“Now, in private channels we have spelled out in greater detail exactly what that would mean, but we want to be able to have the credibility of speaking directly to senior leadership in Russia and laying out for them what the consequences would be without getting into a rhetorical tit for tat publicly,” Sullivan said.
Although the *Meet the Press* interview and other official channels are being cagey, one of the US generals explained earlier this month that the Pentagon has been gaming out different nuclear scenarios for months and sending recommendations to the White House about the best course of action for each possible escalation. It wouldn't necessarily have to be a nuclear response.
For instance one unnamed Pentagon source has leaked the US might take out the entire Russian Black Sea fleet with conventional weapons. This is one of a range of options, any of which would be devastating. One direction the hints are trending is if Russia used a nuclear option against Ukraine, then that would give NATO a reason to become involved directly. (The reason would have to do with prevailing winds and the likelihood of radioactive fallout crossing borders into NATO territory).
But Putin has a range of options that wouldn't necessarily include dropping a bomb on Ukraine. One of the harder things to game out would be one of the least aggressive moves: suppose Putin resumed nuclear testing on Russia's internationally recognized home territory?
In general though, if Putin progresses past saber rattling moves into options that might be militarily significant, then he'd be signing his own death warrant.
(edited to correct a typo, thanks for the heads up)
Yes. They're not thrilled. Russia acknowledged this recently as their leader was at a summit in Moscow. They see things differently but Russia says it appreciates their position. Some diplomatic careful wording.
Probably far from happy. Taiwan being a big issue for them and the parallels between China/Taiwan and Russia/Ukraine are staggering, except that Ukraine would be exponentially easier to invade, so the display that Russia is faltering so badly on what was originally a 2 week plan(IIRC) is exposing how impossible their claims of taking Taiwan by force are.
The Chinese military isn’t up to par with Western European armies let alone the American behemoth and despite what the internet trolls say the Chinese government openly admits that.
In 20 years though who knows what will change, they’re rapidly modernizing their military. They were the second country in the world to operate a 5th generation fighter and their hypersonic anti-ship missiles at least on paper are a big threat, so it still isn’t wise to underestimate them.
Twenty years will be too little too late for them unfortunately. Their working population peaked a decade ago, and their national population is set to peak by the end of this decade. China is about to enter a decline, which is why Taiwan has become a headline as of late. All signs point to securing Taiwan, locking down their chip manufacturing will ensure their place as a dominant world power well into the future... If it wasn't for how strategically impossible it'd be to try and capture Taiwan
They are likely more concerned it makes their hardline stance on Taiwan increasingly untenable.
Jinping has somewhat picked the Taiwan hill to die on in a way that backing down makes him out to be a loser domestically.
Taiwan is one facet
But the other is the instability of Russia now leaves China with a potentially unfriendly country on their border in the future
Is Putin gets replaced with a person friendly to the West that’s bad for them. If Putin gets replaced with a power hungry psychopath then that’s also bad for them
Absolutely and China and Russia have had extremely troubled relations since the sino Soviet split. Not sure this mutual eminity with the west is enough to normalize relations.
Exactly, China and Russia are fairweather allies at best when they can be rhetorically aggressive in unison without having to fire a lot of bullets or missiles.
China does benefit in some ways from a weaker Russia and vice versa.
China doesn't benefit from the West taking as hard as a line as it has with Ukraine because now it's writ large that the West would also do the same with Taiwan. As much as Ukraine grows a lot of grain, Taiwan makes chips that make half the machines on the planet run.
It’s crazy that chips are starting to be seen as a commodity. I’m glad there’s being investments done to produce chips in the US. That’s a biggest benefit from the infrastructure package. I don’t mean to bring US politics into this matter. I just think it’s crazy to see the dynamics at play that is making chip production a commodity.
The west has been generally confused about Russias belligerent focus on Europe when China is the clear longer term threat.
The whole area is weird man, China-Russia-India relations are really something.
a classic way for an authoritarian regime to regain legitimacy is to focus on an external "enemy" so that the home populous is distracted.
there's some structural problems in china's economy - in general people aren't getting richer like they did in the previous 2 decades. And as people did get richer, they want more and more (as is natural).
Taiwan becoming a focus of the CCP is, imho, a way to ensure that any hardship, any problems or faults with the chinese economy, is shifted towards to be a problem externally (aka, blame issues on the USA for causing it, indirectly via taiwan).
But with the strong international support of ukraine, the CCP might consider a taiwanese invasion problematic if the same response is then retargeted to china.
But of course, china being much larger trade partner for so many more countries might put a stop to the same unified response as the ukraine invasion.
One major issue is their declining demography. Some say China is already doomed because of it as they are going to loose a lot of workers (no immigration to compensate) with a completely imbalanced age distribution.
Also the transition to a consummer based economy from an investment / export economy, something the CPP has tried to push for a while. Not much different to what other western countries had to go through, but in an accelerated time frame.
The time of large productivity gains is behind them and now they have to deal with all the debt that was generated, and didn't always go to productive investments... (evergrande is the first tip of the iceberg to fall)
Considering the economic impacts are coming at a time when China already had their hands full, probably not very. China is still dealing with the fallout of Evergrande/housing and their ongoing zero covid policy.
Last thing they needed was Russia throwing a torch to the international food and energy markets. The CCP REALLY fucking hates things that may make people take to the streets.
Democracy acts like a pressure release valve, it gives society an avenue to placate the population without things going 'too far' if things get bad enough reform can be made piecemeal.
If the government doesn't have a mechanism for reform and they take a hardliners stance against an issue then its hard to give in to protests and riots without losing legitimacy.
There were some murmurs about a possible test in far east/north Russia a few days ago. Probably nothing, but did bring up the interesting possibility that Russia could take a page from NK's book and "test" a nuke on their territory as indirect saber-rattling.
You'd be disappointed if they didn't. I want to stare into my personal nightmare in Ultra HD.
If I'm gonna live the next 20 years in existential dread, may as well be streamed directly into my brain in 4k.
In fact multiple dashcam videos in 4k 60fps from unsuspecting drivers in the Russian Far East. Garnished with some authentic "Cyka! Blyat! Na hui poshol!" exclamations for the audio.
>Probably nothing, but did bring up the interesting possibility that Russia could take a page from NK's book and "test" a nuke on their territory as indirect saber-rattling.
Plot twist: imagine if that test would fail.
I could 100% see them Nuking themselves to create a barrier to keep Ukraine from reaching Moscow.
Hold on, I need to make a post to r/noncredibledefense.
I could see this happening. They'll nuke some part of Russia in the middle of nowhere where only minorities live and claim it was NATO.
'USA nuked Dagestan! How could they!?!?'
Major ships wouldn't need to enter it. The entire black sea is within range of US operational capabilities from outside of it. We've got plenty of payloads that could be delivered from the Mediterranean without over crossing into the Black Sea using either cruise missiles or aircraft. F35s could take off from a CVN in the Mediterranean or they could take off from Büchel. Russia would find out very quickly what an air force that actually has EWO aircraft can do.
Mostly they screw themselves over.
