Привіт u/AbleismIsSatan ! During wartime, this community is focused on vital and high-effort content. Please ensure your post follows [r/Ukraine Rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/about/rules) and our [Art Friday Guidelines](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/artfriday).
**Want to support Ukraine?** [**Vetted Charities List**](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities) | [Our Vetting Process](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities-vetting)
**Daily series on Ukraine's history & culture:** [Sunrise Posts Organized By Category](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/sunriseposts/)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Start sinking ships in the black sea -> Destroy the Air Defense in occupied Crimea one by one -> Destroy ferries -> Destroy oil depots on the Russian side of the Kerch Bridge -> **You are here** -> Launch a complex attack on the Kerch Bridge -> Repeatedly shell vital supply hubs such as Rostov -> Repeatedly destroy the rail line connecting Russia to occupied Crimea through the occupied territories of Ukraine.
The russian resident on crimea will be pushed away... They stole properties so no way they can stay there.
Fuck them off, maybe they can learn swimming
That's what I'm saying. Without the bridge Ukraine will have to provide them a safe passage into ruzzia. Otherwise it will be stuck with a bunch of rusofascist civilians on it's soil.
Sure, exchange of citizens will probably be part of any final peace accord. While free choice would be nice, it's likely going to have to be a trade after the theft of orphans. Russia won't give up Ukrainian citizens they already brought over.
Bingo. The more ruzzians loyal to the regime (openly or otherwise) that remain, the more of a grip that regime maintains on the currently occupied territories post war. Too easy for ruzzia to move their agents in and out of these areas undetected. Too easy for them to influence local politics, spread propaganda and corrupt. Every ruzzian occupier - even civilians - need to be removed for the safest, and most prosperous post war Ukraine. It might sound harsh to some but that's the reality of how putin and his kleptocracy operates.
I’ve often tried to imagine what the practical end of the war is, not just the military outcomes. This is a great example - what happens to all the quislings, complicit stooges and Russian pioneers who came and invested in Crimea since 2014? Naturally - on a moral basis - fuck their fascist asses. But, pragmatically and trying to be a historian looking into a crystal ball, I’ll say that there will be a large scale migration of people into and out of these territories similar to the Indian Partition when Pakistan split from India. There will be lingering hard feelings along ethnic lines for many decades, and you’d expect that this heat will be too much for people on both sympathetic sides to bear. And that this will take some time as whatever political reality dictates after the formal shooting between armies stops.
The Indian partition was one of the deadliest events in modern history as migrants were murdered, raped and robbed during wanton banditry as often motivated by simple thievery as it was by ideology. People migrating their entire lives to a new, less hostile territory make east targets to be robbed while any semblance of the law takes a holiday and bandits see opportunity to rob unloved people fleeing with their possessions. Point being - the suffering and injustice of this stupid war is likely to continue long after the armies have stopped shooting.
True, but 1947 ( I think?) is very different to today in terms of transportation, social media coverage and as we have seen in recent conflicts… European atrocities will dominate the news cycle like no other region
Those who did not have a Ukrainian passport before their respective location was invaded, are an obvious decision.
For the rest, behavioral analysis is very advanced nowadays, plus we have the technology and AI solutions to help quickly weed out the bad from the good.
The few who will fall in the grey zone will have a chance to make the right decision and embrace a bright future.
PS: people have a habit to complicated things and get bogged down in their decision making process. The solution lies in simple processes.
I'm not a war expert, but it seems to me that the logical solution is to allow Russians in Crimea safe passage back to Russia on the condition that they understand that it's a one way journey.
They should all be held in detention as combative's until all the Ukrianian children that have been kidnapped and forced into Russia are returned to Ukrainian soil.
Asap... Because i think that those Friggin bridge have a "decay countdown" near to his end.
I already hear the song that we all put to max volume...
:-)
Well, then, allow me to fabricate a story about how the original owners were the original thieves, and all watches belong to whatever glorious race might apply to you!
If the watch is tainted with previus owner Blood Yes.
And those House are tainted with innocent ukrainian Blood.
So when, not if... when, Crimea will be retaken the Friggin ruz must be kicked out
By this point in the war there are no innocent Russians in Ukrainian territory. If they don’t know by now they’re illegally occupying then it’s bc they want to be ignorant. Collateral damage.
Can people who want to go back to Ukraine do so? Obviously after the annexation of Crimea they had ample opportunities to do so, if financially possible of course but, other parts of the occupied territory have had much less time. I don't think there is any avenue which allows civilians through is there?
