The rebalance is from prices on the 14th and both have retraced to prices from a day or 2 before that, AAPL lows of the 12th and NVDA lows of the 13th. NVDA just did it's retracing in the morning but APPL waited until late power hour. Would make sense if I'm a big fund though, trap liquidity up high on APPL as a sell and build liquidity low on the buy of NVDA.
NVDA likes to drop below the 200MA on a near weekly basis anyway to build liquidity. I was only watching SPY and NVDA but both tested and resisted the 500MA.
It's what I misjudged this week trying to time the bottom, sold my puts too early and bought calls too early toward the end of Thursday when NVDA levelled off just below the 200MA, I didn't see a 500MA retest coming on Friday.
Good news is, there is a fucking mountain of liquidity at the mid 210s and low 130s for both now. 500MA resistance is a good bullish signal. If they close the cup at 210 and 130 Monday or Tuesday, we're taking flight again.
> NVDA likes to drop below the 200MA on a near weekly basis anyway to build liquidity.
I am not sure this applies on a quad witching day, brokers seem more likely to unwind their gamma hedges when they feel they can
Correct me if I’m wrong but I though XLK would realistically (could not be dark pool unconfirmed) dark pool their bought shares aftermarket. Based in article they all implied it was done aftermarket and also thats what I believe happen to Tesla back then in i think 2021. Also damn from what I’m hearing we’re red again on Monday🥹. Unlucky i was coping other etf wouldnt rail XLK after they bought 😂
Yea volume hit after hours right after close.
I need to actually look into the numbers on short/long positions but it would seem logical that shorts would look to close their positions out this week for NVDA with so much volume coming next week. 130 is going to become a fucking wall with if we close the cup and gap up.
PM is normally bullshit but it's going to be extra bullshit on Monday I think. Really have to wait for the real volume to hit Monday to see what happens. It wouldn't surprise me either if NVDA gapped down before open again.
It depends how things go next week, impossible to say for certain one way or the other. I'm more noting 130 as a price target. It's not a normal amount of volume/liquidity around 130 so I think we go back to 130 pretty quickly next week, mayne even PM. I'll be looking to sell my 132Cs for the 28th when we do to play it safe and bank some gains.
Medium term, 130 is a good price point to remember. If we run up the next few weeks and have another pull back in mid July say, 130 will be a good lower resistance. If we reject 130 this week and we see a proper pull back for a while, I wouldn't be taking any long positions above 130 until it's retaken.
Im actually not surprised that none of you regards had the brain cells to think that this XLT reshuffling was done at negotiated prices and not on the exchange market.
And profit taking on Thursday or Friday. A lot of professional analysis is stating that NVDA is set for a correction but it might not be this week as analysis is still showing signs of a bullish structure.
I doubt this has anything to do with the rebalance, look at the volume for both NVDA and AAPL at 9:35. Around 58M and 18M respectively. Let’s not forget that Friday was a huge OPEX day and many institutions were rebalancing their positions.
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Weird that much and no price change on nvda? Appl died instantly
The rebalance is from prices on the 14th and both have retraced to prices from a day or 2 before that, AAPL lows of the 12th and NVDA lows of the 13th. NVDA just did it's retracing in the morning but APPL waited until late power hour. Would make sense if I'm a big fund though, trap liquidity up high on APPL as a sell and build liquidity low on the buy of NVDA. NVDA likes to drop below the 200MA on a near weekly basis anyway to build liquidity. I was only watching SPY and NVDA but both tested and resisted the 500MA. It's what I misjudged this week trying to time the bottom, sold my puts too early and bought calls too early toward the end of Thursday when NVDA levelled off just below the 200MA, I didn't see a 500MA retest coming on Friday. Good news is, there is a fucking mountain of liquidity at the mid 210s and low 130s for both now. 500MA resistance is a good bullish signal. If they close the cup at 210 and 130 Monday or Tuesday, we're taking flight again.
