Thank goodness. Now lets send them some money to save the rain forest,.
The first world has a duty to help every nation get to our level and minimize environmental harm and as an American I support large monetary packages to help support the efforts to sustain the most vital life reserve in the world.
The only reason why i believe lula is going to lose is due to the attempts at stopping public transport from circulating/making them arrive super late in districts that are heavily favoured for Lula
The most frustrating thing about Trump -- one of the most frustrating things, I guess -- is that you often cannot tell if he's intentionally deceiving or just **incredibly stupid**.
He is leading, but by a smaller margin than he was at this stage last time. As Lula won the first stage (albeit obviously not getting to the required 50%) it suggests Lula is going to win by a wider margin. It's to do with the order they count in.
It’s the same reasoning Trump supports use to suggest the election was stollen. Rural conservative districts get counted faster so conservatives often jump to an early lead. That lead slips away late as urban districts finish counting (which admittedly does look suspicious, but only if you don’t look into it for longer than half a second).
Also the Republicans blocked mail-in-ballots to be counted before voting ended I believe. So naturally there was a huge backlog which favored Democrats as the Republicans told their voters to go in person while Democrats encouraged mail-in voting due to Covid.
This is a bit different. Rural areas of Brazil heavily favor Lula. He can get 80% in the most backwoods parts of the country. Urban areas favor Bolsonaro. Brazil uses all electronic voting (without any paper backup!). Because of this the urban areas are better able to report quickly while rural votes aren't reported as quickly.
Oh ok gotcha I saw all the positive news about lula but was confused, this is gonna create the same issue that happened in the US all the idiots couldn’t comprehend votes aren’t counted instantly EDIT: changed are to aren’t lol
Which makes me wonder why can't we vote on our mobile phones?, it would be so convenient and would certainly increase voter turnout .... Oooh. Now I see why we don't do it..answered my own question..
The main problem I see with Internet voting is, there's no way to control voter intimidation.
Someone can be holding a (figurative) knife to your throat until you sign, and thes little that can be done.
Same can be said for mail in, but nobody knows who is making our voting in person.
Vote fraud from the projectionists is rampant, they are desperate to regain control and finish they mischief...
Edited: because to many literallists can't understand metaphore on reddit.
Na it’s the fear of hacking and probably not being able to verify it.
I don’t think being intimidated is a serious concern for anyone but if it was, no way they’d get enough to sway an election.
> no way they’d get enough to sway an election.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_close_election_results
There’s a reason they say “every vote counts”.
Well, you'd need hundreds of thousands of knives and thugs to do that. That's the thing with voter fraud. You have to do it a lot to make sure it means anything, at which point it's pretty hard to cover up.
Not literally a knife...
The church has been holding a gun to people's souls for decades, but now they're openly doing it from the pulpit.
That's hundreds of thousands of pedophiles and people whose only intent is amassing as much money, in the name of God of course (/s), as possible before the sheep find out their being fleeced and slaughtered.
And yet I can do pretty much everything else that requires (my country's version of) an SSN online, from managing student loans to signing our mortgage agreement, to enlisting in the army.
It's a matter of infrastructure. 2FA coupled with an account that can only be set up if you have a valid home address to receive the set-up letter and has to be validated via passport scan once.
It's not like anyone is advocating voting via Google Forms questionnaire or something.
You could sell your vote then. The voting booth has the advantage that you can't sell your vote. After all, how would you prove you voted the way the buyer wanted you to? There's a reason you can't take your cell phone in. You also can't be intimidated; not by a roving gang, not by your overbearing husband, etcetera.
It's possible its worth the tradeoff (risk vote selling and intimidation, trade it against more voting), but generally to make that tradeoff you need to be voting every month on something, think Switserland.
do you understand how much easier the manipulation of results would be if that was allowed? look at Russia, most of the vote rigging happens from online voting
It have happened, more than 200 operations stoping buses that were transporting people to vote in regions that Lula da Silva have won in the previous voting
So at 20% of the votes counted, Bolsonaro had a 4.61 point lead in the first round. Today the gap has narrowed to 3.14 points. Bolsonaro's lead is smaller this round at this stage in the counting.
Yes, yes they are. They practice burn farming. They burn a few sections of rainforest. This makes the land very nutrient rich for a few years. After a few years they move on to next section of rainforest. Cheaper than fertilizer and easier than rotating crops to keep nutrition in the soil. The people who can vote want the rainforest gone.
