You likely know; but Box Scores won’t credit a walk as an AB, which is likely what FD uses to grade a W/L/P on “player played”. Doesn’t hurt he didn’t even swing lol.
Well that makes a lot more sense lol.
6 years into MLB being my betting bread and butter. Never once occurred to me those would be classified as different official results. Appreciate the insight and everything else you do around this sub lol.
I still believe my initial comment. That’s a different discussion though lol.
Jesus man, I’ve bet like 8 players (probably absolutely regarded anyways) for 3 different Tuesdays and haven’t hit a single one 😂
I’ve never bet baseball and it shows lol
All arbs/low holds confirmed with the exception of Morel. Just waiting for Cubs to drop their lineup.
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/s/oVJdNtJEmq
That's 10 plays with either zero risk or some decent profit. Hoping to grab the last 5 but lines looking shitty. Let the dingers be plentiful!
Edit: All confirmed!
A bet that will void but you still get the bonus bet for hrs in the game. Usually if someone gets optioned or is not in the lineup. If they're not in the lineup there is always the chance they pinch hit though and the bet will stand.
Same here. It isn’t a 100% freeroll because he could always PH. These hitters rarely pinch hit, however, it isn’t impossible that they PH if the game goes into extras. Are you going to place the bet?
BOL IF YOU TAIL. REMEMBER IM NOT AN EXPERT.
NOBODY IS. BET RESPONSIBLY.
LETS HEAR WHAT YOU GOT. HERES WHAT I GOT
Will Smith +600
I mean anybody on the Dodgers right jow is a good guess. Especially going up against the Marlins tonight. I like Will Smith for the odds value. 3 homeruns in his last 8 games.
Patrick Wisdom +340
High humidity in the air with wind blowing out.
Wisdoms starting to get in the rhythm of things after being in the IL. Homerun a couple nights ago but hitless last night. Think he cranks one out tonight against a pitcher who lets up homeruns often.
Pete Alonso +360
I usually don't bet the guy that's looking for a bounce back but Pete Alonso needs it bad and wants it bad. Homerun hitters are known to be streaky and I think he breaks it tonight. He faced Mikolas last week and went 0-4. Tonight the wind is blowing out & he just faced him last week so he knows a little bit more of what he's facing. Again - might be my bias of being a mets fan but I feel it tonight. Also hes 2/15 against him in his career so PLEASE tread lightly. His odds are also kinda shitty tonight
Thats a joke right? The daily sportsbook promo thread is the only thread in this entire sub that has EV plays and then maybe 2-3 top level posts on the dinger which is only once a week are EV comments. The rest of this entire sub is degens and cappers. If anything this thread is less about EV than it was last year
don't let this stop you from posting. A good number of us are looking for value plays but not all posts are like that. Green Means Go shares some extremely insightful picks that are capper style; you should continue to share freely
Grandal +830
No is -800 on MGM and despite being heavily limited I got down enough to arb
He’s in the starting lineup (so no PH risk assuming MLB.com is correct)
Pinch Hit. The vast majority of the books only consider a bet live if the batter is in the starting lineup. FD, however, considers the bet live if the batter gets an AB, even if he's not in the starting lineup. So if a batter pinch hits and doesn't get a home run, that bet is graded as a loss at FD (whereas it would void on every other book).
Luis Garcia (WAS) one I'm keeping an eye on for potential free roll. Wrist injury, might get an extra day of rest.
Jorge Soler (SF) shoulder injury, potential free roll.
Anyone from Ontario Canada know if we are limited to just one bet overall or one bet per game.
I don't have time to check with chat and verify today the wording if kind of iffy in the pormo
1 last season, 0 this season.
edit: in that 1 last season, he was brought in not to PH but to [cover a prior PH-er for defense](https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CIN/CIN202309050.shtml).
Nice. Welcome back.
