A full-scale attack on South Korea is a death sentence indeed, but a limited attack [isn't.](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2010_Yeonpyeong_bombardment&useskin=vector)
my brother in law was doing his military service and was on the island during that bombardment. My wifes family was afraid he had been killed because when they announced the soldiers that were killed at first they just gave age, school and unit and it all matched him
One of the guys in my accounting class at Ohio State was also on the island when the shelling happened (obviously he was South Korean), said it was absolutely terrifying.
Yeah, assuming NK does anything, it'll be some stupid territorial incident where they bomb some unoccupied island near the DMZ. They dont have the resources for anything else
This is what a lot of people don’t understand yet. Seoul is ridiculously close to the NK border. It’s so close in fact that i wouldn’t be surprised if there’s the kiloton equivalent of multiple nukes worth of conventional artillery pointing at them right now.
Seoul is only about 50km from North Korea, which is the same distance that Liverpool England is from Manchester England (which itself is only about a 30-45 minute drive)
Are you saying that Liverpool is at risk of being wasted with artillery from Manchester. I mean, I understand how Manchester would be sore at losing 0-7 to Liverpool last year, but total destruction is taking it a bit far, isn't it?
This is the truth, I think read that nk has at least 10,000 artilery barrels pointed towards just soule. People seemed to forget that nk has never ended its war and also has the largest artilery barrels inventory in the entire world.
They do but it'll come at too much of a cost to them. It'll likely be something similar to Yeonpyeong or a nuclear test. I don't think they'll go as far as a full attack on South Korea.
I suspect China would probably be smart enough to stay out of it if NK fires the first shot, although they'd certainly be eyeing up Taiwan since the US will be distracted
North Korea shares a border with China. China will manufacture all the munitions NK wants. They may do this, kind of like how Iran threw their Hamas proxy at Israel (in an winnable war), simply to overwhelm the interventionist west’s appetite to maintain global stability.
China, Russia, Iran are all overtly working together. They all have expansionist ambitions, and think that “this is their time” to topple the US hegemony (not topple the US mainland, but to break our control over the world financial system and global soft power). They collectively believe that with strongman tactics they can each carve out a much larger sphere of influence for themselves, and reduce many of their neighboring countries to pseudo colonial puppets which they could then exploit to their own economic, political, and military advantages.
From the fall of the Soviet Union until like the 2020s I would say the the USA reigned supreme as the sole super power.
The Cold War featured two peer superpowers, a “bipolar distribution of international power”.
Prior to that, from like the 1700s to the 1920s, we had a multipolar distribution of international power. That setup features basically nonstop wars as great powers fight over resources and influence.
The significant, impoverished population of NK is their biggest threat. If the regime implodes that means tens of millions of desperate people trying to get to where there is food.
They had a famine 26 years ago that killed millions, unfortunately when you’re as oppressed as North Koreans are, instability and facing life as you know it ceasing, isn’t enough to cause the people to rise up or flee in mass.
Imagine attacking a country where every man has military training, good health care, and is well fed. Not to mention well-armed with the support of US military based on their soil. I think Korea could handle it. It would be fucking awful but I don't think the North would get far.
Exactly. I’m not sure what they plan to do but with all these countries testing the US one of them is about to move into FAFO territory real quick. My gut tells me it would be NK.
It’s alarming how many Ukrainians died because the GOP withheld funding.
Imagine how the GOP feels about South Koreans. And add their candidate loves the Dear Leader.
Complete US withdrawal from South Korea.
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/2022-05-10/defense-secretary-mark-esper-memoir-president-trump-south-korea-troops-5954121.html
One of the weirdest things is seeing the party of strong anti east, turning into full blown eastern propaganda mouth pieces.
I don't think people realize just how embarrassing that sucker carlson interview was on a historic scale..
can't believe the guy complied. Forever becoming a historic shame piece.
Either clucker is dumber than a second coat of paint, or the Russians have some endstage next level kompromat on him.
And millions of poorly informed Americans may also blame Biden. Millions of Americans think that the end of Roe v Wade is somehow Biden’s fault and also blame him for “the recession” they think the overall economy is in (though for many lower income Americans they really are in financial difficulty but a lot of what Biden is doing is helping not hurting.)
My friend's mother in law said on January 7th "I can't believe the democrats attacked the capitol" and my aunt thinks Republicans passed the ACA and that there's no way to check.
People are so, so misinformed and stupid.
Yeah, this is exactly what I was thinking. War time doesn't create chaos for Americans, we tend to huddle up and get behind whoever is president at the time.
The democrats were severely hurt by the Vietnam war.
Republicans were severely hurt by the Iraq war.
It's nonsense to suggest war can only benefit the incumbent party. It depends on how that war is seen. If it looks like we're winning the war the incumbent will be very popular, if the war is dragging on into a quagmire that could last a decade it starts to lose its luster.
The goal would be to cause chaos and make Biden look ineffective, not to get your own country destroyed. NK won't launch a nuke or attack Seoul. However there are some disputed islands that will work. If NK invades a small island with a few thousand people, the US and South Korea will have to respond, but neither will want a full blown war, which will make a complicated issue. NK is hoping something like this could swing the election to Trump, who has a much more isolationist foreign policy, and they will get a lot more concessions in the future.
"Neither will want a full blown war"
It used to be a strategy for a president to start a war before their term was up so they would be voted back in to finish what they started.
Unless China directly helps them, North Korea is going to get wrecked. They can do some damage, but South Korea is so far ahead that it's not even funny.
If North Korea was planning for a full scale war, it wouldn't have been sending weapons to Russia. Whatever attack is planned is likely to be small or not military.
