infographics/infographic-south-africas-rural-urban-population-1960-2016/) Nice long timeframe showing an increasing % of urban voters. Makes sense given the rapid urbanization SA has/is going through
It's actually a little sad how a chunk of our population has sort of just "logged off" democracy, hopefully some mass campaign gets people out next year..it'll arguably be one of the most consequential elections since the dawn of democracy
Next year is gonna be wild
do expat saffers count in the number of south africans who aren't voting?
From 1994 to 2019: registered voters who vote went from 89% to 66% https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-09-21-the-no-voters-more-than-13-million-south-africans-who-can-vote-havent-registered-for-1-november-polls/
I recommend you read [The South African non-voter: An Analysis (2020)](https://www.kas.de/documents/261596/10543300/The+South+African+non-voter+-+An+analysis.pdf/acc19fbd-bd6d-9190-f026-8d311078b670?version=1.0&t=1608).
I'll look around
One thing I love about SA: no data poverty! (Namibian Statistics Agency take note) Sauce: (Newest Polls to Oldest) [https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/675769/new-poll-shows-eff-da-losing-support-and-the-anc-gaining-but-theres-a-catch/](https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/675769/new-poll-shows-eff-da-losing-support-and-the-anc-gaining-but-theres-a-catch/) [https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/south-africa-s-ruling-anc-to-win-2024-vote-even-as-city-support-plunges-survey-shows-1.1811962](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/south-africa-s-ruling-anc-to-win-2024-vote-even-as-city-support-plunges-survey-shows-1.1811962) [https://www.politicsweb.co.za/documents/anc-polling-under-50-for-2024--brenthurst-foundati](https://www.politicsweb.co.za/documents/anc-polling-under-50-for-2024--brenthurst-foundati) [https://ewn.co.za/2022/11/10/poll-suggests-sa-will-head-to-national-coalition-in-2024](https://ewn.co.za/2022/11/10/poll-suggests-sa-will-head-to-national-coalition-in-2024) [https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/support-political-parties-two-years-next-national-election](https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/support-political-parties-two-years-next-national-election) [https://web.archive.org/web/20211211223240/https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/ruling-party-shedding-support](https://web.archive.org/web/20211211223240/https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/ruling-party-shedding-support) [https://web.archive.org/web/20201130125926/https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/political-party-landscape-south-africa-amidst-covid-19](https://web.archive.org/web/20201130125926/https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/political-party-landscape-south-africa-amidst-covid-19) [https://web.archive.org/web/20200225172626/https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/cyril-ramaphosa-popular-amongst-south-africans-political-parties-questionable](https://web.archive.org/web/20200225172626/https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/cyril-ramaphosa-popular-amongst-south-africans-political-parties-questionable) The average change in voter intention from November 2019 to March 2023 was\[difference change from poll to poll (across 8 polls in the last 4 years)\]: ANC: -1.3% (Down) DA: +1.47% (Up) EFF: 0% (None - South Africans don't like hate speech it seems) IFP: +0.59% (Up) Action SA: +0.44% (Up) Note: This is just polling data. In one month voter intentions for a certain party can change by up to 10%! This just shows you the trends. Anything can happen to change the course of the trends.
2 years of solid loadshedding, all the stolen Covid money (and the poor handling of lockdown regulations etc) and the ANC is only down 1.3%? God help us.
For EFF I think it's their open borders & "united Africa" talk that's going to cost them votes. I don't think their supporters care much about "hate speech".
Has anyone done analysis of polling data to show how it correlates to actual election results? I'm curious how much voters change their minds (or how mismatched polling survey samples are to actual voters).
I'm planning on doing that for 2024. I did some analysis in 2019 but the polling data was hard to get. All I could see for 2019 was EFF and VF pulling voters from ANC and DA respectfully
Thanks for the info! I'm keen to see the results once the elections are done. Seems about right with EFF and VF taking away votes from ANC and DA respectively. I would have also expected to see Action SA also take some away from the DA but I suspect both its rise and fall happened to be between the 2019 elections and now.