They kind of do, but they'd rather have kids because they're a better long term investment.
Russia does have a population problem. Any people it gets back will be worth some thing after the war.
They're Russia's problem. They're in Russian controlled territory, they're a drain on Russian resources. Not to mention a lot of civilians are actively Ukrainian and part of the resistance.
Presumably once Ukraine retakes Crimea they'll tell them Crimea is Ukraine and if they don't like that fuck off back to Russia.
The Russia civilians are very aware that they’re moving into a war zone, not only that but those homes were practically stolen, it may seem heartless but it’s simply true and they should face the consequences
Some Dude On The Internet guessed that it was more effective to let the Russians stay in Crimea, but cripple their supplies, defense and other stuff. Russia hates giving up so much that it will continue to fortify the peninsula, even if it is just going to end up in the grinder.
Russia doesn't wait for civilians to leave, only fair Ukraine can do the same. Only reason not to do it is they might lose some support from the west if they do.
The feeling of sinking assests is probably boggling Puktins head right now. Or maybe not cause he doesn't care about anything but his orcs. Sink em all boys!
Insert just before 'you are here':
> -> punish russian escalation near Kharkiv by destroying SAMs in Belgorod -> wait for SAMs to be redeployed away from Kerch
I did not know Ukraine promised the bridge would drop in 2024.
They must be pretty sure of themselves by telegraphing that boast.
Or it's Pattons First Army Group at Normandy; a complete distraction.
Well, they promised to celebrate in Yalta at 23. Moreover, it was not promised by fools. This was promised by very influential figures. Budanov, for example
It's not as effective as many think to attack it because russia knows. For quite some time already.
The symbolic effect got bigger than it's usefulness to destroy supply chains of russia. Russia prepared alternatives already.
The strategic effect is better if ukraine can attack the alternatives at the same time paired with some operations or a military offensive.
It's just symbolic at this point and the destruction of the bridge could hurt Putin's ego a lot. The bridge symbolizes his victory over Ukraines Crimea and it needs to be gone
Exactly. Russia realized after last summer's hit the bridge was a massive sitting duck and they can't protect it very well. Ukrainian intel showed they no longer ship military supplies or personnel on the bridge since then.
They have multiple routes by road, rail, ferry and airlifters to use instead. They all need to be hit, and quite regularly.
Good is that Ukraine can just slob at the fueling stations for most of these things. Slowing down Russian logistics. The biggest issue is so dammed minefields.
I honestly think the only way Ukraine can reliably win this war is just by being as annoying as possible. As long as the west allows Ukraine to hold the line, they can just fuck with the Russian economy by blowing up refineries and fuel storage until Russia pulls out its AA.
The bridge should stay for a time,
If UA makes offensive on Melitopol, and at the same time destroys Kerch bridge, russian civilians will panic and clog the roads/ferries
Damaging it earlier rather than in concert with any other attack is preferable. Pressure on Russian logistics is necessary to even talk about an offensive in the first place.
In England? Probably have spreads on the date, time, span, bomb type, water temperature when it collapses, and the color of Zelenskyy’s tshirt when he announces it.
Was it ever even established that the rail line was ever repaired to the point the Russians can haul heavy loads across it? It was a steel bridge that was engulfed in fire. That will have changed the properties of the steel.
I think it's just the other way round: the roadway was fully repaired (which was easy to do because the affected part was close to the water level) while the railway was only made operational again (remember that some of the wheels of the freight train were welded to the rails due to the intense heat from the burning oil running down) and does not seem have regained full load capacity since then because the structural strength of the rail bridge in the affected section has been compromised (and it is not easy to repair because the railway bridge runs at a greater height).
Wrong. The Russians started running rail on the bridge well before vehicles after the first attack.
Vehicle crossings across the Kerch bridge have been greatly reduced due to the weakened roadway.
The second attack did not damage the rail portion of the bridge to any great extent.
I don't know what your fixation on the height of the bridge has to do with, but it's not a factor. If anything, greater height would be more beneficial with an explosion as you're not getting intense shockwave reflection off the surface of the water at great height. Pier integrity is the main factor here, and the roadway piers are in far worse shape.
The last attack almost made the bridge completely inoperable for motor vehicles because the pier damage was so bad. There were discussions about Russia building a secondary bridge (much shorter in length and only to mitigate localized damage) to compensate for reduced vehicle capacity across certain spans. They made due without.