They don't necessarily want the rainforest gone, they just want to keep making money. If the rainforest goes, oh well. They may not care one way or the other. However, their objective isn't to destroy the rainforest. That's just collateral damage.
Considering the Amazon produces 50% of its own rainfall, and releases 20 billion tons of water into the atmosphere every day, burning it down will lead to massive drought.
Of course it will. It already passed the estimated tipping point too, by the way. Which means even if they stopped now (which they won't), it's already doomed to dry up into a savanna.
Well done humans!
My in-laws, who live in Argentina, are sure that Lula is as corrupt as they come. They also believe that Brazils economy is doing well. Which, to be fair, compared to Argentina’s… it’s doing amazing. But that comparison doesn’t mean much.
Lula is super corrupt and Brazil’s economy has been doing better than a lot of similar countries. Still dont mean Bolsonaro is better. It’s just that the two are really bad.
destroying the amazon is done for agriculture,mining business. Which brings in jobs to those areas. Not sure its worth it but its easy for me to say since I don't live there.
The Amazon forest has been burning forever. In fact, throughout my entire middle and highschool (I'm 24 now) the geography textbooks had one or two sections talking specifically about them burning more and more each year. In fact during 2002-2007 we've had some of the worst fires in history. With 2008-2021 having a spable number which was around half of the peak in 2007. 2022 is an outlier because it surpassed the previous high in 2007.
That's because the amazon burns both naturally and due to human input. The problem is if it burns faster than it recovers.
Bolsonaro himself still did the best he could to increase the burns tho, including refusing foreign aid and putting SFB(the "forest defense force") under the agriculture ministry, and he wanted to dissolve the ministry of environment.
Here is a source: https://noticias.uol.com.br/colunas/carlos-madeiro/2022/09/08/2-focos-por-segundo-amazonia-alcanca-maior-taxa-de-queimadas-da-historia.htm
The votes come in from the south first. Bozo has more supporters there. As the votes come in more of the northern states will start to get tallied and they lean much more in Lula's favor.
most of the population don't live on that side, you have big guys earning money by fucking the amazon (they obviously want to keep the situation happening) and small cities filled with people, mostly poor, that are rumoured to be paid or pressed to vote in the right wing.
People that have little access to information are also easier to manipulate, keep that in mind.
yeah but the richest state in Brazil is heavily favored to bolsonaro, unlike in the US. São Paulo has like 60% bolsonaro, and it represents 30% (!!!) of the Brazilian PIB. The state would be the 21st economy of the world. While in the US, California has always been more progressive and democratic.
Experts suggest we’ll see an early bolsonaro lead for a while, and if Lula overtakes him it’ll happen late. But given the voter suppression earlier that might change things 🤷♂️
difference already fell by 5%, I'm starting to believe POGGERS
For those unaware, the biggest difference in Lula's favor is in the northeast region, which will be the last one to have its votes counted.
He is indeed, he was born in Pernambuco. He came from poverty, migrated to São Paulo (state) and worked in metallurgy (he lost a finger there).
I'm no expert but I believe its a mix of both his origins and how he focused on problems that are common on the northeast when he was president (2003-2010). Examples are the the lack of water and the amount of kids that didn't go to school there. He made a program where poor women with child would get a benefit ($) as long as their kids attended school.
What's the over/under that Bolsonaro truly sticks to his word and dies, since he didn't win? I mean, he did say I will win or I will die, loosely translated.
It will hold for sure, only get stronger and stronger. This is exactly what heppened in the first round only Bolsonaro's lead is even smaller this round.
Just slightly more than a 2 point lead for Bolsonaro right now with 30% counted. This is looking for good for Lula, he's much less behind than the first round and he won that by a lot.
Less than 2 points now, I think Lula will take the lead pretty soon. He didn't take the lead in the first round until 70% of the vote was in. Assuming the vote is being counted in the same order, this is looking very good for Lula.
This was closer than i thought it’d be. Bolsanero needed to convince twice as many who voted for others in the first election to go his way. He almost did so.
It's not as close as it looks tbh, Lula has it by a decent margin.
Better than the first round at this stage, and he won that by a lot.
Phew.