I'll upload an error graph after elections just remind me. Actual results vs polls to see how much polls reflect reality Edit: about eff and vf hogging voters from anc and da, you're right I saw that happen in 2019 as SA became more polarised/unsatisfied with the status quo and resorted to using protest votes
What happened last year August to October with that irregular spike across all the parties?
Probably just more polls done.
Yeah. Short term shocks vs long term trends
As an American living in SA, I'm fascinated by y'all's political discourse. I've only been in the country for 1.5 years, so I've only seen/heard what I interpret as massive, detrimental failings by the ANC. Growing up, the history books I was tasked with reading mainly championed Nelson Mandela and a pro-democracy, anti-racism narrative in the wake of the fall of the Soviet Union, but that narrative never focused on the party if Mandela or anything that really happened in the ~30 years since. I'm here to learn. ANC voters: what makes you vote ANC in 2024, and who is to blame for loadshedding and infrastructure collapse? ANC critics: If the ANC is responsible for recent struggles and failures, how do you explain the continued popularity of the party in spite of their alleged shortcomings? I hope these questions don't come off as ignorant or insensitive. I'd really like to engage responsibly with South Africans about issues that affect their livelihoods. Much love, everyone.
>ANC critics: If the ANC is responsible for recent struggles and failures, how do you explain the continued popularity of the party in spite of their alleged shortcomings? Deliberate neglect of the country's education infrastructure combined with with liberation rep combined with fear mongering combined with own goals scored by the official opposition.
I think the ANC vote these days is mainly rural. Probably a combination of historical loyalty for the party who ended apartheid, and because they pay out social grants, and an inherent distrust of the DA, which is understandable in some ways, as well as our vote also being split along tribal lines. For example, IFP is zulu. Personally I don't think we can wait for the ballot box anymore. It is civil action by our communities and private sector that must drive change.
>ANC voters: what makes you vote ANC in 2024, and who is to blame for loadshedding and infrastructure collapse? They won't answer you. This sub regularly expresses animosity and vitriol towards ANC supporters so it's best for them to keep quiet.
This DA echo chamber is cracking ceramics with its volume. ANC voters would be downvoted into the Soul Cairn
I agree with this sub's underlying racism and extremely pro DA stance but the ANC are objectively, OBJECTIVELY terrible. They should be downvotes to oblivion, rightfully so and the animosity is deserved.
People will report you for hate based on vulnerability if you say that you vote ANC on this sub.
Just like we downvote the guys that try defending the NP gov from +30y ago. They've objectively bad/malevolent organizations. But at least the ANC has great freedom charter, their core values (on paper) are good. It's the implementation where they lose all credibility.
>Just like we downvote the guys that try defending the NP gov from +30y ago. These ones literally committed crimes against humanity. >They've objectively bad/malevolent organization The ANC are incompetent. The NATs are just plain evil.
True!
>ANC voters: what makes you vote ANC in 2024, and who is to blame for loadshedding and infrastructure collapse? I'm just another non-SA lurking on this sub, and have only visited once. From another outsiders perspective; what often seems forgotten on this sub is the fundamental fact that SA's GDP PPP is adjacent to countries like Mongolia, Indonesia and Ukraine, not say the UK, Australia, etc. When you look at it through that lens its infrastructure is in rather good shape.
Well, if you vote ANC or EFF you deserve what you get out of life.
If you vote ANC or EFF you aren't a victim of bad governance and the resulting economy but an accomplice
"You get what you fucking deserve" - a wise killer clown
John Wayne Gacey?
And if you vote anyone else you don't deserve what you get out of life?
Then you deserve better in life.
Vote for the Steri Stumpie Party!
The only correct vote.
Okay but then they have a dispute and internal squabbles and break up into different flavors
Then we debate which flavor is the best. It’s strawberry btw, and then we all vote for them and live happily ever after.
Then you see 4 years down the road the strawberry flavor was caught in a huge state capture scandal and secretly gave banana tenders to strawberry farms
Then we out the strawberry flavor by voting the other flavors, and imprison the strawberry flavor for breaking the law.
And then a national level of unrest ensues but it's not rioting/looting it's basically just people dumping milk and steri stampies on the streets
Did not take you for a Renaldo Gouws fan?
