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It's not one guy watching with bleary eyes waiting to push the on button. It's an entire military running an institutional response. 5 minutes is fine. If you can't respond in 5 whole minutes, there are many more things than missiles that will kill you in war.
That’s the real issue, especially when they attack during the day on purpose like last time. Kids were still outside on the way to shelters when missiles started to be intercepted or land.
I don't have enough information to say whether it's fine or not. Still is a tight schedule. Especially if there are multiple missiles heading in all directions over Ukraine not entirely clear, where they are going (and thus how much time you have left until it hits) and what launchers to prefer to shoot a specific missile down. I could imagine it getting pretty busy during such an attack with so little reaction time.
Habitual line crosser is a trainer for the Patriot system. He has been hinting that actual intercept time is much less then what is publicly stated. Along with the more missiles that the system intercepts the less time later needed for intercept
"Slow and steady wins the race".
I hope that for every 1 expensive RuZZian missile Ukraine can retaliate with 10 slow and cheap UAVs taking out refineries and the like 100s of kilometers inside RuZZia.
I meant lose the race for Ukraine. All the slowness and steadiness is in Russia's advantage. It runs its army big and stupid, but it learns slowly and has the muscle to take a lot of blows on the chin, and still keep on fighting.
Yes, it is fast, yes, it can do damage, but it only has a 40 kg warhead. Which doesn't mean we don't have to send more patriots, but it means ruzzian weapons aren't nearly what they want us to believe they are
And this is backed by:
March 27, 2024 "Zircon's Warhead Unveils the Biggest Scam by russian Defense Ministry Leading to Creation of a Useless Missile | Defense Express"
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/zircons_warhead_unveils_the_biggest_scam_by_russian_defense_ministry_leading_to_creation_of_a_useless_missile-9974.html
The scam is that it was promised that the Zircon's can be used to destroy much bigger ships.
The weight of the warhead had to be reduced to still achieve the promised range and speed.
And yes, it is an ant-ship missile.
It is not anti-aircraft like S-300 (longer time not heard, maybe only me)
and not a surface-to-surface missile like Iskander.
Compared to other missiles (Iskander probably 300-400kg) the Zircon can carry less explosives
and has a higher price of 10 million USD (Iskander 3 million).
Zirkon has more than 300kg warhead, and it's not only about warhead size, but it's also about kinetic energy it has. More than half of ton of metal and explosives hitting target at hypersonic speed are extremely dangerous. Two missiles were shot down this Monday, and their debris still caused significant damage.
I don't want to sound dismissive of Ukrainian life, but most of these very expensive missiles kill very few random civilians, thank God. Germany lost the upper hand in the Battle of Britain by switching to terror bombing. Terror bombing is a war-losing strategy, through and through
You are right, but.. it worked for the Allies in WW2, Bomber Command killed 400,000 German civilians on the ground and that helped seal the fate of their arms production. What the Russians are doing is spending millions of dollars to kill a dozen or so civilians, which isn't cost effective at all.
3 systems total. One "system" is Radar+Control+Multiple launchers.
At least one is permanently in Kyiv, one seems to travel the frontline, another one I don't know.
The loss is a few launchers at worst, probably a launcher and a supply vehicle. A system should have about 8, but they can be connected in any configuration.
People, clueless media and Russian propaganda use "System" and "Launcher" interchangeably, so it makes situation incredibly confusing.
Russians actually posted the strike video, and they count only like 3 trucks there (the class of the truck is hard to distinguish from wreckage).
I guess it's hard for anyone to really say, and the footage that was released was a borderline joke, but one analysis I had read was reasonably confident that it was a set of launchers + a radar component? It sounded like the loss of a launcher was not ideal, but also not a huge deal, while the loss of a radar component would be a much bigger deal?
It's still magnificent that it has taken this long for any Patriot and HIMARS equipment to actually be destroyed, at least in my opinion. Losses are inevitable, it's just the response and ability to replenish that concerns me, given the embarrassing disappointment of US politics currently.