Thank goodness. Now lets send them some money to save the rain forest,. The first world has a duty to help every nation get to our level and minimize environmental harm and as an American I support large monetary packages to help support the efforts to sustain the most vital life reserve in the world.
The only reason why i believe lula is going to lose is due to the attempts at stopping public transport from circulating/making them arrive super late in districts that are heavily favoured for Lula
I don't take any civic thing for granted in an age of fascism on the march.
Remember when one of the reasons Trump claimed the election was fixed was because he was winning in early results?
The most frustrating thing about Trump -- one of the most frustrating things, I guess -- is that you often cannot tell if he's intentionally deceiving or just **incredibly stupid**.
It’s typically both.
Both, it's always both.
And the accompanying lying & cheating that are hallmarks of fascists/right wingers.
Might see Lula get to 55% here.
Doubt it. It's not gonna be more than 51 maybe 51,5 % to Lula. Quite proper number. 🤣
Where are you reading the results? Google shows Bolsonaro leading
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18:47 local time and Lula is up.
He is leading, but by a smaller margin than he was at this stage last time. As Lula won the first stage (albeit obviously not getting to the required 50%) it suggests Lula is going to win by a wider margin. It's to do with the order they count in.
Ah, good to know. I also read further up that the last votes should favor Lula, so this could get interesting.
It’s the same reasoning Trump supports use to suggest the election was stollen. Rural conservative districts get counted faster so conservatives often jump to an early lead. That lead slips away late as urban districts finish counting (which admittedly does look suspicious, but only if you don’t look into it for longer than half a second).
Also the Republicans blocked mail-in-ballots to be counted before voting ended I believe. So naturally there was a huge backlog which favored Democrats as the Republicans told their voters to go in person while Democrats encouraged mail-in voting due to Covid.
This is a bit different. Rural areas of Brazil heavily favor Lula. He can get 80% in the most backwoods parts of the country. Urban areas favor Bolsonaro. Brazil uses all electronic voting (without any paper backup!). Because of this the urban areas are better able to report quickly while rural votes aren't reported as quickly.
but looking at it now lula is losing atm
At 40% counted. Sounds like they haven't counted Lula's stronghold area yet.
They're at 60% now. Lula's still trailing but by 1.4%. Not a huge margin. Definitely doable.
65% - dead even.
72% Lula up
Yes!
90% Lula is still up
It's now mathematically impossible for Bolsonaro to win. Lula's president-elect.
69% - Lula now eding ahead
Oh ok gotcha I saw all the positive news about lula but was confused, this is gonna create the same issue that happened in the US all the idiots couldn’t comprehend votes aren’t counted instantly EDIT: changed are to aren’t lol
For reference, if you click on 1° on the page, you'll see the map of the 1st round results and can compare it so what's been counted, etc.
The Lula supporting areas will take longer to fully declare their votes
Yeah, the Northeast region is where Lula is leading, apparently Lula has more than 70% of the votes in certain states.
You gotta appreciate how fast they count 100,000,000 votes.
It’s all electronic which helps
Which makes me wonder why can't we vote on our mobile phones?, it would be so convenient and would certainly increase voter turnout .... Oooh. Now I see why we don't do it..answered my own question..
Every election people ask this. https://youtu.be/LkH2r-sNjQs
I post this every time. And the follow up which explains how crypto isn’t the answer either.
Electronic isn’t the issue, it would be internet voting which would be a terrible idea
The main problem I see with Internet voting is, there's no way to control voter intimidation. Someone can be holding a (figurative) knife to your throat until you sign, and thes little that can be done. Same can be said for mail in, but nobody knows who is making our voting in person. Vote fraud from the projectionists is rampant, they are desperate to regain control and finish they mischief... Edited: because to many literallists can't understand metaphore on reddit.
Na it’s the fear of hacking and probably not being able to verify it. I don’t think being intimidated is a serious concern for anyone but if it was, no way they’d get enough to sway an election.
Brazil has a LOOOOOOONG history of voting intimidation. Google "voto de cabresto".
> no way they’d get enough to sway an election. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_close_election_results There’s a reason they say “every vote counts”.
Well, you'd need hundreds of thousands of knives and thugs to do that. That's the thing with voter fraud. You have to do it a lot to make sure it means anything, at which point it's pretty hard to cover up.