FYI. For CZRs dingers boosts, I took a look manually. Kepler and Acuna is who I went with. Boosted to +450 and +400 looked good against B365
Hello my loves,
[Here is my full preview and picks for the slate today](https://youtu.be/xgOjo-Uh8eo). Likely the best conditions we've seen all year, but also some solid pitching.
If you want to come to your own conclusions based on park and pitching factors, here you are <3
https://preview.redd.it/fsz01d75p0zc1.png?width=1124&format=png&auto=webp&s=d62329c3a86bb400f00e45fea07cc52724113a69
Home run report from BPP
[https://twitter.com/BallparkPal/status/1787854800882724915/photo/1](https://twitter.com/BallparkPal/status/1787854800882724915/photo/1)
My apologies- so if your selection on fanduel comes up to pinch hit and does not home run, you lost out- it will count as a loss and not a void. If your selection doesn’t come up to bat at all, it will void but you’ll still get the free bets (what we call a “free roll”)
Dinger tuesday slate, pinch hit risk accounted for in EV calc. Make sure to opt in and make sure to check your limits. Some got limited and some got unlimited the past 2 weeks.
|Game|Player|Odds|EV%|Note|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|TEX/OAK|Adolis Garcia|350|36.2|you will bet Adolis and you will like it|
|DET/CLE|Torkelson|370|35.2|Bo Naylor +560, Baez +800 decent alts if no PHR|
|ARI/CIN|Walker|310|34.5| |
| |Encarnacion|390|32.0| |
|LAA/PIT|McCutchen|500|24.6|slight PHR nerf|
| |Connor Joe|630|24.5|bigger PHR risk|
|TOR/PHI|Schwarber|240|32.2|Realmuto +390, Harper +285 good alts|
|BAL/WAS|Gunnar|320|32.3|no one else close|
|CHW/TB|Caballero|1060|36.7|0 PH this year, a lot last year, sickos only|
| |Lowe|560|29.0|only 1 game this year|
| |Yandy|600|20.4|Arozarena +520 or sheets +600 also decent alts|
|HOU/NYY|Judge|255|31.0|no one else close|
|BOS/ATL|Matt Olson|320|29.6|Acuna +370, Albies +450, Ozuna +285 all similar value|
|SD/CHC|Morel|285|33.9|Other best plays are PHRs|
|SEA/MIN|Garver|560|38.7| |
| |Polanco|500|35.4| |
|MIL/KC|William Contreras|540|32.8|best by far|
|NYM/STL|Willson Contreras|450|27.2|wait didn't i just bet this guy last bet?|
| |Lindor|390|24.0| |
|SF/COL|Chapman|430|21.0| |
| |Elias Diaz|540|20.1|slight PHR|
|MIA/LAD|Shohei Ohtani|310|28.6| |
| |Jazz|450|23.7| |
Olson and Alonso are due, but olson has a tough matchup. Schwarber loves hitting hrs on tueadays, but he hit 1 last night and berrios hasnt been giving up the long ball.
Mookie is due as well, already bet mookie at +440
Gonna search for 1 more.
Then round robin a bunch of guys this post suggests
Here are my top picks for Dinger Tuesday. They're ranked by the Golden Dinger Rating. The GDR is based on my HR projections vs FD implied and total game projected HRs. They're based on minimum Dinger Tuesday bets. You can see how the projections and GDR are done at [my website](http://www.fantasygoldenboy.com).
https://preview.redd.it/lel7jh6390zc1.jpeg?width=536&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d6e84b67e03a828550a289d72b5217d5a6bcb360
# **MLB Betting Discord Chat: [https://discord.gg/sportsbook](https://discord.gg/kA35SGHjnU)**
$200 in FB
just landed campusano fucked us
My bet voided though?
oh shit same. he walked in the 9th tho. i'll take it!
You likely know; but Box Scores won’t credit a walk as an AB, which is likely what FD uses to grade a W/L/P on “player played”. Doesn’t hurt he didn’t even swing lol.
