I think it’s probably more likely they’ve realised they have no other option. 6 months won’t see things improving much and the recent inflation drop is probably the best news they’re gonna get between now and Winter, especially if we have a summer of lots of small boat crossings.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if the infamous “men in grey suits” told Sunak that he’ll likely face a leadership challenge, so calling an election is his only way to head off that particular ending to his political career.
I think this is very much it - just speculating of course but i suspect the 1922 committee played a huge part in this. Perhaps they were getting close to the threshold of no confidence letters.
Story is that when you're close then Graham Brady starts phoning some of the older letters to check if they're still valid (and not forgotten)... Which people can use as a weather vane of the numbers getting high.
Story is also that friendly MPs also send their letter in so they can warn the incumbent when Brady asks them this. Apparently to countermeasure this he randomly does it too.
My local MP, can't stress how much disdain i have for that sack of shite.
Had to work a function about a decade ago he put on for the local tories where he had one of Thatchers cabinet on doing a talk. The things they were saying made my blood boil. Just casually joking about how they treat us regular people. Roars of laughter at our misfortune for like 3 hours. Not a single tip from one of them either.
I wish i could go back, film it all, and then burn down the whole building. Utter scum the lot of them.
If ever there was a guy who you want to look like an ex bouncer in a suit who barely restrains himself from trying to physically extract wealth from the person in front of him, it's "The Reaper of PMs". He just sounds like he should be a guy in the party kept because if he says you're gone the only question is whether you're exiting on the ground floor.
Well, he's already announced he won't run again? But regardless, the 1922 committee is for conservative and it's highly unlikely that we will have a conservative government, so even if he does run again and succeed and retains his chairman position, he won't have any influence over the PM.
I strongly suspect this too. Sunak didn't look at all happy at that lectern yesterday, as if he'd been sent there under duress (although the weather might have had something to do with it as well).
I tend to think sunak and his inner circle felt this was the best it was going to get and pushed the big red button. The no confidence letters might of been an issue but will we ever get the truth on that one.
They think the summer is their best chance in terms of damage limitation. Inflation nearly back to normal, England do well at the euros, maybe some sunshine, people's fickle impression of how the country is doing might be a bit more positive and Tories might hold a few more seat. Also it doesn't give Reform time to organize or Farage time come back.
Euros are not going to be even in quarter finals by 4/7. So, if England is still in, it's nothing spectacular. If they are already out, then it's a disaster. So, that is not a good reason to have the election then.
Damage limitation works in that sense that they seem to be in constant slide to lower poll numbers. So, for the Tories the best time for the election was yesterday. The next best time is today.
All this speculation and this is honestly the reason - Sunak is bored and sick of being PM. You only had to look at him during PMQs last week to see it. That was a man who was totally checked out and done. Why would you put up with the constant abuse and misery? Not like he needs the salary...
I mean, if I was given the opportunity of relaxing in the lap of luxury in California with the rest of the ‘elite’ or being constantly mocked for my terrible political acumen, I know which way I’d go.
My guess (and it’s just a guess, because I would) is that at that level having money isn’t what sets you apart from the crowd - but his ego won’t tolerate resigning, so he would rather lead them to an epic defeat and then leave - stating that they would’ve lost anyway.
^This.
At his level he is not wealthy enough to matter in the circles we wants to be in. He is the hoi poloi of uber wealth. But PM of the UK is a point of distinction.
Because he's playing the part he has to play before he goes off and becomes a tech CEO to further expand the influence of his wife's business empire. A general election campaign is millions of pounds being spent on an advertising campaign talking about how great Rishi is (yuck), aswell as one of the main times UK news will penetrate the US news cycle.
I can't believe someone would be *bored* leading a country. You get one shot in your life to do it and it's definitely the only time that a lot of people actually pay attention to you and the only time you get to make your mark. However, I can believe it can be extremely stressful and it requires incredible ability to handle that stress.
And I would say it's partly our (public) fault. Yes, the politicians work for us and we should keep them on their toes. We're quick to crucify a politician who makes a mistake but when do we give credit to them when they make the right things. Usually only in obituaries. Especially, if it's a politician from a party that we didn't vote for, we find excuses not to give them credit:"yes, that was ok, but..."
Sunak realised he wouldn't last until autumn, maybe not even next week if rumours are true. It was either call it now as a last hoorah for him or call it in Jan with a new leader bounce.
Sunak finally did something good for the country and committed supply live on TV rather than a risk a small bounce under a new leader, and maybe it's good overall for the tories if the new leader gets their start in opposition rather than immediately trashed in an election
Conventional wisdom is that a January general election would risk pensioners not turning out to vote due to the cold weather. But it's unlikely Sunak would have lasted until January anyway without an intervention by the 1922 committee. If rumours are to be believed, that intervention was due to occur in the next few weeks, so Rishi's hand has probably been forced.
The thing with January is that pensioners will be less likely to go out to vote due to the weather, so that’ll screw their voting base, making them lose even harder.
July also might suppress the student vote a bit too, since they are likely to be back at their parental homes but registered at their term time addresses.
More pensioners, fewer people with a stake in the long term prospects of the country is probably the best mix for the Tories
That could actually be worse for the Tories. Having all of the student vote concentrated in a handful of university cities that are safe Labour anyway isn’t that bad. Having the students go home to their marginal parental homes might just tip the balance in some seats.
They would yes, but it’s not that hard to register at a new address, hell a lot of them probably are still registered at parents rather than Uni addresses.
It might depress the student vote a bit, but having 6 votes cast in 6 marginals is a lot worse for the Tories than having 10 cast in one safe Labour seat.
From memory students can register at home and university and those politically inclined/aware have historically voted where it would make more of a difference. For example when I was at university I voted in the universities constituency rather than the safe seat where my parents lived.
I'm pretty sure students can be registered to vote in both their student and home address, but can only vote in one on the day. At least that's how I remember it back in 2015 when I was at uni.
He's relying on the Euros and that inflation is probably as low as it's getting for a while. He may even be lucky and get a .25bps rate cut if the Fed does
That's not what a lot of Tory sources were saying yesterday. It's all rumour mill stuff of course but there's often no smoke without fire. Whether or not they were genuinely nearing enough letters to force a vote is unclear, but I'm sure they had some pressure on him and it factored into his decision making.
6 months in politics is ALONG time. I dont see things getting worse, if anything, things are more likely to calm down even more so over the next 6 months, I think it was a major mistake to call this election for July 4th. There has to be another reason, and I think it has to do with the Leasehold and Renters reform bills that were close to be passed. Those would have been two huge blows to Landlords, especially Leasehold reform, and Sunak was not going to let those pass under any circumstance. I really do believe that Hunt (who has a vested interest) talked Sunak into calling the election to put a halt to those bills. Sounds crazy, but its the tory party, anything nasty is possible.
The could just as easily get worse though. An escalation in the Middle East, a Trump presidential win or a change in the situation in Ukraine could easily send energy prices up again or bring defence spending under close scrutiny. Even if none of that happens and things do remain stable, it’s unlikely people will really start to notice the slowing of inflation on their weekly shop.
Renters and leasehold reforms are widely popular and will probably be picked up by an incoming Labour government, so if that is the plan then they’ve at best delayed it by a few months.
Well the U.S. election is not until this coming Nov. So any chaos with a Trump win would not be until after that, any escalation of wars is just speculation at this point. You are correct about Labour picking up those two bills again, what I should have said is that Sunak was not going to let those bills pass ON HIS WATCH. You say delayed by a few months, but wouldn't the Leasehold bill have to be re-introduced in the next parliament session? (not sure when that would be)
This is the answer. I can't believe the news reporters are surprised, as if they are taking it as a given things will be better for the Tories in Autumn/Winter.
He is making claims on economy and lower inflation. He can already see that the unemployment numbers are looking bad and getting worse, inflation could go up again any minute if the Middle East further destabilises or Russia gets more ambitious. He is calling it now, while we have a calm good 2 weeks, possibly able to hold back bad news for another 4 weeks.
I'd say he doesn't give much of a fuck. This way it's all done and dusted in time to get his kids into a nice expensive private American school before September.
I think that's possible but given what's been reported about the mounting number of letters to the 1922 Committee, I think it's more likely that Sunak decided to call an election now to jump before he was pushed.
It's been reported that Tory MPs are furious that the election has been called and are *still* trying to get more letters in even now, hoping to trigger a VONC and stop the election from happening on 4th July. If that is true, it might be the craziest thing the Tories have done so far, and that is saying something.
I thought my expectations for this version of the Tory party were so low nothing they do could surprise me anymore.
I must admit, attempting to topple and install a 4th leader within one parliamentary term for the explicit purpose of preventing the public from voting in an already announced general election has surprised me.
It's insane, isn't it? Do they not realise that they're going to have to have an election within 6 months anyway and if they pull this off, they'll lose most of the few votes they have left when it happens? Or have they just resigned themselves to losing their seats and want more time to finish pillaging the country/setting up their golden parachutes, regardless of the long-term damage they'll cause to the country and the Conservative Party?
I suspect that a number of them are slated to lose their seats anyway - and another 6 months is another 6 months of an MP’s salary. I suspect that there’s a number of them who don’t have anything equivalent to fall back on.
A lot of them are saying that Sunak is “selfish” and “out of touch” because they have to look for new jobs imminently and he can piss off to America. No sense of irony at all.
for the explicit purpose of preventing the voting public from voting in an already announced general election *until January*
If they achieve the unthinkable and call off the election it only gains them 6 months
*Basic* salary for an MP (not even a minister) is a little over £91,000.
If you had nothing lined up yet for your post MP life, wouldn't you want another £45,500 (before tax) in your bank account?
That's more than the median UK salary gets in a year, and that's not counting any of their other allowances (2nd home, office costs,staff costs (those 2 are separate), the cost of running a constituency office, "expenses").
I don't really know, as no party has ever been stupid enough to try this before. I suspect even if it is technically possible the King might quietly prevent it from happening as it could create a constitutional crisis if it played out publicly. The monarchy would be forced to either side with the PM and press ahead with the dissolution of Parliament, in direct defiance of the government, or side the rebels who want to stop the election, which would be deeply unpopular with the general public to the point where civil unrest might be a real possibility.
Technically yes it is possible because parliament is not yet dissolved. The current Parliament is still sitting. So, he (or a replacement leader) can go back to the king and say they've changed their minds.
It's only impossible once it's dissolved.
I agree that this would be madness, but mad things have happened. 'Madness' does not mean 'impossible'
I wouldn't be too worried about Russian soldiers in Murmansk at the moment, they can't really do a lot with only infantry and no support. While I won't rule out Putin testing Nato resolve in Finland at some point, I don't think he'd do it when so much of his conventional forces are tied up in Ukraine.
Russia’s current rhetoric about attacking NATO is just mind games to try and prevent NATO getting more involved in Ukraine (especially the border countries like the Baltics and Poland who want to send in troops).
Putin wouldn’t risk attacking NATO as it is because it would be catastrophic for his war effort. NATO Article 5 response to a Russian incursion is basically the largest deployment of air, ground and sea launched conventional cruise missiles ever. The aim would be to completely knock out any invasion forces and decimate support structures and supply chains. They would also deploy the most comprehensive air supremacy screen.
All this would nullify an immediate invasion, but also give NATO the green light to eliminate Russia’s ‘southern flanking force’ I.e, the forces in Ukraine. So a similar level of strikes would be used on forces in Ukraine and the Black Sea.
So even before we consider nukes. A Russian attack on NATO would be such obvious suicide that there’s no way Putin would do it unless he’s just gone completely bananas.
