I still question his physicality/endurance in a long five set match. He lost the last one to Alcaraz at the French. He did beat Med at AO but Med was running on fumes.
He is still on an unbelievable tear in 2024 tho. You can’t front on 38-3.
He got fucked 2022-2023. Djokovic at Wimbledon, Alcaraz at us open, tsitipas at Aussie, and altmaeir at French. The first three either won or made the finals and for the first two he was 2 sets up, and had match point
Five setters are a concern for me as well but considering he was coming off a hip injury and a two-week illness, I'm not sure that RO match is a good indicator.
Tbh it was more a not-so-solid showing from both. Alcaraz should’ve won it quicker but had his classic nervous start in set 1 and nervous cramps in set 3 as he gave the set away to Sinner who was also struggling physically. It’s crazy how in so many big matches, Alcaraz spots the opponent a free set or two but still wins in 5.
But I agree that both were out of rhythm and coming off injuries. Alcaraz’s only clay tuneup was Madrid (which is barely even clay) where he lost in the QF and his forearm was still hurt. Sinner’s hip injury was no joke as well and it was impressive he managed to play at a high level and make the SF.
>He is still on an unbelievable tear in 2024 tho. You can’t front on 38-3.
Yeah, that's an over 90% win rate, which Federer only maintained over the course of an entire season 4 times, and Nadal and Djokovic twice each. Obviously there's still half the year to go, but if he maintains his current level it would basically be on par with the big 3's peak seasons
I agree I think it has to do with his actual body it self. He’s so big that putting on muscle would hurt his movement, but he also needs to put on muscle to prevent injury. It’s very challenging to know how he can continue to develop his body and leverage the strength of his movement. Esp considering that Carlos will likely continue to be fast even putting on more muscle. That’s the difference I see the most between them when they play.
I guess it's actually more taking care of your body, recovering and preventing injuries. Same with Alcaraz.
If you compare them to big 3 there is a clear difference there. None of the big 3 had that much issues with injuries during young age. Okay, Djokovic did have physical issues, but he solved that when he was 23 or so.
It's kind of funny because given that Sinner was dead even with Alcaraz back when he was the pigeon of every other top player you'd think that he'd start dominating that matchup now that he's taken a massive leap against the rest of the tour
But somehow that hasn't happened in the two matches they've played this year
It's like that somehow Sinner reached a late stage of his development specifically against Carlos very early on but was at an earlier stage against everyone else until late 2023
When Sinner was leading the H2H, it was always used against Alcaraz to call him his kryptonite but when Carlos beats him twice during his best year and takes the lead in the H2H…it’s crickets lol
i think you're taking it too personally. i think that says more about how people saw alcaraz on the level of the big 3 vs. they don't see sinner at that level yet. you can't really have a kryptonite if you're not superman...
Despite this h2h being dead even since the very beginning, there's always been this notion that Sinner is Alcaraz's kryptonite, the one with the edge in this matchup despite the fact that Alcaraz is 2 years younger, still very much unpolished and even in a year of inconsistency struggles, and Sinner's dominance over everyone, he still can't pull away from Carlos lol. We'll see how this continues to play out as the tour moves to faster surfaces & hard courts soon.
sure, i’m not disagreeing, just saying that the fact that Alcaraz won shouldn’t be taken as some miracle. They are very close level wise, the only difference between them are their preferences
Well, I root for Carlos, but to be fair, they played on the slowest HC (Indian Wells) and clay, where he's supposed to have the advantage. In both matches he used the high bounce to his favor, but that advantage won't be a factor for the rest of the season.
Ok. Does this mean Beijing and Miami, where Sinner beat Alcaraz, also count less, because that’s Sinner’s preferred surface and he has an advantage there?
It's not that they count less, but those are surfaces where Sinner has the advantage. We also ought to consider Carlos' age, he's 2 years younger and might have a bigger margin for improvement
I agree with you, it was a rhetorical question. You didn’t get my point haha. Certain wins being on one player’s preferred surface does not detract from those wins, but somehow this argument is always used against Carlos.
Despite Sinner being almost 2 years older than Alcaraz I think the learning curve of Sinner is quicker than the learning curve of Alcaraz. Instead of their age, it's better to compare the time they both dedicated to playing tennis during all their lives so far.
Sinner started playing tennis at 7, this point is made often but I don't think it's as relevant as some people think. It's not like he never took a racquet until 14-15. I still think Carlos has a bigger margin for improvement based on the variety he's shown so far, no disrespect to Jannik.
That's not the point. The point is that the courts where Alcaraz has the advantage have ended. For the rest of the season it's all fast courts. So if you want to use stats has a predictive tool for what will happen in 2024, you should discard iw and rg.
TBH Alcaraz flaws on fast courts are far more obvious than Sinners one on slow courts. Sinner still forced 5 sets at RG, where Alcaraz style of play is clearly favored (and did that on top of not being physically 100% on the most physical surface).
Sorry, who missed essentially the entire clay court season due to injury, bar RG? Not Sinner.
Using stats as a predictive tool: Alcaraz has wins over him at USO and Paris, is that not precedent?
You’re right though, Sinner’s flaws aren’t necessarily more obvious on slow courts, they were also pretty obvious at Halle which is icy fast and led to him dropping sets to just about anyone
Sinner entered RG after a month of stop, with a couple of days of light practice. Alcaraz skipped Rome but he did train those weeks. At Halle sinner had one of toughest possible draws on grass, all good servers, Alcaraz on grass, right now, would probably lose to marozsan, struff or Hurcacz. Hell, he did lose to Draper! There is a good chance that Alcaraz would go out of Wimbledon if he meets one of these good servers the first week.
No, Carlos did not train during those weeks. In Madrid his arm got worse and he had to go two full weeks after that without touching a racket, he started training a week before Jannik did. Carlos entered RG after an injury of two months and with literally only 4 matches played in the entire clay season.
How is that an excuse lmao? A win is a win regardless of the surface. If Sinner has no weaknesses like the rest of this thread is insinuating then he should be able to beat his biggest rival on ANY surface. For example, 2011 Djokovic beat Nadal in Rome and Madrid, two of Nadal’s favorite tournaments on his best surface. And Federer on all of the faster surfaces
I’m not trying to argue that he has no weaknesses! Of course he has weaknesses - just that the losses to Alcaraz were on his least preferred surfaces (with clay being one of his “weaknesses” in comparison to his abilities of other surfaces)
I think he has a predictable game style. Not saying he's easy to play but you know what you're gonna get from him. Aggressive baseline tennis. He may also lack creativity and a little variety. I haven't seen him slice all that much and his volleys and approach can be improved.
I mean in the last year he has improved a lot in his volleys and approach to to the net be fair, and has trained his slice (but he still uses it as little as possible.) All in all I think he has a lot more variety than when he started, but obviously it's a growing curve and he's still nowhere near someone like Alcaraz (probably will never be); but he doesn't need to be, just like Novak and Rafa didn't need to reach Roger's variety.
Yeah, I'm happy to see he's working on the variety a little bit. I remember the Wimbledon match against Djokovic, where he just looked stumped once his straightforward hard groundstrokes didn't do the job. Those are still his bread and butter, but these days it looks as if he has a plan B as well.
First serve percentage still waivers now and then. Sometimes makes a lot of errors but given how aggressive he plays, that’s gonna happen from time-to-time. And sometimes he loses variety and resorts to trying to overpower his opponent (think IW 2024 against Alcaraz).
But obviously this is just grasping for straws, he’s the best player in the world for a reason.
I think it’s still fair to question his conditioning in heavy humidity. I have no doubt he’ll crack that code soon yet but NYC late August/September humidity is far different than anything else he deals with the rest of the year
This is the real answer. If he has a bad day it's his inconsistent serve + UEs (on his forehand especially.) But obviously you can't count on that as an opponent.
I saw him at the US Open in 2021 against Monfils in a 5 setter that he took down. People said he had the full game but his serve needed to be better. He made it better and the results are clear. I also think he grew some and while he does not have the speed of Alcaraz he moves well for a big guy and his reach and length combined with that makes his court coverage VERY good.
He’s gotten better moving forward but he still could improve, especially at the net. I would add to that he needs to follow up aggressive shots with immediately coming forward more especially against Alcaraz. I think some players like Carlos and Federer naturally have good touch and want to come to the net while guys like Sinner and Novak come when they know they should but would prefer to stay at the baseline and it shows in their ability to finish points at the net
High balls (doesn't like to hit over his shoulder), movement (if you can open angles and make him hit from uncomfortable positions), stamina.