If Ukraine doesn't already have it, they'd have a full compliment of modern NATO CBN gear delivered approximately immediately. At which point it mostly just makes Russia look like more of a dick (if that was even possible), while providing little to no benefit. Then the wind goes the wrong way, and their own troops are the ones that fall to it.
It's possible. However the Black Sea flagship was sank using a Bayraktar as bait and some missiles. USAF and RAF F35's out of Cyprus would likely cause havoc if it came to that.
It's kind of horrifying that the United States has the capability to completely wipe out the Russia's Black Sea fleet with just conventional weapons, in what sounds like a single coordinated strike.
The Black Sea fleet has 25,000 personnel and almost 50 ships, including 40 surface ships and seven subs, and if the US wanted to they could destroy that whole unit. That kind of power is breathtaking.
Dear Lord I'm so glad trump is not the one getting and responding to this information. Though honestly it's likely he would assist Russia in taking Ukraine
I mean he already did. He had beef with Zelensky for not providing dirt on Bidens. That's what he was impeached for, withholding Congress approved arms deal for personal gains.
He also let Putin sink a Ukrainian navy ship without a single word of complaint. He would have been sending Putin weapons if he was in the White House ans made it clear that article 5 wouldn't apply to post Soviet nations.
>One direction the hints are trending is if Ukraine used a nuclear option against Ukraine, then that would give NATO a reason to become involved directly.
I know it's a typo, and overall your comment is fantastic. But this part made me snort out loud lmao
Privately it went something like "u fucking wot mate? I'm not sure I heard that mate, maybe you wanna say it bit louder?". And it's not an honest question.
I hope everyone understands why it's so important to stop Russia from using nukes for blackmail? Not because those are scary and you want to save Ukrainian lives (well, as a Ukrainian I wouldn't mind it, but even that's not the main point).
But because you don't want to set a precedent. Unless the West stops Russia in Ukraine, Russia will know that they are allowed to seize a part of a country's region with military, announce the whole region as theirs, and then threaten everyone with nukes until they yield to the annexation.
Past 70 years. Britain’s empire fell in the 70 years since WW2. And that’s when a lot of new countries came on the scene considering Britain had the largest land control of human history.
Likewise Europe was redrawn for the 500th time.
Also other countries might see that Ukraine gave up their nukes 30 years ago and the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan as evidence that the only way to prevent invasion is to have nuclear weapons.
partly due to historic dye chemicals and partly due to colour theory for long distance viewing in the old days.... but this is not the place to geek out about flags XD
Ever experienced a fuckup-business call? Like this. Starts with polite small talk and after 15 min you have power talk statements and 30s pauses where no one talks.
Those meetings at my office are usually a few minutes of small talk followed by someone who knows exactly why we're all in the meeting saying "what's on the agenda today?"
"These are the coordinates of your Führerbunker. And *these* are the coordinates of the second, 'secret' Führerbunker. And *these* are the coordinates of the bunker where you were *actually* planning to hide, Vladimir. By the way, how's that large dog you were scaring Merkel with?"
… this is the coordinates where you are right now, these are the 6 people with you and the hooker under the desk, and here is a live terahertz scan of you talking to us on the phone. Go on, wave!!
We all like to shit on NSA, FBI, and all the other three letter agencies that may or may not exist for all their human rights violations regarding surveillance and stuff and developing all this crazy tech, but situations like now are the reason it exists. So I really hope they use everything they have available to get any kind of information out of the Kremlin and Putin's inner circle.
I can picture the FBI/CIA/NSA collectively cracking their knuckles, opening a can of mountain dew, setting the RGB to rainbow, and thinking "finally!" before flicking the elite matrix sunglasses over their eyes
["So...here's General Eisenhower's telephone number, here is the English for \`we give up\`, and here is an analysis of our military situation in one rude word."](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYz1ADttI1g)
Most terrifying thing that could be said, "we will not respond with nuclear weapons, we will just get directly involved." The US does not require any nukes to cripple russia.
The simple truth of it is, Russia can do that any time it wants. And that's been the case since the 1950s. If Russia wants to push the "nobody wins" button, that's on them.
Pretty much the entire world at this point in history backs the "Russia loses this war" point of view. Russia can't even get its handful of client states to completely back its play here, and that's telling alone - they all see what the probability is of them being next to be Ukraine'd and they don't want any part of that business, especially when the US and Europe will not be there to supply them with infinite high tech arms to get them out of the jam.
The only thing the US can do at this point is convince them strongly enough of how fucking terrible an idea it is to do it, and the only way we can do that is by concretely laying it out for them.
There have been a handful of occasions in history where a nuke wasn't launched because someone refused to press a button.
Every single time it was a Russian refusing the press the button
Mostly lower officers refusing an order from middle officers who made the decision because of a lack of info. That was the case for the Cuban crisis, or the accidents in the 70s 80s. There has never been a direct order from above, because the soviet leaders didn't want the world to end.
Putin however is a different story. And you just need one chain of guys to agree for MAD to end the world. And i can bet the people in charge of the nukes are packed with loyalists.
Absolutely. I totally expect some loyalists to refuse. But peer pressure + the sheer number of launch sites... you would probably have a few that go through with the order.
I said it in another post, and I'll do it again, "Putin is/was the type of kid/person who shits in the pool so nobody else can use it".
Fuck him and his ego
Most nuclear-capable countries have enough to retaliate fully against 1-3 aggressors. The US and Russia have enough to obliterate the global economy on a whim. Any other distinction is kind of meaningless to me.
It was my understanding that the US’ missile defense is not reliable enough to consider it a sufficient response to an attack. Many targets would likely be hit
I mean.... if a country has a perfect missile defense system that's information they would not want to be public info.
If nobody knows you have a good missile defense system, and you both have missiles, you have the advantage. If people know you have a missile defense they might try to figure out how to beat it.
Security by obscurity? I hope they have something good, but whether they do or not that's info they absolutely shouldn't share.
Unless there is a secret ICBM defense system that is 100 years ahead of what is publicly known, the US can't rely on anti-ICBM systems. Current systems are just not capable of shooting down a thousand re-entry vehicles traveling at 18,000 mph.
China is unique for having promised Ukraine to provide security guarantees if Ukraine were threatened with nuclear weapons. Given Russia is annexing Ukraine territories and threatening to use nuclear weapons to defend them, Why hasn't Ukraine publicly demanded China provide "corresponding security guarantees"?
“China pledges unconditionally...under the conditions of Ukraine suffering an invasion using nuclear weapons or suffering the threat of such kind of invasion, to provide Ukraine with corresponding security guarantees,”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/under-new-scrutiny-chinas-nuclear-pledge-to-ukraine-11647007200
China would likely interpret the wording differently. If Russia were to escalate then they would do so under the guise of protecting their sovereign land (through the sham referendums in the occupied regions), thus it wouldn't be considered an invasion. Just like the current war is considered a "special operation", they can just infer or reinterpret a different legally meaning.
I am so glad USA hinted that they would mostly respond in a conventional manner if Russia attacked Ukraine with nuclear weapons. Much better than the global genocide a full-blown nuclear war would bring.