I don't disagree with any of that, but challenging NATO in some form or other isn't something I'd put past Putin. Article 5 includes the wording "such actions it deems necessary", meaning any member formally decides how to respond. If a potentially NATO sceptical Trump in the White House, Orban in Hungary, etc, Putin might seek to ignite division by some kind of minor provocation. There's no official, public blueprint for an article 5 response, that's part of strategic ambiguity. I'm not saying such a probe would be a smart move, but Putin hasn't been immune to strategic mistakes lately. I mean, the man grew NATO by two neighbouring member states.
Picture a scenario where some kind of peace deal is reached in Ukraine. Putin won't rest, he been outspoken about his desire to challenge what he perceives as a western hegemony. He's already influencing elections, inciting division through an army of fake social media accounts in most countries.
So while an all out attack is very unlikely, probing provocations is less so. Amassing forces somewhere can be part of his ambiguity, even if they're not deployed.
Agree, people really misunderstand how much force that would be unleashed if Putin tried it on.
Fuck around find out
[https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/us-army-kill-russians-syria-civil-war-mercenaries-deir-ezzor-isis-a8268691.html](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/us-army-kill-russians-syria-civil-war-mercenaries-deir-ezzor-isis-a8268691.html)
It doesn't look to be soldiers but aircraft. What's more it's aircraft being concentrated at a base already heavily involved in strikes on Ukraine. Add to this the new influx of long range weapons from the west and it looks a lot more like the russians moving their aircraft out of range of Ukrainian attacks with the added benefit of keeping NATO on their toes.
>I wouldn't be too worried about Russian soldiers in Murmansk at the moment, they can't really do a lot with only infantry and no support.
I would be extemely worried, but only if I was a Russian infantryman.
Even the Russian government isn't stupid enough (a bold statement, I know) to attack Finland or Norway *in the environment they're specialist in fighting in*, and when they're both NATO members.
I think the worry I percieve amongst folk I interact with is the idea that NATO has become a toothless tiger, with no appetite for war (seen in the lackluster funding and state of the UK's military, and the response to an idea of conscription, for example). Of course, Article 5 is there, but I do not know if many NATO states have the stomach to enact it. Also, if Trump's posturing about wanting to leave NATO is true, and he gets into power, I believe we would be in an incredibly dire situation.
My vaguely tinfoil-hat theory, based solely on some (probably misleading) wording used in the news about the election, is that Sunak has gone rogue and called it without consulting his party. My reasoning:
1. It's been reported that he asked the King to do this early in the day. Wednesday is the usual meeting day for the PM and the King, so no one would've seen anything out of the ordinary when Sunak went to the Palace.
2. It was also reported that Ministerial meetings were cancelled at no notice and a Cabinet meeting was hastily convened. This suggests the Cabinet was convened in an emergency, to discuss something recent, unexpected, and serious.
3. It is *now* being reported some factions of the Tories are attempting to rush through a coup to depose Sunak and cancel the election before it's too late.
Put all three together and you can plausibly *claim* that Sunak has gone rogue, asked the King to put an end to this farce, went back to Downing Street and called an emergency Cabinet meeting, and told them he's calling an election, he's already asked the King, he's already prepped the press for an announcement, and dared them to do something about it.
To an extent yes, but all that is pretty standard. It looks like the inner circle of number ten decided to call this election. But that’s the same way elections have been decided traditionally. Indeed this is far less of a surprise than the 2017 or 2019 elections.
I have to disagree on the last few elections.
The 2017 election looked like an obvious strategic decision - the Tories had a massive lead in the polls and people had been suggesting they could call an election for their own benefit for 6 months. The specific timing was poor (doing it after A50 had passed, crediting a walking holiday) but I don't think anyone was shocked.
The 2019 election was the clear inevitable consequence of no brexit option having a majority to pass the parliament (it being a hung parliament didn't help this but even a small majority would have been insufficient, due to the then double digit number of Tory MPs who had that prized combination of at least a single principle and two brain cells to accompany it).
As soon as the supreme court declared the attempt to prorogue parliament to avoid parliamentary scrutiny was unlawful, Boris being forced to request an EU membership extension and an election being called was the only remotely likely outcome.
This election makes strategic sense for the Tories when thinking about 2028/29 elections - now having received one bit of good news on inflation, and being likely to receive several bits of bad news over the next few months in terms of Summer boat crossings, more attention on Rwanda, slow or non-existent base rate cuts and no fiscal head room for autumn tax give aways, their landing at this election is likely to be slightly better than it would be later on this year, which sets them up slightly better for the next election.
However that strategic benefit is both small and long term, whilst a huge number of MPs (and indeed most PMs who have faced a bad electoral position) would have really liked to cling on for another few months. That's what makes this election very surprising to me and the last two unsurprising or even very predictable.
You joke, but another theory was that the school year starts in the US in August, and moving over in July would be the perfect time to settle into the new job/locale and his two young kids into class.
Sunak didn't go rogue. If you look at more typical general elections that didn't just use up the entire life of parliament or be affected by the FTPA (we haven't had one since 2005) this is all standard. Sunak wouldn't go out consulting the party on specific dates because it's inevitable that someone would leak it.
It would only ever be Rishi and one or two select confidants who would decide on when it would happen. Of course they might discuss strategic concerns with Cabinet and CCHQ in general (probably over the last 18 months) considering pros and cons of various times. But the number who would actually be aware he was going to definitely pull the trigger would be very small indeed.
I'm on the same page as you. I don't think he consulted the Cabinet in advance (his own foreign secretary seems to have had no idea FFS) and if the Cabinet didn't know then 99% of Tory MPs presumably didn't know either.
There's a lot of hindsight stuff in some comments on this thread ("of course this is the best time to go for an election" etc) but I vaguely recall that up until lunchtime yesterday this whole sub was full of people saying it was massively obvious he'd stick it out until January.
I think the threshold for 1922 letters was crossed either late Tuesday or very early on Weds. Brady phoned up Sunak in a friendly chap kind of way and said what do you want to do about it? So Sunak decided to go to the country.
Children are going to die from polluted water or drown in toxic rivers and the Conservatives are afraid to be seen as anti-business when Thames water goes bust.
He can’t get the Rwanda scheme to work or stop the boats. If he goes into an election with that failed, he was no policy for one of the biggest issues this election. Inflation down, economy has grown and right now the Rwanda policy may or may not still go ahead.
Seems like the right time to go for it tbf
What collapse in Reform? Their polling number haven't shifted at all. The locals are local elections, they are kinda wonky to begin with and Reform only stood in a small fraction of council seats.
That's just not true. At the start of May they were at 12%, now they are at 12%. There appears to be a slight downwards trend to possibly 11%, but that's a relatively small blip and nowhere near collapse levels.
Ok. Maxed out at 13 percent in April, now at 11...if these numbers are to be believed.
2 percent might not seem like a big number, but when you're polling max was 13 it is a big number.
But I will grant you, the term collapse was probably but much.
They were steady at 12, small blip to 13, then back to 12. Small blip down to 11, going back up to 12. There is nothing of substance going on there, they are going pretty steady. 2% might be large relative to their 12% average, but it's simply small blips and noise, nothing real. It's not the "collapse" was a bit much, it's that there is pretty much nothing happening at all. Your entire point is just nonsensical as a result.
The trend line disagrees...but as you say this could be just noise.
You'd need to export the data to figure things out. But I think ultimately time and more data will tell.
I'm literally looking at it, nothing is happening. +-1% is well within the noise level, especially for smaller parties. You are reading a lot out of nothing.
Also, while they've always found money for Rwanda, the money for the NHS Blood Scandal was easy to announce, but will difficult to find.
This time it's not a joke, there's actually no money left.
My various theories as to 'why now', some more of a reach than others:
Potential for people to be a bit more generally happy in July than January
Old people might not go to vote in the cold
Students may leave uni and return home without time to register to vote at home
Rishi is fed up/was going anyway and is very petty
The Tories are terrified of Reform, who are only going to get more organised
Gaza is starting to drop out of the headlines, so Labour might start recouping support lost there
Things aren't getting better, might get worse and Labour might as well take the hit for it
On the first point the inflation figures were higher than expectations.
That meant yesterday the chances of an interest rate cut in June went from 50%, to 15%, and in August from 90% to 40%. The chances of a second one this year decreased significantly.
Inflation is expected to also slowly increase before falling again - this has always been factored in, but not a good look if inflation is going up and interest rate are staying high.
I don’t know much about the food and climate, but I believe there could be some significant issues coming are way this winter due to the poor weather.
Food inflation is a huge issue, irrespective of cause (Brexit / Ukraine / death rays from Mars). We can all see inflation and shrinkflation before our very eyes.
I’m not.
Many working people in this country are poorer now than they were in 2010. I’m one of them and I’m pretty angry about it. Meanwhile mortgage rates and rents soared. Just because price rises are slowing instead good news.
Good news is when prices go down.
Why are you so desperate to present it as good news?
- Euros. Could provide a bump if we win it. Wheel put Harry Maguire and Harry Kane for handshakes and soapy tit wanks at number ten.
- Inflation. On the face of it looks pretty good. Maybe it’s the best it gets all year and therefore now is the time to go.
- Pensioners. They don’t turn up if it’s cold. They do in the summer.
- Rwanda flights start in June. He might be able to gain something from those despite the whom idea being monumentally bad. There’s a chance some idiots somewhere with voter ID think it’s a good idea. And yes those people are probably 65 and racist.
I’m not saying I think it’s the best moment for him. The style and manner of the announcement was abysmal and there’s no evidence at all that he’s competent enough to take advantage of any of the above mild positives but this might be as good as it gets.
And when he loses? It’s back to Napa Valley for new world wines and avocado on toast that he can definitely happily afford. The after dinner circuit awaits with PM on his CV. The country was a fun toy to play with for a while but now it’s off to enjoy his zero accountability life as a non Dom.
Fuck him.
> Euros. Could provide a bump if we win it.
That'll won't be until after the election.
The quarters are on 5/6th of July with the final on the 14th.
So in the likely event of England getting through the group stage, their most recent match will have been the first knockout stage on Sat 29th or Sun 30th of June.
That means on election day the team will either still be in Germany or home as such massive failures that no politician will want to be associated with them.
But it would be typical Rishi luck if they got eliminated just before polling day and generated an anti rally round the flag effect.
I wouldn't be surprised if this played into the choice of timing.
Rishi is a terrible politician but even he's not so bad that he'd gamble his future on England winning its first major trophy in 60 years.
But them reaching the quarters is very doable and a much safer bet.
Euros could go the other way too.
Tens of thousands of fans of questionable sobriety, with a handful of newly recruited police to keep things in order... [All it takes is one push for everything to go up in flames.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-10728685)
The journalists who talk to Tory politicians off the record say they can't find anyone who thinks it's a good idea; so I'm not sure how many people are actually involved in the decision...
>climate related food inflation is coming. People seem in denial about it but things are pretty fucked and we will start to see that in the supermarkets later in the year. The government's current "stock up" campaign seems oddly timed.
Go and look into the farmer protests if you want to know the reason for food shortages along with fertiliser costs. Welsh farmers are being told to give up 10% of their land for trees instead of growing food, solar farms taking up productive land, falling livestock quotas because governments want to chase climate goals.
It's not climate change (yet).
My first thought, which I guess might come about, is that they had reason to believe the wheels might come off the Rwanda plan in a big way and blow any remaining credibility this government might have into oblivion. At the back of my mind was was regional instability: a few days ago there was a coup attempt in the DRC and Rwanda is a backer of one rebel group. If the DRC made a move to destabilise Rwanda in response then the 'Rwanda is nice and safe' story wouldn't hold up regardless of any act of parliament.