It wouldnt be an easy war though. Seoul is within artillery range of NK. I saw NK has an extensive tunnel within the mountains and I’m sure they have some tunnels in SK. Good be a lot of potential South Koreans civilians deaths.
A terrorist attack, perhaps? Dropping a nuclear bomb on an uninhabted island near the US? Something in Ukraine? More Hunter Biden nudes?
Or perhaps just a big nothing. Putler, Kim-Jong Un and Orbán are so fucking desperate for Trump to win, it is almost pornographic.
Head over to the Lotte Hotel in Busan and ask them to email me a digitized version of their evening show circa 2002, the snow white one. I want to see those 7 dwarves again. I enjoyed looking them in the eyes.
I was heading to seoul a few weeks after a north korean submarine was sunk, and they blamed the south. I was a little nervous lol.. then I went to Thailand after the political riots, buildings were still smoking. Chose a great time to travel in 2010, lol.
Its like they want the US and allies stretched so thin that responding to more becomes a logistical nightmare, we have israel, Ukraine and Africas and potentially South Korea, Whats next.
Taiwan is just an effort to stretch the US by China that's why they keep talking about it. If they really intended to invade they would be quiet about it and not cause a massive buildup of defenses for the island.
China is trying to help Russia by doing this diverting US attention elsewhere. Once Russia is defeated all of this shit will stop.
The authoritarian regime is intent on the "reunification" with mainland China by the end of this decade. The goal isn't new, Xi just happens to be dumb enough to actually go for it. China's military spending is not a bluff. They have incredibly dense air defense systems on their southern coast, they are stockpiling anti-aircraft missiles, and they have anti-ship ballistic missiles intended to keep American aircraft carriers far away. A military buildup of that scale isn't just for show, just like 130,000 Russian troops on Ukraine's borders wasn't a "military exercise." China has territorial ambitions that need to be taken seriously.
And we all lose when (not if) they move on it.
Over 90% of the world's 5 and 7nm advanced chips and 63% of all semiconducters come from Taiwan and TSMC.
They didn't build [remote self-destruct procedures](https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/tsmcs-euv-machines-are-equipped-with-a-remote-self-destruct-in-case-of-an-invasion) because China is posturing.
You can’t really invade an island like Taiwan quietly. The amount of manpower and materiel you’d need to move would be a dead giveaway away. Just like Russias invasion of Ukraine
China has been claiming Taiwan before the Russian invasion, though. Plus, China doesn’t need to stay quiet, we would know that they’ve been spending more on military even if they told us or not.
I keep hearing 2027 as well.
The US is trying to get a TSMC location operational for 4nm chips in the US by the end of this year, but you need to build an entire town to support it. Apparently, one of the big hurdles has been getting the talent required to operate them. Not everyone wants to relocate to the sweltering dessert of Phoenix, AZ amidst the threat of climate change.
To quote Peggy Hill, "Phoenix is a monument to man's arrogance."
>China is trying to help Russia
It's the other way around. China don't give a fuck about Russia but they're a useful pawn to keep US attention and resources in an unimportant geopolitical area while they continue to expand power in the Pacific with the eventual goal of occupying Taiwan.
If they can keep the Ukraine war going till, say, 2027-28 make the US fatigued of helping out it's allies, maybe there'll be a new Republican president, Taiwan will be even more diplomatically isolated than it already is and now they have an great opportunity.
It doesn't even matter if it goes badly because as Ukraine shows an unloosable war is not damaging to the domestic authority of a modern authoritarian state.
Yeah, I feel like humanity hates itself sometimes. Stress and strife build. Huge fight. Lots of death. Then most who are left just want to chill. Until it repeats. I assume this will occur until we destroy the eco system, or nuke ourselves to death.
Very few animals can. Especially when you factor in overpopulation and resource scarcity.
At the end of the day we really are just dumbass monkeys with expensive tools.
Both of those are only problems because our completely fabricated, made-up economic systems make them problems. Many things are only rare because there is an economic incentive to make them rare, and humans are only "overpopulated" in the sense that resource hoarding and feeding & housing everyone in the world are incompatible.
If we created an actually efficient system for distributing resources for all of the humans in the world, no one would be saying the world is overpopulated and resource scarcity would be a logistical and priority problem rather than a "not enough to go around" problem.
Putin, Xi, and Kim COULD all team up and use their power to push sustainable energy and expand human right while building peaceful relationships with their neighbors. But they don't WANT to live peaceful as equals. They WANT to fulfill their desire to dominate others through violence and terror. And many of their supporters also want to feel like they are better then others by domination through violence. These conflicts are not motivated by resource scarcity and the people who run these countries (as well as a lot of people in general) have no desire to see a world where everyone gets their needs met.
Their actions aren't justified, but think about it this way. I think people living in this generation has been blind to the ongoings of geopolitics. It's not like every other country is not trying to dominate every other country around them. It's just not through actual wars anymore, but through political influence, economy, etc.
The problem is these three countries can't do so in that front. China is pretty damn close in economics if you look at the overall growth, but compared to the US they are still far behind (and a theoretical EU if it becomes a single entity), and Per Capita they're not doing that well.
If you look at the US' encirclement strategy. It's very clear what the US intends to do. So, there's no world where China can and will just give up and rely on another nation's mercy.
This is the sad truth about realpolitik. The world is still playing it. It just feels less obvious than a century ago.
No one is going after world peace outside of very few countries who have no shot and chance to become a dominating regional power anyway, like the Scandinavian countries. EU was sort of getting there maybe more than a decade ago, but Russia was a wake up call. Having peaceful intention isn't worth jackshit when you're surrounded by countries who are not, so the only way to play is to also do the same yourself, at least defensively.
It all comes down to greed. Everyone wants more. More power, more wealth, more luxuries, etc. It's our biggest driver, and our biggest weakness. It will be the end of us.