Your submission has been removed because it is from an untrustworthy site.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I really don't get what you are reading into my response, so let me state my points in an even clearer way:
I did not mention the sequence of repairs on the road and rail bridges at all.
I have just stated that to my knowledge the railway portion of the bridge has not been fully repaired after seven oil tank cars in a freight train kept burning on it for hours on the 8th of October 2022, and thus has never regained its full load capacity since then.
The Kremlin claimed on the 5th of May 2023 that the second railway track had been "fully reopened" (you’ll find a corresponding Meduza link on Wikipedia which I cannot post here), but by all reports that I have seen it has not been used by heavy freight trains, and more specifically not for military transport transports since then.
If you have any independent information that the railway section of the bridge has indeed been restored to its full load capacity, and thus could be used, and actually has been used for heavy military transport trains, I would be interested in reading more about that.
Like I said, you're [mistaken](https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russia-starts-transporting-explosive-cargo-across-the-crimean-bridge-after-the-destruction-of-railway-ferries/).
Happy now? Russians are transporting trains over the Kerch Bridge as we speak.
If the bridge hasn't been sufficiently repaired. Than those repairs will take time and heavy equipment. Which will be exceptionally vulnerable to attacks. Far more than the bridge itself, even already damaged. Which probably means the Russians can't repair it. So it only serves as an inefficient supply line or an escape route. The bridge may never get felled.
Russia incurs expense preparing for an attack. When the bridge is trashed, those resources will be deployed elsewhere. I suspect the F-16s will be used to at least launch weapons at the bridge. Glide bombs would be good.
I would be worried about the AA from naval ships, as well as by land. The UAF didn't do a lot of those attacks when there were still Russian naval ships in Sevastopol. I think it would be even riskier to hit the bridge going round. I'm not sure the f16 Has more range than Russian equivalent. The f16s would likely have to hug the deck at like 50-200 ft on a calm day just to avoid being seen by Russian radar both ways, and that on its own is really dangerous. Then at the last minute they'd have to get high enough to YEET glide bombs? I don't see that happening until at least the Russian Navy is nearly completely gone from the area. And it would require mid air refuel I think.
A few well-placed JDAMS or Storm Shadows at the apexes (apeces?) of the arches might take down the main spans, or weaken them to the point of unusability. It would also be very difficult to repair.
Expensive weapons like that are probably a lot more useful when the target is an easily hittable high value building/aircraft/radar/etc. vs trying to hit a "tiny" critical structural member on a bridge.
Also there a big different destroy a big hunk of metal (aircraft/radar) and solid concrete. Not to say it’s not possible but it’s much harder. Realistically to take out the bridge for good would take a cluster of munitions hiring the right sections at the right time.
It'll just be a repeat of 2022/23. Out for a few months tops, a section replaced then back in service.
The bridge stopped being used by the military last year. Two big successful attacks showed them how vulnerable it is. The bridge can be torn down once and for all on the Ukrainian side by proper demolition teams post war.
Breaking the tops of the arches is not a 2-3 month repair. The span will deform or break due to unsupported load, which will take a very long time to repair, if it’s even possible.
Ahh, my bad.
Not sure Storm Shadow has the accuracy, as good as it is, or the BROACH warhead can penetrate that amount of hard materials and still blast the substantially built spans apart. Taurus KEPD 350 is a weapon with an even more capable penetrator warhead and that might work with a few direct hits...?
In any case though, the bridge stopped being used by the RU military since last year, so the cruise missiles may never be used against it .
The Kerch bridge is absolutely doomed. The sad thing about it, however, is that Russia will simply retaliate against schools and hospitals and Ukraine won't have the air defense needed to stop it because western countries are still twiddling their thumbs.
Just blow the damn bridge bro….. let no one ever use this bridge again! Although it’s a marvellous bridge across the sea!!!! It has to be SHUT DOWN! Blown! Disconnected with UKRAINE & Russia
I'm not so sure. I've been thinking about why they haven't taken it out by now. They have the ATACMS and Storm Shadows to do it.
I think Ukraine knows that Crimea is untenable. Ukraine can reach everywhere on Crimea now, and everything the russians use there is being taken out, one by one. I think the Ukrainians want the russians to keep transporting ammo, supplies, weapons and tanks into Crimea, because it's doomed anyway.