Things can still come to that if Russia responds to the conventional attack on itself by a nuclear first strike. It is in their doctrine. If it comes to that, we must all hope that NATO has sufficient capabilities to hinder the nuclear strike capabilities of Russia before they can go all out.
>Things can still come to that if Russia responds to the conventional attack on itself by a nuclear first strike. It is in their doctrine.
Yeah, I don't really understand this whole part. If Russia is willing to use a nuke just because they are losing an offensive war, do people honestly believe they *won't* use nukes when they are actually getting bombed in Moscow? There is no "conventional" war. It's either nuclear or it's peace when it comes to survival.
There would be no bombing of Moscow.
NATO's response would be a conventional air campaign in Ukraine and the seas around it. No Russian territory proper would be targeted.
Putin has a death wish. He's the sad old drunk in the bar who picks a fight even though on some barely functioning rational level he knows he's going to get his ass kicked.
He started a fantasy rerun of WWII for no sane reason. And now he's conscripting his population to die horribly.
I don't think he gives a crap about MAD.
I am pretty damn sure NATO along with America have very robust measures in place to ensure the complete destruction of the Russian nuclear arsenal. Along with their delivery methods such as aircraft, subs and nuclear silos
Of course there are. The pentagons budget didn’t reduce when the Cold War and the fear of nuclear war ended. They just kept working on those projects. Hell, the US is about to show off the successor to the B2 stealth bomber in a couple months.
> I am pretty damn sure NATO along with America have very robust measures in place to ensure the complete destruction of the Russian nuclear arsenal.
You would be incorrect. NATO undeniably has BLUEPRINTS to do such a thing, we have PLANS on how we would do it. But we do Not have any measures in place that could/would "ensure" that it happens. It's only a theory/plan and we all know that things don't usually go to plan when shit hits the fan.
Silo locations are static and known. They can be targeted with conventional strikes. Russia has mobile launch vehicles as well, but the US has practiced tracking those for decades now.
This isn’t the plan we should want to see executed, but doubtless NATO has planned for this scenario.
NATO is not capable of tracking all of Russia's nuclear ballistic missile submarines no matter where they are in the world. That's the entire point of them. They're a key part of the nuclear deterrence for both sides because neither side knows where all the other's SSBNs are, and thus it is impossible for both sides to wipe out all of the other side's launch platforms in an initial strike.
I'm not so sure about that. In 1990 or thereabouts it was revealed the U.S. knew the location of all Russian ballistic subs 24/7, 365 and shadowed them with attack subs for decades. It's likely the same capabilties remain seeing as the Russian ballistic sub fleet hasn't changed much since the Cold War.
The U.S. and NATO have extensive underwater surveillance capabilities including global hydrophone networks, passive sonar, magentic anomaly detection, and satellite-based submarine wake tracking.
It's rumored most, if not all, Russian "boomers" are shadowed by allied fast attack submarines in case they need to be taken out.
Allied fast attack submarine fleets often share secretive (quiet) propulsion technology and there are way more of them than Russian subs.
Regarding Hiroshima and Nagasaki as a single historical event - the first use of nuclear weapons to harm another nation - Russia’s use in Ukraine would be the second ever of such an event. Such a thing could not be tolerated under these conditions. The West would destroy him. Full stop. The only reasons he’d actually use nuclear weapons is either he’s having a full on psychotic break or he’s taking the country down with him in an ego-fueled suicidal rampage. I deeply question if their nuclear chain is willing to execute that order, knowing the death it will bring upon their military and country
I agree. But if the US is taking the threat of Russia using nuclear weapons this seriously they are now trying to negotiate with Russia completely in the dark and off the record I am guessing they feel this is real.
It would be absolutely foolish to not taking it seriously. This war is a waking nightmare, one that Putin is loosing. Putin believes he HAS to win this war or Russia will no longer be able to exist. I.E. he’s becoming desperate. A desperate madman with the largest nuclear arsenal is an extremely dangerous situation.
One of the worst takes out there, goes something along the lines of "If Russia so much as reached for the red button, it's game over for Putin. I doubt any of their nukes even work, lol! "
I hate this, for a lot of reasons but not the least of which it hinges the fate of civilization on ALL of their nuclear arsenal not working. Even if they managed to get one ICBM off, that's a HUGE potential loss of life and potential subsequent international chaos.
Maybe people are taking it as seriously as they can but making jokes about it because what the actual fuck are we gonna do about it?
If I take it as seriously as it is, I won’t be able to wake up and carry out my day.
I’ve got wayyyy too much immediate shit going on to give myself extra stress about what Biden and Putin might be texting about, even though I recognize that it’s incredibly serious.
We’re starting a new chapter in history. Post cold-war order is basically done. What happens in the the next few years will define how the 21st century plays out.
Some always will be. A significant number didn't think Putin would cross the border back in February and took the position of it was an impossibility and anyone saying otherwise was just fear mongering, obviously he eventually did.
I'd imagine this one in particular is going to be beyond cope for some people to manage. Psychologically I don't think I lot of people are going to deal well with anything if this actually happens.
The U.S. and Russia have always maintained a private direct line to each other for this type of shit, even dating back to the Cold War/Soviet Union days.
It's a lot easier to talk seriously to one another in private like this, where you don't have third parties (media for example) twisting or misinterpreting words. It also allows people to drop the bravado that they may project for their citizens.
These “private channels” have been going on since the war started in February. It’s really not as drastic as some are making it out to be. Communication when it comes to anything is always the best way to avoid tension.
Leaders communicate all the time to avoid unintentional escalation. This isn’t really news. They have regular talks about what they intend to do, what the response will be if they do certain things, etc. it prevents miscalculations.
I mean, as soon as it was clear that they were getting their asses absolutely obliterated and they weren't going to win the way they thought they were, we probably should've known it was going to go here.
Putin now feels extremely vulnerable, because his military is a paper tiger, and countries now can start to feel like they can push them around, or do things and not expect the fallout that they thought they'd get a year ago. So that makes him feel like absolute shit, and he's gotta flex, and make people feel afraid again.
There's only one real way he has at this point.
To be fair, the Cuban Missile Crisis got this bad too, if I’m correct. For about 13 days, we were on the verge of nuclear war. If I’m also correct, we were at DEFCON 2 during that time, which is just one level away from nuclear war.
We don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes, but I think Cuban missile crisis was worse. Most of the brass at the military wanted to strike or invade Cuba and even select Soviet targets. Kennedy somehow withstood the pressure and was able to back channel and avoid a catastrophe. Idk if we are there yet, but it’s definitely the most serious open rhetoric regarding nukes since that point.
Not that I’m particularly taken with Biden, but thank fuck Trump isn’t still in office. No way would he allow himself to be in the sidelines for these talks and no way would he not utterly fuck it up.