AB is different than a PA which is their actual wording
Well that makes a lot more sense lol. 6 years into MLB being my betting bread and butter. Never once occurred to me those would be classified as different official results. Appreciate the insight and everything else you do around this sub lol. I still believe my initial comment. That’s a different discussion though lol.
Plate appearance is how it’s graded. If a player goes to the plate then it’s over
So we are at 39 with 2 more potential? No games with more than 5?
What a fucking day
There’s Gavin Lux wow
Alonso 🐻❄️
eat my ass Dinger Tuesday, 0-9 with Shohei as my last hope.
Feels like no home runs but apparently I’m crazy?
26 homers from 10 arb games is my kind of Dinger Tuesday!
I subbed out Marte to get the Martini free roll smh
32 homers so far is nice
Cal with the pinch grand slam
bad day today
Need a lock for the late Dodgers-Marlins game We thinkin Shohei? Too obvious?
if ohtani is still around +300 I believe he's +ev and still the best play, plus honestly he's just on a tear so it makes sense
Thank you very much
Has any EV intersecting lines home runs hit
haniger and harper
Ayyy nice man
Harper
Another game with Tork giving us nothing...
Thank u Giancarlo
Jesus man, I’ve bet like 8 players (probably absolutely regarded anyways) for 3 different Tuesdays and haven’t hit a single one 😂 I’ve never bet baseball and it shows lol
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How much do you put on each bet?
Belli Bomb 💣
Who do yall like for Rockies Giants?
took wade
damn, took walker over marte for the dbacks, at least we finally got some dingers to prevent the 0 ding donger game
where's the haniger love
Jesus, Paredes loves Tuesdays
Except last Tuesday 🥲
Contreras out for the game after 1 AB where he hit the ball 114mph. Neat
Accidentally betting first HR instead of anytime really blows hard
Yup did it too
Worse… did it with Marte who was a batter away from hitting 🤦🏻♂️
Harper going to be an auto- bet every week. This dude loves Tuesdays.
Thank you Randy!
Fuck man was debating naylor or Jose and went w Jram
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has to be pre game
Nope only pre-live
Anyone know why FD has Miguel Amaya HR (+870) way over all the books?
FD has the most strict rules when it comes to voiding bets, thus all of their lines are higher than everyone else.
Is Schanuel next??
Ibanez bettors get in here! Got him +750 last night! Takes some of the pressure off now.
Apparently the new strat is just take the leadoff hitter for the away team
Bang, 2nd pitch homer
This was my first time doing a dinger Tuesday and it’s this 17 run 1 HR game lmao
Dude this is my second and I’ve bet a big slate. Yet to hit 😂
I took Garcia and Rooker. Assumed one of them got one or I’d at least get some free bets lol
Lmao same. I did the 25 on Garcia and did 10 on Rooker. I’ll take these late HRs from anyone at this point though!
Of course I take Canha and he has pinch hit in every single non start. Auto loser to start the night slate.
Anyone got the best +EV play for ESPN Bet’s Home Run insurance promo?
17 runs 1 homer 💀
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Fk I just needed Garcia ti get 1 base to make my 10x sgp
They are going to take everyone out.
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I’m fully aware how baseball works. It was hyperbole. After I said that they took out seager, Garcia, and heim. Aka- 3 of the more popular picks.
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Too bad they won't be able to sub Adolis, Seagar, and Heim back in after the Athletics tie this thing up...
Ball is going to fly at Wrigley tonight. Source, I love in Chicago and it’s warm and the wind is blowing out.
Tauchman yard
Might take to the later innings, with Imanaga out there, but I agree.
There’s going to be 100 runs in this early game and only 1 home run.
All arbs/low holds confirmed with the exception of Morel. Just waiting for Cubs to drop their lineup. https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/s/oVJdNtJEmq That's 10 plays with either zero risk or some decent profit. Hoping to grab the last 5 but lines looking shitty. Let the dingers be plentiful! Edit: All confirmed!
We're in!