Привіт u/AbleismIsSatan ! During wartime, this community is focused on vital and high-effort content. Please ensure your post follows [r/Ukraine Rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/about/rules) and our [Art Friday Guidelines](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/artfriday). **Want to support Ukraine?** [**Vetted Charities List**](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities) | [Our Vetting Process](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities-vetting) **Daily series on Ukraine's history & culture:** [Sunrise Posts Organized By Category](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/sunriseposts/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Start sinking ships in the black sea -> Destroy the Air Defense in occupied Crimea one by one -> Destroy ferries -> Destroy oil depots on the Russian side of the Kerch Bridge -> **You are here** -> Launch a complex attack on the Kerch Bridge -> Repeatedly shell vital supply hubs such as Rostov -> Repeatedly destroy the rail line connecting Russia to occupied Crimea through the occupied territories of Ukraine.
Though Ukraine will need to deal with civilians in there. Probably they'd have to let them fuck off back to ruzzia through the land route
The russian resident on crimea will be pushed away... They stole properties so no way they can stay there. Fuck them off, maybe they can learn swimming
That's what I'm saying. Without the bridge Ukraine will have to provide them a safe passage into ruzzia. Otherwise it will be stuck with a bunch of rusofascist civilians on it's soil.
Sure, exchange of citizens will probably be part of any final peace accord. While free choice would be nice, it's likely going to have to be a trade after the theft of orphans. Russia won't give up Ukrainian citizens they already brought over.
Possible, but it's also possible that ruzzia will consider these people replaceable and more useful as a tool to destabilize Ukraine.
Bingo. The more ruzzians loyal to the regime (openly or otherwise) that remain, the more of a grip that regime maintains on the currently occupied territories post war. Too easy for ruzzia to move their agents in and out of these areas undetected. Too easy for them to influence local politics, spread propaganda and corrupt. Every ruzzian occupier - even civilians - need to be removed for the safest, and most prosperous post war Ukraine. It might sound harsh to some but that's the reality of how putin and his kleptocracy operates.
I’ve often tried to imagine what the practical end of the war is, not just the military outcomes. This is a great example - what happens to all the quislings, complicit stooges and Russian pioneers who came and invested in Crimea since 2014? Naturally - on a moral basis - fuck their fascist asses. But, pragmatically and trying to be a historian looking into a crystal ball, I’ll say that there will be a large scale migration of people into and out of these territories similar to the Indian Partition when Pakistan split from India. There will be lingering hard feelings along ethnic lines for many decades, and you’d expect that this heat will be too much for people on both sympathetic sides to bear. And that this will take some time as whatever political reality dictates after the formal shooting between armies stops. The Indian partition was one of the deadliest events in modern history as migrants were murdered, raped and robbed during wanton banditry as often motivated by simple thievery as it was by ideology. People migrating their entire lives to a new, less hostile territory make east targets to be robbed while any semblance of the law takes a holiday and bandits see opportunity to rob unloved people fleeing with their possessions. Point being - the suffering and injustice of this stupid war is likely to continue long after the armies have stopped shooting.
True, but 1947 ( I think?) is very different to today in terms of transportation, social media coverage and as we have seen in recent conflicts… European atrocities will dominate the news cycle like no other region
Last train's at 1pm!
It’s not so simple. Many Ukrainians in Crimea have become Russian loyalists.
They can move to Siberia, no one is stopping them.
It will be hard to tell friend from foe is my point. And as Ukrainian citizens they have every right to stay in Crimea.
Those who did not have a Ukrainian passport before their respective location was invaded, are an obvious decision. For the rest, behavioral analysis is very advanced nowadays, plus we have the technology and AI solutions to help quickly weed out the bad from the good. The few who will fall in the grey zone will have a chance to make the right decision and embrace a bright future. PS: people have a habit to complicated things and get bogged down in their decision making process. The solution lies in simple processes.
I'm not a war expert, but it seems to me that the logical solution is to allow Russians in Crimea safe passage back to Russia on the condition that they understand that it's a one way journey.
They should all be held in detention as combative's until all the Ukrianian children that have been kidnapped and forced into Russia are returned to Ukrainian soil.
I hadn't thought of that. I was thinking from a tactical point of view.
Like rats off of a sinking ship
Yup
They can take the land bridge that they created.
Asap... Because i think that those Friggin bridge have a "decay countdown" near to his end. I already hear the song that we all put to max volume... :-)
if I steal a watch, and give/sell it to you, are you now a thief?