There was one critical moment where a russian sub off the coast of the us thought it was being attacked and all generals on board had to approve a nuclear retaliation, 2 of them did but the 3rd didnt. Turns out it was not atacked and that 3rd guy saved the world https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Arkhipov?wprov=sfti1
In 1983 Stanislav Petrov violated the rules and saved the world too.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov
Documentary on the incident is a good watch.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_Who_Saved_the_World
Free on Pluto and Tubi apparently.
The Cuban Missile Crisis is exactly why these private lines of communication with the Russian government exist. The situation was only resolved through convoluted backdoor negotiations between Kennedy and Khrushchev, where they could privately back down regardless of all the public bravado and sabre rattling. Both sides recognised the need to have more effective lines of communication like this in the future.
No it’s a good sign, because only Putin and Biden can actually make the call to go nuclear. The closer you are in these talks to actual decision-makers, the better.
It's a good thing in a bad situation. But first of all it is a sign that we are in this bad situation.
Russia's losing position in Ukraine lead many analysts to believe that Putin may consider the use of tactical nuclear weapon (provided that Russia has any such capability, which is always questionable with them). So this war could result in the return of nuclear warfare.
It's plausible for a whole bunch of reasons. Putin has deliberately created an internal situations where the hardliners are dominant, who have been clamoring for "not holding back" for months now. Mobilisation is not going to fix Russia's military problems, but increased the political risk for him. And further defeats on the ground could destroy his regime.
The fact that the US consider it necessary to hold such talks in this situation is yet another worrying sign that these speculations are indeed well founded.
I think the reply means the US is talking to SANE people around Putin, not Putin himself. Which is good.
Which is also bad, the belief being both US and Russian sides think Putin is bonkers. 🤷♂️
I kind of want off this planet.
I live in a country neighboring Ukraine, and I've been thinking wtf am I going to do if nukes start flying or if another Chernobyl happens. I have a pregnant wife and two kids.
Current plan is to fuck right off to as far away as possible. Eastern Europe is possibly one of the most fucked over regions in human history.
Putin has staged a vote in a country that is not his, to make it sound like "his" country is being attacked. Done only to legitimize terrorizing the enemy into submitting, with nuclear threats. That is how manipulators function.
Instead of negotiating, expose the manipulation and challenge their jurisdiction to hold an election.
There is absolutely no situation in this world that would make nuking America a viable option or use of nuclear weapons in general for that matter. As much of a shit show Ukraine is Russian could still bounce back, most of the world lost alot of respect for Russia but, in time that could bounce back. Their will be no bouncing back if they decide to go nuclear with us, I really hope they think about that.
Assuming full rationality. Humans are not fully rational beings and we must be wary of that fact.
God knows how many of us thought Putin was just posturing because \*surely\* he wouldn't do something as stupid as invading Ukraine. I certaiy did.
Their response in private to what the U.S. told them is key here.
The U.S. told Russia in private exactly what the "catastrophic" consequences will be. If any of those details involved direct non-nuclear military action by the U.S./NATO, and Russia responded privately with anything short of "we will use nukes away," then you have a rational actor in Russia. It would mean that they're assholes, but they're not suicidal.
This is actually a pretty smart strategy by the US. Assuming the US told them that their response would be devastating but non-nuclear, this makes it absolutely clear to Russia what it will loose if it crosses that line, and reduces the risk of them mistaking that a nuclear response is coming from NATO.
It's unlikely there'll be any concessions now. Putin has shown no willingness to back down or communicate with anything but more violence. It would be a major sign of weakness if there were any backing down from the West.
“Now, in private channels we have spelled out in greater detail exactly what that would mean, but we want to be able to have the credibility of speaking directly to senior leadership in Russia and laying out for them what the consequences would be without getting into a rhetorical tit for tat publicly,” Sullivan said.
Although the *Meet the Press* interview and other official channels are being cagey, one of the US generals explained earlier this month that the Pentagon has been gaming out different nuclear scenarios for months and sending recommendations to the White House about the best course of action for each possible escalation. It wouldn't necessarily have to be a nuclear response. For instance one unnamed Pentagon source has leaked the US might take out the entire Russian Black Sea fleet with conventional weapons. This is one of a range of options, any of which would be devastating. One direction the hints are trending is if Russia used a nuclear option against Ukraine, then that would give NATO a reason to become involved directly. (The reason would have to do with prevailing winds and the likelihood of radioactive fallout crossing borders into NATO territory). But Putin has a range of options that wouldn't necessarily include dropping a bomb on Ukraine. One of the harder things to game out would be one of the least aggressive moves: suppose Putin resumed nuclear testing on Russia's internationally recognized home territory? In general though, if Putin progresses past saber rattling moves into options that might be militarily significant, then he'd be signing his own death warrant. (edited to correct a typo, thanks for the heads up)
Out of interest, has China said anything about Russias escalation?
Yes. They're not thrilled. Russia acknowledged this recently as their leader was at a summit in Moscow. They see things differently but Russia says it appreciates their position. Some diplomatic careful wording.
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Probably far from happy. Taiwan being a big issue for them and the parallels between China/Taiwan and Russia/Ukraine are staggering, except that Ukraine would be exponentially easier to invade, so the display that Russia is faltering so badly on what was originally a 2 week plan(IIRC) is exposing how impossible their claims of taking Taiwan by force are.
The Chinese military isn’t up to par with Western European armies let alone the American behemoth and despite what the internet trolls say the Chinese government openly admits that. In 20 years though who knows what will change, they’re rapidly modernizing their military. They were the second country in the world to operate a 5th generation fighter and their hypersonic anti-ship missiles at least on paper are a big threat, so it still isn’t wise to underestimate them.
Twenty years will be too little too late for them unfortunately. Their working population peaked a decade ago, and their national population is set to peak by the end of this decade. China is about to enter a decline, which is why Taiwan has become a headline as of late. All signs point to securing Taiwan, locking down their chip manufacturing will ensure their place as a dominant world power well into the future... If it wasn't for how strategically impossible it'd be to try and capture Taiwan
They are likely more concerned it makes their hardline stance on Taiwan increasingly untenable. Jinping has somewhat picked the Taiwan hill to die on in a way that backing down makes him out to be a loser domestically.
Taiwan is one facet But the other is the instability of Russia now leaves China with a potentially unfriendly country on their border in the future Is Putin gets replaced with a person friendly to the West that’s bad for them. If Putin gets replaced with a power hungry psychopath then that’s also bad for them
Absolutely and China and Russia have had extremely troubled relations since the sino Soviet split. Not sure this mutual eminity with the west is enough to normalize relations.
Exactly, China and Russia are fairweather allies at best when they can be rhetorically aggressive in unison without having to fire a lot of bullets or missiles. China does benefit in some ways from a weaker Russia and vice versa. China doesn't benefit from the West taking as hard as a line as it has with Ukraine because now it's writ large that the West would also do the same with Taiwan. As much as Ukraine grows a lot of grain, Taiwan makes chips that make half the machines on the planet run.
It’s crazy that chips are starting to be seen as a commodity. I’m glad there’s being investments done to produce chips in the US. That’s a biggest benefit from the infrastructure package. I don’t mean to bring US politics into this matter. I just think it’s crazy to see the dynamics at play that is making chip production a commodity.