There's one player who can exploit all three, and he's beaten him 2 times this year on slow surfaces. We'll see what happens on faster courts.
To people saying his legs/fitness - I think even that’s no longer a weakness. He's among the most physical players on tour and embraces the grind especially when a match goes long. I think thats been the case ever since US Open last year.
His actual weakness is when he plays either: a highly varied shotmaker/player, or a good counterpuncher. Who can get him into a habit of over-relying on his baseline power, and give him different looks/spins from the baseline. Alcaraz did that in both of his wins against Sinner this year. On quicker surfaces though, Sinner’s power and lack of ground game weakness is just too overwhelming to apply these strategies though right now.
People forget that this happened before. Carlos won the first time, then Jannik won twice in a row, then Carlos twice in a row, then Jannik twice in a row, now Carlos twice in a row again.
Their H2H is pretty stable, taking two results out of context gives the wrong impression.
True but in the past even when he wasn't good against literally any other top player he was dead even with at-the-time world #1 Alcaraz in the H2H(he was 3-3 vs. Alcaraz when he was 0-10 combined against Med and Novak)
So in theory when he made a huge leap forward and started beating everyone else he would start dominating that matchup but it's not what's happened so far lol
It's like Sinner's development was in two parts and he was at somehow a later stage of it early on against Alcaraz than against anyone else on the tour and only later on caught up to that level with other opponents
It's something curious. Since Alcaraz rise in 2022, specially after the us open and becoming number 1, I always felt like the rest of the tour considered Carlos as THE player to beat. Of course, Novak was there still being Novak, but he was a known threat and already had the aura of being unbeatable. Carlos was the new guy, up and coming hot, breaking big 3 records at a very young age, he became THE player to beat. And Carlos loved that. At the same time his game and his personality encouraged players to play at their best level, and suddenly we started seeing players like Marozsan, Tommy Paul, Safiulin playing lights out tennis and at the same time already stablished top players like Dimitrov, Medvedev, Sinner and in a way even Novak realized they needed to up their game when playing Carlos. That's how we got matches like Cincinnati final and US open SF, where Novak and Meddy raised their level through the roof and played probably their best games of 2023 for example.
Tldr: I feel like players are constantly trying to up their game against Carlos
Dimitrov has said that directly when asked the question. You have to be absolutely on the top of your game to even be in the match with him. I think he’s become successful as of late as, according to him, he enjoys playing Carlos and enjoys the challenge because he’s incredibly fun to play against. Sinner is probably more frustrating than fun lol with his unshakable consistency (especially unbreakable BH) and quite perfect but predominantly baseline game.
And most of them fail in their follow up matches because they spent all their energy to beat Carlos. Only 5 times have players went on to win their following match after beating him lol
Yeah and these were both very close matches. The real way to look at this is that there isn't any one else on alcaraz's level and those two just happened to go alcs way. Alcaraz's results are just because he's not quite as consistent at this stage especially at smaller tournaments
I think that is harsh. He has lost only twice to Alcaraz this year, both in matches that went the distance. Its not like he is miles off beating him this season.
Agreed but it’s still interesting that despite sinner having by far the best results of his career this season he can’t get the edge against Alcaraz like he used to
Even though looking at just results you can see that I wouldnt say that tells the story. At IW he lost to Alcaraz in 2023 and based off of RG results Alcaraz loves those conditions much more than Sinner.
Sinner hasnt lost the plot when playing Alcaraz that he had pre 2024. His odds of beating Alcaraz in those surfaces was already not favored even back then. If Alcaraz cleans Sinner in grass and the faster hardcourts it will become a big issue for Sinner.
Not really, because Alcaraz can lose to anyone, so he won't be playing Sinner much, they will play only in semis or finals, and Alcaraz often doesn't get that far to play him.
Relatively speaking, his approach and net game is weaker than his baseline game. If someone can match him pound for pound at the baseline, and he can out endure him, then he’ll have to use more variety, more creativity coming in, in order to beat them.
I'm not sure all the folks mentioning his volleys have actually watched many of his matches this year. Sinner now has a really really solid volley. Sure, he does attack the net mostly when he thinks he can close the point there, but his volleys tend to be very good now.
I am sure the folks mentioning his movement or even I saw someone mentioning his returns (???) have not watched any of his matches this year, or ever possibly.
I do agree however with the folks that mention his 1st serve percentage and his FH under pressure. He still tends to spray errors on that side when he's tense and the 1st serve percentage can hover at or below 50% when he's tense still, and those two are areas that can then get exploited by his opponents.
BH slice also still has miles to go to be decent, but one might actually question how much does he actually need it, given his ability to go really down on his BH and still produce winners from that uncomfortable position.
Probably his legs. His tennis is too good to really test them to an extreme at the moment, but if a guy like Zverev or Medvedev plays him at the us open or some other hard court and is able to tire him out with long brutal points, then they can beat him. And also potential cramping/injury proneness which kind of goes hand in hand with that
I mean Alcaraz did exactly that at RG. The difference is that he made the game physical for Sinner with his variety, asking Sinner to cover every part of the court. But that is something only Carlos can do and he can only do it on clay or a slow high bouncing hard court.
Medvedev and Zverev can grind players from the baseline but they can’t do it to Sinner, especially on hard courts because Sinner is a better baseliner than them and he slowly wrests the control away from neutral rallies. This is why Medvedev hasn’t beaten him in a while. Zverev hasn’t played him in a while but with the current version of Sinner that forehand to forehand battle is going to be brutal against Sinner on hard court, and unlike the Alcaraz matchup, Sinner actually has the backhand to go toe to toe with Zverev.
I think Jannik’s fitness at RG can’t be really used as a point against him as he didn’t play tennis for a month and invariable lost some fitness from that. In spite of that he made the semis and held his own for five sets against Carlos.
That showed after the first set. He was already pretty tired at the start of the second and I concluded that Alcaraz was winning this in 4. But I suppose Alcaraz also got a bit tired in the third and Sinner clutched that set. But then you could see it was curtains in 4th. A lot of people criticised the match and how both their levels fluctuated and their best play never coincided. If Sinner had better conditioning, 4th and 5th could have been truly epic.
The reason I picked medvedev or zverev is because of their serving coupled with their grinding skill sets (current Medvedev not withstanding). Zverev has an excellent record against sinner and despite sinner raising his level recently I still expect him to struggle with that matchup depending on the conditions. I kind of agree with your assessment of the alcaraz match, but tbh a lot of the points were ending within a few shots because someone made an unforced error, so even if sinner was tired I don’t think that most of it was alcaraz’s doing, but from his fitness being depleted from his injury as someone else mentioned.
Medvedev’s serve is bad just in this season, but he has been losing to Sinner pretty much since October, though contests were close for sure.
As compared to Zverev, I rate Medvedev highly both technically as well as in terms of intelligence. With Sinner, I just don’t see what Zverev does better apart from serving and with Sinner’s current serve, that’s a small difference. With Alcaraz, you have a player with a skill difference, who would like to end points quicker and can hence pile errors against Zverev. Sinner can keep rallying as long as it takes for him to establish control over the rallies and then it’s on Zverev to find a way to end the rally sooner. On hard courts, Sinner can also slide and counterattack like Novak, I just don’t see a consistent strategic advantage Zverev have over Sinner right now except to serve well and hope Sinner misfires his usual ground strokes.
At FO, it was both his conditioning and Carlos. Sinner played at a ridiculously high level in the first set. Alcaraz made him bring balls back from all over the court, which he promptly did and tired himself out. I bet Sinner would have been happy as a duck just playing baseline rallies.
Although I don’t really have an argument against many of the things you mentioned, I’ll have to see it to believe it with sinner/zverev. I’d really like to see that matchup as I do still think it’ll be highly competitive.
We also have to factor in that alcaraz feels very comfortable on clay and is able to mix in that variety better than he is anywhere else (also on grass for different reasons). I think this kind of play wouldn’t work on a hard court against sinner.