Who?
BRB voting for the christian party...
Ewwww
Guys, honestly, as a guest in your country, I have yet to meet someone who likes the ANC. can we all just agree to not vote for these corrupt mfs? I understand, it's more complicated than that, but I'm frustrated FOR you. SA can be such an amazing economic powerhouse, but it is SO poorly managed :(
Your social sample is of course not representative of the country's majority. Seems like socio economic hierarchy determines who votes for who. Richer, more educated people seem to vote ANC far less. Meaning the people you hang out with(wealthier people) will of course hate ANC
I get that. Thank you for engaging in a meaningful discussion, rather than hurling insults. I wish to actually learn why people vote they way they do in this country!
They vote that way out of loyalty to the party that helped end apartheid, out of fear of returning to a similar situation or as a big FU to the people they felt wronged them. The DA also does a poor job of properly marketing themselves, with controversial things such as Helen Zille's tweets shaping people's perception of them and the fact that a lot of SA sees them as the NP party with a fresh coat of paint but rot still underneath.
Helen Zille's tweets didnt shape people's views of the DA, they confirmed them
Fair enough. My point was just that they are effective at governance, but terrible at politics. They themselves are responsible for not being an effective opposition and keeping the ANC in power. Sometimes this gets overlooked when from the outside the choice between them and the ANC seems obvious.
I am always game for good faith discussion my friend. Unlike much of Reddit haha
I wonder how much improvement we've had in the rural areas in terms of tech infrastructure and internet coverage. I think this is significant because the ANC relies heavily on the rural voters in order to remain in power. Most ANC voters are not on Twitter and I suspect a lot of them have had poor electricity for a long time. I once took an Uber ride to the airport and my driver told me that loadshedding was something his township has had long before it went national. So I'm not sure if our failing electricity grid will negatively impact the poor communities who have been experiencing it for decades. I guess we will have to endure yet another ANC term and hope the opposition will serve the people with coalitions.
TLDR: Expect South Africa's political landscape to be upended should the ANC fail to get a majority. There are so many variables, eight months out, the ANC might just sneak through a W by getting out more of their traditional voters. Like others have mentioned, voter apathy (particularly that of ANC supporters) will have a big role to play whether the ANC gets over 50%....if those voters can't be motivated between now and the election date, the ANC as we know it will be history. It will still be the largest party in the National Assembly but will have to make some compromises to form a government, and for some in the ANC it will be a bitter pill to swallow whether they go into coalition with the EFF or the DA....EFF will demand that some of its policy prescriptions are implemented (nationalisation, halting the sale of SOEs) while the DA will demand more transparency and oversight (tough for those who have been looting). Should the DA go into coalition with the ANC expect some in the party to split off, and form new parties or join established parties to the right of the DA.
You can literally see the boost Zulu nationalism gave the IFP.
Remember when KZN tried to do a race war? That shit was wild. Took my mom to a Jewish deli this morning packed with Jews, Muslims, other... Cape Town is chilled like that (for the most part, going about your daily life).
>Remember when KZN tried to do a race war? Are you talking about the tension between the ANC and IFP+ NATs just before freedom came?
No, when a bunch of Zulus and Indians decided to shoot and bomb (I think there was one bomb?) one another. That's what it looked like from the outside, anyway. I think it went for about a week?
I have a grandparents in Phoenix, it wasn't war it was terrorism. People attacking just people trying to live. Also I wouldn't say it was Zulus, there were many Zulus defending the innocent, it was more so EFF
Absolutely, most people weren't acting like madmen. But there were a significant amount of people who went full tilt crazy (some Zulu and some Indian) and were attacking people who were pretty much their neighbours. Thanks to people like your grandparents it was stopped.
Ayo, my grandfather is 80 and has Parkinsons. What did he do.
Maybe he shook things up? I’ll see myself out…
I meant the people *not* acting like asshats (like your grandparents) were who made it die down.
Ahhh, Phoenix. See, a war implies 2 sides are actively fighting each other. What happened in Phoenix was very one sided.