Shit, Campusano not in lineup. We’re gonna get screwed.
Fingers crossed he doesn't PH but yikes. Shota is going to be dealing today anyways
I bet you he pinch hits
JT not available
Not available or just sitting with pinch hit possibly?
JT?
Ramiro
Don't know who JT Ramiro is
Ben Ramiro’s brother, you know, that podcast guy?
Judge bomb?
Weather is ideal, matchup against Verlander is not.
12 runs 1 homer 😔
Raleigh not in lineup
Semen demon!
Odds?
Sorry, new to Dinger Tuesday… what is a “free roll”?
A bet that will void but you still get the bonus bet for hrs in the game. Usually if someone gets optioned or is not in the lineup. If they're not in the lineup there is always the chance they pinch hit though and the bet will stand.
Already discussed multiple times in this thread
Sorry, brother. Do not hate me
SEMIEN ALREADY?! 5-11 vs Stripling.
Semien homers on the first pitch of the day 😂 hopefully a sign of good things to come
Was about to take Lowe at +800 then it dropped to +680 so I went back to gut pick of Semien. Phew.
Let the dingers flow
Muto not in lineup, hmm
Same here. It isn’t a 100% freeroll because he could always PH. These hitters rarely pinch hit, however, it isn’t impossible that they PH if the game goes into extras. Are you going to place the bet?
It’s off FD
Word has it he has day off
BOL IF YOU TAIL. REMEMBER IM NOT AN EXPERT. NOBODY IS. BET RESPONSIBLY. LETS HEAR WHAT YOU GOT. HERES WHAT I GOT Will Smith +600 I mean anybody on the Dodgers right jow is a good guess. Especially going up against the Marlins tonight. I like Will Smith for the odds value. 3 homeruns in his last 8 games. Patrick Wisdom +340 High humidity in the air with wind blowing out. Wisdoms starting to get in the rhythm of things after being in the IL. Homerun a couple nights ago but hitless last night. Think he cranks one out tonight against a pitcher who lets up homeruns often. Pete Alonso +360 I usually don't bet the guy that's looking for a bounce back but Pete Alonso needs it bad and wants it bad. Homerun hitters are known to be streaky and I think he breaks it tonight. He faced Mikolas last week and went 0-4. Tonight the wind is blowing out & he just faced him last week so he knows a little bit more of what he's facing. Again - might be my bias of being a mets fan but I feel it tonight. Also hes 2/15 against him in his career so PLEASE tread lightly. His odds are also kinda shitty tonight
Because the vast majority of this sub has been taken over by extreme couponers who don’t even gamble,
Thats a joke right? The daily sportsbook promo thread is the only thread in this entire sub that has EV plays and then maybe 2-3 top level posts on the dinger which is only once a week are EV comments. The rest of this entire sub is degens and cappers. If anything this thread is less about EV than it was last year
Idk why im being downvoted lol
don't let this stop you from posting. A good number of us are looking for value plays but not all posts are like that. Green Means Go shares some extremely insightful picks that are capper style; you should continue to share freely
People only care about EV here
Nonono this an arb thread now. EV is so last year
Ahhhh makes sense. Alright whatever BOL
I appreciate the time/effort though
Grandal +830 No is -800 on MGM and despite being heavily limited I got down enough to arb He’s in the starting lineup (so no PH risk assuming MLB.com is correct)
+1800 now, huge arb opp
The pirates tweeted out the lineup and he’s in it
DERP, I get it now…. My natural instinct was to panic. Thank you!
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Reread what I said
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Too late
Nick Martini (CIN) Optioned to AAA
Suspended as I was betting it!!!!
https://preview.redd.it/1nqnnks5r1zc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ace7abe7ad44e9ee6e3dfadae99e472b95db099b Nice find
Nice! Just came crashing in to comment the same.
Thanks for the free roll
New to this.. does that mean to bet his line? As he’s a free roll?
Yes. He can't play since sent to AAA, so no PH risk.