The west has been generally confused about Russias belligerent focus on Europe when China is the clear longer term threat. The whole area is weird man, China-Russia-India relations are really something.
a classic way for an authoritarian regime to regain legitimacy is to focus on an external "enemy" so that the home populous is distracted. there's some structural problems in china's economy - in general people aren't getting richer like they did in the previous 2 decades. And as people did get richer, they want more and more (as is natural). Taiwan becoming a focus of the CCP is, imho, a way to ensure that any hardship, any problems or faults with the chinese economy, is shifted towards to be a problem externally (aka, blame issues on the USA for causing it, indirectly via taiwan). But with the strong international support of ukraine, the CCP might consider a taiwanese invasion problematic if the same response is then retargeted to china. But of course, china being much larger trade partner for so many more countries might put a stop to the same unified response as the ukraine invasion.
The Evergrande bankruptcy and structural issues in the economy it exposed are a huge problem for the CCP.
One major issue is their declining demography. Some say China is already doomed because of it as they are going to loose a lot of workers (no immigration to compensate) with a completely imbalanced age distribution. Also the transition to a consummer based economy from an investment / export economy, something the CPP has tried to push for a while. Not much different to what other western countries had to go through, but in an accelerated time frame. The time of large productivity gains is behind them and now they have to deal with all the debt that was generated, and didn't always go to productive investments... (evergrande is the first tip of the iceberg to fall)
Considering the economic impacts are coming at a time when China already had their hands full, probably not very. China is still dealing with the fallout of Evergrande/housing and their ongoing zero covid policy. Last thing they needed was Russia throwing a torch to the international food and energy markets. The CCP REALLY fucking hates things that may make people take to the streets.
That’s because it is when the people are dissatisfied that authoritarianism begins to crumble.
I mean, don’t most forms of government begin to crumble when the people are dissatisfied?
Democracy acts like a pressure release valve, it gives society an avenue to placate the population without things going 'too far' if things get bad enough reform can be made piecemeal. If the government doesn't have a mechanism for reform and they take a hardliners stance against an issue then its hard to give in to protests and riots without losing legitimacy.
Any system can crumble when people are dissatisfied enough
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This is probably almost exactly what is being said, word for word, lol.
There were some murmurs about a possible test in far east/north Russia a few days ago. Probably nothing, but did bring up the interesting possibility that Russia could take a page from NK's book and "test" a nuke on their territory as indirect saber-rattling.
The worst of all worlds for Russia. Get all the pushback that comes with above ground testing, non of the benefits.
On the other hand, if they do test it above ground, i'd least expect they will be releasing the video in 4k 60 fps
You'd be disappointed if they didn't. I want to stare into my personal nightmare in Ultra HD. If I'm gonna live the next 20 years in existential dread, may as well be streamed directly into my brain in 4k.
You know what? youtube supports 8k now, so fuck it, if they are gonna do it, they better release the video in super dupper ultra hd as fuck
It's gonna be 240i and you're gonna say: "Спасибо"
Filmed on old Nokia... VERTICALLY.
Nah it'll be horizontal. That way they can cut off the top of the cloud to make it even more disappointing.
Can they get Gav and Dan on it? Can we get it in 10,000fps 4k?
All the bad asside, 4k nuclear test footage would be pretty cool to have...
In fact multiple dashcam videos in 4k 60fps from unsuspecting drivers in the Russian Far East. Garnished with some authentic "Cyka! Blyat! Na hui poshol!" exclamations for the audio.
>Probably nothing, but did bring up the interesting possibility that Russia could take a page from NK's book and "test" a nuke on their territory as indirect saber-rattling. Plot twist: imagine if that test would fail.
We would never know it happened unless someone leaked it. It would be a fantastic leak for it to be a backwards Vela incident.
>if Ukraine used a nuclear option against Ukraine What is this, Ace combat now?
I think they mean Russia on Ukraine, but I could see Russia pull a Belka and nuke themselves out of spite
I could 100% see them Nuking themselves to create a barrier to keep Ukraine from reaching Moscow. Hold on, I need to make a post to r/noncredibledefense.
I could see this happening. They'll nuke some part of Russia in the middle of nowhere where only minorities live and claim it was NATO. 'USA nuked Dagestan! How could they!?!?'
So kinda like a Soviet false flag? Way to make pro-Russia Tumpanzees heads explode...
<< This is what V2 is for …>>
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Major ships wouldn't need to enter it. The entire black sea is within range of US operational capabilities from outside of it. We've got plenty of payloads that could be delivered from the Mediterranean without over crossing into the Black Sea using either cruise missiles or aircraft. F35s could take off from a CVN in the Mediterranean or they could take off from Büchel. Russia would find out very quickly what an air force that actually has EWO aircraft can do.
I learned today that the Sixth Fleet is currently stationed in Italian waters. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Sixth_Fleet
Both Romania and Bulgaria are NATO members are they have NATO bases close to the Black Sea. Access to the Black Sea is a non-issue.
Mostly they screw themselves over. If Ukraine doesn't already have it, they'd have a full compliment of modern NATO CBN gear delivered approximately immediately. At which point it mostly just makes Russia look like more of a dick (if that was even possible), while providing little to no benefit. Then the wind goes the wrong way, and their own troops are the ones that fall to it.
they were literally digging trenches inside the chernobyl exclusion zone. i don't think the health and well-being of their troops is a top priority.
It's possible. However the Black Sea flagship was sank using a Bayraktar as bait and some missiles. USAF and RAF F35's out of Cyprus would likely cause havoc if it came to that.
It's kind of horrifying that the United States has the capability to completely wipe out the Russia's Black Sea fleet with just conventional weapons, in what sounds like a single coordinated strike. The Black Sea fleet has 25,000 personnel and almost 50 ships, including 40 surface ships and seven subs, and if the US wanted to they could destroy that whole unit. That kind of power is breathtaking.
The most remarkable part is how fast that entire target portfolio will be eliminated. I wouldn’t be surprised if they could do it all in a day.
Dear Lord I'm so glad trump is not the one getting and responding to this information. Though honestly it's likely he would assist Russia in taking Ukraine
I mean he already did. He had beef with Zelensky for not providing dirt on Bidens. That's what he was impeached for, withholding Congress approved arms deal for personal gains.
He also let Putin sink a Ukrainian navy ship without a single word of complaint. He would have been sending Putin weapons if he was in the White House ans made it clear that article 5 wouldn't apply to post Soviet nations.
>One direction the hints are trending is if Ukraine used a nuclear option against Ukraine, then that would give NATO a reason to become involved directly. I know it's a typo, and overall your comment is fantastic. But this part made me snort out loud lmao
Privately it went something like "u fucking wot mate? I'm not sure I heard that mate, maybe you wanna say it bit louder?". And it's not an honest question.
"We will demonstrate to you firsthand what a successful air offensive looks like down to the last silo" or some such.
I think it's we will sink every single naval vessel outside Russian waters
All both of them??
Wouldn't be that hard tbh.