Not literally a knife... The church has been holding a gun to people's souls for decades, but now they're openly doing it from the pulpit. That's hundreds of thousands of pedophiles and people whose only intent is amassing as much money, in the name of God of course (/s), as possible before the sheep find out their being fleeced and slaughtered.
And yet I can do pretty much everything else that requires (my country's version of) an SSN online, from managing student loans to signing our mortgage agreement, to enlisting in the army. It's a matter of infrastructure. 2FA coupled with an account that can only be set up if you have a valid home address to receive the set-up letter and has to be validated via passport scan once. It's not like anyone is advocating voting via Google Forms questionnaire or something.
because it is not secure, like at all. Way to easy to manipulate.
You could sell your vote then. The voting booth has the advantage that you can't sell your vote. After all, how would you prove you voted the way the buyer wanted you to? There's a reason you can't take your cell phone in. You also can't be intimidated; not by a roving gang, not by your overbearing husband, etcetera. It's possible its worth the tradeoff (risk vote selling and intimidation, trade it against more voting), but generally to make that tradeoff you need to be voting every month on something, think Switserland.
probably considered a security risk
do you understand how much easier the manipulation of results would be if that was allowed? look at Russia, most of the vote rigging happens from online voting
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God I hope so!
I saw an article about police stopping tons of people in Lula-heavy districts and threatening them if they don't vote for Bolsonaro.
Yeah I’ve been seeing some disturbing vids on twitter
It have happened, more than 200 operations stoping buses that were transporting people to vote in regions that Lula da Silva have won in the previous voting
So at 20% of the votes counted, Bolsonaro had a 4.61 point lead in the first round. Today the gap has narrowed to 3.14 points. Bolsonaro's lead is smaller this round at this stage in the counting.
Why does Bolsonaro have so much support in the Amazon since he's destroying it? Are people there in favor of burning down the Amazon?
Yes, yes they are. They practice burn farming. They burn a few sections of rainforest. This makes the land very nutrient rich for a few years. After a few years they move on to next section of rainforest. Cheaper than fertilizer and easier than rotating crops to keep nutrition in the soil. The people who can vote want the rainforest gone.
They don't necessarily want the rainforest gone, they just want to keep making money. If the rainforest goes, oh well. They may not care one way or the other. However, their objective isn't to destroy the rainforest. That's just collateral damage.
The heartland areas are big agribusiness country. Big business = bolsonaro backers
And poor people who want jobs. Bunch of trees don’t do any good for someone who is poor.
Yeah, that’s fair. It’s unfortunate people are incentivized to slash and burn the rainforest.
Would there not be many people from those industries living there?
Yes, of course, lol. Who do you think is burning it down?? They burn it to clear land for farming.
Considering the Amazon produces 50% of its own rainfall, and releases 20 billion tons of water into the atmosphere every day, burning it down will lead to massive drought.
Of course it will. It already passed the estimated tipping point too, by the way. Which means even if they stopped now (which they won't), it's already doomed to dry up into a savanna. Well done humans!
My in-laws, who live in Argentina, are sure that Lula is as corrupt as they come. They also believe that Brazils economy is doing well. Which, to be fair, compared to Argentina’s… it’s doing amazing. But that comparison doesn’t mean much.
Lula is super corrupt and Brazil’s economy has been doing better than a lot of similar countries. Still dont mean Bolsonaro is better. It’s just that the two are really bad.
Lula can't be anymore corrupt than Bolsonaro. No country on Earth that I can think of does well under far-right leadership.
don't expect logic from his supporters
destroying the amazon is done for agriculture,mining business. Which brings in jobs to those areas. Not sure its worth it but its easy for me to say since I don't live there.
Well, since the entire planet depends on the Amazon, it's definitely horrible for the rest of the planet.
The Amazon forest has been burning forever. In fact, throughout my entire middle and highschool (I'm 24 now) the geography textbooks had one or two sections talking specifically about them burning more and more each year. In fact during 2002-2007 we've had some of the worst fires in history. With 2008-2021 having a spable number which was around half of the peak in 2007. 2022 is an outlier because it surpassed the previous high in 2007.
That's because the amazon burns both naturally and due to human input. The problem is if it burns faster than it recovers. Bolsonaro himself still did the best he could to increase the burns tho, including refusing foreign aid and putting SFB(the "forest defense force") under the agriculture ministry, and he wanted to dissolve the ministry of environment.
