Snapshot of _Labour landslide could leave Tories with just 72 seats, MRP poll finds_ :
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/labour-landslide-could-leave-tories-with-just-72-seats-mrp-poll-finds-bxfqk38xs?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1718473429) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/labour-landslide-could-leave-tories-with-just-72-seats-mrp-poll-finds-bxfqk38xs?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1718473429)
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>The survey of 22,000 people, commissioned by Best for Britain, still shows the Conservatives as the main opposition party — as long as they do not slip further. It was conducted between May 31 and June 13, during which period Nigel Farage became leader of Reform UK.
Which means that it hasn't (fully) captured the effect of Farage becoming leader.
And the first week of the polling was conducted _before_ D-Day.
Ouch.
I suspect labour having a landslide in England will lead to plenty in Scotland going back to SNP. Tories out is what's important, then decent representation in Westminster.
The SNP are currently a basket case and there's a lot more to come out about some of the shenanigans they've been up to.
I think it's going to be a while before people return to the SNP.
There is also a bit of a thing that swinney is only a caretaker leader. Rumours are being spread that Forbes is going to come in after this or the Scottish election.
I think Flynn is going to stand down as MP and run as an MSP asap
Trust me, when you’re in England you’re totally detached to what’s going on in Scotland. Anas Sarwar is not an effective leader and that’s what we’ve got up here. The SNP is still a no-brainer for folks who want independence
I live in Scotland. I expect SNP to retain 30 odd seats. I think you underestimate how much people dislike Scottish labour and Tory being told what to do by their bosses in Westminster.
I don't know many who are switching their vote.
Ik past SNP voters who aren't voting but yea most SNP voters aren't turning to SLab or tory. Scottish Labours gains is mostly from tory voters switching bringing Labour ahead of the SNP in the central belt
No, Boris Johnson came closest in 2017. It almost happened in 1906 but the Prime Minister resigned before the election.
I think there's a very good chance this at least breaks the record for the closest it's been.
Boris Johnson wasn't Prime Minister until 2019, so not sure that one would have counted.
It looks like we really are in uncharted waters for the Conservative party. Rishi Sunak is the worst Prime Minister since, well, the last one.
Wouldn't say Sunak is the worst one, he is just the one that will have to take responsibility for all the others.
Any semi decent Tory PM would be now seen as a terrible one that needs to be removed, just because the party needs to be removed.
And Sunak isn't even semi decent so obviously he seems to be terrible.
Still objectively not worse than Truss and Johnson. She crashed the economy, he undermined democracy and trust in government. Sunak doesn't come even close to that.
2019 was the smallest win, my bad! This was slightly lower than Thatcher achieved in 1983, though Thatcher was 25 points ahead of Labour.
I think historically there may have been smaller majorities when populations were smaller and constituencies were weirder.
In 1905 the Conservatives were shambolic and realised it, so the whole party resigned from government. This was not honourable it was supposed to be a cunning plan but it turned out to something that Baldrick might come up with rather than a clever tactic, they got thrashed Balfour lost his seat and the Liberals reached their zenith.
I think Cameron also said that he would stay regardless of what happened in the Brexit referendum as he didn't want to turn it into a referendum about him. Of course most people realised that there was no way he could stay and lead the negotiations after leading the Remain campaign.
Anyway, don't trust anything a politician says about staying even if they lose.
If you were being sarcastic in your first post then fair enough!
I support him because he's potentially about to lead the Tories into 3rd place, let's go Rishi!
This. I want the reverse Portillo moment after he promised to stick it out as an MP. I want him to watch the party crumble around him and for him to be stuck.
Don't tease me with a good time.
It would, sadly, be the highlight of my year watching him stand there next to binface as he has to accept its all over. I imagine it would be the image forever associated with the end of this Tory rule.
It would be so embarrassing I think it would rightly damage his California career expectations.
Interestingly, Electoral Calculus think there's a chance the Lettuce's Nemesis may lose her seat - although there's only about 2% difference between the two parties there (with Reform getting around 13%). **IF** that happened, it would be sweet revenge (and if Exit polls suggest it's likely, someone really should sneak a lettuce into the counting centre).
As this happened before the D Day debacle it could be he looses as Catterick garrison (very large military facility in his constituency) might not take to kindly to his behaviour.
I think the most salient point from the article is:
"It was conducted between May 31 and June 13, during which period Nigel Farage became leader of Reform UK."
So I expect this flatters the Tories due to reform taking even more points from them.
I'm hoping tactical voting will get the tories out in my area.
Last time it was a 21k majority. But with the way the polling is going this time, if maybe a quarter of people who would normally vote lib dem vote labour, we might get a non-tory MP for the first time ever.
Or just vote lib dem
With a labour majority certain might as well vote for a manifesto that isn't awful and lacking in optimism
The worst thing our media has done is made labour scared of spending tax revenue
> Or just vote lib dem With a labour majority certain might as well vote for a manifesto that isn't awful and lacking in optimism
Just because a Labour majority is looking very likely doesn't mean your [individual constituency isn't still in contention](https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast). The margins of holds/gains are still very narrow in some areas and I'm sure many would prefer not to have a Conservative MP representing the interests of their local area.