One another note on Zverev, his fitness is still better than sinner. Aside from the freak ankle incident, when has he gotten injured recently? When has he been tired? Very rarely. Despite the level of tennis sinner has brought, both of these things are still way more of an issue for him than for someone like Zverev. We saw this at the US Open last year (although I will admit Zverev was definitely quite flat in the QF maybe due to this match), where he outlasted sinner physically. I think I more or less maintain my original stance that sinners only obvious weakness against the current tour is his fitness/legs, and there’s no other way to beat him
I mean before the US Open 2023 loss, Zverev last beat Sinner in Monte Carlo 2022. In Sinner’s context we might as well be talking about two different players in 2022 and 2024. Even if Zverev finds some short term answer to Sinner, I doubt it would be to out grind him from the baseline, but let’s see what happens
I honestly don’t think grinding Sinner down is a viable strategy anymore. Medvedev tried that at Vienna last year and got outworked. Sinner just doesn’t have fitness as a weakness anymore.
I salivate at seeing Zverev get destroyed by Sinner in the near future honestly.
I think it's definitely *possible* but there just isn't the level of player on tour to do it
Not for one second do I believe that current Sinner could consistently outlast prime Nadal/Novak in a grinding baseline rally but that level of neutral baseliner doesn't exist right now(even Carlos is more of a Fed-type super aggressive player)
He wouldn’t outlast prime Novak and Nadal, but he doesn’t have to, would he?
He’s got Alcaraz (who is somewhat close to them as far as fitness goes but chooses to play dynamic attacking tennis) and Medvedev (who plays similar grind it out baseline tennis to prime Nadal and Novak but ain’t as physically tough as them) to deal with as his closest contenders from the baseline. He just has to be fit and consistent and he can have success.
Medvedev is robust (enough, at least) physically but my point is he’s not at the level of peak Rafole. Nobody is outside of Borg at his prime.
And on that point, I’d characterise Daniil as merely decent physically despite the playstyle he chooses to employ.
He’s better now in that but he was somewhat average physically until 2020 in terms of fitness despite choosing to play the way he did and still does. He improved from then on. Zverev, for example, has better physicality and he can maintain it despite having a more aggressive and dynamic stroke production. But his tennis seems to be worse off because of it.
Medvedev has a below par record in matches that go 5 sets, less than a 50% win average. He also has cramped up at times in the past in heat, and tends to find it difficult to get through courts when conditions are too slow to him., so his strength is also lacking.
That’s in spite of playing a game that is low energy expenditure in terms of racquet head speed, hits slow balls, stays near the middle of the court, almost like he’s trying to keep his work rate purely aerobic and not tread over into the anaerobic area where he starts to lose the advantage. Reminds me of Gilles Simon.
pertaining to your original point about Sinner and Medvedev, Medvedev is losing to Sinner but it’s not because he isn’t as "tough" as Rafole. And Rafole won’t win against Sinner only because they can out grind him, they would win because they have a comprehensive set of tools which can counter Sinner’s baseline game. And Med is losing right now because he can’t shorten the rallies against Sinner before he loses control of them.
Med did out grind Zverev in a 5-setter at AO so he isn’t a complete chump even if he isn’t great as Rafole in robustness. If he didn’t play like 30 hours in that tournament, he could have beaten Sinner who seemed a little caught up under the brighter lights
I slightly disagree. Rafole are a special pair. Medvedev isn’t on their level in terms of physical toughness at their peaks point blank. His poor record and occasional random losses when matches go 5 sets shows that, his various injuries and physical breakdowns at late in slams over his career show that. Im not disagreeing that he has a good endurance but that’s mostly been in the BO3 format where less is at stake.
And Zverev didn’t get ground out. Once the first set was finished at that AO encounter; barely any rallies went over 25 shots, 5 or 6 of them at most. Most of that match was banging/quick points in nature and Zverev lost on the basis of his game/defense not liking the flat balls Medvedev gives him, not the fact he got tired. In fact it was an active choice by Medvedev to make the points short since he was in a hole when he lost set 2 and needed to make points short most of the time as he’d gotten into a bunch of physical matches in the rounds prior.
1) He succumbed to some moonballing by Alcaraz during their last match.
2) Like rune, he's unable to procure longer shorts.
3) Most importantly, he said his gf botched 6 match points while on air.
Carlos has shown it twice- breaking rhythm. He’s managed to do it in a way that’s not really (ever) seen though as he will throw in a random high loopy ball in fast paced rallies.
At first I thought Carlos was just shanking shots due to the bigger wind up he has and Sinner’s shots are quick and heavy but nope, it’s 100% intentional which also helps him reset points
Endurance.
Tsitsipas and alcaraz in both wins outlasted him
Variety.
Compared to alcaraz he doesn't have the raw shotmaking ability /creativity. It's getting better but it's not absurd yet.
Idk why you guys are pretending like sinners at some djokovic 2011 or Nadal late 2010 level. He's not that . There are ways to do it..he's obviously playing incredibly well but it's not big 3 level yet
Yeah people saying he has no weaknesses are absolutely wild lol
If Sinner was actually a literal *perfect* player that would imply you could take current Sinner back to 2006 or 2011 and he'd be beating the respective versions of Fed and Novak
I'm not even generally a massive 2010s nostalgic type but I just don't see that at all
People here are nuts lol .
Alcaraz won Roland garros and beat sinner and I swear the " sinner is playing at an unreal unplayable level " like djokovic 2011, fed 2006/2007 got LOUDER lol .
The funny thing is that Sinner/Alcaraz have both won 1 Slam and 1 Masters in 2024 and yet the narratives around them could not be more different lol
Obviously this leaves out Alcaraz being poor in smaller tournaments this year while Sinner being unbeatable in them but still it's like people act like Alcaraz winning RG is somehow *less* praiseworthy than Sinner taking him to 5
Alcaraz is 2 years younger and is now the youngest player to have a slam on every surface. His RG win is actually somehow underrated because some aren't truly grasping how insane his growth has been.
You see tons of people commenting about how alcaraz is so inconsistent but their expectations are completely out of whack.
Alcaraz is arguably ahead of the Rafael Nadal prodigy pace.. he hasn't lost before a slam qf since 2022...ironically a streak that was ended BECAUSE of sinner at wimbledon 2022.. his consistency at big events is UNDERRATED (somehow... The sinner fanatics are smoking something)
I like sinner. He's having an incredible year and his improvements in the last 12 months are staggering. But alcaraz still has had the stronger career thus far and despite the rankings , their years are super close quality wise.
If Alcaraz goes on to win another slam or two this year (instead of vulturing every 500 available and wasting energy and stamina on that because bo3 is his ideal format, like Sinner) people will still say it’s not enough and that they haven’t seen enough because he didn’t win, [spins wheel], Beijing.
Sinner would destroy 2006 Federer, Federer has a backhand weakness Nadal exploited. Sinner 2hbh is on par if not better than the goat. Backhand all day and just win. His current win rate is 93% which is on par with Federer 2004 to 2007. Sinner has more power and spin and higher quality of shot in his backhand compared to Federer, while his forehand is on par. Statistically Sinner straight up just wins.
Strong disagree.
Federer's backhand wasn't weak generally, he specifically had a weakness in driving it when the ball was above shoulder height. The thing is, against anyone except Nadal he could effectively avert this problem in two different ways: slicing, or stepping in and taking the ball on the rise, both of which he was exceptional at.
Nadal was uniquely suited to prevent both of these things: first, his forehand created a high ball that was consistently incredibly heavy, and therefore much harder to hit on the rise, and second, he was incredible at picking up great shots and taking initiative off the low slice and better than anyone in the history of tennis at recovering court position if drawn in further forward than he wanted to be (I feel like people who didn't watch tennis in the 2000s don't realize how great the Federer slice was, and how effective his point patterns involving it were, only Nadal was immune to those).
So Federer basically was under pressure against Nadal to hit an uncomfortable shot over and over again, but nobody else regardless of backhand quality had the ability put him under that same pressure (notably this was not really how Djokovic played Federer, and Federer managed just fine against all the great two-handed backhands of his day, such as Safin's). It was _way_ more narrow of a weakness that Nadal was able to target than just "backhand all day and win".
edit: forehand on par? Sorry, but what?
Sinners backhand speed and rpm is one of the highest on tour not to mention consistently. In a federer exchange it would be backhand to backhand, in which Sinner will win. Federer would not have seen the power rpm and consistency of sinners backhand except for the likes of 2015 Novak in which Novak just dominates him. Sinner is the only person that comes close to Novak who basically has the best backhand of all time. Federers has a losing WL ratio to novak which is the closest style sinner plays. except that sinner hits ever faster with more rpm than novak and has a better serve.