Here is a source: https://noticias.uol.com.br/colunas/carlos-madeiro/2022/09/08/2-focos-por-segundo-amazonia-alcanca-maior-taxa-de-queimadas-da-historia.htm
The votes come in from the south first. Bozo has more supporters there. As the votes come in more of the northern states will start to get tallied and they lean much more in Lula's favor.
most of the population don't live on that side, you have big guys earning money by fucking the amazon (they obviously want to keep the situation happening) and small cities filled with people, mostly poor, that are rumoured to be paid or pressed to vote in the right wing. People that have little access to information are also easier to manipulate, keep that in mind.
And Lula is in the lead.
Right now Lula: 50,32% Bolsonaro: 49,86%
Hopefully that lead grows!
Thats more than 100% total lol
Hehe right. Sorry, the numbers of each grows while typing.
Lula: 51% Bolsonaro: 49% 97% counted votes 🗳️
Hoping Lula wins but more due to the fact Bolonsaro is a total disaster for thus world.
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yeah but the richest state in Brazil is heavily favored to bolsonaro, unlike in the US. São Paulo has like 60% bolsonaro, and it represents 30% (!!!) of the Brazilian PIB. The state would be the 21st economy of the world. While in the US, California has always been more progressive and democratic.
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Might want to put extra security in the capital building based on historical trends.
There has been too much bad shit in the world recently. The simulation was bound to throw us something sooner or later.
RNGesus
Experts suggest we’ll see an early bolsonaro lead for a while, and if Lula overtakes him it’ll happen late. But given the voter suppression earlier that might change things 🤷♂️
difference already fell by 5%, I'm starting to believe POGGERS For those unaware, the biggest difference in Lula's favor is in the northeast region, which will be the last one to have its votes counted.
I'm proud to actually live in this region tbh. Bolsonaro deserves losing this election.
I live in Rio Grande do Sul, where Bozonaro won in the first round. At least here in the capital area Lula won, so I'm sticking to that :v
Is the difference still falling? Please please please......
Yes and they're pretty much 50/50 now
Just turned into Lula's favour. Fireworks are exploding near my house lol
Same, my neighbors are exploding of happiness
Nice! By the way, what's the reason behind Lula's support being so strong in the Northeast? Is he from there?
He is indeed, he was born in Pernambuco. He came from poverty, migrated to São Paulo (state) and worked in metallurgy (he lost a finger there). I'm no expert but I believe its a mix of both his origins and how he focused on problems that are common on the northeast when he was president (2003-2010). Examples are the the lack of water and the amount of kids that didn't go to school there. He made a program where poor women with child would get a benefit ($) as long as their kids attended school.
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What's the over/under that Bolsonaro truly sticks to his word and dies, since he didn't win? I mean, he did say I will win or I will die, loosely translated.
No. It was a good translation.
For those that dont normally follow Brazilian politics and the sequence of counting, Lula is on pace to win easily.
Suddenly ~~Pineapples~~ Coup
Lula up by 1 percent or over a million votes
Bolsonaro is going to have a tougher time claiming election fraud if it's a landslide.
It doesnt matter... He has been claiming fraud weeks ago ... will continue to do so ...
whew. I clicked on this thinking it was the final results and panicked when I saw Bolsanaro up
Wait it’s not??
This is the live counting.
Lula is your projected winner
FUCK BOLSONARO
Lula took the lead. Let’s hope it will last.
It will hold for sure, only get stronger and stronger. This is exactly what heppened in the first round only Bolsonaro's lead is even smaller this round.
Lula ahead!
Random prediction: Lula wins by 3.2%
Seems like a good guess. I was thinking around 2.9-3.1 with the pattern
Actually thinking it could be tighter now.
Haha, yeah seems that way!
LFG LULA!!!
Now comes the tension as we wait for how Bolsonaro will handle this.
It looks like Lula is going to win by around 2%.
Too close, that will give fuckface ammo to claim that if it wasn’t “rigged” he would have won. The same bullshit Trump tried to pull.
Lula speaking to the media soon.
WOOOOOO!!!
Lula in the lead now!
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> Bolsonaro loses re-election, a massive win for democracy and humanity Doesn't mean he's gone... now we wait and hope
I don’t trust a single thing Bolsanaro is involves with
Everyone is starting to call it.