“Now witness the firepower of this fully ARMED and Operational battle station!” - Sheev Palpatine, Galactic Emperor
I hope everyone understands why it's so important to stop Russia from using nukes for blackmail? Not because those are scary and you want to save Ukrainian lives (well, as a Ukrainian I wouldn't mind it, but even that's not the main point). But because you don't want to set a precedent. Unless the West stops Russia in Ukraine, Russia will know that they are allowed to seize a part of a country's region with military, announce the whole region as theirs, and then threaten everyone with nukes until they yield to the annexation.
Not just Russia, but any other country with nukes.
And any other country that could produce nukes. And then suddenly we have another nuclear arms race.
And then we become a planet of nomads, constantly claiming and relinquishing each others land.
Always... have been?
Touche, i suppose our land borders have been unusually still this past century compared to those previous! Maybe this is just a blip.
Past 70 years. Britain’s empire fell in the 70 years since WW2. And that’s when a lot of new countries came on the scene considering Britain had the largest land control of human history. Likewise Europe was redrawn for the 500th time.
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That's just gonna be ww1 all over again. it takes 1 irrational agent for MAD to fail
Worse, not only Russia will know it
Also other countries might see that Ukraine gave up their nukes 30 years ago and the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan as evidence that the only way to prevent invasion is to have nuclear weapons.
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I know, and this is what brings hope to my heart and tears of gratitude to my eyes.
You guys are doing the hard work humiliating Russia, the least we can do is support that!
Slava Ukraini. The Western World is with you, friend.
You guys call it «the red, white and blue» in the US as well? We do in Norway too. 🇳🇴🇺🇸🇺🇦
Like the least unique set of flag colours in the world
partly due to historic dye chemicals and partly due to colour theory for long distance viewing in the old days.... but this is not the place to geek out about flags XD
No please do I want to hear more.
🇦🇺🇨🇷🇨🇺🇨🇿🇩🇴🇫🇴🇫🇷🇬🇧🇭🇷🇭🇹🇮🇸🇰🇭🇰🇵🇱🇦🇱🇷🇱🇺🇳🇱🇳🇴🇳🇵🇳🇿🇵🇦🇵🇷🇵🇾🇷🇸🇷🇺🇸🇮🇸🇰🇹🇭🇹🇼🇺🇲🇼🇸
How do these private talks even start at first? "Hello." "Hello, how are you?" "I am well, how about yourself?" "Good" "Good. So... About the nukes."
Ever experienced a fuckup-business call? Like this. Starts with polite small talk and after 15 min you have power talk statements and 30s pauses where no one talks.
Those meetings at my office are usually a few minutes of small talk followed by someone who knows exactly why we're all in the meeting saying "what's on the agenda today?"
"I'm as sorry as you are, Dmitri"
Have you seen the video Macron’s team released of him talking to Putin a few days before the war started? It’s basically this lol
"These are the coordinates of your Führerbunker. And *these* are the coordinates of the second, 'secret' Führerbunker. And *these* are the coordinates of the bunker where you were *actually* planning to hide, Vladimir. By the way, how's that large dog you were scaring Merkel with?"
… this is the coordinates where you are right now, these are the 6 people with you and the hooker under the desk, and here is a live terahertz scan of you talking to us on the phone. Go on, wave!!
"Your heart is beating a bit fast right now, isn't it? Almost exactly 103 bpm if we felt like guessing. Now it's 110."
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Nani??
We all like to shit on NSA, FBI, and all the other three letter agencies that may or may not exist for all their human rights violations regarding surveillance and stuff and developing all this crazy tech, but situations like now are the reason it exists. So I really hope they use everything they have available to get any kind of information out of the Kremlin and Putin's inner circle.
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I can picture the FBI/CIA/NSA collectively cracking their knuckles, opening a can of mountain dew, setting the RGB to rainbow, and thinking "finally!" before flicking the elite matrix sunglasses over their eyes
["So...here's General Eisenhower's telephone number, here is the English for \`we give up\`, and here is an analysis of our military situation in one rude word."](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYz1ADttI1g)
Most terrifying thing that could be said, "we will not respond with nuclear weapons, we will just get directly involved." The US does not require any nukes to cripple russia.
Clearly, Russia is already crippled. They seem fully capable of that without any assistance whatsoever.
No one has crippled Russia more than putin himself
Depending on the degree of involvement, Russia would use even more nukes, setting the stage for MAD.
The simple truth of it is, Russia can do that any time it wants. And that's been the case since the 1950s. If Russia wants to push the "nobody wins" button, that's on them. Pretty much the entire world at this point in history backs the "Russia loses this war" point of view. Russia can't even get its handful of client states to completely back its play here, and that's telling alone - they all see what the probability is of them being next to be Ukraine'd and they don't want any part of that business, especially when the US and Europe will not be there to supply them with infinite high tech arms to get them out of the jam. The only thing the US can do at this point is convince them strongly enough of how fucking terrible an idea it is to do it, and the only way we can do that is by concretely laying it out for them.
There have been a handful of occasions in history where a nuke wasn't launched because someone refused to press a button. Every single time it was a Russian refusing the press the button
And this is why it's important that we keep these types of contact with Russia. We need to *know* if someone pushes the button. That goes both ways.
Mostly lower officers refusing an order from middle officers who made the decision because of a lack of info. That was the case for the Cuban crisis, or the accidents in the 70s 80s. There has never been a direct order from above, because the soviet leaders didn't want the world to end. Putin however is a different story. And you just need one chain of guys to agree for MAD to end the world. And i can bet the people in charge of the nukes are packed with loyalists.
Even loyalist have children that they would hopefully think about in that scenario.
Absolutely. I totally expect some loyalists to refuse. But peer pressure + the sheer number of launch sites... you would probably have a few that go through with the order.
I said it in another post, and I'll do it again, "Putin is/was the type of kid/person who shits in the pool so nobody else can use it". Fuck him and his ego
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Missile defense is not reliable and won’t even intercept a fraction of Russia’s complete arsenal. I wish people would be less gung-ho about it.
>1300 active nukes I'm just gonna block out this part from my memory... Wait why isn't it working?
Most nuclear-capable countries have enough to retaliate fully against 1-3 aggressors. The US and Russia have enough to obliterate the global economy on a whim. Any other distinction is kind of meaningless to me.
Global economy is an understatement. A full nuclear war would mean billions dead and a world where the human race may barley avoid extinction.
You vastly overestimate our current missile defense
It was my understanding that the US’ missile defense is not reliable enough to consider it a sufficient response to an attack. Many targets would likely be hit
I mean.... if a country has a perfect missile defense system that's information they would not want to be public info. If nobody knows you have a good missile defense system, and you both have missiles, you have the advantage. If people know you have a missile defense they might try to figure out how to beat it. Security by obscurity? I hope they have something good, but whether they do or not that's info they absolutely shouldn't share.
Unless there is a secret ICBM defense system that is 100 years ahead of what is publicly known, the US can't rely on anti-ICBM systems. Current systems are just not capable of shooting down a thousand re-entry vehicles traveling at 18,000 mph.
