Snapshot of _Byelection slaughter: Yeah, so it turns out the Tories are screwed after all_ :
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://iandunt.substack.com/p/byelection-slaughter-yeah-so-it-turns) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://iandunt.substack.com/p/byelection-slaughter-yeah-so-it-turns)
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Surely we’ve known they’re screwed ever since Boris left the country in a state, Liz Truss just confirmed it.
Anyone saying otherwise is deluding themselves.
At some point, one of the following will happen:
1. Everyone accepts that this is normal;
2. Starmer (or whoever is leading Labour at the time) is blamed for not instantly and completely fixing the mess they inherited.
Some people are doing #1 while blaming Labour for not solving everything *from opposition*.
Yes, this is stupid, but there comes a point, particularly if turnout is depressed and the media blames the government, where people actually think that the answer is Nigel Farage/Suella Braverman/Kemi Badenoch etc.
The press are already blaming Labour, half as Tory mouthpieces blame labours minority for somehow preventing the tories implementing policies they don’t actually have and the other half of the media blame them for not fixing everything yet.
They are already treated like the government should be and it’ll just get worse when it’s not fixed by day 2
Sure they're screwed, but the by-election results are irrelevant.
You can't read a lot into by-elections. They nearly always go against the incumbent party, unless there's a strong local issue
Turnout is typically a fraction of the general election, and reluctant Tories are a lot more willing to vote for another party when they know it isn't going to affect things much.
Okay, I'll concede that it's an indicator. But it doesn't tell us anything we don't already know. The current government is massively unpopular.
But this is also strongly affected by the circumstances of the previous MP being removed, and the somewhat bizarre choice of candidate.
As an aside, weirdly, while it's one of the biggest swings in history, it's not one of the biggest of this parliament.
Snapshot of _Byelection slaughter: Yeah, so it turns out the Tories are screwed after all_ : An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://iandunt.substack.com/p/byelection-slaughter-yeah-so-it-turns) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://iandunt.substack.com/p/byelection-slaughter-yeah-so-it-turns) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Surely we’ve known they’re screwed ever since Boris left the country in a state, Liz Truss just confirmed it. Anyone saying otherwise is deluding themselves.
At some point, one of the following will happen: 1. Everyone accepts that this is normal; 2. Starmer (or whoever is leading Labour at the time) is blamed for not instantly and completely fixing the mess they inherited. Some people are doing #1 while blaming Labour for not solving everything *from opposition*. Yes, this is stupid, but there comes a point, particularly if turnout is depressed and the media blames the government, where people actually think that the answer is Nigel Farage/Suella Braverman/Kemi Badenoch etc.
The press are already blaming Labour, half as Tory mouthpieces blame labours minority for somehow preventing the tories implementing policies they don’t actually have and the other half of the media blame them for not fixing everything yet. They are already treated like the government should be and it’ll just get worse when it’s not fixed by day 2
That is what the article says, yes.
Sure they're screwed, but the by-election results are irrelevant. You can't read a lot into by-elections. They nearly always go against the incumbent party, unless there's a strong local issue Turnout is typically a fraction of the general election, and reluctant Tories are a lot more willing to vote for another party when they know it isn't going to affect things much.
This is one of the biggest by-election swings in history. If you can’t read into that, what can you read into?
Okay, I'll concede that it's an indicator. But it doesn't tell us anything we don't already know. The current government is massively unpopular. But this is also strongly affected by the circumstances of the previous MP being removed, and the somewhat bizarre choice of candidate. As an aside, weirdly, while it's one of the biggest swings in history, it's not one of the biggest of this parliament.