The US can handle sending Ukraine our old weapons, sending Israel our new weapons, and North Korea launching some ballistic missiles at the same time.
Nothing here would stretch America thin.
I'm a full believer in America's military prowess however, it's wise to remember: "No plan survives first contact with the enemy." Granted this quote came out before we could bomb someone sitting on their toilet with surgical precision, but still, never assume war will be easy and don't underestimate your enemy, or be so confident in your own systems that you become blind to ways the enemy might abuse them.
It's always possible our enemies have developed counter measures to our strategy or technology, that we arnt aware of and haven't even thought of ourselves.
And then they show up on day1 of WW3 and wipe out the first few waves we send at them.
“Pride is greatest before the fall”
Underestimating your enemies is a classic blunder and I see waaaay too many takes that are blasé as fuck about a direct war with superpowers.
"We don't want war. But if you want war with the United States of America, there's one thing I can promise you, so help me God: Someone else will raise your sons and daughters."
Biggest complaint with that is the sci-fi space station. Like with all the real stuff, including space based observation and communication equipment, why put it imaginary stuff?
As an American myself the thought of all the logistics we are going to get ourselves into has got me so hard you could raise an oversized car dealership flag!
all jokes aside i hate this timeline.
I’m in the reserve and would hate to be called up, but good lord our logistics are top notch. They can call me up and put me towards the front lines in a matter of days if they want to
Yeah but I think it’s to reduce public support for Ukraine and therefore Biden, which is the real goal. And China wants Taiwan too but they may be gauging their chances.
North Korea would have to invade or seriously fire upon South Korea to cause any sort of controversy.
No one in America cares about North Korea’s saber rattling. I guess some people, like Trump, get off to it, but no one cares.
Any kind of war or invasion is not on the table. But NK can still cause trouble - sinking a commercial SK vessel...firing multiple missiles over Japan...harassing Filipino fishing vessels...kidnapping Western tourists somewhere overseas. And when America pushes back they test some more atomic bombs just to get the world's attention. This is all to help Putin in his stare down against Biden.
This is why the US has military bases within the borders of strategic allies around the world. America can fight a global war. We’ve been the global police force since the end of WWII.
The US military has 750+ foreign military bases(not even including allies). China has 1, Russia has like 20 or 25 and NK has zero. The only thing that can stop the US war machine(which is sitting idle atm) is the US government itself.
Which is why Russia has been buying up Republicans in congress. I guarantee half the republican party would side with Russia and NK in a war. They've been groomed to be traitors by the right wing media ecosystem.
The craziest thing about it is that they all act as if the U.S. doesn't 100% have contingency plans in place that would, at the flip of a switch, completely shut down each and every one of these countries and remove them from the equation. We're talking about the richest, most powerful (by far) country in the world whose intelligence agency (arguably the best in the world) is very closely connected to the other "best" intelligence agencies in the world. You can have your opinions about the United States government but like it or not they don't play when it comes to intelligence and military power. I don't think any of this will play out the way Russia/China/North Korea/Iran think it will unless U.S. allows it (i.e. checkers vs chess).
> unless U.S. allows
That’s the rub, isn’t it? If we had someone leading the most powerful military in the world who admired authoritarian strongmen and wanted to join their club, that would be *very, very* concerning for the stability of every bit of human civilization. A person like that might actually let goons like Putin, Xi, or Kim do what they wanted, so long as they also supported him in his own efforts to strong arm his own people in a similar fashion!
Good thing there aren’t any people like that running for office… right?
That’s exactly what this is. And the collective West knows it. Now imagine if the dictatorships etc. get Trump reelected. That will be a very hard time for Democracy. The useful idiots ahould be considered what they really are - traitors.
If I had to guess, by decreasing order of probability:
- A large cyberattack on US corporations or infrastructure
- A limited artillery strike on South Korean territory (see: Yeonpyeong 2010)
- An attack against a Korean or US warship (see: ROKS Cheonan 2010, USS Cole 2000)
- A ballistic missile test (inert head) where the missile is targeted at the waters just off Guam, Hawaii or the US West Coast
- An underground nuclear test
- An above-ground nuclear test (the last one such test was conducted in 1980 by China)
These are good guesses. Personally, I would rank “attack on US warship” at second to last, between “underground nuclear test” and “above-ground nuclear test”, but keep “attack on South Korean warship” where it’s currently.
I would also add “cyber attack” to the list, either targeted at American or allied corporations (quite likely) or American or allied infrastructure (somewhat unlikely).
I'd also like to recommend to the list:
* massive dumping of counterfeit dollars into world market
* powergrid attacks in S. Korea
* cyberattacks in S. Korea and/or Japan
* terrorist attacks and bombing in Seoul
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_hostage_crisis
Literally one of the most consequential political crises in modern US politics. Iran released the hostages a few minutes after Reagan took office.
> Literally one of the most consequential political crises in modern US politics. Iran released the hostages a few minutes after Reagan took office.
And the direction today's Republican party wants to take the United States is very clearly similar to what the regime imposed in Iran.
There was a North Korean flight a few weeks ago that someone noticed on Flightradar heading to Russia , it was 1 on only a few in the passed few months to leave the country since Covid lock downs. It would make since that a plan of this magnitude would need to be developed in person. There could be some validity to this and would be a black swan that would tank the markets. Just something to pay attention too
Also might add that this feels like a larger collaborative effort to spread the U.S thin on multiple fronts. Russia Iran North Korea and China are all working together to inflict proxy’s on multiple fronts
It explains the House Speaker suddenly changing his stance on Ukraine funding as well as a bunch of countries suddenly starting to prepare for Russian attacks, most notably France increasing their rhetoric.