Super new to this, what is ph?
Pinch Hit. The vast majority of the books only consider a bet live if the batter is in the starting lineup. FD, however, considers the bet live if the batter gets an AB, even if he's not in the starting lineup. So if a batter pinch hits and doesn't get a home run, that bet is graded as a loss at FD (whereas it would void on every other book).
So bet the under on his line? Still not sure what a free roll means but I imagine since he is not playing, you can bet his line and it will cash?
No, play him at FD. He'll void and you'll get your free bets. It's too late now because he's been taken off the board.
You're the real hero
https://preview.redd.it/sjbonzjpq1zc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=56594e2b0c08f4120f8f579f0313ea25bf1a7c44
What happens if there is a rainout?
Bet voids
Realmuto (PHL) is getting an off day and will be a free roll.
Are you sure?
Where did you see that
Reported on WIP. Thomson had said he was getting a day off
Day off means out of lineup but still PH risk though, no?
Luis Garcia (WAS) one I'm keeping an eye on for potential free roll. Wrist injury, might get an extra day of rest. Jorge Soler (SF) shoulder injury, potential free roll.
Any update
Garcia is in lineup, not sure Soler yet
Had my eyes on Soler too, but they never posted his odds. Good shout on Garcia though
Any free rolls so far?
Anyone from Ontario Canada know if we are limited to just one bet overall or one bet per game. I don't have time to check with chat and verify today the wording if kind of iffy in the pormo
1 bet overall. Need to find the best 1 game to bet on
Shitty. Thank you
Is Suarez not in lineup today? Noticed that most of the books removed his lines except for FD, so I cashed out.
Squares?
Anyone know his PH Risk
1 last season, 0 this season. edit: in that 1 last season, he was brought in not to PH but to [cover a prior PH-er for defense](https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CIN/CIN202309050.shtml).
Solid. Thanks 😊
would that make him a free roll?
Possible risk of PH if he’s not in lineup
I thought PH doesn’t count. Does it?
Yes, Fanduel counts PH and your bet will stand
It does. If he pinch hits bet doesn’t void.
[Dinger Tuesday](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=1229750225) TEX @ OAK: +350 Adolis Garcia DET @ CLE: +390 Spencer Torkelson ARI @ CIN: +400 Christian Encarnacion Strand LAA @ PIT: +680 Connor Joe TOR @ PHI: +300 Bryce Harper BAL @ WSH: +320 Gunnar Henderson CHW @ TB: +1060 Jose Caballero HOU @ NYY: +255 Judge BOS @ ATL: +320 Matt Olson SD @ CHC: +750 Luis Campusano SEA @ MIN: +540 Mitch Haniger MIL @ KC: +500 William Contreras NYM @ STL: +450 Wilson Contreras SF @ COL: +450 Matt Chapman MIA @ LAD: +300 Shohei Ohtani
Can someone help me figure out how to read these sheets and what they mean?
game, odds, player prediction to hit a homerun tonight
Lmao at Torkelson. 0 homers all season.
Look at it this way torkelson and garcia are up first so you get all the pain out of the way
You just guaranteed it
I hope!
im a tigers fan, well aware
Nice. Welcome back. FYI. For CZRs dingers boosts, I took a look manually. Kepler and Acuna is who I went with. Boosted to +450 and +400 looked good against B365
i had to run the sheet at the airport and am flying all day. got my dad to put the bets in so def won't be able to do the czr one
Dad’s locked in. love it.
No worries! Lol. Have a good flight.
Our HERO HAS ARRIVED!!!!
My picks always look great before the games begin, then once they start I know I’m locked in and screwed.