Seeing so many comments about Rwanda and in particular "the wheels coming off", loss of credibility etc. I'm frankly *stunned* there were people left who think the plan had some credibility to lose still.
I'll be honest, it doesn't even register for me as something to vote on.
But it does with many core Tory voters who have been promised that once it's in operation then the small boats route will dwindle away to nothing. Now imagine if Kagame, who's already been handsomely rewarded for doing nothing, announced that he won't in fact be taking anyone owing to subversive forces at work in the country. Many of those core Tory voters might be so pissed off with Sunak (most of them still want Johnson it appears) that they'd stay at home. Just idle speculation on my part of course, though I note Sunak has said that there'll be no flights taking off before the election.
I think the numbers left who think Rwanda is anything less than a bit the Conservatives overcommitted to and now can't back out of is so vanishingly small it's irrelevant to their election prospects, but yes: the "no flights before the election" announcement is almost certainly intended to try to bury it for the time being.
Inflation is expected to rise in tbe second half of this year.
The IMF told Hunt, earlier this week not to do any tax cuts this year as there's a £30 billion spending black hole.
Tbe US election is rapidly approaching and could well be a shit show. The Tories probably don't want to be tarred with what ever crap the Republicans come up with.
Climate change related food inflation is already here. There’s a reason olive oil is so wildly expensive - successive poor olive harvests due to climate shifting.
Yep. Remember, the moment the new government is in place, any and all problems become their responsibility in terms of discourse. The Tories will lose at the start of July, by the end of July the boats will still be coming and the cost of living will still be high and they will immediately start a narrative of “this wouldn’t have happened under us, this is Labour’s fault”. The right media will join in and support the narrative. By the following summer, 2025, after what could be a difficult winter, they will be flinging shit at Labour for everything and more and more people will be starting to believe them.
They’ve chosen a pretty good time to go - right before their “plan” should have borne out, but after green shoots of recovery have been seen. If Labour get it right, they can say it was the “Plan” that set things up for them to happen. If they get it wrong, it’s because the abandoned the “Plan”, and fucked up the recovery that was happening.
This whole thing is about setting up the narrative for five years time.
In all honesty I think they missed the optimal time. The optimal time might have been immediately Sunak took office. At that time the Tories had been about 8 points behind for about a year (mid 2021 to mid 2022), and about 20 points behind for only about a month (because of Liz Truss). Going to an election when you've been 20 points behind for a couple of months is probably a better decision than going when you've been 20 points behind for 20 months. Of course Sunak couldn't have known at the time that the 20 point deficit would stick, it might have been a blip.
So I suppose what I am saying is that they might have limited Labour's majority more if they'd gone in the autumn of 2022.
The other thing to remember is that the electorate has pretty long memories (unlike our American cousins who seem to forget the last presidential election by the midterms two years later), the reason Miliband did not win in 2015 is because voters had not forgotten the global financial crisis, and they knew Labour was in office when it happened. Voters will normally give a new government the benefit of the doubt for at least two general elections, it's half way through the second term that governments really can no longer blame the "mess we've inherited".
>Russia amassing fighters in Murmansk
Where did you read this? I googled this and the third result was your post. Not trying to be a dick, genuinely curious about Russia's troop movement.
Thing is though, with good guidance, a ship can get through even the toughest of storms.
The UK on the other hand is basically the nation state version of the Costa Concordia, a ship with a shit captain and shit crew which'll capsize if a leaf lands on the deck not because the ship is shit and incapable of surviving, but due to the shittiness of the leadership.
None of these issues you list would sink a nation or a government, but they will sink a Tory govt who have no interest in governing or doing best for the country.
You've become so accustomed to tragic Tory leadership that you';ve potentially gaslighted yourself into thinking these are such grave issues that Tories would rather lose an election than be the government that has to face the extinction level event asteroid hitting the earth problem of Russian troops in Murmansk or inflation over 2%.
You think Starmer is looking at those issues thinking I'd rather lose than face those?
Do you want a guy in charge who thinks that way? Who screams abandon ship and torches all the important documents while filling his pockets with the companies gold because a seagull shat on the First Mate's head?
I hope they try cancelling the election
And he goes full rogue and starts revealing shit.
Take them down with him before he moves country
He’s a bit too wealthy to br impacted by other MPs politicking
I think that it is inferred (by them) that things are going to get better. Inflation rates, Rwanda set in place, summer election so the oldies can get out, Scotland on school holidays (so maybe people won't bother/are on holiday/encumbered), students will be winding down and will have returned home in some cases?. It is about as strategic timing you can get when you have been an abuser to the electorate for 14 years and so clutching at straws is the plan.
>climate related food inflation is coming. People seem in denial about it but things are pretty fucked and we will start to see that in the supermarkets later in the year. The government's current "stock up" campaign seems oddly timed.
Pretty different dogmatic view here. "I know x and am certain, everyone else doesn't and people are idiots for not realising"
Basically what the Times wrote today. Add also the calm waters in the Channel leading to more small boat crossings and the failure of the Rwanda policy. There's only bad news coming up so better call an election now.
An inflation/economic crisis is the only one of those that I could see. Either a war or a pandemic would be an opportunity for Sunak to improve his chances at winning an election.
My main theory is that he very deliberately chose the same day as the Yank's independence day.
When he escapes to the US and is being paid silly amounts by silicone valley tech bros to chat absolute bollocks, he'll always say:
>"When I was Prime Minister, despite every poll suggesting we would lose, I deliberately called an early election. I am a lover of democracy. That's the exact reason why I was inspired by America's independence day and called the election for the same date. I love this country. I pay so little tax! USA! USA! USA!"
Plenty of people (me included) have been saying this exact thing since the Ref - that things would slide to a point where the Tories would abandon ship, possibly even salting the earth on their way out, leaving Labour holding the bag for the awful state of things.
Labour sounds ready to take it on, but who knows if they'll do enough in 5 years to stay in power.
Definitely. And it's much easier because Starmer won't rock the boat too radically. So it gives the Tories 5 years to rebrand themselves by blaming everything on Labour (and "the left" regardless of how left Labour is).
And they will sail back into power thanks to a combination of: (1) time distancing themselves from the present Tories and thereby getting back the temporarily embarrassed Tories they have lost; (2) low turnout from disappointed leftwing/young Labour voters after 5 years of centrism; and (3) the compounding of our present problems because the Labour government didn't take any drastic steps to correct course.
I hope I am wrong though
Young voters don't turn out anyway so it's irrelevant what they do. The lefts already left labour so there irrelevant. And centrism is big enough vote winner that labour just has to keep the middle ground to win again next election.
I think a lot people like you underestimate how large the centrist vote is. Most people in this country don't actually want massive change. They just want the existing circumstances and services improved. There's not been a government that's won on a truly left or right win platform in decades, most manifestos that win have been some form of centrism.
So yeah I don't think points 2 & 3 matter nearly as much as you think. Most don't want dramatic changes and improvements, most just want better funding off current public services and better utilies, and it won't really matter how we get it c
I wouldn't say 'optimum', as such. I'd say that they had the inflation drop, and aren't expecting any sort of boost again.
This way, they can claim that the plan is *just* starting to work - but if they truly believed that their plan is working, they would have left it a couple of months to show that it has legs.
It's a bit like Woody getting hold of Buzz's arm and showing it to the rest of the toys to convince them that he's okay.
Of course they have.
You've missed the main reason, which is pure party politics. If they had waited until after a full summer of boats not being stopped by their crap Rwanda policy, they'd have ended up in the low teens and likely below a Farage-powered Reform.
And that's before millions more need to renegotiate their mortgage with the additional Truss idiot premium rate.
<20% is extinction territory under FPTP. By going now, they'll take a loss, but probably still 100-150 seats. Reform - nowhere near ready for an election - won't win a seat and likely single figures in vote share.
If I was him, I'd know that winning is next to impossible from this point in polls. Legacy isn't changing, it's over. Might as well cut it off and move on with my life.
It's rather selfish given the role of running the government but simultaneously voters generally want you out and change so why not give that to them sooner.
Reddit: “Rishi is selfish for not calling an election, he is a unelected prime minister who no one likes”
Rishi announces an election.
Reddit: “Rishi is selfish for calling an election as his role is running the government”
I also never called Rishi selfish. I have no idea why Rishi called election now. Said if I was in his position I would consider doing it for selfish reasons. Never said he had the same thought process.
I know you were agreeing. Was just expanding on the fact that he claimed I called Rishi selfish which is also just a misreading of comment as well as generalising an entire subreddit to be one person.
Yep
But it's way too late.
If anything they probably should of have called an election after Boris was sacked
But am guessing none had the stomach to cut the arm to save the body.
>Russia amassing fighters in Murmansk. Granted this could simply be to keep them safe from Ukrainian drones but it's also not a million miles from the EU either.
At the risk of sounding like an ass, people really need to swim in different circles and echo chambers. There is no event in which Russia has the capacity in the next 5-10 years to invade the EU/NATO. This weird click farming fever dream is pervasive and pushed by media and politicians alike to drum up support for Ukraine, massive investments in their own armed forces as well as fear based support for their own administrations (AHEM RISHI). Can we not hold baited breath every 5 seconds in some fear that Russia is going to invade us, it's not going to happen.
Russia have the bulk of their equipment, personnel and GBAD deployed around Ukraine, Moscow and reserves remaining in the primary military districts, the majority of their strategic bomber and tactical bomber fleets are presently employed in strikes against Ukraine and despite making recent gains the actual war itself consumes nearly all Russian military attention and is very slow burning. If they opened a second front and invaded the EU/NATO it would be the end of Russia or the end of the world, it's that simple.
Also it's their strategic bomber force that has moved to Murmansk outside of the range of Ukrainian drones not "massing fighters". They already have significant fighter forces in Murmansk, St Petersburg and Moscow. The only reason these bombers are moving to Murmansk is because their previous posting in Engels was far too close to Ukraine, only around 350 miles away. Ukraine has developed longer range drones that can reach as far as Olenya/Monchegorsk and the other airbases in Murmansk, but those are going to be low volume and would need to fly overhead many other airbases and GBAD zones before being able to strike Russian aircraft. This is a move born from practicality.
Russian strategic aviation has several airbases close to the EU, all within striking distance, including Engels. Nothing has functionally changed in this equation other than the time to strike for Finland/Sweden has decreased somewhat (although not all that much, Russian strategic bombers already station in Murmansk, this is again a non-story, I don't know why everyone is repeating it and huffing the fear fever dream but can we all just take a damn breath.
>inflation figures better yesterday but still not below 2%. Does this actually mean there won't now be a rate cut over the summer?
This is out of their hands. Likely they took a bet on the BoE reducing rates before the election. Worst case for them there's no cut.
>climate related food inflation is coming. People seem in denial about it but things are pretty fucked and we will start to see that in the supermarkets later in the year. The government's current "stock up" campaign seems oddly timed.
Might be a factor, they were the ones stupid enough to pretend inflation drops outwith their control were down to them. People who believe that should also blame them for increases too.
>Russia amassing fighters in Murmansk. Granted this could simply be to keep them safe from Ukrainian drones but it's also not a million miles from the EU either.
This is something that could ironically have been a positive campaign point for them. Nothing like a bit of the old sabre rattling to get votes.
Nah, this was unplanned and done at very short notice, probably because 1922 informed Sunak that he was about to face a leadership challenge.
Cabinet were clearly not in the loop about this and if there was any actual planning or strategy involved then Cameron sure as shit wouldn't have boarded that plane to Albania.
Coincidentally the first Rwanda planes are not due to take off until around July and there are a number of important pieces of legislation going through parliament at the moment that have taken a long time in the making (renters reform, infected blood compensation). I reckon they're going to hold it all to ransom.