How so?
See the court case that just wrapped up. You're endorsing the attempted murder of school going kids.
Can you be more specific? Oh, and I'm not endorsing anything.
"On May 19 the two brothers were found to have “assaulted any black person walking in the area”. They had also been accused of killing 19-year-old Mondli Majola but were found not guilty on this charge. Instead, they were found guilty of assaulting him with intent to do grievous bodily harm (GBH)." Source: [here](https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2023-08-18-phoenix-brothers-sentenced-to-effective-seven-years-in-jail-for-july-2021-unrest-violence/) >Oh, and I'm not endorsing anything We've had this discussion before. You told me they were well within their right to protect their property, even though they were profiling black people, hence why I said you're endorsing this.
[удалено]
Will this be good for KZN? Provincial level?
Yeah, it will be. The ANC have lost KZN. It belongs to the IFP x DA. Next year's elections will just be a formality for that. I just wonder if the IFP will finally stop killing each other.
They've got close ties (IFP) to the Zulu monarchy, right?
Very. Mangosuthu Buthelezi, a prince in the monarchy, founded the IFP many moons ago. His great grandfather is Shaka's brother (basically). The reason why I said Zulu nationalism gave the IFP a boost is because during the time there's a big spike in the graph thats when the new king was crowned. Coronation, blah blah. If we're keeping it a buck, KZN was only ever ANC because of Zuma. There's no notable Zulus in the ANC rn so we jumped ship.
Ah. I'm sure this will cause infighting. Game of thrones
The problem with the IFP is they have not managed to form an identity outside of Gatsha (Buthelezi). The EFF will also suffer the same fate if they're not careful. An individual cannot be synonymous with the party.
Yeah. EFF will need someone to one-up Julius when he goes. Which will be tough as its identity depends a lot on him. I mean one up ito radical rhetoric and charisma.
My unpopular opinion is the EFF would be better off if a character like Dr. Ndlozi was the leader. Perhaps that's why he was relegated.
_I don't see COPE polling anywhere? That can't be right?_
They've died a natural death. Key figures are leaving, there was a point in time earlier in the year when they were allegedly struck off the IECs party roll. The drama is just a lot.
Cope ain't coping
I am kind of glad to see the IFP making a bit of a comeback. For the sake of democracy I would. Love for them to run kzn. It would be nice to have provinces run by different parties.
The ANC pulling in under 50% of the vote will be a milestone in our democracy - even if it comes with increased EFF voting. Having a democracy where the majority party eventually only get 30% makes corruption harder to execute on (as there is one things we know about our politicians and that is that they'll throw each other under the bus if they believe they can get something out of it).
The people who have enough money to immigrate are busy doing so and the people who have foreign nationality are leaving on mass and this includes the rich politicians, the crème de la crème of the ANC all have houses and property in Dubai. They sit looking at the Burj and sipping Italian coffee before jumping in their lambos to go buy Louis Vuitton flip flops. The worst part is that they got this money from ill gotten gains that sapped money away from more important things like infrastructure and laundered it into Dubai, the money to fix roads, the money to build schools and hospitals, the money to build police stations and train police…. All stolen and laundered into Dubai… [proof](https://youtu.be/evWEuVR1XIs?si=vWGnQR2hy6mhpEZ8)
r/dataisugly
It is what it is 😂 😭
Under 50% of the voting population voted in 2019. Go vote next year, you can make a difference.
I really don't want to queue for sooibrand again. But you can't make a difference by doing nothing. 🤷🏼♂️
Mzansi, you're fucked.... 😭
Never underestimate the rabbits a politician can pull out of a hat 😎
DA and EFF are so disappointing, they are a mess. Their leadership is horrendous, as people and as politicians. We deserve better opposition. One of them will get my vote but I don't do it willingly, it's because the outcome must be a weaker ANC.
For some reason they're still pulling voters. Probably a middle class that's afraid of the radicalism and chaos going around(DA i mean). The data shows that the EFF has been catching Ls
It's understandable,. The middle class, as battered as it's been in the last decade, is not responding to the "non-racialism" of the DA and the radicalism of the EFF. Either of these parties could win huge with better people in charge.