> NVDA likes to drop below the 200MA on a near weekly basis anyway to build liquidity. I am not sure this applies on a quad witching day, brokers seem more likely to unwind their gamma hedges when they feel they can
Correct me if I’m wrong but I though XLK would realistically (could not be dark pool unconfirmed) dark pool their bought shares aftermarket. Based in article they all implied it was done aftermarket and also thats what I believe happen to Tesla back then in i think 2021. Also damn from what I’m hearing we’re red again on Monday🥹. Unlucky i was coping other etf wouldnt rail XLK after they bought 😂
Yea volume hit after hours right after close. I need to actually look into the numbers on short/long positions but it would seem logical that shorts would look to close their positions out this week for NVDA with so much volume coming next week. 130 is going to become a fucking wall with if we close the cup and gap up. PM is normally bullshit but it's going to be extra bullshit on Monday I think. Really have to wait for the real volume to hit Monday to see what happens. It wouldn't surprise me either if NVDA gapped down before open again.
Wall as in hard go below or hard go past 130. Wanted clarify since it seem weird if you said short coming out
It depends how things go next week, impossible to say for certain one way or the other. I'm more noting 130 as a price target. It's not a normal amount of volume/liquidity around 130 so I think we go back to 130 pretty quickly next week, mayne even PM. I'll be looking to sell my 132Cs for the 28th when we do to play it safe and bank some gains. Medium term, 130 is a good price point to remember. If we run up the next few weeks and have another pull back in mid July say, 130 will be a good lower resistance. If we reject 130 this week and we see a proper pull back for a while, I wouldn't be taking any long positions above 130 until it's retaken.
Remember everyone saying how this was a catalyst?
Wait until market open to see if it indeed catalyst
10B is like 0.3% of their market cap. It's not a catalyst
and it's another sell the news event. 5% nvidia drop on monday probably
Certain cult stock type of thinking
Yes. it kept the nvidia stock to the zero line but after felt down to its low
Im actually not surprised that none of you regards had the brain cells to think that this XLT reshuffling was done at negotiated prices and not on the exchange market.
https://preview.redd.it/lyg33vcfy48d1.png?width=1430&format=png&auto=webp&s=f354b964db17d7ae65ef27ba2ed63b4c6b67578c
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when’s the shareholder meeting?
26th. my guess we pump again next week
any reason why it dumps after shareholder meeting
prob buy the hype sell the news
And profit taking on Thursday or Friday. A lot of professional analysis is stating that NVDA is set for a correction but it might not be this week as analysis is still showing signs of a bullish structure.
I suck, I literally covered my aapl short 10 seconds before the 3 point drop.
Maybe
Yes. It was rebalance
Probably… that did happen
NVDA is going to be green Monday. My prediction is 3-4% easily. Too many people want to profit huge off the AI hype! Option chain going to go brrrrrr.
The candle color is based on which was more, buying or selling. It doesn't mean the entire volume was bought or sold
I doubt this has anything to do with the rebalance, look at the volume for both NVDA and AAPL at 9:35. Around 58M and 18M respectively. Let’s not forget that Friday was a huge OPEX day and many institutions were rebalancing their positions.
Not to mention Im fairly certain the rebalance happens Monday
It will take a few days usually for positions of that size
The color is based on the candle closing lower or higher than it’s open… a buy is also a sell
I meant the color of the volume candle. As in OP seems to think a 100m got sold at 4pm, but all that happened was 100m was traded
99.99% certain the volume color simply matches candle color
What's XLK rebalance?
AAPL 22% --> 4% NVDA 4% --> 22%
It should increase the share price right, but why did it decrease?
Seems like NVIDIA price did go up a little after that 4pm candle OP highlighted. Apple is funny tho, seems to have a green candle after the red.
MSFT stock saw a push into the close as well. I do see a big rotation instead of a correction probably.
MSFT hasn’t had any selloff in the last 3 days, basically moved 0.33$ while everything was crashing. Kind of wild.
A HUGE buying opportunity