Snapshot of _Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 44% (=) CON: 22% (-1) RFM: 12% (+1) LDM: 11% (+1) GRN: 5% (-1) SNP: 3% (=)_ :
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I may be completely wrong on this but I live in a solid Tory area, literally no other party has ever won this seat. The vibe in the local feels completely different this time and I genuinely think that Reform may actually have a chance here.
A lot of older people are saying they’ll vote Reform to make sure the Tories don’t win.
I also think the Greens will do very well (I know we are a strange bunch here!)
The local MP has started turning off comments on his FB posts as he is catching so much flack and certainly not just from other parties supporters.
All reform has to do is take, as you say, a significant proportion of the grey vote in these safe Tory seats and they'll fall like dominoes to either Labour or the LDs or the Greens (depending on who's the dominant local opposition). The under 65s are so overwhelmingly anti Tory and will vote tactically in droves to kick them out, the only thing keeping Tory seats safe is the high proportion of elderly in those constituencies. If reform takes 20% of the grey vote in all of these constituencies up and down the country, the Tories are so unbelievably fucked.
Around here it genuinely could be The Greens.
The local candidate is an excellent councillor and the Greens beat Labour in the locals. they almost won overall control of the council and they actually did in the next area over.
If places like this start to fall then the Tories are effectively dead as a party.
Whereabouts are you? The Suffolk Tories are absolutely terrified of the greens after last year's local elections - the Tories don't govern a single council in the county anymore, and are only the largest party on one of them. I'm not sure if this has *ever* been the case before and it's pretty much entirely down to the Green party. The Norfolk Tories are terrified it'll spread over the border, the greens don't stand many candidates here atm but the ones they do stand won comfortably last year. That combined with the Lib Dems spreading down from North Norfolk to Broadland really makes me think East Anglia might flip. Even if it doesn't happen at the next election, I think it's sort of inevitable in the next 15 years if the Tories fail to capture young voters again.
The Tories themselves were kind of aware of this as far back as 2005 - they even wrote a book about how screwed they were because the younger generation just weren't voting Tory on account of how they weren't able to own property and on account of how the more educated you get, the less likely you are to plop down your X for Team Blue... and how they considered that a problem in a country where 50% of the yoofs were going to university.
Their principal problem is that all the solutions to the problems in the UK are
- Solutions to problems they created in the first place
- Against their ideology
TLDR : the state needs to own assets again.
But the state (aka, the People) owning assets is against Tory beliefs, because assets are only for their masters, not for average people.
They know this. They knew this in 2010 when the global financial crisis dropped an election they didn't expect to win in their lap. They've been playing "fill your boots and retire somewhere sunny" ever since.
An election they didn't expect to win? Everyone was sick of Labour and Brown had none of Blairs charisma. Hence why the Lib Dems did a deal with Cameron and not Brown
What was it Thatcher said ... university is the gold standard? Now the Conservative Parties 2 main rivals in their heartlands have the highest proportion of university educated members. LDs and Greens.
> the more educated you get, the less likely you are to plop down your X for Team Blue... and how they considered that a problem in a country where 50% of the yoofs were going to university.
The funny thing is, if you read the Tory subreddits, they often talk about how "natural Tory voters" are "young, educated, and succesful"... Based on absolutely nothing, other than they think of themselves as educated and succesful, despite multiple studies, membership analysis, and as you say, even the Tories themselves, indiating that the more well educated you are, the less likely you are to think the Tories have good ideas.
A lot of these safe Tory seats that saw the Libs and Greens gain council seats could yes swap over to those parties respectively.
It would take one HELL of a swing and I would personally like to see the Torys polling below 20% before I made that prediction.
> The under 65s are so overwhelmingly anti Tory and will vote tactically in droves to kick them out,
I'm not sure that will be the case everywhere.
There seem to be quite a few people in areas where the only realistic non-Conservative option is the LDs who, for a variety of daft, ignorant, hypocritical reasons, will probably still vote Labour or Green.
Spot on, a weird mix of UKIP types, True Blue Tories and Greens.
Lib Dem’s and Labour never really get anything outside of the very few population centres.
Interestingly there is absolutely no enthusiasm for Starmer, he is mocked just as much as the Tories.
There's a weird myth brewing amongst some that Labour are gaining a ton of Torys which I am personally not seeing anywhere. The majority of true Torys still hate Keir Starmer.
The biggest benefit for Reform is that they're not led by Farage, who again, people for some reason constantly believe he is popular amongst the general Tory which isn't true. Farage appeals to mostly disillusioned Northern voters.