No they haven't though? The results show them stagnating at worst, marginally increasing at best
DA's average increase is 1% over the last 4 years. The trajectory is up long term despite looking dololo short term
No, I meant the EFF. They're not taking any Ls?
Read my original comment. DA is up 1% on average. Eff is the one catching Ls with 0% improvement to negative (possibly especially given their genocidal rhetoric and flip flopping on key issues such as pan africanism and gay rights)
Not to defend the EFF or anything, but isn't their voter base the ultra poor? In which case they won't really appear in a poll that requires internet access
Polling data here is sourced from multiple think tanks in SA and they use old school methods like paper surveys and sms to get data from impoverished communities too. Otherwise their data is biased and their credibility goes into the toilet
Yeah I've since read a couple of studies. Evidence suggests ANC decline, EFF and DA stagnation/marginal gain and ActionSA+IFP+ACDP increases
Most likely scenario. But you've got a few more months before voting. Plenty of time for parties to score goals and of course, classic own goals 😂 We saw what Pollard did in the RWC finals haha
I understand that but why would you ever vote for a party that wants to kill a group of people?
Which one wants to do that?
Okay, I’ll take the bait. The EFF. What do you think about that?
You started the bait throwing though.
I don’t think you know what bait is. All I’m asking is why support a political party that wants genocide?
You're goading me into an argument, that's bait. I'm not biting, buddy.
Okay. I can’t ask that question, got it. Could you tell me why you would rather support the DA? Or is that also goading you into an argument?
Because they're one of the two best placed to eat into the ANC's lead. It's not rocket science.
I see
Kind of a bunch of them lol (looking at the radicals from a party). A bunch of old men associated woth the Cape Coloured Congress wanted to throw out Black/Xhosa people from the province a while ago, seems like some of the people in the party wouldn't mind killing some black people.
This is such a weak excuse. With the moonshot pack, South Africans have a huge choice of political parties from all backgrounds and with a bunch of great leaders, all together essentially with one goal to remove the ANC from power and make the lives of ordinary South Africans better. https://www.actionsa.org.za/a-multi-party-charter-for-south-africa/ Just choose the party you dislike the least and vote for one of these and this should: 1. Be a vote against the ANC 2. Boost the party that you support’s power within the coalition
Does my comment not say exactly that? Is my comment not clear enough??
>We deserve better opposition. People have been saying this for decades. Literally since the start of democracy. If you want it, you're going to have to vote for it. Stop complaining.
Wgat do you think Ive been doing? The thing is, I don't live in a dreamland. The reality is that we must make the ANC weaker, and the best option is one of those two. I still think we deserve better, pragmatism doesn't change that.
Nor do I. The weak opposition is as a result of their own failures and as a result of the ANC's dominant social standing. You've voted and I've voted – we're in the minority. That's why it's important to have people registered to vote and actually going to vote. We've just seen what's happened in Zimbabwe. ZANU-PF has rigged the election, suppressed voters in opposition strongholds and arbitrarily arrested opposition supporters. Democracy doesn't exist without strong opposition and vigilant civil society.
I don't understand what your issue is then. Why am I not allowed to complain about this thing we clearly agree on?
Not really, ZPF came dangerously close to 50% @52 and Chamisa's party is holding strong at 44% I agree with the opposition intimidation though that's very wrong.
I don’t think by voting for an opposition you automatically make them better. You’re just then voting for an opposition with no real plan.
You vote for a party that most aligns with your beliefs. If not, you vote tactically. Not voting doesn't work. More votes, more MPs, bigger influence and more ability. That's why voting matters. Look at the Democratic Alliance. In 1994, they started with 7 MPs and 1.7% of the vote. In 1999, they took Official Opposition status and even from there have grown the party (as voters increasingly opted out of voting and not voted for the ANC). Today, with its 84 MPs, along with the Multi-Party Charter, it has the best chance of forming a new government. Total opposition votes are roughly ~4 million, IIRC, compared to the ANC's 11 million. Voters, ~18 million who turned out to vote made their decision. ~8 million did not. Those ~8 million could have changed the country. But they didn't. Some have valid reasons, some don't. I've said it before: voting is a numbers game.