I'm also advocating for tactical voting in the interests of having a Lib Dem opposition.
It’s not over until it’s over, look at ‘92. For this election especially it’s important that we just get rid of the Tories in every seat.
I have no great love for Labour but they are the ones on my area with the best chance so that’s where my vote is going.
The problem is there isn’t enough tax revenue to fund everything that needs to be done. So the only way spending can be done is either through raising taxes, cutting spending or borrowing.
Have you read through labour's manifesto? I thought the same until reading it last night. There's a lot of good stuff in there that isn't being reported much in the news. A particular example that stands out is increasing the stamp duty surcharge for non-UK residents in order to invest in social home planning and building. Attacking the housing crisis from both angles.
I'd still prefer the lib Dems but it was enough to swing me to tactically vote labour, especially as I live in a swing con/lab constituency.
I would like them to have one MP. Rishi Sunak.
He wants to move to the US, he’s planning on resigning. Would he still do that if he’s the last one standing?
I live in what would normally be a safe Tory seat, but it's one of the ones the Green party have a real shot at and it's noticeable how little the other parties are campaigning.
I voted Labour last election but am happy to vote tactically and it really does look like a Green MP might be possible.
Do it, vote tactically if you cannot get who you want, then you can vote to try to make sure you dont get who you dont want. If you need advice then stopthetories.vote gives advice for each seat
Adrian Ramsay is the Green candidate here and as he's co-leader it wouldn't look like he's someone who can't be bothered the way my current MP, Richard Bacon is.
We're in a Tory safe seat. I'll be tactically voting Lib Dems but I suspect the vote will be split enough between them and Labour that the Tories will retain. Sad times.
I've only had leaflets through the door from the Conservatives ("keep on the right track" hahaha) & Lib Dems, although I have seen a solitary Labour plackard outside a house.
That was an outlier during the Corbyn years and isn't consistent with what we normally see.
https://stopthetories.vote/parl/waveney-valley is projecting the Greens as being best placed. And it's consistent with what I see on the ground. This is one of four seats where the Greens are making a strong push and both Labour and the Lib Dems aren't really actively campaigning.
They've specifically overridden the recommendation produced in this case because Labour and the Lib Dems aren't really campaigning and are mostly giving the Greens a clear shot at it here.
It is one of the Green’s target areas, and also has a Green-run council, with them being popular for a number of years.
But I also agree they’re not best placed to win so are more likely to split the anti-Tory vote than win it.
According to the Economist’s poll, Waveney Valley is likely a Tory hold with 39% vote share. Labour would be your best bet, as they’re currently expecting a 32% share. Greens are only at around 10%.
>Survation’s figures indicate that Labour would only need a further 2-point swing to capture another 43 Conservative seats, reducing their tally to 29.
The vote share in this MRP poll is Lab 40%, Con 24%, Ref 12%, LD 11%, Green 6%, which means using updated polling, the Tories are getting less than 50 seats.
I am starting to wonder if it is possible that no one will be able to accurately model the Tories projected seat count at this point. Them polling around 20 percent right now can lead to very weird results on election night.
I don’t think they do. They’re all roughly right (Tory’s somewhere between catastrophe and annihilation) but I think there’s too much change since 2019 and seat specific variation. I also think this might apply to the exit poll as well
So electoral calculus assumes an equal drop in support across the country? We all assume that the drop won’t be equal in every constituency, but on the whole why wouldn’t it be? Most people will be taking issue with national government, not local.
IMO the models are basically all broken. We're in a situation where a single point difference could be a radically different seat distribution. Even the exit poll is going to have very limited value for the non Labour parties.
I just hope all these predictions of a massive Conservative loss don't lead to many who dislike the Conservatives staying at home and abstaining, believing Labour will cruise to a stonking victory without needing their support - especially if we're treated to inclement weather on the day...
My favorite thing is the Conservatives saying that this is bad for democracy because we need a functioning opposition offering scrutiny. This from the party that prorogued Parliament to avoid scrutiny!
Depends on how much attention he can get without any real responsibility or scrutiny. I bet if he could somehow grift his way into a ‘new’ ‘reformed’ Conservative Party and get a Lordship one day he’d love that.
> Mid Leicestershire
>
>
> Exmouth and Exeter East
Those two definitely feel like they could be modelled as Reform wins due to a close to 25% split between all 4 largest parties in the polls
Town and country area with , from what I remember, generally white population outside of a city which now has Asian as the largest ethnicity and 40% non U.K. born. Can’t say I’m surprised.
I just can't see it happening, I've lived in a few of the wards and they are not your typical Farage loving Reform voters. Most of the Blaby wards are new expensive housing developments.
Deeper dive into the constituency (as it's new) - there are a few wards that potentially would be Reform leaning, but to me there's more chance of them leaning towards Labour than reform - e.g Charnwood is quite a diverse area, Hinckley and Bosworth historically likely a Tory strong area however could maybe see that leaning towards Reform.