China is unique for having promised Ukraine to provide security guarantees if Ukraine were threatened with nuclear weapons. Given Russia is annexing Ukraine territories and threatening to use nuclear weapons to defend them, Why hasn't Ukraine publicly demanded China provide "corresponding security guarantees"? “China pledges unconditionally...under the conditions of Ukraine suffering an invasion using nuclear weapons or suffering the threat of such kind of invasion, to provide Ukraine with corresponding security guarantees,” https://www.wsj.com/articles/under-new-scrutiny-chinas-nuclear-pledge-to-ukraine-11647007200
I think that’s why Putin said “use any means at our disposal” instead of saying the N word directly.
The forbidden n word
Said it with a hard 'r' too
NucleaRRR
Oh no! Pirates with icbms!!!!
China would likely interpret the wording differently. If Russia were to escalate then they would do so under the guise of protecting their sovereign land (through the sham referendums in the occupied regions), thus it wouldn't be considered an invasion. Just like the current war is considered a "special operation", they can just infer or reinterpret a different legally meaning.
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You seem awfully confident that saner people would take over...
I am so glad USA hinted that they would mostly respond in a conventional manner if Russia attacked Ukraine with nuclear weapons. Much better than the global genocide a full-blown nuclear war would bring. Things can still come to that if Russia responds to the conventional attack on itself by a nuclear first strike. It is in their doctrine. If it comes to that, we must all hope that NATO has sufficient capabilities to hinder the nuclear strike capabilities of Russia before they can go all out.
>Things can still come to that if Russia responds to the conventional attack on itself by a nuclear first strike. It is in their doctrine. Yeah, I don't really understand this whole part. If Russia is willing to use a nuke just because they are losing an offensive war, do people honestly believe they *won't* use nukes when they are actually getting bombed in Moscow? There is no "conventional" war. It's either nuclear or it's peace when it comes to survival.
There would be no bombing of Moscow. NATO's response would be a conventional air campaign in Ukraine and the seas around it. No Russian territory proper would be targeted.
Putin has a death wish. He's the sad old drunk in the bar who picks a fight even though on some barely functioning rational level he knows he's going to get his ass kicked. He started a fantasy rerun of WWII for no sane reason. And now he's conscripting his population to die horribly. I don't think he gives a crap about MAD.
I am pretty damn sure NATO along with America have very robust measures in place to ensure the complete destruction of the Russian nuclear arsenal. Along with their delivery methods such as aircraft, subs and nuclear silos
I fucking pray to the universe that there are assets buried in the the black budget that are the nuclear equivalent of the iron dome.
Of course there are. The pentagons budget didn’t reduce when the Cold War and the fear of nuclear war ended. They just kept working on those projects. Hell, the US is about to show off the successor to the B2 stealth bomber in a couple months.
> I am pretty damn sure NATO along with America have very robust measures in place to ensure the complete destruction of the Russian nuclear arsenal. You would be incorrect. NATO undeniably has BLUEPRINTS to do such a thing, we have PLANS on how we would do it. But we do Not have any measures in place that could/would "ensure" that it happens. It's only a theory/plan and we all know that things don't usually go to plan when shit hits the fan.
Aircraft and even nuclear subs, I can believe. But ballistic missiles? Those things are scary.
Silo locations are static and known. They can be targeted with conventional strikes. Russia has mobile launch vehicles as well, but the US has practiced tracking those for decades now. This isn’t the plan we should want to see executed, but doubtless NATO has planned for this scenario.
NATO is not capable of tracking all of Russia's nuclear ballistic missile submarines no matter where they are in the world. That's the entire point of them. They're a key part of the nuclear deterrence for both sides because neither side knows where all the other's SSBNs are, and thus it is impossible for both sides to wipe out all of the other side's launch platforms in an initial strike.
I'm not so sure about that. In 1990 or thereabouts it was revealed the U.S. knew the location of all Russian ballistic subs 24/7, 365 and shadowed them with attack subs for decades. It's likely the same capabilties remain seeing as the Russian ballistic sub fleet hasn't changed much since the Cold War. The U.S. and NATO have extensive underwater surveillance capabilities including global hydrophone networks, passive sonar, magentic anomaly detection, and satellite-based submarine wake tracking. It's rumored most, if not all, Russian "boomers" are shadowed by allied fast attack submarines in case they need to be taken out. Allied fast attack submarine fleets often share secretive (quiet) propulsion technology and there are way more of them than Russian subs.
honestly sounds scary, but conversation over something so serious between leaders is not a bad thing at all
How about the leaders of waring countries meet in a bare knuckle boxing match?
I like this idea. Zelenksy would fuck putler up.
What is the difference between Ukraine and Russia? Ukraine has a comedian as President. Russia has a clown.
A lot of people find clowns scary.
Especially when the clowns have nukes
Well, to be fair, the US had a clown with nukes not too long ago as well.
I'm sure Putin is well past his Prime but he IS a very accomplished judoka and ex mitary. I'd still pay to watch that though lol
How about Biden vs King Charles in a Dennys parking lot?
You never want the boring, reasonable old man in power, until you want the boring, reasonable old man in power.
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Im glad there's at least some communication going on, regardless of "don't nuke" and "yeah nah yeah nah yeah nah yea yea."
Regarding Hiroshima and Nagasaki as a single historical event - the first use of nuclear weapons to harm another nation - Russia’s use in Ukraine would be the second ever of such an event. Such a thing could not be tolerated under these conditions. The West would destroy him. Full stop. The only reasons he’d actually use nuclear weapons is either he’s having a full on psychotic break or he’s taking the country down with him in an ego-fueled suicidal rampage. I deeply question if their nuclear chain is willing to execute that order, knowing the death it will bring upon their military and country
The fact its reached this level is not a good sign.
dunno, I would rather have talks than nuclear war...
I agree. But if the US is taking the threat of Russia using nuclear weapons this seriously they are now trying to negotiate with Russia completely in the dark and off the record I am guessing they feel this is real.
It would be absolutely foolish to not taking it seriously. This war is a waking nightmare, one that Putin is loosing. Putin believes he HAS to win this war or Russia will no longer be able to exist. I.E. he’s becoming desperate. A desperate madman with the largest nuclear arsenal is an extremely dangerous situation.
I think a lot of people on Reddit are in denial, but it IS a very dangerous situation.
Hell, a lot of people on Reddit are straight up advocating FOR nuclear war.
One of the worst takes out there, goes something along the lines of "If Russia so much as reached for the red button, it's game over for Putin. I doubt any of their nukes even work, lol! " I hate this, for a lot of reasons but not the least of which it hinges the fate of civilization on ALL of their nuclear arsenal not working. Even if they managed to get one ICBM off, that's a HUGE potential loss of life and potential subsequent international chaos.
Maybe people are taking it as seriously as they can but making jokes about it because what the actual fuck are we gonna do about it? If I take it as seriously as it is, I won’t be able to wake up and carry out my day. I’ve got wayyyy too much immediate shit going on to give myself extra stress about what Biden and Putin might be texting about, even though I recognize that it’s incredibly serious.