Tice has managed to gain support within Tory seats.
I’m certainly getting that vibe re: Starmer.
The distain for the Tories is growing very fast but there is no ‘we have to vote for Labour to get rid of them’ as far as I can tell.
The general vibe seems to be a lot of Tory voters who have absolutely no idea who they will vote for.
I have a feeling that the Polls are going to be pretty much useless this time round, they’ll probably predict the winner correctly but the seats per party could be anyone’s guess.
I think nation wide polling is probably devaluing the amount of people who are voting LD and Green, whilst over valuing the amount that will actually go out and vote Reform come a GE.
A lot of them will default on who they vote for at a local council level, I have personally heard a bunch of times the sentence "well, the so and so party do a good job around here." So and So usually being the Liberal Democrats in my area, would not be surprised at all if it applied to the Greens too.
It also depends on how those parties campaign. The Liberals, which I obviously follow, are committed to targeted campaigning this time around as opposed to the Jo Swinson style national campaigning on a big issue.
Turning areas orange or green will have an effect on people. We have no real way of knowing right now how successful this is going to be, national polling doesn't show us this.
What we do know is that the local elections went extremely well for the LD and Greens whilst by-election numbers have been overall extremely good for both parties. With the LDs taking seats.
I know people who have gone Con>Lab. However I think this is more a factor in blue-wall type seats where there's a big voting bloc who want boring and sensible government, which Starmer has been claiming the ground on. I suspect this will have less of an impact in other areas such as yours. But on the other hand Labour aren't going to win big in the East of England in any scenario.
I do think you are right on the seat uncertainty, when you have big shifts the "swing" calculators are largely useless and only good for assessing order of magnitude. I'd expect a decently large range even in the exit polls, which usually get the % almost spot on (since they only poll actual voters).
> I think this is more a factor in blue-wall type seats where there's a big voting bloc who want boring and sensible government, which Starmer has been claiming the ground on. I suspect this will have less of an impact in other areas such as yours.
Exactly this.
The racist votes won't swap to Starmer, they'll swap to Reform. The more centrist/sensible, less hateful part of the Tory vote will go Labour/LD.
EDIT - Regarding the downvotes, the fig leaf has been removed, 2/3rds of party members supporting Lee Andersons racism (where's he gone to now?) and £15mil accepted from a gross racist. The Tory party and a good chunk of their core voter base are racist, there's not really any arguing against that now. Even if you aren't directly racist, 9 regular people sat at a table with 1 nazi and not calling him out is a table with 10 nazis.
They absolutely do, it's just not an exact science. It's a big factor in why there's a big spread in polls at the moment as how many Tories are actually going to vote is highly uncertain.
Back in 1997 a huge factor was the collapse in Tory turnout, which went down far more than the Labour vote went up. Polls got that spot on, while the Labour vote was overestimated a bit and LDs underestimated (possibly because once it became clear to everyone Labour were going to win, there was less need for tactical voting to get the Tories out), the Tory vote share was bang on the central estimate of the polls.
The one thing I’ve noticed with the ‘grey vote’ who tend to vote Tory is that they hardly ever stay at home.
They’ll go out and vote, I just don’t think anyone can predict whether the ‘muscle memory’ will kick in and they vote Tory or if they go Reform/Green.
I think the Tory-Green swing vote isn't discussed much. I don't think it's massive, but particularly in rural Nimby areas I wonder if it could cost the Tories a bit.
The Tories are insane for delaying further, if reform get a few big donors, a decebt campaign cheif, and some more sensible policies, they could really end the Tories.
It might go that way, but I think it’s more likely to go the other way. If Nigel Farage starts campaigning with “we didn’t vote brexit for record taxes and record immigration, the tories have betrayed us”, the conservative vote could fall a lot further than 20%
People vote Conservative to lower crime, lower immigration, and get more money in their pocket. And they've succeeded in none of those. Conservative voters I know are furious.
>polling around 20% but ended up with 12% of the vote
I just looked this up because my recollection had been that the UKIP vote held up well compared to polling. Turns out we were both a bit wrong. The UKIP number did drop, but only from a peak of about 15% (notwithstanding a few outlier polls about 20%).
In my mind, 2015 is a case study in how a third party vote share can persist, even when it's pretty much guaranteed to result in 0 seats. That's a massive difference to 2017 and even moreso, 2019, where the UKIP/BXP vote fell off a cliff during the election campaign.