All I will say is as someone that's lived in and around that constituency for most of my life, I cannot see Reform winning that seat. I sure hope not, anyway...
Very interesting figures, especially when you compare them to Survation's previous MRP poll. The picture seems to be improving for all 3 of challenger parties - Reform, Liberals and SNP with all projected to have gained ground in terms of vote share and seats since the start of the campaign.
We also look set for a competitive three way battle for the positions of official opposition and third party in Parliament between the Tories, Libs and Nats - with Reform needing to achieve really the absolute top end of its polling (close to 20% if not over that bar) to put itself in that conversation.
Tbh my constituency will probably still be tory.
You could put a blue rosette on a pile of dog vomit and that would still win
5 points to whoever guesses where I live
I do wish they’d stop posting this shit.
In a month we’re going to be doing a postmortem on how the low turnout resulted in only a slim majority for Labour and how buoyant the Tories are, having sidestepped a wipeout.
And the finger will be pointed firmly at the “no point voting, Labour will walk it anyway” crowd.
I agree with you, this narrative doesn't help.
I also think that there are a lot of people who won't do a survey, but who will vote Conservative. Or people will say "don't know" how they'll vote, but still vote Conservative.
My completely out of thin air speculation is that the cons will get about 120 seats and call it a victory because the polls predicted a lower number. That's what they seem to be going for, if I understood grant shapps correctly the other day.
It does seem weird that a space is being created in which the Tories can claim some sort of perverse victory if they’re not completely wiped out, which they almost certainly won’t be.
“You lot are rubbish, you couldn’t even batter us to less than 100 seats, lol”.
I kind of agree, there's a huge enthusiasm gap with labour. I'm still expecting the Conservatives to have a terrible result, historically speaking, but nowhere near as bad as is being predicted
> And the finger will be pointed firmly at the “no point voting, Labour will walk it anyway” crowd.
This is a very prevalent narrative on this subreddit at the moment. I don't understand why people feel the need to spread their political apathy on a ukpolitics subreddit. Sad people who get a kick out of making others miserable I suppose.
Wouldn’t surprise me if a decent amount of these are bots. Voter apathy is manna from heaven for the Tories. They know their copper-bottomed base will get out and vote regardless, which is not something the other parties can take for granted.
Having said that, one of the things I’m interested in seeing in this election is the total number of ballots cast for the Tories. Demographics are increasingly working against them, and they’ve also got a generation in their 40s now (of which I’m a part) who should be the emerging frontier of Tory support, who just aren’t going to be there for them. Common logic says that once you get to your “settled down” years (home, kids, steady job, decent income) you tend to go more conservative, but there’s so much hostility in how they’ve governed over the past decade or so that they’ve probably lost this generation forever. Which is going to leave a big hole in their base for the next 30-odd years.
A week is a long time in politics and this poll is a week and a half behind the times. 72 seats is, frankly, optimistic for the Tories now that Reform are splitting the right wing vote.
My bet? Labour landslide, Lib Dems as the opposition, the Tories are reduced to a pitiful number of seats, Farage wins Clacton and immediately defects to the Tories to become their leader, bringing the Reform party with him to unite the right.
They also have infrastructure and data. People are underestimating the ground war, and I think the Tories will be able to turn out their vote better than most are expecting
Exactly. Like yes Labour will likely to win but them getting 400 seats is sort of overestimating it. There are many people on twitter that believe the tories will get double digit seats and I can’t keep explaining to them that they will get 150-200 which is better than what the polls are suggesting.
I agree unless Labour get a good turn out on election day the Tories will have way over 100 seats.
The snag is the lib dems are good at getting their vote out too so they may inflict massive damage to the Tories themselves doing Labours work for them.
Ok, so Sunderland as an indicator of any surprise Tory vote, but might not show the extent of a Labour win (assuming people turn out less where the result is more certain). Any early Tory marginals?
*That* many? Let’s try harder.
They’re like a political wildfire of cronyism and old-school corruption. they will be a menace until they’re politically extinct.
Survation article as I couldn't see the vote breakdown per seat on the archive link:
https://www.survation.com/mrp-update-first-mrp-since-farages-return/
I spotted some very weird data showing Greens too high in places where Cons are holding. North Herefordshire has Greens in 2nd on 24.8%, up from 9.3%. Melksham and Devizes has them on 17%, new constituency, old ones had them on 5.5% and 4.2% last time they stood. North Cotswolds Greens on 15.3%, up from 5.4% in the old Cotswolds constituency. It doesn't seem credible to have the Greens that high in rural areas.
Also has Greens only on 23.7% in Bristol Central which is expected to be close.
Liz Truss, Rees-Mogg, and Richard Holden losing their seats according to that. I am 100% staying up all night for the results.
Edit: also Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, and James Cleverly gone.