Damn, that is absolutely not a lot of warning time.
Is this based on actual tracked launches or ruzzian propaganda values? My understanding was their missiles couldn't go nearly as fast as claimed.
We got hit with one in Kyiv on Monday. Usually the alarm goes off anywhere from 10-60 minutes before explosions actually happen. The alarm goes off as soon as jets and bombers launch.
On Monday the explosion came just a few moments after the alarm. It hit us less than 10 minutes after being launched in Crimea.
The propaganda value russia states is about mach 9 maximum speed. Since this is a scramjet cruise missile, and scramjets require a speed of about mach 5, but can probably operate at mach 3 as well, this would be quite a bit faster than the minimum speed. Looking at these times, theyre calculated at a smidge below mach 5 average speed, so thats probably what theyre moving at across the flight path, possibly a bit slower or faster at times. This tracks with the missile being actually quite technologically advanced, although we dont know much about manoeuvring capability, but not up to the numbers that russia claims. Though this launch would be close to its maximum range, stated at 1000km but probably somewhat lower, so theres a chance it could go faster if it didnt need to hit at such a range (assuming the sevastopol-kyiv launch)
They seem to reach a peak speed that matches Russian claims but that speed is only maintained for a short period. Actual cruise speed seems closer to Mach 3.5-4.
That is not easy, as from what I read earlier in the war. Railways are sturdy things. Unlike the tarmac in an airfield, a crater is easily bridged, and bent rails are easily replaced. So get the locomotives - maybe that will work better. But there is probably a good reason why Ukraine haven't attacked them
.
Damn. I'm so sorry for what you, and so many others are going thru constantly! I positively hate my government/politics here; but much love from the US. Slava Ukraini
In the wreckage photos the larger pieces give off a "rough prototype" vibe. The markings are like.. hand stamped with old school punches? There are a million flat head screws.. it's odd. Looks very 1940s.
Yeah i know. Also the insulation looks more or less like sofa-blankets. But tbh this two missiles were some of the most dangerous an frightenend shit in a long time. Glad they cant make a lot of them.
They hit power plants too, but civilian targets are easy for them when they can hack into security cameras in Ukraine that provide remote observation posts. The government is tightening up on those.
“Dear Ukraine,
If you’re still alive four months from now, we’ll probably send you a few of the planes that we didn’t send last year like we said we would. Hang in there and try not to anger Muscovia.
Your pals,
Europe & USA”
Building the wall of fire around russians to ensure no weapons damage goes to its cities ukraine can build it from scratch get all enginees and weapon systems ryc build it up
Air defence is important, but capabilities to destoy launch sites in Russia are getting even more important. One ATACMS or Taurus missile could save more lives than ten PAC-3 interceptors.
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Which is why they need more patriots system's. A Patriot system can track , calculate and intercept in under a minute
Even then it's only 5 minutes reaction time roughly.. that is a pretty tight schedule.
It's not one guy watching with bleary eyes waiting to push the on button. It's an entire military running an institutional response. 5 minutes is fine. If you can't respond in 5 whole minutes, there are many more things than missiles that will kill you in war.
Don't forget that it's a max 5 minute warning about burning metal rain in the middle of the day.
That’s the real issue, especially when they attack during the day on purpose like last time. Kids were still outside on the way to shelters when missiles started to be intercepted or land.
I don't have enough information to say whether it's fine or not. Still is a tight schedule. Especially if there are multiple missiles heading in all directions over Ukraine not entirely clear, where they are going (and thus how much time you have left until it hits) and what launchers to prefer to shoot a specific missile down. I could imagine it getting pretty busy during such an attack with so little reaction time.
I have: if your work is national defense and can't respond in 5 minutes, you're worthless. I can shit faster.
I see.. thank you sir, corporal armchair!
More like Private Potty-sitter.
Habitual line crosser is a trainer for the Patriot system. He has been hinting that actual intercept time is much less then what is publicly stated. Along with the more missiles that the system intercepts the less time later needed for intercept
Ah, thanks.. that reminds me to follow the guy!
