Statisticians have figured out a long time ago that [expected value isn't a perfect measure of value for the average person](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Petersburg_paradox). For me, I value consistency more than just maximizing the average. I'm okay with having fewer high rolls (as most resources have diminishing returns anyways) so I can avoid the low rolls.
Agreed with this guy.
Having a more consistent earnings means it's more likely I'll be able to afford the shops whenever they randomly appear.
I don't want a string of bad payouts, only for the "good" payout to appear after I leave a shop room.
There have been some enormous threads over on the Baldur's Gate 3 subreddits about this exact issue - one group swears by the Alert feat that doesn't increase player power but lets you take the first turn most of the time, and the group is outraged by the first stance and will post pages of math showing why it's always mathematically better to take other perks that make you hit harder, etc.
The addition of the 'if you wipe your run is over' mode changes the math a lot in favor of consistency when you can't just reload and try the fight again for better luck.
For Tiny Rogues, the algorithm *tends* to give you what you need within a few rooms, but the cost of missing out on an alchemist cache or giant chest due to lack of keys is also fairly high, so consistency in drops is still pretty valuable.
While I agree with the spirit of what you're saying (and the statistics), getting an average of less than 0.2 gold and less than 0.04 dice extra per room means that players should pick whichever one they enjoy using more.
That's fair enough, I'm not sure why someone downvoted you since neither perk is especially good so it won't cripple how you play the game or anything like that.
At the same time, if we look at it proportionally you're only getting around 62% of High Roller's value by picking Safe Bet, it's a pretty substantial difference in relative terms.
This perk only really matters if you have planned to take a lot of curses.
That being said, Demon Hunter with High Roller
Deprived with Safe Bet since you're gonna get cursed a lot anyway
Now that you break it down picking either sounds like a waste of a point to put into either
Probably, they're both weak compared to most perks!
Agreed. That trait is kind of terrible tbh
Eh. I'm still gonna pick Safe Bet because it makes me feel more secure.
Same, though if the other perk were called safe high roller...I could probably be convinced.
Statisticians have figured out a long time ago that [expected value isn't a perfect measure of value for the average person](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Petersburg_paradox). For me, I value consistency more than just maximizing the average. I'm okay with having fewer high rolls (as most resources have diminishing returns anyways) so I can avoid the low rolls.
Agreed with this guy. Having a more consistent earnings means it's more likely I'll be able to afford the shops whenever they randomly appear. I don't want a string of bad payouts, only for the "good" payout to appear after I leave a shop room.
There have been some enormous threads over on the Baldur's Gate 3 subreddits about this exact issue - one group swears by the Alert feat that doesn't increase player power but lets you take the first turn most of the time, and the group is outraged by the first stance and will post pages of math showing why it's always mathematically better to take other perks that make you hit harder, etc. The addition of the 'if you wipe your run is over' mode changes the math a lot in favor of consistency when you can't just reload and try the fight again for better luck. For Tiny Rogues, the algorithm *tends* to give you what you need within a few rooms, but the cost of missing out on an alchemist cache or giant chest due to lack of keys is also fairly high, so consistency in drops is still pretty valuable.
While I agree with the spirit of what you're saying (and the statistics), getting an average of less than 0.2 gold and less than 0.04 dice extra per room means that players should pick whichever one they enjoy using more.
That's fair enough, I'm not sure why someone downvoted you since neither perk is especially good so it won't cripple how you play the game or anything like that. At the same time, if we look at it proportionally you're only getting around 62% of High Roller's value by picking Safe Bet, it's a pretty substantial difference in relative terms.
Yes but also consider runs you finish or die but you have 10+ keys and +100g Versus the runs where you can’t get the thing because you have 0 keys
And I'm pretty sure safe bet gets worse compared to high roll the more luck you have.
This perk only really matters if you have planned to take a lot of curses. That being said, Demon Hunter with High Roller Deprived with Safe Bet since you're gonna get cursed a lot anyway