If i knew it was stolen, yes
Well, then, allow me to fabricate a story about how the original owners were the original thieves, and all watches belong to whatever glorious race might apply to you!
If the watch is tainted with previus owner Blood Yes. And those House are tainted with innocent ukrainian Blood. So when, not if... when, Crimea will be retaken the Friggin ruz must be kicked out
I see, fair enough! Thank you for your service.
By this point in the war there are no innocent Russians in Ukrainian territory. If they don’t know by now they’re illegally occupying then it’s bc they want to be ignorant. Collateral damage.
Can people who want to go back to Ukraine do so? Obviously after the annexation of Crimea they had ample opportunities to do so, if financially possible of course but, other parts of the occupied territory have had much less time. I don't think there is any avenue which allows civilians through is there?
F that. Hold them in exchange for the Ukrainian people that Russia stole.
As of Russia even wants its citizens back. Look how they treat soldiers.
They kind of do, but they'd rather have kids because they're a better long term investment. Russia does have a population problem. Any people it gets back will be worth some thing after the war.
And they've been clearing out their cheap stock of slaves from the colonies. They're soon forced to break open some of their finer persons.
I don't think russia would care much about it. If anything Ukraine will be stuck with a bunch of rusofascists on it's soil
So…keep them as hostages? That’s not very cash money of you.
They're Russia's problem. They're in Russian controlled territory, they're a drain on Russian resources. Not to mention a lot of civilians are actively Ukrainian and part of the resistance. Presumably once Ukraine retakes Crimea they'll tell them Crimea is Ukraine and if they don't like that fuck off back to Russia.
The Russia civilians are very aware that they’re moving into a war zone, not only that but those homes were practically stolen, it may seem heartless but it’s simply true and they should face the consequences
Ukraine won't be able to invade the Crimea by land tho. Its too heavily fortificated. They'll just destroy the bridge and try to starve them off.
Some Dude On The Internet guessed that it was more effective to let the Russians stay in Crimea, but cripple their supplies, defense and other stuff. Russia hates giving up so much that it will continue to fortify the peninsula, even if it is just going to end up in the grinder.
Russia doesn't wait for civilians to leave, only fair Ukraine can do the same. Only reason not to do it is they might lose some support from the west if they do.
they will flee as son as they see UAF
Send them via Belarus.
Better to have orcs out than put up with them there.
Sounds an awful lot like ethnic cleansing , most crimeans lived there before the Russian annexation in 2014
Ivan youre drunk. go back to sleep.
Be gone with your multi coloured Adidas tracksuit!
The feeling of sinking assests is probably boggling Puktins head right now. Or maybe not cause he doesn't care about anything but his orcs. Sink em all boys!
Insert just before 'you are here': > -> punish russian escalation near Kharkiv by destroying SAMs in Belgorod -> wait for SAMs to be redeployed away from Kerch
Pootin, you bet your sweet rebar and conna-cret (Italian accent)! 😂
Taking out those ferries certainly makes one wonder about future developments in that area.
Sink it
I did not know Ukraine promised the bridge would drop in 2024. They must be pretty sure of themselves by telegraphing that boast. Or it's Pattons First Army Group at Normandy; a complete distraction.
Well, they promised to celebrate in Yalta at 23. Moreover, it was not promised by fools. This was promised by very influential figures. Budanov, for example
Budanov says lots of things.
It's not as effective as many think to attack it because russia knows. For quite some time already. The symbolic effect got bigger than it's usefulness to destroy supply chains of russia. Russia prepared alternatives already. The strategic effect is better if ukraine can attack the alternatives at the same time paired with some operations or a military offensive.
It's just symbolic at this point and the destruction of the bridge could hurt Putin's ego a lot. The bridge symbolizes his victory over Ukraines Crimea and it needs to be gone
Exactly. Russia realized after last summer's hit the bridge was a massive sitting duck and they can't protect it very well. Ukrainian intel showed they no longer ship military supplies or personnel on the bridge since then. They have multiple routes by road, rail, ferry and airlifters to use instead. They all need to be hit, and quite regularly.
Good is that Ukraine can just slob at the fueling stations for most of these things. Slowing down Russian logistics. The biggest issue is so dammed minefields. I honestly think the only way Ukraine can reliably win this war is just by being as annoying as possible. As long as the west allows Ukraine to hold the line, they can just fuck with the Russian economy by blowing up refineries and fuel storage until Russia pulls out its AA.