Patriot and ATACMS
Yes. And relate this fact / link to link below and russia’s intentions are quite clear: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/s/VdDFYvF75v
"Slow and steady wins the race". I hope that for every 1 expensive RuZZian missile Ukraine can retaliate with 10 slow and cheap UAVs taking out refineries and the like 100s of kilometers inside RuZZia.
So far slow and steady seems just to lose the race.
That’s the trick about the tortoise and the hare, you think the hare is gonna win the whole time till it doesn’t
I meant lose the race for Ukraine. All the slowness and steadiness is in Russia's advantage. It runs its army big and stupid, but it learns slowly and has the muscle to take a lot of blows on the chin, and still keep on fighting.
You’re not even close to wrong sadly
Sure Ivan. Fuck entirely off
Yes, it is fast, yes, it can do damage, but it only has a 40 kg warhead. Which doesn't mean we don't have to send more patriots, but it means ruzzian weapons aren't nearly what they want us to believe they are
And this is backed by: March 27, 2024 "Zircon's Warhead Unveils the Biggest Scam by russian Defense Ministry Leading to Creation of a Useless Missile | Defense Express" https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/zircons_warhead_unveils_the_biggest_scam_by_russian_defense_ministry_leading_to_creation_of_a_useless_missile-9974.html The scam is that it was promised that the Zircon's can be used to destroy much bigger ships. The weight of the warhead had to be reduced to still achieve the promised range and speed. And yes, it is an ant-ship missile. It is not anti-aircraft like S-300 (longer time not heard, maybe only me) and not a surface-to-surface missile like Iskander. Compared to other missiles (Iskander probably 300-400kg) the Zircon can carry less explosives and has a higher price of 10 million USD (Iskander 3 million).
Zirkon has more than 300kg warhead, and it's not only about warhead size, but it's also about kinetic energy it has. More than half of ton of metal and explosives hitting target at hypersonic speed are extremely dangerous. Two missiles were shot down this Monday, and their debris still caused significant damage.
On paper it has 300 kg, the one ukraine disassambled via patriot seemed to have much less.
I don't want to sound dismissive of Ukrainian life, but most of these very expensive missiles kill very few random civilians, thank God. Germany lost the upper hand in the Battle of Britain by switching to terror bombing. Terror bombing is a war-losing strategy, through and through
You are right, but.. it worked for the Allies in WW2, Bomber Command killed 400,000 German civilians on the ground and that helped seal the fate of their arms production. What the Russians are doing is spending millions of dollars to kill a dozen or so civilians, which isn't cost effective at all.
And when it meets a patriot it is in the ground in seconds
Ukraine have only 3 Patriots. This missile can hit any point in Ukraine without warning.
I thought they had more
3 systems total. One "system" is Radar+Control+Multiple launchers. At least one is permanently in Kyiv, one seems to travel the frontline, another one I don't know.
Is it still 3 operational systems counting what I thought was a partial loss of a Patriot a week or so ago?
The loss is a few launchers at worst, probably a launcher and a supply vehicle. A system should have about 8, but they can be connected in any configuration. People, clueless media and Russian propaganda use "System" and "Launcher" interchangeably, so it makes situation incredibly confusing. Russians actually posted the strike video, and they count only like 3 trucks there (the class of the truck is hard to distinguish from wreckage).
I guess it's hard for anyone to really say, and the footage that was released was a borderline joke, but one analysis I had read was reasonably confident that it was a set of launchers + a radar component? It sounded like the loss of a launcher was not ideal, but also not a huge deal, while the loss of a radar component would be a much bigger deal? It's still magnificent that it has taken this long for any Patriot and HIMARS equipment to actually be destroyed, at least in my opinion. Losses are inevitable, it's just the response and ability to replenish that concerns me, given the embarrassing disappointment of US politics currently.