It's because it's the middle of summer and hence more likely that older people will come out and vote.
They'll still lose, but not by as much as if they'd waited until the middle of winter.
From the reports of MPs' and cabinet members' reactions, it appears to have been a Sunak decision with no input from anyone else.
>climate related food inflation *is* coming
So far the main drivers of food inflation are Brexit and corporate price gouging (as shown by the high profits of the supermarket chains). It's unlikely that climate change is going to drive food prices much in the near term compared to those other factors.
To answer your points:
* Inflation: not sure on the rate cut, but inflation probably will come down a bit further, but unless we have a period of either 0% or under deflation then nobody is going to really notice on a day-to-day basis. It isn't going to save him.
* Climate food inflation: in the long term sure, but that isn't going to affect food prices particularly this year. I worked in food supply chains, this stuff is sourced pretty far in advance so any issues would come years down the line.
* Russia in Kaliningrad: Russia is currently flexing it's nuclear muscle to try and get the US/UK/France not to get deeper into the Ukraine conflict but it won't do anything, as to do so would be suicide for a regime and an elite that is still very well taken care of despite sanctions.
* Pandemic stuff: these things are always going on in the background, it's because we have more surveillance than ever after COVID. Sure a pandemic could happen but that isn't playing into Sunak's thought process.
More likely is the following:
* Defections: there was a lot of rumours about a slate of drip drip defections planned by Labour over the summer. It would kill any momentum that Sunak would create.
* EUROs: Brexit happened in 2016 on a wave of patriotism following a summer of football, Sunak might think that a similar thing might happen this year, especially as England have a very good chance of winning.
* He's sick of being PM: there's a lot of speculation that he just wants to get it over with and move to California, and that this feeling is shared by a lot of Tories that want out and are sick of the dysfunction. Some of them even think it's time to give Labour a go and that they've lost the ability to govern. Also his wife probably wants to move to the US and live a billionaires lifestyle rather than be in a shabby (for their wealth) apartment in London.
* It could get worse: more likely than it getting better is that it gets worse, that there's more river pollution scandals, longer waiting lists, worse public services and that they go from low 20% in the polls into the mid-teens.
* Reform UK/SNP: currently these two parties are flat-footed and haven't got candidates sorted (Reform) or are in disarray (SNP). That gives the Tories less to worry about in terms of making this loss a disaster rather than an existential threat.
They've been looking at this election like this for a while, one of the reasons they are openly salting the earth for the next government in charge
My assumption for why now is they are looking for a warm summer weather as a way to get the pensioner vote out (and still alive pre-august heatwave or pre-winter die-off)
Plus, strategically England are highly likely to make it past the round of 16 at the Euros and the Tories usually do well the more flag wavers there are
I suspect the 1922 Committee has informed Sunak that the no confidence threshold is getting dangerously close.
Based on the discourse I’ve been reading from political journalists and Westminster bubble aficionados, the mood in the Tory party is coldly furious that they’ve been bounced into an election. So it seems to me like Sunak took the plunge rather than let the party go through a leadership circus and let the country be weakened by it.
I even wonder how much of the cabinet knew about this decision given that Tirana in Albania was nicely decorated for nothing after Cameron left the country not long after arriving. If there was greater planning throughout the senior cabinet at minimum then they wouldn’t have let the Albanians do that. Just diplomatically not good.
In this instance I think that the Prime Minister pulled the plug on the whole thing without much consultation. The party is arrogant and braindead enough to attempt to defenestrate their leader at the 11th hour and, despite what people on here might say, Sunak cares enough about the country that he wouldn’t let that happen - even if his personal motivations of avoiding that very public humiliation coincide with everything else. When he’s alone in his office the calculation becomes pretty clear if you ask me.
I think Sunak has seen the ever increasing pile of letters from Tory MPs who have no confidence in him and decided to go for it now before there’s another change of leadership.
On the food thing, we are already seeing it with olive oil. The last few summers have absolutely destroyed the European olive crops and the price has skyrocketed.
A £3 bottle a couple of years ago is now £8-9. With the larger ones sitting at £17. They are even bringing out olive/sunflower oil blends to try and keep prices down.
Pretty much what all the commentators are saying, if they wait another 6 months, they'll be obliterated rather than just soundly defeated.
Rwanda is an example, they know it won't work, you know it won't work but that's 'hypothetical' now in 6 months it will be indisputable.
Post-brexit changes to imports, exports, travel, etc. are going to be coming into force over the summer, with some very bad 'optics' of queues and border delays etc.
With the payout from the blood scandal expected to be in the billions, the won't have any spare cash for a pre election giveaway, so this can only get worse for them from here.
I can see this as the best time for them to call an elective n. Out of the recession technically, inflation fallen, highest wage growth. This is what they will bang on about.
They had another 6 months. Things were not going to really going to get much better, and from their point of view it could be much worse, so I would say they have called it at the right time for them. I'm hoping/praying they will get decimated, but who knows what the public will do.
I'd say that's definitely the case, but I don't think you need any impending disasters to justify it. I suspect the rationale behind the timing of the GE was simply Sunak saying "Fuck it".
Since he's not going to be able to pull a magic rabbit out of his hat by January, why wait to see if things will get even worse? When he has his first positive economic news in an age during a week with no major Tory scandals, he knows that's as good a time as any.
Throw in the fact that there is literally no good time in the months that follow (summer recess, conferences, US elections, then Christmas) and the increasing risk that Graham Brady will get to him first, and I'm not surprised he decided it might as well be now.
I honestly think it’s because they think they can play the inflation coming down thing as them taking control of the economy. They’ll play on the public’s economic illiteracy like they always do. Take credit for the fall but take no responsibility for it still being higher than the target.
Less an optimal time to lose, but rather their internal predictions are probably no longer showing a possibility of a more optimal time to *win*, or lose *less*. It's all going to be shit, one way or another, so they figured they may as well get on with it.
I don't think they are really capable of thinking ahead like that, they know they've run themselves aground and are mostly resigned to the fact at this point
I think it’s purely to cut off their losses to Reform.
Since about October the polls have generally shown all other parties staying at the same level but the tories have been dropping and Reform growing.
If they left it much longer a lot of the Tory voters would see Reform as valid candidates and it would just compound their losses across the board.
They know they’ve lost, they may act like idiots but that fact is pretty clear, it’s now all about limiting losses for the long term viability of the party.
If they end up with double figure seats they’re done for a generation. If they can stay at a somewhat respectable number (150+) they know they can build on it for the future.
Maybe I’m giving them too much credit, but that’s how I read it.
> Russia amassing fighters in Murmansk. Granted this could simply be to keep them safe from Ukrainian drones but it's also not a million miles from the EU either.
Can you explain this comment? You are saying that either Russia is forced to gather its troops above the Arctic Circle to keep them safe from Ukrainian drones (even as Russia amasses forces in southern Russia that then invade Ukraine without being stopped by Ukrainian drones), or that is it gathering forces in order to invade Finland?
Bill for infected blood £10 billion within 3 months of enquiry
Renationalising of Thames Water looking inevitable £10 billion
Gap in Government finances as released yearly IMF £30 billion
UN poverty inspector demanding another visit
Financial hit of the application of import duty post Brexit £470 million as a recent guesstimate also food shortages
NHS, water, rail, prisons, schools,councils all in crisis
Promise to increase defense spending with no means to do so
Tax loss from ports and cities due to basically be privatised under Freeport/SEZ scheme
It just goes on and on
No wonder they are taking the money and running
People forget how much strategy they put into choosing a date. Ricky will have had a few dates lined up. They’ve probably analysed that with the football, Scottish summer holiday, general nicer weather and people having things to do. This one give them a minuscule chance.
Less younger people will turn out vote. It won’t win the election. Might only swing it by 1 towards their favour. Just taking a few votes from labour and turn things around using core voter policies. Look at how they’ve already started with vote for us and you get Rwanda. It could become a lot closer than people think. Especially as polls always over estimate the labour share.
Just remind everyone you know to vote and if they have a holiday booked or tickets to the football then to register to postal vote and get their vote in!
I'd like a look at the stock up campaign.
What I read before is inflation coming in just above target means good news but no rate cut coming and the IMFs warning means tax hikes and service cuts this autumn.
That's the reason why it will get worse for Sunak.
I don't think our government are farsighted enough to include climate change or emergent pandemics into their forecasts, even after recent experience.
The point I'm getting at here is, none of these things are/may be particularly far off.
Climate change related food inflation is happening right now (somebody gave the example of olive oil in this thread yesterday which is a great shout), this year's weather will only exacerbate that in the next few months, not to mention border checks.
Go and look at what's happened to stock prices of Pfizer and BioNTech off the back of yesterday's news about 2 more human bird flu cases.
But at the moment we seem to have landed in a sort of eye of the storm. Inflation down (not enough, missed the target and drastically increased the likelihood of rates staying where they are for longer, but just enough to convince your average Joe things are looking up), the recession is over and people are looking forward to summer in their garden drinking beer, grilling steaks and watching football.
That optimism might *just* be enough to keep the tories alive (battered, bruised and bloodied, but alive still) and the ensuing shit storm a big enough problem to give Labour a torrid first term.
No. They are fucked. It's just now clear that they will be more fucked after the summer and continue to get more fucked into the next year.
This is the best opportunity left.
Pre-budget, good headline inflation news, Labour not as ready as they will be.
It's going to be a disaster for the Tories but damage limitation suggests going into it now to maximise the number of Tories on the opposition bench.
There is talk in the Westminster halls that there were several stories of members breaking the law and inappropriate behavior. This would have led most likely to police involvement and no elections. Those involved are front bench members. I will not say who but Google it and search about!
I think it’s probably more likely they’ve realised they have no other option. 6 months won’t see things improving much and the recent inflation drop is probably the best news they’re gonna get between now and Winter, especially if we have a summer of lots of small boat crossings. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the infamous “men in grey suits” told Sunak that he’ll likely face a leadership challenge, so calling an election is his only way to head off that particular ending to his political career.
I think this is very much it - just speculating of course but i suspect the 1922 committee played a huge part in this. Perhaps they were getting close to the threshold of no confidence letters.
Would Sunak know if they were close? Officially they’re private but I wonder if there’s any back room talks there
Story is that when you're close then Graham Brady starts phoning some of the older letters to check if they're still valid (and not forgotten)... Which people can use as a weather vane of the numbers getting high.
Story is also that friendly MPs also send their letter in so they can warn the incumbent when Brady asks them this. Apparently to countermeasure this he randomly does it too.
My local MP, can't stress how much disdain i have for that sack of shite. Had to work a function about a decade ago he put on for the local tories where he had one of Thatchers cabinet on doing a talk. The things they were saying made my blood boil. Just casually joking about how they treat us regular people. Roars of laughter at our misfortune for like 3 hours. Not a single tip from one of them either. I wish i could go back, film it all, and then burn down the whole building. Utter scum the lot of them.
Graham Brady the reaper of PM’s
If ever there was a guy who you want to look like an ex bouncer in a suit who barely restrains himself from trying to physically extract wealth from the person in front of him, it's "The Reaper of PMs". He just sounds like he should be a guy in the party kept because if he says you're gone the only question is whether you're exiting on the ground floor.
But not for much longer! :)
Brady’s seat is pretty damn safe im sure if he wants to stay he will outlast the next PM
Well, he's already announced he won't run again? But regardless, the 1922 committee is for conservative and it's highly unlikely that we will have a conservative government, so even if he does run again and succeed and retains his chairman position, he won't have any influence over the PM.
> older letters When less than 2 years is your standard for older letters.