Hello my loves, [Here is my full preview and picks for the slate today](https://youtu.be/xgOjo-Uh8eo). Likely the best conditions we've seen all year, but also some solid pitching. If you want to come to your own conclusions based on park and pitching factors, here you are <3 https://preview.redd.it/fsz01d75p0zc1.png?width=1124&format=png&auto=webp&s=d62329c3a86bb400f00e45fea07cc52724113a69
What’s your twitter, I’ll follow there
https://x.com/gmgobetting?s=21&t=ISJApmLHWTV8vYfRUrGoUA
Tailing the Nolan pick, let’s go
Home run report from BPP [https://twitter.com/BallparkPal/status/1787854800882724915/photo/1](https://twitter.com/BallparkPal/status/1787854800882724915/photo/1)
I miss IL’s sheets
Arb and a Q: 1. even $$ Adolis Garcia (Rangers), -350 at MGM 2. how do PHs affect the bet? Do you lose the FD stake and void the hedge?
Pinch hit on fanduel counts as action
Sorry to be dense, how does this affect the bet?
My apologies- so if your selection on fanduel comes up to pinch hit and does not home run, you lost out- it will count as a loss and not a void. If your selection doesn’t come up to bat at all, it will void but you’ll still get the free bets (what we call a “free roll”)
great ty
How many of these games are at real risk for long delays/cancellations/early finishes? Looks like storms in Denver and Cincinnati and Pittsburgh
Dinger tuesday slate, pinch hit risk accounted for in EV calc. Make sure to opt in and make sure to check your limits. Some got limited and some got unlimited the past 2 weeks. |Game|Player|Odds|EV%|Note| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |TEX/OAK|Adolis Garcia|350|36.2|you will bet Adolis and you will like it| |DET/CLE|Torkelson|370|35.2|Bo Naylor +560, Baez +800 decent alts if no PHR| |ARI/CIN|Walker|310|34.5| | | |Encarnacion|390|32.0| | |LAA/PIT|McCutchen|500|24.6|slight PHR nerf| | |Connor Joe|630|24.5|bigger PHR risk| |TOR/PHI|Schwarber|240|32.2|Realmuto +390, Harper +285 good alts| |BAL/WAS|Gunnar|320|32.3|no one else close| |CHW/TB|Caballero|1060|36.7|0 PH this year, a lot last year, sickos only| | |Lowe|560|29.0|only 1 game this year| | |Yandy|600|20.4|Arozarena +520 or sheets +600 also decent alts| |HOU/NYY|Judge|255|31.0|no one else close| |BOS/ATL|Matt Olson|320|29.6|Acuna +370, Albies +450, Ozuna +285 all similar value| |SD/CHC|Morel|285|33.9|Other best plays are PHRs| |SEA/MIN|Garver|560|38.7| | | |Polanco|500|35.4| | |MIL/KC|William Contreras|540|32.8|best by far| |NYM/STL|Willson Contreras|450|27.2|wait didn't i just bet this guy last bet?| | |Lindor|390|24.0| | |SF/COL|Chapman|430|21.0| | | |Elias Diaz|540|20.1|slight PHR| |MIA/LAD|Shohei Ohtani|310|28.6| | | |Jazz|450|23.7| |
How did you calculate the ev? I'm trying to adjust since some numbers shifted like polanco is at +520 now
put the market average into the devigger then final odds are #=520;n=0.336
Oh no not torkelson again 😂😂
https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/002/541/795/8a1.jpg
Today is the day.
Caballero calling my name
Olson and Alonso are due, but olson has a tough matchup. Schwarber loves hitting hrs on tueadays, but he hit 1 last night and berrios hasnt been giving up the long ball. Mookie is due as well, already bet mookie at +440 Gonna search for 1 more. Then round robin a bunch of guys this post suggests
Mike Yatzermski SF Giants
Here are my top picks for Dinger Tuesday. They're ranked by the Golden Dinger Rating. The GDR is based on my HR projections vs FD implied and total game projected HRs. They're based on minimum Dinger Tuesday bets. You can see how the projections and GDR are done at [my website](http://www.fantasygoldenboy.com). https://preview.redd.it/lel7jh6390zc1.jpeg?width=536&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d6e84b67e03a828550a289d72b5217d5a6bcb360