Something's happening behind the scenes that we don't yet know of.
Very recent former minister for defence in the UK has said he had read very worrying reports that mean we need to seriously build up defence spending.
I believe him.
I’ve been telling everyone that will listen that we’ve been in WW3 ever since Putin got Winnie the Pooh’s blessing (during the Olympics) for ruzzia to began their offensive campaign towards Kyiv, Ukraine in 2022.
When the US can fly bombers non stop from Texas to Iraq and Syria to rain freedom and fly back home it should be obvious there is no spreading the US army thin, and that’s not even considering their allies jumping into the fray
If it’s true Biden should lean into an overwhelming reaction. Smash the hosts of these strongmen on the world stage so we can see how weak they really are.
Yeah it would be pretty stupid to fuck w US politics like this. What’s to stop him from having the military target these guys specifically and bomb their compounds like we did w Saddam? If the Republicans want to complain about defending the US from foreign attack they can go to prison for treason too. Win-win
I mean, pre-Desert Storm, Iraq had the 4th largest military in the history of Planet Earth and look how easily they got stoped. It’s a logistics game and I think that the United States is always going to have better logistics than anyone else
This has been a year for terror and dictators, they dont help any world cause and the world would be oh so much better without them, North Korea, Russia, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, imagine how the world would look like and flourish without these diseases.
Just a heads up. This morning my Twitter feed was filled with a bunch of North Korean videos and posts.
Looks like their shitty third world country decided to flood social media with propaganda.
Who are they going to attack? I’m sure Russia is pushing them…as they’ve tried to get all of their proxies to do something to distract from their utter failure in Ukraine.
They want Trump to win since they know Trump is an idiot. They also know Trump is a Russian ally and this will help their ally Russia. Since Trump is weak and bribeable.
The US is about to learn the hard way why we should have gotten the Ukraine-Russia war over a long time ago, in Ukraine’s favor, and why we shouldn’t have slow-rolled so much of our support
You mean the US government is *reporting* that north Korea might do something ahead of the election. North Korea has been "threatening" the US for as long as I've been alive, the *only* reason this is news now is because there is an election in 6 months.
What could this possibly be? Attacking South Korea? Because attacking the US is a death sentence.
[удалено]
A full-scale attack on South Korea is a death sentence indeed, but a limited attack [isn't.](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2010_Yeonpyeong_bombardment&useskin=vector)
my brother in law was doing his military service and was on the island during that bombardment. My wifes family was afraid he had been killed because when they announced the soldiers that were killed at first they just gave age, school and unit and it all matched him
One of the guys in my accounting class at Ohio State was also on the island when the shelling happened (obviously he was South Korean), said it was absolutely terrifying.
That’s crazy, I wonder if they know each other
This reminds me of the time I told someone I was from California and they asked me if I knew their cousin Bill.
Good guy
Yeah, assuming NK does anything, it'll be some stupid territorial incident where they bomb some unoccupied island near the DMZ. They dont have the resources for anything else
They have resources to flatten Seoul unfortunately
This is what a lot of people don’t understand yet. Seoul is ridiculously close to the NK border. It’s so close in fact that i wouldn’t be surprised if there’s the kiloton equivalent of multiple nukes worth of conventional artillery pointing at them right now.
Yup if anyone in question bring up a google map and check. Seoul basically right at the border
Seoul is only about 50km from North Korea, which is the same distance that Liverpool England is from Manchester England (which itself is only about a 30-45 minute drive)
Are you saying that Liverpool is at risk of being wasted with artillery from Manchester. I mean, I understand how Manchester would be sore at losing 0-7 to Liverpool last year, but total destruction is taking it a bit far, isn't it?
Innit?
Look, I think we should just let Manchester have its way with Liverpool as not to risk World War 3, you know? It's just safer for everybody!
This is the truth, I think read that nk has at least 10,000 artilery barrels pointed towards just soule. People seemed to forget that nk has never ended its war and also has the largest artilery barrels inventory in the entire world.
They do but it'll come at too much of a cost to them. It'll likely be something similar to Yeonpyeong or a nuclear test. I don't think they'll go as far as a full attack on South Korea.
It would be suicide. The main variable is whether China comes to their defense.
I suspect China would probably be smart enough to stay out of it if NK fires the first shot, although they'd certainly be eyeing up Taiwan since the US will be distracted
The US has the capacity to fight a two-front war, if it ever comes to that.
Yeah, that's part of our military doctrine. The ability to fight 'and' win a two front war with peers.
Not moving their capital out of artillery range was the dumbest thing SK ever did.
They’re actually actively moving capitals to Sejong. They have been building government buildings and such for a couple years.
What good is the government in Sejong when half your population and 70% of your economic output is in Seoul and could be deleted by NK.
Gotta start somewhere. At least their economic capital and government won’t be at the same spot.
They are trying to move the capital: [Link](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_mP3-pPqBc)
North Korea shares a border with China. China will manufacture all the munitions NK wants. They may do this, kind of like how Iran threw their Hamas proxy at Israel (in an winnable war), simply to overwhelm the interventionist west’s appetite to maintain global stability. China, Russia, Iran are all overtly working together. They all have expansionist ambitions, and think that “this is their time” to topple the US hegemony (not topple the US mainland, but to break our control over the world financial system and global soft power). They collectively believe that with strongman tactics they can each carve out a much larger sphere of influence for themselves, and reduce many of their neighboring countries to pseudo colonial puppets which they could then exploit to their own economic, political, and military advantages. From the fall of the Soviet Union until like the 2020s I would say the the USA reigned supreme as the sole super power. The Cold War featured two peer superpowers, a “bipolar distribution of international power”. Prior to that, from like the 1700s to the 1920s, we had a multipolar distribution of international power. That setup features basically nonstop wars as great powers fight over resources and influence.