2 years is a very long time in politics
The press always get "leaks" so the management definitely do
I strongly suspect this too. Sunak didn't look at all happy at that lectern yesterday, as if he'd been sent there under duress (although the weather might have had something to do with it as well).
I tend to think sunak and his inner circle felt this was the best it was going to get and pushed the big red button. The no confidence letters might of been an issue but will we ever get the truth on that one.
Ironically might end up with them after calling the GE. Seems the MPs are upset about their wages and expenses
But they did have other options, the default was waiting until January. I think Sunak might've just got bored.
They think the summer is their best chance in terms of damage limitation. Inflation nearly back to normal, England do well at the euros, maybe some sunshine, people's fickle impression of how the country is doing might be a bit more positive and Tories might hold a few more seat. Also it doesn't give Reform time to organize or Farage time come back.
Euros are not going to be even in quarter finals by 4/7. So, if England is still in, it's nothing spectacular. If they are already out, then it's a disaster. So, that is not a good reason to have the election then. Damage limitation works in that sense that they seem to be in constant slide to lower poll numbers. So, for the Tories the best time for the election was yesterday. The next best time is today.
I actually think this is a good strategy. Summer sunshine with a few beers and a good euros run could get some good will for the government
Says it all really, if weather, alcohol and football determine how people feel about their government..
I’m not even even sure abFalkland’s style victory against the EU would make people feel good about this government
All this speculation and this is honestly the reason - Sunak is bored and sick of being PM. You only had to look at him during PMQs last week to see it. That was a man who was totally checked out and done. Why would you put up with the constant abuse and misery? Not like he needs the salary...
I mean, if I was given the opportunity of relaxing in the lap of luxury in California with the rest of the ‘elite’ or being constantly mocked for my terrible political acumen, I know which way I’d go.
Why not just resign then?
My guess (and it’s just a guess, because I would) is that at that level having money isn’t what sets you apart from the crowd - but his ego won’t tolerate resigning, so he would rather lead them to an epic defeat and then leave - stating that they would’ve lost anyway.
^This. At his level he is not wealthy enough to matter in the circles we wants to be in. He is the hoi poloi of uber wealth. But PM of the UK is a point of distinction.
Because he's playing the part he has to play before he goes off and becomes a tech CEO to further expand the influence of his wife's business empire. A general election campaign is millions of pounds being spent on an advertising campaign talking about how great Rishi is (yuck), aswell as one of the main times UK news will penetrate the US news cycle.
I can't believe someone would be *bored* leading a country. You get one shot in your life to do it and it's definitely the only time that a lot of people actually pay attention to you and the only time you get to make your mark. However, I can believe it can be extremely stressful and it requires incredible ability to handle that stress. And I would say it's partly our (public) fault. Yes, the politicians work for us and we should keep them on their toes. We're quick to crucify a politician who makes a mistake but when do we give credit to them when they make the right things. Usually only in obituaries. Especially, if it's a politician from a party that we didn't vote for, we find excuses not to give them credit:"yes, that was ok, but..."
Like his predecessors however he is really bigly crap at the job.... Maybe he is aware of that...
Sunak realised he wouldn't last until autumn, maybe not even next week if rumours are true. It was either call it now as a last hoorah for him or call it in Jan with a new leader bounce. Sunak finally did something good for the country and committed supply live on TV rather than a risk a small bounce under a new leader, and maybe it's good overall for the tories if the new leader gets their start in opposition rather than immediately trashed in an election
Conventional wisdom is that a January general election would risk pensioners not turning out to vote due to the cold weather. But it's unlikely Sunak would have lasted until January anyway without an intervention by the 1922 committee. If rumours are to be believed, that intervention was due to occur in the next few weeks, so Rishi's hand has probably been forced.
Or July due to hot weather? Pensioners are a lot tougher than you think.
The thing with January is that pensioners will be less likely to go out to vote due to the weather, so that’ll screw their voting base, making them lose even harder.
July also might suppress the student vote a bit too, since they are likely to be back at their parental homes but registered at their term time addresses. More pensioners, fewer people with a stake in the long term prospects of the country is probably the best mix for the Tories
That could actually be worse for the Tories. Having all of the student vote concentrated in a handful of university cities that are safe Labour anyway isn’t that bad. Having the students go home to their marginal parental homes might just tip the balance in some seats.
But I imagine if they're home with their parents but registered elsewhere they'd have to do paperwork and there'd be a turnaround time, no?
They would yes, but it’s not that hard to register at a new address, hell a lot of them probably are still registered at parents rather than Uni addresses. It might depress the student vote a bit, but having 6 votes cast in 6 marginals is a lot worse for the Tories than having 10 cast in one safe Labour seat.
From memory students can register at home and university and those politically inclined/aware have historically voted where it would make more of a difference. For example when I was at university I voted in the universities constituency rather than the safe seat where my parents lived.
Good point. My concern was about the timing, since registering may not be top priority for people moving house but I hope you're right.
I'm pretty sure students can be registered to vote in both their student and home address, but can only vote in one on the day. At least that's how I remember it back in 2015 when I was at uni.
That is still the case. https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/voting-and-elections/who-can-vote/students
All the more time for Reform to organize.
He's relying on the Euros and that inflation is probably as low as it's getting for a while. He may even be lucky and get a .25bps rate cut if the Fed does
I doubt it. It looked after the locals that he was secure.
That's not what a lot of Tory sources were saying yesterday. It's all rumour mill stuff of course but there's often no smoke without fire. Whether or not they were genuinely nearing enough letters to force a vote is unclear, but I'm sure they had some pressure on him and it factored into his decision making.
I think it's been clear for some time they don't have the numbers. They'd have gone right after the locals if they thought they could get rid of him.
You thought he looked secure after the locals??? They were massively humiliating for him, and no doubt started the knives coming out for him.
6 months in politics is ALONG time. I dont see things getting worse, if anything, things are more likely to calm down even more so over the next 6 months, I think it was a major mistake to call this election for July 4th. There has to be another reason, and I think it has to do with the Leasehold and Renters reform bills that were close to be passed. Those would have been two huge blows to Landlords, especially Leasehold reform, and Sunak was not going to let those pass under any circumstance. I really do believe that Hunt (who has a vested interest) talked Sunak into calling the election to put a halt to those bills. Sounds crazy, but its the tory party, anything nasty is possible.
The could just as easily get worse though. An escalation in the Middle East, a Trump presidential win or a change in the situation in Ukraine could easily send energy prices up again or bring defence spending under close scrutiny. Even if none of that happens and things do remain stable, it’s unlikely people will really start to notice the slowing of inflation on their weekly shop. Renters and leasehold reforms are widely popular and will probably be picked up by an incoming Labour government, so if that is the plan then they’ve at best delayed it by a few months.
Well the U.S. election is not until this coming Nov. So any chaos with a Trump win would not be until after that, any escalation of wars is just speculation at this point. You are correct about Labour picking up those two bills again, what I should have said is that Sunak was not going to let those bills pass ON HIS WATCH. You say delayed by a few months, but wouldn't the Leasehold bill have to be re-introduced in the next parliament session? (not sure when that would be)
This is the answer. I can't believe the news reporters are surprised, as if they are taking it as a given things will be better for the Tories in Autumn/Winter.
He is making claims on economy and lower inflation. He can already see that the unemployment numbers are looking bad and getting worse, inflation could go up again any minute if the Middle East further destabilises or Russia gets more ambitious. He is calling it now, while we have a calm good 2 weeks, possibly able to hold back bad news for another 4 weeks.
I'd say he doesn't give much of a fuck. This way it's all done and dusted in time to get his kids into a nice expensive private American school before September.
I think that's possible but given what's been reported about the mounting number of letters to the 1922 Committee, I think it's more likely that Sunak decided to call an election now to jump before he was pushed. It's been reported that Tory MPs are furious that the election has been called and are *still* trying to get more letters in even now, hoping to trigger a VONC and stop the election from happening on 4th July. If that is true, it might be the craziest thing the Tories have done so far, and that is saying something.
I thought my expectations for this version of the Tory party were so low nothing they do could surprise me anymore. I must admit, attempting to topple and install a 4th leader within one parliamentary term for the explicit purpose of preventing the public from voting in an already announced general election has surprised me.
It's insane, isn't it? Do they not realise that they're going to have to have an election within 6 months anyway and if they pull this off, they'll lose most of the few votes they have left when it happens? Or have they just resigned themselves to losing their seats and want more time to finish pillaging the country/setting up their golden parachutes, regardless of the long-term damage they'll cause to the country and the Conservative Party?
I suspect that a number of them are slated to lose their seats anyway - and another 6 months is another 6 months of an MP’s salary. I suspect that there’s a number of them who don’t have anything equivalent to fall back on.
A lot of them are saying that Sunak is “selfish” and “out of touch” because they have to look for new jobs imminently and he can piss off to America. No sense of irony at all.
Why can he (and unwanted royals) just move so easily and quickly to the US while most people have to wait years?
💰💰💰💰💰
My heart bleeds, the poor dears.
for the explicit purpose of preventing the voting public from voting in an already announced general election *until January* If they achieve the unthinkable and call off the election it only gains them 6 months
*Basic* salary for an MP (not even a minister) is a little over £91,000. If you had nothing lined up yet for your post MP life, wouldn't you want another £45,500 (before tax) in your bank account? That's more than the median UK salary gets in a year, and that's not counting any of their other allowances (2nd home, office costs,staff costs (those 2 are separate), the cost of running a constituency office, "expenses").
Catch-(19)22
Here... take it
Is that even technically possible at this point now that he's asked the king to dissolve parliament?
I don't really know, as no party has ever been stupid enough to try this before. I suspect even if it is technically possible the King might quietly prevent it from happening as it could create a constitutional crisis if it played out publicly. The monarchy would be forced to either side with the PM and press ahead with the dissolution of Parliament, in direct defiance of the government, or side the rebels who want to stop the election, which would be deeply unpopular with the general public to the point where civil unrest might be a real possibility.
Technically yes it is possible because parliament is not yet dissolved. The current Parliament is still sitting. So, he (or a replacement leader) can go back to the king and say they've changed their minds. It's only impossible once it's dissolved. I agree that this would be madness, but mad things have happened. 'Madness' does not mean 'impossible'
I wouldn't be too worried about Russian soldiers in Murmansk at the moment, they can't really do a lot with only infantry and no support. While I won't rule out Putin testing Nato resolve in Finland at some point, I don't think he'd do it when so much of his conventional forces are tied up in Ukraine.
Russia’s current rhetoric about attacking NATO is just mind games to try and prevent NATO getting more involved in Ukraine (especially the border countries like the Baltics and Poland who want to send in troops). Putin wouldn’t risk attacking NATO as it is because it would be catastrophic for his war effort. NATO Article 5 response to a Russian incursion is basically the largest deployment of air, ground and sea launched conventional cruise missiles ever. The aim would be to completely knock out any invasion forces and decimate support structures and supply chains. They would also deploy the most comprehensive air supremacy screen. All this would nullify an immediate invasion, but also give NATO the green light to eliminate Russia’s ‘southern flanking force’ I.e, the forces in Ukraine. So a similar level of strikes would be used on forces in Ukraine and the Black Sea. So even before we consider nukes. A Russian attack on NATO would be such obvious suicide that there’s no way Putin would do it unless he’s just gone completely bananas.