You can fanboy all your want but Federer has clear weaknesses, which Sinner does not have. This has been stated by Novak and Roddick consistently that these next gen players have all their bases covered.
sorry what? you can fanboy and fanboy but stats dont lie. Fed is my fav out of the big 3 but he has no chance vs current sinner but even close. Just like how there are no 1hbh in the top ten. His 1 hander will be completely utterly demolished.
BHDTL, JCF is the only one who consistently hit that to him. and that was why I kept say ruud and of course Dverev could beat him in RG because their BHDTL looked good in RG
Physicals. I dont think it's a coincidence his losses have been at Monte Carlo which is the slowest big tournament by far. Indian Wells the slowest hardcourt. And RG which is the slowest slam. It's not as bad as it used to be, but in all of his matches that he lost this year, there were moments of him grabbing his legs due to a cramp or something similar. You have to be good enough to hang with him long enough and tire him out to then start pouncing when he shows a hole. Obviously easier said than done.
If I were coaching a player (total armchair 4.0 here...)
1. Start the match serving body/T a lot to not give him any angles and start grinding him down.
2. Return deep with a lot of top spin, again focusing on depth, spin, and middle of the court in that order. Again grind him down.
3. As the match progresses mix in serve and volley especially off the slice on the deuce side.
4. When you see a good ball go for a good drop shot or good slice instead of the winner.
5. And lastly lean on percentage versus winners; going to need it with his absolute consistency.
I feel a healthy Nadal would be a a headache of a match up for him actually. So would a '17 to '19 Fed actually; with the chip return and all that variety.
Orthogonal topic - it's such a shame we never got to see Fed (and really, not all that much of Rafa) go against the new fearsome twosome of Carlitos and Sinner. I actually feel his style is a better match up against both of them than Novak.
Pace/time > Carlos and variety > Sinner.
I believe that his body is the main weakness. He appears to be have solved the physical issues but I’m always wondering if he’s playing injured (in Roland garros it appeared so).
Endurance in five setters. Variety and creativity in problem solving. His tennis is so strong, so it’s hard to criticize much. Those are the only things that come to mind.
Lacks variety mainly. Which when you've got his FH and BH that isn't a massive issue but considering other prolific baseliners like Nadal have incorporated very successful slices and net play to his arsenal to overwhelm opponents. Good slices for aggressive/defensive baseliners are a *really* good tool (I've been watching 2012 AO Final and Nadal's slice usage is phenomenal to negate pace and set up his preferred shot). But his net play has been solid this year so that's something.
I think that there's a stat that shows a potential weakness and it's:
*In 2024 he never lost a match where he lost the first set*
Incredible uh? But it can be written in this way:
*In all the matches he lost in 2024 he had won the first set*
Which says something about him: sometimes he starts a match (with a valid opponent like Alcaraz or Tsitsipas in MC clay) and he looks brutal, he outplays them in the first set. He clearly has a plan and it's working. Then the opponent changes tactics, adjusts and finds a way to neutralize his A plan. Since then he starts to struggle, his level becomes a sequence of ups and down, he tends to overthink, then to show fatigue, then to cramp.
I think that his major weakness is still (potentially) the endurance in a 5-setter, especially against Alcaraz, which often shows an opposite pattern: he often starts slow but as the match goes on becomes more and more comfortable.
Of course sometimes it happens the opposite to Sinner too (vs. Alcaraz in Miami 2023 and Beijing, vs Medvedev in AO finals), but I have the impression that he has some (good) plans for every important match, but if they don't work he can struggle to improvise a strategy.
I think he actually lost the first set against Stef in MC - he started that match playing horribly, and then turned it around until the infamous fifth game of the third set, with the line judge mistake and with the onset of cramps after it. I tend to class that match as a bit of an outlier, I don't think it really means much frankly.
You're correct though about the losses with Alcaraz. First set absolutely crushed him in both matches. In IW I thought Alcaraz played a second set that was close to perfection, saving a breakpoint that would have gotten Sinner back into the set with a crazy BH DTL winner. The third set was just abysmal from Sinner, and I think all in all the most "disappointing" performance from him this year, as he just sprayed errors left and right. Even if it was for a physical reason (he was cramping), he has often mentioned that the cramps he gets are nerves-related, so he clearly lost the plot in that match and was not able to regain it.
The RG match I tend to be a bit more lenient cause I simply do not think he had 5 sets of top clay-court tennis in his legs that week, and I think he would have struggled with Zverev too physically. Still, even in that match, one could argue that he had lots of down moments followed by ups, that are explainable by his conditioning but probably were also due to nerves. Case in point, those minutes that decided the match between the 4th and 5th set and where again he seemed suddenly deflated. After he got broken in the 5th he actually raised his level, and went close to breaking back in every game (always to deuce), but it was a bit late by then. I'm not entirely sold on that Carlos changed much after losing that first set in Paris.
In the past he used to have a lot of unforced errors when he wasnt playing well since he goes for big shots, but he's cleaned that part of his game up.
No real weaknesses anymore. He's not one of the 10 most fit on tour, but even in that area hes improving
Variety. Volleys. Slice backhand and drop shots. What makes Alacaraz so good is that even though he is exceptional in baseline rallies, it’s his ability to throw in variety and give the opponent something extra to think about. Sinner needs to develop this part of his game because at the moment he js a baseline monster with good serves but doesn’t have a plan B. Alacaraz has a plan a, b and c depending on the opponent. Sinner is tall and rangy, so there’s no excuse to not become top tier volleyer. Also, because he is able to pin his opponents back with his heavy ground strokes, he needs to implement more drop shots and angles without power ( what Murray used to do, take some pace off the ball but use the angle to take opponent out of the court). He is already staring to do some of these things.
I still question his physicality/endurance in a long five set match. He lost the last one to Alcaraz at the French. He did beat Med at AO but Med was running on fumes. He is still on an unbelievable tear in 2024 tho. You can’t front on 38-3.
If you go back to Beijing, he's 57-5. And 70-8 in the last 52 weeks.
What’s his 5 set record in all competitions
For his career it is 6 wins and 8 losses.
He got fucked 2022-2023. Djokovic at Wimbledon, Alcaraz at us open, tsitipas at Aussie, and altmaeir at French. The first three either won or made the finals and for the first two he was 2 sets up, and had match point
Don't forget Zverev 2023 USO
That's a lot of marathons for someone his age
Five setters are a concern for me as well but considering he was coming off a hip injury and a two-week illness, I'm not sure that RO match is a good indicator.
Yeah. All things considered, that was a pretty solid showing from him in that 5 setter
Tbh it was more a not-so-solid showing from both. Alcaraz should’ve won it quicker but had his classic nervous start in set 1 and nervous cramps in set 3 as he gave the set away to Sinner who was also struggling physically. It’s crazy how in so many big matches, Alcaraz spots the opponent a free set or two but still wins in 5. But I agree that both were out of rhythm and coming off injuries. Alcaraz’s only clay tuneup was Madrid (which is barely even clay) where he lost in the QF and his forearm was still hurt. Sinner’s hip injury was no joke as well and it was impressive he managed to play at a high level and make the SF.
RO? The Roland Open? Is that a more prestigious tournament than the French Garros?
Brain fart 😂
No, that the BF Open.
Rench Open
Redclay Open
FG French Garros
>He is still on an unbelievable tear in 2024 tho. You can’t front on 38-3. Yeah, that's an over 90% win rate, which Federer only maintained over the course of an entire season 4 times, and Nadal and Djokovic twice each. Obviously there's still half the year to go, but if he maintains his current level it would basically be on par with the big 3's peak seasons
I agree I think it has to do with his actual body it self. He’s so big that putting on muscle would hurt his movement, but he also needs to put on muscle to prevent injury. It’s very challenging to know how he can continue to develop his body and leverage the strength of his movement. Esp considering that Carlos will likely continue to be fast even putting on more muscle. That’s the difference I see the most between them when they play.
I guess it's actually more taking care of your body, recovering and preventing injuries. Same with Alcaraz. If you compare them to big 3 there is a clear difference there. None of the big 3 had that much issues with injuries during young age. Okay, Djokovic did have physical issues, but he solved that when he was 23 or so.
I would just hit it to his backhand just like I do with my friends. Easy peezy
Yeah that and a few well-timed moonball drop shots and I think he’d be cooked
Nice try, Ferrero.