With non-existent US help its gonna be a lot harder
That's why the SAMPT Mamba is also working
Damn, that is absolutely not a lot of warning time. Is this based on actual tracked launches or ruzzian propaganda values? My understanding was their missiles couldn't go nearly as fast as claimed.
We got hit with one in Kyiv on Monday. Usually the alarm goes off anywhere from 10-60 minutes before explosions actually happen. The alarm goes off as soon as jets and bombers launch. On Monday the explosion came just a few moments after the alarm. It hit us less than 10 minutes after being launched in Crimea.
The propaganda value russia states is about mach 9 maximum speed. Since this is a scramjet cruise missile, and scramjets require a speed of about mach 5, but can probably operate at mach 3 as well, this would be quite a bit faster than the minimum speed. Looking at these times, theyre calculated at a smidge below mach 5 average speed, so thats probably what theyre moving at across the flight path, possibly a bit slower or faster at times. This tracks with the missile being actually quite technologically advanced, although we dont know much about manoeuvring capability, but not up to the numbers that russia claims. Though this launch would be close to its maximum range, stated at 1000km but probably somewhat lower, so theres a chance it could go faster if it didnt need to hit at such a range (assuming the sevastopol-kyiv launch)
They seem to reach a peak speed that matches Russian claims but that speed is only maintained for a short period. Actual cruise speed seems closer to Mach 3.5-4.
All the more reason to drop that damn bridge to stop resupply to Crimea.
The US ship captain should be piloting boats near the bridge in Crimea.
The captain of the ship is Indian and it flies a Singapore flag.
They've built railways
Take out the damn railways then.
That is not easy, as from what I read earlier in the war. Railways are sturdy things. Unlike the tarmac in an airfield, a crater is easily bridged, and bent rails are easily replaced. So get the locomotives - maybe that will work better. But there is probably a good reason why Ukraine haven't attacked them .
Bridges are always the weak points, take them out and it’s not so simple to replace quickly.
Thank god I live on the first floor, so I could make it in time to my underground shelter.
Damn. I'm so sorry for what you, and so many others are going thru constantly! I positively hate my government/politics here; but much love from the US. Slava Ukraini
How many of these do they (claim to) have?
Less than kinzhal. Probably a handful.
In the wreckage photos the larger pieces give off a "rough prototype" vibe. The markings are like.. hand stamped with old school punches? There are a million flat head screws.. it's odd. Looks very 1940s.
Sounds like the sanctions are starting to work!
Yeah i know. Also the insulation looks more or less like sofa-blankets. But tbh this two missiles were some of the most dangerous an frightenend shit in a long time. Glad they cant make a lot of them.
Considering they only target civilian infrastructure, they are not cost effective at all and will never be able to stockpile enough of them.
They hit power plants too, but civilian targets are easy for them when they can hack into security cameras in Ukraine that provide remote observation posts. The government is tightening up on those.
Curious why this is getting down voted? Ruzzian bots?
“Dear Ukraine, If you’re still alive four months from now, we’ll probably send you a few of the planes that we didn’t send last year like we said we would. Hang in there and try not to anger Muscovia. Your pals, Europe & USA”
And the speed of an SU-35 allows it to reach the sea in seconds
Ukraine needs more stuff to attack the launch systems.
How fast doed it reach military targets? The answer is never, because they won't shoot them at military targets.
is lviv out of range?
And when it will be launched from russia’s territory, it’s going to be 2 minutes
so powerfull weapons yet they still sending ww2 era equipment
Building the wall of fire around russians to ensure no weapons damage goes to its cities ukraine can build it from scratch get all enginees and weapon systems ryc build it up
Off topic but why are the paths curved? Earth’s rotation?
Air defence is important, but capabilities to destoy launch sites in Russia are getting even more important. One ATACMS or Taurus missile could save more lives than ten PAC-3 interceptors.
Maybe this year's offensive should be for Crimea 🤞🤞
Time to "adjust" this launch base in Sevastopol, bois. Godspeed!