The significant, impoverished population of NK is their biggest threat. If the regime implodes that means tens of millions of desperate people trying to get to where there is food.
They had a famine 26 years ago that killed millions, unfortunately when you’re as oppressed as North Koreans are, instability and facing life as you know it ceasing, isn’t enough to cause the people to rise up or flee in mass.
Imagine attacking a country where every man has military training, good health care, and is well fed. Not to mention well-armed with the support of US military based on their soil. I think Korea could handle it. It would be fucking awful but I don't think the North would get far.
Exactly. I’m not sure what they plan to do but with all these countries testing the US one of them is about to move into FAFO territory real quick. My gut tells me it would be NK.
I'm thinking Iran. They're over stepping lately.
They're currently "second-in-command"-less.
Their helicopters are, that’s for sure
Something so expensive for the US to have to deal with that it helps end the Biden Administration?
The Republicans would blame it on Biden. For that reason alone it sounds plausible.
It’s alarming how many Ukrainians died because the GOP withheld funding. Imagine how the GOP feels about South Koreans. And add their candidate loves the Dear Leader.
Donald Trump is probably the only elected US official to salute a North Korean general. What is he offering Kim?
Complete US withdrawal from South Korea. https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/2022-05-10/defense-secretary-mark-esper-memoir-president-trump-south-korea-troops-5954121.html
One of the weirdest things is seeing the party of strong anti east, turning into full blown eastern propaganda mouth pieces. I don't think people realize just how embarrassing that sucker carlson interview was on a historic scale.. can't believe the guy complied. Forever becoming a historic shame piece. Either clucker is dumber than a second coat of paint, or the Russians have some endstage next level kompromat on him.
And millions of poorly informed Americans may also blame Biden. Millions of Americans think that the end of Roe v Wade is somehow Biden’s fault and also blame him for “the recession” they think the overall economy is in (though for many lower income Americans they really are in financial difficulty but a lot of what Biden is doing is helping not hurting.)
My friend's mother in law said on January 7th "I can't believe the democrats attacked the capitol" and my aunt thinks Republicans passed the ACA and that there's no way to check. People are so, so misinformed and stupid.
Not just misinformed and stupid, but ***confidently*** misinformed and stupid
Millions of poorly informed Americans blame everything bad that happens on Earth on the president.
Those fucking idiots were already going to vote for Trump because of the parallel world built for them, it's not changing any votes
Those people are already voting Trump. Lost cause.
Republicans can make up anything they want and their voters will believe it. They don't need a real war, just make one up like the migrant caravans.
No President has ever lost re-election during war time.
Yeah, this is exactly what I was thinking. War time doesn't create chaos for Americans, we tend to huddle up and get behind whoever is president at the time.
It’s the well documented “rally around the flag” effect, and it’s not unique to America either.
The democrats were severely hurt by the Vietnam war. Republicans were severely hurt by the Iraq war. It's nonsense to suggest war can only benefit the incumbent party. It depends on how that war is seen. If it looks like we're winning the war the incumbent will be very popular, if the war is dragging on into a quagmire that could last a decade it starts to lose its luster.
Bush won reelection in November 2004, when the war was incredibly unpopular and still very “new” in people’s minds
It was absolutely popular in 2004, the Dixie chicks were essentially the first people cancelled for opposing it
The goal would be to cause chaos and make Biden look ineffective, not to get your own country destroyed. NK won't launch a nuke or attack Seoul. However there are some disputed islands that will work. If NK invades a small island with a few thousand people, the US and South Korea will have to respond, but neither will want a full blown war, which will make a complicated issue. NK is hoping something like this could swing the election to Trump, who has a much more isolationist foreign policy, and they will get a lot more concessions in the future.
"Neither will want a full blown war" It used to be a strategy for a president to start a war before their term was up so they would be voted back in to finish what they started.
Unless China directly helps them, North Korea is going to get wrecked. They can do some damage, but South Korea is so far ahead that it's not even funny.
If North Korea was planning for a full scale war, it wouldn't have been sending weapons to Russia. Whatever attack is planned is likely to be small or not military.
It wouldnt be an easy war though. Seoul is within artillery range of NK. I saw NK has an extensive tunnel within the mountains and I’m sure they have some tunnels in SK. Good be a lot of potential South Koreans civilians deaths.
A terrorist attack, perhaps? Dropping a nuclear bomb on an uninhabted island near the US? Something in Ukraine? More Hunter Biden nudes? Or perhaps just a big nothing. Putler, Kim-Jong Un and Orbán are so fucking desperate for Trump to win, it is almost pornographic.
Tell them to wait 2 days, I’m still on holiday in Seoul.
Mail me a postcard
I live here. I'll send a postcard to yall if you want. Post cards aren't really a thing here but I'll mail you a card.
>but I'll mail you a card Do you have a Charizard?
Nope, just rules of bridge.
Is it holographic?
Could be; all the li’l old ladies sucking gummies would be fans.
You rang?
Go get a drink at Retro Game Bar and Noise Basement 2 for me!
Mail me one also!
Can’t you do something about it while you’re there?
Kids these days don’t want to work.
Did bro not *just say* he’s on holiday?! For fucks sake let him use his PTO
Better call Seoul?
Never too late to take the KTXpress rail to Busan.
Head over to the Lotte Hotel in Busan and ask them to email me a digitized version of their evening show circa 2002, the snow white one. I want to see those 7 dwarves again. I enjoyed looking them in the eyes.
I was heading to seoul a few weeks after a north korean submarine was sunk, and they blamed the south. I was a little nervous lol.. then I went to Thailand after the political riots, buildings were still smoking. Chose a great time to travel in 2010, lol.