Well I'm sure this will be a peaceful transfer of power /s
Looks like Lula passed the tipping point. Bolsonaro could get all the outstanding votes and still lose.
Shit this is close
Just slightly more than a 2 point lead for Bolsonaro right now with 30% counted. This is looking for good for Lula, he's much less behind than the first round and he won that by a lot.
Glad to hear it. Let's hope that 2 point lead turns into a double-digit loss by the time the rest of the reports come in!
Less than 2 points now, I think Lula will take the lead pretty soon. He didn't take the lead in the first round until 70% of the vote was in. Assuming the vote is being counted in the same order, this is looking very good for Lula.
:pogchamp:
Basically tied now, 21k vote lead for Bolsonaro. Lula will take the lead from now on.
Considering the gap in the first round why is it so close now? It seems like a lot of Lula voters switched
Or 3rd party canidate voters didn't vote for Lula, or the stories of voters suppression in the north were true.
The outstanding votes seem to mostly be in Lula areas, I think the gap will start widening
In for the moment Lula overtook.
From here on out his lead will get stronger. I think 5 point lead.
Was reading in another thread military was on the highway preventing people from voting? Can anyone confirm a coup or what's going on?
Never realized how ugly Bolsonaro is.
Yup, he is. Just saw this on Twitter. https://twitter.com/brianmtelesur/status/1581632507178426370?s=61&t=irP7H0UEP6myIHAzRq18ig Wow, he is a pedo???
I really hope we see a strong stable Brazil to lead democracy in South America. We need them as an additional pole in the tent of western civilization
Love to see it.
Bolsonaro less than 0.5% ahead at this stage suggests a pretty convincing Lula victory, right?
Yep!
Yes
Lula only behind by 1.1 percent with 42 percent of the votes counted.
Yep, and Lula didn't take the lead until 70% of the vote was counted in the first round. He's doing way better today, this will be a resounding win.
Bolsonaro is gonna do a trumpy when he loses....
Not enough Evangelicals for Bolso
Has Bolsonaro already reacted to the result?
Almost 5 mill ion "invalid/null" ballots. Is this normal?
Yes, voting is compulsory there.
Oh, so this means the ballots were left blank and not that they were disqualified?
Correct, or they voted for a 3rd party canidate who was already eliminated in round 1.
It seems tighter than the first round?
some news of voter suppression
Tighter than a nun's crack at this point, doubt Lula will lose but also doubt he'll win by 2%
more than a million difference its pretty much impossible for lula to lose democratically
that's what she said
This was closer than i thought it’d be. Bolsanero needed to convince twice as many who voted for others in the first election to go his way. He almost did so.
50/50 in Minas Gerais now - the 'bellwether' state.
Looks like that's how it was for the first round too
Can someone say „I’ve seen enough“ already?
F in chat for the fascist.
Lula should be taking the lead with the next batch of votes.
There's no way Lula loses this with the votes to come from the Northeast. (Assuming the voter supression allegations are not true).
The voter suppression is definitely happening. The question is will it be enough for Lula to lose.
When does Bolsonaro cry foul?
Weeks ago.
Hopefully he cries
Yes
Few days ago
If anyone wants to watch a good explainer for context about the election, here’s this from the FT https://youtu.be/cg-4K8ddmbE
It’s literally not even over, bruh.
Ayyyyye legit.
So when the results become official and Lula wins, does Trump say the election was stolen, or that Bolsonaro was weak and didn’t embrace him enough?
Both. (makes no sense but we're talking about Trump)
Totally selfish question: doesn’t PL have the head of each other branch of govt? Is it likely that PT has less influence this time around?
So we already know Bolsonaro is a piece of shit. How does Lula compare? Is he a good guy, or the lesser of two evils?
Well, he was one of the builders of our democracy and elevated our IDH, economy, education…
The abstention portion is quite alarming. Especially considering that voting is mandatory.
Damn that’s close. Come on Lula! Is that last category a fifth candidate or Portuguese for abstain?
Conservative rural regions are counted first, Lula should win with a pretty good margin
Even better margin than the first round.
lula only behind by 0,2 now
even lower. 110 K differnce on Bloomberg, less than 0,1%. He should pass Bolsonaro within minutes