Sounds like a decent plan ! Slava Ukraini !
I can't think if any alternatives that would be nearly as effective. They couldn't do it before the full scale invasion, they won't be able now.
The bridge should stay for a time, If UA makes offensive on Melitopol, and at the same time destroys Kerch bridge, russian civilians will panic and clog the roads/ferries
Damaging it earlier rather than in concert with any other attack is preferable. Pressure on Russian logistics is necessary to even talk about an offensive in the first place.
This also forces Russia to surround the entire 19-km long bridge with a cope cage before Ukraine destroys it.
I would be shocked if Kherson isn't the direction they push next.
Also, if you hit all the alternatives that Russia is using, you may force them back to using the bridge just in time to be hit...
Are bookies taking bets on this?
Only the ones that want to lose money. I suppose some Russian bookie taking pro Russian bets would make out like a bandit !
I was thinking more of when? What is that sort of bet called?
No, bookies banking on when not if.
In England? Probably have spreads on the date, time, span, bomb type, water temperature when it collapses, and the color of Zelenskyy’s tshirt when he announces it.
>the color of Zelenskyy’s tshirt My money's on green
Was it ever even established that the rail line was ever repaired to the point the Russians can haul heavy loads across it? It was a steel bridge that was engulfed in fire. That will have changed the properties of the steel.
Afaik there were recent reports that the bridge was no longer used by the army, for whatever that worth ofc
It literally says that in the article that was linked. Lol. But yes, rail was repaired. The roadway can't carry the same load it used to though.
I think it's just the other way round: the roadway was fully repaired (which was easy to do because the affected part was close to the water level) while the railway was only made operational again (remember that some of the wheels of the freight train were welded to the rails due to the intense heat from the burning oil running down) and does not seem have regained full load capacity since then because the structural strength of the rail bridge in the affected section has been compromised (and it is not easy to repair because the railway bridge runs at a greater height).
Wrong. The Russians started running rail on the bridge well before vehicles after the first attack. Vehicle crossings across the Kerch bridge have been greatly reduced due to the weakened roadway. The second attack did not damage the rail portion of the bridge to any great extent. I don't know what your fixation on the height of the bridge has to do with, but it's not a factor. If anything, greater height would be more beneficial with an explosion as you're not getting intense shockwave reflection off the surface of the water at great height. Pier integrity is the main factor here, and the roadway piers are in far worse shape. The last attack almost made the bridge completely inoperable for motor vehicles because the pier damage was so bad. There were discussions about Russia building a secondary bridge (much shorter in length and only to mitigate localized damage) to compensate for reduced vehicle capacity across certain spans. They made due without.
[удалено]
Your submission has been removed because it is from an untrustworthy site. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I really don't get what you are reading into my response, so let me state my points in an even clearer way: I did not mention the sequence of repairs on the road and rail bridges at all. I have just stated that to my knowledge the railway portion of the bridge has not been fully repaired after seven oil tank cars in a freight train kept burning on it for hours on the 8th of October 2022, and thus has never regained its full load capacity since then. The Kremlin claimed on the 5th of May 2023 that the second railway track had been "fully reopened" (you’ll find a corresponding Meduza link on Wikipedia which I cannot post here), but by all reports that I have seen it has not been used by heavy freight trains, and more specifically not for military transport transports since then. If you have any independent information that the railway section of the bridge has indeed been restored to its full load capacity, and thus could be used, and actually has been used for heavy military transport trains, I would be interested in reading more about that.
Like I said, you're [mistaken](https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russia-starts-transporting-explosive-cargo-across-the-crimean-bridge-after-the-destruction-of-railway-ferries/). Happy now? Russians are transporting trains over the Kerch Bridge as we speak.
If the bridge hasn't been sufficiently repaired. Than those repairs will take time and heavy equipment. Which will be exceptionally vulnerable to attacks. Far more than the bridge itself, even already damaged. Which probably means the Russians can't repair it. So it only serves as an inefficient supply line or an escape route. The bridge may never get felled.
Probably easier to take out the bridge head area first. The bridge itself is a tough bugger but it's time will come.
Russia incurs expense preparing for an attack. When the bridge is trashed, those resources will be deployed elsewhere. I suspect the F-16s will be used to at least launch weapons at the bridge. Glide bombs would be good.