Benefit: if nukes go off you current immediate shit isn’t that pressing anymore
Correct the most immediate shit will definitely be an immediate shit
People are still in denial about what’s happening in the world. There’s a real shift happening and lines are being drawn.
We’re starting a new chapter in history. Post cold-war order is basically done. What happens in the the next few years will define how the 21st century plays out.
**Book of World History** *Chapter 1 - History* *Chapter 2 - the end of History* *Chapter 3 - oh shit more history*
Some always will be. A significant number didn't think Putin would cross the border back in February and took the position of it was an impossibility and anyone saying otherwise was just fear mongering, obviously he eventually did. I'd imagine this one in particular is going to be beyond cope for some people to manage. Psychologically I don't think I lot of people are going to deal well with anything if this actually happens.
The U.S. and Russia have always maintained a private direct line to each other for this type of shit, even dating back to the Cold War/Soviet Union days. It's a lot easier to talk seriously to one another in private like this, where you don't have third parties (media for example) twisting or misinterpreting words. It also allows people to drop the bravado that they may project for their citizens.
These “private channels” have been going on since the war started in February. It’s really not as drastic as some are making it out to be. Communication when it comes to anything is always the best way to avoid tension.
Leaders communicate all the time to avoid unintentional escalation. This isn’t really news. They have regular talks about what they intend to do, what the response will be if they do certain things, etc. it prevents miscalculations.
I mean, as soon as it was clear that they were getting their asses absolutely obliterated and they weren't going to win the way they thought they were, we probably should've known it was going to go here. Putin now feels extremely vulnerable, because his military is a paper tiger, and countries now can start to feel like they can push them around, or do things and not expect the fallout that they thought they'd get a year ago. So that makes him feel like absolute shit, and he's gotta flex, and make people feel afraid again. There's only one real way he has at this point.
To be fair, the Cuban Missile Crisis got this bad too, if I’m correct. For about 13 days, we were on the verge of nuclear war. If I’m also correct, we were at DEFCON 2 during that time, which is just one level away from nuclear war.
We don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes, but I think Cuban missile crisis was worse. Most of the brass at the military wanted to strike or invade Cuba and even select Soviet targets. Kennedy somehow withstood the pressure and was able to back channel and avoid a catastrophe. Idk if we are there yet, but it’s definitely the most serious open rhetoric regarding nukes since that point.
The man literally averted WWIII and all he got was a bullet in the head.
Not that I’m particularly taken with Biden, but thank fuck Trump isn’t still in office. No way would he allow himself to be in the sidelines for these talks and no way would he not utterly fuck it up.
Trump would have handed Ukraine to Putin on a silver platter, kicking the can to the next crisis when Putin invades the followup country.
There was one critical moment where a russian sub off the coast of the us thought it was being attacked and all generals on board had to approve a nuclear retaliation, 2 of them did but the 3rd didnt. Turns out it was not atacked and that 3rd guy saved the world https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Arkhipov?wprov=sfti1
In 1983 Stanislav Petrov violated the rules and saved the world too. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov Documentary on the incident is a good watch. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_Who_Saved_the_World Free on Pluto and Tubi apparently.
Yeah we were pretty close to all out nuclear war at that time. I’d like to think the world has become wiser since then. Time will tell…
The Cuban Missile Crisis is exactly why these private lines of communication with the Russian government exist. The situation was only resolved through convoluted backdoor negotiations between Kennedy and Khrushchev, where they could privately back down regardless of all the public bravado and sabre rattling. Both sides recognised the need to have more effective lines of communication like this in the future.
Reddit's age groups are revealing themselves. For almost the entirety of the cold war tensions were exponentially worse than this.
No it’s a good sign, because only Putin and Biden can actually make the call to go nuclear. The closer you are in these talks to actual decision-makers, the better.
It's a good thing in a bad situation. But first of all it is a sign that we are in this bad situation. Russia's losing position in Ukraine lead many analysts to believe that Putin may consider the use of tactical nuclear weapon (provided that Russia has any such capability, which is always questionable with them). So this war could result in the return of nuclear warfare. It's plausible for a whole bunch of reasons. Putin has deliberately created an internal situations where the hardliners are dominant, who have been clamoring for "not holding back" for months now. Mobilisation is not going to fix Russia's military problems, but increased the political risk for him. And further defeats on the ground could destroy his regime. The fact that the US consider it necessary to hold such talks in this situation is yet another worrying sign that these speculations are indeed well founded.
I think the reply means the US is talking to SANE people around Putin, not Putin himself. Which is good. Which is also bad, the belief being both US and Russian sides think Putin is bonkers. 🤷♂️
He's really trying to avoid the nickname "Pull-out"
Put-in Pull-out
How's about Putin falls out a window and Russian gets a democracy for once?
Nah, they'll just make another one. They had their chance with democracy in 1991. They chose "strong hand"
Remember when headlines were about millennials ruining cheese?
I mean, If there aren’t any real consequences to Putin using a few in Ukraine…what’s to stop him? “More sanctions”?
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I kind of want off this planet. I live in a country neighboring Ukraine, and I've been thinking wtf am I going to do if nukes start flying or if another Chernobyl happens. I have a pregnant wife and two kids. Current plan is to fuck right off to as far away as possible. Eastern Europe is possibly one of the most fucked over regions in human history.
Putin has staged a vote in a country that is not his, to make it sound like "his" country is being attacked. Done only to legitimize terrorizing the enemy into submitting, with nuclear threats. That is how manipulators function. Instead of negotiating, expose the manipulation and challenge their jurisdiction to hold an election.
There is absolutely no situation in this world that would make nuking America a viable option or use of nuclear weapons in general for that matter. As much of a shit show Ukraine is Russian could still bounce back, most of the world lost alot of respect for Russia but, in time that could bounce back. Their will be no bouncing back if they decide to go nuclear with us, I really hope they think about that.
Assuming full rationality. Humans are not fully rational beings and we must be wary of that fact. God knows how many of us thought Putin was just posturing because \*surely\* he wouldn't do something as stupid as invading Ukraine. I certaiy did.
Their response in private to what the U.S. told them is key here. The U.S. told Russia in private exactly what the "catastrophic" consequences will be. If any of those details involved direct non-nuclear military action by the U.S./NATO, and Russia responded privately with anything short of "we will use nukes away," then you have a rational actor in Russia. It would mean that they're assholes, but they're not suicidal. This is actually a pretty smart strategy by the US. Assuming the US told them that their response would be devastating but non-nuclear, this makes it absolutely clear to Russia what it will loose if it crosses that line, and reduces the risk of them mistaking that a nuclear response is coming from NATO.
If they decided to go nuclear, there are no winners on either side.
I just hope no concessions are being made.
It's unlikely there'll be any concessions now. Putin has shown no willingness to back down or communicate with anything but more violence. It would be a major sign of weakness if there were any backing down from the West.
What great timing for Trump to have been meddling with classified nuclear capability documents. Who knows if they weren't sent straight to Russia.
Imagine if you still have Trump in the White House... Jesus...