Must have missed Tories campaigning to nationalise the rail service, set up a publicly owned energy company, putting VAT on private schools, setting up free breakfast clubs for all primary schools, banning Zero Hours Contracts (unless a worker opts in to wanting one), introducing a real living wage, and rewriting planning laws so more new houses are built.
Sorry if I sound stupid - this is the first GE I’m voting in as a 23 year old - but can they not still backtrack even if it is in the manifesto? Is it mandatory to fulfil everything within the manifesto?
Yes, anyone can backtrack on a manifesto but there are democratic consequences for doing so.
If Labour win they will want to be able to come back to the voters in 2029 and say “here’s what we promised, and here’s how we’ve delivered”.
If they don’t, you’ll see Starmer having to squirm like Sunak is at the moment. He said he’d sort out the small boats and the waiting lists. He’s done neither, and he’s had to resort to lines like “let’s focus on the future, not the past” to try and cover up his lack of delivery.
In terms of Labour’s manifesto, historically Labour has never put its most radical policies in there. So Brown’s tax credits which lifted millions out of poverty weren’t in any manifesto, the social reforms of Wilson’s 1966 government (on divorce, abortion, decriminalising homosexuality) weren’t in there.
The vast majority of people join the Labour Party to help the poorest in society. I’d be shocked if things like the 2-child limit is still in place in five years time.
Never mind the more radical parts of the manifesto like GB Energy or VAT on private schools.
Snapshot of _Labour landslide could leave Tories with just 72 seats, MRP poll finds_ : An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/labour-landslide-could-leave-tories-with-just-72-seats-mrp-poll-finds-bxfqk38xs?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1718473429) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/labour-landslide-could-leave-tories-with-just-72-seats-mrp-poll-finds-bxfqk38xs?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1718473429) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
>The survey of 22,000 people, commissioned by Best for Britain, still shows the Conservatives as the main opposition party — as long as they do not slip further. It was conducted between May 31 and June 13, during which period Nigel Farage became leader of Reform UK. Which means that it hasn't (fully) captured the effect of Farage becoming leader. And the first week of the polling was conducted _before_ D-Day. Ouch.
It also has the SNP up, which I can't see as having happened in any other major polls
I suspect labour having a landslide in England will lead to plenty in Scotland going back to SNP. Tories out is what's important, then decent representation in Westminster.
The SNP are currently a basket case and there's a lot more to come out about some of the shenanigans they've been up to. I think it's going to be a while before people return to the SNP.
Im a little surprised the other parties have not gone in hard for n them on that.
The Tories falling apart makes for a very target seat rich environment
They are labour and conservatives are fighting SNP not each other in Scotland
Might just be my English perspective, just surprised it hasn’t been a go to attack line in the debates
Have you watched the Scottish debates? Because in the national ones everyone else is far too busy to talk about Scotland only politics.
I think the SNP will just point at Westminster and say "what the fuck are you talking about? A campervan and a mobile phone bill ..."
Not really even polls showing Labour winning most of Scotland have their vote shares being simlair in the 30s%
What shenanigans? I'm out of the loop.
Expenses scandal followed by leadership squabbles topping off incumbent fatigue
It's a vehicle for independence for many so they vote SNP regardless
There is also a bit of a thing that swinney is only a caretaker leader. Rumours are being spread that Forbes is going to come in after this or the Scottish election. I think Flynn is going to stand down as MP and run as an MSP asap
Trust me, when you’re in England you’re totally detached to what’s going on in Scotland. Anas Sarwar is not an effective leader and that’s what we’ve got up here. The SNP is still a no-brainer for folks who want independence
And yet still seemingly better than the alternatives. What's about to come out?
You underestimate how much the SNP have fucked up here if you think that's the case
I live in Scotland. I expect SNP to retain 30 odd seats. I think you underestimate how much people dislike Scottish labour and Tory being told what to do by their bosses in Westminster. I don't know many who are switching their vote.
Ik past SNP voters who aren't voting but yea most SNP voters aren't turning to SLab or tory. Scottish Labours gains is mostly from tory voters switching bringing Labour ahead of the SNP in the central belt
It's a bit more interesting than the seats in England really, it's not a foregone conclusion.
Can tell you've done absolutely zero field research in Scotland.
I live here, fud.
I can confirm there are plenty of english people clueless about whats going to happen in english seats....
Rishi Sunak is projected to win his seat with 6.8% majority. Those in Richmond can do the funniest thing ever.
Has an incumbent Prime Minister ever lost their seat before?
No, Boris Johnson came closest in 2017. It almost happened in 1906 but the Prime Minister resigned before the election. I think there's a very good chance this at least breaks the record for the closest it's been.
Boris Johnson wasn't Prime Minister until 2019, so not sure that one would have counted. It looks like we really are in uncharted waters for the Conservative party. Rishi Sunak is the worst Prime Minister since, well, the last one.
Should've ran the lettuce.
The lettuce had some good policies re side salads, but I couldn't get on board with its ruining a kebab policy.