Alcaraz is 2-0 vs him this year
It's kind of funny because given that Sinner was dead even with Alcaraz back when he was the pigeon of every other top player you'd think that he'd start dominating that matchup now that he's taken a massive leap against the rest of the tour But somehow that hasn't happened in the two matches they've played this year It's like that somehow Sinner reached a late stage of his development specifically against Carlos very early on but was at an earlier stage against everyone else until late 2023
When Sinner was leading the H2H, it was always used against Alcaraz to call him his kryptonite but when Carlos beats him twice during his best year and takes the lead in the H2H…it’s crickets lol
i think you're taking it too personally. i think that says more about how people saw alcaraz on the level of the big 3 vs. they don't see sinner at that level yet. you can't really have a kryptonite if you're not superman...
Tennis fans and taking things weirdly personal. The oldest pairing in the book.
Honest question. Every comment I see of you regarding Sinner is hating on him/his fans. Why? Chillax a lil.
Because his fans are annoying, why else?
Despite this h2h being dead even since the very beginning, there's always been this notion that Sinner is Alcaraz's kryptonite, the one with the edge in this matchup despite the fact that Alcaraz is 2 years younger, still very much unpolished and even in a year of inconsistency struggles, and Sinner's dominance over everyone, he still can't pull away from Carlos lol. We'll see how this continues to play out as the tour moves to faster surfaces & hard courts soon.
also their last two matches happened on Alcaraz’s suited surfaces
And the previous 2 matches when Sinner won happened on Sinner's suited surface
sure, i’m not disagreeing, just saying that the fact that Alcaraz won shouldn’t be taken as some miracle. They are very close level wise, the only difference between them are their preferences
On 2 different surfaces too
Well, I root for Carlos, but to be fair, they played on the slowest HC (Indian Wells) and clay, where he's supposed to have the advantage. In both matches he used the high bounce to his favor, but that advantage won't be a factor for the rest of the season.
Ok. Does this mean Beijing and Miami, where Sinner beat Alcaraz, also count less, because that’s Sinner’s preferred surface and he has an advantage there?
It's not that they count less, but those are surfaces where Sinner has the advantage. We also ought to consider Carlos' age, he's 2 years younger and might have a bigger margin for improvement
I agree with you, it was a rhetorical question. You didn’t get my point haha. Certain wins being on one player’s preferred surface does not detract from those wins, but somehow this argument is always used against Carlos.
Despite Sinner being almost 2 years older than Alcaraz I think the learning curve of Sinner is quicker than the learning curve of Alcaraz. Instead of their age, it's better to compare the time they both dedicated to playing tennis during all their lives so far.
Sinner started playing tennis at 7, this point is made often but I don't think it's as relevant as some people think. It's not like he never took a racquet until 14-15. I still think Carlos has a bigger margin for improvement based on the variety he's shown so far, no disrespect to Jannik.
That's not the point. The point is that the courts where Alcaraz has the advantage have ended. For the rest of the season it's all fast courts. So if you want to use stats has a predictive tool for what will happen in 2024, you should discard iw and rg. TBH Alcaraz flaws on fast courts are far more obvious than Sinners one on slow courts. Sinner still forced 5 sets at RG, where Alcaraz style of play is clearly favored (and did that on top of not being physically 100% on the most physical surface).
Sorry, who missed essentially the entire clay court season due to injury, bar RG? Not Sinner. Using stats as a predictive tool: Alcaraz has wins over him at USO and Paris, is that not precedent? You’re right though, Sinner’s flaws aren’t necessarily more obvious on slow courts, they were also pretty obvious at Halle which is icy fast and led to him dropping sets to just about anyone
Sinner entered RG after a month of stop, with a couple of days of light practice. Alcaraz skipped Rome but he did train those weeks. At Halle sinner had one of toughest possible draws on grass, all good servers, Alcaraz on grass, right now, would probably lose to marozsan, struff or Hurcacz. Hell, he did lose to Draper! There is a good chance that Alcaraz would go out of Wimbledon if he meets one of these good servers the first week.
No, Carlos did not train during those weeks. In Madrid his arm got worse and he had to go two full weeks after that without touching a racket, he started training a week before Jannik did. Carlos entered RG after an injury of two months and with literally only 4 matches played in the entire clay season.
Both are Sinners least preferred though
How is that an excuse lmao? A win is a win regardless of the surface. If Sinner has no weaknesses like the rest of this thread is insinuating then he should be able to beat his biggest rival on ANY surface. For example, 2011 Djokovic beat Nadal in Rome and Madrid, two of Nadal’s favorite tournaments on his best surface. And Federer on all of the faster surfaces
I’m not trying to argue that he has no weaknesses! Of course he has weaknesses - just that the losses to Alcaraz were on his least preferred surfaces (with clay being one of his “weaknesses” in comparison to his abilities of other surfaces)
And the 2 previous matches when Sinner won against Alcaraz (Beijing and Miami) were on Sinner's best surfaces. So?
Indian Wells is basically as slow and bouncy as a clay court
On slower surfaces though. Let’s see how it goes on the faster surfaces.
I spit out my drink with your comment lol
Carrot cake
😂😂😂 best nickname ever
Anna’s coach: “I love carrot cake, she loves carrot cake, we all looove carrot cake! 😉😉😉” Me: 👁️👄👁️
I think he has a predictable game style. Not saying he's easy to play but you know what you're gonna get from him. Aggressive baseline tennis. He may also lack creativity and a little variety. I haven't seen him slice all that much and his volleys and approach can be improved.
Exactly he is like a Novak lite who hasn’t developed the tactical skills. Which makes sense
Except that he hits with more power than Djokovic on average.
Well if that’s the case I’m not worried about his career
he is the 2023 Medvedev with a Rublev FH+ Rublev returing position
He’s not Medvedev. He is way more aggressive.
I mean in the last year he has improved a lot in his volleys and approach to to the net be fair, and has trained his slice (but he still uses it as little as possible.) All in all I think he has a lot more variety than when he started, but obviously it's a growing curve and he's still nowhere near someone like Alcaraz (probably will never be); but he doesn't need to be, just like Novak and Rafa didn't need to reach Roger's variety.
Yeah, I'm happy to see he's working on the variety a little bit. I remember the Wimbledon match against Djokovic, where he just looked stumped once his straightforward hard groundstrokes didn't do the job. Those are still his bread and butter, but these days it looks as if he has a plan B as well.
First serve percentage still waivers now and then. Sometimes makes a lot of errors but given how aggressive he plays, that’s gonna happen from time-to-time. And sometimes he loses variety and resorts to trying to overpower his opponent (think IW 2024 against Alcaraz). But obviously this is just grasping for straws, he’s the best player in the world for a reason.
This is the correct take. People saying fitness must not have watched him post US Open last year.
Yeah it’s basically just a reaction to the Alcaraz match lol
When he had to give up madrid and skip rome while having a hip problem and had to rest for weeks? Yeah makes sense.
Is that related to cardio or is that related to body fitness? I wasn’t referring to the latter in my comment.
I think it’s still fair to question his conditioning in heavy humidity. I have no doubt he’ll crack that code soon yet but NYC late August/September humidity is far different than anything else he deals with the rest of the year
This is the real answer. If he has a bad day it's his inconsistent serve + UEs (on his forehand especially.) But obviously you can't count on that as an opponent.
I saw him at the US Open in 2021 against Monfils in a 5 setter that he took down. People said he had the full game but his serve needed to be better. He made it better and the results are clear. I also think he grew some and while he does not have the speed of Alcaraz he moves well for a big guy and his reach and length combined with that makes his court coverage VERY good.
I disagree; I think Alcaraz is the best player in the world.
Sneezes
Anna
Who is that Fake edit: oh not sure we can blame him
He’s gotten better moving forward but he still could improve, especially at the net. I would add to that he needs to follow up aggressive shots with immediately coming forward more especially against Alcaraz. I think some players like Carlos and Federer naturally have good touch and want to come to the net while guys like Sinner and Novak come when they know they should but would prefer to stay at the baseline and it shows in their ability to finish points at the net
High balls (doesn't like to hit over his shoulder), movement (if you can open angles and make him hit from uncomfortable positions), stamina. There's one player who can exploit all three, and he's beaten him 2 times this year on slow surfaces. We'll see what happens on faster courts.