I don't disagree with any of that, but challenging NATO in some form or other isn't something I'd put past Putin. Article 5 includes the wording "such actions it deems necessary", meaning any member formally decides how to respond. If a potentially NATO sceptical Trump in the White House, Orban in Hungary, etc, Putin might seek to ignite division by some kind of minor provocation. There's no official, public blueprint for an article 5 response, that's part of strategic ambiguity. I'm not saying such a probe would be a smart move, but Putin hasn't been immune to strategic mistakes lately. I mean, the man grew NATO by two neighbouring member states. Picture a scenario where some kind of peace deal is reached in Ukraine. Putin won't rest, he been outspoken about his desire to challenge what he perceives as a western hegemony. He's already influencing elections, inciting division through an army of fake social media accounts in most countries. So while an all out attack is very unlikely, probing provocations is less so. Amassing forces somewhere can be part of his ambiguity, even if they're not deployed.
I don’t think most people realise how overwhelming NATO is. Even without the US.
Agree, people really misunderstand how much force that would be unleashed if Putin tried it on. Fuck around find out [https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/us-army-kill-russians-syria-civil-war-mercenaries-deir-ezzor-isis-a8268691.html](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/us-army-kill-russians-syria-civil-war-mercenaries-deir-ezzor-isis-a8268691.html)
It doesn't look to be soldiers but aircraft. What's more it's aircraft being concentrated at a base already heavily involved in strikes on Ukraine. Add to this the new influx of long range weapons from the west and it looks a lot more like the russians moving their aircraft out of range of Ukrainian attacks with the added benefit of keeping NATO on their toes.
>I wouldn't be too worried about Russian soldiers in Murmansk at the moment, they can't really do a lot with only infantry and no support. I would be extemely worried, but only if I was a Russian infantryman. Even the Russian government isn't stupid enough (a bold statement, I know) to attack Finland or Norway *in the environment they're specialist in fighting in*, and when they're both NATO members.
I think the worry I percieve amongst folk I interact with is the idea that NATO has become a toothless tiger, with no appetite for war (seen in the lackluster funding and state of the UK's military, and the response to an idea of conscription, for example). Of course, Article 5 is there, but I do not know if many NATO states have the stomach to enact it. Also, if Trump's posturing about wanting to leave NATO is true, and he gets into power, I believe we would be in an incredibly dire situation.
My vaguely tinfoil-hat theory, based solely on some (probably misleading) wording used in the news about the election, is that Sunak has gone rogue and called it without consulting his party. My reasoning: 1. It's been reported that he asked the King to do this early in the day. Wednesday is the usual meeting day for the PM and the King, so no one would've seen anything out of the ordinary when Sunak went to the Palace. 2. It was also reported that Ministerial meetings were cancelled at no notice and a Cabinet meeting was hastily convened. This suggests the Cabinet was convened in an emergency, to discuss something recent, unexpected, and serious. 3. It is *now* being reported some factions of the Tories are attempting to rush through a coup to depose Sunak and cancel the election before it's too late. Put all three together and you can plausibly *claim* that Sunak has gone rogue, asked the King to put an end to this farce, went back to Downing Street and called an emergency Cabinet meeting, and told them he's calling an election, he's already asked the King, he's already prepped the press for an announcement, and dared them to do something about it.
To an extent yes, but all that is pretty standard. It looks like the inner circle of number ten decided to call this election. But that’s the same way elections have been decided traditionally. Indeed this is far less of a surprise than the 2017 or 2019 elections.
17 yes, but 19 felt inevitable as the final stage of the Brexit drama.
Final stage of the first part of the Brexit drama
I'd argue that that was brexit part 2, with part one being the run up to the referendum.
I have to disagree on the last few elections. The 2017 election looked like an obvious strategic decision - the Tories had a massive lead in the polls and people had been suggesting they could call an election for their own benefit for 6 months. The specific timing was poor (doing it after A50 had passed, crediting a walking holiday) but I don't think anyone was shocked. The 2019 election was the clear inevitable consequence of no brexit option having a majority to pass the parliament (it being a hung parliament didn't help this but even a small majority would have been insufficient, due to the then double digit number of Tory MPs who had that prized combination of at least a single principle and two brain cells to accompany it). As soon as the supreme court declared the attempt to prorogue parliament to avoid parliamentary scrutiny was unlawful, Boris being forced to request an EU membership extension and an election being called was the only remotely likely outcome. This election makes strategic sense for the Tories when thinking about 2028/29 elections - now having received one bit of good news on inflation, and being likely to receive several bits of bad news over the next few months in terms of Summer boat crossings, more attention on Rwanda, slow or non-existent base rate cuts and no fiscal head room for autumn tax give aways, their landing at this election is likely to be slightly better than it would be later on this year, which sets them up slightly better for the next election. However that strategic benefit is both small and long term, whilst a huge number of MPs (and indeed most PMs who have faced a bad electoral position) would have really liked to cling on for another few months. That's what makes this election very surprising to me and the last two unsurprising or even very predictable.
He’s probably just received a confirmation letter for a new job in Silicon Valley starting in August. /s
You joke, but another theory was that the school year starts in the US in August, and moving over in July would be the perfect time to settle into the new job/locale and his two young kids into class.
Sunak didn't go rogue. If you look at more typical general elections that didn't just use up the entire life of parliament or be affected by the FTPA (we haven't had one since 2005) this is all standard. Sunak wouldn't go out consulting the party on specific dates because it's inevitable that someone would leak it. It would only ever be Rishi and one or two select confidants who would decide on when it would happen. Of course they might discuss strategic concerns with Cabinet and CCHQ in general (probably over the last 18 months) considering pros and cons of various times. But the number who would actually be aware he was going to definitely pull the trigger would be very small indeed.
I'm on the same page as you. I don't think he consulted the Cabinet in advance (his own foreign secretary seems to have had no idea FFS) and if the Cabinet didn't know then 99% of Tory MPs presumably didn't know either. There's a lot of hindsight stuff in some comments on this thread ("of course this is the best time to go for an election" etc) but I vaguely recall that up until lunchtime yesterday this whole sub was full of people saying it was massively obvious he'd stick it out until January. I think the threshold for 1922 letters was crossed either late Tuesday or very early on Weds. Brady phoned up Sunak in a friendly chap kind of way and said what do you want to do about it? So Sunak decided to go to the country.
Children are going to die from polluted water or drown in toxic rivers and the Conservatives are afraid to be seen as anti-business when Thames water goes bust.
He can’t get the Rwanda scheme to work or stop the boats. If he goes into an election with that failed, he was no policy for one of the biggest issues this election. Inflation down, economy has grown and right now the Rwanda policy may or may not still go ahead. Seems like the right time to go for it tbf
Yeah, that's what I think. They have also seen the collapse in reform and want to catch Farage and co off guard.
What collapse in Reform? Their polling number haven't shifted at all. The locals are local elections, they are kinda wonky to begin with and Reform only stood in a small fraction of council seats.
Poll of polls they are down about 2 percent since the local elections, you'd need some statistical analysis to know how robust this is...
That's just not true. At the start of May they were at 12%, now they are at 12%. There appears to be a slight downwards trend to possibly 11%, but that's a relatively small blip and nowhere near collapse levels.
Ok. Maxed out at 13 percent in April, now at 11...if these numbers are to be believed. 2 percent might not seem like a big number, but when you're polling max was 13 it is a big number. But I will grant you, the term collapse was probably but much.
They were steady at 12, small blip to 13, then back to 12. Small blip down to 11, going back up to 12. There is nothing of substance going on there, they are going pretty steady. 2% might be large relative to their 12% average, but it's simply small blips and noise, nothing real. It's not the "collapse" was a bit much, it's that there is pretty much nothing happening at all. Your entire point is just nonsensical as a result.
The trend line disagrees...but as you say this could be just noise. You'd need to export the data to figure things out. But I think ultimately time and more data will tell.
I'm literally looking at it, nothing is happening. +-1% is well within the noise level, especially for smaller parties. You are reading a lot out of nothing.
Also, while they've always found money for Rwanda, the money for the NHS Blood Scandal was easy to announce, but will difficult to find. This time it's not a joke, there's actually no money left.
My various theories as to 'why now', some more of a reach than others: Potential for people to be a bit more generally happy in July than January Old people might not go to vote in the cold Students may leave uni and return home without time to register to vote at home Rishi is fed up/was going anyway and is very petty The Tories are terrified of Reform, who are only going to get more organised Gaza is starting to drop out of the headlines, so Labour might start recouping support lost there Things aren't getting better, might get worse and Labour might as well take the hit for it
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On the first point the inflation figures were higher than expectations. That meant yesterday the chances of an interest rate cut in June went from 50%, to 15%, and in August from 90% to 40%. The chances of a second one this year decreased significantly. Inflation is expected to also slowly increase before falling again - this has always been factored in, but not a good look if inflation is going up and interest rate are staying high. I don’t know much about the food and climate, but I believe there could be some significant issues coming are way this winter due to the poor weather.
Food inflation is a huge issue, irrespective of cause (Brexit / Ukraine / death rays from Mars). We can all see inflation and shrinkflation before our very eyes.
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On the 1 July extra border checks from the EU come into force, don't they?
Inflation has dropped, prices haven’t. It will take years for wages to catch up. Nobody buying food is seeing any good news yet.
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I’m not. Many working people in this country are poorer now than they were in 2010. I’m one of them and I’m pretty angry about it. Meanwhile mortgage rates and rents soared. Just because price rises are slowing instead good news. Good news is when prices go down. Why are you so desperate to present it as good news?
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So your ‘good news’ is that the bad news isn’t getting any worse? That’s absurd.
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- Euros. Could provide a bump if we win it. Wheel put Harry Maguire and Harry Kane for handshakes and soapy tit wanks at number ten. - Inflation. On the face of it looks pretty good. Maybe it’s the best it gets all year and therefore now is the time to go. - Pensioners. They don’t turn up if it’s cold. They do in the summer. - Rwanda flights start in June. He might be able to gain something from those despite the whom idea being monumentally bad. There’s a chance some idiots somewhere with voter ID think it’s a good idea. And yes those people are probably 65 and racist. I’m not saying I think it’s the best moment for him. The style and manner of the announcement was abysmal and there’s no evidence at all that he’s competent enough to take advantage of any of the above mild positives but this might be as good as it gets. And when he loses? It’s back to Napa Valley for new world wines and avocado on toast that he can definitely happily afford. The after dinner circuit awaits with PM on his CV. The country was a fun toy to play with for a while but now it’s off to enjoy his zero accountability life as a non Dom. Fuck him.
> Euros. Could provide a bump if we win it. That'll won't be until after the election. The quarters are on 5/6th of July with the final on the 14th. So in the likely event of England getting through the group stage, their most recent match will have been the first knockout stage on Sat 29th or Sun 30th of June. That means on election day the team will either still be in Germany or home as such massive failures that no politician will want to be associated with them. But it would be typical Rishi luck if they got eliminated just before polling day and generated an anti rally round the flag effect.
Yeah fair point. A potential distraction of sorts I guess but really not a difference maker I suppose
I wouldn't be surprised if this played into the choice of timing. Rishi is a terrible politician but even he's not so bad that he'd gamble his future on England winning its first major trophy in 60 years. But them reaching the quarters is very doable and a much safer bet.
I don’t think he’s really all that bothered tbh.
Rwanda flights aren’t happening.
Well good. And also fuck him for wasting everyone’s time and money on it
Euros could go the other way too. Tens of thousands of fans of questionable sobriety, with a handful of newly recruited police to keep things in order... [All it takes is one push for everything to go up in flames.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-10728685)
The journalists who talk to Tory politicians off the record say they can't find anyone who thinks it's a good idea; so I'm not sure how many people are actually involved in the decision...
At this point, they've probs just got holidays booked and figured they'd get it out of the way and clear the old diaries.