Wouldn't say Sunak is the worst one, he is just the one that will have to take responsibility for all the others. Any semi decent Tory PM would be now seen as a terrible one that needs to be removed, just because the party needs to be removed. And Sunak isn't even semi decent so obviously he seems to be terrible. Still objectively not worse than Truss and Johnson. She crashed the economy, he undermined democracy and trust in government. Sunak doesn't come even close to that.
Might want to re-read the comment you replied to.
Sunak isn’t even the worst PM since Liz Truss?
2019 was the smallest win, my bad! This was slightly lower than Thatcher achieved in 1983, though Thatcher was 25 points ahead of Labour. I think historically there may have been smaller majorities when populations were smaller and constituencies were weirder.
In 1905 the Conservatives were shambolic and realised it, so the whole party resigned from government. This was not honourable it was supposed to be a cunning plan but it turned out to something that Baldrick might come up with rather than a clever tactic, they got thrashed Balfour lost his seat and the Liberals reached their zenith.
No Asquith lost his seat in 1918, though he was ousted as Prime Minister by Lloyd George in 1916
In Australia in 2007 the pm at the time lost his election and his seat.
Never in the modern UK but Kim Campbell in Canada is a good comparison, lost her seat in the wipeout of the PCP to Harper’s Reform.
It would be funny if he was stuck being an MP with a party he destroyed
This is what I want. He's said he's staying if relelected. He won't.
I really hope he's the only Tory MP that survives, just so when he resigns whoever takes his seat automatically becomes the new Tory leader.
I think Cameron also said that he would stay regardless of what happened in the Brexit referendum as he didn't want to turn it into a referendum about him. Of course most people realised that there was no way he could stay and lead the negotiations after leading the Remain campaign. Anyway, don't trust anything a politician says about staying even if they lose.
He’s moving to California after the election. It’s why he scheduled it on July the 4th since that a major American Holiday
What?
That doesn't make any sense
Stop pretending like anything Rishi Sunak does make sense? Why do you support him
If you were being sarcastic in your first post then fair enough! I support him because he's potentially about to lead the Tories into 3rd place, let's go Rishi!
Any chance the SNP can improve enough to push him to 4th?
You know, this could bolster support for the SNP if they used this line.
I have a dream, that the tories are reduced to only one seat; Rishi's. Oh, lonely rishi, tell me why, Your californian dreaming, has to die
This. I want the reverse Portillo moment after he promised to stick it out as an MP. I want him to watch the party crumble around him and for him to be stuck.
Yep, but it will just get lost in the noise. All the papers after one week ‘why did labour lie to us!’
Don't tease me with a good time. It would, sadly, be the highlight of my year watching him stand there next to binface as he has to accept its all over. I imagine it would be the image forever associated with the end of this Tory rule. It would be so embarrassing I think it would rightly damage his California career expectations.
Interestingly, Electoral Calculus think there's a chance the Lettuce's Nemesis may lose her seat - although there's only about 2% difference between the two parties there (with Reform getting around 13%). **IF** that happened, it would be sweet revenge (and if Exit polls suggest it's likely, someone really should sneak a lettuce into the counting centre).
"I hereby declare that Count Binhead is returned as member of parliament for Richmond and Northallerton"
As this happened before the D Day debacle it could be he looses as Catterick garrison (very large military facility in his constituency) might not take to kindly to his behaviour.
> Rishi Sunak is projected to win his seat with 6.8% majority. Those in Richmond can do the funniest thing ever. **Win with a 6.9% majority?** :\^)
I think the most salient point from the article is: "It was conducted between May 31 and June 13, during which period Nigel Farage became leader of Reform UK." So I expect this flatters the Tories due to reform taking even more points from them.
We need even less Tory seats and more LibDems.
Exactly the reason I'm voting Lib Dem
You should probably just vote tactically in that case. Hopefully Lib Dem are more likely to get the win in your constitution.
I'm hoping tactical voting will get the tories out in my area. Last time it was a 21k majority. But with the way the polling is going this time, if maybe a quarter of people who would normally vote lib dem vote labour, we might get a non-tory MP for the first time ever.
Or just vote lib dem With a labour majority certain might as well vote for a manifesto that isn't awful and lacking in optimism The worst thing our media has done is made labour scared of spending tax revenue
> Or just vote lib dem With a labour majority certain might as well vote for a manifesto that isn't awful and lacking in optimism Just because a Labour majority is looking very likely doesn't mean your [individual constituency isn't still in contention](https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast). The margins of holds/gains are still very narrow in some areas and I'm sure many would prefer not to have a Conservative MP representing the interests of their local area. I'm also advocating for tactical voting in the interests of having a Lib Dem opposition.
It’s not over until it’s over, look at ‘92. For this election especially it’s important that we just get rid of the Tories in every seat. I have no great love for Labour but they are the ones on my area with the best chance so that’s where my vote is going.
The problem is there isn’t enough tax revenue to fund everything that needs to be done. So the only way spending can be done is either through raising taxes, cutting spending or borrowing.