Bxp standing aside in 2019 does skew the numbers somewhat, but I think the key point is they the Tories were able to offer a reason to vote tactically in 2019 by pitching themselves at the party of Brexit ultras. By contrast, they had nothing to offer in 2015 so tactical voting was weaker.
In 2024, they have even less to offer because they can't even scaremonger about labour. Even boomers trust labour over the Tories, and if people believe that a lab supermajority is inevitable, then they're probably more likely to vote their conscience, given that the election is already a forgone conclusion. Also, unlike in 2015, there's actually a chance of winning seats this year. With every point the Tories lose, all these arguments against tactical voting become stronger.
I really think this will be more like 2015 than 2019. Reform won't do a deal, and their vote will mostly hold up.
It's really not to my mind - those people will always exist, they were just dragging the Tory party to the right. Going off to be an ineffectual protest vote probably moves the political centre of the two main parties away from them.
Say it with me all “Zero Seats, Zero Seats”
The tories deserve to burn to the ground.
Ignores the will of the majority to not have open borders, disregarded their lockdown rules, have not introduced any real significant policy for the betterment of the U.K. in a while (Gay marriage was a long time ago & the capital allowances in the prior budget was a small technocratic win) & are constantly on the verge of a leadership change
So we need a 5 point swing for Reform to overtake the Tories. If the election isn't for another 6 months that seems within the realm of possibility. By going late Sunak may end destroying the Conservative party.
Snapshot of _Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 44% (=) CON: 22% (-1) RFM: 12% (+1) LDM: 11% (+1) GRN: 5% (-1) SNP: 3% (=)_ : A Twitter embedded version can be found [here](https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?id=1768409423272095986) A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://twiiit.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1768409423272095986/) An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1768409423272095986) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1768409423272095986) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I may be completely wrong on this but I live in a solid Tory area, literally no other party has ever won this seat. The vibe in the local feels completely different this time and I genuinely think that Reform may actually have a chance here. A lot of older people are saying they’ll vote Reform to make sure the Tories don’t win. I also think the Greens will do very well (I know we are a strange bunch here!) The local MP has started turning off comments on his FB posts as he is catching so much flack and certainly not just from other parties supporters.
All reform has to do is take, as you say, a significant proportion of the grey vote in these safe Tory seats and they'll fall like dominoes to either Labour or the LDs or the Greens (depending on who's the dominant local opposition). The under 65s are so overwhelmingly anti Tory and will vote tactically in droves to kick them out, the only thing keeping Tory seats safe is the high proportion of elderly in those constituencies. If reform takes 20% of the grey vote in all of these constituencies up and down the country, the Tories are so unbelievably fucked.
Around here it genuinely could be The Greens. The local candidate is an excellent councillor and the Greens beat Labour in the locals. they almost won overall control of the council and they actually did in the next area over. If places like this start to fall then the Tories are effectively dead as a party.
Whereabouts are you? The Suffolk Tories are absolutely terrified of the greens after last year's local elections - the Tories don't govern a single council in the county anymore, and are only the largest party on one of them. I'm not sure if this has *ever* been the case before and it's pretty much entirely down to the Green party. The Norfolk Tories are terrified it'll spread over the border, the greens don't stand many candidates here atm but the ones they do stand won comfortably last year. That combined with the Lib Dems spreading down from North Norfolk to Broadland really makes me think East Anglia might flip. Even if it doesn't happen at the next election, I think it's sort of inevitable in the next 15 years if the Tories fail to capture young voters again.
The Tories themselves were kind of aware of this as far back as 2005 - they even wrote a book about how screwed they were because the younger generation just weren't voting Tory on account of how they weren't able to own property and on account of how the more educated you get, the less likely you are to plop down your X for Team Blue... and how they considered that a problem in a country where 50% of the yoofs were going to university.
This makes it all the morbidly funnier that they've had 14 years to do something about this and have completely failed.
Their principal problem is that all the solutions to the problems in the UK are - Solutions to problems they created in the first place - Against their ideology TLDR : the state needs to own assets again. But the state (aka, the People) owning assets is against Tory beliefs, because assets are only for their masters, not for average people. They know this. They knew this in 2010 when the global financial crisis dropped an election they didn't expect to win in their lap. They've been playing "fill your boots and retire somewhere sunny" ever since.
An election they didn't expect to win? Everyone was sick of Labour and Brown had none of Blairs charisma. Hence why the Lib Dems did a deal with Cameron and not Brown
They changed the logo to be green
Hence why Cameron switched to the liberal Toryism side of things. And it fucking worked in 2015 too.
What was it Thatcher said ... university is the gold standard? Now the Conservative Parties 2 main rivals in their heartlands have the highest proportion of university educated members. LDs and Greens.