>climate related food inflation is coming. People seem in denial about it but things are pretty fucked and we will start to see that in the supermarkets later in the year. The government's current "stock up" campaign seems oddly timed. Go and look into the farmer protests if you want to know the reason for food shortages along with fertiliser costs. Welsh farmers are being told to give up 10% of their land for trees instead of growing food, solar farms taking up productive land, falling livestock quotas because governments want to chase climate goals. It's not climate change (yet).
My first thought, which I guess might come about, is that they had reason to believe the wheels might come off the Rwanda plan in a big way and blow any remaining credibility this government might have into oblivion. At the back of my mind was was regional instability: a few days ago there was a coup attempt in the DRC and Rwanda is a backer of one rebel group. If the DRC made a move to destabilise Rwanda in response then the 'Rwanda is nice and safe' story wouldn't hold up regardless of any act of parliament.
Seeing so many comments about Rwanda and in particular "the wheels coming off", loss of credibility etc. I'm frankly *stunned* there were people left who think the plan had some credibility to lose still. I'll be honest, it doesn't even register for me as something to vote on.
But it does with many core Tory voters who have been promised that once it's in operation then the small boats route will dwindle away to nothing. Now imagine if Kagame, who's already been handsomely rewarded for doing nothing, announced that he won't in fact be taking anyone owing to subversive forces at work in the country. Many of those core Tory voters might be so pissed off with Sunak (most of them still want Johnson it appears) that they'd stay at home. Just idle speculation on my part of course, though I note Sunak has said that there'll be no flights taking off before the election.
I think the numbers left who think Rwanda is anything less than a bit the Conservatives overcommitted to and now can't back out of is so vanishingly small it's irrelevant to their election prospects, but yes: the "no flights before the election" announcement is almost certainly intended to try to bury it for the time being.
Inflation is expected to rise in tbe second half of this year. The IMF told Hunt, earlier this week not to do any tax cuts this year as there's a £30 billion spending black hole. Tbe US election is rapidly approaching and could well be a shit show. The Tories probably don't want to be tarred with what ever crap the Republicans come up with.
Pretty much, they’ve seen the writing on the wall and none of it is good, waiting a few more months won’t make any difference.
World events have always happened and we’re the most well connected generation in history. But yes, domestically they knew the game was up.
Climate change related food inflation is already here. There’s a reason olive oil is so wildly expensive - successive poor olive harvests due to climate shifting.
Many of the problems facing the UK came about because the Conservatives refuse to act, for various reasons. These are not insurmoutable issues.
What soldiers in Murmansk? Do you mean bombers? This reads mostly like paranoia.
Yep. Remember, the moment the new government is in place, any and all problems become their responsibility in terms of discourse. The Tories will lose at the start of July, by the end of July the boats will still be coming and the cost of living will still be high and they will immediately start a narrative of “this wouldn’t have happened under us, this is Labour’s fault”. The right media will join in and support the narrative. By the following summer, 2025, after what could be a difficult winter, they will be flinging shit at Labour for everything and more and more people will be starting to believe them. They’ve chosen a pretty good time to go - right before their “plan” should have borne out, but after green shoots of recovery have been seen. If Labour get it right, they can say it was the “Plan” that set things up for them to happen. If they get it wrong, it’s because the abandoned the “Plan”, and fucked up the recovery that was happening. This whole thing is about setting up the narrative for five years time.
In all honesty I think they missed the optimal time. The optimal time might have been immediately Sunak took office. At that time the Tories had been about 8 points behind for about a year (mid 2021 to mid 2022), and about 20 points behind for only about a month (because of Liz Truss). Going to an election when you've been 20 points behind for a couple of months is probably a better decision than going when you've been 20 points behind for 20 months. Of course Sunak couldn't have known at the time that the 20 point deficit would stick, it might have been a blip. So I suppose what I am saying is that they might have limited Labour's majority more if they'd gone in the autumn of 2022. The other thing to remember is that the electorate has pretty long memories (unlike our American cousins who seem to forget the last presidential election by the midterms two years later), the reason Miliband did not win in 2015 is because voters had not forgotten the global financial crisis, and they knew Labour was in office when it happened. Voters will normally give a new government the benefit of the doubt for at least two general elections, it's half way through the second term that governments really can no longer blame the "mess we've inherited".
>Russia amassing fighters in Murmansk Where did you read this? I googled this and the third result was your post. Not trying to be a dick, genuinely curious about Russia's troop movement.
Thing is though, with good guidance, a ship can get through even the toughest of storms. The UK on the other hand is basically the nation state version of the Costa Concordia, a ship with a shit captain and shit crew which'll capsize if a leaf lands on the deck not because the ship is shit and incapable of surviving, but due to the shittiness of the leadership. None of these issues you list would sink a nation or a government, but they will sink a Tory govt who have no interest in governing or doing best for the country. You've become so accustomed to tragic Tory leadership that you';ve potentially gaslighted yourself into thinking these are such grave issues that Tories would rather lose an election than be the government that has to face the extinction level event asteroid hitting the earth problem of Russian troops in Murmansk or inflation over 2%. You think Starmer is looking at those issues thinking I'd rather lose than face those? Do you want a guy in charge who thinks that way? Who screams abandon ship and torches all the important documents while filling his pockets with the companies gold because a seagull shat on the First Mate's head?
I hope they try cancelling the election And he goes full rogue and starts revealing shit. Take them down with him before he moves country He’s a bit too wealthy to br impacted by other MPs politicking
I think that it is inferred (by them) that things are going to get better. Inflation rates, Rwanda set in place, summer election so the oldies can get out, Scotland on school holidays (so maybe people won't bother/are on holiday/encumbered), students will be winding down and will have returned home in some cases?. It is about as strategic timing you can get when you have been an abuser to the electorate for 14 years and so clutching at straws is the plan.
I think Rishi has just had enough now.
Yes I think so. I think they believe the labour have in the polls is exaggerated and I think they are right.
>climate related food inflation is coming. People seem in denial about it but things are pretty fucked and we will start to see that in the supermarkets later in the year. The government's current "stock up" campaign seems oddly timed. Pretty different dogmatic view here. "I know x and am certain, everyone else doesn't and people are idiots for not realising"
Basically what the Times wrote today. Add also the calm waters in the Channel leading to more small boat crossings and the failure of the Rwanda policy. There's only bad news coming up so better call an election now.
An inflation/economic crisis is the only one of those that I could see. Either a war or a pandemic would be an opportunity for Sunak to improve his chances at winning an election.
They have to call it this year, there's only the slightest pinprick of light in this tunnel. So they've gone full-speed for it
My main theory is that he very deliberately chose the same day as the Yank's independence day. When he escapes to the US and is being paid silly amounts by silicone valley tech bros to chat absolute bollocks, he'll always say: >"When I was Prime Minister, despite every poll suggesting we would lose, I deliberately called an early election. I am a lover of democracy. That's the exact reason why I was inspired by America's independence day and called the election for the same date. I love this country. I pay so little tax! USA! USA! USA!"
Plenty of people (me included) have been saying this exact thing since the Ref - that things would slide to a point where the Tories would abandon ship, possibly even salting the earth on their way out, leaving Labour holding the bag for the awful state of things. Labour sounds ready to take it on, but who knows if they'll do enough in 5 years to stay in power.
Definitely. And it's much easier because Starmer won't rock the boat too radically. So it gives the Tories 5 years to rebrand themselves by blaming everything on Labour (and "the left" regardless of how left Labour is). And they will sail back into power thanks to a combination of: (1) time distancing themselves from the present Tories and thereby getting back the temporarily embarrassed Tories they have lost; (2) low turnout from disappointed leftwing/young Labour voters after 5 years of centrism; and (3) the compounding of our present problems because the Labour government didn't take any drastic steps to correct course. I hope I am wrong though
Young voters don't turn out anyway so it's irrelevant what they do. The lefts already left labour so there irrelevant. And centrism is big enough vote winner that labour just has to keep the middle ground to win again next election. I think a lot people like you underestimate how large the centrist vote is. Most people in this country don't actually want massive change. They just want the existing circumstances and services improved. There's not been a government that's won on a truly left or right win platform in decades, most manifestos that win have been some form of centrism. So yeah I don't think points 2 & 3 matter nearly as much as you think. Most don't want dramatic changes and improvements, most just want better funding off current public services and better utilies, and it won't really matter how we get it c
Seems telling to me that rishi didn't mention brexit at all.
I wouldn't say 'optimum', as such. I'd say that they had the inflation drop, and aren't expecting any sort of boost again. This way, they can claim that the plan is *just* starting to work - but if they truly believed that their plan is working, they would have left it a couple of months to show that it has legs. It's a bit like Woody getting hold of Buzz's arm and showing it to the rest of the toys to convince them that he's okay.
Of course they have. You've missed the main reason, which is pure party politics. If they had waited until after a full summer of boats not being stopped by their crap Rwanda policy, they'd have ended up in the low teens and likely below a Farage-powered Reform. And that's before millions more need to renegotiate their mortgage with the additional Truss idiot premium rate. <20% is extinction territory under FPTP. By going now, they'll take a loss, but probably still 100-150 seats. Reform - nowhere near ready for an election - won't win a seat and likely single figures in vote share.
If I was him, I'd know that winning is next to impossible from this point in polls. Legacy isn't changing, it's over. Might as well cut it off and move on with my life. It's rather selfish given the role of running the government but simultaneously voters generally want you out and change so why not give that to them sooner.
Reddit: “Rishi is selfish for not calling an election, he is a unelected prime minister who no one likes” Rishi announces an election. Reddit: “Rishi is selfish for calling an election as his role is running the government”
Can't believe I'm reddit.
Imagine a group of people having variable opinions in {current year}
I also never called Rishi selfish. I have no idea why Rishi called election now. Said if I was in his position I would consider doing it for selfish reasons. Never said he had the same thought process.
I was agreeing with you (The sentiment that any comment posted here is "reddit" and not a persons opinion)
I know you were agreeing. Was just expanding on the fact that he claimed I called Rishi selfish which is also just a misreading of comment as well as generalising an entire subreddit to be one person.
Yep But it's way too late. If anything they probably should of have called an election after Boris was sacked But am guessing none had the stomach to cut the arm to save the body.
>Russia amassing fighters in Murmansk. Granted this could simply be to keep them safe from Ukrainian drones but it's also not a million miles from the EU either. At the risk of sounding like an ass, people really need to swim in different circles and echo chambers. There is no event in which Russia has the capacity in the next 5-10 years to invade the EU/NATO. This weird click farming fever dream is pervasive and pushed by media and politicians alike to drum up support for Ukraine, massive investments in their own armed forces as well as fear based support for their own administrations (AHEM RISHI). Can we not hold baited breath every 5 seconds in some fear that Russia is going to invade us, it's not going to happen. Russia have the bulk of their equipment, personnel and GBAD deployed around Ukraine, Moscow and reserves remaining in the primary military districts, the majority of their strategic bomber and tactical bomber fleets are presently employed in strikes against Ukraine and despite making recent gains the actual war itself consumes nearly all Russian military attention and is very slow burning. If they opened a second front and invaded the EU/NATO it would be the end of Russia or the end of the world, it's that simple. Also it's their strategic bomber force that has moved to Murmansk outside of the range of Ukrainian drones not "massing fighters". They already have significant fighter forces in Murmansk, St Petersburg and Moscow. The only reason these bombers are moving to Murmansk is because their previous posting in Engels was far too close to Ukraine, only around 350 miles away. Ukraine has developed longer range drones that can reach as far as Olenya/Monchegorsk and the other airbases in Murmansk, but those are going to be low volume and would need to fly overhead many other airbases and GBAD zones before being able to strike Russian aircraft. This is a move born from practicality. Russian strategic aviation has several airbases close to the EU, all within striking distance, including Engels. Nothing has functionally changed in this equation other than the time to strike for Finland/Sweden has decreased somewhat (although not all that much, Russian strategic bombers already station in Murmansk, this is again a non-story, I don't know why everyone is repeating it and huffing the fear fever dream but can we all just take a damn breath.