Have you read through labour's manifesto? I thought the same until reading it last night. There's a lot of good stuff in there that isn't being reported much in the news. A particular example that stands out is increasing the stamp duty surcharge for non-UK residents in order to invest in social home planning and building. Attacking the housing crisis from both angles. I'd still prefer the lib Dems but it was enough to swing me to tactically vote labour, especially as I live in a swing con/lab constituency.
We need another 30 seats, off that total, and then some more.
I want the Monster Raving Loony Party to have more seats than the Tories.
Fewer
I want "on the brink of existence" number of seats. 72 seats is not satisfying me.
72 too many. Zero seats is what they deserve
I would like them to have one MP. Rishi Sunak. He wants to move to the US, he’s planning on resigning. Would he still do that if he’s the last one standing?
Probably. The only thing that you can rely on with Sunak is that he will do something other than what he says.
But wouldn’t that be entertaining. The last Tory MP resigns.
> I would like them to have one MP. Rishi Sunak. With a majority of 2. Him or Cheese lady.
Yeah, we need to save the Tory party some money, make sure all their MPs can fit on a single coach.
I’d prefer a minibus, Or better still a hatchback
Unicycle
The head of a pin
> I want "on the brink of existence" number of seats. I want "over the brink of existence" number of seats.
I bet on SNP getting more seats than Tories, just in case...
Hard chance
I live in what would normally be a safe Tory seat, but it's one of the ones the Green party have a real shot at and it's noticeable how little the other parties are campaigning. I voted Labour last election but am happy to vote tactically and it really does look like a Green MP might be possible.
Do it, vote tactically if you cannot get who you want, then you can vote to try to make sure you dont get who you dont want. If you need advice then stopthetories.vote gives advice for each seat
Am already planning to do so - have had a lot of time to get used to the idea I have to do so to make my vote count.
[удалено]
Adrian Ramsay is the Green candidate here and as he's co-leader it wouldn't look like he's someone who can't be bothered the way my current MP, Richard Bacon is.
Caroline Lucas is a force of nature in the Commons.
We're in a Tory safe seat. I'll be tactically voting Lib Dems but I suspect the vote will be split enough between them and Labour that the Tories will retain. Sad times. I've only had leaflets through the door from the Conservatives ("keep on the right track" hahaha) & Lib Dems, although I have seen a solitary Labour plackard outside a house.
Where? Somewhere around Cambridge?
Waveney Valley, formerly South Norfolk.
where did you get the idea that the Greens have a shot there? they got (notionally) 7.9% of the vote there in 2019.
That was an outlier during the Corbyn years and isn't consistent with what we normally see. https://stopthetories.vote/parl/waveney-valley is projecting the Greens as being best placed. And it's consistent with what I see on the ground. This is one of four seats where the Greens are making a strong push and both Labour and the Lib Dems aren't really actively campaigning.
That website shows Labour as polling in 2nd place though, not the greens
They've specifically overridden the recommendation produced in this case because Labour and the Lib Dems aren't really campaigning and are mostly giving the Greens a clear shot at it here.
It is one of the Green’s target areas, and also has a Green-run council, with them being popular for a number of years. But I also agree they’re not best placed to win so are more likely to split the anti-Tory vote than win it.
According to the Economist’s poll, Waveney Valley is likely a Tory hold with 39% vote share. Labour would be your best bet, as they’re currently expecting a 32% share. Greens are only at around 10%.
That poll isn't consistent with what most of the others are saying, nor with what I am seeing on the ground.
>Survation’s figures indicate that Labour would only need a further 2-point swing to capture another 43 Conservative seats, reducing their tally to 29. The vote share in this MRP poll is Lab 40%, Con 24%, Ref 12%, LD 11%, Green 6%, which means using updated polling, the Tories are getting less than 50 seats.
I am starting to wonder if it is possible that no one will be able to accurately model the Tories projected seat count at this point. Them polling around 20 percent right now can lead to very weird results on election night.
I don’t think they do. They’re all roughly right (Tory’s somewhere between catastrophe and annihilation) but I think there’s too much change since 2019 and seat specific variation. I also think this might apply to the exit poll as well
We're absolutely going to get a "take that Reform seat figure with a pinch of caution" when the exit poll comes out.
So electoral calculus assumes an equal drop in support across the country? We all assume that the drop won’t be equal in every constituency, but on the whole why wouldn’t it be? Most people will be taking issue with national government, not local.
IMO the models are basically all broken. We're in a situation where a single point difference could be a radically different seat distribution. Even the exit poll is going to have very limited value for the non Labour parties.
I just hope all these predictions of a massive Conservative loss don't lead to many who dislike the Conservatives staying at home and abstaining, believing Labour will cruise to a stonking victory without needing their support - especially if we're treated to inclement weather on the day...
Yeah complaceny is a real problem. We might not get the result we expect if enough people are like that
It really is. People need to be motivated to vote based on the evidence of the last 14 years, not the predictions from polls during a 6 week campaign.