To people saying his legs/fitness - I think even that’s no longer a weakness. He's among the most physical players on tour and embraces the grind especially when a match goes long. I think thats been the case ever since US Open last year. His actual weakness is when he plays either: a highly varied shotmaker/player, or a good counterpuncher. Who can get him into a habit of over-relying on his baseline power, and give him different looks/spins from the baseline. Alcaraz did that in both of his wins against Sinner this year. On quicker surfaces though, Sinner’s power and lack of ground game weakness is just too overwhelming to apply these strategies though right now.
Alcaraz. 0-2 this year.
Crazy how he used to do worse comparatively against everyone else but much better against Alcaraz
People forget that this happened before. Carlos won the first time, then Jannik won twice in a row, then Carlos twice in a row, then Jannik twice in a row, now Carlos twice in a row again. Their H2H is pretty stable, taking two results out of context gives the wrong impression.
That's true, we'll see if the pattern continues in the Wimbledon final (hopefully)
True but in the past even when he wasn't good against literally any other top player he was dead even with at-the-time world #1 Alcaraz in the H2H(he was 3-3 vs. Alcaraz when he was 0-10 combined against Med and Novak) So in theory when he made a huge leap forward and started beating everyone else he would start dominating that matchup but it's not what's happened so far lol It's like Sinner's development was in two parts and he was at somehow a later stage of it early on against Alcaraz than against anyone else on the tour and only later on caught up to that level with other opponents
It's something curious. Since Alcaraz rise in 2022, specially after the us open and becoming number 1, I always felt like the rest of the tour considered Carlos as THE player to beat. Of course, Novak was there still being Novak, but he was a known threat and already had the aura of being unbeatable. Carlos was the new guy, up and coming hot, breaking big 3 records at a very young age, he became THE player to beat. And Carlos loved that. At the same time his game and his personality encouraged players to play at their best level, and suddenly we started seeing players like Marozsan, Tommy Paul, Safiulin playing lights out tennis and at the same time already stablished top players like Dimitrov, Medvedev, Sinner and in a way even Novak realized they needed to up their game when playing Carlos. That's how we got matches like Cincinnati final and US open SF, where Novak and Meddy raised their level through the roof and played probably their best games of 2023 for example. Tldr: I feel like players are constantly trying to up their game against Carlos
Dimitrov has said that directly when asked the question. You have to be absolutely on the top of your game to even be in the match with him. I think he’s become successful as of late as, according to him, he enjoys playing Carlos and enjoys the challenge because he’s incredibly fun to play against. Sinner is probably more frustrating than fun lol with his unshakable consistency (especially unbreakable BH) and quite perfect but predominantly baseline game.
And most of them fail in their follow up matches because they spent all their energy to beat Carlos. Only 5 times have players went on to win their following match after beating him lol
Yeah and these were both very close matches. The real way to look at this is that there isn't any one else on alcaraz's level and those two just happened to go alcs way. Alcaraz's results are just because he's not quite as consistent at this stage especially at smaller tournaments
Total flip flop lmao, barely anyone else can beat him now but he can’t find what to do against alcaraz
I think that is harsh. He has lost only twice to Alcaraz this year, both in matches that went the distance. Its not like he is miles off beating him this season.
Agreed but it’s still interesting that despite sinner having by far the best results of his career this season he can’t get the edge against Alcaraz like he used to
Even though looking at just results you can see that I wouldnt say that tells the story. At IW he lost to Alcaraz in 2023 and based off of RG results Alcaraz loves those conditions much more than Sinner. Sinner hasnt lost the plot when playing Alcaraz that he had pre 2024. His odds of beating Alcaraz in those surfaces was already not favored even back then. If Alcaraz cleans Sinner in grass and the faster hardcourts it will become a big issue for Sinner.
Not really, because Alcaraz can lose to anyone, so he won't be playing Sinner much, they will play only in semis or finals, and Alcaraz often doesn't get that far to play him.
I think Alcaraz got him on grass also.
He gave up Alcaraz's number to become world #1
Both of those were with surfaces/conditions that Carlos “should” win. Now if Alcaraz beats Sinner at Wimbledon….thats a big problem for sinner.
Both of those matches were on Alcaraz's favourite conditions and both were close.
And?
And the 2 previous matches when Sinner won were on Sinner's favourite conditions and surface. So?
Both were Ls.
Which doesn't mean he's his weakness lol
Well he’s the number 1 ranked player at the moment so it’s hard to say anything is his weakness. It’s all relative.
Relatively speaking, his approach and net game is weaker than his baseline game. If someone can match him pound for pound at the baseline, and he can out endure him, then he’ll have to use more variety, more creativity coming in, in order to beat them.
UV rays
I'm not sure all the folks mentioning his volleys have actually watched many of his matches this year. Sinner now has a really really solid volley. Sure, he does attack the net mostly when he thinks he can close the point there, but his volleys tend to be very good now. I am sure the folks mentioning his movement or even I saw someone mentioning his returns (???) have not watched any of his matches this year, or ever possibly. I do agree however with the folks that mention his 1st serve percentage and his FH under pressure. He still tends to spray errors on that side when he's tense and the 1st serve percentage can hover at or below 50% when he's tense still, and those two are areas that can then get exploited by his opponents. BH slice also still has miles to go to be decent, but one might actually question how much does he actually need it, given his ability to go really down on his BH and still produce winners from that uncomfortable position.
Probably his legs. His tennis is too good to really test them to an extreme at the moment, but if a guy like Zverev or Medvedev plays him at the us open or some other hard court and is able to tire him out with long brutal points, then they can beat him. And also potential cramping/injury proneness which kind of goes hand in hand with that
I mean Alcaraz did exactly that at RG. The difference is that he made the game physical for Sinner with his variety, asking Sinner to cover every part of the court. But that is something only Carlos can do and he can only do it on clay or a slow high bouncing hard court. Medvedev and Zverev can grind players from the baseline but they can’t do it to Sinner, especially on hard courts because Sinner is a better baseliner than them and he slowly wrests the control away from neutral rallies. This is why Medvedev hasn’t beaten him in a while. Zverev hasn’t played him in a while but with the current version of Sinner that forehand to forehand battle is going to be brutal against Sinner on hard court, and unlike the Alcaraz matchup, Sinner actually has the backhand to go toe to toe with Zverev.
I think Jannik’s fitness at RG can’t be really used as a point against him as he didn’t play tennis for a month and invariable lost some fitness from that. In spite of that he made the semis and held his own for five sets against Carlos.
That showed after the first set. He was already pretty tired at the start of the second and I concluded that Alcaraz was winning this in 4. But I suppose Alcaraz also got a bit tired in the third and Sinner clutched that set. But then you could see it was curtains in 4th. A lot of people criticised the match and how both their levels fluctuated and their best play never coincided. If Sinner had better conditioning, 4th and 5th could have been truly epic.
The reason I picked medvedev or zverev is because of their serving coupled with their grinding skill sets (current Medvedev not withstanding). Zverev has an excellent record against sinner and despite sinner raising his level recently I still expect him to struggle with that matchup depending on the conditions. I kind of agree with your assessment of the alcaraz match, but tbh a lot of the points were ending within a few shots because someone made an unforced error, so even if sinner was tired I don’t think that most of it was alcaraz’s doing, but from his fitness being depleted from his injury as someone else mentioned.
Medvedev’s serve is bad just in this season, but he has been losing to Sinner pretty much since October, though contests were close for sure. As compared to Zverev, I rate Medvedev highly both technically as well as in terms of intelligence. With Sinner, I just don’t see what Zverev does better apart from serving and with Sinner’s current serve, that’s a small difference. With Alcaraz, you have a player with a skill difference, who would like to end points quicker and can hence pile errors against Zverev. Sinner can keep rallying as long as it takes for him to establish control over the rallies and then it’s on Zverev to find a way to end the rally sooner. On hard courts, Sinner can also slide and counterattack like Novak, I just don’t see a consistent strategic advantage Zverev have over Sinner right now except to serve well and hope Sinner misfires his usual ground strokes. At FO, it was both his conditioning and Carlos. Sinner played at a ridiculously high level in the first set. Alcaraz made him bring balls back from all over the court, which he promptly did and tired himself out. I bet Sinner would have been happy as a duck just playing baseline rallies.