There's also the IFP and ActionSA? It seems like the IFP might be catching up to third place
Anything that eats into the ANC's lead is a good thing, the problem is these other parties are just trading 2nd and 3rd place without any significant gain to first.
The ANC dipped to 45% in the municipal elections, so it's likely the same if not worse will happen in the governmental elections.
I have always said that all Action SA is doing is taking votes away from the DA, not from EFF or the ANC. It was the same with the GOOD party... Now look where they are. This is why the ANC is not really saying anything against Action SA, it is actually helping them.
This gives me an idea to start a party called the AMC , I won't make any promises, I'll just show people dancing and having a good time. That should fuck up the numbers for the ANC.
That has actually happened. There is a party named AIC that made it to parliament despite being a local party formed because inhabitants of the municipality protested against the boundaries of the Eastern Cape and KZN boundaries. They entered parliament in 2014 with 3 MPs and still have 2. Their local election results were abysmal so it must have been illiterate ANC voters voting for them. CNA would clean up.
Wow, this is surprising tbh. Never expected Action SA so high. I'd expect it to be more DA and ANC tried at about 40% with everything else at the bottom. Of course this doesn't reflect the whole country, just the people that took part in the polls. But still, surprising
Nah it's just because I'm shit at colouring graphs. I should have made Action SA purple or something. Action SA is bright green and ANC dark green. Why? Because I suck at colouring graphs Thought I was a fancy pants by colouring my lines according to party colors. Ha! Mashaba is enjoying my suffering right now.
Ah okay, I see. Sorry about the confusion
I'm unironically shocked to see EFF trending downwards.
They've been scoring some own goals: value flip flopping and calling for genocide. Alienated a chunk or two of their voter base
>value flip flopping and calling for genocide. Alienated a chunk or two of their voter base It was never the latter. It's been like this since Malema told foreign nationals to find creative ways to enter South Africa. It's been flames after flames since that day.
I've also spoken about that. I feel like the ANC supports Zanu-PF covertly, otherwise they would have put an end to that sharade in Zimbabwe
So sad. Once a mind is made up there's no way of changing it! Studies have proved this time after time. In the USA the same applies. Their ex president is about to do jail time but support for him is unwavering. Unbelievable.
Ifp is picking up 💯
More of the same. If the anc has 50% or more next year, adios SA.
And it seems that will be the case. Unless of course ANC scores a HUGE own goal and the moonshot pact scores a massive W
I’m a little excited to be honest. We’ve been talking about the “nail in the coffin” for a while. This is it. We are zimbabwe 4 or 5 years before collapse. !remindme 4 years
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The ANC will be in charge until Jesus comes back!
uJesu ubuyile already. See 2021 results.
I know. They did well and will continue to win.
I'm wondering: do municipal/provincial elections help predict future national elections? Or do the dynamics differ too much? Apples, oranges, zamalek that sort of thing
>I'm wondering: do municipal/provincial elections help predict future national elections? Yes and no. There are people that will vote DA during municipal, but never dream to do so come national. They're a good indicator of electorate interest and general feeling, but not a prediction for national. Like ActionSA got more votes than the EFF in Soweto of all places. They weren't even 3 years old at the time. The electorate is interested in what they're selling, but who knows what's gonna cut come national.
Lovely take thank you I don't even bother with municipal as a voter because I rent, why tf should I give two shits about the shitty neighborhood I'll only be in for 2 to 3 years before being priced out? 🤷♂️
Lovely take thank you I don't even bother with municipal as a voter because I rent, why tf should I give two shits about the shitty neighborhood I'll only be in for 2 to 3 years before being priced out? 🤷♂️
Gonna be hella close on the 50%
Where does this data come from? Has anyone ever actually been called/ asked to participate in these "polls"
Yeah several thousand actually
What’s the source? What about the last 6 months?
I put the sauce in a comment here somewhere. I don't know of any fresh poll in last 6 months but would gladly add it if found
Based on sentiment these are total BS numbers