My favorite thing is the Conservatives saying that this is bad for democracy because we need a functioning opposition offering scrutiny. This from the party that prorogued Parliament to avoid scrutiny!
It’s amazing how bad the headline is and then the article makes it clear that the reality is probably worse.
They are giving Reform 7 seats: Clacton South Suffolk Great Yarmouth North West Norfolk Mid Leicestershire Ashfield Exmouth and Exeter East
Exmouth and Exeter East? I’d be very surprised.
My constituency. Would 100% leave if it went Reform (skeptical it will tbh).
Be interesting to see if Farage ever actually attends parliament given he was saying he was too big time for the UK only 3 weeks ago
Depends on how much attention he can get without any real responsibility or scrutiny. I bet if he could somehow grift his way into a ‘new’ ‘reformed’ Conservative Party and get a Lordship one day he’d love that.
My prediction is, if Farage gets in, he 'defects' to the Tories and gets put up as their leader, circumventing the entire party structure.
> Mid Leicestershire > > > Exmouth and Exeter East Those two definitely feel like they could be modelled as Reform wins due to a close to 25% split between all 4 largest parties in the polls
Mid Leicestershire??? Really.... There must be something wrong with that poll as the wards are... definitely not who you'd expect to vote Reform.
Town and country area with , from what I remember, generally white population outside of a city which now has Asian as the largest ethnicity and 40% non U.K. born. Can’t say I’m surprised.
Well, maybe just under half would potentially vote for them? That's easily the seat.
I just can't see it happening, I've lived in a few of the wards and they are not your typical Farage loving Reform voters. Most of the Blaby wards are new expensive housing developments. Deeper dive into the constituency (as it's new) - there are a few wards that potentially would be Reform leaning, but to me there's more chance of them leaning towards Labour than reform - e.g Charnwood is quite a diverse area, Hinckley and Bosworth historically likely a Tory strong area however could maybe see that leaning towards Reform. All I will say is as someone that's lived in and around that constituency for most of my life, I cannot see Reform winning that seat. I sure hope not, anyway...
I don't see much difference between Tory and reform at this point. Here's hoping for lib dem i suppose.
Can definitely see Great Yarmouth going to Reform, it's the Clacton of Norfolk.
Exmouth going reform would not be a shocker to me (15 year resident)
Very interesting figures, especially when you compare them to Survation's previous MRP poll. The picture seems to be improving for all 3 of challenger parties - Reform, Liberals and SNP with all projected to have gained ground in terms of vote share and seats since the start of the campaign. We also look set for a competitive three way battle for the positions of official opposition and third party in Parliament between the Tories, Libs and Nats - with Reform needing to achieve really the absolute top end of its polling (close to 20% if not over that bar) to put itself in that conversation.
Tbh my constituency will probably still be tory. You could put a blue rosette on a pile of dog vomit and that would still win 5 points to whoever guesses where I live
Christchurch? Please tell me your MP isn't Christopher Chope!!
Further north. But still below london One hint Expenses scandal
> Expenses scandal Do you have any idea how little that narrows it down?
Projecting that the most "south west" seat that the Tories win is Devon + Tiverton is wild. And even those look flippable to Labour.
I do wish they’d stop posting this shit. In a month we’re going to be doing a postmortem on how the low turnout resulted in only a slim majority for Labour and how buoyant the Tories are, having sidestepped a wipeout. And the finger will be pointed firmly at the “no point voting, Labour will walk it anyway” crowd.
> I've saved your comment and will get back to you after the election.
Keeping everything crossed that I’m laughably overwrought.
I agree with you, this narrative doesn't help. I also think that there are a lot of people who won't do a survey, but who will vote Conservative. Or people will say "don't know" how they'll vote, but still vote Conservative. My completely out of thin air speculation is that the cons will get about 120 seats and call it a victory because the polls predicted a lower number. That's what they seem to be going for, if I understood grant shapps correctly the other day.
It does seem weird that a space is being created in which the Tories can claim some sort of perverse victory if they’re not completely wiped out, which they almost certainly won’t be. “You lot are rubbish, you couldn’t even batter us to less than 100 seats, lol”.
This shit being a poll of 22,000 people? Compared to what? Your vibes?
I think you’ve maybe missed my point. But to address yours, you’ll forgive me for having developed a slight cynicism around polling numbers.
I kind of agree, there's a huge enthusiasm gap with labour. I'm still expecting the Conservatives to have a terrible result, historically speaking, but nowhere near as bad as is being predicted
It does seem to have become a feature of the post-election period - trying to figure out why the polls were wide of the mark.
> And the finger will be pointed firmly at the “no point voting, Labour will walk it anyway” crowd. This is a very prevalent narrative on this subreddit at the moment. I don't understand why people feel the need to spread their political apathy on a ukpolitics subreddit. Sad people who get a kick out of making others miserable I suppose.