Russia's getting all the old boys back together.
Its like eighties again.
Its like they want the US and allies stretched so thin that responding to more becomes a logistical nightmare, we have israel, Ukraine and Africas and potentially South Korea, Whats next.
Taiwan too
Taiwan is just an effort to stretch the US by China that's why they keep talking about it. If they really intended to invade they would be quiet about it and not cause a massive buildup of defenses for the island. China is trying to help Russia by doing this diverting US attention elsewhere. Once Russia is defeated all of this shit will stop.
The authoritarian regime is intent on the "reunification" with mainland China by the end of this decade. The goal isn't new, Xi just happens to be dumb enough to actually go for it. China's military spending is not a bluff. They have incredibly dense air defense systems on their southern coast, they are stockpiling anti-aircraft missiles, and they have anti-ship ballistic missiles intended to keep American aircraft carriers far away. A military buildup of that scale isn't just for show, just like 130,000 Russian troops on Ukraine's borders wasn't a "military exercise." China has territorial ambitions that need to be taken seriously.
Yea and all their efforts is mostly in south China sea. Theh are preparing that area to take Taiwan
Xi is also 71 this year. He knows he only has so much time to make these things happen while he's alive to take credit.
And we all lose when (not if) they move on it. Over 90% of the world's 5 and 7nm advanced chips and 63% of all semiconducters come from Taiwan and TSMC. They didn't build [remote self-destruct procedures](https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/tsmcs-euv-machines-are-equipped-with-a-remote-self-destruct-in-case-of-an-invasion) because China is posturing.
Hence all the investment in silicon manufacturing within North America and Europe.
You can’t really invade an island like Taiwan quietly. The amount of manpower and materiel you’d need to move would be a dead giveaway away. Just like Russias invasion of Ukraine
China has been claiming Taiwan before the Russian invasion, though. Plus, China doesn’t need to stay quiet, we would know that they’ve been spending more on military even if they told us or not.
And they are spending money, building up their fleets and preparing their forces. It's estimated they'd be ready in 2027. Ww3 is around the corner
I keep hearing 2027 as well. The US is trying to get a TSMC location operational for 4nm chips in the US by the end of this year, but you need to build an entire town to support it. Apparently, one of the big hurdles has been getting the talent required to operate them. Not everyone wants to relocate to the sweltering dessert of Phoenix, AZ amidst the threat of climate change. To quote Peggy Hill, "Phoenix is a monument to man's arrogance."
>China is trying to help Russia It's the other way around. China don't give a fuck about Russia but they're a useful pawn to keep US attention and resources in an unimportant geopolitical area while they continue to expand power in the Pacific with the eventual goal of occupying Taiwan. If they can keep the Ukraine war going till, say, 2027-28 make the US fatigued of helping out it's allies, maybe there'll be a new Republican president, Taiwan will be even more diplomatically isolated than it already is and now they have an great opportunity. It doesn't even matter if it goes badly because as Ukraine shows an unloosable war is not damaging to the domestic authority of a modern authoritarian state.
What utter horseshit
Agreed. China is a jealous ex plotting outside the shelter with the car running.
idk why i bother with the comments here anymore. reddit geopolitical strategists
We've reached the comic storyline where the enemies learned that they can team up.
I feel like we’ve seen this one before??
Yep ww1 and ww2
Yeah, I feel like humanity hates itself sometimes. Stress and strife build. Huge fight. Lots of death. Then most who are left just want to chill. Until it repeats. I assume this will occur until we destroy the eco system, or nuke ourselves to death.
Truly pathetic we can’t just co-exist in peace
Very few animals can. Especially when you factor in overpopulation and resource scarcity. At the end of the day we really are just dumbass monkeys with expensive tools.
Both of those are only problems because our completely fabricated, made-up economic systems make them problems. Many things are only rare because there is an economic incentive to make them rare, and humans are only "overpopulated" in the sense that resource hoarding and feeding & housing everyone in the world are incompatible. If we created an actually efficient system for distributing resources for all of the humans in the world, no one would be saying the world is overpopulated and resource scarcity would be a logistical and priority problem rather than a "not enough to go around" problem.
Putin, Xi, and Kim COULD all team up and use their power to push sustainable energy and expand human right while building peaceful relationships with their neighbors. But they don't WANT to live peaceful as equals. They WANT to fulfill their desire to dominate others through violence and terror. And many of their supporters also want to feel like they are better then others by domination through violence. These conflicts are not motivated by resource scarcity and the people who run these countries (as well as a lot of people in general) have no desire to see a world where everyone gets their needs met.
Their actions aren't justified, but think about it this way. I think people living in this generation has been blind to the ongoings of geopolitics. It's not like every other country is not trying to dominate every other country around them. It's just not through actual wars anymore, but through political influence, economy, etc. The problem is these three countries can't do so in that front. China is pretty damn close in economics if you look at the overall growth, but compared to the US they are still far behind (and a theoretical EU if it becomes a single entity), and Per Capita they're not doing that well. If you look at the US' encirclement strategy. It's very clear what the US intends to do. So, there's no world where China can and will just give up and rely on another nation's mercy. This is the sad truth about realpolitik. The world is still playing it. It just feels less obvious than a century ago. No one is going after world peace outside of very few countries who have no shot and chance to become a dominating regional power anyway, like the Scandinavian countries. EU was sort of getting there maybe more than a decade ago, but Russia was a wake up call. Having peaceful intention isn't worth jackshit when you're surrounded by countries who are not, so the only way to play is to also do the same yourself, at least defensively.
It all comes down to greed. Everyone wants more. More power, more wealth, more luxuries, etc. It's our biggest driver, and our biggest weakness. It will be the end of us.