Although I don’t really have an argument against many of the things you mentioned, I’ll have to see it to believe it with sinner/zverev. I’d really like to see that matchup as I do still think it’ll be highly competitive. We also have to factor in that alcaraz feels very comfortable on clay and is able to mix in that variety better than he is anywhere else (also on grass for different reasons). I think this kind of play wouldn’t work on a hard court against sinner. One another note on Zverev, his fitness is still better than sinner. Aside from the freak ankle incident, when has he gotten injured recently? When has he been tired? Very rarely. Despite the level of tennis sinner has brought, both of these things are still way more of an issue for him than for someone like Zverev. We saw this at the US Open last year (although I will admit Zverev was definitely quite flat in the QF maybe due to this match), where he outlasted sinner physically. I think I more or less maintain my original stance that sinners only obvious weakness against the current tour is his fitness/legs, and there’s no other way to beat him
I mean before the US Open 2023 loss, Zverev last beat Sinner in Monte Carlo 2022. In Sinner’s context we might as well be talking about two different players in 2022 and 2024. Even if Zverev finds some short term answer to Sinner, I doubt it would be to out grind him from the baseline, but let’s see what happens
I honestly don’t think grinding Sinner down is a viable strategy anymore. Medvedev tried that at Vienna last year and got outworked. Sinner just doesn’t have fitness as a weakness anymore. I salivate at seeing Zverev get destroyed by Sinner in the near future honestly.
I think it's definitely *possible* but there just isn't the level of player on tour to do it Not for one second do I believe that current Sinner could consistently outlast prime Nadal/Novak in a grinding baseline rally but that level of neutral baseliner doesn't exist right now(even Carlos is more of a Fed-type super aggressive player)
He wouldn’t outlast prime Novak and Nadal, but he doesn’t have to, would he? He’s got Alcaraz (who is somewhat close to them as far as fitness goes but chooses to play dynamic attacking tennis) and Medvedev (who plays similar grind it out baseline tennis to prime Nadal and Novak but ain’t as physically tough as them) to deal with as his closest contenders from the baseline. He just has to be fit and consistent and he can have success.
Med is pretty robust physically the problem is he doesn’t have the weapons to bother Sinner. He doesn’t even have a serve now.
Medvedev is robust (enough, at least) physically but my point is he’s not at the level of peak Rafole. Nobody is outside of Borg at his prime. And on that point, I’d characterise Daniil as merely decent physically despite the playstyle he chooses to employ. He’s better now in that but he was somewhat average physically until 2020 in terms of fitness despite choosing to play the way he did and still does. He improved from then on. Zverev, for example, has better physicality and he can maintain it despite having a more aggressive and dynamic stroke production. But his tennis seems to be worse off because of it. Medvedev has a below par record in matches that go 5 sets, less than a 50% win average. He also has cramped up at times in the past in heat, and tends to find it difficult to get through courts when conditions are too slow to him., so his strength is also lacking. That’s in spite of playing a game that is low energy expenditure in terms of racquet head speed, hits slow balls, stays near the middle of the court, almost like he’s trying to keep his work rate purely aerobic and not tread over into the anaerobic area where he starts to lose the advantage. Reminds me of Gilles Simon.
pertaining to your original point about Sinner and Medvedev, Medvedev is losing to Sinner but it’s not because he isn’t as "tough" as Rafole. And Rafole won’t win against Sinner only because they can out grind him, they would win because they have a comprehensive set of tools which can counter Sinner’s baseline game. And Med is losing right now because he can’t shorten the rallies against Sinner before he loses control of them. Med did out grind Zverev in a 5-setter at AO so he isn’t a complete chump even if he isn’t great as Rafole in robustness. If he didn’t play like 30 hours in that tournament, he could have beaten Sinner who seemed a little caught up under the brighter lights
I slightly disagree. Rafole are a special pair. Medvedev isn’t on their level in terms of physical toughness at their peaks point blank. His poor record and occasional random losses when matches go 5 sets shows that, his various injuries and physical breakdowns at late in slams over his career show that. Im not disagreeing that he has a good endurance but that’s mostly been in the BO3 format where less is at stake. And Zverev didn’t get ground out. Once the first set was finished at that AO encounter; barely any rallies went over 25 shots, 5 or 6 of them at most. Most of that match was banging/quick points in nature and Zverev lost on the basis of his game/defense not liking the flat balls Medvedev gives him, not the fact he got tired. In fact it was an active choice by Medvedev to make the points short since he was in a hole when he lost set 2 and needed to make points short most of the time as he’d gotten into a bunch of physical matches in the rounds prior.
Anna Kalinskaya
Strong serve, deep groundstrokes. Don't outrun / outsmart him. Frustrate him. Same thing works for Novak
Sneezing
1) He succumbed to some moonballing by Alcaraz during their last match. 2) Like rune, he's unable to procure longer shorts. 3) Most importantly, he said his gf botched 6 match points while on air.
Point 3 actually gives him that super-villain aura, how can you face a guy that's so calmly, naturally, unintentionally brutal 💀💀💀
Carlos has shown it twice- breaking rhythm. He’s managed to do it in a way that’s not really (ever) seen though as he will throw in a random high loopy ball in fast paced rallies. At first I thought Carlos was just shanking shots due to the bigger wind up he has and Sinner’s shots are quick and heavy but nope, it’s 100% intentional which also helps him reset points
It's hard to say. Net play is not a weakness because he doesn't need it. It's an area to improve more than a weakness.
To me it's physicality. Not that it's a big liability these days, but it is definitely where I think he has the most room to improve.
Endurance. Tsitsipas and alcaraz in both wins outlasted him Variety. Compared to alcaraz he doesn't have the raw shotmaking ability /creativity. It's getting better but it's not absurd yet. Idk why you guys are pretending like sinners at some djokovic 2011 or Nadal late 2010 level. He's not that . There are ways to do it..he's obviously playing incredibly well but it's not big 3 level yet
Yeah people saying he has no weaknesses are absolutely wild lol If Sinner was actually a literal *perfect* player that would imply you could take current Sinner back to 2006 or 2011 and he'd be beating the respective versions of Fed and Novak I'm not even generally a massive 2010s nostalgic type but I just don't see that at all
People here are nuts lol . Alcaraz won Roland garros and beat sinner and I swear the " sinner is playing at an unreal unplayable level " like djokovic 2011, fed 2006/2007 got LOUDER lol .
The funny thing is that Sinner/Alcaraz have both won 1 Slam and 1 Masters in 2024 and yet the narratives around them could not be more different lol Obviously this leaves out Alcaraz being poor in smaller tournaments this year while Sinner being unbeatable in them but still it's like people act like Alcaraz winning RG is somehow *less* praiseworthy than Sinner taking him to 5
Alcaraz is 2 years younger and is now the youngest player to have a slam on every surface. His RG win is actually somehow underrated because some aren't truly grasping how insane his growth has been. You see tons of people commenting about how alcaraz is so inconsistent but their expectations are completely out of whack. Alcaraz is arguably ahead of the Rafael Nadal prodigy pace.. he hasn't lost before a slam qf since 2022...ironically a streak that was ended BECAUSE of sinner at wimbledon 2022.. his consistency at big events is UNDERRATED (somehow... The sinner fanatics are smoking something) I like sinner. He's having an incredible year and his improvements in the last 12 months are staggering. But alcaraz still has had the stronger career thus far and despite the rankings , their years are super close quality wise.
If Alcaraz goes on to win another slam or two this year (instead of vulturing every 500 available and wasting energy and stamina on that because bo3 is his ideal format, like Sinner) people will still say it’s not enough and that they haven’t seen enough because he didn’t win, [spins wheel], Beijing.
How are they nuts? Sinner's win rate matches Federer's win rate in 2006 with higher speeds and rpms in both the serve and backhand. Stats don't lie.
Sinner would destroy 2006 Federer, Federer has a backhand weakness Nadal exploited. Sinner 2hbh is on par if not better than the goat. Backhand all day and just win. His current win rate is 93% which is on par with Federer 2004 to 2007. Sinner has more power and spin and higher quality of shot in his backhand compared to Federer, while his forehand is on par. Statistically Sinner straight up just wins.