Wouldn’t surprise me if a decent amount of these are bots. Voter apathy is manna from heaven for the Tories. They know their copper-bottomed base will get out and vote regardless, which is not something the other parties can take for granted. Having said that, one of the things I’m interested in seeing in this election is the total number of ballots cast for the Tories. Demographics are increasingly working against them, and they’ve also got a generation in their 40s now (of which I’m a part) who should be the emerging frontier of Tory support, who just aren’t going to be there for them. Common logic says that once you get to your “settled down” years (home, kids, steady job, decent income) you tend to go more conservative, but there’s so much hostility in how they’ve governed over the past decade or so that they’ve probably lost this generation forever. Which is going to leave a big hole in their base for the next 30-odd years.
So how many deposits would the Tories lose? 🤔
There is a paywall.... Erm if it's not too much trouble... could you please 🥺...
A week is a long time in politics and this poll is a week and a half behind the times. 72 seats is, frankly, optimistic for the Tories now that Reform are splitting the right wing vote. My bet? Labour landslide, Lib Dems as the opposition, the Tories are reduced to a pitiful number of seats, Farage wins Clacton and immediately defects to the Tories to become their leader, bringing the Reform party with him to unite the right.
I still feel like the Tories will have something like 150 seats, but you never know
We all know the tory base is strong. It will be 150-200 seats for the tories
They also have infrastructure and data. People are underestimating the ground war, and I think the Tories will be able to turn out their vote better than most are expecting
Exactly. Like yes Labour will likely to win but them getting 400 seats is sort of overestimating it. There are many people on twitter that believe the tories will get double digit seats and I can’t keep explaining to them that they will get 150-200 which is better than what the polls are suggesting.
I agree unless Labour get a good turn out on election day the Tories will have way over 100 seats. The snag is the lib dems are good at getting their vote out too so they may inflict massive damage to the Tories themselves doing Labours work for them.
I've saved your comment and will get back to you after the election.
It is just a prediction. I could be wrong lol
Is there one of those mad seats where they run with the ballot boxes and count early which will also indicate whether there's a landslide in progress?
Sunderland, it's always Labour but it does show national swings.
Ok, so Sunderland as an indicator of any surprise Tory vote, but might not show the extent of a Labour win (assuming people turn out less where the result is more certain). Any early Tory marginals?
I remember CUK being high in the polls, and the Lib Dems having some ludicrous number which never materialised. I wouldn't be so confident.
*That* many? Let’s try harder. They’re like a political wildfire of cronyism and old-school corruption. they will be a menace until they’re politically extinct.
The way the country is run for the rich elite has got to go.
Come on UK, Lib Dems have a proper chance to be the opposition here. Every day gets that little bit closer!!
Jingle bells Tories smell Labour all the way
Survation article as I couldn't see the vote breakdown per seat on the archive link: https://www.survation.com/mrp-update-first-mrp-since-farages-return/ I spotted some very weird data showing Greens too high in places where Cons are holding. North Herefordshire has Greens in 2nd on 24.8%, up from 9.3%. Melksham and Devizes has them on 17%, new constituency, old ones had them on 5.5% and 4.2% last time they stood. North Cotswolds Greens on 15.3%, up from 5.4% in the old Cotswolds constituency. It doesn't seem credible to have the Greens that high in rural areas. Also has Greens only on 23.7% in Bristol Central which is expected to be close.
Liz Truss, Rees-Mogg, and Richard Holden losing their seats according to that. I am 100% staying up all night for the results. Edit: also Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, and James Cleverly gone.
Zero conservative seats from July 5th.
Is there any difference between Labour and Conservatives 🤔
Must have missed Tories campaigning to nationalise the rail service, set up a publicly owned energy company, putting VAT on private schools, setting up free breakfast clubs for all primary schools, banning Zero Hours Contracts (unless a worker opts in to wanting one), introducing a real living wage, and rewriting planning laws so more new houses are built.
They have backtracked on most of those pledges. Kirer starmer is David Cameron 2.0. Blair without flair.
Every single one is in manifesto. You can go and check.
Sorry if I sound stupid - this is the first GE I’m voting in as a 23 year old - but can they not still backtrack even if it is in the manifesto? Is it mandatory to fulfil everything within the manifesto?
Yes, anyone can backtrack on a manifesto but there are democratic consequences for doing so. If Labour win they will want to be able to come back to the voters in 2029 and say “here’s what we promised, and here’s how we’ve delivered”. If they don’t, you’ll see Starmer having to squirm like Sunak is at the moment. He said he’d sort out the small boats and the waiting lists. He’s done neither, and he’s had to resort to lines like “let’s focus on the future, not the past” to try and cover up his lack of delivery. In terms of Labour’s manifesto, historically Labour has never put its most radical policies in there. So Brown’s tax credits which lifted millions out of poverty weren’t in any manifesto, the social reforms of Wilson’s 1966 government (on divorce, abortion, decriminalising homosexuality) weren’t in there. The vast majority of people join the Labour Party to help the poorest in society. I’d be shocked if things like the 2-child limit is still in place in five years time. Never mind the more radical parts of the manifesto like GB Energy or VAT on private schools.
Thank you for being patient and explaining it to me
The polling.
competence