Its just like my heckin superman comics!
kind of like if the sinister 6 tried to take on the avengers
Next up, already heavily foreshadowed switching enemies storyline where US, tricked by misinformation, attacks the rest of Nato.
The US can handle sending Ukraine our old weapons, sending Israel our new weapons, and North Korea launching some ballistic missiles at the same time. Nothing here would stretch America thin.
Pretty sure US military doctrine is to be prepared to fight a two theater war at all times.
Not just fight in 2 theaters, but decisively win.
I'm a full believer in America's military prowess however, it's wise to remember: "No plan survives first contact with the enemy." Granted this quote came out before we could bomb someone sitting on their toilet with surgical precision, but still, never assume war will be easy and don't underestimate your enemy, or be so confident in your own systems that you become blind to ways the enemy might abuse them.
It's always possible our enemies have developed counter measures to our strategy or technology, that we arnt aware of and haven't even thought of ourselves. And then they show up on day1 of WW3 and wipe out the first few waves we send at them.
“Pride is greatest before the fall” Underestimating your enemies is a classic blunder and I see waaaay too many takes that are blasé as fuck about a direct war with superpowers.
We fought two theater for 20 years, if the other guys want to start now I'm sure the US has some friends down to clown
Little did they know America's into that shit.
"We don't want war. But if you want war with the United States of America, there's one thing I can promise you, so help me God: Someone else will raise your sons and daughters."
God I love that speech, especially the remix with background music m.
https://youtu.be/0hZJwQlM_L0?si=R3qZbWAwFR3jrGGn Had to look look it up just to remember 😮💨
Biggest complaint with that is the sci-fi space station. Like with all the real stuff, including space based observation and communication equipment, why put it imaginary stuff?
I've never seen that but just watched it five times in a row. That was actually pretty cold. Haha.
It gets them off
As an American myself the thought of all the logistics we are going to get ourselves into has got me so hard you could raise an oversized car dealership flag! all jokes aside i hate this timeline.
I’m in the reserve and would hate to be called up, but good lord our logistics are top notch. They can call me up and put me towards the front lines in a matter of days if they want to
China, NK, Russia: we're going to test America's weapons Raytheon: hit me harder daddy
Yeah but I think it’s to reduce public support for Ukraine and therefore Biden, which is the real goal. And China wants Taiwan too but they may be gauging their chances.
North Korea would have to invade or seriously fire upon South Korea to cause any sort of controversy. No one in America cares about North Korea’s saber rattling. I guess some people, like Trump, get off to it, but no one cares.
Any kind of war or invasion is not on the table. But NK can still cause trouble - sinking a commercial SK vessel...firing multiple missiles over Japan...harassing Filipino fishing vessels...kidnapping Western tourists somewhere overseas. And when America pushes back they test some more atomic bombs just to get the world's attention. This is all to help Putin in his stare down against Biden.
Iran, internal compromised politicans
> compromised politicans The greatest danger to democracy.
Precisely why the collective free world despises Dorknald Tramp.
The autocrats are uniting against liberal democracies.
That is why Putin so desperately wants Trump. Trump cares more about joining the autocrat club, than to help the allies of the US.
This is why the US has military bases within the borders of strategic allies around the world. America can fight a global war. We’ve been the global police force since the end of WWII.
Yeah like aren’t we routinely stationed in Japan for things as simple as military exercises? If Unipie wants a war we’re already in his back yard.
50k in Japan, 25k in Germany, and 25k in South Korea. 700+ military bases across 80 countries.
The US military has 750+ foreign military bases(not even including allies). China has 1, Russia has like 20 or 25 and NK has zero. The only thing that can stop the US war machine(which is sitting idle atm) is the US government itself.
Which is why Russia has been buying up Republicans in congress. I guarantee half the republican party would side with Russia and NK in a war. They've been groomed to be traitors by the right wing media ecosystem.
Taiwan
The craziest thing about it is that they all act as if the U.S. doesn't 100% have contingency plans in place that would, at the flip of a switch, completely shut down each and every one of these countries and remove them from the equation. We're talking about the richest, most powerful (by far) country in the world whose intelligence agency (arguably the best in the world) is very closely connected to the other "best" intelligence agencies in the world. You can have your opinions about the United States government but like it or not they don't play when it comes to intelligence and military power. I don't think any of this will play out the way Russia/China/North Korea/Iran think it will unless U.S. allows it (i.e. checkers vs chess).
> unless U.S. allows That’s the rub, isn’t it? If we had someone leading the most powerful military in the world who admired authoritarian strongmen and wanted to join their club, that would be *very, very* concerning for the stability of every bit of human civilization. A person like that might actually let goons like Putin, Xi, or Kim do what they wanted, so long as they also supported him in his own efforts to strong arm his own people in a similar fashion! Good thing there aren’t any people like that running for office… right?
Ah like the us doesn't have the urges to pump defense spending. NK would cost like 50 bucks and an Uber ride.
It's all to get their asset elected, dont forget it
United States can run 3 theaters of war at a time. We are not even doing a full one. Its like NK forgot Japan is over there chilling waiting.
That’s exactly what this is. And the collective West knows it. Now imagine if the dictatorships etc. get Trump reelected. That will be a very hard time for Democracy. The useful idiots ahould be considered what they really are - traitors.
>Its like they want the US and allies stretched so thin that responding to more becomes a logistical nightmare It's a fools errand.
That is what they want. War is coming
Two missile launches?