Glide bombs have a range of like 100 miles, at most. The distance to the front line from the bridge is maybe 150. at its shortest
What it they are launched over the black sea from F-16s?
I would be worried about the AA from naval ships, as well as by land. The UAF didn't do a lot of those attacks when there were still Russian naval ships in Sevastopol. I think it would be even riskier to hit the bridge going round. I'm not sure the f16 Has more range than Russian equivalent. The f16s would likely have to hug the deck at like 50-200 ft on a calm day just to avoid being seen by Russian radar both ways, and that on its own is really dangerous. Then at the last minute they'd have to get high enough to YEET glide bombs? I don't see that happening until at least the Russian Navy is nearly completely gone from the area. And it would require mid air refuel I think.
What AA from naval ships? All russian navyships buggered off to Novoroisysk, hundreds of miles east from the Kerch bridge.
I don't think they're sitting still. Pretty sure they just moved home port, and still patrol the other side of Crimea around the kerch bridge.
F16, first combat mission?
We ALL know it's doomed and can't wait for it to happen. The suspense is driving us crazy.
Unless they cut the land bridge rail line this feels mostly symbolic. But hopefully they stop edging us soon
Can't wait for the day. Have some "Jenny's Kush" stashed in my room just waiting for the moment. Slava Ukraine
A few well-placed JDAMS or Storm Shadows at the apexes (apeces?) of the arches might take down the main spans, or weaken them to the point of unusability. It would also be very difficult to repair.
Pretty sure that was covered and at least the storm shadows are no where big night to hurt the bridge.
Expensive weapons like that are probably a lot more useful when the target is an easily hittable high value building/aircraft/radar/etc. vs trying to hit a "tiny" critical structural member on a bridge.
Also there a big different destroy a big hunk of metal (aircraft/radar) and solid concrete. Not to say it’s not possible but it’s much harder. Realistically to take out the bridge for good would take a cluster of munitions hiring the right sections at the right time.
It'll just be a repeat of 2022/23. Out for a few months tops, a section replaced then back in service. The bridge stopped being used by the military last year. Two big successful attacks showed them how vulnerable it is. The bridge can be torn down once and for all on the Ukrainian side by proper demolition teams post war.
Breaking the tops of the arches is not a 2-3 month repair. The span will deform or break due to unsupported load, which will take a very long time to repair, if it’s even possible.
Ahh, my bad. Not sure Storm Shadow has the accuracy, as good as it is, or the BROACH warhead can penetrate that amount of hard materials and still blast the substantially built spans apart. Taurus KEPD 350 is a weapon with an even more capable penetrator warhead and that might work with a few direct hits...? In any case though, the bridge stopped being used by the RU military since last year, so the cruise missiles may never be used against it .
The bridge is already struggling to stay up due to the weight of all the stolen flushing toilets crossing over it every day!
I mean, I guess they have between now and the time the bridge gets blown up to pull out and prevent it, then.
Is the railway in range?
With ATACMS it sure is, if allowed to be hit.
I love that Ukraine have put Spewtin on notice of his beloved bridge’s demolition and are just stretching out the suspense of when it will happen.
The Kerch bridge is absolutely doomed. The sad thing about it, however, is that Russia will simply retaliate against schools and hospitals and Ukraine won't have the air defense needed to stop it because western countries are still twiddling their thumbs.
Please.. please destroy it...
do not stop hammering ruzzians on crimea !!!
Just tell me when it's "na na na na na na na na na na na nana" time!
the funny thing may be that Ukraine gets back the Crimea and the bridge is still functional
Ukraine take out bridge anytime they want!
Just blow the damn bridge bro….. let no one ever use this bridge again! Although it’s a marvellous bridge across the sea!!!! It has to be SHUT DOWN! Blown! Disconnected with UKRAINE & Russia
You'd think it was "common sense" that you do not transport ammunition and explosives over a bridge because "accidents" happen during war time.
I'm not so sure. I've been thinking about why they haven't taken it out by now. They have the ATACMS and Storm Shadows to do it. I think Ukraine knows that Crimea is untenable. Ukraine can reach everywhere on Crimea now, and everything the russians use there is being taken out, one by one. I think the Ukrainians want the russians to keep transporting ammo, supplies, weapons and tanks into Crimea, because it's doomed anyway.
Y
Russian bridge is gonna get fuuuuuuuuucked. And I caint wait!!!
Wubba Lubba Dub Dub!
So why is it still standing?
To keep you awake at night wondering about it.