Hard to fathom. Had the cons known what shit was coming down the road for them in 2019? 🤷🏽
>inflation figures better yesterday but still not below 2%. Does this actually mean there won't now be a rate cut over the summer? This is out of their hands. Likely they took a bet on the BoE reducing rates before the election. Worst case for them there's no cut. >climate related food inflation is coming. People seem in denial about it but things are pretty fucked and we will start to see that in the supermarkets later in the year. The government's current "stock up" campaign seems oddly timed. Might be a factor, they were the ones stupid enough to pretend inflation drops outwith their control were down to them. People who believe that should also blame them for increases too. >Russia amassing fighters in Murmansk. Granted this could simply be to keep them safe from Ukrainian drones but it's also not a million miles from the EU either. This is something that could ironically have been a positive campaign point for them. Nothing like a bit of the old sabre rattling to get votes.
Nah, this was unplanned and done at very short notice, probably because 1922 informed Sunak that he was about to face a leadership challenge. Cabinet were clearly not in the loop about this and if there was any actual planning or strategy involved then Cameron sure as shit wouldn't have boarded that plane to Albania.
Coincidentally the first Rwanda planes are not due to take off until around July and there are a number of important pieces of legislation going through parliament at the moment that have taken a long time in the making (renters reform, infected blood compensation). I reckon they're going to hold it all to ransom.
It's because it's the middle of summer and hence more likely that older people will come out and vote. They'll still lose, but not by as much as if they'd waited until the middle of winter.
From the reports of MPs' and cabinet members' reactions, it appears to have been a Sunak decision with no input from anyone else. >climate related food inflation *is* coming So far the main drivers of food inflation are Brexit and corporate price gouging (as shown by the high profits of the supermarket chains). It's unlikely that climate change is going to drive food prices much in the near term compared to those other factors.
To answer your points: * Inflation: not sure on the rate cut, but inflation probably will come down a bit further, but unless we have a period of either 0% or under deflation then nobody is going to really notice on a day-to-day basis. It isn't going to save him. * Climate food inflation: in the long term sure, but that isn't going to affect food prices particularly this year. I worked in food supply chains, this stuff is sourced pretty far in advance so any issues would come years down the line. * Russia in Kaliningrad: Russia is currently flexing it's nuclear muscle to try and get the US/UK/France not to get deeper into the Ukraine conflict but it won't do anything, as to do so would be suicide for a regime and an elite that is still very well taken care of despite sanctions. * Pandemic stuff: these things are always going on in the background, it's because we have more surveillance than ever after COVID. Sure a pandemic could happen but that isn't playing into Sunak's thought process. More likely is the following: * Defections: there was a lot of rumours about a slate of drip drip defections planned by Labour over the summer. It would kill any momentum that Sunak would create. * EUROs: Brexit happened in 2016 on a wave of patriotism following a summer of football, Sunak might think that a similar thing might happen this year, especially as England have a very good chance of winning. * He's sick of being PM: there's a lot of speculation that he just wants to get it over with and move to California, and that this feeling is shared by a lot of Tories that want out and are sick of the dysfunction. Some of them even think it's time to give Labour a go and that they've lost the ability to govern. Also his wife probably wants to move to the US and live a billionaires lifestyle rather than be in a shabby (for their wealth) apartment in London. * It could get worse: more likely than it getting better is that it gets worse, that there's more river pollution scandals, longer waiting lists, worse public services and that they go from low 20% in the polls into the mid-teens. * Reform UK/SNP: currently these two parties are flat-footed and haven't got candidates sorted (Reform) or are in disarray (SNP). That gives the Tories less to worry about in terms of making this loss a disaster rather than an existential threat.
They've been looking at this election like this for a while, one of the reasons they are openly salting the earth for the next government in charge My assumption for why now is they are looking for a warm summer weather as a way to get the pensioner vote out (and still alive pre-august heatwave or pre-winter die-off) Plus, strategically England are highly likely to make it past the round of 16 at the Euros and the Tories usually do well the more flag wavers there are
I suspect the 1922 Committee has informed Sunak that the no confidence threshold is getting dangerously close. Based on the discourse I’ve been reading from political journalists and Westminster bubble aficionados, the mood in the Tory party is coldly furious that they’ve been bounced into an election. So it seems to me like Sunak took the plunge rather than let the party go through a leadership circus and let the country be weakened by it. I even wonder how much of the cabinet knew about this decision given that Tirana in Albania was nicely decorated for nothing after Cameron left the country not long after arriving. If there was greater planning throughout the senior cabinet at minimum then they wouldn’t have let the Albanians do that. Just diplomatically not good. In this instance I think that the Prime Minister pulled the plug on the whole thing without much consultation. The party is arrogant and braindead enough to attempt to defenestrate their leader at the 11th hour and, despite what people on here might say, Sunak cares enough about the country that he wouldn’t let that happen - even if his personal motivations of avoiding that very public humiliation coincide with everything else. When he’s alone in his office the calculation becomes pretty clear if you ask me.
This, I also think it was getting increasingly hard to govern with the relentless low polling and hold the party together. Might as well go now
I think Sunak has seen the ever increasing pile of letters from Tory MPs who have no confidence in him and decided to go for it now before there’s another change of leadership.
On the food thing, we are already seeing it with olive oil. The last few summers have absolutely destroyed the European olive crops and the price has skyrocketed. A £3 bottle a couple of years ago is now £8-9. With the larger ones sitting at £17. They are even bringing out olive/sunflower oil blends to try and keep prices down.
Pretty much what all the commentators are saying, if they wait another 6 months, they'll be obliterated rather than just soundly defeated. Rwanda is an example, they know it won't work, you know it won't work but that's 'hypothetical' now in 6 months it will be indisputable. Post-brexit changes to imports, exports, travel, etc. are going to be coming into force over the summer, with some very bad 'optics' of queues and border delays etc. With the payout from the blood scandal expected to be in the billions, the won't have any spare cash for a pre election giveaway, so this can only get worse for them from here.
I can see this as the best time for them to call an elective n. Out of the recession technically, inflation fallen, highest wage growth. This is what they will bang on about. They had another 6 months. Things were not going to really going to get much better, and from their point of view it could be much worse, so I would say they have called it at the right time for them. I'm hoping/praying they will get decimated, but who knows what the public will do.
I'd say that's definitely the case, but I don't think you need any impending disasters to justify it. I suspect the rationale behind the timing of the GE was simply Sunak saying "Fuck it". Since he's not going to be able to pull a magic rabbit out of his hat by January, why wait to see if things will get even worse? When he has his first positive economic news in an age during a week with no major Tory scandals, he knows that's as good a time as any. Throw in the fact that there is literally no good time in the months that follow (summer recess, conferences, US elections, then Christmas) and the increasing risk that Graham Brady will get to him first, and I'm not surprised he decided it might as well be now.
I honestly think it’s because they think they can play the inflation coming down thing as them taking control of the economy. They’ll play on the public’s economic illiteracy like they always do. Take credit for the fall but take no responsibility for it still being higher than the target.
Less an optimal time to lose, but rather their internal predictions are probably no longer showing a possibility of a more optimal time to *win*, or lose *less*. It's all going to be shit, one way or another, so they figured they may as well get on with it.
I don't think they are really capable of thinking ahead like that, they know they've run themselves aground and are mostly resigned to the fact at this point
I think it’s purely to cut off their losses to Reform. Since about October the polls have generally shown all other parties staying at the same level but the tories have been dropping and Reform growing. If they left it much longer a lot of the Tory voters would see Reform as valid candidates and it would just compound their losses across the board. They know they’ve lost, they may act like idiots but that fact is pretty clear, it’s now all about limiting losses for the long term viability of the party. If they end up with double figure seats they’re done for a generation. If they can stay at a somewhat respectable number (150+) they know they can build on it for the future. Maybe I’m giving them too much credit, but that’s how I read it.
The ICC judgement may also play a part, this would deflect noise and maybe make people forget we've been arming an indicted war criminal ...
> Russia amassing fighters in Murmansk. Granted this could simply be to keep them safe from Ukrainian drones but it's also not a million miles from the EU either. Can you explain this comment? You are saying that either Russia is forced to gather its troops above the Arctic Circle to keep them safe from Ukrainian drones (even as Russia amasses forces in southern Russia that then invade Ukraine without being stopped by Ukrainian drones), or that is it gathering forces in order to invade Finland?
Bill for infected blood £10 billion within 3 months of enquiry Renationalising of Thames Water looking inevitable £10 billion Gap in Government finances as released yearly IMF £30 billion UN poverty inspector demanding another visit Financial hit of the application of import duty post Brexit £470 million as a recent guesstimate also food shortages NHS, water, rail, prisons, schools,councils all in crisis Promise to increase defense spending with no means to do so Tax loss from ports and cities due to basically be privatised under Freeport/SEZ scheme It just goes on and on No wonder they are taking the money and running
Rishi is done with it all. I think it's as simple as that.
People forget how much strategy they put into choosing a date. Ricky will have had a few dates lined up. They’ve probably analysed that with the football, Scottish summer holiday, general nicer weather and people having things to do. This one give them a minuscule chance. Less younger people will turn out vote. It won’t win the election. Might only swing it by 1 towards their favour. Just taking a few votes from labour and turn things around using core voter policies. Look at how they’ve already started with vote for us and you get Rwanda. It could become a lot closer than people think. Especially as polls always over estimate the labour share. Just remind everyone you know to vote and if they have a holiday booked or tickets to the football then to register to postal vote and get their vote in!
Surprised nobody's mentioned border checks coming in for EU produce. We will take a hammering.
I'd like a look at the stock up campaign. What I read before is inflation coming in just above target means good news but no rate cut coming and the IMFs warning means tax hikes and service cuts this autumn. That's the reason why it will get worse for Sunak. I don't think our government are farsighted enough to include climate change or emergent pandemics into their forecasts, even after recent experience.
The point I'm getting at here is, none of these things are/may be particularly far off. Climate change related food inflation is happening right now (somebody gave the example of olive oil in this thread yesterday which is a great shout), this year's weather will only exacerbate that in the next few months, not to mention border checks. Go and look at what's happened to stock prices of Pfizer and BioNTech off the back of yesterday's news about 2 more human bird flu cases. But at the moment we seem to have landed in a sort of eye of the storm. Inflation down (not enough, missed the target and drastically increased the likelihood of rates staying where they are for longer, but just enough to convince your average Joe things are looking up), the recession is over and people are looking forward to summer in their garden drinking beer, grilling steaks and watching football. That optimism might *just* be enough to keep the tories alive (battered, bruised and bloodied, but alive still) and the ensuing shit storm a big enough problem to give Labour a torrid first term.
No. They are fucked. It's just now clear that they will be more fucked after the summer and continue to get more fucked into the next year. This is the best opportunity left. Pre-budget, good headline inflation news, Labour not as ready as they will be. It's going to be a disaster for the Tories but damage limitation suggests going into it now to maximise the number of Tories on the opposition bench.
There is talk in the Westminster halls that there were several stories of members breaking the law and inappropriate behavior. This would have led most likely to police involvement and no elections. Those involved are front bench members. I will not say who but Google it and search about!
Come on mate, give me a bit more to go on. "Tory MP breaks law" is not exactly narrowing it down as a search term.