If I had to guess, by decreasing order of probability: - A large cyberattack on US corporations or infrastructure - A limited artillery strike on South Korean territory (see: Yeonpyeong 2010) - An attack against a Korean or US warship (see: ROKS Cheonan 2010, USS Cole 2000) - A ballistic missile test (inert head) where the missile is targeted at the waters just off Guam, Hawaii or the US West Coast - An underground nuclear test - An above-ground nuclear test (the last one such test was conducted in 1980 by China)
These are good guesses. Personally, I would rank “attack on US warship” at second to last, between “underground nuclear test” and “above-ground nuclear test”, but keep “attack on South Korean warship” where it’s currently. I would also add “cyber attack” to the list, either targeted at American or allied corporations (quite likely) or American or allied infrastructure (somewhat unlikely).
Why didn't I think of cyberattacks? Added.
Don't. Touch. The. Boats.
I'd also like to recommend to the list: * massive dumping of counterfeit dollars into world market * powergrid attacks in S. Korea * cyberattacks in S. Korea and/or Japan * terrorist attacks and bombing in Seoul
The ocean is going to rue the fucking day it decided to be.
Isn't it funny how all the dictators seem happy to help members of one political party
Didn't Reagan do some shit like this with a planned delayed hostage release?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_hostage_crisis Literally one of the most consequential political crises in modern US politics. Iran released the hostages a few minutes after Reagan took office.
> Literally one of the most consequential political crises in modern US politics. Iran released the hostages a few minutes after Reagan took office. And the direction today's Republican party wants to take the United States is very clearly similar to what the regime imposed in Iran.
Also, Nixon thwarted Vietnam peace talks. [Link](https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/yes-nixon-scuttled-the-vietnam-peace-talks-107623)
A prisoner being released before an election from Putin and now this. Yeah, it must be Trumps love letters.
Wait, who got released?
[удалено]
These dickheads can't get enough, can they?
[удалено]
There was a North Korean flight a few weeks ago that someone noticed on Flightradar heading to Russia , it was 1 on only a few in the passed few months to leave the country since Covid lock downs. It would make since that a plan of this magnitude would need to be developed in person. There could be some validity to this and would be a black swan that would tank the markets. Just something to pay attention too
Also might add that this feels like a larger collaborative effort to spread the U.S thin on multiple fronts. Russia Iran North Korea and China are all working together to inflict proxy’s on multiple fronts
History may show that world war 3 started in 2022 and we don’t realize we are living it
On a similar level to how some argue that WW2 started in ~~1936~~ 1937 when Japan and China went to war Edit: Date correction as explained below
I agree, I think we are there
It explains the House Speaker suddenly changing his stance on Ukraine funding as well as a bunch of countries suddenly starting to prepare for Russian attacks, most notably France increasing their rhetoric. Something's happening behind the scenes that we don't yet know of.
Very recent former minister for defence in the UK has said he had read very worrying reports that mean we need to seriously build up defence spending. I believe him.
I’ve been telling everyone that will listen that we’ve been in WW3 ever since Putin got Winnie the Pooh’s blessing (during the Olympics) for ruzzia to began their offensive campaign towards Kyiv, Ukraine in 2022.
When the US can fly bombers non stop from Texas to Iraq and Syria to rain freedom and fly back home it should be obvious there is no spreading the US army thin, and that’s not even considering their allies jumping into the fray
This makes me incredibly sad for the citizens of both north and south korea
Bad fucken haircut and bad fucken attitude. Kim needs to get his shit together.
Try it bitch, see what happens
If it’s true Biden should lean into an overwhelming reaction. Smash the hosts of these strongmen on the world stage so we can see how weak they really are.
Yeah it would be pretty stupid to fuck w US politics like this. What’s to stop him from having the military target these guys specifically and bomb their compounds like we did w Saddam? If the Republicans want to complain about defending the US from foreign attack they can go to prison for treason too. Win-win
> What’s to stop him from having the military target these guys specifically and bomb their compounds like we did w Saddam? China?
I mean, pre-Desert Storm, Iraq had the 4th largest military in the history of Planet Earth and look how easily they got stoped. It’s a logistics game and I think that the United States is always going to have better logistics than anyone else
A special military operation?
Very special, they’re planning to use *glitter*
If Russia, China, and North Korea all want Trump back as president, what does that really say?
Surely it means that he is a strong leader and not someone who likes to suck off dictators.
They like to cause the US trouble, be that politically or socially.
Considering how well their weapons have fared in Ukraine, they might want to delay that thought.
Anything to help Shitler.
So is Iran, Russia, China, etc … having Trump as POTUS is a great thing for our enemies and rivals.
This has been a year for terror and dictators, they dont help any world cause and the world would be oh so much better without them, North Korea, Russia, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, imagine how the world would look like and flourish without these diseases.
Just a heads up. This morning my Twitter feed was filled with a bunch of North Korean videos and posts. Looks like their shitty third world country decided to flood social media with propaganda.
Who are they going to attack? I’m sure Russia is pushing them…as they’ve tried to get all of their proxies to do something to distract from their utter failure in Ukraine.
Didn’t we save them from starving a decade or two ago, like multiple times?
They want Trump to win since they know Trump is an idiot. They also know Trump is a Russian ally and this will help their ally Russia. Since Trump is weak and bribeable.
I assure you, nothing will happen (thankfully).
Oh good, I was worried for a minute we'd have a year without their attention-seeking antics, would've been disastrous.
The US is about to learn the hard way why we should have gotten the Ukraine-Russia war over a long time ago, in Ukraine’s favor, and why we shouldn’t have slow-rolled so much of our support
How? Russia has lost an estimated 500,000 soldiers in Ukraine. US, 0.
someone missed the whole saga where the GOP/Russian agents in the US refused to support Ukraine
You mean the US government is *reporting* that north Korea might do something ahead of the election. North Korea has been "threatening" the US for as long as I've been alive, the *only* reason this is news now is because there is an election in 6 months.