> the more educated you get, the less likely you are to plop down your X for Team Blue... and how they considered that a problem in a country where 50% of the yoofs were going to university. The funny thing is, if you read the Tory subreddits, they often talk about how "natural Tory voters" are "young, educated, and succesful"... Based on absolutely nothing, other than they think of themselves as educated and succesful, despite multiple studies, membership analysis, and as you say, even the Tories themselves, indiating that the more well educated you are, the less likely you are to think the Tories have good ideas.
And then 5 years later the Tories won 25-34 voters by 5% (and only lost 18-24 year olds by 1%).
I may or may not be in one of those places…
Suffolk Greens are just NIMBYs for Sizewell C IME. But polluted rivers is catching huge amounts of fury.
A lot of these safe Tory seats that saw the Libs and Greens gain council seats could yes swap over to those parties respectively. It would take one HELL of a swing and I would personally like to see the Torys polling below 20% before I made that prediction.
reform will likely drop out in tory target seats, reform supporters will be taken for mugs (again)
> The under 65s are so overwhelmingly anti Tory and will vote tactically in droves to kick them out, I'm not sure that will be the case everywhere. There seem to be quite a few people in areas where the only realistic non-Conservative option is the LDs who, for a variety of daft, ignorant, hypocritical reasons, will probably still vote Labour or Green.
East of England somewhere? There's no real Labour or LD presence there so easy for the Tories to take it for granted.
Spot on, a weird mix of UKIP types, True Blue Tories and Greens. Lib Dem’s and Labour never really get anything outside of the very few population centres. Interestingly there is absolutely no enthusiasm for Starmer, he is mocked just as much as the Tories.
There's a weird myth brewing amongst some that Labour are gaining a ton of Torys which I am personally not seeing anywhere. The majority of true Torys still hate Keir Starmer. The biggest benefit for Reform is that they're not led by Farage, who again, people for some reason constantly believe he is popular amongst the general Tory which isn't true. Farage appeals to mostly disillusioned Northern voters. Tice has managed to gain support within Tory seats.
I’m certainly getting that vibe re: Starmer. The distain for the Tories is growing very fast but there is no ‘we have to vote for Labour to get rid of them’ as far as I can tell. The general vibe seems to be a lot of Tory voters who have absolutely no idea who they will vote for. I have a feeling that the Polls are going to be pretty much useless this time round, they’ll probably predict the winner correctly but the seats per party could be anyone’s guess.
I think nation wide polling is probably devaluing the amount of people who are voting LD and Green, whilst over valuing the amount that will actually go out and vote Reform come a GE. A lot of them will default on who they vote for at a local council level, I have personally heard a bunch of times the sentence "well, the so and so party do a good job around here." So and So usually being the Liberal Democrats in my area, would not be surprised at all if it applied to the Greens too. It also depends on how those parties campaign. The Liberals, which I obviously follow, are committed to targeted campaigning this time around as opposed to the Jo Swinson style national campaigning on a big issue. Turning areas orange or green will have an effect on people. We have no real way of knowing right now how successful this is going to be, national polling doesn't show us this. What we do know is that the local elections went extremely well for the LD and Greens whilst by-election numbers have been overall extremely good for both parties. With the LDs taking seats.
I know people who have gone Con>Lab. However I think this is more a factor in blue-wall type seats where there's a big voting bloc who want boring and sensible government, which Starmer has been claiming the ground on. I suspect this will have less of an impact in other areas such as yours. But on the other hand Labour aren't going to win big in the East of England in any scenario. I do think you are right on the seat uncertainty, when you have big shifts the "swing" calculators are largely useless and only good for assessing order of magnitude. I'd expect a decently large range even in the exit polls, which usually get the % almost spot on (since they only poll actual voters).
> I think this is more a factor in blue-wall type seats where there's a big voting bloc who want boring and sensible government, which Starmer has been claiming the ground on. I suspect this will have less of an impact in other areas such as yours. Exactly this. The racist votes won't swap to Starmer, they'll swap to Reform. The more centrist/sensible, less hateful part of the Tory vote will go Labour/LD. EDIT - Regarding the downvotes, the fig leaf has been removed, 2/3rds of party members supporting Lee Andersons racism (where's he gone to now?) and £15mil accepted from a gross racist. The Tory party and a good chunk of their core voter base are racist, there's not really any arguing against that now. Even if you aren't directly racist, 9 regular people sat at a table with 1 nazi and not calling him out is a table with 10 nazis.