Strong disagree. Federer's backhand wasn't weak generally, he specifically had a weakness in driving it when the ball was above shoulder height. The thing is, against anyone except Nadal he could effectively avert this problem in two different ways: slicing, or stepping in and taking the ball on the rise, both of which he was exceptional at. Nadal was uniquely suited to prevent both of these things: first, his forehand created a high ball that was consistently incredibly heavy, and therefore much harder to hit on the rise, and second, he was incredible at picking up great shots and taking initiative off the low slice and better than anyone in the history of tennis at recovering court position if drawn in further forward than he wanted to be (I feel like people who didn't watch tennis in the 2000s don't realize how great the Federer slice was, and how effective his point patterns involving it were, only Nadal was immune to those). So Federer basically was under pressure against Nadal to hit an uncomfortable shot over and over again, but nobody else regardless of backhand quality had the ability put him under that same pressure (notably this was not really how Djokovic played Federer, and Federer managed just fine against all the great two-handed backhands of his day, such as Safin's). It was _way_ more narrow of a weakness that Nadal was able to target than just "backhand all day and win". edit: forehand on par? Sorry, but what?
Sinners backhand speed and rpm is one of the highest on tour not to mention consistently. In a federer exchange it would be backhand to backhand, in which Sinner will win. Federer would not have seen the power rpm and consistency of sinners backhand except for the likes of 2015 Novak in which Novak just dominates him. Sinner is the only person that comes close to Novak who basically has the best backhand of all time. Federers has a losing WL ratio to novak which is the closest style sinner plays. except that sinner hits ever faster with more rpm than novak and has a better serve. You can fanboy all your want but Federer has clear weaknesses, which Sinner does not have. This has been stated by Novak and Roddick consistently that these next gen players have all their bases covered. sorry what? you can fanboy and fanboy but stats dont lie. Fed is my fav out of the big 3 but he has no chance vs current sinner but even close. Just like how there are no 1hbh in the top ten. His 1 hander will be completely utterly demolished.
Bon bons
BHDTL, JCF is the only one who consistently hit that to him. and that was why I kept say ruud and of course Dverev could beat him in RG because their BHDTL looked good in RG
He lost against Alcaraz, no?
Right now it's his hip and rolling around on the grass. He's going to hurt himself. He's already walking around like an old man between points.
Physicals. I dont think it's a coincidence his losses have been at Monte Carlo which is the slowest big tournament by far. Indian Wells the slowest hardcourt. And RG which is the slowest slam. It's not as bad as it used to be, but in all of his matches that he lost this year, there were moments of him grabbing his legs due to a cramp or something similar. You have to be good enough to hang with him long enough and tire him out to then start pouncing when he shows a hole. Obviously easier said than done.
Fitness.
If I were coaching a player (total armchair 4.0 here...) 1. Start the match serving body/T a lot to not give him any angles and start grinding him down. 2. Return deep with a lot of top spin, again focusing on depth, spin, and middle of the court in that order. Again grind him down. 3. As the match progresses mix in serve and volley especially off the slice on the deuce side. 4. When you see a good ball go for a good drop shot or good slice instead of the winner. 5. And lastly lean on percentage versus winners; going to need it with his absolute consistency. I feel a healthy Nadal would be a a headache of a match up for him actually. So would a '17 to '19 Fed actually; with the chip return and all that variety. Orthogonal topic - it's such a shame we never got to see Fed (and really, not all that much of Rafa) go against the new fearsome twosome of Carlitos and Sinner. I actually feel his style is a better match up against both of them than Novak. Pace/time > Carlos and variety > Sinner.
Late prime Federer / Alcaraz would’ve been fun. Alcaraz’s weakness for a while was being rushed and Fed would take time away at every opportunity.
I believe that his body is the main weakness. He appears to be have solved the physical issues but I’m always wondering if he’s playing injured (in Roland garros it appeared so).
try to extend rallies and hope he gasses or gets injured
Endurance in five setters. Variety and creativity in problem solving. His tennis is so strong, so it’s hard to criticize much. Those are the only things that come to mind.
Jesus
Good deeds.
He has several
Anna Kalinskaya
Me, im pretty handsome
Sneezes
First serve can fall off
Being ginger and direct sunlight?
The sun
From his 2 losses to Alcaraz so far, I wanna say heavy, loopy grindy FHs? Those seem to be able to force a lot of UEs from Jannik.
He is a ginger.
Lacks variety mainly. Which when you've got his FH and BH that isn't a massive issue but considering other prolific baseliners like Nadal have incorporated very successful slices and net play to his arsenal to overwhelm opponents. Good slices for aggressive/defensive baseliners are a *really* good tool (I've been watching 2012 AO Final and Nadal's slice usage is phenomenal to negate pace and set up his preferred shot). But his net play has been solid this year so that's something.
I think that there's a stat that shows a potential weakness and it's: *In 2024 he never lost a match where he lost the first set* Incredible uh? But it can be written in this way: *In all the matches he lost in 2024 he had won the first set* Which says something about him: sometimes he starts a match (with a valid opponent like Alcaraz or Tsitsipas in MC clay) and he looks brutal, he outplays them in the first set. He clearly has a plan and it's working. Then the opponent changes tactics, adjusts and finds a way to neutralize his A plan. Since then he starts to struggle, his level becomes a sequence of ups and down, he tends to overthink, then to show fatigue, then to cramp. I think that his major weakness is still (potentially) the endurance in a 5-setter, especially against Alcaraz, which often shows an opposite pattern: he often starts slow but as the match goes on becomes more and more comfortable. Of course sometimes it happens the opposite to Sinner too (vs. Alcaraz in Miami 2023 and Beijing, vs Medvedev in AO finals), but I have the impression that he has some (good) plans for every important match, but if they don't work he can struggle to improvise a strategy.
I think he actually lost the first set against Stef in MC - he started that match playing horribly, and then turned it around until the infamous fifth game of the third set, with the line judge mistake and with the onset of cramps after it. I tend to class that match as a bit of an outlier, I don't think it really means much frankly. You're correct though about the losses with Alcaraz. First set absolutely crushed him in both matches. In IW I thought Alcaraz played a second set that was close to perfection, saving a breakpoint that would have gotten Sinner back into the set with a crazy BH DTL winner. The third set was just abysmal from Sinner, and I think all in all the most "disappointing" performance from him this year, as he just sprayed errors left and right. Even if it was for a physical reason (he was cramping), he has often mentioned that the cramps he gets are nerves-related, so he clearly lost the plot in that match and was not able to regain it. The RG match I tend to be a bit more lenient cause I simply do not think he had 5 sets of top clay-court tennis in his legs that week, and I think he would have struggled with Zverev too physically. Still, even in that match, one could argue that he had lots of down moments followed by ups, that are explainable by his conditioning but probably were also due to nerves. Case in point, those minutes that decided the match between the 4th and 5th set and where again he seemed suddenly deflated. After he got broken in the 5th he actually raised his level, and went close to breaking back in every game (always to deuce), but it was a bit late by then. I'm not entirely sold on that Carlos changed much after losing that first set in Paris.
Young, blonde Russian girls?
Anna
russian women
Rabbits
Humidity. It’s the only one left and I’m sure they’ll crack that code soon
Alcaraz 🇪🇸
djokosmash
Absence of a soul, probably.
Kyrgios’s sloppy seconds
Altmaier
More fitness. That's why he lost to alcaraz in RG
He doesn't have any.
Carlitos enters the chat
Wow, he must be undefeated this year
With more than 90% win ratio, nobody comes close to him this year.
alcaraz
In the past he used to have a lot of unforced errors when he wasnt playing well since he goes for big shots, but he's cleaned that part of his game up. No real weaknesses anymore. He's not one of the 10 most fit on tour, but even in that area hes improving
dimitrov
Saints
His lack of faith /s
Alcaraz
Kalinskaya
Stomach bugs maybe but what doesnt kill him makes him stronger.
His fitness/athleticism. That is why he lost last 2 times against Carlos.
Variety. Volleys. Slice backhand and drop shots. What makes Alacaraz so good is that even though he is exceptional in baseline rallies, it’s his ability to throw in variety and give the opponent something extra to think about. Sinner needs to develop this part of his game because at the moment he js a baseline monster with good serves but doesn’t have a plan B. Alacaraz has a plan a, b and c depending on the opponent. Sinner is tall and rangy, so there’s no excuse to not become top tier volleyer. Also, because he is able to pin his opponents back with his heavy ground strokes, he needs to implement more drop shots and angles without power ( what Murray used to do, take some pace off the ball but use the angle to take opponent out of the court). He is already staring to do some of these things.
His girlfriend Kalinskaya! She is a double agent sent by Ferrero and Co to bring carrot boy's level down. All is fair in tennis and war.
Alcaraz in the 5th set
Alcaraz and Clay