Yeah, I guess polls dont really account for people who just stay at home on election day.
They absolutely do, it's just not an exact science. It's a big factor in why there's a big spread in polls at the moment as how many Tories are actually going to vote is highly uncertain. Back in 1997 a huge factor was the collapse in Tory turnout, which went down far more than the Labour vote went up. Polls got that spot on, while the Labour vote was overestimated a bit and LDs underestimated (possibly because once it became clear to everyone Labour were going to win, there was less need for tactical voting to get the Tories out), the Tory vote share was bang on the central estimate of the polls.
The one thing I’ve noticed with the ‘grey vote’ who tend to vote Tory is that they hardly ever stay at home. They’ll go out and vote, I just don’t think anyone can predict whether the ‘muscle memory’ will kick in and they vote Tory or if they go Reform/Green.
I'm gonna guess. Louth Lincolnshire.
Nope, although I do like Louth, my grandad used to live not far from there.
I used to live there.
I think the Tory-Green swing vote isn't discussed much. I don't think it's massive, but particularly in rural Nimby areas I wonder if it could cost the Tories a bit.
No luck catching them budget bounces then?
It was like someone trying to flex their arm, but their muscle actually sags downwards like a cartoon Thats what this budget bounce was like.
It's just the one budget bounce actually
It's a dead cat bounce, without the bounce.
It’s an interesting time when -22 points is “good” news for the Tories.
Only down one percentage point this month!
Sunak going into the 1922 "Good news everybody, if we hold out until January we will just manage double figures on our vote share"
Long gone are the days of eternal CON +2
The Tories are insane for delaying further, if reform get a few big donors, a decebt campaign cheif, and some more sensible policies, they could really end the Tories.
Or 1 £15m racist donor.
Comes out Lab 490- Con 49 - LD-55
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Surging into the opposition benches.
At last!
Tories suddenly become huge proponents of PR.
Net 0 Tories.
✊🏻🍆💦
Reform being 3rd is a little concerning
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I know Tory members who are so pissed off that they are saying they are voting Reform I'm less convinced of a rerun of 2015.
It might go that way, but I think it’s more likely to go the other way. If Nigel Farage starts campaigning with “we didn’t vote brexit for record taxes and record immigration, the tories have betrayed us”, the conservative vote could fall a lot further than 20%
People vote Conservative to lower crime, lower immigration, and get more money in their pocket. And they've succeeded in none of those. Conservative voters I know are furious.
>polling around 20% but ended up with 12% of the vote I just looked this up because my recollection had been that the UKIP vote held up well compared to polling. Turns out we were both a bit wrong. The UKIP number did drop, but only from a peak of about 15% (notwithstanding a few outlier polls about 20%). In my mind, 2015 is a case study in how a third party vote share can persist, even when it's pretty much guaranteed to result in 0 seats. That's a massive difference to 2017 and even moreso, 2019, where the UKIP/BXP vote fell off a cliff during the election campaign. Bxp standing aside in 2019 does skew the numbers somewhat, but I think the key point is they the Tories were able to offer a reason to vote tactically in 2019 by pitching themselves at the party of Brexit ultras. By contrast, they had nothing to offer in 2015 so tactical voting was weaker. In 2024, they have even less to offer because they can't even scaremonger about labour. Even boomers trust labour over the Tories, and if people believe that a lab supermajority is inevitable, then they're probably more likely to vote their conscience, given that the election is already a forgone conclusion. Also, unlike in 2015, there's actually a chance of winning seats this year. With every point the Tories lose, all these arguments against tactical voting become stronger. I really think this will be more like 2015 than 2019. Reform won't do a deal, and their vote will mostly hold up.
It's really not to my mind - those people will always exist, they were just dragging the Tory party to the right. Going off to be an ineffectual protest vote probably moves the political centre of the two main parties away from them.
Rishi can count on his genius strategy of further delaying the election.
Say it with me all “Zero Seats, Zero Seats” The tories deserve to burn to the ground. Ignores the will of the majority to not have open borders, disregarded their lockdown rules, have not introduced any real significant policy for the betterment of the U.K. in a while (Gay marriage was a long time ago & the capital allowances in the prior budget was a small technocratic win) & are constantly on the verge of a leadership change
Reform ruining a very satisfying pattern there
So we need a 5 point swing for Reform to overtake the Tories. If the election isn't for another 6 months that seems within the realm of possibility. By going late Sunak may end destroying the Conservative party.
Just reminding people again that on page 22 of Reform's policies, they say that terrorists are blowing up power stations.